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DOE OSTI2023

Improving AlphaFold2-based protein tertiary structure prediction with MULTICOM in CASP15

Since the 14th Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP14), AlphaFold2 has become the standard method for protein tertiary structure prediction. One remaining challenge is to further improve its prediction. We developed a new version of the MULTICOM system to sample diverse multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) and structural templates to improve the input for AlphaFold2 to generate structural models. The models are then ranked by both the pairwise model similarity and AlphaFold2 self-reported model quality score. The top ranked models are refined by a novel structure alignment-based refinement method powered by Foldseek. Moreover, for a monomer target that is a subunit of a protein assembly (complex), MULTICOM integrates tertiary and quaternary structure predictions to account for tertiary structural changes induced by protein-protein interaction. The system participated in the tertiary structure prediction in 2022 CASP15 experiment. Our server predictor MULTICOM_refine ranked 3rd among 47 CASP15 server predictors and our human predictor MULTICOM ranked 7th among all 132 human and server predictors. The average GDT-TS score and TM-score of the first structural models that MULTICOM_refine predicted for 94 CASP15 domains are ~0.80 and ~0.92, 9.6% and 8.2% higher than ~0.73 and 0.85 of the standard AlphaFold2 predictor respectively.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Methods for rule-based genome design

Methods and systems for designing, testing, and validating genome designs based on rules or constraints or conditions or parameters or features and scoring are described herein. A computer-implemented method includes receiving data for a known genome and a list of alleles, identifying and removing occurrences of each allele in the known genome, determining a plurality of allele choices with which to replace occurrences in the known genome, generating a plurality of alternative gene sequences for a genome design based on the known genome, wherein each alternative gene sequence comprises a different allele choice, applying a plurality of rules or constraints or conditions or parameters or features to each alternative gene sequence by assigning a score for each rule or constraint or condition or parameter or feature in each alternative gene sequence, resulting in scores for the applied plurality of rules or constraints or conditions or parameters or features, scoring each alternative gene sequence based on a weighted combination of the scores for the plurality of rules or constraints or conditions or parameters or features, and selecting at least one alternative gene sequence as the genome design based on the scoring.

Kuznetsov, Gleb↗

DOE OSTI2023

Single-trial classification of evoked responses to auditory tones using OPM- and SQUID-MEG

Abstract Objective. Optically pumped magnetometers (OPMs) are emerging as a near-room-temperature alternative to superconducting quantum interference devices (SQUIDs) for magnetoencephalography (MEG). In contrast to SQUIDs, OPMs can be placed in a close proximity to subject’s scalp potentially increasing the signal-to-noise ratio and spatial resolution of MEG. However, experimental demonstrations of these suggested benefits are still scarce. Here, to compare a 24-channel OPM-MEG system to a commercial whole-head SQUID system in a data-driven way, we quantified their performance in classifying single-trial evoked responses. Approach. We measured evoked responses to three auditory tones in six participants using both OPM- and SQUID-MEG systems. We performed pairwise temporal classification of the single-trial responses with linear discriminant analysis as well as multiclass classification with both EEGNet convolutional neural network and xDAWN decoding. Main results. OPMs provided higher classification accuracies than SQUIDs having a similar coverage of the left hemisphere of the participant. However, the SQUID sensors covering the whole helmet had classification scores larger than those of OPMs for two of the tone pairs, demonstrating the benefits of a whole-head measurement. Significance. The results demonstrate that the current OPM-MEG system provides high-quality data about the brain with room for improvement for high bandwidth non-invasive brain–computer interfacing.

