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At least 127 records · Page 7

15-minute Parker River gap-filled tide height and salinity data, PIE LTER, Plum Island Sound, MA (2014–2023), for ELM PFLOTRAN modeling

This dataset contains 15-minute tide height and salinity data from the Typha site along the Parker River, part of the Plum Island Ecosystems Long Term Ecological Research (PIE LTER) site in Plum Island Sound, Massachusetts (MA) 2014-2023. Tide height (in NAVD88) was compiled from measurements conducted at the mouth of Plum Island Sound and corrected for time lags. Gap-filling of missing periods were done by fitting tidal constituents to the time series. Salinity was measured (and is stored on ESS DIVE ) in 2022 and 2023 using HOBO U24-002 conductivity loggers. River discharge is the most important control on tidal river water salinity at the location (Vallino & Hopkinson, 1998). An artificial neural network was trained to predict river water salinity at the location using Parker River discharge (USGS station 01101000, Parker River at Byfield, MA) and gap-filled salinity observations from a long-term monitoring station ca. 3km downstream from the Typha site (LTER station ‘Middle Road’) as input variables to create continuous time series information. The data set was used in the spin up and simulations of a land surface model coupled to a biogeochemical reaction network (ELM PFLOTRAN) assessing impacts of hydrology and salinity input on methane fluxes in 2022 and 2023 (Sulman et al., 2024). Metadata files ELMPFLOTRAN_tide_salinity_dd.csv and ELMPFLOTRAN_tide_salinity_flmd.csv provide details on site location, data variables, and QA/QC methods .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Riverine organic matter functional diversity increases with catchment size

A large amount of dissolved organic matter (DOM) is transported to the ocean from terrestrial inputs each year (~0.95 Pg C per year) and undergoes a series of abiotic and biotic reactions, causing a significant release of CO 2 . Combined, these reactions result in variable DOM characteristics (e.g., nominal oxidation state of carbon, double-bond equivalents, chemodiversity) which have demonstrated impacts on biogeochemistry and ecosystem function. Despite this importance, however, comparatively few studies focus on the drivers for DOM chemodiversity along a riverine continuum. Here, we characterized DOM within samples collected from a stream network in the Yakima River Basin using ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry (i.e., FTICR-MS). To link DOM chemistry to potential function, we identified putative biochemical transformations within each sample. We also used various molecular characteristics (e.g., thermodynamic favorability, degradability) to calculate a series of functional diversity metrics. We observed that the diversity of biochemical transformations increased with increasing upstream catchment area and landcover. This increase was also connected to expanding functional diversity of the molecular formula. This pattern suggests that as molecular formulas become more diverse in thermodynamics or degradability, there is increased opportunity for biochemical transformations, potentially creating a self-reinforcing cycle where transformations in turn increase diversity and diversity increase transformations. We also observed that these patterns are, in part, connected to landcover whereby the occurrence of many landcover types (e.g., agriculture, urban, forest, shrub) could expand DOM functional diversity. For example, we observed that a novel functional diversity metric measuring similarity to common freshwater molecular formulas (i.e., carboxyl-rich alicyclic molecules) was significantly related to urban coverage. These results show that DOM diversity does not decrease along stream networks, as predicted by a common conceptual model known as the River Continuum Concept, but rather are influenced by the thermodynamic and degradation potential of molecular formula within the DOM, as well as landcover patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transient cycling of nitrogen, organic carbon and oxygen within the free-flowing Columbia River corridor: Linking exposure time dependent biogeochemical reactions to river stage fluctuations (Final project report)

The objective of this project was to develop next-generation techniques for representing the transformations of complex reaction networks like those impacting transient river-corridors, then apply them to develop upscaling tools. The project contributed significantly to the development of Lagrangian “mass transfer particle tracking” (MTPT) tools that are the first numerical framework that explicitly separates mixing and spreading processes; a crucial distinction for accurate representations of reaction rates across scales. The MTPT approach uses an operator splitting scheme where physical transport processes are simulated using classical random walk methods and each particle is treated as a “container” that carries with it any number of chemical species. Mixing between particles is simulated using a colocation-probability based mass transfer kernel and reactions are evaluated on each particle after mixing. The method is stable, accurate, and also allows the explicit modeling of residence time distributions of the individual containers of mass. The MTPT scheme allowed us to explore several research questions related to reactive transport in river corridors and complex reaction networks. We found that it is possible to quantify the exposure time distributions (ETDs) of reactants and that this does suggest some pathways to upscaling. However, comparable approximations can be obtained using simplified (reduced dimensionality) MTPT simulations in less time with similar uncertainty, so development of extensive ETD-based methods was not productive. The major findings are that i) the MTPT schemes are robust and highly accurate across a range of arbitrarily complex reactions, ii) the methods can be efficiently parallelized and the parallel performance characteristics of MTPT are predictable, and iii) the MTPT tools allow simultaneous tracking of residence time. The development of these research tools into efficient software packages continues. The methods are already available to the community because open-source, working examples have been included with all publications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physics–Informed Neural Networks of the Saint–Venant Equations for Downscaling a Large–Scale River Model

