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116 records · Page 7

Development of a Framework for Data Integration, Assimilation, and Learning for Geological Carbon Sequestration (DIAL-GCS) (Final Report)

This project aimed to develop and demonstrate a Data Integration, Assimilation, and Learning framework for geologic carbon sequestration projects (DIAL-GCS). DIAL-GCS is an intelligence monitoring system (IMS) for automating GCS closed-loop management by leveraging recent developments in machine learning technologies, complex event processing (CEP), and reduced-order modeling. The safe and efficient operation of GCS repositories requires integrated monitoring to track the injected CO¬2 as it moves within a storage reservoir. GCS projects are data intensive, as a result of proliferation of digital instrumentation and smart-sensing technologies. GCS projects are also resource intensive, often requiring multidisciplinary teams performing different monitoring, verification, accounting (MVA) tasks throughout the lifecycle of a project to ensure secure containment of injected CO2. The success of GCS thus depends in a large part on our ability to access, assimilate, and analyze heterogeneous data and information sources in a timely manner. This project included a number of meaningful and necessary tasks to transform the human domain knowledge into machine-interpretable rules for automating knowledge extraction and discovery in GCS. The specific technical objectives of the proposed DIAL-GCS project were to develop an ontology-driven GCS data management module for storing, querying, and exchanging GCS data (both historic and live sensor data) from multiple sources and in heterogeneous formats. Incorporate a CEP engine for detecting abnormal situations by seamlessly combining expert knowledge, rule-based reasoning, and machine learning. Enable uncertainty quantification and predictive analytics using a combination of coupled-process modeling, AI/ML methods, and reduced-order modeling, and integrate and demonstrate the system’s capabilities with both real and simulated data. As far as we know, this is one of the first projects aimed to develop intelligent monitoring systems (IMS) targeting the GCS. Under this project, the team had developed a large number of web applications and scientific algorithms that contribute the main theme of intelligent monitoring. The team has published more than a dozen peer reviewed papers and disseminated the research results at multiple technical meetings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Beating the Auditors: Comparing Doping in Sport to Nuclear Proliferators

The Berlinger Bottle (Figure 1, below) is the central part of the BEREG-Kit that has been used by anti-doping agencies worldwide for over 25 years. As documented in the World Anti-Doping Agency’s investigative report [Ref 1], in 2014, Russian state-level actors found ways to defeat these bottles and was able to secretly replace an athlete’s drug-laced urine with clean urine samples that had been collected earlier. This cheating scheme allowed rampant performance enhancing drug use by its athletes, and (before disqualifications) earned Russia 33 medals in the 2014 Sochi Olympics – more than double its haul of 15 medals at the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver. All this activity was conducted despite the watchful eye of the World Anti-Doping Agency. Similarly, Lance Armstrong and the US Postal Team infamously used performance enhancing drugs and blood transfusions to win 7 Tour de France titles (again, before disqualification) in a row, all under the supervision of L’Union Cycliste Internationale (UCI) and the US Anti Doping Agency. The inspection role of anti-doping agencies is similar in scope to the role of a Safeguards Inspector with the International Atomic Energy Agency: detect the misuse of facilities, and conduct scheduled and randomized testing to detect and deter would-be cheaters. This paper will explore the motivation, the means, and the mistakes which led to discovery – and will draw out commonalities between those who seek to cheat in sports, and those who seek to undermine international nuclear safeguards as Iraq tried in the 1980s.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

The leucine-rich repeats in allelic barley MLA immune receptors define specificity towards sequence-unrelated powdery mildew avirulence effectors with a predicted common RNase-like fold

