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NASA NTRS2004

Evaluation and Application of Satellite-Based Latent Heating Profile Estimation Methods

In recent years, methods for estimating atmospheric latent heating vertical structure from both passive and active microwave remote sensing have matured to the point where quantitative evaluation of these methods is the next logical step. Two approaches for heating algorithm evaluation are proposed: First, application of heating algorithms to synthetic data, based upon cloud-resolving model simulations, can be used to test the internal consistency of heating estimates in the absence of systematic errors in physical assumptions. Second, comparisons of satellite-retrieved vertical heating structures to independent ground-based estimates, such as rawinsonde-derived analyses of heating, provide an additional test. The two approaches are complementary, since systematic errors in heating indicated by the second approach may be confirmed by the first. A passive microwave and combined passive/active microwave heating retrieval algorithm are evaluated using the described approaches. In general, the passive microwave algorithm heating profile estimates are subject to biases due to the limited vertical heating structure information contained in the passive microwave observations. These biases may be partly overcome by including more environment-specific a priori information into the algorithm s database of candidate solution profiles. The combined passive/active microwave algorithm utilizes the much higher-resolution vertical structure information provided by spaceborne radar data to produce less biased estimates; however, the global spatio-temporal sampling by spaceborne radar is limited. In the present study, the passive/active microwave algorithm is used to construct a more physically-consistent and environment-specific set of candidate solution profiles for the passive microwave algorithm and to help evaluate errors in the passive algorithm s heating estimates. Although satellite estimates of latent heating are based upon instantaneous, footprint- scale data, suppression of random errors requires averaging to at least half-degree resolution. Analysis of mesoscale and larger space-time scale phenomena based upon passive and passive/active microwave heating estimates from TRMM, SSMI, and AMSR data will be presented at the conference.

Olson, William S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

PolarMERRA: A Polar-Focused Global Reanalysis Project for Scientific and Stakeholder Needs

The adequate modeling of physical processes in the Arctic and Antarctic is vital for developing prediction capabilities and for obtaining an understanding of rapidly evolving polar conditions, including their potential global impacts. These processes are often poorly represented in global models and reanalyses, owing to a legacy modeling focus on midlatitude processes, as well as a scarcity of observations needed for model development in polar regions. The polarMERRA initiative, a joint effort between NASA’s Cryospheric Sciences and Modeling and Prediction programs, seeks to improve the representation of cryospheric and polar atmospheric processes and to develop an open-source framework for a quantitively evaluation of polar-relevant variables against current and future satellite and in-situ observations, models, and reanalyses. Here, we evaluate the impacts of spatial resolution and modifications to sea ice, ice sheet, and atmospheric parameterizations on the representation of high latitude conditions by using a quantitative scorecard approach that leverages NASA’s extensive satellite record. Investigations are conducted using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS) and its data assimilation system (GEOS DAS). Through a quantitative identification of process deficiencies, bias reductions in key surface variables, including temperature and precipitation over cryospheric surfaces, may be achieved. The polarMERRA project additionally seeks to identify additional data sources for use in the GEOS DAS, and to incorporate data and parameterization improvements into future model and reanalysis products for scientific and stakeholder use.

Lauren C Andrews↗

NASA NTRS1994

Matrix evaluation of science objectives

The most fundamental objective of all robotic planetary spacecraft is to return science data. To accomplish this, a spacecraft is fabricated and built, software is planned and coded, and a ground system is designed and implemented. However, the quantitative analysis required to determine how the collection of science data drives ground system capabilities has received very little attention. This paper defines a process by which science objectives can be quantitatively evaluated. By applying it to the Cassini Mission to Saturn, this paper further illustrates the power of this technique. The results show which science objectives drive specific ground system capabilities. In addition, this process can assist system engineers and scientists in the selection of the science payload during pre-project mission planning; ground system designers during ground system development and implementation; and operations personnel during mission operations.

