Global sensitivity analysis in Monte Carlo radiation transport
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The influence of radiation-induced (1 MeV energy H+ to ~0.1 dpa at 450°C), non-equilibrium point defect populations on mass transport is studied with an integrated campaign of experimental and theoretical methods. Using epitaxial thin films of hematite with embedded 18O tracer layers and nanoscale atom probe tomography measurements, it is shown that anion self-diffusion is enhanced by at least 2 orders of magnitude under irradiation compared to thermal diffusion alone. Complementary scanning transmission electron microscopy of vacuum annealed specimens, reveals associated microstructural changes in the oxide films, including local phase transformation to Fe3O4 and the development of nanoscale voids from vacancy coalescence. Point defect formation and migration energies were computed from density functional theory and applied within the context of chemical rate theory to analyze contributions from both interstitial and vacancy mechanisms to self-diffusion in thermal and irradiation conditions. Comparisons are made between calculated, literature and newly measured self-diffusion values, revealing good agreement on the magnitude of radiation-enhanced anion diffusion. Further, the model suggests a transition from vacancy to interstitialcy mechanisms at low temperatures and high oxygen activity, consistent with the varied activation energies reported from prior studies.
In the inverse radiation transport problem, a radiation signal emanating from an unknown object is used to reconstruct geometric and material parameters of the object , e.g., the mass of special nuclear material (SNM), the isotopic composition of the SNM (e.g., the enrichment of 235U), the thickness of shielding, etc. The inverse radiation transport problem is one of the most fundamental and important in the emergency response mission, and has been addressed in previous NA-22 and NA-42/84 investments by using derivative-free optimization methods. Our project was aimed at (i) consolidating previous work by applying polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) for reducing significantly the number of forward model simulations required by derivative-free optimization methods; (ii) developing a general-purpose framework and stand-alone software for solving the inverse radiation transport problem by applying a new “predictive modeling” methodology (predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems, PM_CMPS) which enables the fusing of experimental and computational information; and (iii) developing several benchmarks (for unscattered gamma rays) for demonstrating the quantification of non-Gaussian features (e.g., skewness and kurtosis, which characterize asymmetries and long tails) of response distributions by deterministically and efficiently propagating parameter uncertainties (covariances and higher-order moments, where available) using high-order sensitivities computed by the recently developed comprehensive adjoint sensitivity analysis methodology (C-ASAM). With regard to (i), application of PCE, the most significant accomplishment of this project was an implementation of PCE into INVERSE that significantly reduced computation time for the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and Differential Evolution (DE) methods. For inverse transport problems with measurements of neutron leakage, neutron multiplication, and neutron-induced gamma-rays, the solution times for the DREAM and DE methods were reduced by factors of 30-300, reducing run times from hours to minutes while maintaining the same accuracy as the standard (non-PCE) DREAM and DE. Speedups were further improved by exploring sparse grid quadrature sets using the Toolkit for Adaptive Stochastic Modeling and Non-Intrusive ApproximatioN (Tasmanian) toolset. An initial exploration of sparse grids indicated that further speedups factors of 5-10 are obtainable. The implementation of PCE in INVERSE is not in a form that users can easily access. With regard to (ii), solving the inverse problem using a predictive modeling paradigm, the most significant accomplishment of this project were the derivation and implementation of adjoint-based second derivatives in neutron and photon transport theory. There are two codes that compute these derivatives. SENSPG computes them for uncollided gamma rays and SENSMG computes them for neutron leakage. SENSMG is open-source code available on github. Other significant accomplishments included a stand-alone code, MULTI-PRED, that implements the predictive modeling paradigm, along with a detailed manual. The code was implemented in the existing INVERSE code for inverse problems, but a head-to-head comparison of inverse methods was not achieved. We also derived and implemented the capability to compute sensitivities for multiplicity measurements into the SENSMG code, and this capability was used in a data assimilation application, but it was not used for solving inverse problems. With regard to (iii), developing benchmarks to demonstrate the importance of high-order sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the most significant accomplishment of this project were two test problems that showed how important second-order sensitivities are.
The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) shutdown dose rate (SDDR) code suite calculates gamma dose rates at a location of interest due to activation of materials. The code suite is based on the rigorous two-step (R2S) method that involves two radiation transport calculations: (1) neutron radiation transport to determine neutron fluxes in the material for which activation calculations will be performed and (2) gamma radiation transport to determine dose rates at a location of interest, due to material activation. The ORNL SDDR code suite is used to determine an importance function that characterizes the neutron’s importance to the final SDDR when the Monte Carlo radiation transport method is used. This report demonstrates how the ORNL SDDR code suite is implemented through the following codes: Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) code Version 5-1.60, Oak Ridge Isotope Generator (ORIGEN), MSX suite of utilities, Neutron Activation Gamma Source Sampler (NAGSS), and Automated Variance Reduction Generator (ADVANTG). For this demonstration, the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) SDDR benchmark problem is used and the dose rate result is compared to previously published work.
