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At least 127 records · Page 7

Goal-Function Tree Modeling for Systems Engineering and Fault Management

The draft NASA Fault Management (FM) Handbook (2012) states that Fault Management (FM) is a "part of systems engineering", and that it "demands a system-level perspective" (NASAHDBK- 1002, 7). What, exactly, is the relationship between systems engineering and FM? To NASA, systems engineering (SE) is "the art and science of developing an operable system capable of meeting requirements within often opposed constraints" (NASA/SP-2007-6105, 3). Systems engineering starts with the elucidation and development of requirements, which set the goals that the system is to achieve. To achieve these goals, the systems engineer typically defines functions, and the functions in turn are the basis for design trades to determine the best means to perform the functions. System Health Management (SHM), by contrast, defines "the capabilities of a system that preserve the system's ability to function as intended" (Johnson et al., 2011, 3). Fault Management, in turn, is the operational subset of SHM, which detects current or future failures, and takes operational measures to prevent or respond to these failures. Failure, in turn, is the "unacceptable performance of intended function." (Johnson 2011, 605) Thus the relationship of SE to FM is that SE defines the functions and the design to perform those functions to meet system goals and requirements, while FM detects the inability to perform those functions and takes action. SHM and FM are in essence "the dark side" of SE. For every function to be performed (SE), there is the possibility that it is not successfully performed (SHM); FM defines the means to operationally detect and respond to this lack of success. We can also describe this in terms of goals: for every goal to be achieved, there is the possibility that it is not achieved; FM defines the means to operationally detect and respond to this inability to achieve the goal. This brief description of relationships between SE, SHM, and FM provide hints to a modeling approach to provide formal connectivity between the nominal (SE), and off-nominal (SHM and FM) aspects of functions and designs. This paper describes a formal modeling approach to the initial phases of the development process that integrates the nominal and off-nominal perspectives in a model that unites SE goals and functions of with the failure to achieve goals and functions (SHM/FM). This methodology and corresponding model, known as a Goal-Function Tree (GFT), provides a means to represent, decompose, and elaborate system goals and functions in a rigorous manner that connects directly to design through use of state variables that translate natural language requirements and goals into logical-physical state language. The state variable-based approach also provides the means to directly connect FM to the design, by specifying the range in which state variables must be controlled to achieve goals, and conversely, the failures that exist if system behavior go out-of-range. This in turn allows for the systems engineers and SHM/FM engineers to determine which state variables to monitor, and what action(s) to take should the system fail to achieve that goal. In sum, the GFT representation provides a unified approach to early-phase SE and FM development. This representation and methodology has been successfully developed and implemented using Systems Modeling Language (SysML) on the NASA Space Launch System (SLS) Program. It enabled early design trade studies of failure detection coverage to ensure complete detection coverage of all crew-threatening failures. The representation maps directly both to FM algorithm designs, and to failure scenario definitions needed for design analysis and testing. The GFT representation provided the basis for mapping of abort triggers into scenarios, both needed for initial, and successful quantitative analyses of abort effectiveness (detection and response to crew-threatening events).

Patterson, Jonathan D.↗

Identification and Analysis of National Airspace System Resource Constraints

This analysis is the deliverable for the Airspace Systems Program, Systems Analysis Integration and Evaluation Project Milestone for the Systems and Portfolio Analysis (SPA) focus area SPA.4.06 Identification and Analysis of National Airspace System (NAS) Resource Constraints and Mitigation Strategies. "Identify choke points in the current and future NAS. Choke points refer to any areas in the en route, terminal, oceanic, airport, and surface operations that constrain actual demand in current and projected future operations. Use the Common Scenarios based on Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) projections of future demand developed under SPA.4.04 Tools, Methods and Scenarios Development. Analyze causes, including operational and physical constraints." The NASA analysis is complementary to a NASA Research Announcement (NRA) "Development of Tools and Analysis to Evaluate Choke Points in the National Airspace System" Contract # NNA3AB95C awarded to Logistics Management Institute, Sept 2013.

Smith, Jeremy C.↗

Orbit Determination Error Analysis Results for the Triana Sun-Earth L2 Libration Point Mission

