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NASA NTRS2016

Exploring the Science Trade Space with the JPL Innovation Foundry A-Team

The JPL Innovation Foundry has established a new approach for exploring, developing, and evaluating early concepts with a group called the Architecture Team (A-Team). The A-Team combines innovative collaborative methods and facilitated sessions with subject matter experts and analysis tools to help mature mission concepts. Science, implementation, and programmatic elements are all considered during an ATeam study. In these studies, Concept Maturity Levels (CML) are used to group methods. These levels include idea generation and capture (CML 1), initial feasibility assessment (CML 2), and trade space exploration (CML 3). Methods used for exploring the science objectives, feasibility, and scope will be described including use of a new technique for understanding the most compelling science, called a Science Return Diagram (SRD). In the process of developing the SRD, gradients in the science trade space are uncovered along with their implications for implementation and mission architecture. Special attention is paid towards developing complete investigations, establishing a series of logical claims that lead to the natural selection of a measurement approach. Over 20 science-focused A-Team studies have used these techniques to help science teams refine their mission objectives, make implementation decisions and reveal the mission concept’s most compelling science. This paper will describe the A-Team process for exploring the mission concept's science trade space and the Science Return Diagram technique.In June of 2011 a new collaborative engineering approach forearly concept formulation began in the JPL InnovationFoundry [1], six months later becoming the “A-Team” [2].Responding to a need for exploring mission architecturelevel trades [3], the A-Team precedes Team X [4,5] in asequence of concurrent engineering teams at JPL that can beused to mature a concept from a “cocktail napkin” level ideato a complete mission point design. The A-Team efficientlyexplores the science, implementation, and programmatictrade space in early concept formulation. Small, facilitatedgroups of experts generate innovative ideas, quantitativelyassess feasibility, and discover key sensitivities in the tradespace through collaborative analysis and use of advancedmethods and tools. The A-Team process builds off theexperience within JPL and other recent approaches to earlyconcept formulation [6] including best practices of the JPLInnovation Foundry, Project Systems Engineering &Formulation Section, Team Eureka and the Rapid MissionArchitecture Team[7].The A-Team is a focal point for innovative formulationapproaches and people within JPL. It relies on a largebackground of study resources, creative thinkers and “greybeard” scrutinizers, advanced tools, and subject matterexperts with both breadth and depth in experience andexpertise that are all available at JPL. The A-Team isdesigned to be a rapid and efficient process takingapproximately 6 weeks (the entire process can be as short asjust a few days or as long as up to three months) and costingthe equivalent of a work-month of a full-time employee orless. Studies begin with detailed planning and client reviewfollowed by study sessions, analysis work, and reporting.The staffing on each study is customized to the study goalsand objectives, and it is addressed early in the A-Teamprocess. Sessions are generally half-day or whole-day eventsand conducted over a series of days with focused agendas thatare moderated by a trained facilitator. Preliminary results andknowledge capture are available within hours of each session,and a final report is generally available two weeks later.One of the biggest challenges facing early conceptdevelopment is understanding the gradient in science returnversus various available mission scenarios and payload options. Often times, major areas of scientific inquiry havealready been prioritized by science groups, including throughthe National Research Council’s Decadal Studies inAstronomy, Planetary, and Earth Science. Yet science teamscontinue to struggle, especially in competitive missionsolicitations, to capture the right amount of scope that’sachievable within the cost constraints of the opportunity.Often the desire to completely and comprehensively study ascience area in just one mission (after all, true missionopportunities are rare) drives teams to take on too much,providing requirements that are unachievable within theresources of the opportunity without inducing unacceptableimplementation risk. Alternatively, science teams can seekto reduce risk by using an established instrument, but havenot thought through the traceability and key aspects of thescience question to justify its use. Both scenarios lead to badassumptions at the beginning of the concept development thatcan then ripple through implementation option choices,potentially preventing what would have been a good scienceinvestigation from being selected.The purpose of this paper is first to provide some additionalbackground and summary of the A-Team process, tools,people, and facilities. We then focus on the A-Teammethodology for overcoming the barriers of defining thescience scope well at the early concept development stage.This includes understanding the science story andtraceability, and then examining the gradient in science returnversus key characteristics of observables, developing theright payload and mission requirement specification throughexamining the science and implementation trade space.

