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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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126 records · Page 7

A knowledge-informed large language model framework for U.S. nuclear power plant shutdown initiating event classification for probabilistic risk assessment

Identifying and classifying shutdown initiating events (SDIEs) is critical for developing shutdown probabilistic risk assessment for nuclear power plants. Existing computational approaches cannot achieve satisfactory performance due to the challenges of unavailable large, labeled datasets, imbalanced event types, and label noise. To address these challenges, we propose a hybrid pipeline that integrates a knowledge-informed machine learning model to prescreen non-SDIEs and a large language model (LLM) to classify SDIEs into four types. In the prescreening stage, we proposed a set of 44 SDIE text patterns that consist of the most salient keywords and phrases from six SDIE types. Text vectorization based on the SDIE patterns generates feature vectors that are highly separable by using a simple binary classifier. The second stage builds Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT)-based LLM, which learns generic English language representations from self-supervised pretraining on a large dataset and adapts to SDIE classification by fine-tuning it on an SDIE dataset. The proposed approaches are evaluated on a dataset with 10,928 events using precision, recall ratio, F 1 score, and average accuracy. In conclusion, the results demonstrate that the prescreening stage can exclude more than 97% non-SDIEs, and the LLM achieves an average accuracy of 95.1% for SDIE classification.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Machine-Learning-Based Adaptive Thinning of CrIS Radiances to Improve Global Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasts

This work is focused on optimizing the assimilation of hyperspectral infrared (IR) radiances from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) with the goal of improving the representation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in global analyses and forecasts. Current operational assimilation systems rely on subsampling IR radiances on a regular thinning grid. A new and improved adaptive methodology based on machine learning (ML) recognizes TCs from geostationary satellite imagery and is implemented in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and data assimilation framework. The ML methodology is extensively trained on existing TC data sets and creates for each TC a dynamic mask, based on the evolving shape and life cycle of that specific event. Once a TC mask is created, a switch is then activated in the data assimilation system to alter the thinning, ingesting more CrIS radiances within the moving mask, thus increasing the TC sampling. After the TC dissipates, the assimilation of CrIS radiances reverts to normal data density. Results of TC segmentation provided by a state-of-the-art generative machine learning model known as the Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM) are compared to the previously used U-Net model. The new approach surpasses the performance of the previously developed one. The methodology is applied to both clear-sky and cloud-cleared radiances. Benefits from the latter methodology, particularly in improving the structure of TCs and the intensity forecasts, are presented.

Oreste Reale↗

CAHS: Context-Aware Homology Search

Protein homology search is foundational to bioinformatics: it supports annotation transfer, structure/function inference, and evolutionary analysis over rapidly expanding sequence repositories (e.g., UniProtKB). Profile hidden Markov models (pHMMs), as implemented in HMMER, remain the most widely trusted approach because they provide statistically calibrated E-values; however, their gap behavior is fixed once a profile is trained, despite biological evidence that insertion/deletion tolerance varies across flexible loops and intrinsically disordered regions. We present CAHS (Context-Aware Homology Search), a lightweight query-time adapter for pHMM search that incorporates learned and biologically motivated signals without changing HMMER's downstream search pipeline or its calibrated E-value reporting. Given a query sequence, CAHS computes per-residue representations from a protein language model and a disorder predictor, maps these to profile coordinates, and modulates only match-state transition rows (gap-open and gap-extension probabilities) while preserving Plan7 constraints. We comprehensively evaluate CAHS across six structurally diverse protein families and multi-domain architectures against a 570k-sequence target corpus. CAHS expands detection capability, retrieving thousands of additional remote homologs at relaxed thresholds by maintaining alignment quality through flexible regions. For multi-domain proteins, context-aware modulation resolves 94% of fragmented alignments. Crucially, CAHS preserves hit-set invariance at stringent operating points (E<10-10), demonstrating increased statistical confidence without inflating false positives. Furthermore, sharper statistical distinction between homologs and background noise during early filter stages yields up to a 3.87× acceleration in end-to-end wall-clock time on high-performance computing clusters. Overall, CAHS illustrates a practical AI-for-science design pattern: augmenting a trusted probabilistic model with query-specific learned signals to improve interpretable, reproducible inference in data-rich biology.