Large-scale river models are being refined over coastal regions to improve the scientific understanding of coastal processes, hazards and responses to climate change. However, coarse mesh resolutions and approximations in physical representations of tidal rivers limit the performance of such models at resolving the complex flow dynamics near the river-ocean interface, resulting in inaccurate simulations of flood inundation. In this research, we propose a machine learning (ML) framework based on the state-of-the-art physics-informed neural network (PINN) to simulate the downscaled flow at the subgrid scale. First, we demonstrate that PINN is able to assimilate observations of various types and solve the one-dimensional (1-D) Saint-Venant equations (SVE) directly. We perform the flow simulations over a floodplain and along an open channel in several synthetic case studies. The PINN performance is evaluated against analytical solutions and numerical models. Our results indicate that the PINN solutions of water depth have satisfactory accuracy with limited observations assimilated. In the case of flood wave propagation induced by storm surge and tide, a new neural network architecture is proposed based on Fourier feature embeddings that seamlessly encodes the periodic tidal boundary condition in the PINN's formulation. Furthermore, we show that the PINN-based downscaling can produce more reasonable subgrid solutions of the along-channel water depth by assimilating observational data. The PINN solution outperforms the simple linear interpolation in resolving the topography and dynamic flow regimes at the subgrid scale. This study provides a promising path towards improving emulation capabilities in large-scale models to characterize fine-scale coastal processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GROWdb US River Systems - Samples

GROW Overview We developed the Genome Resolved Open Watersheds database (GROWdb), which aims to increase genomic sampling and understanding of global river microbiomes. An emphasis of GROWdb is to create a publicly available and ever-expanding microbial genome database that is focused on rivers while being interoperable with databases from other ecosystems. GROWdb is based on a network-of-networks approach to move beyond a small collection of well-studied rivers, towards a spatially distributed, global network of systematic observations. GROWdb represents the first microbial, river-focused resource parsed at various scales from genes to MAGs to community level including expression and potential based measurements that will be of interest to microbiologists, ecologists, geochemists, hydrologists, and modelers. Dataset Acknowledgement GROWdb contains data from various research campaigns, please acknowledge the following data generators, as appropriate: WHONDRS derived genomes or samples - include this statement in your acknowledgements: “This study used data from the Worldwide Hydrobiogeochemistry Observation Network for Dynamic River Systems (WHONDRS) under the River Corridor Science Focus Area (SFA) at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) that was generated at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Joint Genome Institute User Facility. PNNL is operated by Battelle Memorial Institute for the U.S. DOE under Contract No. DE-AC05-76RL01830. The SFA is supported by the U.S. DOE, Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), Environmental System Science (ESS) Program.” Total Samples loaded onto this Narrative: 178 Note: Not all GROW samples may be loaded into KBase Data Availability The data underlying GROWdb are accessible across various platforms to ensure all levels of data structure are widely available. First, all reads and MAGs are publicly hosted on National Center for Biotechnology (NCBI) under Bioproject PRJNA946291. Second, all data related data presented here including MAG annotations, extended data tables, phylogenetic tree files, antibiotic resistance gene database files, and MAG abundance tables are available in Zenodo (link). Beyond the flat database files listed above, our aim for GROWdb was to maximize data use by making the data available in searchable and interactive platforms including the National Microbiome Data Collaborative (NMDC) data portal, the Department of Energy’s Systems Biology Knowledgebase (KBase), and a GROW specific user interface released here, GROWdb Explorer. Each platform provides different ways to interact with GROWdb: NMDC GROWdb formed a pilot project for the NMDC. Specifically, individual GROWdb datasets (metagenomes, metatranscriptomes, etc) are easily accessible and searchable through the NMDC data portal, where they are systematically connected to each other and to a rich suite of sample information and standard analysis results, following Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) data practices. KBase GROWdb is publicly available within KBase, including samples (this Narrative), MAGs, and corresponding genome scale metabolic models. Access within KBase allows for immediate access and reuse of data, including comparison to private data using KBase’s 500+ analysis tools. Other linked narratives in KBase: GROW Metagenome Assembled Genomes (MAGs) GROW Metabolic Models GROWdb Explorer GROWdb data is also explorable through a graphical user interface built through the Colorado State University Geospatial Centroid (https://geocentroid.shinyapps.io/GROWdatabase/), allowing users to search and graph microbial and spatial data simultaneously. In summary, this microbial genome resource represents the first publicly available genome collection from rivers and offers data that can be leveraged across microbiome studies. GROWdb is an expanding repository to incorporate and unify global river multi-omic data for the future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Global Soil Moisture from the Aquarius/SAC-D Satellite: Description and Initial Assessment

