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NASA's Earth Science Flight Program Meets the Challenges of Today and Tomorrow

NASA's Earth science flight program is a dynamic undertaking that consists of a large fleet of operating satellites, an array of satellite and instrument projects in various stages of development, a robust airborne science program, and a massive data archiving and distribution system. Each element of the flight program is complex and present unique challenges. NASA builds upon its successes and learns from its setbacks to manage this evolving portfolio to meet NASA's Earth science objectives. NASA fleet of 16 operating missions provide a wide range of scientific measurements made from dedicated Earth science satellites and from instruments mounted to the International Space Station. For operational missions, the program must address issues such as an aging satellites operating well beyond their prime mission, constellation flying, and collision avoidance with other spacecraft and orbital debris. Projects in development are divided into two broad categories: systematic missions and pathfinders. The Earth Systematic Missions (ESM) include a broad range of multi-disciplinary Earth-observing research satellite missions aimed at understanding the Earth system and its response to natural and human-induced forces and changes. Understanding these forces will help determine how to predict future changes, and how to mitigate or adapt to these changes. The Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) program provides frequent, regular, competitively selected Earth science research opportunities that accommodate new and emerging scientific priorities and measurement capabilities. This results in a series of relatively low-cost, small-sized investigations and missions. Principal investigators whose scientific objectives support a variety of studies lead these missions, including studies of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, polar ice regions, or solid Earth. This portfolio of missions and investigations provides opportunity for investment in innovative Earth science that enhances NASA's capability for better understanding the current state of the Earth system. ESM and ESSP projects often involve partnerships with other US agencies and/or international organizations. This adds to the complexity of mission development, but allows for a greater scientific return on NASA's investments. The Earth Science Airborne Science Program provides manned and unmanned aircraft systems that further science and advance the use of satellite data. NASA uses these assets worldwide in campaigns to investigate extreme weather events, observe Earth system processes, obtain data for Earth science modeling activities, and calibrate instruments flying aboard Earth science spacecraft. The Airborne Science Program has six dedicated aircraft and access to many other platforms. The Earth Science Multi-Mission Operations program acquires, preserves, and distributes observational data from operating spacecraft to support Earth Science research focus areas. The Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS), which has been in operations since 1994, primarily accomplishes this. EOSDIS acquires, processes, archives, and distributes Earth Science data and information products. The archiving of NASA Earth Science information happens at eight Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs) and four disciplinary data centers located across the United States. The DAACs specialize by topic area, and make their data available to researchers around the world. The DAACs currently house over 9 petabytes of data, growing at a rate of 6.4 terabytes per day. NASA's current Earth Science portfolio is responsive to the National Research Council (NRC) 2007 Earth Science Decadal Survey and well as the 2010 NASA Response to President Obama's Climate Plan. As the program evolves into the future it will leverage the lessons learned from the current missions in operations and development, and plan for adjustments to future objectives in response to the anticipated 2017 NRC Decadal Survey.

Flight Program↗

Holodeck Testbed Project

The main objective of the Holodeck Testbed is to create a cost effective, realistic, and highly immersive environment that can be used to train astronauts, carry out engineering analysis, develop procedures, and support various operations tasks. Currently, the Holodeck testbed allows to step into a simulated ISS (International Space Station) and interact with objects; as well as, perform Extra Vehicular Activities (EVA) on the surface of the Moon or Mars. The Holodeck Testbed is using the products being developed in the Hybrid Reality Lab (HRL). The HRL is combining technologies related to merging physical models with photo-realistic visuals to create a realistic and highly immersive environment. The lab also investigates technologies and concepts that are needed to allow it to be integrated with other testbeds; such as, the gravity offload capability provided by the Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS). My main two duties were to develop and animate models for use in the HRL environments and work on a new way to interface with computers using Brain Computer Interface (BCI) technology. On my first task, I was able to create precise computer virtual tool models (accurate down to the thousandths or hundredths of an inch). To make these tools even more realistic, I produced animations for these tools so they would have the same mechanical features as the tools in real life. The computer models were also used to create 3D printed replicas that will be outfitted with tracking sensors. The sensor will allow the 3D printed models to align precisely with the computer models in the physical world and provide people with haptic/tactile feedback while wearing a VR (Virtual Reality) headset and interacting with the tools. Getting close to the end of my internship the lab bought a professional grade 3D Scanner. With this, I was able to replicate more intricate tools at a much more time-effective rate. The second task was to investigate the use of BCI to control objects inside the hybrid reality ISS environment. This task looked at using an Electroencephalogram (EEG) headset to collect brain state data that could be mapped to commands that a computer could execute. On this Task, I had a setback with the hardware, which stopped working and was returned to the vendor for repair. However, I was still able to collect some data, was able to process it, and started to create correlation algorithms between the electrical patterns in the brain and the commands we wanted the computer to carry out. I also carried out a test to investigate the comfort of the headset if it is worn for a long time. The knowledge gained will benefit me in my future career. I learned how to use various modeling and programming tools that included Blender, Maya, Substance Painter, Artec Studio, Github, and Unreal Engine 4. I learned how to use a professional grade 3D scanner and 3D printer. On the BCI Project I learned about data mining and how to create correlation algorithms. I also supported various demos including a live demo of the hybrid reality lab capabilities at ComicPalooza. This internship has given me a good look into engineering at NASA. I developed a more thorough understanding of engineering and my overall confidence has grown. I have also realized that any problem can be fixed, if you try hard enough, and as an engineer it is your job to not only fix problems but to embrace coming up with solutions to those problems.

