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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7

RAMSeS: Rapid Analysis of Mission Software Systems

Over the past few decades, software has become ubiquitous as it has been integrated into nearly every aspect of society, including household appliances, consumer electronics, industrial control systems, public utilities, government operations, and military systems. Consequently, many critical national security questions can no longer be answered convincingly without understanding software, including its purpose, its capabilities, its flaws, its communication, or how it processes and stores data. As software continues to become larger, more complex, and more widespread, our ability to answer important mission questions and reason about software in a timely way is falling behind. Today, to achieve such understanding of third-party software, we rely predominantly on the ability of reverse engineering experts to manually answer each particular mission question for every software system of interest. This approach often requires heroic human effort that nevertheless fails to meet current mission needs and will never scale to meet future needs. The result is an emerging crisis: a massive and expanding gap between the national security need to answer mission questions about software and our ability to do so. Sandia National Laboratories has established the Rapid Analysis of Mission Software Systems (RAMSeS) effort, a collaborative long-term effort aimed at dramatically improving our nation’s ability to answer mission questions about third-party software by growing an ecosystem of tools that augment the human reverse engineer through automation, interoperability, and reuse. Focusing on static analysis of binary programs, we are attempting to identify reusable software analysis components that advance our ability to reason about software, to automate useful aspects of the software analysis process, and to integrate new methodologies and capabilities into a working ecosystem of tools and experts. We aim to integrate existing tools where possible, adapt tools when modest modifications will enable them to interoperate, and implement missing capability when necessary. Although we do hope to automate a growing set of analysis tasks, we will approach this goal incrementally by assisting the human in an ever-widening range of tasks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Evaluation of Portable Programming Models to Accelerate LArTPC Detector Simulations

The Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) technology is widely used in high energy physics experiments, including the upcoming Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). Accurately simulating LArTPC detector responses is essential for analysis algorithm development and physics model interpretations. Accurate LArTPC detector response simulations are computationally demanding, and can become a bottleneck in the analysis workflow. Compute devices such as General-Purpose Graphics Processing Units (GPGPUs) have the potential to substantially accelerate simulations compared to traditional CPU-only processing. The software development for these compute accelerators often carries the cost of specialized code refactorization and porting to match the target hardware architecture. With the rapid evolution and increased diversity of the computer architecture landscape, it is highly desirable to have a portable solution that also maintains reasonable performance. We report our ongoing effort in evaluating Kokkos as a basis for this portable programming model using LArTPC simulations in the context of the Wire-Cell Toolkit, a C++ library for LArTPC simulations, data analysis, reconstruction and visualization.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Window Attachments: The Next Big Energy-Savings Measure?

Windows in residential buildings are estimated to generate 29% of all HVAC heating and cooling load, approximately 2.67 quadrillion Btu (Apte and Arasteh 2006). Although more than a third of residential windows are single pane, very few utility programs offer incentives for installation of energy-efficient windows (Bickel et al. 2013). The reason is simple: unless someone is already planning to replace their windows, the payback can often take a decade, if not longer. Preliminary data indicates that some energy-efficient window attachments, such as low- emissivity (low-e) storm windows and interior panels, cellular shades, interior and exterior roller shades and shutters, window films, solar screens, window quilts, and awnings, can deliver cost-effective energy savings. Additionally, the means to reliably identify and compare energy-efficient window attachment products will soon be available through the Attachment Energy Rating Council (AERC), a public interest energy performance rating and certification organization co-funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the window attachment industry. This paper presents, for the first time, national and regional energy savings estimates for cellular shades and low-emissivity storm windows and panels using existing data on household energy savings potential. This paper is an early step in the process of determining the cost-effectiveness of window attachments for utility programs. The next step is for utilities to develop pilot programs to conduct field tests of these products, which will generate the energy savings data to determine if full-scale programs are cost-effective.

