Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “resource probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7

Koopman–von Neumann approach to quantum simulation of nonlinear classical dynamics

Quantum computers can be used to simulate nonlinear non-Hamiltonian classical dynamics on phase space by using the generalized Koopman–von Neumann formulation of classical mechanics. The Koopman–von Neumann formulation implies that the conservation of the probability distribution function on phase space, as expressed by the Liouville equation, can be recast as an equivalent Schrödinger equation on Hilbert space with a Hermitian Hamiltonian operator and a unitary propagator. This Schrödinger equation is linear in the momenta because it derives from a constrained Hamiltonian system with twice the classical phase-space dimension. A quantum computer with finite resources can be used to simulate a finite-dimensional approximation of this unitary evolution operator. Quantum simulation of classical dynamics is exponentially more efficient than a deterministic Eulerian discretization of the Liouville equation if the Koopman–von Neumann Hamiltonian is sparse. Utilizing quantum walk techniques for state preparation and amplitude estimation for the calculation of observables leads to a quadratic improvement over classical probabilistic Monte Carlo algorithms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Quantum search on noisy intermediate-scale quantum devices

Abstract Quantum search algorithm (also known as Grover's algorithm) lays the foundation for many other quantum algorithms. Although it is very simple, its implementation is limited on noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) processors. Grover's algorithm was designed without considering the physical resources, such as depth, in the real implementations. Therefore, Grover's algorithm can be improved for NISQ devices. In this paper, we demonstrate how to implement quantum search algorithms better on NISQ devices. We present detailed benchmarks of the five-qubit quantum search algorithm on different quantum processors, including IBMQ, IonQ, and Honeywell quantum devices. We report the highest success probability of the five-qubit search algorithm compared to previous works. Our results show that designing the error-aware quantum search algorithms is possible, which can maximally harness the power of NISQ computers.

Physics↗

Fragility Functions Resource Report: Documented Sources for Electricity and Water Resilience Valuation

Fragility curves provide the vulnerability between hazard intensity and an asset. Federal installations may include many different electricity and water infrastructure types (or assets) such as generators, wind turbines, solar PV, switch yards, substations and power lines as well as water distribution systems that could be affected by different hazards. The vulnerability of each asset is a function of its age, type of materials and maintenance. In addition, the vulnerability changes with the hazards intensity and has a probability distribution function associated with it. The fragility functions are used in conjunction with hazard probability and consequence valuations to determine the values at risk for examination of investment grade analyses of alternative mitigation strategies. This document provides examples of fragility functions and links to their sources for different electricity and water infrastructure assets by hazard type.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Microgrid Resilience: A Holistic and Context-Aware Resilience Metric

Microgrids present an effective solution for the coordinated deployment of various distributed energy resources and furthermore provide myriad additional benefits such as resilience, decreased carbon footprint, and reliability to energy consumers and the energy system as a whole. Boosting the resilience of distribution systems is another major benefit of microgrids. This is because they can also serve as a backup power source when the utility grid's operations are interrupted due to either high-probability low-impact events like a component failure or low-probability high-impact events - be it a natural disaster or a planned cyberattack. However, the degree to which any particular system can defend, adapt, and restore normal operation depends on various factors including the type and severity of events to which a microgrid is subjected. These factors, in turn, are dependent on the geographical location of the deployed microgrid as well as the cyber risk profile of the site where the microgrid is operating. Therefore, in this work, we attempt to capture this multi-dimensional interplay of various factors in quantifying the ability of the microgrid to be resilient in these varying aspects. This paper, thus, proposes a customized site-specific quantification of the resilience strength for the individual microgrid's capability to absorb, restore, and adapt to the changing circumstances for sustaining the critical load when a low-probability high-impact event occurs - termed as - context-aware resilience metric. We also present a case study to illustrate the key elements of our integrated analytical approach.