Arias, Adriel↗

Cleanroom Contamination Identification Method Development

During fabrication, assembly, and testing of spacecraft and flight hardware it is vital to avoid contaminants that can cause degradation and could result in significant failure. Yet, there is no existing contamination monitoring method that provides the identity of airborne particles in a cleanroom facility. Knowing the particle identities, would allow scientists and engineers to determine the source of the contaminants and prevent setbacks before they occur or cause damage. Current cleanliness monitoring methods include airborne particle counters (APCs), fallout filters, and visual inspections. Particle counts from APCs are the primary metric used to define a cleanroom class and hence its level of cleanliness, but do not provide identification nor can they differentiate between large and small sizes of particles. In addition, using fallout filters is not a proactive, timely, or representative approach to cleanroom contamination monitoring because these samples are only retrieved after 30 days and are placed away from spacecraft processing to avoid interference with operations. In contrast, the forced air sampling method can collect a sample within an hour at any location required and provide results in less than a day. This system uses a cassette and filter sample medium to capture airborne particles which are then taken to a scanning electron microscope with energy dispersive spectroscopy (SEM/EDS) to identify and size the captured particles. Development of forced air sampling into an established laboratory capability will allow for fast sampling and routine identification of unknown contamination sources within the cleanroom. The test method development required market research for an air sampling cassette that increases sample collection efficiency and a filter with low enough background contamination to allow differentiation between a blank (control) and the collected sample. It was determined that a conductive black cassette and a polycarbonate filter were the best options. Conductive black cassettes, in comparison to the standard styrene, are manufactured using polypropylene filled with carbon. This makes the cassette conductive and minimizes the tendency of particles to stick to the wall of the cassette due to electrostatic force. In previous trials a mixed cellulose ester (MCE) filter was used to capture the contaminants, however the rougher surface of the filter contributed to entrapment of the particles within the filter structure and made it harder to identify the particles. In comparison, track etched polycarbonate filters have random cylindrical pores and a smooth surface which contributes to uniform sample distribution on the surface of the filter. Future work includes: testing the system using control samples to determine the efficiency and suitability of the medium, performing sample collection in various environments to establish ideal operating parameters and analyzing contaminant particles using SEM/EDS and assistant characterization techniques. Once fully developed, employing the forced air sampling method will help to prevent damage to spacecraft, avoid schedule delays, and allow for mission success.

Hernandez Melendez, Jailyn M.↗

Verification and Validation of Elastodynamic Simulation Software for Aerospace Research

Physics-based simulation of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) inspection can help to advance the inspectability and reliability of mechanical systems. However, NDE simulations applicable to non-idealized mechanical components often require large compute domains and long run times. This has prompted development of custom NDE simulation software tailored to high performance computing (HPC) hardware. Verification and validation (V&V) is an integral part of developing this software to ensure implementations are robust and applicable to inspection problems, producing tools and simulations suitable for computational NDE research. This presentation addresses factors common to V&V of several elastodynamic simulation codes applicable to ultrasonic NDE. Examples are drawn from in-house simulation software at NASA Langley Research Center, ranging from ensuring reliability in a 1D heterogeneous media wave equation solver to the V&V needs of 3D cluster-parallel elastodynamic software. Factors specific to a research environment are addressed, where individual simulation results can be as relevant as the software product itself. Distinct facets of V&V are discussed including testing to establish software reliability, employing systematic approaches for consistency with fundamental conservation laws, establishing the numerical stability of algorithms, and demonstrating concurrence with empirical data. This talk also addresses V&V practices for small groups of researchers. This includes establishing resources (e.g. time and personnel) for V&V during project planning to mitigate and control the risk of setbacks. Similarly, we identify ways for individual researchers to use V&V during simulation software development itself to both speed up the development process and reduce incurred technical debt.