Bickel, Stephen↗

Estimated attribution of the RFS program on soybean biodiesel in the U.S. using the bioenergy scenario model

Biofuels are supported by various governmental policies in the U.S. and globally as an alternative transportation fuel for environmental, geopolitical, and economic reasons. Much debate surrounds the effectiveness of these policies as well as the overall net environmental effect of increased biofuels use. In the U.S., recent studies have shown that the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Program, overall, may not have been the leading driver of the ethanol industry from 2005 to 2020, contrary to common perception. Similar scrutiny has not been applied to biodiesel. Here, this study uses the Bioenergy Scenario Model, a well-vetted system dynamics model, to retrospectively apportion historical biodiesel production between the RFS Program and other potentially influential drivers, such as the economics of biodiesel vs. diesel, the Biodiesel Tax Credit (BTC), California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and other factors. From 2002 to 2020 about 36% of biodiesel production can be attributed to the RFS Program, 35% to the BTC, and the rest to other factors. Thus, the overall effect of the RFS Program appears much larger on biodiesel than on corn ethanol. The finding that the same policy may have very disparate effects on different biofuels helps inform the design of future policies on biofuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Progress toward a universal biomedical data translator

Clinical, biomedical, and translational science has reached an inflection point in the breadth and diversity of available data and the potential impact of such data to improve human health and well-being. However, the data are often siloed, disorganized, and not broadly accessible due to discipline-specific differences in terminology and representation. To address these challenges, the Biomedical Data Translator Consortium has developed and tested a pilot knowledge graph-based “Translator” system capable of integrating existing biomedical data sets and “translating” those data into insights intended to augment human reasoning and accelerate translational science. Having demonstrated feasibility of the Translator system, the Translator program has since moved into development, and the Translator Consortium has made significant progress in the research, design, and implementation of an operational system. Herein, we describe the current system’s architecture, performance, and quality of results. We apply Translator to several real-world use cases developed in collaboration with subject-matter experts. Finally, we discuss the scientific and technical features of Translator and compare those features to other state-of-the-art, biomedical graph-based question-answering systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The Study of TRR Radial Thermal Shielding Dismantling Process - 20063

The decommissioning of nuclear facilities has become an important worldwide topic because many nuclear power facilities will permanently cease operation in the foreseeable future. Taiwan Research Reactor (TRR) has stepped into the decommissioning phase in 2004, and the dismantling processes will start in 2022. TRR is a heavy water reactor designed by Canatom Company with output thermal power 40 MW. On January 3, 1973, it reaches criticality. TRR had been operated for 15 years and was permanently shut down in early 1988. The decommissioning plan of TRR was approved in 2004. According to the Nuclear Reactor Facilities Regulation Act in Taiwan, a nuclear facility must be dismantled in 25 years after stepping into the decommissioning phase. Therefore, TRR decommissioning must be completed before 2029. One of the most important tasks of TRR decommissioning is to dismantle reactor body. In the task of TRR decommissioning, mechanical cutting with remote handling is used to dismantle radial thermal shielding, which are the internal components of the TRR. This study outlines the internal components of the TRR and explains the difficulties encountered during the dismantling processes. Considering the structure and radiation dose rate of TRR and its internal components, the dismantling method and packaging method are properly arranged to complete the TRR dismantling task. This study describes the process of dismantling the radial thermal shielding during the dismantling processes and considers the impact of the radiation dose on the staff during the operation. The calculation of the radiation dose rate for the personnel during the segmentation process is based on the evaluation result by using VRdose. If the calculation of personnel working dose rate is too high, we will increase the shielding or use remote handling to reduce the operator's exposure dose in the dismantling processes to comply with the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle. In this study, the latest developments in the TRR decommissioning program are described. It also provides usable experience and information regarding the future decommissioning of other nuclear facilities or nuclear power plants in Taiwan. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Realistic multisite lattice-gas modeling and KMC simulation of catalytic surface reactions: Kinetics and multiscale spatial behavior for CO-oxidation on metal (100) surfaces