Nucleotide-binding domain leucine-rich repeat-containing receptors (NLRs) in plants can detect avirulence (AVR) effectors of pathogenic microbes. The Mildew locus a (Mla) NLR gene has been shown to confer resistance against diverse fungal pathogens in cereal crops. In barley, Mla has undergone allelic diversification in the host population and confers isolate-specific immunity against the powdery mildew-causing fungal pathogen Blumeria graminis forma specialis hordei (Bgh). We previously isolated the Bgh effectors AVR A1 , AVR A7 , AVR A9 , AVR A13 , and allelic AVR A10 /AVR A22 , which are recognized by matching MLA1, MLA7, MLA9, MLA13, MLA10 and MLA22, respectively. Here, we extend our knowledge of the Bgh effector repertoire by isolating the AVR A6 effector, which belongs to the family of catalytically inactive RNase-Like Proteins expressed in Haustoria (RALPHs). Using structural prediction, we also identified RNase-like folds in AVR A1 , AVR A7 , AVR A10 /AVR A22 , and AVR A13 , suggesting that allelic MLA recognition specificities could detect structurally related avirulence effectors. To better understand the mechanism underlying the recognition of effectors by MLAs, we deployed chimeric MLA1 and MLA6, as well as chimeric MLA10 and MLA22 receptors in plant co-expression assays, which showed that the recognition specificity for AVR A1 and AVR A6 as well as allelic AVR A10 and AVR A22 is largely determined by the receptors’ C-terminal leucine-rich repeats (LRRs). The design of avirulence effector hybrids allowed us to identify four specific AVR A10 and five specific AVR A22 aa residues that are necessary to confer MLA10- and MLA22-specific recognition, respectively. This suggests that the MLA LRR mediates isolate-specific recognition of structurally related AVR A effectors. Thus, functional diversification of multi-allelic MLA receptors may be driven by a common structural effector scaffold, which could be facilitated by proliferation of the RALPH effector family in the pathogen genome.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Select Proliferation Studies on TRISO-fueled, Heat-Pipe-cooled Microreactors

Nuclear microreactors carry the potential to open up new markets for the nuclear industry, as their expected cost competitiveness in non-traditional market segments (e.g., mines, military bases, extraterrestrial surfaces, and remote areas), and their inherent safety features make them deployable when other power sources are unavailable or difficult to exploit. For countries that have not traditionally participated in nuclear power, microreactors represent a clean energy solution [1]. However, their use, especially in non-weapons states, may entail challenges in terms of maintaining international nuclear safeguards [2]. Furthermore, the deployment locations where microreactors may prove most cost competitive would be difficult to access by state and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors [3]. In addition to the isolated nature of potential deployment sites, the low-power characteristic of microreactors suggests that numerous microreactors would need to be deployed to meet energy demands. That, coupled with the unique physics of many current microreactor designs, opens up a new area of research with respect to nonproliferation and safeguards concerns [2]. Whereas traditional facilities are inspected as isolated cases when looking for signs of diversion or misuse; microreactors may need to be assessed in the context of the entire fleet to which they belong. International safeguards necessitate timely detection of any significant quantities (SQs) of material that are being diverted (e.g., 1 SQ of special nuclear material diverted over the course of a 1-year period) [4]. For low-enriched uranium, the IAEA defines 1 SQ as corresponding to 75 kg of 235U. The purpose of the present paper is to explore the detectability threshold for material diversion in microreactors by relying on critical control drum angles, excess reactivity, and the reactor lifetime as the selected operational parameters. For this assessment, a heat-pipe-cooled microreactor was regarded as the base design. While the conclusions reached in this paper are not readily extendable to the design of actual microreactors, the analysis herein enables conclusions to be drawn regarding the level of accuracy needed for reference calculations in order to detect diversion scenarios by utilizing the selected operational parameters (i.e., mainly control drum angles, critical insertion angle, and the reactor lifetime).

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Modeling 233 Pa Generation in Thorium-fueled Reactors for Safeguards

Thorium has been considered as a possible alternative to uranium for nuclear fuel for many decades. It is three to four times more abundant in the earth than uranium and produces significantly less long-lived transuranic nuclear waste. Some claim thorium poses fewer proliferation concerns than other fuel types largely due to 232 U buildup (and associated high energy gamma-emitting decay products) in the irradiated thorium fuel. However, to fully explore potential proliferation concerns, generation and subsequent decay of 233 Pa produced in the reactor core still must be studied. With its half-life of 27 days, 233 Pa decays to 233 U, which is an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) defined special fissionable material that can be used for nuclear weapons production. With more research being dedicated to thorium-fueled reactors, and several of these reactor designs possessing online fuel processing (allowing for on-site protactinium separation), it is important to understand this potential proliferation pathway. In particular, it is theoretically possible to extract protactinium from the irradiated fuel salt before it decays into 233 U. This hypothetical potential diversion can become an even greater proliferation concern if the extracted protactinium is purified through a second separation of protactinium approximately ten days later to remove the short half-life decay products of 232 Pa and 234 Pa, thus resulting in a higher concentration of the 233 Pa isotope, which decays into weapons usable 233 U with hardly any 232 U or 234 U in it. To estimate the concern of this potential proliferation challenge of thorium, different nuclear material accountancy techniques were reviewed for their viability to quantify 233 Pa if extracted from used thorium fuel. Characteristics of interest included technology maturity, cost, precision, and time taken to acquire results. Some technologies, like hybrid K-edge densitometry and passive gamma spectroscopy, appear to be viable techniques based on current literature. Due to the limited scope of this project, only passive gamma spectroscopy was further investigated. Three different reactor types (PWR, CANDU, MSR) were modeled with mixed thorium-uranium oxide fuels that were burned until the fuel was spent. The protactinium in the used fuel was extracted at the time of shutdown and the change in isotopic content of the protactinium quantified. Gamma spectroscopy simulations were performed for the protactinium isotopes and their decay products at various decay times. Given the simplicity of the models and large assumptions made (e.g. no background, no shielding, no self-attenuation), the initial results indicate that though 233 Pa is detectible for all the reactor types modeled at all decay times (0 to 300 days), more work should be done with higher fidelity models.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Portal Monitoring Considerations for Treaty Verification Applications