Biomass burning aerosol (BBA) impacts climate through aerosol‐cloud‐radiation interactions, but models disagree on the sign and magnitude of BBA radiative effects. We quantify the sensitivity of BBA radiative effects and transport to three BBA‐relevant processes and properties: parameterized oxidative aging of organic aerosol (OA), a combined change to black carbon (BC) density and the method for calculating aerosol refractive index, and reduction in OA density. We evaluate Unified Model simulations against two aircraft campaigns from summer 2017 over the Southeast Atlantic. The model generally performs well, such that discrepancies between the observational data sets may sometimes limit the precision of the evaluation. Our newly developed aging parameterization reproduces observed OA:BC mass ratios well and allows modeled OA:BC to decrease with smoke age, but increases bias in aerosol extinction and changes the BBA radiative effect little (+0.12 W m -2 ). We calculate aerosol refractive index using either a volume‐weighted component average or the Maxwell‐Garnett (MG) mixing assumption, which represents BC as small inclusions in a host material. Compared to MG mixing, the volume‐weighted average refractive index and reduced BC density increase aerosol absorption, substantially increasing the total BBA radiative effect (+2.66 W m -2 ) and amount of BBA transported across the ocean through BC self‐lofting. Reducing OA density to better match literature values changes the total BBA radiative effect by −1.96 W m -2 . Changes to direct radiative effects exceed changes to cloud radiative effects. Our findings emphasize the sensitivity of aerosol radiative effects and transport to these processes and properties, which we suggest could be improved in climate models.
To understand the environment where a time-resolved hard x-ray spectrometer (AXIOM) might be fielded, experiments and simulations were performed to analyze the radiation dose environment underneath the Saturn vacuum dome. Knowledge of this environment is critical to the design and placement of the spectrometer. Experiments demonstrated that the machine performance, at least in terms of on-axis dose, has not significantly changed over the decades. Simulations of the off-axis dose were performed to identify possible spectrometer locations of interest. The effects from the source and dome hardware as well as source distributions and angles of incidence on the radiation environment were also investigated. Finally, a unified radiation transport model was developed for two widely used radiation transport codes to investigate the off-axis dose profiles and the time-dependent x-ray energy spectrum. The demonstrated equivalence of the unified radiation transport model between the radiation transport codes allows the team to tie future time-dependent x-ray environment calculations to previous integral simulations for the Saturn facility.
Dust transport and spatial distribution are poorly represented in current global climate models (GCMs) including the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Particularly, models lack explicit representation of super-coarse dust, which may have important implications for dust radiative forcing and impacts on biogeochemistry. A nine-mode version of the modal aerosol model (MAM9) has been developed to address these issues. In this new aerosol scheme, four dust modes have been designed to treat dust particles of sizes up to 20 μm. The MAM9-simulated results are compared with those from the default four-mode version of MAM (MAM4) and also with the in situ surface measurements of dust concentration and deposition flux, satellite-retrieved dust extinction profile, and in situ vertical measurements of dust concentrations from the NASA Atmosphere Tomography Mission (ATom). Overall, MAM9 improves the dust representation in remote regions while maintaining reasonably good results near the dust source regions. In addition, MAM9 reduces the fine dust burden and increases the coarse dust burden globally. The increased coarse dust burden has slightly increased the dust direct radiative effect by 0.01 W m –2 while it enhanced dust indirect radiative effect by 0.36 W m –2 , globally.
Exploiting the multiple long pulse capability and suite of x-ray diagnostics of the Orion laser, we have set out to explore line coincidence photopuming—the enhancement in population of an atomic level brought on by resonant absorption of x rays from a different emitting ion. Unlike previous work, the two ions are in the same plasma and so the experiment is an x-ray analog of the well-known Bowen resonance fluorescence mechanism that operates in astrophysical situations in the optical region. Herein, our measurements have shown enhanced fluorescence in a chlorine plasma, attributable to line coincident photopumping from co-mixed potassium ions. To detect this relatively low signal-to-noise phenomenon, the data from multiple shots are combined, and the statistical method of bootstrapping is used to assign a confidence value to the measured enhancement, resulting in an estimate of the enhancement of 39 ± 18 16 % compared to the null case, where no pumping occurs. The experimental results have been compared to coupled radiation-transport and radiation hydrodynamics simulations using the CRETIN code together with the NYM radiation hydrodynamics model and agreement has been found, with the simulations also predicting modest enhancement.
Charged particle physics, implicit Monte Carlo (IMC) radiation transport, and Sn radiation transport were recently added to the code LUMOS developed by the Lagrangian Applications Project at Los Alamos National Laboratory. This advancement is part of an effort to increase LUMOS’s applicability across a wide variety of problems of interest to the Laboratory including application to inertial confinement fusion (ICF). ICF implosion physics is of interest to the Lagrangian Applications Project because 1) ICF fusion research is a critical mission driver at the laboratory and 2) ICF fusion is a key research area for students and new staff members during the on-boarding process.