Ziemer, John K.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Spatial Variability in Column CO2 Inferred from High Resolution GEOS-5 Global Model Simulations: Implications for Remote Sensing and Inversions

Column CO2 observations from current and future remote sensing missions represent a major advancement in our understanding of the carbon cycle and are expected to help constrain source and sink distributions. However, data assimilation and inversion methods are challenged by the difference in scale of models and observations. OCO-2 footprints represent an area of several square kilometers while NASA s future ASCENDS lidar mission is likely to have an even smaller footprint. In contrast, the resolution of models used in global inversions are typically hundreds of kilometers wide and often cover areas that include combinations of land, ocean and coastal areas and areas of significant topographic, land cover, and population density variations. To improve understanding of scales of atmospheric CO2 variability and representativeness of satellite observations, we will present results from a global, 10-km simulation of meteorology and atmospheric CO2 distributions performed using NASA s GEOS-5 general circulation model. This resolution, typical of mesoscale atmospheric models, represents an order of magnitude increase in resolution over typical global simulations of atmospheric composition allowing new insight into small scale CO2 variations across a wide range of surface flux and meteorological conditions. The simulation includes high resolution flux datasets provided by NASA s Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project at half degree resolution that have been down-scaled to 10-km using remote sensing datasets. Probability distribution functions are calculated over larger areas more typical of global models (100-400 km) to characterize subgrid-scale variability in these models. Particular emphasis is placed on coastal regions and regions containing megacities and fires to evaluate the ability of coarse resolution models to represent these small scale features. Additionally, model output are sampled using averaging kernels characteristic of OCO-2 and ASCENDS measurement concepts to create realistic pseudo-datasets. Pseudo-data are averaged over coarse model grid cell areas to better understand the ability of measurements to characterize CO2 distributions and spatial gradients on both short (daily to weekly) and long (monthly to seasonal) time scales

Ott, L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Simulating the Effect of Space Vehicle Environments on Directional Solidification of a Binary Alloy

Space microgravity missions are designed to provide a microgravity environment for scientific experiments, but these missions cannot provide a perfect environment, due to vibrations caused by crew activity, on-board experiments, support systems (pumps, fans, etc.), periodic orbital maneuvers, and water dumps. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the impact of these vibrations on space experiments, prior to performing them. Simulations were conducted to study the effect of the vibrations on the directional solidification of a dendritic alloy. Finite element ca!cu!attie?ls were dme with a simd2titcr based on a continuum model of dendritic solidification, using the Fractional Step Method (FSM). The FSM splits the solution of the momentum equation into two steps: the viscous intermediate step, which does not enforce continuity; and the inviscid projection step, which calculates the pressure and enforces continuity. The FSM provides significant computational benefits for predicting flows in a directionally solidified alloy, compared to other methods presently employed, because of the efficiency gains in the uncoupled solution of velocity and pressure. finite differences, arises when the interdendritic liquid reaches the eutectic temperature and concentration. When a node reaches eutectic temperature, it is assumed that the solidification of the eutectic liquid continues at constant temperature until all the eutectic is solidified. With this approach, solidification is not achieved continuously across an element; rather, the element is not considered solidified until the eutectic isotherm overtakes the top nodes. For microgravity simulations, where the convection is driven by shrinkage, it introduces large variations in the fluid velocity. When the eutectic isotherm reaches a node, all the eutectic must be solidified in a short period, causing an abrupt increase in velocity. To overcome this difficulty, we employed a scheme to numerically predict a more accurate value for the rate of change of fraction of liquid as the liquid in an element solidifies. The new method enables us to contrast results of simulations in which the alloy is subjected to no gravity or a steady-state acceleration versus simulations when the alloy is subjected to vibration disturbances; therefore, the effect of vibration disturbances can be assessed more accurately. To assess the impact of these vibration-perturbations, transient accelerometer data from a space shuttle mission are used as inputs for the simulation model. These on-orbit acceleration data were obtained from the Microgravity Science Division at Glenn Research Center (GRC- MSD) and are applied to the buoyancy term of the momentum equation in a simulation of a Pb-5.8 wt. % Sb alloy that solidifies in a thermal gradient of 4000 K/m and a translation velocity of 3 p d s . Figure 2 shows the vertical velocity of a node that begins in the all-liquid region and subsequently solidifies; the vibrations are applied at 5000 seconds in this simulation. An important difficulty, common to all solidification models based on finite elements or 2 The magnitudes of the velocity oscillations that are vibration-induced are very small and acceptable. The biggest concern is whether the concentration of the liquid near the dendrite tips is distorted because of the vibration-induced perturbations. Results for this case show no concentration oscillations present in the all-liquid region.