Aquarius satellite observations over land offer a new resource for measuring soil moisture from space. Although Aquarius was designed for ocean salinity mapping, our objective in this investigation is to exploit the large amount of land observations that Aquarius acquires and extend the mission scope to include the retrieval of surface soil moisture. The soil moisture retrieval algorithm development focused on using only the radiometer data because of the extensive heritage of passive microwave retrieval of soil moisture. The single channel algorithm (SCA) was implemented using the Aquarius observations to estimate surface soil moisture. Aquarius radiometer observations from three beams (after bias/gain modification) along with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction model forecast surface temperatures were then used to retrieve soil moisture. Ancillary data inputs required for using the SCA are vegetation water content, land surface temperature, and several soil and vegetation parameters based on land cover classes. The resulting global spatial patterns of soil moisture were consistent with the precipitation climatology and with soil moisture from other satellite missions (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System and Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity). Initial assessments were performed using in situ observations from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Little Washita and Little River watershed soil moisture networks. Results showed good performance by the algorithm for these land surface conditions for the period of August 2011-June 2013 (rmse = 0.031 m(exp 3)/m(exp 3), Bias = −0.007 m(exp 3)/m(exp 3), and R = 0.855). This radiometer-only soil moisture product will serve as a baseline for continuing research on both active and combined passive-active soil moisture algorithms. The products are routinely available through the National Aeronautics and Space Administration data archive at the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Soil MOisture↗

Bayesian-Motivated Probabilistic Model of Hurricane-Induced Multimechanism Flood Hazards

Multimechanism floods (MMFs) are caused by the simultaneous occurrence of more than one flood mechanism such as storm surge, precipitation, tides, and waves. MMFs can lead to more severe or differing impacts than single-mechanism floods. As a result, comprehensive risk assessments require the ability to assess the multivariate probabilistic behaviors of hazards from MMFs. Here this study introduces a novel Bayesian-motivated approach for the probabilistic assessment of hurricane-induced hazards from the combination of the surge, precipitation, tides, and river antecedent flow. A Bayesian network (BN) is developed to capture the physical (conditional) relationship between variables and facilitate the generation of a hazard curve for river discharge that captures the contributions from multiple flood drivers. A case study located along the Delaware River is used to illustrate the proposed approach. Five computationally efficient representative predictive models are developed to estimate the conditional distributions required for the BN as a means of demonstrating the overall framework. The predictive models used in this study act as placeholders and can be replaced with more sophisticated and high-fidelity models depending on the desired accuracy level. While the predictive models are intended to be representative and illustrative, the model performance is evaluated using three historical storms that affected the area. Overall, the proposed framework is shown to be transparent, effective, and adaptable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AmeriFlux US-xLE NEON Lenoir Landing (LENO)

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xLE NEON Lenoir Landing (LENO). Site Description - This terrestrial field site is located in a hardwood bottomland with seasonal flooding each spring located in southwest Alabama. The meteorological/flux tower and tower sampling plots are located at Lenoir Landing and the distributed plots are located approximately 5 km south of the tower at Choctaw National Wildlife Refuge. The ecosystem at LENO is dominated by closed-canopy pine-oak mixed forest with a developed understory, and also includes a small fraction of meadows, wetlands, and smaller water bodies. Dominant plant species include American sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua), American hornbeam (Carpinus caroliniana), and loblolly pine (Pinus taeda). Choctaw National Wildlife Refuge also provides a protected wintering area for waterfowl and wood duck brood habitat. This site is colocated with the Lower Tombigbee river aquatic site.