Iivanainen, Joonas (ORCID:0000000160344604)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Design and implementation of I/O performance prediction scheme on HPC systems through large-scale log analysis

Abstract Large-scale high performance computing (HPC) systems typically consist of many thousands of CPUs and storage units used by hundreds to thousands of users simultaneously. Applications from large numbers of users have diverse characteristics, such as varying computation, communication, memory, and I/O intensity. A good understanding of the performance characteristics of each user application is important for job scheduling and resource provisioning. Among these performance characteristics, I/O performance is becoming increasingly important as data sizes rapidly increase and large-scale applications, such as simulation and model training, are widely adopted. However, predicting I/O performance is difficult because I/O systems are shared among all users and involve many layers of software and hardware stack, including the application, network interconnect, operating system, file system, and storage devices. Furthermore, updates to these layers and changes in system management policy can significantly alter the I/O behavior of applications and the entire system. To improve the prediction of the I/O performance on HPC systems, we propose integrating information from several different system logs and developing a regression-based approach to predict the I/O performance. Our proposed scheme can dynamically select the most relevant features from the log entries using various feature selection algorithms and scoring functions, and can automatically select the regression algorithm with the best accuracy for the prediction task. The evaluation results show that our proposed scheme can predict the write performance with up to 90% prediction accuracy and the read performance with up to 99% prediction accuracy using the real logs from the Cori supercomputer system at NERSC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Aggregation and analysis of indication-symptom relationships for drugs approved in the USA

Abstract Purpose Drug indications and disease symptoms often confound adverse event reports in real-world datasets, including electronic health records and reports in the FDA Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS). A thorough, standardized set of indications and symptoms is needed to identify these confounders in such datasets for drug research and safety assessment. The aim of this study is to create a comprehensive list of drug-indication associations and disease-symptom associations using multiple resources, including existing databases and natural language processing. Methods Drug indications for drugs approved in the USA were extracted from two databases, RxNorm and Side Effect Resource (SIDER). Symptoms for these indications were extracted from MedlinePlus and using natural language processing from PubMed abstracts. Results A total of 1361 unique drugs, 1656 unique indications, and 2201 unique symptoms were extracted from a wide variety of MedDRA System Organ Classes. Text-mining precision was maximized at 0.65 by examining Term Frequency Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) scores of the disease-symptom associations. Conclusion The drug-indication associations and disease-symptom associations collected in this study may be useful in identifying confounders in other datasets, such as safety reports. With further refinement and additional drugs, indications, and symptoms, this dataset may become a quality resource for disease symptoms.

Punyala, Ananth↗

DOE OSTI2023

When Spectral Modeling Meets Convolutional Networks: A Method for Discovering Reionization-era Lensed Quasars in Multiband Imaging Data

Over the last two decades, around 300 quasars have been discovered at z ≳ 6, yet only one has been identified as being strongly gravitationally lensed. We explore a new approach—enlarging the permitted spectral parameter space, while introducing a new spatial geometry veto criterion—which is implemented via image-based deep learning. We first apply this approach to a systematic search for reionization-era lensed quasars, using data from the Dark Energy Survey, the Visible and Infrared Survey Telescope for Astronomy Hemisphere Survey, and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. Our search method consists of two main parts: (i) the preselection of the candidates, based on their spectral energy distributions (SEDs), using catalog-level photometry; and (ii) relative probability calculations of the candidates being a lens or some contaminant, utilizing a convolutional neural network (CNN) classification. The training data sets are constructed by painting deflected point-source lights over actual galaxy images, to generate realistic galaxy–quasar lens models, optimized to find systems with small image separations, i.e., Einstein radii of θ E ≤ 1''. Visual inspection is then performed for sources with CNN scores of P lens > 0.1, which leads us to obtain 36 newly selected lens candidates, which are awaiting spectroscopic confirmation. These findings show that automated SED modeling and deep learning pipelines, supported by modest human input, are a promising route for detecting strong lenses from large catalogs, which can overcome the veto limitations of primarily dropout-based SED selection approaches.

