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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Cryogenic tracer irradiation facility at the university of Texas at Austin

We report on a cryogenic gas irradiation facility in the 1.1 MW TRIGA reactor at The University of Texas at Austin. The system was designed to produce radioactive xenon and argon for environmental studies, and it can be applied to produce other gaseous radiotracers. The system design includes modeling accident scenarios to ensure operation does not risk damage to the reactor and minimizes risk of release of radioactive material. In conclusion, the SCALE code was used to model a 30-day irradiation of one liter of Xe-126 and the predicted activity is 0.9 Ci of Xe-127 at irradiation end.

Ar-37↗
DOE OSTI2026

Overview of the physics basis for the ARC fusion power plant

Commonwealth Fusion Systems plans to build ARC as the first fusion power plant at a site in Chesterfield County, Virginia, USA by the early 2030s. We present an overview of analysis comprising the physics basis of the ARC V3A design, a high-magnetic-field tokamak with 𝐵 0 =11.4 T, 𝐼 𝑝 =12.0 MA, 𝑅 0 =4.62 m, 𝑎 =1.18 m. ARC V3A is designed to produce 𝑃 𝑓⁡𝑢⁢𝑠 ≈1.13 GW DT fusion power and deliver ⩾400 MW net electric power to the grid. This overview includes quantitative analysis of fundamental issues for design of and operational plasma scenarios for a tokamak power plant, and lays out the design targets and strategic choices for ARC, including empirical fusion performance projections, assessment of H-mode access, ion cyclotron resonance heating simulations, alpha particle physics and time-dependent full-pulse simulations. This is complemented by topical papers on fusion performance and transport, disruption physics, boundary physics and magnetohydrodynamic stability. Critically, these studies identify key model uncertainties and physics risks to be retired through SPARC operation. Due to the modular nature of ARC, early results from SPARC can be incorporated into the design of the first ARC as well as subsequent replacements of the ARC vacuum vessel.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning enhanced predictions of ICRF heating: Overcoming numerical limitations via data curation

In this work, we present the development of robust surrogate models for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) and High-Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating predictions in fusion plasmas. Building upon our previous efforts to achieve real-time capable models, we identify the cause of the outliers found using TORIC in certain HHFW heating scenarios. The outliers are observed to be spurious ion Bernstein wave (IBW)-like modes caused by a wavelength control algorithm designed to address challenging scenarios with high perpendicular wavenumbers. The effect arises from the modulation in the perpendicular susceptibility, which can induce sign reversal and IBW-like propagation for scenarios featuring normalized ion Larmor radius λ i ≫ 1. We use TORIC with this algorithm disabled to generate a novel HHFW-NSTX database that is free of outliers. Surrogate models trained on this database, including Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Multi-Layer Perceptrons, and Gaussian Process Regressors (GPR), demonstrate the ability to accurately predict HHFW heating profiles, with regression scores of R 2 ∈[0.93−0.99]. Additionally we demonstrate that it is possible to generalize predictions beyond training data by the use of both RFR and GPR models, enabling the prediction of scenarios previously limited to the original model. GPR models also provide uncertainty quantification, offering insights into model confidence. This work introduces a comprehensive Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification methodology for surrogate modeling, applicable not only to ICRF heating but also to other RF heating challenges and fusion physics problems. Beyond accelerated inference, these models show effective extrapolation capabilities, providing an alternative for addressing numerical challenges.

Artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2022

An optimization framework for the network design of advanced district thermal energy systems

In this work, a topology optimization framework for district thermal energy systems is presented. The framework seeks to address the questions, for a given district, "What is the best subset of buildings to connect to a district thermal energy system, and by what network should they be connected, to minimize life cycle cost?" A particle swarm optimization approach is validated to address the selection of the subset of buildings, and a graph theory-based heuristic is validated for selection of the network topology for any candidate subset of buildings. The framework is applied to a prototypical urban district for illustrative purposes. Additionally, modeling of prototypical districts revealed reductions in source energy use intensity for heating and cooling of 21-25% through the use of advanced district energy systems relative to code-compliant, building level systems. The framework identifies solutions with life cycle cost values 14% to 72% lower than that of base case scenarios based on conventional design approaches, depending on the base case scenario selected. Analysis of the search space indicates that topology optimization facilitates reductions in life cycle cost, source energy use intensity, and carbon emissions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Architectural development of an ST fusion device