Network), NEON (National Ecological Observatory↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-xLE NEON Lenoir Landing (LENO)

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xLE NEON Lenoir Landing (LENO). This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-xLE NEON Lenoir Landing (LENO) produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - This terrestrial field site is located in a hardwood bottomland with seasonal flooding each spring located in southwest Alabama. The meteorological/flux tower and tower sampling plots are located at Lenoir Landing and the distributed plots are located approximately 5 km south of the tower at Choctaw National Wildlife Refuge. The ecosystem at LENO is dominated by closed-canopy pine-oak mixed forest with a developed understory, and also includes a small fraction of meadows, wetlands, and smaller water bodies. Dominant plant species include American sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua), American hornbeam (Carpinus caroliniana), and loblolly pine (Pinus taeda). Choctaw National Wildlife Refuge also provides a protected wintering area for waterfowl and wood duck brood habitat. This site is colocated with the Lower Tombigbee river aquatic site.

Network), NEON (National Ecological Observatory [N↗

Antarctic Ice Shelf Potentially Stabilized by Export of Meltwater in Surface River

Meltwater stored in ponds and crevasses can weaken and fracture ice shelves, triggering their rapid disintegration. This ice-shelf collapse results in an increased flux of ice from adjacent glaciers and ice streams, thereby raising sea level globally. However, surface rivers forming on ice shelves could potentially export stored meltwater and prevent its destructive effects. Here we present evidence for persistent active drainage networks-interconnected streams, ponds and rivers-on the Nansen Ice Shelf in Antarctica that export a large fraction of the ice shelf's meltwater into the ocean. We find that active drainage has exported water off the ice surface through waterfalls and dolines for more than a century. The surface river terminates in a 130-metre-wide waterfall that can export the entire annual surface melt over the course of seven days. During warmer melt seasons, these drainage networks adapt to changing environmental conditions by remaining active for longer and exporting more water. Similar networks are present on the ice shelf in front of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, but other systems, such as on the Larsen C and Amery Ice Shelves, retain surface water at present. The underlying reasons for export versus retention remain unclear. Nonetheless our results suggest that, in a future warming climate, surface rivers could export melt off the large ice shelves surrounding Antarctica-contrary to present Antarctic ice-sheet models, which assume that meltwater is stored on the ice surface where it triggers ice-shelf disintegration.

Bell, Robin E.↗

Policy Innovation and Governance for Irrigation Sustainability in the Arid, Saline San Joaquin River Basin

This paper provides a chronology and overview of events and policy initiatives aimed at addressing irrigation sustainability issues in the San Joaquin River Basin (SJRB) of California. Although the SJRB was selected in this case study, many of the same resource management issues are being played out in arid, agricultural regions around the world. The first part of this paper provides an introduction to some of the early issues impacting the expansion of irrigated agriculture primarily on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley and the policy and capital investments that were used to address salinity impairments to the use of the San Joaquin River (SJR) as an irrigation water supply. Irrigated agriculture requires large quantities of water if it is to be sustained, as well as supply water of adequate quality for the crop being grown. The second part of the paper addresses these supply issues and a period of excessive groundwater pumping that resulted in widespread land subsidence. A joint federal and state policy response that resulted in the facilities to import Delta water provided a remedy that lasted almost 50 years until the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act of 2014 was passed in the legislature to address a recurrence of the same issue. The paper describes the current state of basin-scale simulation modeling that many areas, including California, are using to craft a future sustainable groundwater resource management policy. The third section of the paper deals with unique water quality issues that arose in connection with the selenium crisis at Kesterson Reservoir and the significant threats to irrigation sustainability on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley that followed. The eventual policy response to this crisis was incremental, spanning two decades of University of California-led research programs focused on finding permanent solutions to the salt and selenium contamination problems constraining irrigated agriculture, primarily on the west side. Arid-zone agricultural drainage-induced water quality problems are becoming more ubiquitous worldwide. One policy approach that found traction in California is an innovative variant on the traditional Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) approach to salinity regulation, which has features in common with a scheme in Australia’s Hunter River Basin. The paper describes the real-time salinity management (RTSM) concept, which is geared to improving coordination of west side agricultural and wetland exports of salt load with east side tributary reservoir release flows to improve compliance with river salinity objectives. RTSM is a concept that requires access to continuous flow and electrical conductivity data from sensor networks located along the San Joaquin River and its major tributaries and a simulation model-based decision support designed to make salt load assimilative capacity forecasts. Web-based information dissemination and data sharing innovations are described with an emphasis on experience with stakeholder engagement and participation. The last decade has seen wide-scale, global deployment of similar technologies for enhancing irrigation agriculture productivity and protecting environmental resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The evolution of dam induced river fragmentation in the United States

