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DOE OSTI2020

The cis-regulatory codes of response to combined heat and drought stress in Arabidopsis thaliana

Abstract Plants respond to their environment by dynamically modulating gene expression. A powerful approach for understanding how these responses are regulated is to integrate information about cis-regulatory elements (CREs) into models called cis-regulatory codes. Transcriptional response to combined stress is typically not the sum of the responses to the individual stresses. However, cis-regulatory codes underlying combined stress response have not been established. Here we modeled transcriptional response to single and combined heat and drought stress in Arabidopsis thaliana. We grouped genes by their pattern of response (independent, antagonistic and synergistic) and trained machine learning models to predict their response using putative CREs (pCREs) as features (median F-measure = 0.64). We then developed a deep learning approach to integrate additional omics information (sequence conservation, chromatin accessibility and histone modification) into our models, improving performance by 6.2%. While pCREs important for predicting independent and antagonistic responses tended to resemble binding motifs of transcription factors associated with heat and/or drought stress, important synergistic pCREs resembled binding motifs of transcription factors not known to be associated with stress. These findings demonstrate how in silico approaches can improve our understanding of the complex codes regulating response to combined stress and help us identify prime targets for future characterization.

Azodi, Christina B.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of surface temperature to oceanic forcing via q-Flux Green’s function experiments. Part III: asymmetric response to warming and cooling

Climate response is often assumed to be linear in climate sensitivity studies. However, by examining the surface temperature (TS) response to pairs of oceanic forcings of equal amplitude but opposite sign in a large set of local q-flux perturbation experiments with CAM5 coupled to a slab, we find strong asymmetry in TS responses to the heating and cooling forcings, indicating a strong nonlinearity intrinsic to the climate system examined. Regardless of where the symmetric forcing is placed, the cooling response to the negative forcing always exceeds the warming to the positive forcing, implying an intrinsic inclination towards cooling of our current climate. Thus, the ongoing global warming induced by increasing greenhouse gases may have already been alleviated by the asymmetric component of the response. The common asymmetry in TS response peaks in high latitudes, especially along sea ice edges, with notable seasonal dependence. Decomposition into different radiative feedbacks through a radiative kernel indicates that the asymmetry in the TS response is realized largely through lapse rate and albedo feedbacks. Further process interference experiments disabling the seasonal cycle and/or sea ice reveal that the asymmetry originates ultimately from the presence of the sea ice component and is further amplified by the seasonal cycle. The fact that a pair of opposite tropical q-flux forcings can excite very similar asymmetric response as a pair placed at 55°S strongly suggests the asymmetric response is a manifestation of an internal mode of the climate model system.

Liu, Fukai↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Relative Importance of Antarctic Sea Ice Loss within the Response to Greenhouse Warming

Abstract The response to Antarctic sea ice loss within a coupled modeling framework is examined in comparison to the response to Arctic sea ice loss and within the context of general greenhouse warming. Sea ice loss responses are found to be linear (particularly in response to Antarctic or global sea ice loss) with respect to the degree of imposed perturbation and additive when perturbations are applied in hemispheres separately and concurrently. Globally, and in the tropical Pacific in particular, Antarctic sea ice loss plays a relatively larger role than Arctic sea ice loss in both the atmosphere and the ocean, within the parameters of our experiments. The pattern of response to Antarctic sea ice loss is also found to more closely resemble that of greenhouse warming, again particularly in the tropics. An extension to multiparameter pattern scaling is developed to include a scaling factor for Antarctic change in addition to those for tropical warming and Arctic sea ice loss. The decomposition is applied to the modeled response to Antarctic sea ice loss to break it down into component partial responses that scale with Antarctic, tropical, and Arctic changes. This reveals the aspects of the response that are directly related to Antarctic change, such as an equatorward intensification of tropical precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, and those that are modified via the induced changes in the tropics and Arctic, such as Northern Hemisphere temperature change. With this, we hope to gain a deeper understanding of the role of each of these changes for the development of physical mechanisms of the response.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fault Response of Distributed Energy Resources Considering the Requirements of IEEE 1547-2018