microgrid↗

On the importance of color in mass spectrometry imaging

Mass spectrometry imaging (MSI) data visualization relies on heatmaps to show the spatial distribution and measured abundances of molecules within a sample. Non-uniform color gradients such as jet are still commonly used to visualize MSI data, increasing the probability of data misinterpretation and false conclusions. Also, the use of non-uniform color gradients and the combination of hues used in common colormaps makes it challenging for people with color vision deficiencies (CVDs) to visualize and accurately interpret data. Here we present best practices for choosing a colormap to accurately display MSI data, improve readability, and accommodate all CVDs. We also provide other resources on the misuse of color in the scientific field and resources on scientifically derived colormaps presented herein.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Waif Gopher Tortoise Survival and Site Fidelity Following Translocation

Gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) are among the most commonly translocated reptiles. While there are risks associated with any translocation, waif tortoises— animals frequently of unknown origin that have been displaced from the wild and often held in human possession for various reasons and durations—are generally excluded from translocation projects due to heightened concerns of introducing pathogens and uncertainty about the post-release survival of these individuals. If these risks could be managed, waif tortoises could have conservation value, as they can provide the needed numbers to stabilize populations. In the early 1990s, the discovery of an isolated population of gopher tortoises (≤15 individuals) near Aiken, South Carolina, USA, prioritized establishment of the Aiken Gopher Tortoise Heritage Preserve (AGTHP). Due to the population’s need for augmentation and the site’s isolation from other tortoise populations, the AGTHP provided the opportunity to evaluate the post-release survival of translocated waif tortoises without compromising a viable population. Since 2006, >260 waif tortoises have been introduced to the preserve. Using a Cormack-Jolly-Seber modeling framework to analyze release records and capture histories from trapping efforts in 2017 and 2018, we estimated the long-term apparent survival and site fidelity of this population composed largely of waif tortoises. We estimated annual apparent survival probabilities to be high (≥0.90) for subadult, adult male, and adult female tortoises, and these rates were similar to those reported for wild-to-wild translocated gopher tortoises and those from unmanipulated populations. Of the tortoises recaptured within the boundaries of the preserve, 75% were located within 400 m of their release location. Furthermore, these results suggest that waif tortoises could be an important resource in reducing the extirpation risk of isolated populations.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Adaptive gene loss in the common bean pan-genome during range expansion and domestication

The common bean ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is a crucial legume crop and an ideal evolutionary model to study adaptive diversity in wild and domesticated populations. Here, we present a common bean pan-genome based on five high-quality genomes and whole-genome reads representing 339 genotypes. It reveals ~234 Mb of additional sequences containing 6,905 protein-coding genes missing from the reference, constituting 49% of all presence/absence variants (PAVs). More non-synonymous mutations are found in PAVs than core genes, probably reflecting the lower effective population size of PAVs and fitness advantages due to the purging effect of gene loss. Our results suggest pan-genome shrinkage occurred during wild range expansion. Selection signatures provide evidence that partial or complete gene loss was a key adaptive genetic change in common bean populations with major implications for plant adaptation. The pan-genome is a valuable resource for food legume research and breeding for climate change mitigation and sustainable agriculture.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Cyber Attack Sequences Generation for Electric Power Grid

Security assessment of cyber-physical energy systems (CPESs) such as the electric power grid is a critical operation to maintain availability, reliability, and quality of service in the presence of persistent threats from malicious cyber actors. Existing security assessment approaches such as penetration testing and red teaming rely on subject matter expert experience and forensic cyber analysis of historical events to perform realistic, threat-informed assessments of CPES defense. CPESs have a large attack surface because of the heterogeneity and complexity of underlying topology, devices, measurements, and vulnerabilities. The aforementioned approaches lead to partial coverage of the attack surface with a large set of unknown but possible exploits. There is a need to automate the CPES attack surface discovery and contextualize it for relevant, highly probable, real-world attack scenarios. We propose a methodology and framework to facilitate the discovery of the CPES attack surface. We present a multilayer attack graph with ranked attack sequences to describe CPES failure scenarios. We present a work-in-progress framework that lists key components to automate the attack modeling and sequence generation. We demonstrate the published National Electric Sector Cybersecurity Organization Resource CPES failure scenario to highlight the trustworthiness of generated attack sequences.