A realistic molecular-level description of catalytic reactions on single-crystal metal surfaces can be provided by stochastic multisite lattice-gas (msLG) models. This approach has general applicability, although in this report, we will focus on the example of CO-oxidation on the unreconstructed fcc metal (100) or M(100) surfaces of common catalyst metals M = Pd, Rh, Pt and Ir (i.e., avoiding regimes where Pt and Ir reconstruct). These models can capture the thermodynamics and kinetics of adsorbed layers for the individual reactants species, such as CO/M(100) and O/M(100), as well as the interaction and reaction between different reactant species in mixed adlayers, such as (CO + O)/M(100). The msLG models allow population of any of hollow, bridge, and top sites. This enables a more flexible and realistic description of adsorption and adlayer ordering, as well as of reaction configurations and configuration-dependent barriers. Adspecies adsorption and interaction energies, as well as barriers for various processes, constitute key model input. The choice of these energies is guided by experimental observations, as well as by extensive Density Functional Theory analysis. Model behavior is assessed via Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulation. We also address the simulation challenges and theoretical ramifications associated with very rapid diffusion and local equilibration of reactant adspecies such as CO. These msLG models are applied to describe adsorption, ordering, and temperature programmed desorption (TPD) for individual CO/M(100) and O/M(100) reactant adlayers. In addition, they are also applied to predict mixed (CO + O)/M(100) adlayer structure on the nanoscale, the complete bifurcation diagram for reactive steady-states under continuous flow conditions, temperature programmed reaction (TPR) spectra, and titration reactions for the CO-oxidation reaction. Extensive and reasonably successful comparison of model predictions is made with experimental data. Furthermore, we discuss the possible transition from traditional mean-field-type bistability and reaction kinetics for lower-pressure to multistability and enhanced fluctuation effects for moderate- or higher-pressure. Behavior in the latter regime reflects a stronger influence of adspecies interactions and also lower diffusivity in the higher-coverage mixed adlayer. We also analyze mesoscale spatiotemporal behavior including the propagation of reaction diffusion fronts between bistable reactive and inactive states, and associated nucleation-mediated transitions between these states. This behavior is controlled by complex surface mass transport processes, specifically chemical diffusion in mixed reactant adlayers for which we provide a precise theoretical formulation. The msLG models together with an appropriate treatment of chemical diffusivity enable equation-free heterogeneous coupled lattice-gas (HCLG) simulations of spatiotemporal behavior. In addition, msLG + HCLG modeling can describe coverage variations across polycrystalline catalysts surfaces, pressure variations across catalyst surfaces in microreactors, and could be incorporated into a multiphysics framework to describe mass and heat transfer limitations for high-pressure catalysis. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Differentiable Quantum Programming with Unbounded Loops

The emergence of variational quantum applications has led to the development of automatic differentiation techniques in quantum computing. Existing work has formulated differentiable quantum programming with bounded loops, providing a framework for scalable gradient calculation by quantum means for training quantum variational applications. However, promising parameterized quantum applications, e.g., quantum walk and unitary implementation, cannot be trained in the existing framework due to the natural involvement of unbounded loops. To fill in the gap, we provide the first differentiable quantum programming framework with unbounded loops, including a newly designed differentiation rule, code transformation, and their correctness proof. Technically, we introduce a randomized estimator for derivatives to deal with the infinite sum in the differentiation of unbounded loops, whose applicability in classical and probabilistic programming is also discussed. We implement our framework with Python and Q# and demonstrate a reasonable sample efficiency. Through extensive case studies, we showcase an exciting application of our framework in automatically identifying close-to-optimal parameters for several parameterized quantum applications.