A recent U.S. National Academy study recommended the development of a next step Sustained High Power Density (SHPD) facility within the U.S. as an intermediate step in designing and building a Pilot Plant device. Several papers have been written describing the physics, design and engineering scoping analysis performed in developing this machine design. This paper places emphasis on the continued evolution of the architectural development of past activities to meet the requirements of an ST fusion pilot plant and power plant. The current effort centers on meeting basic physics and component requirements in a machine design that improves the chance of achieving fission level availability (95%) within an arrangement that promotes design simplicity, offsite construction with on-site modular assembly. As a prelude to both the SHPD and Pilot Plant, a scoping design of a 500MWe Spherical Tokamak Advanced Reactor (STAR) has been defined to investigate design options and physics scenarios that can successfully meet physics performance, engineering requirements and economic conditions of an ST power plant. Following a successful physics/engineering assessment, the STAR Power Plant design will be downsized to meet the specifications established in the design of a near term ST Pilot Plant

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

ARC physics basis–magnetohydrodynamics

ARC is designed to produce 400 ⁢MW of net electricity and prove the commercial feasibility of a fusion power plant. In order to achieve this goal ARC has to operate with optimal core performance in a stationary scenario that minimises wear on the first wall and divertor. This requires avoiding or mitigating magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities which have the potential to not only degrade the plasma core but also lead to deleterious transient heat loads on plasma facing components. Therefore, this work aims at characterising the MHD stability of the high performance ARC scenario and inform the design of error field correction coils. Firstly, simulations of vertical displacement events show that an in-vessel coil is not needed and instead the poloidal shaping coils can be used to control vertical stability. These simulations also inform the demands on the corresponding coil power supplies. Stability analysis of the ideal kink mode with or without a conducting wall and kinetic effects suggests that the ARC baseline scenario operates deeply in the stable region. Using RDCON, tearing modes at the 𝑚/𝑛 =2/1 and 3/2 surfaces (with poloidal mode number 𝑚, and toroidal mode number 𝑛) are shown to be linearly stable, and including thermal transport effects in the rational surfaces lead to further stabilisation. However, other transient plasma instabilities can seed neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs). The marginally stable width of NTMs in ARC strongly depends on the internal inductance and can fall below 0.1% of the normalised poloidal flux. Furthermore, an empirical cross-machine model of the 𝑛 =1 error field leading to a disruption predicts a critical error field larger than SPARC but smaller than ITER. Three-dimensional coils can be designed with the Generalised Purturbed Equilbium Code based on a simple model that calculates the maximum correctable error field that is limited by the neoclassical toroidal viscosity torque. Broad scans of different coil geometries identify a set of 2 rows of off-midplane coils to be a suitable solution. It is also determined that such a set of three-dimensional coils is capable of correcting 𝑛 =2 error fields to some degree and creating strong enough 𝑛 =2 or 𝑛 =3 edge resonant perturbation fields for the suppression of edge-localised modes at reasonable coil currents. The final design of the first ARC will be further informed by results from SPARC.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fuel performance evaluation of two high burnup PWR core designs during normal operation, control rod withdrawal, and control rod ejection scenarios