High-redshift galaxies↗

DOE OSTI2025

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations This dataset contains model projections of new data center facilities in the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2035 using the CERF – Data Centers model. Data center locations are modeled across four data center electricity demand growth scenarios (low, moderate, high, higher) and five market gravity scenarios (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%). Projected locations are intended to be regional representations of feasible siting locations in the future to assess potential grid and water stress impacts. The data center load growth scenarios correspond with the rates outlined in EPRI (2024) and include 3.71%, 5%, 10%, and 15% annual growth of electricity demand for data centers from 2023 values in 37 states across the CONUS. Market gravity scenarios correspond to the relative importance of proximity to data center markets or high population areas compared to locational cost in the siting algorithm. 0% market gravity means that siting decisions were entirely determined by the locational cost in each feasible location. 100% market gravity means that only market proximity was considered when siting. Other scenarios have weight placed on both components where total weight always equals 100%. Locational cost is dependent on facility cooling type and corresponding electricity cost, taxes, and other factors. Facility cooling type is spatially determined where high water stress and/or areas with high summer wet bulb temperatures are assumed to operate with mechanical cooling for a higher fraction of the year rather than evaporative cooling. Feasible data center siting areas are based on geospatial suitability raster data developed with open-source information. The following areas are excluded from siting: Areas within 300 m of a federal airport runway Waterbodies Areas with slope >16% Areas susceptible to sinkholes High coastal or inland flood risk areas Local, state, and federal parks, leisure areas, and cemeteries Areas >2 km away from electric substations Areas >5 km away from a municipal water supplier service area Areas >2 km away from high-speed fiber provider service territory Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US) areas Railroads, major roadways, and minor roadways Military areas and training grounds NLCD developed lands Areas >0.8 km (0.5 miles) from NLCD developed lands Because we use open-source information, proprietary information that can influence siting decisions such as individual tax agreements with cities, detailed fiber line connectivity, electric grid power capacity agreements, and others, are not currently accounted for in the modeling process. Using specific building locations and footprints in the dataset for local planning purposes is not advised. Technical Information Geospatial data is provided in geojson format using the Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) coordinate reference system. The datasets contain the following parameters: id - unique identification number within given scenario file growth_scenario – data center demand growth scenario market_gravity_weight – market gravity weight scenario (%) region – name of region (i.e., US State) total_cost_million_usd – locational siting cost ($million) campus_size_square_ft – total land acquired for data center facility (square ft) data_center_it_power_mw – IT power of data center facility (MW) mechanical_cooling_frac – fraction of year when data center uses mechanical cooling system water_cooling_frac– fraction of year when data center uses evaporative cooling system cooling_energy_demand_mwh – total annual facility energy demand for cooling (MWh) cooling_water_demand_mgy – total annual facility water demand for cooling (MG) cooling_water_consumption_mgy – total annual facility water consumed (MG) normalized_locational_cost – normalized total locational cost score for location normalized_gravity_score – normalized market gravity score for location weighted_siting_score – total weighted siting score of locational cost and gravity score geometry – polygon geometry of facility Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4.0 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗

DOE OSTI2026

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations This dataset contains model projections of new data center facilities in the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2035 using the CERF – Data Centers model. Data center locations are modeled across four data center electricity demand growth scenarios (low, moderate, high, higher) and five market gravity scenarios (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%). Projected locations are intended to be regional representations of feasible siting locations in the future to assess potential grid and water stress impacts. The data center load growth scenarios correspond with the rates outlined in EPRI (2024) and include 3.71%, 5%, 10%, and 15% annual growth of electricity demand for data centers from 2023 values in 37 states across the CONUS. Market gravity scenarios correspond to the relative importance of proximity to data center markets or high population areas compared to locational cost in the siting algorithm. 0% market gravity means that siting decisions were entirely determined by the locational cost in each feasible location. 100% market gravity means that only market proximity was considered when siting. Other scenarios have weight placed on both components where total weight always equals 100%. Locational cost is dependent on facility cooling type and corresponding electricity cost, taxes, and other factors. Facility cooling type is spatially determined where high water stress and/or areas with high summer wet bulb temperatures are assumed to operate with mechanical cooling for a higher fraction of the year rather than evaporative cooling. Feasible data center siting areas are based on geospatial suitability raster data developed with open-source information. The following areas are excluded from siting: Areas within 300 m of a federal airport runway or within an airport area boundary Waterbodies Areas with slope >16% Areas susceptible to sinkholes High coastal or inland flood risk areas Local, state, and federal parks, leisure areas, and cemeteries Areas >2 km away from electric substations Areas >5 km away from a municipal water supplier service area Areas >2 km away from high-speed fiber provider service territory USGS Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US) GAP status 1, 2, or 3 areas US National Parks Wetlands USFWS critical habitats BIA land areas Railroads, major roadways, and minor roadways Military areas and training grounds NLCD developed lands Areas >0.8 km (0.5 miles) from NLCD developed lands Because we use open-source information, proprietary information that can influence siting decisions such as individual tax agreements with cities, detailed fiber line connectivity, electric grid power capacity agreements, and others, are not currently accounted for in the modeling process. Using specific building locations and footprints in the dataset for local planning purposes is not advised. Technical Information Geospatial data is provided in geojson format using the Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) coordinate reference system. The datasets contain the following parameters: id - unique identification number within given scenario file growth_scenario – data center demand growth scenario market_gravity_weight – market gravity weight scenario (%) region – name of region (i.e., US State) total_cost_million_usd – locational siting cost ($million) campus_size_square_ft – total land acquired for data center facility (square ft) data_center_it_power_mw – IT power of data center facility (MW) mechanical_cooling_frac – fraction of year when data center uses mechanical cooling system water_cooling_frac– fraction of year when data center uses evaporative cooling system cooling_energy_demand_mwh – total annual facility energy demand for cooling (MWh) cooling_water_demand_mgy – total annual facility water demand for cooling (MG) cooling_water_consumption_mgy – total annual facility water consumed (MG) normalized_locational_cost – normalized total locational cost score for location normalized_gravity_score – normalized market gravity score for location weighted_siting_score – total weighted siting score of locational cost and gravity score geometry – polygon geometry of facility Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4.0 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Transductive Graph Neural Network learning for Grid Resilience Analysis