It is established that dams decrease river connectivity; however, previous global scale studies of river fragmentation focused on a small subset of the largest dams. In the United States, mid-sized dams, which are too small for global databases, account for 96% of major anthropogenic structures and 48% of reservoir storage. We conduct a national evaluation of the evolution of anthropogenic river bifurcation over time that includes more than 50,000 nationally inventoried dams. Mid-sized dams account for 73% of anthropogenically created stream fragments nationally. They also contribute disproportionately to short fragments (less than 10 km), which is particularly troubling for aquatic habitats. Here we show that dam construction has essentially reversed natural fragmentation patterns in the United States. Prior to human development, smaller river fragments and less connected networks occurred in arid basins while today we show that humid basins are the most fragmented due to human structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Detecting Rain–Snow-Transition Elevations in Mountain Basins Using Wireless Sensor Networks

Here, to provide complementary information on the hydrologically important rain–snow-transition elevation in mountain basins, this study provides two estimation methods using ground measurements from basin-scale wireless sensor networks: one based on wet-bulb temperature T wet and the other based on snow-depth measurements of accumulation and ablation. With data from 17 spatially distributed clusters (178 nodes) from two networks, in the American and Feather River basins of California’s Sierra Nevada, we analyzed transition elevation during 76 storm events in 2014–18. A T wet threshold of 0.5°C best matched the transition elevation defined by snow depth. Transition elevations using T wet in upper elevations of the basins generally agreed with atmospheric snow level from radars located at lower elevations, while radar snow level was ~100 m higher due to snow-level lowering on windward mountainsides during orographic lifting. Diurnal patterns of the difference between transition elevation and radar snow level were observed in the American basin, related to diurnal ground-temperature variations. However, these patterns were not found in the Feather basin due to complex terrain and higher uncertainties in transition-elevation estimates. The American basin tends to exhibit 100-m-higher transition elevations than does the Feather basin, consistent with the Feather basin being about 1° latitude farther north. Transition elevation averaged 155 m higher in intense atmospheric river events than in other events; meanwhile, snow-level lowering was enhanced with a 90-m-larger difference between radar snow level and transition elevation. On-the-ground continuous observations from distributed sensor networks can complement radar data and provide important ground truth and spatially resolved information on transition elevations in mountain basins.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Variational encoder geostatistical analysis (VEGAS) with an application to large scale riverine bathymetry

Estimation of riverbed profiles, also known as bathymetry, plays a vital role in many applications, such as safe and efficient inland navigation, prediction of bank erosion, land subsidence, and flood risk management. The high cost and complex logistics of direct bathymetry surveys, i.e, depth imaging, have encouraged the use of indirect measurements such as surface flow velocities. However, estimating high-resolution bathymetry from indirect measurements is an inverse problem that can be computationally challenging. Here, we propose a reduced-order model (ROM) based approach that utilizes a variational autoencoder (VAE), a type of deep neural network with a narrow layer in the middle, to compress bathymetry and flow velocity information and accelerate bathymetry inverse problems from flow velocity measurements. In our application, the shallow-water equations (SWE) with appropriate boundary conditions (BCs), e.g., the discharge and/or the free surface elevation, constitute the forward problem, to predict flow velocity. Then, ROMs of the SWEs are constructed on a nonlinear manifold of low dimensionality through a variational encoder and the bathymetry inversion problem is derived on the low-dimensional latent space in a Hierarchical Bayesian setting. Further, the reformulation allows variational inference with a small number (e.g., $\mathscr{O}$ (100) of ROM runs and efficient uncertainty quantification. We have tested our inversion approach on a one-mile reach of the Savannah River, GA, USA. Once the neural network is trained (offline stage), the proposed technique can perform the inversion operation orders of magnitude faster than traditional inversion methods that are commonly based on linear projections, such as principal component analysis (PCA), or the principal component geostatistical approach (PCGA). Furthermore, tests show that the algorithm can estimate the bathymetry with good accuracy even with sparse flow velocity measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analyzing Infrastructure Interdependencies Using Network-Of-Networks Modeling