Bhattaram, Swethasree [Georgia Institute of Techno↗

Integrated Medical Model Project - Overview and Summary of Historical Application

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project represents one aspect of NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess medical risks to astronauts for existing operational missions as well as missions associated with future exploration and commercial space flight ventures. The IMM takes a probabilistic approach to assessing the likelihood and specific outcomes of one hundred medical conditions within the envelope of accepted space flight standards of care over a selectable range of mission capabilities. A specially developed Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) maintains evidence-based, organizational knowledge across a variety of data sources. Since becoming operational in 2011, version 3.0 of the IMM, the supporting iMED, and the expertise of the IMM project team have contributed to a wide range of decision and informational processes for the space medical and human research community. This presentation provides an overview of the IMM conceptual architecture and range of application through examples of actual space flight community questions posed to the IMM project. Methods: Figure 1 [see document] illustrates the IMM modeling system and scenario process. As illustrated, the IMM computational architecture is based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment techniques. Nineteen assumptions and limitations define the IMM application domain. Scenario definitions include crew medical attributes and mission specific details. The IMM forecasts probabilities of loss of crew life (LOCL), evacuation (EVAC), quality time lost during the mission, number of medical resources utilized and the number and type of medical events by combining scenario information with in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical information stored in the iMED. In addition, the metrics provide the integrated information necessary to estimate optimized in-flight medical kit contents under constraints of mass and volume or acceptable level of mission risk. Results and Conclusions: Historically, IMM simulations support Science and Technology planning, Exploration mission planning, and ISS program operations by supplying simulation support, iMED data information, and subject matter expertise to Crew Health and Safety and the HRP. Upcoming release of IMM version 4.0 seeks to provide enhanced functionality to increase the quality of risk decisions made using the IMM through a more accurate representation of the real world system.

Myers, J.↗

Tractometry of the Human Connectome Project: resources and insights

The Human Connectome Project (HCP) has become a keystone dataset in human neuroscience, with a plethora of important applications in advancing brain imaging methods and an understanding of the human brain. We focused on tractometry of HCP diffusion-weighted MRI (dMRI) data. We used an open-source software library (pyAFQ; https://yeatmanlab.github.io/pyAFQ) to perform probabilistic tractography and delineate the major white matter pathways in the HCP subjects that have a complete dMRI acquisition (n = 1,041). We used diffusion kurtosis imaging (DKI) to model white matter microstructure in each voxel of the white matter, and extracted tract profiles of DKI-derived tissue properties along the length of the tracts. We explored the empirical properties of the data: first, we assessed the heritability of DKI tissue properties using the known genetic linkage of the large number of twin pairs sampled in HCP. Second, we tested the ability of tractometry to serve as the basis for predictive models of individual characteristics (e.g., age, crystallized/fluid intelligence, reading ability, etc.), compared to local connectome features. To facilitate the exploration of the dataset we created a new web-based visualization tool and use this tool to visualize the data in the HCP tractometry dataset. Finally, we used the HCP dataset as a test-bed for a new technological innovation: the TRX file-format for representation of dMRI-based streamlines. We released the processing outputs and tract profiles as a publicly available data resource through the AWS Open Data program's Open Neurodata repository. We found heritability as high as 0.9 for DKI-based metrics in some brain pathways. We also found that tractometry extracts as much useful information about individual differences as the local connectome method. We released a new web-based visualization tool for tractometry—“Tractoscope” (https://nrdg.github.io/tractoscope). We found that the TRX files require considerably less disk space-a crucial attribute for large datasets like HCP. In addition, TRX incorporates a specification for grouping streamlines, further simplifying tractometry analysis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Fast Computational Algorithms for Partial Differential Equations and Uncertainty Quantifications