NDE↗

Developing and Validating Measurement Scales During Pandemic Conditions: A Case Study with the Scale for Habitat Usability

At NASA, habitat evaluations often employ subjective measures. Some measures are frequently used, well established tools, whereas others are homegrown measures tailored to specific projects. The variety of measures used makes evaluation comparisons across projects difficult. Additionally, some of these measures are burdensome, may be too specialized, or may require an expert to use and interpret, limiting their utility. Taken together, these drawbacks suggest the need for a new measurement tool. To that purpose, a team at NASA worked on developing a new scale for measuring habitat usability, the Scale for Habitat Usability (SHU). The SHU is intended to be a quick, multi-faceted measure for evaluating habitat usability across the development lifecycle. However, like many research projects, the development of the SHU faced setbacks due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Pandemic prevention protocols precluded in-person data collection, forcing the team to take some non-traditional approaches to scale development. This paper reports the steps the team took to complete the project.

Ian Robertson↗

Model Validation and its Crucial Roles in Connecting Space Weather Research, Operations, and End-User Needs

Model validation is indispensable to transitioning a model from research to operations. In this presentation, we focus on the performance of models for specific operational purposes/user needs, which include careful selection of the corresponding specific Essential Space Environment Quantity (ESEQ) and a proper set of metrics. Initial results of our community-wide validation efforts under the COSPAR ISWAT Initiative with relevance to surface charging and internal charging will be shown. We will highlight processes involved in performing such tasks, such as setting up unified guidelines, data preparation, assessment using different metrics, etc. We will also present setbacks and challenges associated with such efforts so further progress can be made.

Yihua Zheng↗

On the Current State of Sheaf Theoretic Networking

Advancing the Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN) effort has proven to be a unique and difficult challenge. In the journey to implementing space networking, NASA has considered several strategies. From direct translations of Internet Protocol (IP) to satellite networks to pre-planned routing structures in Contact Graph Routing (CGR), each potential solution for DTN has come with its fair share of setbacks and challenges. Frequently, these challenges can be traced back to specific assumptions made in the development of each protocol that do not carry over from ground networks to space networks. To address these fundamental assumptions, a more general and foundational networking theory is required. In this paper, we survey a novel mathematical foundation for networking using the theory of cellular sheaves. Sheaves form a mathematical tool for modeling local phenomenon that leads to global effects. Sheaves have been introduced a number of times, and our goal here is to summarize the applications and point towards important future work that must be done to build a stronger, cohesive theory for networking.

Sheaves↗

Utilizing Earth Observations to Model Probable Coastal Wetland Extent, Sea-Level Rise Inundation Risk, and Assess Impacts on Historic Hawaiian Lands

Climate induced sea-level rise poses a risk to coastal areas on the Island of Hawai’i, and many of the island’s historic cultural lands are in danger of becoming overtaken by wetlands or inundation. In partnership with the County of Hawai’i, State of Hawai’i Department of Land and Natural Resources, and Arizona State University, NASA DEVELOP mapped wetland extent and short-term sea-level rise inundation risk. We utilized Earth observations over a 10-year span (2013 – 2022) that included the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies and MEaSUREs Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature datasets, United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hawaii Digital Elevation Models (DEM), and in situ tidal gauge data. Flood risk index values were acquired for 5 known Hawai’i flood events between 2019 – 2021 from the Global Flood Mapper tool on Google Earth Engine. We used a random forest model to predict short-term sea-level rise inundation risk along the entire coast of Hawai’i. Current wetland extents and probabilistic locations of new wetlands were modeled with the most recently available data from PlanetScope Surface Reflectance optical imagery (2022), USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) 10m DEM (2020), temperature and precipitation data from the Hawai’i Climate Atlas, and soils data from the Hawai’i Soil Atlas (2014) using the Wetland Intrinsic Potential tool. Results indicated locations that had the highest probability of wetland creation. The end products aimed to help the partners prioritize efforts to meeting regulation requirements for wetlands protection, evaluate the inundation risk to historical features, and support decision-making for their Shoreline Setback and Climate Adaption plans.