Inverter-based DER responses to faults on the electric power system are different than those of conventional generators and are often poorly understood. Inverter fault responses are largely software-defined, within physics-based constraints. DERs are regulated by standards and grid codes that also constrain their responses. Though fault response of DERs will vary widely, for any DER following any particular standard, a pattern of fault response can be synthesized by observing that particular standard. In this paper, the recently published IEEE 1547-2018 is examined to explore the general fault response of any DER that follows IEEE 1547-2018. Additionally, an IEEE 1547-2018 compliant inverter model is developed and tested in simulation to find the fault response, and that response is compared with the fault response of a commercial off-the-shelf inverter.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structural response reconstruction using a system-equivalent singular vector basis

Here, this paper develops a novel method for reconstructing the full-field response of structural dynamic systems using sparse measurements. The singular value decomposition is applied to a frequency response matrix relating the structural response to physical loads, base motion, or modal loads. The left singular vectors form a non-physical reduced basis that can be used for response reconstruction with far fewer sensors than existing methods. The contributions of the singular vectors to measured response are termed singular-vector loads (SVLs) and are used in a regularized Bayesian framework to generate full-field response estimates and confidence intervals. The reconstruction framework is applicable to the estimation of single data records and power spectral densities from multiple records. Reconstruction is successfully performed in configurations where the number of SVLs to identify is less than, equal to, and greater than the number of sensors used for reconstruction. In a simulation featuring a seismically excited shear structure, SVL reconstruction significantly outperforms modal FRF-based reconstruction and successfully estimates full-field responses with as few as two uniaxial accelerometers. SVL reconstruction is further verified in a simulation featuring an acoustically excited cylinder. Finally, response reconstruction and uncertainty quantification are performed on an experimental structure with three shaker inputs and 27 triaxial accelerometer outputs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Structural and Optical Response of Polymer-Stabilized Blue Phase Liquid Crystal Films to Volatile Organic Compounds

Engineering useful mechanical properties into stimuli-responsive soft materials without compromising their responsiveness is, in many cases, an unresolved challenge. For example, polymer networks formed within blue-phase liquid crystals (BPs) have been shown to form mechanically robust films, but the impact of polymer networks on the response of these soft materials to chemical stimuli has not been explored. In this work, we report on the response of polymer-stabilized BPs (PSBPs) to volatile organic compounds (VOCs, using toluene as a model compound) and compare the response to BPs without polymer stabilization and to polymerized nematic and cholesteric phases. We find that PSBPs generate an optical response to toluene vapor (change in reflection intensity under crossed polars) that is sixfold greater in sensitivity than the polymerized nematic or cholesteric phases and with a limit of detection (140 ± 10 ppm at 25 °C) that is relevant to the measurement of permissible exposure limits for humans. Additionally, when compared to BPs that have not been polymerized, PSBPs respond to a broader range of toluene vapor concentrations (5000 vs <1000 ppm) over a wider temperature interval (25–45 vs 45–53 °C). We place these experimental observations into the context of a simple thermodynamic model to explore how the PSBP response reflects the effect of toluene on competing contributions of double-twisted LC cylinders, disclinations, and polymer network to the free energy that controls the PSBP lattice spacing. Overall, we conclude that the mechanical and thermal stability of PSBPs, when combined with their optical responsiveness to toluene, make this class of self-supporting LCs a promising one as the basis of passive and compact (e.g., wearable) sensors for VOCs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analytical model for quasi-linear flow response to resonant magnetic perturbation in resistive-inertial and viscous-resistive regimes

In this work, a quasi-linear model for plasma flow response to the resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) in a tokamak has been rigorously developed in the resistive-inertial (RI) and viscousresistive (VR) regimes purely from the two-field reduced MHD model. Models for plasma response to RMP are commonly composed of equations for the resonant magnetic field response (i.e. the magnetic island) and the torque balance of plasma flow. However, in previous plasma response models, the magnetic island and the torque balance equations are often derived separately from reduced MHD and full MHD equations, respectively. By contrast, in this work we derive both the magnetic island response and the torque balance equations in a quasi-linear model for plasma flow response entirely from a set of two-field reduced MHD equations. Such a quasi-linear model can recover previous plasma flow response models within certain limits and approximations. Furthermore, the physical origins of quasi-linear forces and moments in the flow response equation are also accurately calculated and clarified self-consistently.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of promoter elements of isoprene‐responsive genes and the ability of isoprene to bind START domain transcription factors