Power grids are critical infrastructures that require robust resilience analysis to ensure reliable and uninterrupted electricity supply. Traditional simulation-based methods for grid resilience analysis suffer from computational complexity and limited ability to capture the full spectrum of potential disruptions. This paper presents a novel approach to enhance grid resilience by leveraging transductive graph neural network (GNN) learning to identify critical nodes and links. By leveraging the graph structure and system features, GNNs effectively learn resilience metrics and accurately identify critical nodes based on actual grid operational behavior. The efficacy of the proposed approach is demonstrated through case studies on node criticality scoring and critical node/line identification in cascading outage scenarios. The results highlight the advantages of learning-based methods over traditional simulation-based approaches and their potential to revolutionize grid resilience analysis. The contributions of this paper include a graph-based scalable approach for fast cascading analysis, an inductive formulation for training GNN models, and a transfer learning-based approach to scale the model to largescale power systems.

grid resilience, graph neural networks, transducti↗

DOE OSTI2023

Neglecting Model Parametric Uncertainty Can Drastically Underestimate Flood Risks

Abstract Floods drive dynamic and deeply uncertain risks for people and infrastructures. Uncertainty characterization is a crucial step in improving the predictive understanding of multi‐sector dynamics and the design of risk‐management strategies. Current approaches to estimate flood hazards often sample only a relatively small subset of the known unknowns, for example, the uncertainties surrounding the model parameters. This approach neglects the impacts of key uncertainties on hazards and system dynamics. Here we mainstream a recently developed method for Bayesian inference to calibrate a computationally expensive distributed hydrologic model. We compare three different calibration approaches: (a) stepwise line search, (b) precalibration or screening, and (c) the Fast Model Calibrations (FaMoS) approach. FaMoS deploys a particle‐based approach that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high‐performance computing systems. We quantify how neglecting parametric uncertainty and data discrepancy can drastically underestimate extreme flood events and risks. Precalibration improves prediction skill score over a stepwise line search. The Bayesian calibration improves the uncertainty characterization of model parameters and flood risk projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Applications of Fuzzy Logic for Tritium Sensing Technology

Fuzzy Logic is a mathematical method that can represent human-like decisions by analyzing vagueness. The project is a practical approach for evaluating sensors using a fuzzy group best-worst method. Results What is the best sensor? The fuzzy logic methods give an answer to that through a selection system. The relationship between the inputs and the outputs gives consumers an understanding of how the best sensor was found through a scoring of each quality/criteria and their corresponding sub-criteria through expert opinion.

