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Results for “reliability estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Between Harmonic Crystal and Glass: Solids with Dimpled Potential-Energy Surfaces Having Multiple Local Energy Minima

Solids with dimpled potential-energy surfaces are ubiquitous in nature and, typically, exhibit structural (elastic or phonon) instabilities. Dimpled potentials are not harmonic; thus, the conventional quasiharmonic approximation at finite temperatures fails to describe anharmonic vibrations in such solids. At sufficiently high temperatures, their crystal structure is stabilized by entropy; in this phase, a diffraction pattern of a periodic crystal is combined with vibrational properties of a phonon glass. As temperature is lowered, the solid undergoes a symmetry-breaking transition and transforms into a lower-symmetry phase with lower lattice entropy. Here, we identify specific features in the potential-energy surface that lead to such polymorphic behavior; we establish reliable estimates for the relative energies and temperatures associated with the anharmonic vibrations and the solid–solid symmetry-breaking phase transitions. We show that computational phonon methods can be applied to address anharmonic vibrations in a polymorphic solid at fixed temperature. To illustrate the ubiquity of this class of materials, we present a range of examples (elemental metals, a shape-memory alloy, and a layered charge-density-wave system); we show that our theoretical predictions compare well with known experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

KELT-9 b’s Asymmetric TESS Transit Caused by Rapid Stellar Rotation and Spin–Orbit Misalignment

KELT-9 b is an ultra-hot Jupiter transiting a rapidly rotating, oblate early-A-type star in a polar orbit. We model the effect of rapid stellar rotation on KELT-9 b’s transit light curve using photometry from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite to constrain the planet’s true spin–orbit angle and to explore how KELT-9 b may be influenced by stellar gravity darkening. We constrain the host star’s equatorial radius to be 1.089 ± 0.017 times as large as its polar radius and its local surface brightness to vary by ∼38% between its hot poles and cooler equator. We model the stellar oblateness and surface brightness gradient and find that it causes the transit light curve to lack the usual symmetry around the time of minimum light. We take advantage of the light-curve asymmetry to constrain KELT-9 b’s true spin–orbit angle (87{sup ∘}{sub −11{sup ∘+10{sup {sup ∘}}}}), agreeing with Gaudi et al. that KELT-9 b is in a nearly polar orbit. We also apply a gravity-darkening correction to the spectral energy distribution model from Gaudi et al. and find that accounting for rapid rotation gives a better fit to available spectroscopy and yields a more reliable estimate for the star’s polar effective temperature.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Diffusion coefficients in the envelopes of white dwarfs

The diffusion of elements is a key process in understanding the unusual surface composition of white dwarfs and their spectral evolution. The diffusion coefficients of Paquette et al. have been widely used to model diffusion in white dwarfs. In this work, we perform new calculations of the coefficients of interdiffusion and ionic thermal diffusion with (1) a more advanced model that uses a recent modification of the calculation of the collision integrals that is more suitable for the partially ionized, partially degenerate, and moderately coupled plasma and (2) classical molecular dynamics. The coefficients are evaluated for silicon and calcium in white dwarf envelopes of hydrogen and helium. A comparison of our results with Paquette et al. shows that the latter systematically underestimates the coefficient of interdiffusion yet provides reliable estimates for the relatively weakly coupled plasmas found in nearly all types of stars, as well as in white dwarfs with hydrogen envelopes. In white dwarfs with cool helium envelopes (${T}_{\mathrm{eff}}$ < 15,000 K), the difference grows to more than a factor of two. We also explored the effect of the ionization model used to determine the charges of the ions and found that it can be a substantial source of discrepancy between different calculations. Finally, we consider the relative diffusion timescales of Si and Ca in the context of the pollution of white dwarf photospheres by accreted planetesimals and find factor of ≳3 differences between calculations based on Paquette et al. and our model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Halo Properties and Mass Functions of Groups/Clusters from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys DR9