Wessen, Randii R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Trustworthiness modeling and evaluation for a nearly autonomous management and control system

The Nearly Autonomous Management and Control (NAMAC) system supports the advanced reactor operation by recommending control actions to operators based on real-time measurements and digital twins (DTs) learning from the knowledge base. To enable the safe and reliable use of autonomous technologies, NAMAC and its recommendations should be trustworthy to operators and regulators at both the design and operation stages. This study proposes a NAMAC trustworthiness modeling and evaluation framework supported by trustworthiness ontologies and evidence-based approaches. The development-time and run-time ontologies are separately constructed and then converted to Bayesian networks to quantitatively evaluate the NAMAC trustworthiness. This evaluation is demonstrated by collecting and characterizing evidence from NAMAC practices, such as the development and assessment of the NAMAC system, data coverage assessment, and the training and optimizations of neural-network-based DTs. Our proposed approach can aggregate various trustworthiness attributes of complex artificial-intelligence-supported systems for safety-critical applications. It also considers the interaction between different DTs and extends beyond the trustworthiness evaluation of a single DT. In conclusion, the evidence-based method enhances the transparency of the trustworthiness modeling and evaluation processes and helps identify uncertainties and subjectivity involved in the processes.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2012

Wavespace-Based Coherent Deconvolution

Array deconvolution is commonly used in aeroacoustic analysis to remove the influence of a microphone array's point spread function from a conventional beamforming map. Unfortunately, the majority of deconvolution algorithms assume that the acoustic sources in a measurement are incoherent, which can be problematic for some aeroacoustic phenomena with coherent, spatially-distributed characteristics. While several algorithms have been proposed to handle coherent sources, some are computationally intractable for many problems while others require restrictive assumptions about the source field. Newer generalized inverse techniques hold promise, but are still under investigation for general use. An alternate coherent deconvolution method is proposed based on a wavespace transformation of the array data. Wavespace analysis offers advantages over curved-wave array processing, such as providing an explicit shift-invariance in the convolution of the array sampling function with the acoustic wave field. However, usage of the wavespace transformation assumes the acoustic wave field is accurately approximated as a superposition of plane wave fields, regardless of true wavefront curvature. The wavespace technique leverages Fourier transforms to quickly evaluate a shift-invariant convolution. The method is derived for and applied to ideal incoherent and coherent plane wave fields to demonstrate its ability to determine magnitude and relative phase of multiple coherent sources. Multi-scale processing is explored as a means of accelerating solution convergence. A case with a spherical wave front is evaluated. Finally, a trailing edge noise experiment case is considered. Results show the method successfully deconvolves incoherent, partially-coherent, and coherent plane wave fields to a degree necessary for quantitative evaluation. Curved wave front cases warrant further investigation. A potential extension to nearfield beamforming is proposed.

Bahr, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Batch Effect Correction Methods for NASA GeneLab Transcriptomic Datasets

RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) data from space biology experiments promise to yield invaluable insights into the effects of spaceflight on terrestrial biology. However, sample numbers from each study are low due to limited crew availability, hardware, and space. To increase statistical power, spaceflight RNA-seq datasets from different missions are often aggregated together. However, this can introduce technical variation or "batch effects", often due to differences in sample handling, sample processing, and sequencing platforms. Several computational methods have been developed to correct for technical batch effects, thereby reducing their impact on true biological signals. In this study, we combined 7 mouse liver RNA-seq datasets from NASA GeneLab (part of the NASA Open Science Data Repository) to evaluate several common batch effect correction methods (ComBat and ComBat-seq from the sva R package, and Median Polish, Empirical Bayes, and ANOVA from the MBatch R package). We quantitatively evaluated the ability of these methods to correct for technical batch variables in space biology RNA-seq data using the following criteria: BatchQC, principal component analysis, dispersion separability criterion, log fold change correlation, and differential gene expression analysis. Each batch variable / correction method combination was then assessed using a custom scoring approach to identify the optimal correction method for the combined dataset, by geometrically probing the space of all allowable scoring functions to yield an aggregate volume-based scoring measure. Finally, we describe the way in which the GeneLab multi-study analysis and visualization portal will allow users to examine the presence or absence of batch effects using multiple metrics. If the user chooses to perform batch effect correction, the scoring approach described here can be implemented to identify the optimal correction method to use for their specific combined dataset prior to analysis.