Computer Science↗

Large reductions in Permian Basin methane intensity shown in multi-year comparison of aerially-visible methane emissions

Spanning the US states of Texas and New Mexico, the Permian Basin has been a hotspot of methane emissions from oil and natural gas activity 1–4, although studies disagree over the magnitude of these emissions. The most comprehensive measurement campaigns published were conducted in 2019 1–5 .There have been large changes in the energy industry since then, including in the prices of oil and gas, both state and federal regulatory environments, investor and activist pressure over methane emissions, and the adoption of new technologies and policies by energy operators. Understanding how any or all of these might influence methane emissions is important for policy makers, oil and gas operators, and other stakeholders. We characterize the time evolution of Permian Basin methane emissions using a series of comprehensive aerial surveys conducted every year from 2020-2023 and compare them to the 2019 results cited above. To maintain comparability, all the data sets are from surveys using Insight M point source methane sensing technology. The scope of these surveys expanded over time: from 33-46% of wells, oil production, and gas production in 2020 to 60-65% in 2021, to 84% of wells and over 90% of both oil and gas production in 2023. These surveys by Insight M also include hundreds of gas processing plants and compressor stations as well as 1000s of km of gathering and transmission pipelines. Considering only the aerially detected portion of emissions (typically the majority of the total in such surveys 4), we find reductions of more than 70% in methane emissions intensity compared to the 2019 New Mexico-only Insight M survey, with variation depending on the year 3,4. Notably, although sources below 100 kg/hr contributed less than 10% of aerially measured emissions the 2019 New Mexico survey 3, these smaller sources constitute a larger proportion of total aerially measured emissions (although not the majority) in 2020-2023. Production facilities and gathering pipelines are responsible for the larges shares of total emissions, followed by compressor stations and gas processing plants. Permian methane emissions were also measured in a comprehensive 2019 Permian-wide survey by the Carbon Mapper team 2. That analysis led to a lower total emissions estimate at the time 4. These new Insight M-based emission rates are still roughly 30-70% lower than the aerially measured portion of the 2019 Carbon Mapper-based estimates 4. Further work is needed to harmonize these surveys in space and time to create the most intercomparable numbers possible 5. Additional analysis is needed to compare our findings to the more spatially constrained 2020, 2021, and 2023 Carbon Mapper surveys in the Permian 4,6. The evidence is strong from these two survey teams that emissions intensity has declined significantly since 2019. Reasons for this trend are currently unclear but point to possible success of emissions control programs. Future work investigating frequency, source, and operator-specific intensities could provide insights into the causes of this promising trend.

methane, oil and gas, data science, remote sensing↗

The Department of Energy Savannah River Operations Office Savannah River National Laboratory Unmanned Aircraft System Aviation Implementation Plan

The Department of Energy Savannah River Operations Office Savannah River National Laboratory Unmanned Aircraft System Aviation Implementation Plan was written to provide guidance for the safe, efficient, and lawful operation of the SRNL small Unmanned Aircraft System (sUAS) Program. It shall be the intent of every sUAS remote pilot in command to make reasonable effort not to invade a person's reasonable expectation of privacy when operating the sUAS. SRS sUAS operations will be conducted in accordance all applicable Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Department of Energy (DOE), and DOE-Savannah River Operations Office (DOE-SR) regulations, policies and procedures. All sUAS operations will be conducted in accordance with the applicable FAA issued DOE Certificate of Authorization (COA) and be approved by the applicable DOE-SR Flight Readiness Review Board (FRRB). The scope of this document is limited to remote pilots in command of sUAS's in support of the DOE, DOE-SR, or SRS missions, research & development (R&D) and national security strategic initiatives supported by SRNL, and other approved missions as required in the US National Airspace (NAS) as defined by the FAA.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Diagnosing the Causes and Severity of One-sided Message Contention

Two trends suggest network contention for one-sided messages is poised to become a performance problem that concerns application developers: an increased interest in one-sided programming models and a rising ratio of hardware threads to network injection bandwidth. Unfortunately, it is difficult to reason about network contention and one-sided messages because one-sided tasks can either decrease or increase contention. We present effective and portable techniques for diagnosing the causes and severity of one-sided message contention. To detect that a message is affected by contention, we maintain statistics representing instantaneous (non-local) network resource demand. Using lightweight measurement and modeling, we identify the portion of a message's latency that is due to contention and whether contention occurs at the initiator or target. We attribute these metrics to program statements in their full static and dynamic context. We characterize contention for an important computational chemistry benchmark on InfiniBand, Cray Aries, and IBM Blue Gene/Q interconnects. We pinpoint the sources of contention, estimate their severity, and show that when message delivery time deviates from an ideal model, there are other messages contending for the same network links. With a small change to the benchmark, we reduce contention up to 50% and improve total runtime as much as 20%.