Using the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Orbit Determination Error Analysis System (ODEAS), orbit determination error analysis results are presented for all phases of the Triana Sun-Earth L1 libration point mission and for the science data collection phase of a future Sun-Earth L2 libration point mission. The Triana spacecraft was nominally to be released by the Space Shuttle in a low Earth orbit, and this analysis focuses on that scenario. From the release orbit a transfer trajectory insertion (TTI) maneuver performed using a solid stage would increase the velocity be approximately 3.1 km/sec sending Triana on a direct trajectory to its mission orbit. The Triana mission orbit is a Sun-Earth L1 Lissajous orbit with a Sun-Earth-vehicle (SEV) angle between 4.0 and 15.0 degrees, which would be achieved after a Lissajous orbit insertion (LOI) maneuver at approximately launch plus 6 months. Because Triana was to be launched by the Space Shuttle, TTI could potentially occur over a 16 orbit range from low Earth orbit. This analysis was performed assuming TTI was performed from a low Earth orbit with an inclination of 28.5 degrees and assuming support from a combination of three Deep Space Network (DSN) stations, Goldstone, Canberra, and Madrid and four commercial Universal Space Network (USN) stations, Alaska, Hawaii, Perth, and Santiago. These ground stations would provide coherent two-way range and range rate tracking data usable for orbit determination. Larger range and range rate errors were assumed for the USN stations. Nominally, DSN support would end at TTI+144 hours assuming there were no USN problems. Post-TTI coverage for a range of TTI longitudes for a given nominal trajectory case were analyzed. The orbit determination error analysis after the first correction maneuver would be generally applicable to any libration point mission utilizing a direct trajectory.

Marr, G.↗

SimUAM: A Comprehensive Microsimulation Toolchain to Evaluate the Impact of Urban Air Mobility in Metropolitan Areas

Over the past several years, Urban Air Mobility (UAM) has galvanized enthusiasm from investors and researchers, marrying expertise in aircraft design, transportation, logistics, artificial intelligence, battery chemistry, and broader policymaking. However, two significant questions remain unexplored: (1) What is the value of UAM in a region’s transportation network? and (2) How can UAM be effectively deployed to realize and maximize this value to all stakeholders, including riders and local economies? To adequately understand the value proposition of UAM for metropolitan areas, the authors develop a holistic multi-modal toolchain, SimUAM, to model and simulate UAM and its impacts on travel behavior. This toolchain has several components: (1) Microsimulation Analysis for Network Traffic Assignment (MANTA): A fast, high-fidelity regional-scale traffic microsimulator, (2) VertiSim: Agranular, discrete-event vertiport and pedestrian simulator, (3) Flexible Engine for Fast-time Evaluation of Flight Environments (Fe3): A high-fidelity, trajectory-based aerial microsimulation. SimUAM, rooted in granular, GPU-based microsimulation, models millions of trips and their movements in the street network and in the air, producing interpretable and actionable performance metrics for UAM designs and deployments. Once the ground-air interface is modeled, the authors find that the market for UAM decreases across all network designs relative to models with static assumptions about transfer times. However, significant improvements can be made to balance the demand and optimize the networks for transfer time, likely increasing the number of benefited trips. The modularity, extensibility, and speed of the platform will allow for rapid scenario planning and sensitivity analysis, effectively acting as a detailed performance assessment tool.

urban air mobility↗

Hazards Induced by Breach of Liquid Rocket Fuel Tanks: Conditions and Risks of Cryogenic Liquid Hydrogen-Oxygen Mixture Explosions

We analyze the data of purposeful rupture experiments with LOx and LH2 tanks, the Hydrogen-Oxygen Vertical Impact (HOVI) tests that were performed to clarify the ignition mechanisms, the explosive power of cryogenic H2/Ox mixtures under different conditions, and to elucidate the puzzling source of the initial formation of flames near the intertank section during the Challenger disaster. We carry out a physics-based analysis of general explosions scenarios for cryogenic gaseous H2/Ox mixtures and determine their realizability conditions, using the well-established simplified models from the detonation and deflagration theory. We study the features of aerosol H2/Ox mixture combustion and show, in particular, that aerosols intensify the deflagration flames and can induce detonation for any ignition mechanism. We propose a cavitation-induced mechanism of self-ignition of cryogenic H2/Ox mixtures that may be realized when gaseous H2 and Ox flows are mixed with a liquid Ox turbulent stream, as occurred in all HOVI tests. We present an overview of the HOVI tests to make conclusion on the risk of strong explosions in possible liquid rocket incidents and provide a semi-quantitative interpretation of the HOVI data based on aerosol combustion. We uncover the most dangerous situations and discuss the foreseeable risks which can arise in space missions and lead to tragic outcomes. Our analysis relates to only unconfined mixtures that are likely to arise as a result of liquid propellant space vehicle incidents.

Osipov, Viatcheslav↗

Real-Time UAV Trajectory Prediction for Safety Monitoring in Low-Altitude Airspace

The rising number of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) expected in the next decade will enable a new series of commercial, service, and military operations in low altitude airspace as well as above densely populated areas. These operations may include on-demand delivery, medical transportation services, law enforcement operations, traffic surveillance and many more. Such unprecedented scenarios create the need for robust, efficient ways to monitor the UAV state in time to guarantee safety and mitigate contingencies throughout the operations. This work proposes a generalized monitoring and prediction methodology that utilizes realtime measurements of an autonomous UAV following a series of way-points. Two different methods, based on sinusoidal acceleration profiles and high-order splines, are utilized to generate the predicted path. The monitoring approach includes dynamic trajectory re-planning in the event of unexpected detour or hovering of the UAV during flight. It can be further extended to different vehicle types, to quantify uncertainty affecting the state variables, e.g., aerodynamic and other environmental effects, and can also be implemented to prognosticate safety-critical metrics which depend on the estimated flight path and required thrust. The proposed framework is implemented on a simplified, scalable UAV modeling and control system traversing 3D trajectories. Results presented include examples of real-time predictions of the UAV trajectories during flight and a critical analysis of the proposed scenarios under uncertainty constraints.