Lisa Tanh↗

Space Crop Production and Interdisciplinary Teamwork

As astronauts venture farther from Earth, and stay for longer periods, the space food system will increase in importance. Crop production can supplement a packaged diet to provide additional nutrients and dietary variety for astronauts. Several unique challenges exist for growth of plants in microgravity and on other planetary surfaces and solving these requires skills and abilities from different fields as diverse as microgravity fluid physics to human behavioral and psychological health. Research on the ground and tests with the Veggie and Advanced Plant Habitat chambers on the International Space Station are allowing us to understand the impacts of gravity and spaceflight on hardware, crop growth, nutritional content, food acceptability, and the importance of plants to astronauts living and working away from our blue home planet. Working through setbacks with interdisciplinary teams is critical to make progress in this challenging applied science area.

Gioia Donna Massa↗

Space Crop Production and Interdisciplinary Teamwork

As astronauts venture farther from Earth, and stay for longer periods, the space food system will increase in importance. Crop production can supplement a packaged diet to provide additional nutrients and dietary variety for astronauts. Several unique challenges exist for growth of plants in microgravity and on other planetary surfaces and solving these requires skills and abilities from different fields as diverse as microgravity fluid physics to human behavioral and psychological health. Research on the ground and tests with the Veggie and Advanced Plant Habitat chambers on the International Space Station are allowing us to understand the impacts of gravity and spaceflight on hardware, crop growth, nutritional content, food acceptability, and the importance of plants to astronauts living and working away from our blue home planet. Working through setbacks with interdisciplinary teams is critical to make progress in this challenging applied science area.

Gioia Massa↗

Wabash CarbonSAFE Subtask 4.1 - Application of Policy Frameworks for Improved Carbon Capture and Storage Social Site Characterization & Stakeholder Engagement

Anthropogenic climate change threatens environmental and human health globally. Limiting these threats requires large-scale and innovative greenhouse gas mitigation responses across carbon-intensive energy and industrial sectors. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies present potential opportunities for mitigating climate change while maintaining a diverse energy resource portfolio. Successful development of CCS physical sites requires effective and efficient project management solutions that elicit and incorporate the concerns and perspectives of diverse stakeholders. Due to the urgency of climate change mitigation technology implementation and the costs of CCS development, CCS project developers cannot risk setbacks by poor stakeholder assessment that concern management processes. Thus, this report presents four prominent policy frameworks and associated case studies as opportunities to improve CCS social site characterization and stakeholder engagement. After comparing the relative effectiveness and efficiencies of each framework with regard to CCS, this report concludes that the Advocacy Coalition Framework, Narrative Policy Framework, and Policy Conflict Framework can improve the CCS social site characterization process, while the Collaborative Governance Framework paired with the Q-Methodology provides an ideal framework for direct stakeholder engagement. Overall, this report finds that the Narrative Policy Framework and the Collaborative Governance Framework are most ideally suited for the purposes of CCS social site characterization and stakeholder engagement.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Can We Fix It Automatically? Development of Fault Auto-Correction Algorithms for HVAC and Lighting Systems

A fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) tool is a type of energy management and information system designed to continuously identify the presence of faults and efficiency improvement opportunities through a one-way interface to the building automation system and application of automated analytics. Building owners and operators at the leading edge of technology adoption are using FDD tools to enable average whole-building portfolio savings of 8 percent. Although FDD tools can inform building operators of operational faults, currently a manual action is always required to correct faults and generate the associated energy savings. A subset of faults, however, such as biased sensors and manual override, can be addressed automatically, removing the need for operations and maintenance staff intervention. Automating this fault “correction” can significantly increase the savings generated by FDD tools and reduce the reliance on human intervention. Doing so is expected to advance the usability, as well as the technical and economic performance, of FDD technologies. In this paper, we present the development of 10 innovative fault auto-correction algorithms for HVAC and lighting systems. When the auto-correction routine is triggered, it will overwrite the control setpoints or other variables (via BACnet or other protocol) to implement the intended changes. These algorithms are able to automatically correct the faults or improve the operation associated with an incorrectly programmed schedule, override manual control, sensor bias, control hunting, rogue zone, and less aggressive setpoints/setpoints setback. The paper will also discuss the implementation of the auto-correction algorithms in FDD software products.