Lauren M. Sanders↗

DOE OSTI2021

Experimental evaluation of localized creep deformation in grade 91 steel weldments

Spatially resolved measurement of localized creep deformation in heterogeneous creep resistant steel weldments is crucial but challenging for lifetime assessments of critical steam components in power plants. Here, experimental approaches were established to quantitatively evaluate commonly observed localized creep deformation in multi-pass Grade 91 steel weldments. An in-situ digital image correlation (DIC) system was utilized with a creep testing frame to monitor and measure both full-field strain and localized strain accumulation across the weldments during long-term creep testing at elevated temperatures. The in situ DIC method measured not only the creep deformation behavior of the weld metal, heat affected zone (HAZ), and base metal, but also creep strain evolution for each sub-region within the HAZ itself, including coarse-grained HAZ, fine-grained HAZ (FGHAZ), and intercritical HAZ (ICHAZ). The DIC results revealed that local creep strain in the ICHAZ reached up to 90% strain before final rupture, whereas nominal creep strain measured by the standard extensometer of the tested cross-weld specimen was below 10%, indicative of Type IV cracking of the Grade 91 weld. Microstructural analyses revealed that the faster creep degradation/deformation in the HAZ was caused mainly by accelerated matrix grain recrystallization/growth and a reduced pinning effect from the segregated and coarsened precipitates in the FGHAZ and ICHAZ. The ultimate creep rupture occurred in the ICHAZ owing to its lowest creep resistance induced by the largest recrystallized grain size, the lowest fraction of coincidence site lattice, and the lowest local strain energies/dislocation densities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Milestone M7 Report: Reducing Excess Data Movement Part 2

This milestone evaluates techniques to measure and, if possible, reduce data movement across all levels of the memory hierarchy, focusing on CPU/GPU page level data movement and on intra-GPU memory hierarchy. We quantitatively evaluate the efficacy of the techniques in reducing data movement and measure how performance tracks data movement reduction. We study a small collection of benchmarks and proxy mini-apps that run on advanced pre-exascale GPUs and on the Accelsim GPU simulator. Our approach has two thrusts: to measure advanced data movement reduction directives and techniques on the newest available GPUs, and to evaluate our benchmark set on simulated GPUs configured with architectural refinements to reduce data movement. We primarily evaluated NVidia-based architectures due to the unavailability of AMD GPU hardware and tools until very recently.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2001

Evaluating Education and Science at the KSC Visitor Complex

As part of a two-year NASA-ASEE project, a preliminary evaluation and subsequent recommendations were developed to improve the education and science content of the Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex exhibits. Recommendations for improvements in those exhibits were based on qualitative descriptions of the exhibits, on comparisons to similar exhibit collections, and on available evaluation processes. Because of the subjective nature of measuring content in a broad group of exhibits and displays, emphasis is placed on employing a survey format for a follow-on, more quantitative evaluation. The use of an external organization for this evaluation development is also recommended to reduce bias and increase validity.

Erickson, Lance K.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Evaluating Education and Science at the KSC Visitor Complex

Erickson, Lance K.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A VOI Web Application for Distinct Geothermal Domains: Statistical Evaluation of Different Data Types within the Great Basin

The Great Basin region contains different domains that have different structural and hydrothermal flow patterns. Depending on the characteristics of these patterns, certain data types may be more successful at detecting hidden geothermal resources. In this paper, we quantitatively evaluate if certain data types are more successful in certain domains. Given different aquifer, strain and structural conditions, we explore which data types statistically reveal positively labeled geothermal sites. We utilize value of information (VOI) metrics to help quantify the reliability of data types to discriminate against "positive" and "negative" labeled geothermal sites. We also evaluate how kernel density estimation can help generalize the statistics that inform VOI, which is necessary given the limited data in geothermal exploration. Except for the Carbonate Aquifer, the highest ranking of the Vimperfect is the Local Structural Setting. Next, the slip and dilation tendency is first for Carbonate Aquifer and second for Central Nevada Seismic Belt and Western Great Basin. For the Carbonate Aquifer, heat flow is has the lowest Vimperfect value compared to the other three domains, which is consistent with the understanding of how heat flow measurements are masked by regional groundwater flow.