Holman, Allyson↗

DOE OSTI2022

Materials Scorecards, Phase 2: Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technology

This report presents updated material score cards with detailed justification of the proposed rating provided and quantifies the readiness of the advanced manufacturing of materials for nuclear applications. Based on an expanded literature review of available data, the scores in this report (Phase 2) have either been modified or remained constant as compared with Phase 1 scoring. The rating justification are provided for each scoring criteria whereas the maturity quantification of additively manufactured alloys and the knowledge gaps are discussed with reference traceability. This report focuses on the detailed justification and traceability for the adoption of additively manufactured 316SS, SS304, Alloy 800H, Graphite C/C, Alloy N, Silicon Carbide, HT9, Alloy 617, and Alloy 718. Significant variability in data and knowledge gaps exist among the identified materials. The scorecards are therefore based on published literature data, industry response to a survey, stakeholder input collected at workshops, and expert opinion. The interpretation and assessment were somewhat challenged as experimental process parameters and methodology varied and best judgment was exercised for score quantification. This assessment reflects the overall level of technical maturity for AM materials and their deployment in Gen-VI nuclear systems. These Phase 2 scorecards are likely to be revised based on additional input from stakeholders and as new research results become available.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Performance Comparison of Clipping Detection Techniques in AC Power Time Series: Preprint

In this research, a variety of methods were developed to detect clipping periods in AC power time series. Novel logic-based and machine learning (ML) approaches were developed to classify time series values as clipping or non-clipping. These approaches were compared to the RdTools method for detecting clipping periods. The logic-based and ML XGBoost approaches achieved F-scores of 82.6 and 74.4, respectively, as compared to the current RdTools approach (F-score of 56.4), indicating a significant improvement at detecting clipping periods. Additionally, the effects of using more accurate clipping filters when evaluating system degradation rates will be assessed in our final manuscript.

clipping↗

DOE OSTI2025

Generative learning for slow manifolds and bifurcation diagrams

In dynamical systems characterized by separation of time scales, the approximation of so called “slow manifolds”, on which the long term dynamics lie, is a useful step for model reduction. Initializing on such slow manifolds is a useful step in modeling, since it circumvents fast transients, and is crucial in multiscale algorithms (like the equation-free approach) alternating between fine scale (fast) and coarser scale (slow) simulations. In a similar spirit, when one studies the infinite time dynamics of systems depending on parameters, the system attractors (e.g., its steady states) lie on bifurcation diagrams (curves for one-parameter continuation, and more generally, on manifolds in state parameter space. Sampling these manifolds gives us representative attractors (here, steady states of ODEs or PDEs) at different parameter values. Algorithms for the systematic construction of these manifolds (slow manifolds, bifurcation diagrams) are required parts of the “traditional” numerical nonlinear dynamics toolkit. In more recent years, as the field of Machine Learning develops, conditional score-based generative models (cSGMs) have been demonstrated to exhibit remarkable capabilities in generating plausible data from target distributions that are conditioned on some given label. It is tempting to exploit such generative models to produce samples of data distributions (points on a slow manifold, steady states on a bifurcation surface) conditioned on (consistent with) some quantity of interest (QoI, observable). In this work, we present a framework for using cSGMs to quickly (a) initialize on a low-dimensional (reduced-order) slow manifold of a multi-time-scale system consistent with desired value(s) of a QoI (a “label”) on the manifold, and (b) approximate steady states in a bifurcation diagram consistent with a (new, out-of-sample) parameter value. This conditional sampling can help uncover the geometry of the reduced slow-manifold and/or approximately “fill in” missing segments of steady states in a bifurcation diagram. Finally, the quantity of interest, which determines how the sampling is conditioned, is either known a priori or identified using manifold learning-based dimensionality reduction techniques applied to the training data.