Abstract Isoprene has recently been proposed to be a signaling molecule that can enhance tolerance of both biotic and abiotic stress. Not all plants make isoprene, but all plants tested to date respond to isoprene. We hypothesized that isoprene interacts with existing signaling pathways rather than requiring novel mechanisms for its effect on plants. We analyzed the cis‐regulatory elements (CREs) in promoters of isoprene‐responsive genes and the corresponding transcription factors binding these promoter elements to obtain clues about the transcription factors and other proteins involved in isoprene signaling. Promoter regions of isoprene‐responsive genes were characterized using the Arabidopsis cis‐regulatory element database. CREs bind ARR1, Dof, DPBF, bHLH112, GATA factors, GT‐1, MYB, and WRKY transcription factors, and light‐responsive elements were overrepresented in promoters of isoprene‐responsive genes; CBF‐, HSF‐, WUS‐binding motifs were underrepresented. Transcription factors corresponding to CREs overrepresented in promoters of isoprene‐responsive genes were mainly those important for stress responses: drought‐, salt/osmotic‐, oxidative‐, herbivory/wounding and pathogen‐stress. More than half of the isoprene‐responsive genes contained at least one binding site for TFs of the class IV (homeodomain leucine zipper) HD‐ZIP family, such as GL2, ATML1, PDF2, HDG11, ATHB17. While the HD‐zipper‐loop‐zipper (ZLZ) domain binds to the L1 box of the promoter region, a special domain called the steroidogenic acute regulatory protein‐related lipid transfer, or START domain, can bind ligands such as fatty acids (e.g., linolenic and linoleic acid). We tested whether isoprene might bind in such a START domain. Molecular simulations and modeling to test interactions between isoprene and a class IV HD‐ZIP family START‐domain‐containing protein were carried out. Without membrane penetration by the HDG11 START domain, isoprene within the lipid bilayer was inaccessible to this domain, preventing protein interactions with membrane bound isoprene. The cross‐talk between isoprene‐mediated signaling and other growth regulator and stress signaling pathways, in terms of common CREs and transcription factors could enhance the stability of the isoprene emission trait when it evolves in a plant but so far it has not been possible to say what how isoprene is sensed to initiate signaling responses.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

River Geomorphology Affects Biogeochemical Responses to Hydrologic Events in a Large River Ecosystem

Shifts in the frequency and intensity of high discharge events due to climate change may have important consequences for the hydrology and biogeochemistry of rivers. However, our understanding of event-scale biogeochemical dynamics in large rivers lags that of small streams. To fill this gap, we used high-frequency sensor data collected during four consecutive summers from a main channel and backwater site of the Upper Mississippi River. We identified high discharge events and calculated event concentration-discharge responses for both physical-chemical (nitrate, turbidity, and fluorescent dissolved organic matter) and biological (chlorophyll-a and cyanobacteria) constituents using metrics of hysteresis and slope. We found a range of responses across events, particularly for nitrate. Although fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) and turbidity exhibited more consistent responses across events, contrasting hysteresis metrics indicated that FDOM was flushed to the river from more distant sources than turbidity. Biological responses (chlorophyll a and cyanobacteria) differed more between sites than physical and chemical constituents. Lastly, we found that the event characteristics best explaining concentration responses differed between sites, with event magnitude more frequently related to responses in the main channel, and antecedent wetness conditions associated with response variation in the backwater. Furthermore, our results indicate that event responses in large rivers are distinct across the diverse habitats and biogeochemical components of a large floodplain river, which has implications for local and downstream ecosystems as the climate shifts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterization of DER Momentary Cessation and Rate-of-Change-of-Frequency Response

Momentary cessation (MC) and response to rate-of-change-of-frequency (ROCOF) are inverter responses that can have serious impact on the stability of the grid during abnormal conditions. Though IEEE Std 1547-2018 provides fairly well defined expected responses from inverter-based DERs during abnormal grid conditions, a significant portion of currently installed DERs in the distribution network do not have a well defined response to abnormal grid conditions. Any analysis of the grid involving inverter MC and ROCOF response must consider the specific characteristics of these responses for the installed DERs to have better confidence in the analysis results, especially for grids with high levels of DERs. However, there is lack of information on MC and ROCOF response for the inverters already installed in the field. In this paper, we examine a large data set of installed inverters to map the dominant population of installed inverters. This information is then used to characterize the most dominant MC and ROCOF responses of installed inverters using experimental data.