Bayesian analysis↗

DOE OSTI2022

Crash Risks Evaluation of Urban Expressways: A Case Study in Shanghai

We report that proactive traffic safety management systems can reduce crashes by identifying crash precursors, evaluating real-time crash risks, and implementing suitable interventions. The basic prerequisite for developing such a system is to propose a reliable crash risk evaluation model that takes real-time traffic flow data as input. Previous studies have primarily focused on real-time crash prediction using some statistical or machine-learning methods. However, further quantitative evaluation and classification of crash risks have been ignored. In this study, we conduct a systematic crash risk evaluation workflow, including crash risk prediction, crash risk quantification, and crash risk classification. Specifically, the crash risk prediction using an extended logit model is proposed, from which CAS, CSD, UAS, DAS, DTV are identified to be contributing factors of crash risks. Then a crash risk quantification model based on the parameter evaluation of the extended logit model is developed. The crash risks of urban expressways and their spatial-temporal evolution trends are quantified. Finally, the crash risks are classified into high crash risk level, moderate crash risk level, and low crash risk level by the k-means cluster algorithm. Then the threshold boundaries of different crash risk levels are determined. The research results provide a proactive guidance for traffic safety management of urban expressways.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Atomistic, macromolecular model of the Populus secondary cell wall informed by solid-state NMR

Plant secondary cell walls (SCWs) are composed of a heterogeneous interplay of three major biopolymers: cellulose, hemicelluloses, and lignin. Details regarding specific intermolecular interactions and higher-order architecture of the SCW superstructure remain ambiguous. Here, we use solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (ssNMR) measurements to infer refined details about the structural configuration, intermolecular interactions, and relative proximity of all three major biopolymers within air-dried Populus wood. To enhance the utility of these findings and enable evaluation of hypotheses in a physics-based environment in silico, the NMR observables are articulated into an atomistic, macromolecular model for biopolymer assemblies within the plant SCW. Through molecular dynamics simulation, we quantitatively evaluate several variations of atomistic models to determine structural details that are corroborated by ssNMR measurements.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1999

Experimental Investigation of Pool Boiling Heat Transfer Enhancement in Microgravity in the Presence of Electric Fields