Network Contention, Performance Analysis, Dynamic ↗

AI-Guided Reasoning-Based Operator Support System for the Nuclear Power Plant Management

The Decision-making process in the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) control room faces some challenges: operator incomplete knowledge, insufficient time for responding to the highly dynamic events, and a large number of indicators to monitor. Because of the complexity of the NPP system, it is hard to pre-plan all the failures/mitigative actions. An intelligent operator support system is vital to mitigate these shortcomings. In this paper, an AI declarative approach (Answer Set Programming (ASP)) is employed to represent our knowledge of the nuclear power plant in the form of logic rules. This represented knowledge is structured to form a reasoning-based operator support system. When an incident occurs, this ASP-based reasoning support system is demonstrated to be capable of fault identification (diagnosis), informing the operator of different scenarios and consequences, and generating the control options (decision making).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

GaN Initiative for Grid Applications (GIGA)

For nearly 4 ½ years, MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) led a very successful, DoE-funded team effort to develop GaN-on-Si materials and devices, targeting high-voltage (>1 kV), high-power, cost-effective electronics for grid applications. This effort, called the GaN Initiative for Grid Applications (GIGA) program, was initially made up of MIT/LL, the MIT campus group of Prof. Tomas Palacios (MIT), and the industrial partner M/A Com Technology Solutions (MTS). Later in the program a 4th team member was added (IQE MA) to provide commercial-scale GaN-on-Si epitaxial materials. A basic premise of the GIGA program was that power electronics, for ubiquitous utilization -even for grid applications - should be closer in cost structure to more conventional Si-based power electronics. For a number of reasons, more established GaN-on-SiC or even SiC-based power electronics are not likely to reach theses cost structures, even in higher manufacturing volumes. An additional premise of the GIGA program was that the technical focus would be on materials and devices suitable for operating at voltages > 1 kV, even though there is also significant commercial interest in developing lower voltage (< 1 kV), cost effective GaN-on-Si devices for higher volume applications, like consumer products. Remarkable technical progress was made during the course of this program. Advances in materials included the growth of high-quality, crack-free epitaxial GaN layers on large-diameter Si substrates with thicknesses up to ~5 μm, overcoming significant challenges in lattice mismatch and thermal expansion differences between Si and GaN in the actual epitaxial growth process. Such thick epilayers are crucial for high voltage operation of lateral geometry devices such as Schottky barrier (SB) diodes and high electron mobility transistors (HEMTs). New “Normally-Off” device architectures were demonstrated – for safe operation of power electronics circuits. The trade-offs between lateral and vertical devices were explored, with the conclusion that lateral devices are superior for fundamental thermal reasons, as well as for the demonstration of future generations of monolithic power circuits. As part of the materials and device investigations breakdown mechanisms in GaN-on-Si structures were fully characterized and effective electric field engineering was recognized as critical for achieving even higher voltage operation. Improved device contact technology was demonstrated, including the first gold-free metallizations (to enable processing in CMOS foundries) while maintaining low specific contact resistance needed for high-power operation and 5-order-of magnitude improvement in device leakage currents (essential for high power operation). In addition, initial GaN-on-Si epitaxial growth was performed on 8”/200 mm Si starting substrates.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Analysis of spin frustration in an Fe III 7 cluster using a combination of computational, experimental, and magnetostructural correlation methods