UAV trajectory prognosis↗

Domestic and world trends affecting the future of aviation (1980 - 2000), appendix C

The results are presented of a study of variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological, and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis a series of scenarios is developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A scenario is presented which represents the manner in which events will most probably develop and their effect on the aviation industry.

Source record↗

Domestic and world trends (1980 - 2000) affecting the future of aviation

Variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century are studied. Estimates of relevant future developments are presented and their probable impact on the aviation industry in this country are identified. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis, a series of scenarios are developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand, to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A surprise free scenario is presented which represents the best judgment of the manner in which events will most probably develop and the effect on the aviation industry such developments will likely produce.

Friedman, N.↗

Asteroid collisional evolution - An integrated model for the evolution of asteroid rotation rates

A comprehensive model for the changes in asteroid spin rates due to large collisions was developed by combining the theoretical results of Cellino et al. (1990) with previously published work on spin rate changes for cratering impacts (Harris, 1979; Dobrovolskis and Burns, 1984). The spin change algorithm, when incorporated into an existing simulation of collisional effects on asteroid sizes, produced an integrated model for studying the simultaneous evolution of asteroid sizes and spin rates over the solar system history. As a result of an analysis of 32 collisional scenarios with regard to the change in the spin rate as a function of asteroid size, it is concluded that the spin rates of all asteroids, except possibly the largest ones, have been significantly altered by collisions over the solar system history and that, in general, shattering impacts are much more important than cratering events in changing the spin of asteroids.

Farinella, P.↗

Communications support for lunar missions using the TDRS II system

For several years NASA has been performing systems engineering analysis for lunar exploration scenarios with studies focused mainly on lunar communications, data systems and operations. Two basic earth-region communications architectures have been seriously considered, ground terminal architectures such as the deep space network (DSN) and geosynchronous relay satellites such as the tracking and data relay satellite II (TDRS II). An overview of TDRS II is given and lunar coverage, data rate capability, impacts to ground based elements, availability and operational scenarios are discussed. Development of the system is scheduled to begin soon and TDRS II can provide substantial support to early lunar missions without modification. Coverage and data rates are adequate and FLO missions can be supported. With enhancement nearly continuous coverage can be provided. TDRS II is a viable architecture and low cost option and should be considered as an alternative to the currently baselined DSN for precursor and possibly FLO missions.

Todd, Jacqueline↗

How the magnetosphere is driven into the substorm

This paper puts together several aspects of the substorm phenomena into a scenario subject to quantitative analysis, based on Ampere's law, magnetic stresses, and the effect of the parallel electric field. As the magnetospheric convection continuously shears the magnetic field, the parallel electric field suddenly switches on when the shear reaches a critical value. The parallel electric field not only accelerates the charged particles to cause the auroral display but also partially decouples the ionosphere from the magnetosphere so that the magnetospheric convection is enhanced significantly, causing the substorm expansion phase. Pi 2 pulsations are excited by the change of the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. We show a direct relationship between the parallel potential drop, the enhanced convection rate, and the amplitude of the Pi 2 pulsations. With no adjustable parameter, the relationship shows quantitative agreement with the diverse observations.

Zhu, Xiaoming↗

A Method for Evaluating the Safety Impacts of Air Traffic Automation

This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety and operational impacts of emerging air traffic technologies. The approach integrates traditional reliability models of the system infrastructure with models that analyze the environment within which the system operates, and models of how the system responds to different scenarios. Products of the analysis include safety measures such as predicted incident rates, predicted accident statistics, and false alarm rates; and operational availability data. The report demonstrates the methodology with an analysis of the operation of the Center-TRACON Automation System at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.