In boiling high heat fluxes are possible driven by relatively small temperature differences, which make its use increasingly attractive in aerospace applications. The objective of the research is to develop ways to overcome specific problems associated with boiling in the low gravity environment by substituting the buoyancy force with the electric force to enhance bubble removal from the heated surface. Previous studies indicate that in terrestrial applications nucleate boiling heat transfer can be increased by a factor of 50, as compared to values obtained for the same system without electric fields. The goal of our research is to experimentally explore the mechanisms responsible for EHD heat transfer enhancement in boiling in low gravity conditions, by visualizing the temperature distributions in the vicinity of the heated surface and around the bubble during boiling using real-time holographic interferometry (HI) combined with high-speed cinematography. In the first phase of the project the influence of the electric field on a single bubble is investigated. Pool boiling is simulated by injecting a single bubble through a nozzle into the subcooled liquid or into the thermal boundary layer developed along the flat heater surface. Since the exact location of bubble formation is known, the optical equipment can be aligned and focused accurately, which is an essential requirement for precision measurements of bubble shape, size and deformation, as well as the visualization of temperature fields by HI. The size of the bubble and the frequency of bubble departure can be controlled by suitable selection of nozzle diameter and mass flow rate of vapor. In this approach effects due to the presence of the electric field can be separated from effects caused by the temperature gradients in the thermal boundary layer. The influence of the thermal boundary layer can be investigated after activating the heater at a later stage of the research. For the visualization experiments a test cell was developed. All four vertical walls of the test cell are transparent, and they allow transillumination with laser light for visualization experiments by HI. The bottom electrode is a copper cylinder, which is electrically grounded. The copper block is heated with a resistive heater and it is equipped with 6 thermocouples that provide reference temperatures for the measurements with HI. The top electrode is a mesh electrode. Bubbles are injected with a syringe into the test cell through the bottom electrode. The working fluids presently used in the interferometric visualization experiments, water and PF 5052, satisfy requirements regarding thermophysical, optical and electrical properties. A 30kV power supply equipped with a voltmeter allows to apply the electric field to the electrodes during the experiments. The magnitude of the applied voltage can be adjusted either manually or through the LabVIEW data acquisition and control system connected to a PC. Temperatures of the heated block are recorded using type-T thermocouples, whose output is read by a data acquisition system. Images of the bubbles are recorded with 35mm photographic and 16mm high-speed cameras, scanned and analyzed using various software packages. Visualized temperature fields HI allows the visualization of temperature fields in the vicinity of bubbles during boiling in the form of fringes. Typical visualized temperature distributions around the air bubbles injected into the thermal boundary layer in PF5052 are shown. The temperature of the heated surface is 35 C. The temperature difference for a pair of fringes is approximately 0.05 C. The heat flux applied to the bottom surface is moderate, and the fringe patterns are regular. In the image a bubble penetrating the thermal boundary layer is visible. Because of the axial symmetry of the problem, simplified reconstruction techniques can be applied to recover the temperature field. The thermal plume developing above the heated surface for more intensive heating is shown. The temperature distribution in the liquid is clearly 3D, and tomographic techniques have to be applied to recover the temperature distribution in such a physical situation. A sequence of interferometric images showing the temperature distribution around the rising bubble, recorded with a high-speed camera is shown. Again, the temperature distribution is 3D, and a more complex approach to the evaluation, the tomographic reconstruction has to be taken. Measurement of the temperature distribution from the fringe pattern temperature distributions that yield important information regarding heat transfer are determined. Two algorithms that allow the quantitative evaluation of interferometric fringe patterns and the reconstruction of temperature fields during boiling have been developed at the Heat Transfer Laboratory of the Johns Hopkins University. In the first algorithm the bubble is assumed to be axially symmetrical, which significantly reduces the computational effort for quantifying the temperature distribution around the bubble. For this purpose the thermal boundary layer around the bubble is divided into equidistant concentric shells, and the refractive index is assumed to be constant in each of the shells. Since large temperature gradients are expected in the vicinity of the bubble during boiling, the deflection of the light beam cannot be neglected in boiling experiments. Since the exit angle of the light beam is known, this allows to account for the deflections and phase shifts outside the boundary layer (in the bulk fluid and in the windows of the test cell). Three dimensional temperature distributions in the vicinity of the bubble are reconstructed using tomographic techniques. In tomography, the measurement volume is sliced into 2D planes. In the present study these planes are parallel to the heated surface. The objective is to determine the values of the field parameter of interest in form of the field function in these 2D planes. The field parameter is the change of the refractive index of the liquid in the measurement volume caused by temperature changes. By superimposing data for many 2D planes recorded at the same time instant, the 3D temperature distribution in the measurement volume is recovered.

Herman, Cila↗

DOE OSTI2025

Performance Evaluation of Weather@home2 Simulations over West African Region

Weather and climate forecasting, using climate models, have become essential tools and life-savers in the West African region; in spite of the fact that climate models do not fully comply with attributes of forecast qualities—RASAP: reliability, association, skill, accuracy, and precision. The objective of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate, in comparison to CRU and ERA5 datasets, the RASAP compliance-level of the weather@home2 modeling system (w@h2). Findings from some statistical evaluations show that, to a moderately significant extent, w@h2 model provides useful information during the monsoon seasons; skills to capture the Little Dry Season over the Guinea zone; predictive skills for the onset season; ability to reproduce all the annual characteristics of the surface maximum air temperature over the region; as well as skill to detect heat waves that usually ravage West Africa during the boreal spring. The model displays traces of attributes that are needed for seasonal climate predictions and applications. Deficiencies in the quantitative reproducibility point to the facts that the model does provide a reliability akin to that of regional climate models. This paper further furnishes a prospective user with information on whether the model might be “useful or not” for a particular application.