There is interest among utilities to extend the current, 18-month operating cycle to 24 months. Economically, this extension would require greater than 5 % enrichment and peak rod average discharge burnup levels above 62 GWd/MTU. A notable challenge of increasing enrichment is the resulting additional excess reactivity encountered during the early stages of fuel life. To accommodate, burnable absorbers beyond soluble boron are introduced into the fuel system. In high burnup fuels, the possibilities of cladding lift-off and fuel melting increase due, in part, to increased rod internal pressures and limited fuel thermal conductivity, respectively. This work collaboratively employs PARCS, RELAP5-3D, and BISON to compare the fuel performance of two high burnup fuel candidates with higher than 5 % enrichment. Here, the fuel performance parameters were compared to current NRC guidance. The results demonstrate an annular fuel design with homogenously blended gadolinium as a burnable absorber operates with greater safety margins during normal operation, allowing for additional operational flexibility. During normal operation, the core design utilizing Integral Fuel Burnable Absorber pins contained fuel pins which reached plenum pressures above 15.5 MPa by the end of the first fuel cycle and fuel pins experienced cladding hoop strains above 1 %. In the Gd core design, only two observed pins experienced plenum pressures above 15.5 MPa and no pins exceeded 1 % cladding hoop strain. During the control rod withdrawal scenario, plenum pressures for pins in both designs marginally exceeded system pressure, however neither experienced excessive hoop strain. The Gd core design experienced a maximum fuel temperature of 2418 K, which is significantly higher than the Integral Fuel Burnable Absorber design at 2157 K, but still within regulatory guidance. We predicted that the fuel in both could return to service after the CRW event. We also predicted that cladding would not fail during the Control Rod Ejection in either core design. Generally, the Integral Fuel Burnable Absorber core design performed with greater safety margin with regards to temperature during normal operation and the transient events. However, the Gd core design performed with greater safety margin regarding plenum pressure and hoop strain limits during normal operation and both transient events.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Renewable hydrogen and ammonia for combined heat and power systems in remote locations: Optimal design and scheduling

Abstract Using hydrogen (H ) and ammonia (NH ) for renewable energy storage has the potential to enable economical power and heat supply with high renewable penetrations, especially in remote locations which are characterized by high energy costs. In this work we assess the economic competitiveness of renewable combined heat and power (CHP) systems in Mahaka HI, Nantucket MA, and Northwest Arctic Borough (NWAB) AK by optimally designing these systems for scenarios in which power and heat can be purchased over a range of historical energy prices as well as when 100% renewable supply is required. We use a combined optimal design and scheduling model which minimizes annualized net present cost by determining optimal technology selection and size simultaneously with optimal schedules for each period of a system operating horizon aggregated from full year hourly resolution data via a consecutive temporal clustering algorithm. We find that renewable generation meets at least 85% of power demands and 75% of heat demands under the lowest energy prices investigated. Higher conventional energy prices lead to increased renewable penetration which is facilitated by renewable NH as a seasonal energy storage medium, as are 100% renewable CHP systems. NH is used for power generation with heat cogeneration in all three locations, as well as directly for heating in NWAB. On an annual cost basis, NH ‐enabled 100% renewable CHP is only 3% more expensive in Mahaka and NWAB than systems which can purchase energy at the lowest prices, while it is 15% more expensive in Nantucket.

Palys, Matthew J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

An error-in-constitutive equations strategy for topology optimization for frequency-domain dynamics

This paper presents a topology optimization formulation for frequency-domain dynamics to reduce solution dependence upon initial guess and considered loading conditions. Due to resonance phenomena in undamped steady-state dynamics, objectives measuring dynamic response possess many local minima that may represent poor solutions to a design problem, an issue exacerbated for design with respect to multiple frequencies. In this work, we propose an extension of the modified error-in-constitutive-equations (MECE) method, used previously in material identification inverse problems, as a new approach for frequency-domain dynamics topology optimization to mitigate these issues. The main idea of the proposed framework is to incorporate an additional penalty-like term in the objective function that measures the discrepancy in the constitutive relations between stresses and strains and between inertial forces and displacements. Then, the design problem is cast within a PDE-constrained optimization formulation in which we seek displacements, stresses, inertial forces, and a density-field solution that minimize our new objective subject to conservation of linear momentum plus some additional constraints. We show that this approach yields superior designs to conventional gradient-based optimization approaches that solely use a functional of displacements as the objective, while strictly enforcing the constitutive equations. The MECE strategy integrates into a density-based topology optimization scheme for void–solid or two-phase material structural design. We highlight the merits of our approach in a variety of scenarios for direct frequency response design, considering multiple frequency load cases and structural objectives.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Apparatus and method for safety analysis evaluation with data-driven workflow

An apparatus and method for system safety analysis evaluation is provided, the apparatus including processing circuitry configured for generating a calculation matrix for a system, generating a plurality of models based on the calculation matrix, performing a benchmarking or convolution analysis of the plurality of models, identifying a design envelope based on the benchmarking or convolution analysis, deriving uncertainty models from the benchmarking or convolution analysis, deriving an assessment judgment based on the uncertainty models and acceptance criteria, defining one or more limiting scenarios based on the design envelope, and determining a safety margin in at least one figure-of-merit for the system based on the design envelope and the acceptance criteria.