Dynamical systems↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Application of a Genetic Algorithm to the Optimization of a Mesoscale Model for Emergency Response

Besides solving the equations of momentum, heat, and moisture transport on the model grid, mesoscale weather models must account for subgrid-scale processes that affect the resolved model variables. These are simulated with model parameterizations, which often rely on values preset by the user. Such “free” model parameters, along with others set to initialize the model, are often poorly constrained, requiring that a user select each from a range of plausible values. Finding the values to optimize any forecasting tool can be accomplished with a search algorithm, and one such process—the genetic algorithm (GA)—has become especially popular. As applied to modeling, GAs represent a Darwinian process: an ensemble of simulations is run with a different set of parameter values for each member, and the members subsequently judged to be most accurate are selected as “parents” who pass their parameters onto a new generation. At the U.S. Department of Energy’s Savannah River Site in South Carolina, we are applying a GA to the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale weather model, which supplies input to a model to simulate the dispersion of an airborne contaminant as part of the site’s emergency response preparations. An ensemble of forecasts is run each day, weather data are used to “score” the individual members of the ensemble, and the parameters from the best members are used for the next day’s forecasts. As meteorological conditions change, the parameters change as well, maintaining a model configuration that is best adapted to atmospheric conditions. Significance Statement We wanted to develop a forecasting system by which a weather model is run over the Savannah River Site each day and repeatedly adjusted according to how well it performed the previous day. To run the model, a series of values (parameters) must be set to control how the model will calculate winds, temperatures, and other desired variables. Each day the model was run several times using different combinations of these parameters and later compared with observed meteorological conditions. Parameters that produced the most accurate forecasts were preferentially reused to create the forecasts for the next day. The process was tested for the summer of 2020 and exhibited lower errors than forecasts produced by the model using default values of the parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Developing Technology Performance Level Assessments for Early-Stage Wave Energy Converter Technologies: Preprint

The advantage of using Technology Performance Level (TPL) in conjunction with Technology Readiness Level (TRL) assessments in guiding technology development trajectories to successful outcomes in less time, at less overall cost, and with less encountered risk has been well articulated in the literature. In partnership with industry and international collaborators, a TPL assessment methodology for grid-connected applications has been developed through the application of the systems engineering approach. Metrics under seven different categories have been developed, weighted based on their relative relevance, and combined to yield a composite score. The methodology has been implemented in a spreadsheet tool plus a web application specifically aimed at assessing early stage (TRL 1-3) concepts. The target use cases are (a) technology developers improving their design, to find fatal flaws early, to get feedback on current design, to identify areas of improvement that will yield the highest return on investment, (b) reviewers assessing technologies in competitions or for making funding decisions, (c) investor or project developer doing due diligence, (d) policy makers landscaping the technology domain for formulating R&D strategy. The methodology and the tools are undergoing continuous improvement based on the experience and lessons learnt from applying it to internal and external marine energy technology development projects. The methodology is also being adapted for assessing WECs servicing markets outside the continental grid - broadly categorized as Powering the Blue Economy (PBE) applications. Such applications have vastly different functional requirements entailing a modification of the methodology to account for their higher risk tolerance, reduced price sensitivities, lower power needs, different permitting protocols, etc. This paper presents the latest status of the TPL assessment methodology and tools, describes its adaptation to select PBE markets, and explores its extension to other domains where it could provide a comprehensive and holistic measure of a nascent or disruptive technology's technoeconomic performance potential.

metrics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Developing Technology Performance Level Assessments for Early-Stage Wave Energy Converter Technologies

metrics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Frequency Event Categorization in Power Distribution Systems Using Micro PMU Measurements

Frequency is an important metric for power stability. To enhance the situational awareness in power distribution systems, this article proposes a data-driven approach that utilizes the data from micro phasor measurement units (μPMU) to categorize frequency events observed in distribution feeders. The proposed approach has three layers, each of which analyzes if a frequency event is propagated from the transmission system, formed inside a distribution feeder or falsely produced by instantaneous frequency (IF) estimation algorithms, respectively. In the first layer, the Granger causality is utilized to compare the causal relations from measurements across different locations to decide if an event is propagated from the transmission side. In the second layer, a trained sparse coding dictionary is utilized to unmix the physical causes of a frequency event. In the third layer, a moving z-score based event-pair detector is applied to identify if a frequency event is algorithm-induced. The proposed approach is tested using the μPMU measurements collected from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and Riverside Public Utility (RPU).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