Lin, Guanjing↗

Hydrogen Component Leak Rate Quantification for System Risk and Reliability Assessment through QRA and PHM Frameworks: Preprint

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) Hydrogen Safety Research and Development (HSR&D) program in collaboration with the University of Maryland's Systems Risk and Reliability Analysis Laboratory (SyRRA) are working to improve reliability and reduce risk in hydrogen systems. This approach strives to use quantitative data on component leaks and failures, together with Prognosis and Health Management (PHM), and Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) to identify at-risk components, reduce component failures and downtime, and predict when components require maintenance. Hydrogen component failures increase facility maintenance cost, facility downtime, and reduce public acceptance of hydrogen technologies, ultimately increasing facility size and cost because of potentially overly conservative requirements. Leaks are a predominant failure mode for hydrogen components. However, uncertainties in the amount of hydrogen emitted from leaking components and the frequency of those failure events limit the understanding of the risks that they present under real-world operational conditions. NREL has deployed a test fixture, the Leak Rate Quantification Apparatus (LRQA), to quantify the mass flow rate of leaking gases from medium and high-pressure components that have failed while in service. Quantitative hydrogen leak rate data from this system could ultimately be used to better inform risk assessment and Regulation Codes and Standards (RCS). Parallel activity explores the use of PHM and QRA techniques to assess and reduce risk, thereby improving safety and reliability of hydrogen systems. The results of QRAs could further provide a systematic and science-based foundation for the design and implementation of RCS, as in the latest versions of the NFPA 2 code for gaseous hydrogen stations. Alternatively, data-driven techniques of PHM could provide new damage diagnosis and health-state prognosis tools. This research will help end users, station owners and operators, and regulatory bodies move towards risk-informed preventative maintenance versus emergency corrective maintenance, reducing cost and improving reliability. Predictive modelling of failures could improve safety and affect RCS requirements such as setback distances at liquid refuelling sites. The combination of leak rate quantification research, PHM, and QRA can lead to better informed models enabling data-based decision to be made for hydrogen system safety improvements.

codes and standards↗

The NREL Sensor Laboratory: Status and Future Directions for Hydrogen Detection

The NREL Hydrogen Sensor Laboratory was commissioned in 2010 as a resource for the national and international hydrogen community to ensure the availability and proper use of hydrogen sensors. Since then, the Sensor Laboratory has provided unbiased verification of hydrogen sensor performance for sensor developers, end-users, and regulatory agencies and has also provided active support for numerous code and standards development organizations. Although sensor performance assessment remains a core capability, the mission of the NREL Sensor Laboratory has expanded toward a more holistic approach regarding the role of hydrogen detection and its implementation strategy for both assurance of facility safety as well as for process control applications. Active monitoring for detection of unintended releases has been identified by the NFPA 2 Storage Task Group as a viable approach for improving facility safety and lowering setbacks. The current research program for the Sensor Laboratory addresses both conventional and advanced developing detection strategies in response to the emerging large-scale markets, such as those envisioned by H2@Scale. These emerging hydrogen applications may require alternative detection strategies that supplement and may ultimately supplant the use of traditional sensors for monitoring hydrogen releases. Research focus areas for the NREL Sensor Laboratory now encompasses the characterization of released hydrogen behavior to optimize detection strategies for both indoor and outdoor applications, advanced methods of hydrogen leak detection such as hydrogen wide area monitoring approaches for large scale and distributed applications, the incorporation of active monitoring as a risk reduction strategy to improve safety at hydrogen facilities, and continuing support of hydrogen safety codes and standards. In addition to assurance of safety, detection will be critical for process control applications, such as hydrogen fuel quality verification for fuel cell vehicle applications and for monitoring and controlling of hydrogen-natural gas blend composition.

codes and standards↗

Sound at Scale: Characterizing Impacts of Noise Ordinances on the Onshore Wind Energy Technical Potential for the United States

Recent surveys have documented the rapid rise of sound ordinances across state and county jurisdictions, which has become crucial for wind energy siting. However, the lack of information on ordinances and computational challenges in turbine sound modeling create uncertainties regarding how evolving policies may affect resource potential and clean energy objectives. Therefore, we develop an approach to evaluate wind turbine sound profiles at millions of locations across the U.S. and translate them into setback distances for every residential structure. Compared to a baseline reference scenario, we find a 7% reduction in the national wind energy capacity potential when accounting for counties with existing sound ordinances. Additionally, when expanding the surveyed sound ordinances nationwide, we observe a potential loss of 53% of the national wind capacity under the most stringent ordinances, with a disproportionate share of this lost capacity coming from high-quality and low-cost wind resource. This work reveals that neglecting sound ordinances results in a significant overestimation of wind resource potential and highlights the important trade-offs between increased wind energy deployment to meet target decarbonization goals and the social/environmental impacts of this deployment that must be considered.