Martin, Robert P.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Apparatus and method for safety analysis evaluation with data-driven workflow

An apparatus and method for system safety analysis evaluation is provided, the apparatus including processing circuitry configured for generating a calculation matrix for a system, generating a plurality of models based on the calculation matrix, performing a benchmarking or convolution analysis of the plurality of models, identifying a design envelope based on the benchmarking or convolution analysis, deriving uncertainty models from the benchmarking or convolution analysis, deriving an assessment judgment based on the uncertainty models and acceptance criteria, defining one or more limiting scenarios based on the design envelope, and determining a safety margin in at least one figure-of-merit for the system based on the design envelope and the acceptance criteria.

Martin, Robert P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling of fission and activation products in molten salt reactors and their potential impact on the radionuclide monitoring stations of the International Monitoring System

Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) are one of six Generation IV reactor designs currently under development around the world. Because of the unique operating conditions of MSRs, which include molten fuel and the continuous removal of gaseous fission products during operation, work was performed to analyze the potential impact of emissions on the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Simulations were performed to predict the production of IMS-relevant radionuclides in four MSR designs operating under two scenarios: (1) a sealed reactor with releases only during operational shutdown, and (2) continuous reprocessing or sparging of the fuel salt. From these production estimates the radioxenon and radioiodine signatures were extracted and compared to three current reactor designs (Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR), BWR, RBMK). In cases where continuous reprocessing of the fuel salt occurred, both the radioxenon and radioiodine signatures were nearly indistinguishable from a nuclear explosion. Estimates were also made of the potential emission rate of radioxenon for three reactor designs and it was found that MSRs have the potential to emit radioxenon isotopes at a rate of 10^15-8×10^16 Bq/d for 133Xe if no abatement is used. An assessment was made of activation products using a candidate fuel salt (FLiBe) mixed with corrosion products for the Thorium Molten Salt Reactor (TMSR-LF1).

Johnson, Christine M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling of fission and activation products in molten salt reactors and their potential impact on the radionuclide monitoring stations of the International Monitoring System

Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs) are one of six Generation IV reactor designs currently under development around the world. Because of the unique operating conditions of MSRs, which include molten fuel and the continuous removal of gaseous fission products during operation, work was performed to analyze the potential impact of emissions on the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Simulations were performed to predict the production of IMS-relevant radionuclides in four MSR designs operating under two scenarios – (1) a sealed reactor with releases only during operational shutdown and (2) continuous reprocessing or sparging of the fuel salt. From these production estimates the radioxenon and radioiodine signatures were extracted and compared to three current reactor designs (PWR, BWR, RBMK). In the cases where continuous reprocessing of the fuel salt occurred both the radioxenon and radioiodine signatures are nearly indistinguishable from a nuclear explosion. Estimates were also made of the potential emission rate of radioxenon for three reactor designs and it was found that MSRs have the potential to emit radioxenon isotopes at a rate of 1015 – 8×1016 Bq/d for 133Xe if no abatement is used. An assessment was also made of activation products using a candidate fuel salt (FLiBe) mixed with corrosion products for the Thorium Molten Salt Reactor (TMSR-LF1)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Power System Flexibility Requirements and Supply