The synthesis, structure, and magnetic properties are reported for [Fe 7 O 3 (O 2 C t Bu) 9 (mda) 3 (H 2 O) 3 ] ( 1 ), where mdaH 2 is N -methyldiethanolamine. 1 was prepared from the reaction of [Fe 3 O(O 2 C t Bu) 6 (H 2 O) 3 ](NO 3 ) with mdaH 2 in a 1:~3 ratio in MeCN. The core of 1 consists of a central octahedral Fe III ion held within a non-planar Fe 6 loop by three μ 3 -O 2- and three μ 2 -RO - arms from the three mda 2- chelates. Variable-temperature dc and ac magnetic susceptibility studies revealed dominant antiferromagnetic coupling, leading to a ground state spin of S = 5 / 2 . The ground state was confirmed by a fit of magnetization data collected in the 0.1–7.0 T and 1.8–10.0 K ranges. The four Fe 2 pairwise exchange parameters ( J 1 - J 4 ) were estimated by independent methods: theoretical calculations using either broken symmetry energy differences (-46.3, -16.2, -3.9, and - 28.1 cm -1 , respectively) or Green’s function approximation methods (-41.4, -14.8, -13.2, and - 24.7 cm -1 ), and a magnetostructural correlation (MSC) previously developed for high nuclearity Fe III /O complexes (-39.5, -13.8, -6.7, and - 23.5 cm -1 ). Additionally, the J 1 - J 4 obtained from the MSC and theoretical methods were used with the program PHI to both simulate χ M T vs T as well as to serve as reasonable input values to fit the experimental data (-41.0, -11.4, -5.0, and - 27.3 cm -1 ). Analysis of the J ij led to identification of the spin frustration effects operative and the resultant spin vector alignments at each Fe III ion, thus allowing for the rationalization of the experimental ground state.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

SMA millimeter observations of hot molecular cores

We present Submillimeter Array observations in the 1.3 mm continuum and the CH{sub 3}CN (12 {sub K}-11 {sub K}) line of 17 hot molecular cores associated with young high-mass stars. The angular resolution of the observations ranges from 1.''0 to 4.''0. The continuum observations reveal large (>3500 AU) dusty structures with gas masses from 7 to 375 M {sub ☉}, which probably surround multiple young stars. The CH{sub 3}CN line emission is detected toward all the molecular cores at least up to the K = 6 component and is mostly associated with the emission peaks of the dusty objects. We used the multiple K-components of the CH{sub 3}CN and both the rotational diagram method and a simultaneous synthetic local thermodynamic equilibrium model with the XCLASS program to estimate the temperatures and column densities of the cores. For all sources, we obtained reasonable fits from XCLASS by using a model that combines two components: an extended and warm envelope and a compact hot core of molecular gas, suggesting internal heating by recently formed massive stars. The rotational temperatures lie in the range of 40-132 K and 122-485 K for the extended and compact components, respectively. From the continuum and CH{sub 3}CN results, we infer fractional abundances from 10{sup –9} to 10{sup –7} toward the compact inner components, which increase with the rotational temperature. Our results agree with a chemical scenario in which the CH{sub 3}CN molecule is efficiently formed in the gas phase above 100-300 K, and its abundance increases with temperature.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spectral indices measurements using miniature fission chambers at the MINERVE zero-power reactor at CEA using calibration data obtained at the BR1 reactor at SCK.CEN

Spectral indices measurements performed in 2004 at the CEA MINERVE facility loaded with the R-UO{sub 2} lattice, using calibration data acquired at the SCK center dot CEN BR1 facility in 2001, resulted in ambivalent conclusions. On one hand, spectral indices involving only fissile isotopes gave consistent discrepancies between calculation and experiment. On the other hand, spectral indices involving both fissile and fertile isotopes, in particular the {sup 238}U(n, f)/{sup 235}U(n, f) spectral index, showed inconsistent results depending on the type of calibration data used. For different reasons, no definitive explanation was given at that time. In 2009, the preparation of the AMMON program at the EOLE facility motivated the manufacturing of a new set of detectors. At the same time, the re-installation of the R1-UO{sub 2} lattice in MINERVE provided the opportunity to carry out again a spectral indices measurement campaign. Nevertheless, although the isotopic compositions of active deposits were better known than previously, the comparison between experimental results and calculations still lead to inconsistent discrepancies. In April 2010, a new calibration series conducted again at the BR1 facility allowed the CEA to reanalyze the spectral indices measurements performed in 2009. With these very latest calibration data, experimental values of spectral indices finally matched calculations within the uncertainty margins. This paper also sums up the work that has been achieved to explain the incoherencies observed in 2004. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Proliferation Persuasion. Coercive Bargaining with Nuclear Technology