This project concerned the construction, testing and analysis of computational algorithms for solving parameterized and stochastic partial differential equations. The study and understanding of equations of this type is of fundamental importance in numerous engineering and scientific applications. Examples include simulation of plasma dynamics in models of electric propulsion and nuclear fusion, simulation of multiphase flows, such as the flow of water, gas and oil in reservoirs, and structural analysis of the dependence of structures on materials. Parametrization is used in such settings when properties of the models such as viscosity of fluids or electric resistivity of materials are not precisely understood and instead are treated as random variables. The resulting solutions are themselves random, and having such solutions will enable engineers to use probabilistic methods to assess the likelihood of events, for example, whether a pollutant in a liquid will exceed a limit, and to use such analyses to develop ways to ensure positive outcomes. Construction of accurate (high resolution) computational solutions is expensive, requiring significant computer time and computational resources, and there is need to reduce computational cost to make simulation useful and effective. The aim of the project was to construct algorithms to efficiently compute surrogate solutions to parameterized problems to allow for efficient and accurate simulation. The technical approach used focused on two related strategies, based on rank-reduction methods and reduced-order models. These methods construct surrogate solutions of parameter-dependent models by projection or interpolation into low-dimensional approximation spaces. Cost savings are achieved if the low-dimensional spaces can be identified and constructed efficiently and if the resulting low-dimensional algebraic systems can be solved cheaply. Accomplishments include: Theoretical and empirical demonstration of the effectiveness of fast multigrid solution strategies for computing low-rank representations of parameter-dependent solutions to discrete partial differential equations, including the first proof establishing so-called textbook convergence properties for low-rank methods. Development of efficient solution algorithms for solving nonlinear parameter-dependent partial differential equations used in models of fluid dynamics. Developent of efficient algorithms for low-rank representation of solutions of time-dependent simulations of fluid dynamics using multi-dimensional tensor representations of solutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA Tech Briefs, January 2007

Topics covered include: Flexible Skins Containing Integrated Sensors and Circuitry; Artificial Hair Cells for Sensing Flows; Video Guidance Sensor and Time-of-Flight Rangefinder; Optical Beam-Shear Sensors; Multiple-Agent Air/Ground Autonomous Exploration Systems; A 640 512-Pixel Portable Long-Wavelength Infrared Camera; An Array of Optical Receivers for Deep-Space Communications; Microstrip Antenna Arrays on Multilayer LCP Substrates; Applications for Subvocal Speech; Multiloop Rapid-Rise/Rapid Fall High-Voltage Power Supply; The PICWidget; Fusing Symbolic and Numerical Diagnostic Computations; Probabilistic Reasoning for Robustness in Automated Planning; Short-Term Forecasting of Radiation Belt and Ring Current; JMS Proxy and C/C++ Client SDK; XML Flight/Ground Data Dictionary Management; Cross-Compiler for Modeling Space-Flight Systems; Composite Elastic Skins for Shape-Changing Structures; Glass/Ceramic Composites for Sealing Solid Oxide Fuel Cells; Aligning Optical Fibers by Means of Actuated MEMS Wedges; Manufacturing Large Membrane Mirrors at Low Cost; Double-Vacuum-Bag Process for Making Resin- Matrix Composites; Surface Bacterial-Spore Assay Using Tb3+/DPA Luminescence; Simplified Microarray Technique for Identifying mRNA in Rare Samples; High-Resolution, Wide-Field-of-View Scanning Telescope; Multispectral Imager With Improved Filter Wheel and Optics; Integral Radiator and Storage Tank; Compensation for Phase Anisotropy of a Metal Reflector; Optical Characterization of Molecular Contaminant Films; Integrated Hardware and Software for No-Loss Computing; Decision-Tree Formulation With Order-1 Lateral Execution; GIS Methodology for Planning Planetary-Rover Operations; Optimal Calibration of the Spitzer Space Telescope; Automated Detection of Events of Scientific Interest; Representation-Independent Iteration of Sparse Data Arrays; Mission Operations of the Mars Exploration Rovers; and More About Software for No-Loss Computing.