Dutta, Ashutosh↗

Reduce, reuse, reinterpret: An end-to-end pipeline for recycling particle physics results

Searches for new physics at the Large Hadron Collider have constrained many models of physics beyond the Standard Model. Many searches also provide resources that allow them to be reinterpreted in the context of other models. We describe a reinterpretation pipeline that examines previously untested models of new physics using supplementary information from ATLAS Supersymmetry (SUSY) searches in a way that provides accurate constraints even for models that differ meaningfully from the benchmark models of the original analysis. The public analysis information, such as public analysis routines and serialized probability models, is combined with common event generation and simulation toolkits MADGRAPH, PYTHIA8, and DELPHES into workflows steered by TOML configuration files, and bundled into the mapyde Python package. The use of mapyde is demonstrated by constraining previously untested SUSY models with compressed sleptons and electroweakinos using ATLAS results.

Stark, Giordon↗

Codebase release 0.5 for mapyde

Searches for new physics at the Large Hadron Collider have constrained many models of physics beyond the Standard Model. Many searches also provide resources that allow them to be reinterpreted in the context of other models. We describe a reinterpretation pipeline that examines previously untested models of new physics using supplementary information from ATLAS Supersymmetry (SUSY) searches in a way that provides accurate constraints even for models that differ meaningfully from the benchmark models of the original analysis. The public analysis information, such as public analysis routines and serialized probability models, is combined with common event generation and simulation toolkits MADGRAPH, PYTHIA8, and DELPHES into workflows steered by TOML configuration files, and bundled into the mapyde Python package. The use of mapyde is demonstrated by constraining previously untested SUSY models with compressed sleptons and electroweakinos using ATLAS results.

Stark, Giordon↗

On Finding Black Holes in Photometric Microlensing Surveys

There are expected to be millions of isolated black holes in the galaxy resulting from the deaths of massive stars. Measuring the abundance and properties of this remnant population would shed light on the end stages of stellar evolution and the evolution paths of black hole systems. Detecting isolated black holes is currently only possible via gravitational microlensing, which has so far yielded one definitive detection. The difficulty in finding microlensing black holes lies in having to choose a small subset of events, based on characteristics of their light curves, to allocate expensive and scarce follow-up resources to confirm the identity of the lens. Current methods either rely on simple cuts in parameter space without using the full distribution information or are only effective on small subsets of events. In this paper, we present a new lens classification method. The classifier takes in posterior constraints on light-curve parameters and combines them with a Galactic simulation to estimate the lens class probability. This method is flexible and can be used with any set of microlensing light-curve parameters, making it applicable to large samples of events. We make this classification framework available via the popclass Python package. We apply the classifier to ~10,000 microlensing events from the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment survey and find 23 high-probability black hole candidates. Our classifier also suggests that the only known isolated black hole is an observational outlier, according to current Galactic models, and the allocation of astrometric follow-up on this event was a high-risk strategy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluation of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecast from the North American Multi-Model ensemble phase II (NMME-2) over the contiguous U.S.

The second phase of the North America Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME-2) provides globally available Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecasts with a daily resolution. The S2S precipitation forecasts are getting increasing attention for their potentials in providing hydrometeorological forcing information for water resources planning at an extended range. However, the forecast skills of many existing S2S forecast products will significantly decrease when the lead time increases, hindering their applicability for watershed-scale hydrologic modeling. Therefore, forecast validation and large-scale evaluation are of great importance for water resources planning and hydrological applications. In this study, we comprehensively evaluate the S2S precipitation forecasts from the NMME-2 dataset over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and during the study period from 1982 to 2011. Three aspects of precipitation forecast capabilities are compared and analyzed: bias, skill scores, and the ability to predict extreme precipitation events. The Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) is used as ground truth reference. Differs from other regional forecast validation study, we further examined and analyzed the dependences of NMME-2 precipitation forecast skills according to different seasonality, geographical locations, and lead times. Results show that the forecast biases are not sensitive to lead times but are seasonally dependent of all NMME-2 models. Overestimations are found in the Western U.S. in cooler seasons while underestimations are observed in the central regions of the U.S. in warmer seasons. The forecast skill of all individual NMME-2 models generally decreases as increases of lead times. The simple model averaging (SMA) of five NMME-2 models demonstrates a higher forecast skill than any individual NMME-2 models. Spatially, the highest forecast skill scores are observed at coastal areas in the Western U.S. with an one-week lead time. As compared to the historical resampled forecasts, NMME-2 also shows better performance in predicting extreme precipitation events above 99% percentiles and below 1% percentiles with higher probability of detections and lower false alarm ratios. Finally, the obtained results suggest the great potentials of NMME-2 precipitation forecasts in assisting ensemble hydrologic forecasts at the S2S scale over the CONUS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Recent Advances in Cladding Material Extraction from Fuels in Nuclear Fuel Cycles