Abstract Based on a large group/cluster catalog recently constructed from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys DR9 using an extended halo-based group finder, we measure and model the group–galaxy weak-lensing signals for groups/clusters in a few redshift bins within redshift range 0.1 ≤ z < 0.6. Here, the background shear signals are obtained based on the DECaLS survey shape catalog, derived with the F ourier _Q uad method. We divide the lens samples into five equispaced redshift bins and seven mass bins, which allow us to probe the redshift and mass dependence of the lensing signals, and hence the resulting halo properties. In addition to these sample selections, we also check the signals around different group centers, e.g., the brightest central galaxy, the luminosity-weighted center, and the number-weighted center. We use a lensing model that includes off-centering to describe the lensing signals that we measure for all mass and redshift bins. The results demonstrate that our model predictions for the halo masses, biases, and concentrations are stable and self-consistent among different samples for different group centers. Taking advantage of the very large and complete sample of groups/clusters, as well as the reliable estimations of their halo masses, we provide measurements of the cumulative halo mass functions up to redshift z = 0.6, with a mass precision at 0.03 ∼ 0.09 dex.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Blanco DECam Bulge Survey (BDBS). VII. Multiple Populations in Globular Clusters of the Galactic Bulge

We present photometric evidence for multiple stellar populations (MPs) in 14 globular clusters (GCs) toward the southern Galactic bulge. The photometric data come as part of the Blanco DECam Bulge Survey, which is a deep, wide-field near-UV-near-IR (ugrizY) survey of the southern Galactic bulge. Here, we present the first systematic study of bulge GC multiple populations with deep photometry including the u band, which is a crucial indicator of the abundance of CNO-bearing molecules in stellar atmospheres. We identify cluster members using Gaia EDR3 proper motion measurements, and then isolate red giant branch stars using r versus u - r color–magnitude diagrams. We find evidence suggesting all 14 clusters host at least two populations, and NGC 6441, NGC 6626, and NGC 6656 appear to have at least three populations. Many of these clusters are not part of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) surveys nor do they have comprehensive spectroscopic analyses so we are presenting the first evidence of MPs in several clusters. Not only do we find a strong anticorrelation between the fraction of first-generation stars and cluster absolute V magnitude, but the correlation coefficient and cluster-to-cluster scatter are similar to the results obtained from HST. Our ground-based data extend to much larger radial distances than similar HST observations, enabling a reliable estimate of the global fraction of first-generation stars in each cluster. This study demonstrates that ground-based u-band photometry as provided by DECam will prove powerful in the study of multiple populations in resolved GCs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Elimination of remnant phases in low-temperature growth of wurtzite ScAlN by molecular-beam epitaxy

Growth of wurtzite ScxAl1−xN (x < 0.23) by plasma-assisted molecular-beam epitaxy on cplane GaN at high temperatures significantly alters the extracted lattice constants of the material due to defects likely associated with remnant phases. In contrast, ScAlN grown below a composition-dependent threshold temperature exhibits uniform alloy distribution, reduced defect density, and atomic-step surface morphology. The c-plane lattice constant of this low-temperature ScAlN varies with composition as expected from previous theoretical calculations and can be used to reliably estimate alloy composition. Moreover, lattice-matched Sc0.18Al0.82N/GaN multiquantum wells grown under these conditions display strong and narrow near-infrared intersubband absorption lines that confirm advantageous optical and electronic properties.

Dzuba, Brandon↗
DOE OSTI2025

Diffusion kinetics of 3 He in pyroxene and plagioclase and applications to cosmogenic exposure dating and paleothermometry in mafic rocks

In this study, we investigate the diffusivity of cosmogenic 3 He in a variety of plagioclase and pyroxene compositions, and its application to paleothermometry and exposure dating in these minerals, through stepwise degassing experiments. While cosmogenic 3 He has been utilized for exposure dating in pyroxene for decades due to its retentivity, plagioclase, often found along with pyroxene in mafic rocks, is generally less retentive of cosmogenic noble gas. However, the diffusivity of 3 He in either plagioclase or pyroxene has not yet been measured quantitatively. A challenge in measuring diffusion kinetics by step-degassing experiments in poorly retentive minerals is the fact that significant amounts of He can be lost prior to the experiment. To address this issue, we apply a forward “multiple diffusion domain” (MDD) inversion model that includes model predictions of initial gas loss during irradiation and storage of the samples to account for this observation and add constraints to the diffusion parameters. We find that 3 He diffusivity in plagioclase appears to be highly variable. This variability can be explained by the MDD inversion models' inability to constrain the diffusion parameters when significant gas has been lost during irradiation and/or prolonged storage prior to experiment analysis, resulting in an overestimation of 3 He retentivity. Plagioclase samples that were kept frozen after irradiation, to limit this initial gas loss, yielded the most reliable estimate of diffusion kinetics. We find that 3 He in plagioclase is diffusively lost at Earth's surface temperatures on a timescale of 100 years and is therefore unsuitable for surface temperature paleothermometry. On the contrary, we find cosmogenic 3 He in pyroxene to be retentive at Earth's surface temperatures on a 1-million-year timescale.