Source record↗

Towards Sheaf Theoretic Analyses for Delay Tolerant Networking

The goal of Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) is to take a collection of heterogeneous, disparate connections between satellites, space assets, ground stations, and ground infrastructure and bring it together into a cohesive, functioning overlay network. Depending on the systems being considered, one can find links with a one-way light time exceeding minutes (and hours),periodic links which can sometimes be predicted by orbital mechanics, and restrictions based on the variety of capabilities built into these systems. These characteristics preclude traditional network models and routing techniques and have classically led to either rigid routing tables or purely probabilistic models. As the deeper underlying structures remain unknown, development of more DTN-optimized algorithms has lacked the necessary foundation. In a continuation of previous work, the goal of this paper is to identify and study these fundamental structures that exist in delay tolerant networks (DTN), with a focus on space networks. The current routing methodology has been to use contact graph routing (CGR) algorithms. CGR models a series of known contacts as a static graph. For CGR to work, this graph must be globally consistent and must have an accurate picture of the network. Because this is a globally controlled structure, there is little room for flexibility in the event of changes to the network which would naturally occur as the network grows. As a response to the desire for flexibility as the network changes, we introduced the mathematical structure known as sheaves to DTNs last year. The tag-line for sheaves is that they are a mathematically precise way of gluing local data together into unique global data. Thus, sheaves lend extra power to traditional models(and routing algorithms) by taking additional information and merging it, in as consistent a manner as possible, with the representation itself. The clearest example of how Earth-bound networks exhibit behavior that is “sheafy” is link state routers, which build a local-to-global picture of their network by gluing local information together into a global network, exactly as a sheaf would do. For routing within delay tolerant networks to truly exploit this structure, a deeper structure than a graph is required. In this paper, we develop sheaves that can work over directed graphs such as temporal flow networks, we construct a sheaf representation for Dijkstra’s algorithm, and we outline a construction for routing sheaves capable of modeling multicast scenarios. Finally, there is a section of future work suggesting follow-on research.

Robert Short↗

A resource adequacy assessment of correlated wide-area outages in the power grid

As the power grid is undergoing rapid transformations, numerous questions are emerging about its vulnerability to wide-area extreme events (WAEE), which could influence its operations. Relatively few analyses have been conducted to date regarding the impact of correlated outages during WAEEs on the grid’s ability to balance resources with demand. This study addresses this gap by conducting a resource adequacy analysis for a hurricane-inspired WAEE on a 2035 synthetic power grid system for the United States. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to characterize the relative impact of weather on unserved energy. Our results indicate that although the magnitude and duration of the shortfalls vary depending on weather conditions, persistent shortfalls are observed in some regions. Initial explorations indicate a strong correlation between transmission-constrained regions and regions with persistent shortfalls. Future work could generate empirically-grounded representations for generator outages as well as conduct causal analyses of these shortfalls to improve understanding of drivers as well as possible mitigation strategies. Continued exploration of extreme weather impacts on the grid is important to develop more robust understanding of the reliability and resilience of our power systems, especially as they undergo rapid transformations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Novel Approach to Simulating Diagnostic Capabilities in Medical Resource Risk Assessment