Infrastructure networks play a crucial role in our day-to-day lives, and modeling these infrastructure networks can help decisionmakers prepare for and respond to disruptions such as natural disasters or cyberattacks. Because these infrastructure networks depend on each other, it is not sufficient to model a single network in isolation. We build on previous single-network-modeling techniques to develop a methodology for modeling infrastructure interdependencies as a Network-of-Networks. Using distributionlevel data from a real U.S. city on the power grid, road geometry, and hospital locations, we show how to apply this methodology to modeling three of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's Critical Infrastructure Sectors: Healthcare, Transportation, and Energy. We also analyze three primary metrics before and after a simulated disaster: 1) impact on hospital access; 2) road network impact with the change in betweenness centrality; 3) electric customer outage. We simulate three different disruptions: 1) road flooding from nearby rivers; 2) a malicious actor targeting the road networks; 3) a malicious actor targeting the electric grid. Finally, we discuss how our methodology can be applied to additional infrastructure networks and types of disruption, and how Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques may be incorporated into this methodology for further research.

Scherrer, Evan [Drake University, Iowa]↗

NEON AOP foliar trait maps, maps of model uncertainty estimates, and conifer map, East River, CO 2018

This data package contains mapped trait estimates and their uncertainties, and conifer map, for the National Ecological Observatory Network's Airborne Observation Platform survey data acquired over the Upper East River, Colorado in 2018. For full details, please see associated reference. in brief, trait models were developed independently for needle and non-needle leaf species using partial least squares regression (PLSR) using ground data from additional datasets: doi:10.15485/1618130, doi:10.15485/1618132, and doi:10.15485/1631278, merged with extracted spectral data from doi:10.15485/1618131. We separated vegetated pixels into needle and non-needle classes in order to generate a classification map based on the spectral differences between these leaf types (conifer.tif). We trained a deep learning model with custom architecture, detailed in Chadwick et al. In Press. The model performed with 0.998 true positive rate and 0.982 true negative rate, with ‘positives’ being non-needle identification. We then utilized PLSR to generate models of foliar traits for each leaf type. So that we could also map uncertainty in these predictions, we generated ten different models for needle and non-needle leaf species using different testing holdout sets of discrete sites. Each of these models was developed with a 100-fold cross validation procedure that utilized a 70% training set and 30% validation set with each fold, and then assessed based on the 10% of testing sites that were not included in that model’s development. The mean predicted value across the 10 models is used for the trait estimate in each pixel across the study area. The models are applied according to the leaf type designation in the conifer.tif map. The errors are the standard deviation across the 10 different models developed, with high error suggesting instability in model prediction and areas where values may not be reliable for ecological inference. These maps are only applied to areas with a NDVI > 0.5 to exclude non-vegetated areas. Shade masks could be applied to these data (doi:10.15485/1618131), but have not been for this data package. These data are also available on Google Earth Engine: https://code.earthengine.google.com/?asset=users/kdc/ER_NEON

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

River Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Using Machine Learning Models and Wireless Sensor Measurements

Simultaneous flooding&heat and droughts&heat events can potentially destabilize hydro-meteorological conditions to deteriorate the water quality of Neches River. Machine learning (ML) models utilizing wireless sensor measurements have been applied to predict water quality and optimize various water management strategies. This study aims to develop ML models to predict dissolved oxygen (DO) prediction under various hydro-meteorological conditions and enhance water management decision-making. Wireless sensor measurements of DO, water temperature, sample depth, conductivity, turbidity, and pH, along with discharge from the United States Geological Survey stations, are collected for model inputs at the Pine Island Bayou C749 station (PIB-C749) and Neches River Saltwater Barrier (SWB). Multilayer perceptron neural networks, recurrent neural networks, long short-term memory (LSTM), and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) with and without attention mechanism (AT) are tested to determine the best model, which is applied the rolling forecast method to predict 14-day DO. Traditional and recurrent transfer learning (TL and RTL) methods are adopted to overcome insufficient data at the SWB. The input feature importance analysis using the integrated gradients (IG) algorithm is applied to determine dominant inputs. The results show LSTM-based models are capable handling long sequential data. AT-BiLSTM and RTL-LSTM demonstrate the best performance at the PIB-C749 (RMSE=0.054) and the SWB (RMSE=0.028), respectively. TL and RTL methods significantly improve model performance at the SWB. DO, temperature, and pH show higher importance, consistent with hydrodynamics and water chemistry. Both best models are applied to predict 14-day DO and demonstrate reasonable performance for decision-making. Hydro-meteorological conditions of 2017 flood and 2012 drought events are simulated and reveal that possible hypoxia occurs after flooding due to increasing temperature and turbidity, and DO concentration decreases significantly under heat and drought conditions. In conclusion, LSTM-based models utilizing wireless sensor data can be a timely and effective approach to make appropriate decisions on water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