The release of radioactive gas into the atmosphere can diffuse into large volumes of air downwind from the point of release. The extent of radioactivity can cover thousands of cubic meters of air. For such large volumes, the weather models used to predict the down-wind distribution of the plume and the radiation transport models used to predict the radiation reaching ground-level from the plume can take tens of hours of computer time on multi-node institutional High-Performance Computing facilities. In this paper we focus on the radiation transport aspect of plume modeling. Here, we describe a phenomenological method for approximating the amounts of radiation that reach ground level from large volumes of a static radioactive plume that can be calculated on a stand-alone personal computer in much shorter computation times than those usually needed for such large volume evaluations. We refer to this method as the Density Scaling Approximation (DSA). Its ability to approximate ground-level count rates of large plumes comes from using a small-plume volume with a scaled-up value of air density to simulate the same number of scatterings that occur during transport in larger plume volumes at normal air density. We demonstrate the DSA by using a 100 m-diameter air-filled hemispherical dome geometry with a uniform volumetric activity of 135 Xe gas throughout the air-filled volume. The DSA for a larger dome diameter is obtained by evaluating the 100 m dome with an air density scaled up by the linear ratio of the larger diameter to the 100 m diameter. We find that this approximation works well for dome diameters up to 1200 m – the largest diameter studied and a size more than sufficient for accounting for all the radiation from 135 Xe. Moreover, most of our DSA results can be calculated over 500 times faster than corresponding full-sized geometry with normal air density. To help evaluate the accuracy of the DSA and gain insight into how well it can reproduce different regions of the spectra, we use three, easily understood regions of interest to compare the DSA results to the full-sized geometry at normal air density results. These regions are the full-energy peak, the region of single-Compton scattering, and the region of multiple-Compton scattering. We show how the dominance of the Compton scattering mechanism determines this division and thus provides insight into how Compton scattering is manifested in spectra from photon scattering through air in general, and how well the DSA approximation works.
By building on the generalized Hovel model, this work develops an analytical solution to unify photon recycling, light trapping, and carrier transport in solar cells. Enhanced transport due to photon recycling diffusion is considered. While photon recycling diffusion is often negligible, it can significantly support transport in cases where charge diffusion is low but radiative efficiency is high. Next, the diffusion equation is solved to determine carrier collection for planar and textured cells. Results elucidate novel features in the external quantum efficiency (EQE) curve that occur for textured cells with high absorption and limited transport. Then, the effect of limited transport on the radiative recombination of solar cells is investigated in detail. While the traditional treatment of detailed balance uses the applied voltage to calculate a cell's radiative recombination, the present approach uses the spatially resolved quasi-Fermi-level splitting (QFLS). Further, the discrepancy between the models is shown to be inconsequential to performance for cells with low radiative recombination (Si) or with high mobilities (lowly doped GaAs). However, for cells with high radiative recombination and low mobility (highly doped GaAs, polycrystalline CdTe, and thin-film perovskites), incorporating variation in QFLS in the determination of radiative recombination can become necessary for accurate photovoltaic modeling.
Monte Carlo simulations of low-energy ( <50 keV) electron transport in matter are essential for a broad range of application fields. Several Monte Carlo codes have developed specialized treatments for this case, but a comprehensive validation of low-energy electron transport for general-purpose simulations remains lacking in the literature. One approach to accomplish this validation is calculation of stopping power using low-energy electron transport physics, as stopping power is a fundamental radiation transport quantity which must be simulated accurately for nearly any application. Here in this work, we use the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport code with the single-event method for electron transport to calculate stopping powers of low-energy electrons (50 eV to 30 keV) in 41 elemental solids, 14 compound solids, and five rare gas solids, comparing simulation results to published semi-empirical stopping power calculations from optical measurements. In general, the simulations give good agreement (typically within ±10%) with semi-empirical stopping power values at higher energies: 300 eV and above for most elemental solids, 1 keV and above for compound solids, and 400 eV and above for rare gas solids. Agreement between MCNP and semi-empirical values is worse below these energies. The most significant source of error is the EPRDATA14 cross section data, which does not account for changes in electronic structure due to solid-state bonding, particularly in compound materials. The simplistic model of atomic excitation used to generate the EPRDATA14 cross sections is another key source of error. Additionally, the breakdown of the continuous slowing-down approximation introduces significant uncertainty at low energies, although this is a limitation of the calculation method and not of the simulation procedure. Accounting for these and other uncertainty sources, the single event method in MCNP is robust and able to give good accuracy for a variety of low-energy electron transport problems through diverse kinds of materials.
Uncertainty quantification from radiation transport calculations was conducted using a Bayesian inference approach. A surrogate model, using a convolutional neural network, was employed to emulate the neutron fluence, which was simulated with a Monte Carlo radiation transport model. This allowed for a computationally cheap approach to evaluate input parameters and to sample their corresponding posterior probability distributions. Experimental data from the literature were employed to perform uncertainty quantification studies for concrete shields. As a result, the method is a nonintrusive approach that enables studies with multiple input parameters and can be applied to any radiation transport model.