Diagnostics represent a key subset of medical resources considered for helping mitigate and control spaceflight medical risk. Historically, when modeling the medical risk domain for spaceflight, diagnostic resources have been handled like any other medical resource used for treatment. That is to say, the resource being unavailable will result in the related condition having suboptimal treatment outcomes. However in the real world, should a diagnostic resource be unavailable, a more analogous effect would be that the condition might be misdiagnosed, and thus inappropriate treatment applied. This talk presents an alternative means of representing diagnostic resources within the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) that can simulate the effect both in risk, resource consumption, and competition for resources of a missing or depleted diagnostic. The scenario where a differential diagnosis may not be possible for abdominal conditions that use an ultrasound machine as a diagnostic tool is considered. Two approaches for modeling the effect of not having a diagnostic capability on the medical system are demonstrated. In the “simple” approach, it is assumed that any abdominal condition requiring the ultrasound machine for diagnosis is mis-diagnosed and treated as an appendicitis. This is represented by replacing the treatment for the affected conditions with the treatment for appendicitis, thereby changing the optimized medical set available for treatment for the remainder of the mission. In the “complex” approach, MEDPRAT treatment clusters are utilized to capture and represent overlapping treatment between the misdiagnosed condition and appendicitis. This elicits both the effect that inappropriate treatment is applied, resulting in wasted resource consumption, and that treatment which was truly needed for the misdiagnosed condition was not applied, which reduces the treatment effectiveness. In this talk, results comparing the simple and complex diagnostic capability approach to a baseline where the diagnostic is treated as a traditional resource is presented. Either approach provides an option for a more analogous representation of diagnostic resources and provides insight into how the modeled spaceflight medical resources and outcomes change when that diagnostic is unavailable.

C. M. Gasiewski↗

Confronting the Challenge of Modeling Cloud and Precipitation Microphysics

In the atmosphere, microphysics refers to the microscale processes that affect cloud and precipitation particles and is a key linkage among the various components of Earth’s atmospheric water and energy cycles. The representation of microphysical processes in models continues to pose a major challenge leading to uncertainty in numerical weather forecasts and climate simulations. In this paper, the problem of treating microphysics in models is divided into two parts: i) how to represent the population of cloud and precipitation particles, given the impossibility of simulating all particles individually within a cloud, and ii) uncertainties in the microphysical process rates owing to fundamental gaps in knowledge of cloud physics. The recently-developed Lagrangian particle-based method is advocated as a way to address several conceptual and practical challenges of representing particle populations using traditional bulk and bin microphysics parameterization schemes. For addressing critical gaps in cloud physics knowledge, sustained investment for observational advances from laboratory experiments, new probe development, and next-generation instruments in space is needed. Greater emphasis on laboratory work, which has apparently declined over the past several decades relative to other areas of cloud physics research, is argued to be an essential ingredient for improving process-level understanding. More systematic use of natural cloud and precipitation observations to constrain microphysics schemes is also advocated. Because it is generally difficult to quantify individual microphysical process rates from these observations directly, this presents an inverse problem that can be viewed from the standpoint of Bayesian statistics. Following this idea, a probabilistic framework is proposed that combines elements from statistical and physical modeling. Besides providing rigorous constraint of schemes, there is an added benefit of quantifying uncertainty systematically. Finally, a broader hierarchical approach is proposed to accelerate improvements in microphysics schemes, leveraging the advances described in this paper related to process modeling (using Lagrangian particle-based schemes), laboratory experimentation, cloud and precipitation observations, and statistical methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PRIME: A bottom-up approach to probabilistic rule development