Bergelin, Marie [Berkeley Geochronology Center (BG↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geometric Tail Approximation for Reliability and Survivability

A common problem in developing high-reliability systems is estimating the reliability for a population of components that cannot be 100% tested. The radiation survivability of a population of components is often estimated by testing a very small sample to some multiple of the required specification level, known as an overtest. Given a successful test with a sufficient overtest margin, the population of components is assumed to have the required survivability or radiation reliability. However, no mathematical justification for such claims has been crafted without making aggressive assumptions regarding the statistics of the unknown distribution. Here we illustrate a new approach that leverages geometric bounding arguments founded on relatively modest distribution assumptions to produce conservative estimates of component reliability.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Distributed Energy Resource (DER) Reliability for Backup Electric Power Systems

Hospitals, emergency services, military bases, ports, airports, industries, commercial facilities, and others rely on backup power systems to provide electricity for their critical loads during grid outages. The purpose of this report it to provide accurate reliability information on commonly deployed distributed energy resources (DERs) to improve quantitative estimates for the reliability of these backup power systems during a grid outage. A backup power system consists of DERs, an electric distribution system with its associated switches and other devices, and mechanisms to control and manage the flow of electricity. Too often, facilities and campuses fail to properly quantify the reliability of their backup power systems. DERs are assumed to be 100% reliable, with the only concern being the availability of fuel. Such assumptions can lead to gross errors in the backup system's reliability estimates, particularly for long-duration outages. This report provides a set of estimates for reliability of emergency diesel generators (EDGs), natural gas prime generators and combined heat and power (CHP) prime movers, solar photovoltaics (PV), wind turbines, and Li-ion battery energy storage systems (BESS). The estimates are derived from empirical data when available and supplemented by modeling results when needed. These reliability estimates are for the DERs ability to provide power during a grid outage, ranging from an hour to 2 weeks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

CAMERA: A method for cost-aware, adaptive, multifidelity, efficient reliability analysis

Estimating probability of failure in aerospace systems is a critical requirement for flight certification and qualification. Failure probability estimation involves resolving tails of probability distributions, and Monte Carlo sampling methods are intractable when expensive high-fidelity simulations have to be queried. Here, we propose a method to use models of multiple fidelities that trade accuracy for computational efficiency. Specifically, we propose the use of multifidelity Gaussian process models to efficiently fuse models at multiple fidelity, thereby offering a cheap surrogate model that emulates the original model at all fidelities. Furthermore, we propose a novel sequential acquisition function based experiment design framework that can automatically select samples from appropriate fidelity models to make predictions about quantities of interest at the highest fidelity. We use our proposed approach in an importance sampling setting and demonstrate our method on the failure level set and probability estimation on synthetic test functions and two real-world applications, namely, the reliability analysis of a gas turbine engine blade using a finite element method and a transonic aerodynamic wing test case using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show that our method predicts the failure boundary and probability more accurately and at a fraction of the computational cost compared with using just a single expensive high-fidelity model. Finally, we show that our sequential approach is guaranteed to asymptotically converge to the true failure boundary with high probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reliability Prediction using FMEA, FTA, and Related Techniques [Slides]

Summary: We presented a reliability analysis framework. We made point estimates of reliability using reliability block diagrams, fault trees, success trees and estimates with uncertainty using expert elicitation, Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian analysis. Expert elicitation of failure modes and probabilities is labor-intensive, but critical. Bayesian analysis updates information from expert elicitation with data from reliability and aging tests (aging/compatibility data are needed to estimate lower-bound reliabilities at end of life). Estimation by more than one method helps insure consistency and accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the Reliability of Parameter Inferences in a Multiscale Model for Transport in Stream Corridors