DER↗

DOE OSTI2021

Legacy effects of drought on tree growth responses to hurricanes

Natural perturbations, including hurricanes and severe droughts, are becoming more frequent and intense in the tropics, yet our understanding of forest responses to these events is still limited. While the relationships between extreme climatic events and tree mortality are frequently studied, responses of trees that survived such perturbations have been rarely reported. Perturbations and their effects can be quite variable, and trees can respond both positively and negatively to them, depending on their sensitivity and opportunistic behavior. Understanding the potential variation in responses both within and among species is important for building predictions of forest responses. We studied tree growth responses (i.e., changes relative to standard conditions) to hurricanes and drought events in Puerto Rico across six common and broadly distributed species. We examined whether there is a congruence in responses to these contrasting extreme climatic events. We show that trees are particularly susceptible to droughts but display a wide range of responses to hurricanes. Despite the high stochasticity in the impacts of hurricanes, trees that showed reduced growth during previous droughts tend to show reduced growth during the hurricanes as well. Our results demonstrate that trees subjected to different and successive major climatic stresses have consistent declines in their performance. Projected increases in the severity of droughts and tropical storms could have an accumulated, and possibly compound, impact on tree growth. Long-term demographic studies are necessary to understand legacy effects of species responses to extreme climatic perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effective sensor location for detection of change in structural dynamic response

This paper investigates the sensitivity of structural system response to the sensor location by investigating consequences of small changes in the location to the structural system response. The paper discusses how maximum observability (based on mode shape and the participation of that mode in the input provided) drives optimal location. The structural responses were investigated in terms of the g-rms response for various low-frequency inputs (pure sinusoids and real-life inputs such as an earthquake and trains). Results were then analyzed in the context of Modal Contributions Factors (MCF) and changes to the Force-to-response Transfer Functions (TRFs). A modal-matching process is first presented using a Matlab TM -based Finite Element Method (FEM) model of a cantilever beam and instrumentation to determine the location of a small mass based on three different criteria. Subsequently, the structural response is investigated using experiments and the FEM model. The accelerometer of small mass (at 1/3 height) was moved up or down to obtain changes in the structural response (TRF) to various realistic low-frequency inputs. Modal Contribution Factor (MCF) and derivative (slope) of the associated mode-shapes were correlated to the observed changes in TRFs. Results show how optimal sensor locations for detecting change in structural response can be based on the MCFs and the associated mode-shapes.

Woodall, J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Variation in morpho-physiological and metabolic responses to low nitrogen stress across the sorghum association panel

Abstract Background Access to biologically available nitrogen is a key constraint on plant growth in both natural and agricultural settings. Variation in tolerance to nitrogen deficit stress and productivity in nitrogen limited conditions exists both within and between plant species. However, our understanding of changes in different phenotypes under long term low nitrogen stress and their impact on important agronomic traits, such as yield, is still limited. Results Here we quantified variation in the metabolic, physiological, and morphological responses of a sorghum association panel assembled to represent global genetic diversity to long term, nitrogen deficit stress and the relationship of these responses to grain yield under both conditions. Grain yield exhibits substantial genotype by environment interaction while many other morphological and physiological traits exhibited consistent responses to nitrogen stress across the population. Large scale nontargeted metabolic profiling for a subset of lines in both conditions identified a range of metabolic responses to long term nitrogen deficit stress. Several metabolites were associated with yield under high and low nitrogen conditions. Conclusion Our results highlight that grain yield in sorghum, unlike many morpho-physiological traits, exhibits substantial variability of genotype specific responses to long term low severity nitrogen deficit stress. Metabolic response to long term nitrogen stress shown higher proportion of variability explained by genotype specific responses than did morpho-pysiological traits and several metabolites were correlated with yield. This suggest, that it might be possible to build predictive models using metabolite abundance to estimate which sorghum genotypes will exhibit greater or lesser decreases in yield in response to nitrogen deficit, however further research needs to be done to evaluate such model.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Genomic dissection of anthracnose resistance response in sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench]

Sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] is the fifth most important grain crop behind maize, wheat, rice, and barley. Today, it is of interest as a source of fermentable sugars for the production of renewable fuels and chemicals, and as a source of biomass for co-firing. The productivity and profitability of sorghum are limited by several biotic constraints, most notably anthracnose caused by the fungal pathogen Colletotrichum sublineolum. The most cost-effective and environmentally benign strategy to control anthracnose is through the incorporation of resistance genes. Over the last three years, our research efforts have been directed to identify new sources of resistance in temperate adapted and tropical germplasm, and to delimited genomic regions associated with the observe anthracnose resistant response. Three biparental mapping populations derived from the resistant lines SC112-14, QL3 and IS18760 were evaluated for anthracnose resistance response in Texas, Georgia, Florida and Puerto Rico. In parallel, three high density recombination maps were constructed and used to identify resistant loci. Anthracnose resistant response in line SC112-14 is controlled by a major locus on chromosome 5. Segregation analysis of 1,500 progenies delimited the resistance locus on chromosome 5 to a 23-kb region harboring three candidate genes, including Sobic.005G17230 identified by GWAS of the sorghum association panel (SAP). The latter gene belongs to a family of genes encoding F-box proteins indicating that this resistance response involved in signaling cascades and transcriptional reprograming, rather than recognition of pathotype-associated molecular patterns. In contrast, anthracnose resistant response in lines QL3 and IS18760 is controlled by multiple small-effect genes. Greenhouse evaluation of a representative subset of the three mapping populations against nine pathotypes found that lines susceptible in the field could be resistant to a single pathotype in the greenhouse. Thus, the activation of a resistance response system by a single pathotype could not provide a broader resistance response against multiple pathotypes. The screening of 1,801 sweet sorghum accessions from the National Plant Germplasm System identified 654 accessions with Brix value larger than 10, which in turn was used to select a subset of 233 accessions for evaluation of anthracnose resistant response. Even though most of the accessions were not completely infected by anthracnose, 28 accessions were completely resistant against pathotypes from Texas, Georgia, Florida and Puerto Rico. Genotyping-by-sequencing analysis of this subset identified 157,843 single nucleotide polymorphisms. Population structure analysis of the subset based on a subset of 2,345 unlinked SNPs found that the genetic diversity could be divided into four populations. The genetic relatedness among accessions within populations suggests most of the resistant germplasm may contain few different resistance sources. These resistance sources present in sweet sorghum germplasm could expedite the development of new resistant sweet sorghum cultivars and hybrids by avoiding time-consuming introgression breeding approaches with non-sweet sorghums serving as donor of the resistance alleles.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Editorial: Transcriptional and epigenetic landscapes of abiotic stress response in plants

In nature, plants constantly face various biotic and abiotic stresses that impact their growth, development, and productivity. Among these, abiotic stresses often have a more severe impact than biotic stresses. For instance, drought has been reported to cause greater yield losses than the combined impact of all plant pathogens (Gupta et al., 2020). Abiotic stresses are the immediate outcome of climate change, and the magnitude of these stresses has gradually increased every year with the rise in global temperatures. Thus, it has become imperative to study the impact of these stresses on plants and how plants respond to them at different levels to show resilient traits. This includes analysing the plants at morpho-physiological, biochemical, and molecular levels. Researchers often compare stressed plants to control (non-stressed) plants or evaluate contrasting genotypes, such as tolerant and sensitive lines, to elucidate the mechanisms underlying stress responses. While these studies have provided some insights, a comprehensive understanding of the intricate mechanisms governing plant responses to abiotic stress remains largely unknown. Recent advances in next-generation tools and technologies have enabled researchers to dissect the molecular basis of plant stress responses at genomic, transcriptomic, proteomic, metabolomic, epigenetic and epigenomic levels. Among these, knowledge of the transcriptional/epigenomic landscape of the trait-associated variations is limited. Given the importance of transcriptional changes and histone modifications in abiotic stress responses, this Research Topic was edited to collage the knowledge available on transcriptional and epigenetic landscapes of abiotic stress response in plants. The Research Topic features eight original research articles and one review, covering various aspects of transcriptome and epigenetic reprogramming in plants during abiotic stresses. Four of the research articles employ transcriptomics integrated with other omics approaches to explore transcriptome reprogramming, candidate gene identification, and the role of long non-coding RNA during different stresses. Two articles focus on the functional characterization of specific candidate genes involved in stress response, while another provides a genome-wide analysis of a stress-responsive gene family. Additionally, one study investigates genome-wide histone modifications, specifically H3K4me3 and H3K27me3, in response to abiotic stresses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparative Analysis of In Vitro Responses and Regeneration between Diverse Bioenergy Sorghum Genotypes