PRIME is a system to be used by an intelligent machine to allow it to operate in an abstract but uncertain (or stochastic) environment. It maintains a model of the effects of the machine's actions in the form of a rule base, which is induced from experience. This bottom-up approach to rule development allows the model to adapt to changes in the environment. Each rule consists of a condition under which the rule is active, an action, the effect of the action on the environment, and an estimate of the probability of this effect occurring. The effect probabilities are used to model the uncertainty in the environment, permitting multiple possible effects for a single action under a particular set of conditions. The objective of the intelligent machine is to satisfy user-specified goals with maximum probability of success. PRIME fulfills this requirement in two ways: it continuously updates the rule base with the most recent information, to ensure the validity of the model; and it generates plans which have the maximum probability of achieving the goals, based on the probability estimates in the rule base. PRIME is composed of three main processes: exploration, generalization, and planning. In exploration, the machine executes various randomly chosen actions, observes the effects on the environment, and updates the rule base accordingly. This process is used to develop the rule base in simulation, as well as to supplement the current knowledge during normal operation. Generalization is the procedure used to induce general rules from experience, which is encoded in the form of specific rules. These general rules extend the machine's knowledge to situations which have not been encountered yet, thereby increasing the capability of the machine to plan effectively. Planning is the process of constructing an optimal sequence of actions to satisfy a goal, using the rule base to predict the effects of these actions and to determine the probability of success of the plan. The rule representation and many other data structures were specifically chosen to maximize the efficiency of these processes. A simulated environment was designed to test the performance of PRIME. The results of experimentation were largely negative. The main problem was that the domain coverage of the rules was inadequate for the number of rules stored in the rule base, due to redundancies in general rules and numerous rules covering ineffective actions. It was determined that a more efficient generalization, and some form of goal-directed exploration, are necessary in order to solve most of the current deficiencies in PRIME.

Miller, Scott A.↗

Uncertainties in Local Intense Precipitation Flood Modeling

In the Task 1 report for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) funded Local Intense Precipitation (LIP) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Pilot Study, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) reviewed hydrologic and hydraulic modeling approaches for estimation of LIP flooding and their implementation in readily available simulation software packages (Prasad and Yuan 2020). NRC’s interest is in developing guidance for performing LIP PFHA at nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. This report describes the work done under Task 2 of the study that focused on describing uncertainties associated with LIP flood modeling. Two main types of uncertainties exist in LIP flood modeling: (1) aleatory uncertainties that arise from the inherent natural variability of the hydrometeorological system and (2) epistemic uncertainties that arise from the analysts’ incomplete knowledge of the hydrometeorological and site configuration. Principal sources for aleatory variability in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include precipitation (i.e., magnitude, duration, and temporal distribution of LIP events), initial conditions (e.g., soil moisture content, stormwater drainage discharge, surface storage), boundary conditions (e.g., upstream discharge, downstream water surface elevations), and long-term temporal trends (e.g., climate change). This report describes approaches used for estimating the aleatory variability in precipitation including precipitation-frequency analysis, numerical weather prediction, and stochastic weather generation. Data sources that can be used to estimate aleatory variability in initial and boundary conditions are also described. Approaches to include effects of long-term trends like those from climate change into estimation of aleatory variability are summarized. Sources of epistemic uncertainty in LIP flood simulations at NPP sites include process representation (e.g., multiple approaches to represent runoff generation, stormwater drainage, and hydraulic routing), site configurations (e.g., site layout, flow features, status of temporary flood protection, blockage of drains), model resolution, and long-term temporal trends (e.g., known/planned site alterations, land-use changes at and in the vicinity of the site). The report describes alternative process representations (methods and models), particularly those implemented in the LIP flood simulation software packages reviewed in Task 1 report, and lists the associated model parameters. Approaches for estimating model parameters when surface and subsurface water exchanges occur are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗

ComStock™ 2024 Release 1 [SWR-19-33 and SWR-20-32]