As penetrations of variable renewable energy generation technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) continue to increase across the United States, greater uncertainty and variability in the net load often lead to a concern about how power systems may adapt. Managing the system net load (i.e., load minus contribution from variable generation technologies) may become more challenging with increasing variable generation, as the magnitude and frequency of net ramps increase. However, there is inherent flexibility in power systems through the conventional generator fleet (under least-cost unit commitment and economic dispatch), less-conventional generation sources (e.g., storage, demand response, concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage), and imports and exports with neighbors. In this analysis, we create an open-source tool to analyze the flexibility of the results of a specific commercial unit commitment and economic dispatch tool (PLEXOS), but the code can be applied generically as well. The tool assesses the flexibility requirements (or demand) of a system through a net load analysis. The constraints and limitations of each generator are then considered to determine the availability (or supply) of flexibility. Then, the supply and demand of flexibility are compared to gain a more complete picture of potential flexibility concerns. We apply this open-source tool to high-penetration PV scenarios constructed for three focus regions in the western United States defined using the Resource Planning Model (RPM) capacity expansion modeling tool: RPM-OR, RPM-CO, and RPM-AZ. Generally, we find few flexibility concerns, as the western United States represents a large and interconnected power system with significant inherent flexibility. In addition, the PV scenarios we analyzed are overbuilt on capacity, leaving plenty of ramping ability on the system. We do find that for each focus region, the impact of imports on meeting ramping needs is essential. This means the PV integration in each focus region impacts the entire rest of the system. Each system has different dominant sources of flexibility. The conventional generator fleet (especially coal and gas combined-cycle technologies) as well as less-conventional sources such as storage are all shown to be important sources of flexibility. The scenarios evaluated here were designed to study the planning and operations impact of high solar penetration in each of three focus regions. However, none of the three focus regions likely will deploy PV in isolation, meaning the ability of imports and exports to provide flexibility may be considerably different in scenarios with strong PV deployment in every region. Overall, we intend that the framework we present here will be useful in future analysis of other system evolutions to identify whether and how flexibility may constrain the successful deployment of variable generation technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

An OpenStreetMaps based tool to study the energy demand and emissions impact of electrification of medium and heavy-duty freight trucks

In this paper, we present the mathematical formulation of an OpenStreetMaps (OSM) based tool that compares the costs and emissions of long-haul medium and heavy-duty (M&HD) electric and diesel freight trucks, and determines the spatial distribution of added energy demand due to M&HD EVs. The optimization utilizes a combination of information on routes from OSM, utility rate design data across the United States, and freight volume data, to determine these values. In order to deal with the computational complexity of this problem, we formulate the problem as a convex optimization problem that is scalable to a large geographic area. In our analysis, we further evaluate various scenarios of utility rate design (energy charges) and EV penetration rate across different geographic regions and their impact on the operating cost and emissions of the freight trucks. Our approach determines the net emissions reduction benefits of freight electrification by considering the primary energy source in different regions. Such analysis will provide insights to policy makers in designing utility rates for electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) operators depending upon the specific geographic region and to electric utilities in deciding infrastructure upgrades based on the spatial distribution of the added energy demand of M&HD EVs. To showcase the results, a case study for the U.S. state of Texas is conducted.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Planning for Material Control and Accountancy at Liquid Fueled Molten Salt Reactors

The purpose of this report is to provide molten salt reactor (MSR) developers and future US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) license applicants with recommendations for developing an effective and practical material control and accounting (MC&A) plan, focused primarily on MSR designs that use circulating liquid fuel. Because of the breadth of MSR designs, there is no single, generic, detailed MC&A plan that will work for every design. The wide variation of fresh fuel salts, the method and frequency of loading fresh fuel, the reactor system design components (e.g., tanks, filtration systems, chemical processing streams), and waste streams will determine the specific measurement locations and instrumentation that can best meet MC&A objectives throughout an MSR facility. Additionally, MSR designs are rapidly evolving, and new design features and deployment scenarios that will affect MC&A are being explored and pursued. This report defines a generic MC&A approach that was developed for terrestrial (as opposed to maritime) deployments to meet the intent of NRC domestic safeguards and MC&A. MSR license applicants should consider nuclear safeguards (both domestic and international) and security throughout the design, as early as the preconceptual design phase. MC&A of special nuclear material (SNM) is an aspect of the NRC’s domestic safeguards program, alongside physical protection. Because liquid-fueled MSRs are reactors with SNM in nondiscrete (or item) form, it is likely that the NRC may require liquid-fueled MSR license applicants to submit a formal MC&A plan as a part of their license application. Currently, the NRC licensing protocol presents a challenge because the NRC MC&A regulations have not been updated to accommodate advanced reactors, including types of MSRs. Because no liquid-fueled MSR has been licensed for operation at the time of this report, no template or precedence for a successfully licensed MSR MC&A plan exists. However, the MSR license applicant can take advantage of the NRC’s published commitments to performance-based regulations. The authors recommend that the license applicant, or MSR designers, develop an MC&A plan throughout the design lifecycle and plan to submit a detailed MC&A program description, or MC&A plan, to the NRC as a part of a license application. No MC&A plan template or guidance exists that is specific to liquid-fueled MSRs. The authors recommend that license applicants discuss the topic of MC&A during preapplication engagement. Because of the uniqueness of MC&A for liquid fueled MSRs, the authors recommend that liquid fueled MSR developers engage with the NRC on the topic of MC&A in the early phases of its design development and follow up any time there are significant modifications in design plans that would affect MC&A. For example, topics like modifications in fuel handling processes, changes in uranium enrichment, or additional chemical processing streams added to the design could be discussed with the NRC specifically on the topic of MC&A.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring scenarios for enhanced fuel compression and performance on the National Ignition Facility with machine-learning-aided design techniques