Why do states wait for prolonged periods of time with the technical capacity to produce nuclear weapons? Only a handful of countries have ever acquired the sensitive nuclear fuel cycle technology needed to produce fissile material for nuclear weapons. Yet the enduring trend over the last five decades is for these states to delay or forgo exercising the nuclear weapons option provided by uranium enrichment or plutonium reprocessing capabilities. I show that states pause at this threshold stage because they use nuclear technology to bargain for concessions from both allies and adversaries. But when does nuclear latency offer bargaining benefits? My central argument is that challengers must surmount a dilemma to make coercive diplomacy work: the more they threaten to proliferate, the harder it becomes to reassure others that compliance will be rewarded with nuclear restraint. I identify a range of mechanisms able to solve this credibility problem, from arms control over breakout capacity to third party mediation and confidence building measures. Since each step towards the bomb raises the costs of implementing these policies, a state hits a sweet spot when it first acquires enrichment and/or reprocessing (ENR) technology. Subsequent increases in proliferation capability generate diminishing returns at the bargaining table for two reasons: the state must go to greater lengths to make a credible nonproliferation promise, and nuclear programs exhibit considerable path dependency as they mature over time. Contrary to the conventional wisdom about power in world politics, less nuclear latency thereby yields more coercive threat advantages. I marshal new primary source evidence from archives and interviews to identify episodes in the historical record when states made clear decisions to use ENR technology as a bargaining chip, and employ this theory of proliferation persuasion to explain how Japan, North Korea, and Iran succeeded and failed to barter concessions from the United States. By clarifying when countries are able to leverage steps towards the bomb for international political gain, my work advances our understanding of proliferation and coercive diplomacy.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Low Temperature Waste Form for Supplemental Immobilization of Hanford Low Activity Waste - 17485

The Hanford site has approximately 56 million gallons of radioactive waste stored in 177 underground storage tanks. The Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) is being constructed to treat the waste but will only have sufficient capacity to treat about one-third of the Low Activity Waste (LAW) portion within the anticipated time-frame for completing the waste treatment mission. The LAW vitrification facility will need to be supplemented with additional LAW vitrification capacity or an alternate LAW immobilization technology. The LAW immobilization technologies considered must be capable of treating approximately 65% of Hanford's LAW and will be evaluated with respect to facilities required, quantity of final waste forms and secondary wastes produced, waste form performance data, technical viability, and life cycle cost and schedule estimates. A low temperature (i.e. non-thermal) waste form and treatment process is being evaluated to provide the additional LAW immobilization capacity. Low temperature, cementitious waste forms have been evaluated previously for immobilizing Hanford tank waste but were not further developed for various reasons. Over the past few years the Hanford Tank Operations Contractor has conducted a technology development program to evaluate a low temperature waste form for immobilization of Hanford LAW including formulation development and testing with a range of simulant compositions spiked with radioactive and hazardous contaminants of concern (COCs). The objectives of this program include; developing a low temperature waste form formulation that is robust with respect to both waste form performance and processing properties over a range of LAW compositions, demonstrating waste form performance with real waste, and conducting Engineering Scale testing to advance the technical maturity of the low temperature immobilization process. The purpose of this paper is to report progress toward these objectives, in particular testing with real waste including additives to enhance technetium and iodine retention. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