Nonreacting tracer tests capture information about physical processes in transient storage zones including the hyporheic zone (HZ). However, reliably extracting this information from breakthrough curves (BTCs) and distinguishing the effects of in-channel dispersion and transient storage are well-known challenges. Using BTCs from a nonreacting tracer test monitored at multiple locations, we explore ways for reliable parameter estimations. The identifiability of parameters is greatly influenced by the choice of forward and inverse modeling frameworks in addition to the quality of the data. Our forward model is a recently proposed multiscale model that uses subgrid transport models written in the Lagrangian form to represent transport along a diverse set of HZ pathways with a shape-free distribution of travel times. Joint distributions of HZ and channel parameters are estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. Numerical experiments show ambiguity between channel dispersion and HZ transport when the reach length is too short to allow significant solute-HZ interaction, the observation period is too brief to observe the tailing behavior, or the solute source is spread in time. In contrast, we obtained reliable parameter estimates by simultaneously fitting BTCs observed at different locations in the test reach using a single set of HZ parameters and section-specific channel areas and dispersion coefficients. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the estimation of travel time distributions, HZ exchange rates, and channel parameters in a new multiscale approach and offers guidance for extracting reliable parameter estimates from multiple BTCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A note on the reliability of goal-oriented error estimates for Galerkin finite element methods with nonlinear functionals

Here, we consider estimating the discretization error in a nonlinear functional J (u) in the setting of an abstract variational problem: find u ϵ $\mathscr{V}$ such that B (u, φ) = L (φ) ∀φ ϵ $\mathscr{V}$, as approximated by a Galerkin finite element method. Here, $\mathscr{V}$ is a Hilbert space, B (. , .) is a bilinear form, and L (∙) is a linear functional. We consider well-known error estimates η of the form J (u) - J (u h ) ≈ η = L (z) - B (u h , z), where u h denotes a finite element approximation to u, and z denotes the solution to an auxiliary adjoint variational problem. We show that there exist nonlinear functionals for which error estimates of this form are not reliable, even in the presence of an exact adjoint solution z. An estimate η is said to be reliable if there exists a constant C ϵ $\mathbb{R}$ >0 independent of u h such that |J (u) - J (u h )| ≤ C|η|. We present several example pairs of bilinear forms and nonlinear functionals where reliability of η is not achieved.

A posteriori↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrologic applicability of satellite-based precipitation estimates for irrigation water management in the data-scarce region

Reliable precipitation estimates are crucial for planning and managing water resources, monitoring hydrologic extremes, and fulfilling irrigation water requirements. Accurate precipitation estimates are particularly challenging in complex mountain terrains, where monitoring gauges are often sparsely distributed due to their remote locations, and high installation and long-term operation costs. Recent advances in satellite-based precipitation estimates offer promising opportunities to improve our understanding of hydrologic processes and their applications for irrigation water management. Several datasets are available varying considerably in terms of their data sources, quality control methods, estimation procedure, and spatiotemporal resolutions. Choosing the most suitable dataset for a particular application is a complex task. In this study, we (1) evaluate the performance of six satellite-based precipitation estimates (SPEs): i) CHIRPS v2.0, ii) CMORPH v1.0, iii) ERA5, iv) IMERG v6, v) MSWEP v2.8, and vi) PERSIANN-CDR against the gauge precipitation using continuous statistical and categorical indices, (2) integrate SPEs with a calibrated semi-distributed hydrologic model to predict streamflow, and (3) demonstrate practical implications of improved streamflow prediction for irrigation water management in the central Himalayan region, Nepal. Our results illustrate that satellite-based precipitation estimates have competitive performance in capturing a wide range of rainfall characteristics, with demonstrated variability across river basins and time scales. Further, there are no significant discrepancies observed in satellite-based precipitation estimates for estimating irrigation water requirements for the three major crops (maize, wheat, and paddy) during the cropping period across the selected river basins, showing a greater promise for irrigation water management planning and decision making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Source Characterization of the Declared North Korean Nuclear Tests From Regional Distance Coda Wave Spectral Ratios