Recent fusion experiments on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) have achieved ignition, producing multi-MJ fusion yields for input laser energies of roughly 2 MJ [Abu-Shawareb et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 132, 065102 (2024)]. Building on the success of the target designs that have achieved ignition, we explore new implosion scenarios predicted to generate significantly more compression of the dense DT ice layer and correspondingly higher yields while preserving many of the key physics characteristics of present-day ignition designs. Our main result is a novel 3-shock implosion scheme that effectively minimizes the shock-induced entropy in the dense, accelerating DT shell and maximizes the resulting fuel compression subject to a fixed leading shock strength consistent with present-day ignition experiments, which is necessary to melt the crystalline high-density carbon ablator. Compared to the first NIF experiment to fulfill Lawson's ignition criterion, shot N210808 [Abu-Shawareb et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 129, 075001 (2022)], our design exhibits a 40% increase in simulated peak areal density (ρR) and a 5× increase in 1D fusion yield using a 4% lighter ablator and identical DT payloads. We also present a complete integrated 2D hohlraum design and laser pulse specifications capable of generating the desired 3-shock drive and maintaining control of the low-mode capsule implosion symmetry, where the increase in simulated 2D yield relative to N210808 is > 10×. This new implosion regime was discovered with help from a machine-learning-enabled capsule design optimization framework. We outline the workflow this automated tool uses to identify improved design candidates by running several rounds of capsule simulations, constructing a surrogate model mapping input variations to key physics output quantities, and querying the resulting statistical model to propose adjustments to the x-ray drive and capsule to reach a set of physics objectives prescribed by the designer.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Total cost of ownership of vehicle electrification and fuel switching options for light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles

Projecting the transition from combustion engines to battery-based powertrains is complex becuase it involves numerous interdependent decisions. This study estimates total cost of ownership (TCO) to assess the economic viability of powertrain electrification, focusing exclusively on advances in vehicle and fuel technologies. Under two bounding technology-progress scenarios, we develop vehicle designs and fuel cost trajectories, which serve as inputs to TCO projections for selected classes from 2021 to 2050. We analyzed a small sport utility vehicle (SUV) to represent the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector, and four medium- and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) classes: Class 6 box delivery, Class 8 drayage, Class 8 long-haul, and Class 8 transit bus. For each class, we compared the TCO of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles (FCHEVs) against conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). The results show that modern ICEVs generally have lower TCO; however, BEVs and FCHEVs could match or have lower TCOs than ICEVs over time, depending on technological progress. In LDVs, BEV300 is projected to deliver the lowest TCO by 2050, particularly under the high-progress scenario. In MHDVs, both BEVs and FCHEVs could become more cost-competitive than ICEVs by 2050 in the high-progress case. Beyond these results, the findings suggest further investigation is warranted for BEV charging infrastructure, FCHEV hydrogen refueling infrastructure, and MHDV charging strategies. In conclusion, these factors could reduce the fuel-cost share of TCO and enhance the competitiveness of BEVs and FCHEVs relative to ICEVs.

Battery electric vehicle↗