ComStock™ is an NREL model of the U.S. commercial building stock. The model takes some building characteristics from the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Commercial Prototype Building Models and Commercial Reference Building. However, unlike many other building stock models, ComStock also combines these with a variety of additional public- and private-sector data sets. Collectively, this information provides high-fidelity building stock representation with a realistic diversity of building characteristics. This repository contains the source code used to build and execute ComStock models, including upgrade scenarios. In addition, the sampling of buildings characteristics used for the initial ComStock (V1.0) release is provided. The ComStock model is under active calibration and development, which is publicly visible on this repository. Execution of the ComStock workflow is managed through the buildstockbatch repository, a shared asset of ResStock™ and ComStock™ , specifically developed to scale to execution of tens of millions of simulations through multiple infrastructure providers. The dataset output from the initial ComStock (V1.0) release can be found at the accompanying ComStock data viewer website and additional information about ComStock found on the NREL Buildings Website. For more details about ongoing model development please consult the End Use Load Profiles website. ComStock is a direct result of the NREL residential stock modeling tool ResStock™ (recipient of a R&D100 award) and was inspired by the high-fidelity solar & storage adoption model dGen™. Additionally, this tool would not be possible without the decades of work undertaken by the OpenStudio® and EnergyPlus® visionaries and contributors, significant funding, feedback and support from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, and the Department of Energy's Building Technology Office ongoing support of and investment in building energy modeling software. is an analytic methodology for modeling the energy usage of the commercial building stock within the United States of America. The commercial building stock is represented through a sampling of complex probabilistic distributions of various features of interest for modeling energy usage within commercial buildings. Each sample from these distributions is converted into a building energy model based on the features of that specific sample. Each building energy model can be simulated as is, but additional changes can be made to the model through addition of energy conservation measures, component faults, or other desired alterations. The results of the simulations are then processed to provide insights for various stakeholders, including but not limited to policy makers, engineers, and marketers.

Horsey, Henry↗

Exact block encoding of imaginary time evolution with universal quantum neural networks

We develop a constructive approach to generate quantum neural networks capable of representing the exact thermal states of all many-body qubit Hamiltonians. The Trotter expansion of the imaginary time propagator is implemented through an exact block encoding by means of a unitary, restricted Boltzmann machine architecture. Marginalization over the hidden-layer neurons (auxiliary qubits) creates the nonunitary action on the visible layer. Then, we introduce a unitary deep Boltzmann machine architecture in which the hidden-layer qubits are allowed to couple laterally to other hidden qubits. We prove that this wave-function is closed under the action of the imaginary time propagator and, more generally, can represent the action of a universal set of quantum gate operations. We provide analytic expressions for the coefficients for both architectures, thus enabling exact network representations of thermal states without stochastic optimization of the network parameters. In the limit of large imaginary time, the yields the ground state of the system. The number of qubits grows linearly with the number of interactions and total imaginary time for a fixed interaction order. Both networks can be readily implemented on quantum hardware via midcircuit measurements of auxiliary qubits. If only one auxiliary qubit is measured and reset, the circuit depth scales linearly with imaginary time and number of interactions, while the width is constant. Alternatively, one can employ a number of auxiliary qubits linearly proportional to the number of interactions, and circuit depth grows linearly with imaginary time only. Every midcircuit measurement has a postselection success probability, and the overall success probability is equal to the product of the probabilities of the midcircuit measurements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multidimensional Distributional Neural Network Output Demonstrated in Super‐Resolution of Surface Wind Speed

Accurate quantification of uncertainty in neural network predictions remains a central challenge for scientific applications involving high-dimensional, correlated data. While existing methods capture either aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty, few offer closed-form, multidimensional distributions that preserve spatial correlation while remaining computationally tractable. In this work, we present a framework for training neural networks with a multidimensional Gaussian loss, generating a closed-form predictive distribution over outputs informed by non-identically distributed training data. Our approach captures aleatoric uncertainty by iteratively estimating the means and covariance matrices, and is demonstrated on a super-resolution example out-of-training-sample. We leverage a Fourier representation of the covariance matrix to stabilize network training and preserve spatial correlation. We introduce a novel regularization strategy—referred to as information sharing—that interpolates between image-specific and global covariance estimates, enabling convergence of the super-resolution downscaling network trained on image-specific distributional loss functions. This framework allows for efficient sampling, explicit correlation modeling, and extensions to more complex distribution families all without disrupting prediction performance. We demonstrate the method on a surface wind speed downscaling task and discuss its broader applicability to uncertainty-aware prediction in scientific models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series: Supporting Data