Sorghum has been considered a recalcitrant plant in vitro and suffers from a lack of regeneration protocols that function broadly and efficiently across a range of genotypes. This study was initiated to identify differential genotype-in vitro protocol responses across a range of bioenergy sorghum parental lines and the common grain sorghum genotype Tx430 in order to characterize response profiles for use in future genetic studies. Two different in vitro protocols, LG and WU, were used for comparisons. Distinct genotype-protocol responses were observed, and the WU protocol performed significantly better for plantlet regeneration. Most bioenergy genotypes performed as well, if not better than Tx430, with Rio and PI329311 as the top regenerating lines. Genotypes displayed protocol-dependent, differential phenolic exudation responses, as indicated by medium browning. During the callus induction phase, genotypes prone to medium browning exhibited a response on WU medium which was either equal or greater than on LG medium. Genotype- and protocol-dependent albino plantlet regeneration was also noted, with three of the bioenergy genotypes showing albino plantlet regeneration. Grassl, Rio and Pink Kafir were susceptible to albino plantlet regeneration, with the response strongly associated with the WU protocol. These bioenergy parental genotypes, and their differential responses under two in vitro protocols, provide tools to further explore and assess the role of genetic loci, candidate genes, and allelic variants in the regulation of in vitro responsiveness in sorghum.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Climate response to off-equatorial stratospheric sulfur injections in three Earth system models – Part 1: Experimental protocols and surface changes

There is now substantial literature on climate model studies of equatorial or tropical stratospheric SO 2 injections that aim to counteract the surface warming produced by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. Here we present the results from the first systematic intercomparison of climate responses in three Earth system models wherein the injection of SO 2 occurs at different latitudes in the lower stratosphere: CESM2-WACCM6, UKESM1.0 and GISS-E2.1-G. The first two use a modal aerosol microphysics scheme, while two versions of GISS-E2.1-G use a bulk aerosol (One-Moment Aerosol, OMA) and a two-moment (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state, MATRIX) microphysics approach, respectively. Our aim in this work is to determine commonalities and differences between the climate model responses in terms of the distribution of the optically reflective sulfate aerosols produced from the oxidation of SO 2 and in terms of the surface response to the resulting reduction in solar radiation. A focus on understanding the contribution of characteristics of models transport alongside their microphysical and chemical schemes, and on evaluating the resulting stratospheric responses in different models, is given in the companion paper (Bednarz et al., 2023). The goal of this exercise is not to evaluate these single-point injection simulations as stand-alone proposed strategies to counteract global warming; instead we determine sources and areas of agreement and uncertainty in the simulated responses and, ultimately, the possibility of designing a comprehensive intervention strategy capable of managing multiple simultaneous climate goals through the combination of different injection locations. We find large disagreements between GISS-E2.1-G and the CESM2-WACCM6 and UKESM1.0 models regarding the magnitude of cooling per unit of aerosol optical depth (AOD) produced, which varies from 4.7 K per unit of AOD in CESM2-WACCM6 to 16.7 K in the GISS-E2.1-G version with two-moment aerosol microphysics. By normalizing the results with the global mean response in each of the models and thus assuming that the amount of SO 2 injected is a free parameter that can be managed independently, we highlight some commonalities in the overall distributions of the aerosols, in the inter-hemispheric surface temperature response and in shifts to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, as well as some areas of disagreement, such as the extent of the aerosol confinement in the equatorial region and the efficiency of the transport to polar latitudes. In conclusion, we demonstrate that it is possible to use these simulations to produce more comprehensive injection strategies in multiple climate models. However, large differences in the injection magnitudes can be expected, potentially increasing inter-model spreads in some stratospheric quantities (such as aerosol distribution) while reducing the spread in the surface response in terms of temperature and precipitation; furthermore, the selection of the injection locations may be dependent on the models' specific stratospheric transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

Abstract. The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4 mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7 mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 ∘C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles. We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