West Africa↗

DOE OSTI2025

Intelligent Manufacturing Support: Specialized LLMs for Composite Material Processing and Equipment Operation

Engineering educational curriculum and standards cover many material and manufacturing options. However, engineers and designers are often unfamiliar with certain composite materials or manufacturing techniques. Large language models (LLMs) could potentially bridge the gap. Their capacity to store and retrieve data from large databases provides them with a breadth of knowledge across disciplines. However, their generalized knowledge base can lack targeted, industry-specific knowledge. To this end, we present two LLM-based applications based on the GPT-4 architecture: (1) The Composites Guide: a system that provides expert knowledge on composites material and connects users with research and industry professionals who can provide additional support and (2) The Equipment Assistant: a system that provides guidance for manufacturing tool operation and material characterization. By combining the knowledge of general AI models with industry-specific knowledge, both applications are intended to provide more meaningful information for engineers. In this paper, we discuss the development of the applications and evaluate it through a benchmark and two informal user studies. The benchmark analysis uses the Rouge and Bertscore metrics to evaluate our models’ performance against GPT-4o. The results show that GPT-4o and the proposed models perform similarly or better on the ROUGE and BERTScore metrics. The two user studies supplement this quantitative evaluation by asking experts to provide qualitative and open-ended feedback about our model’s performance on a set of domain-specific questions. The results of both studies highlight a potential for more detailed and specific responses with the Composites Guide and the Equipment Assistant.

Kapoor, Gunnika [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗

DOE OSTI2020

System code evaluation of near-term accident tolerant claddings during pressurized water reactor station blackout accidents

Following the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in 2011, researches on Accident-tolerant fuels (ATFs) are currently of high interest in not only the nuclear industry but also governmental and international organizations. In this work, a quantitative evaluation of the performance of monolithic FeCrAl cladding and Cr-coated Zircaloy cladding has been performed for Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Station Blackout (SBO) accidents. A generic PWR model has been built in system thermal-hydraulics code TRACE based on the Surry Nuclear Power Station with counter-current natural circulation modelling capability for hotleg and steam generator U-tube components during the accidents. The base model results are then compared to MELCOR and RELAP simulations to verify the system component implementation in TRACE. Two PWR SBO scenarios were investigated, including: short-term SBO and long-term SBO with early reactor coolant pump (RCP) seal failure. These scenarios are defined to be very similar to the accidents studied in the State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analysis (SOARCA) project. TRACE code is modified to reflect the oxidation kinetics of FeCrAl and Cr-coating. Larson-Miller creep rupture model is also implemented in TARCE using its built-in control systems to simulate the creep rupture of hotlegs. Additionally, the comparison between the TRACE models with and without the counter-current flow modeling resulted in significant difference when comparing ATF cladding to Zircaloy for short term SBO, while it marginal impacted the performance during long term SBO with RCP seal failure. For short term SBO, both ATF cladding underwent hot leg creep rupture ~20 min after Zircaloy cladding. While Zircaloy and Cr-coated cladding had generated significant amount of hydrogen gas (>10 kg) before the creep rupture event, FeCrAl cladding had only generated <0.5 kg of hydrogen gas. For long term SBO with RCP seal failure, significant hydrogen generation and fuel melting was predicted before hot leg creep rupture for the ATF cladding while providing only 10–20 min additional coping time compared to Zircaloy.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Cease Fire CFP 640 for Use in Gloveboxes (Final Report)

A Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) task group was established to discuss and evaluate a candidate fire suppression system (FSS) for gloveboxes (GB) and dropboxes (DB, for brevity, this report will simply refer to gloveboxes). Suitability criteria include compliance, compatibility, and capability. LANL contracted with New Mexico Tech (NMT) to quantitatively evaluate the perfor mance of one of those systems including its ability to extinguish GB fires, limit over-pressurization of the GB, etc. Additionally, the results of these experiments provide data points that could be used when fire hazard evaluations (FHEs) are conducted for determining when to require a fire suppres sion system installation within a GB (as required by NFPA 801, Standard for Facilities Handling Radioactive Materials, DOE Standard 1066-2012 Fire Protection, and AGS-G010-2011 Standard of Practice for Glovebox Fire Protection).

42 ENGINEERING↗