This dataset consists of soil temperature time series that were used to estimate soil thermal diffusivity and its uncertainty trough the probabilistic modelling approach developed and presented in the article named "Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series" and published in Earth Surface Dynamics. There are two compressed (.zip) files that contains synthetic (Synthetic_soiltemp_Teller.zip) and field (Field_soiltemp_Teller.zip) data. There is one MATLAB file that requires MATLAB to execute but any text editor can open it. The Synthetic_soiltemp_Teller.zip file includes 5 comma-delimited data files (.csv) each of which contains soil temperature time series generated through forward modeling (i.e., heat-conduction process in a heterogeneous medium using an explicit finite difference method) to mimic various types of temperature gradients, trend and fluctuations. These synthetic soil temperatures were used to investigate the impact of different environmental conditions on the uncertainty of thermal diffusivity estimates. The Field_soiltemp_Teller.zip file contains 28 comma-delimited data files (.csv) out of which (a) 27 files includes soil temperature time series recorded from 27 temperature probes located in a site along Teller Road about 40 km northwest of Nome, Alaska (64.72°N, 165.94°W), (b) one includes the name and coordinates of the 27 probes. These field soil temperatures were used to infer soil thermal diffusivity at numerous locations and depths in a discontinuous permafrost environment, and to evaluate the links between the estimated soil thermal diffusivity values and soil physical properties. The comma-delimited data files (.csv) of the synthetic and field soil temperature time series includes date and time (UTC) in the first column and soil temperature from 5 cm below the ground surface to 1.05 m depth (with 5 or 10 cm spacing between sensors) in the other columns. The measurements were acquired every 15 minutes. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving the Fidelity of Capability & Resource Weighting in A Probalistic Risk Assessment Model for Spaceflight

INTRODUCTION NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to provide an evidence-based, data-driven estimate of how medical system capabilities affect mission outcomes. IMPACT maps condition incidence to available resources thereby facilitating the calculation of outcome metrics that allow the estimation of mission medical risk. Conditions can be nominally categorized as either treated or untreated depending on the availability of necessary diagnostic and therapeutic capabilities. This categorization enables IMPACT to estimate the effect of various medical system configurations on mission outcomes such as crew mortality, disability, crew member down-time, return to duty/recovery, and need for evacuation. IMPACT currently employs an equal weighting, “partial credit” approach to define treatment in which each of the capabilities associated with a given condition contributes an equal amount to management of the condition. This feature enables IMPACT to report values in between “fully untreated” and “fully treated” based on the proportion of capabilities available within the model. However, as is normal in medical/clinical practice, not all individual capabilities contribute equally to medical care. For example, the ability to provide intramuscular epinephrine during an anaphylactic episode contributes more likelihood of overall management success than does the administration of oral diphenhydramine. We hypothesize that weighting the relative contribution of each capability to each specific condition will improve outcome prediction and therefore will better provide mission planners with more nuanced and accurate options when designing space medical systems. METHODS Using a five-point Fibonacci scaling sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8) subject matter experts from NASA’s Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) element assigned relative contribution weighting values to each identified capability within IMPACT. Since the relative importance of each capability varies depending on the specific condition, the resulting “partial” weighting was completed for more than 1,600 individual weighting assignments for 666 capabilities across 121 conditions. Each assignment required three-physician concurrence based on the overall importance of the capability to the diagnosis and management of the condition being considered and the difficulty with which it could be improvised by the crew. Once complete, 100,000 IMPACT simulations were run for a 6-month Lunar mission with a 30-day surface stay to evaluate the effect of this modification of the model. RESULTS Partial weighting significantly decreased predicted task time loss (TTL), evacuation, and loss of crew life without causing significant changes to the recommended medical system design. CONCLUSIONS The paucity of real-world referent data to support long-duration space missions of this type limits the ability to judge one predictive analytics method as superior to another. However, since the proposed method significantly reduces and optimizes outcome risks—without changing the medical system design—incorporating a partial weighting methodology is likely to provide a more accurate and operationally-relevant representation of medical risk without compromising IMPACTs ability to inform overarching medical system requirements.

Steller JG↗