Westra, D. G.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied by a regional reduction in total cloud cover. This decrease in cloudiness can primarily be ascribed to low level clouds, whereas the upper level cloud fraction actually increases, according to ISCCP. Independent satellite observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are consistent with the changes in total cloud cover. The shift in cloudiness is also supported by a shift in central position of the mid-troposphere meridional temperature gradient. We do not find support for aerosols playing a significant role in the satellite observed changes in cloudiness. The observed changes in storm track cloudiness can be related to local cloud-induced changes in radiative forcing, using ERBE and CERES radiative fluxes. The shortwave and the longwave components are found to act together, leading to a positive (warming) net radiative effect in response to the cloud changes in the storm track regions, indicative of positive cloud feedback. Among the CMIP3 models that simulate poleward shifts in all four storm track areas, all but one show decreasing cloud amount on a global mean scale in response to increased CO2 forcing, further consistent with positive cloud feedback. Models with low equilibrium climate sensitivity to a lesser extent than higher-sensitivity models simulate a poleward shift of the storm tracks.

Bender, Frida A-M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

The NASA Low-Pressure Turbine Flow Physics Program

An overview of the NASA Lewis Low-Pressure Turbine (LPT) Flow Physics Program will be presented. The program was established in response to the aero-engine industry's need for improved LPT efficiency and designs. Modern jet engines have four to seven LPT stages, significantly contributing to engine weight. In addition, there is a significant efficiency degradation between takeoff and cruise conditions, of up to 2 points. Reducing the weight and part count of the LPT and minimizing the efficiency degradation will translate into fuel savings. Accurate prediction methods of LPT flows and losses are needed to accomplish those improvements. The flow in LPT passages is at low Reynolds number, and is dominated by interplay of three basic mechanisms: transition, separation and wake interaction. The affecting parameters traditionally considered are Reynolds number, freestream turbulence intensity, wake frequency parameter, and the pressure distribution (loading). Three-dimensional effects and additional parameters, particularly turbulence characteristics like length scales, spectra and other statistics, as well as wake turbulence intensity and properties also play a role. The flow of most interest is on the suction surface, where large losses are generated as the flow tends to separate at the low Reynolds numbers. Ignoring wakes, a common flow scenario, there is laminar separation, followed by transition on the separation bubble and turbulent reattachment. If transition starts earlier the separation will be eliminated and the boundary layer will be attached leading to the well known bypass transition issues. In contrast, transition over a separation bubble is closer to free shear layer transition and was not investigated as well, particularly in the turbine environment. Unsteadiness created by wakes complicates the picture. Wakes induce earlier transition, and the calmed regions trailing the induced turbulent spots can delay or eliminate separation via shear stress modification. Three-dimensional flow physics and geometry will have strong effects. Altogether a very complex and challenging problem emerges. The objective of the program is to provide improved models and physical understanding of the complex flow, which are essential for accurate prediction of flow and losses in the LPT. Experimental, computational and analytical work as complementing and augmenting approaches are used. The program involves industry, universities and research institutes, and other government laboratories. It is characterized by strong interaction among participants, quick dissemination of results, and responsiveness to industry's needs. The presentation will describe the work elements. Highlighting some activities in progress are experiments on simulated blade suction surface in low-speed wind tunnels, on curved wall, and on a flat-plate, both with pressure gradient. In the area of computation, assessment of existing models is performed using RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes) simulations. Laminar flow DNS was completed. Analytical studies of instability and receptivity in attached and separated flows were started. In the near future the program is moving to include wake effects and development of improved modeling. Experimental work in preparation stages are: (1) Addition of wakes to the curved tunnel experiment; (2) Low-speed rotating rig experiment on GE90 engine LPT; and (3) Transonic cascade. In the area of computation, it is expected to move from model assessment towards development of improved models. In addition, a new project of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of LPT is to begin and will provide numerical data bases. It is planned to implement the emerging improved models in a multistage turbomachinery code and to validate against the GE90 engine LPT.

Ashpis, David E.↗