An improved recycling and recovery process for the cladding material from spent nuclear fuels is very important toward confirming nuclear energy to support ongoing sustainable development of nuclear management by reducing waste and conserving resources. Nuclear spent fuel cladding materials such as zirconium alloys have economic values and can be recovered, and their recovery eliminates problems in waste disposal and conserves valuable resources. Over 110 published reports and journal articles are reviewed and summarized herein, with a main focus on documenting recovery techniques used to recover cladding materials from spent nuclear fuel and recent developments. Several recovery techniques which are used at present times, such as mechanical separation, chemical dissolution, and hydrometallurgical processes have been covered with examples and discussions. Difficulties within the recovery process are also discussed, and most probable areas for future research in improving efficiency and sustainability of recovering cladding material are identified and discussed at the end. Here, this review could be an important document to the field of spent nuclear fuel reprocessing, recovering valuables and thereby offering guidance on how to effectively manage, safely handle, and reduce nuclear waste. In addition to reducing the volume and radiotoxicity of high-level waste, this review also highlights the potential economic benefit of recovering zirconium from spent fuel cladding by relating typical zirconium metal prices to the mass of cladding per tonne of spent fuel, illustrating that the recoverable material value is non-negligible compared with back-end fuel-cycle costs.

Mondal, Kunal [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗

An Approach to Dependence Assessment in Human Reliability Analysis: Application of Lag and Linger Effects

Dependence assessment refers to an approach used in human reliability analysis (HRA) to adjust a human error probability (HEP) for the following action by considering the impact of the preceding action. It has been known to significantly affect the overall results of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). If the dependence assessment is not adequate, the result could be unconvincing for explaining the operator failures in the context of PSA. To date, several methods and some recent research have identified suggestions for treating dependence issues in HRA; however, these are still exclusively based on the intrinsic approach of the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP), an HRA method. THERP inevitably has a challenge with the subjectivity of expert evaluation as well as the requirement for PSA and HRA expertise with resource-intensive and time-consuming processes. This paper suggests an approach to dependence assessment that could not only minimize the influence of expert judgment, but also saves time to perform the analysis with reasonable manpower. It modifies existing HRA methods with considering lag and linger effects to apply dependence effects for them. Based on a representative HRA method, i.e., Standardized Plant Analysis Risk - HRA (SPAR-H), guidance for how to apply lag and linger effects for the HRA method is suggested. Then, an investigation is carried out to compare quantification results of the revised HRA method with that of the original approach based on experimental data.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Preliminary Plan for Evaluation of Reactor Pressure Vessel Surveillance Materials from Palisades Nuclear Generating Station