Kostiuk, Peter↗

Model of Atmospheric Links on Optical Communications from High Altitude

Optical communication links have the potential to solve many of the problems of current radio and microwave links to satellites and high-altitude aircraft. The higher frequency involved in optical systems allows for significantly greater signal bandwidth, and thus information transfer rate, in excess of 10 Gbps, and the highly directional nature of laser-based signals eliminates the need for frequency-division multiplexing seen in radio and microwave links today. The atmosphere, however, distorts an optical signal differently than a microwave signal. While the ionosphere is one of the most significant sources of noise and distortion in a microwave or radio signal, the lower atmosphere affects an optical signal more significantly. Refractive index fluctuations, primarily caused by changes in atmospheric temperature and density, distort the incoming signal in both deterministic and nondeterministic ways. Additionally, suspended particles, such as those in haze or rain, further corrupt the transmitted signal. To model many of the atmospheric effects on the propagating beam, we use simulations based on the beam-propagation method. This method, developed both for simulation of signals in waveguides and propagation in atmospheric turbulence, separates the propagation into a diffraction and refraction problem. The diffraction step is an exact solution, within the limits of numerical precision, to the problem of propagation in free space, and the refraction step models the refractive index variances over a segment of the propagation path. By applying refraction for a segment of the propagation path, then diffracting over that same segment, this method forms a good approximation to true propagation through the atmospheric medium. Iterating over small segments of the total propagation path gives a good approximation to the problem of propagation over the entire path. Parameters in this model, such as initial beam profile and atmospheric constants, are easily modified in a simulation such as this, which allows for the rapid analysis of different propagation scenarios. Therefore, this method allows the development of a near-optimal system design for a wide range of situations, typical of what would be seen in different atmospheric conditions over a receiving ground station. A simulation framework based upon this model was developed in FORTRAN, and for moderate grid sizes and propagation distances these simulations are computable in reasonable time on a standard workstation. This presentation will discuss results thus far.

Subich, Christopher↗

Zero Boiloff Storage of Cryogenic Propellants Achieved at Lewis' Supplemental Multilayer Insulation Research Facility

Tests conducted at the NASA Lewis Research Center's Supplemental Multilayer Insulation Research Facility (SMIRF) demonstrated that a hybrid thermal control system could eliminate boiloff of cryogenic propellants. This is significant because of the substantial mass and cost savings that could be achieved for any long-duration space mission that requires cryogenic propellants. With long-duration cryogenic storage, propellants will boil off because of the environmental heating of the tank. To accommodate these losses, extra propellant is required along with larger propellant tanks. Analysis of Mars mission scenarios using space-transfer cryogenic stages showed that significant savings in propellant mass and tank size could be achieved if it were possible to eliminate or significantly reduce propellant boiloff. Engineers and technicians at NASA Lewis designed, built, and tested a hybrid thermal control system to eliminate or significantly reduce cryogenic propellant boiloff. The system consists of an active cryocooling system using a cryocooler in addition to the traditional passive thermal insulation, as shown in the photo.

Plachta, David W.↗

Using Qualitative Hazard Analysis to Guide Quantitative Safety Analysis

Quantitative methods can be beneficial in many types of safety investigations. However, there are many difficulties in using quantitative m ethods. Far example, there may be little relevant data available. This paper proposes a framework for using quantitative hazard analysis to prioritize hazard scenarios most suitable for quantitative mziysis. The framework first categorizes hazard scenarios by severity and likelihood. We then propose another metric "modeling difficulty" that desc ribes the complexity in modeling a given hazard scenario quantitatively. The combined metrics of severity, likelihood, and modeling difficu lty help to prioritize hazard scenarios for which quantitative analys is should be applied. We have applied this methodology to proposed concepts of operations for reduced wake separation for airplane operatio ns at closely spaced parallel runways.

Shortle, J. F.↗

Model-Based Verification and Validation of Spacecraft Avionics

Our simulation was able to mimic the results of 30 tests on the actual hardware. This shows that simulations have the potential to enable early design validation - well before actual hardware exists. Although simulations focused around data processing procedures at subsystem and device level, they can also be applied to system level analysis to simulate mission scenarios and consumable tracking (e.g. power, propellant, etc.). Simulation engine plug-in developments are continually improving the product, but handling time for time-sensitive operations (like those of the remote engineering unit and bus controller) can be cumbersome.

Systems Modeling Language (SysML↗

Spatially Refined Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing Efficiencies

Global aerosol direct radiative forcing (DRF) is an important metric for assessing potential climate impacts of future emissions changes. However, the radiative consequences of emissions perturbations are not readily quantified nor well understood at the level of detail necessary to assess realistic policy options. To address this challenge, here we show how adjoint model sensitivities can be used to provide highly spatially resolved estimates of the DRF from emissions of black carbon (BC), primary organic carbon (OC), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ammonia (NH3), using the example of emissions from each sector and country following multiple Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs). The radiative forcing efficiencies of many individual emissions are found to differ considerably from regional or sectoral averages for NH3, SO2 from the power sector, and BC from domestic, industrial, transportation and biomass burning sources. Consequently, the amount of emissions controls required to attain a specific DRF varies at intracontinental scales by up to a factor of 4. These results thus demonstrate both a need and means for incorporating spatially refined aerosol DRF into analysis of future emissions scenario and design of air quality and climate change mitigation policies.

Climate↗