Abstract Seismic observations of underground nuclear explosions provide crucial data on source yield and depth that cannot easily be estimated from other geophysical methods. However, it is difficult to obtain reliable yield estimates for test sites for which we do not have direct seismic calibration experiments. To obtain source information from uncalibrated sites and paths, local and regional seismic records of six, proximal, declared underground nuclear explosions in North Korea are used to compute spectral ratios of narrow‐band waveform envelopes of body‐wave coda that remove path and site effects to reveal precise, relative source moment. The yields of these explosions are obtained from the observed source ratios by simultaneously fitting the classical source model of Mueller and Murphy (1971), https://doi.org/10.1785/bssa0610061675 to all event pairs. The source model provides an impressive fit to the observations considering that the P phase coda derived source spectral ratios did not require a prior knowledge of the source or regionally calibrated corrections to be applied to the data. However, the observed corner frequencies from S wave coda spectral ratios are lower than the source model predictions, but are well fit by models calculated using the corner frequency consistent with the Fisk conjecture. The results presented here provide novel constraints on the spectral distributions of the energy radiated by the sources of the DPRK test series, and allows for an independent evaluation of existing estimated source model parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Equipping Neural Network Surrogates with Uncertainty for Propagation in Physical Systems

Coarse-grained or filtered models typically rely on closure models to account for unresolved scales. For instance, large eddy simulation for modeling turbulent fluid flows explicitly resolves the largest scales, but requires modeling closure terms to account for the sub-filter scales. With the vast amount of data available from high-fidelity simulations, there are unique opportunities to leverage data-driven modeling techniques to formulate expressive and flexible closure models. Despite their flexibility, data-driven models struggle in domain shift settings, i.e. when deployed in configurations not captured in the training dataset. In particular, the efficacy of neural network surrogates is difficult to assess a priori due to the deterministic, point-estimate nature of predictions. In high-consequence applications, such models require reliable uncertainty estimates in the data-informed and out-of-distribution regimes. To quantify uncertainties in both regimes, we employ Bayesian neural networks which are able to capture both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. We will discuss challenges associated with the training and evaluation of these networks. Furthermore, we will discuss uncertainty embedding strategies to enable efficient sampling and propagation of uncertainty through high-fidelity simulations.

Bayesian neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of planetary boundary layer height from ceilometer with ARM radiosonde data

Abstract. Ceilometer measurements of aerosol backscatter profiles have been widely used to provide continuous planetary boundary layer height (PBLHT) estimations. To investigate the robustness of ceilometer-estimated PBLHT under different atmospheric conditions, we compared ceilometer- and radiosonde-estimated PBLHTs using multiple years of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) ceilometer and balloon-borne sounding data at ARM fixed-location atmospheric observatories and from ARM mobile facilities deployed around the world for various field campaigns. These observatories cover from the tropics to the polar regions and over both ocean and land surfaces. Statistical comparisons of ceilometer-estimated PBLHTs from the Vaisala CL31 ceilometer data with radiosonde-estimated PBLHTs from the ARM PBLHT-SONDE Value-added Product (VAP) are performed under different atmospheric conditions including stable and unstable atmospheric boundary layer, low-level cloud-free conditions, and cloudy conditions at these ARM observatories. Under unstable conditions, good comparisons are found between ceilometer- and radiosonde-estimated PBLHTs at ARM low- and mid-latitude land observatories. However, it is still challenging to obtain reliable PBLHT estimations over ocean surfaces even using radiosonde data. Under stable conditions, ceilometer- and radiosonde-estimated PBLHTs have weak correlations. We compare different PBLHT estimations utilizing the Heffter, the Liu–Liang, and the bulk Richardson number methods applied to radiosonde data with ceilometer-estimated PBLHT. We find that ceilometer-estimated PBLHT compares better with the Liu–Liang method under unstable conditions and compares better with the bulk Richardson number method under stable conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Power Network State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements

The operation of distribution networks is becoming increasingly volatile, due to fast variations of renewables and, hence, net-loading conditions. To perform a reliable state estimation under these conditions, this paper considers the case where measurements from meters, phasor measurement units, and distributed energy resources are collected and processed in real time to produce estimates of the state at a fast time scale. Streams of measurements collected in real time and at heterogenous rates render the underlying processing asynchronous, and poses severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms. In this work, a real-time state estimation algorithm is proposed, where data are processed on the fly. Starting from a regularized least-squares model, and leveraging appropriate linear models, the proposed scheme boils down to a linear dynamical system where the state is updated based on the previous estimate and on the measurement gathered from a few available sensors. The estimation error is shown to be always bounded under mild condition. Numerical simulations are provided to corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