The Palisades Nuclear Generating Station (PNGS), located in Michigan, is owned and operated by Entergy. It is a Combustion Engineering 2-loop pressurized water reactor (PWR) producing 805 MWe (2,565 MWth). The PNGS was built between 1967 and 1970, with approval to operate at full power in 1973; the plant’s original license was due to expire on March 24, 2011. An application for 20-year extension was filed in 2005 with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and was granted on January 18, 2007. Although the plant was scheduled for decommissioning by 2031, Entergy currently plans to close the PNGS in 2022. The PNGS included in its reactor pressure vessel (RPV) surveillance program a capsule, designated A-60, containing specimens of one of the vessel plates and a weld metal with nickel content of about 1.36 wt% and copper content of about 0.20 wt%. This capsule was irradiated to a fluence of 1.8 x 10 20 n/cm 2 . The capsule was removed from its surveillance position in 1995 and has been resident in the spent fuel pool since that time. The material is also of special interest because of its very high nickel content and because of the potential for development of NiMnSi (nickel-manganese-silicon) precipitates, dubbed “late blooming phases.” The surveillance program also includes a capsule, designated T-150, dedicated specifically for thermal aging, which would provide results for at least 33 effective full power years, which is beyond the current thermal-aging database for such materials. Given that license extensions to 60 years of operation have been approved by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission for most of the currently operating light water reactors in the United States, and that the first extension to 80 years was recently approved, there exists the probability that some RPVs will reach and possibly exceed a fast neutron fluence (> 1 MeV) of 1 x 10 20 n/cm 2 . This is a fluence regime with no US surveillance data and very little test reactor data, except for the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program–sponsored University of California Santa Barbara Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) ATR-2 project. Thus, the materials in the A-60 capsule represent a valuable resource for directly exploring the effects of commercial surveillance irradiation on a typical plate and a high-nickel weld with similar materials irradiated in the ATR-2 test reactor project. This report provides background information for the surveillance program, previous results of surveillance materials testing, the preliminary plan for capsule retrieval and disassembly, and the plan for testing and microstructural examination of the mechanical test specimens of these unique materials to assess the features induced by very high irradiation fluence or very long thermal aging time

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018

In this study, we analyse the role of climate change in the forestfires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of 2018 from ameteorological perspective. This is done by studying the Canadian FireWeather Index (FWI) based on sub-daily data, both in reanalysis data sets(ERA-Interim, ERA5, the Japanese 55 year Reanalysis, JRA-55, and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2, MERRA-2) and three large-ensemble climatemodels (EC-Earth, weather@home, W@H, and Community Earth System Model, CESM) simulations. The FWI, based on reanalysis, correlates well with the observed burnt area in summer (r=0.6 to 0.8). We find that the maximum FWI in July 2018 had return times of ~24 years (90 % CI, confidence interval, > 10 years) for southern and northern Sweden. Furthermore, we find a negative trend of the FWI for southern Sweden over the 1979 to 2017 time period in the reanalyses, yielding a non-significant reduced probability of such an event. However, the short observational record, large uncertainty between the reanalysis products and large natural variability of the FWI give a large confidence interval around this number that easily includes no change, so we cannot draw robust conclusions from reanalysis data. The three large-ensembles with climate models point to a roughly 1.1 (0.9 to 1.4) times increased probability (non-significant) for such events in the current climate relative to preindustrial climate. For a future climate (2 °C warming), we find a roughly 2 (1.5 to 3) times increased probability for such events relative to the preindustrial climate. The increased fire weather risk is mainly attributed to the increase intemperature. The other main factor, i.e. precipitation during summer months, isprojected to increase for northern Sweden and decrease for southern Sweden. We, however, do not find a clear change in prolonged dry periods in summer months that could explain the increased fire weather risk in the climate models. In summary, we find a (non-significant) reduced probability of such eventsbased on reanalyses, a small (non-significant) increased probability due to global warming up to now and a more robust (significant) increase in the risk for such events in the future based on the climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework

As more variable renewable energy sources are added to the grid, the role of hydropower as a reliable baseline and firming resource is growing more critical. However, the U.S hydropower fleet is not fully prepared to face modern issues such as cybersecurity threats. Hydropower accounts for 37% of U.S. utility-scale renewable electricity but is challenged by diverse infrastructure and legacy devices that predate modern security practices. While new cybersecurity solutions cannot simply be added to current hydropower generation and operation technologies, custom cybersecurity assessments can reveal system-specific threats and risk probabilities and identify mitigating enhancements.

cybersecurity valuation methodology↗