Portal monitoring is one method in a suite of options for treaty verification and can assist in verification of treaty accountable items (TAIs). Portal monitor technology spans a wide range of sensors, including radiation detectors, break-beams, or weight sensors. For radiation-detecting portal monitors, they are able to confirm absence / presence of a radiological signature and to track TAI direction of motion. Portal monitoring uses measurements from strategically placed sensors (e.g., radiation detectors) to record the entry or egress of TAIs. The implementation of portal monitoring relies on three key elements: perimeter definition, portal locations, and sensor technology, and can be implemented in either time-bound or continuous operations depending on what is permitted by the Treaty.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Explosive Byproduct Gas Transport Through Sorptive Geomedia

Current underground nuclear explosion (UNE) detection strategies rely heavily on atmospheric noble gas sampling of radioxenon. However, discriminating nuclear weapons testing programs from civilian sources is difficult due to highly variable atmospheric radioxenon backgrounds and processes affecting subsurface transport of parent radionuclides. Here, we aim to study the transport of gases produced by subsurface explosions as novel stable signatures for underground nuclear explosion (UNE) monitoring. These gases may be produced in large quantities with distinct molecular ratios, which will be impacted by subsurface transport processes. To demonstrate how ratios of gases produced by explosions can change during transport in geomaterials, we conducted laboratory benchtop experiments on the transport of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and hydrogen (H 2 ) gases through variably saturated zeolitic tuff, which is abundant at the historic US testing site. We observed that zeolitic tuff sorbs substantial quantities of CO 2 while allowing H 2 to transport more freely, leading to changes in the molecular ratios of the two gases along the transport pathway. Gas uptake in the dry zeolitic tuff core was 72.3% for CO 2 , compared with 53.4% for xenon and 7.6% for H 2 . The presence of 20% water saturation disrupted the CO 2 sorption process, though to a lesser extent than observed for noble gases, with a 36.7% drop in xenon sorption compared with a 21.9% drop for CO 2 . These results represent the first observations of zeolite sorption altering explosive gas ratios during transport through geomedia relevant to nuclear proliferation monitoring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forbidden scalar dark matter and dark Higgses

As experimental searches for WIMP dark matter continue to yield null results, models beyond the WIMP paradigm have proliferated in order to elude ever improving observational constraints, among them that of sub-GeV dark matter mediated by a massive vector portal (a dark photon) associated with a new dark U(1) gauge symmetry. It has been previously noted that for a significant range of the parameter space of this class of models, the annihilation of dark matter particles into a pair of dark photons can dominate the freeze-out process even when this process is kinematically forbidden for dark matter at rest — this is known as the “forbidden dark matter” (FDM) regime. Prior studies of this regime, however, assume that any “dark Higgs” associated with breaking the dark U(1) and imparting mass to the dark photon is decoupled from the dark matter and as such plays no role in the freeze-out process. In this paper, we explore the effects of a dark Higgs on sub-GeV dark matter phenomenology in this FDM regime by considering the simplest possible construction in which there exist non-trivial dark matter-dark Higgs couplings: a model with a single complex scalar DM candidate coupled directly to the dark Higgs field. We find that for a wide range of parameter space, the dark Higgs can alter the resulting relic abundance by many orders of magnitude, and that this effect can remain significant even for a small dark matter-dark Higgs coupling constant. Considering measurements from direct detection and measurements of the CMB, we further find that points in this model’s parameter space which recreate the appropriate dark matter relic abundance suffer only mild constraints from other sources at present, but may become accessible in near-future direct detection experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