aeroacoustics↗

Capacity Density Considerations for Floating Offshore Wind Farms in Ultradeep Waters

Capacity density describes the concentration of wind energy development in an area and is often specified in terms of megawatts-per-square-kilometer (MW/km2). Understanding capacity density trends in wind energy projects helps to inform both energy system and spatial planning efforts. Borrman et al. (2018) and Mulas Hernando et al. (2023) analyze capacity density trends for fixed-bottom offshore wind farms in Europe and the United States, respectively, and Cooperman et al. (2022) explores how floating offshore wind mooring technology choices may impact wind plant layout through setbacks from lease area boundaries in waters up to 1,300 m deep. Technical challenges facing floating offshore wind development in ultradeep waters (beyond 1,300 m) could impact achievable capacity densities, with potential implications to marine spatial planning and project economics. When compared to fixed-bottom commercial-scale wind farms, mooring system footprints from floating offshore wind systems can constrain capacity density in some circumstances. In this study, we conduct an initial investigation of how taut mooring configurations may constrain floating offshore wind turbine placement and estimate capacity density for representative floating wind plants in generic lease areas. In addition, we explore floating wind plant capacity density drivers in ultradeep waters by characterizing area utilization for a range of lease area characteristics. This analysis highlights the primary challenges that floating offshore wind systems may encounter in achieving capacity densities comparable to commercial-scale fixed-bottom projects at ultradeep water depths, from a technical standpoint.

capacity density↗

Data-driven modeling of dynamic occupant thermostat override behavior for demand response applications

Buildings consume nearly 40% of global energy and produce similar emissions. Whiletechnological advances address efficiency, occupant behavior causes energy use variations up to 300% between identical buildings. This gap between predicted and actual building performance impacts building design, operations, and grid demand management programs. Through analyses of smart thermostat data from 1,400 single-occupant homes, the researchdemonstrates that occupants respond to 8°F thermostat setpoint changes within a median of 15 minutes, while 2°F changes trigger responses within a median of 30 minutes. This highlights an understudied temporal relationship between thermostat setbacks and response time of occupant behaviors. Models of such behavior dynamics are required to incorporate occupant impacts into building performance simulation. A key contribution of this dissertation is the Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), which positsthat thermal discomfort driven behaviors are caused by the time-accumulation of discomfort, not simply a temperature deviation threshold or a delay from an initiating event. Using a dataset of 634 thermostats, each with 25+ manual setpoint changes, a comparative analysis of TFT and comfort zone and a delayed response theories demonstrated that personalized TFT models better predict when manual setpoint change occur. This was measured by the area under the curve statistical measure (AUC); all three models perform similarly by a Matthews Correlation Coefficient measure. Higher AUC performance is especially important for modeling occupant behavior in demand response programs where false negatives of rare occupant interactions could adversely affect grid stability. EnergyPlus based simulations were conducted with TFT-derived occupant models, demonstrating the ability to identify parameters of known TFT models from only data observable with smart thermostats, even under the presence of noise from routine overrides. Overall, the dissertation highlights that thermostat interactions are neither static,instantaneous, nor driven solely by the environment. Instead, temporal accumulation of discomfort and routine-based behavior play important roles. The methodology and results offer a pathway towards more accurate modeling of human-building interactions for policy assessment, building design, and demand response programs.

Sharma, Kunind [Northeastern University] (ORCID:00↗

Impact analysis of personalized thermostat demand response

Demand response (DR) aims to curtail peak electric load to avoid running inefficient power plants, reduce costly transmission capacity increases, and improve grid reliability. One method of DR for residential settings involves the utility or third part remotely adjusting thermostat temperatures. Cooling setpoints may be increased 2°F – 6°F for hours, irrespective of occupant comfort. To maintain their comfort, occupants override these setpoint changes impacting the reliability of DR services provided to the grid. This paper presents a preliminary impact analysis of replacing the current DR approach of uniform thermostat setbacks for an entire population with personalized and context aware DR based on a dynamic model of occupant thermal comfort behavior. Over 151k interactions with ecobee thermostats are analyzed to predict the impact of such personalized DR on overrides, energy curtailment magnitude, and reliability.

Kane, Michael↗