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At least 127 records · Page 7

Snowmass2021 Computational Frontier White Paper: Cosmological Simulations and Modeling

Powerful new observational facilities will come online over the next decade, enabling a number of discovery opportunities in the "Cosmic Frontier", which targets understanding of the physics of the early universe, dark matter and dark energy, and cosmological probes of fundamental physics, such as neutrino masses and modifications of Einstein gravity. Synergies between different experiments will be leveraged to present new classes of cosmic probes as well as to minimize systematic biases present in individual surveys. Success of this observational program requires actively pairing it with a well-matched state-of-the-art simulation and modeling effort. Next-generation cosmological modeling will increasingly focus on physically rich simulations able to model outputs of sky surveys spanning multiple wavebands. These simulations will have unprecedented resolution, volume coverage, and must deliver guaranteed high-fidelity results for individual surveys as well as for the cross-correlations across different surveys. The needed advances are as follows: (1) Development of scientifically rich and broadly-scoped simulations, which capture the relevant physics and correlations between probes (2) Accurate translation of simulation results into realistic image or spectral data to be directly compared with observations (3) Improved emulators and/or data-driven methods serving as surrogates for expensive simulations, constructed from a finite set of full-physics simulations (4) Detailed and transparent verification and validation programs for both simulations and analysis tools. (Abridged)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Time-dependent density-functional theory study on nonlocal electron stopping for inertial confinement fusion

Understanding laser–target coupling is of the utmost importance for achieving high performance in laser-direct-drive (LDD) inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments. Thus, accurate modeling of electron transport and deposition through ICF-relevant materials and conditions is necessary to quantify the total thermal conduction and ablation. The stopping range is a key transport quantity used in thermal conduction models; in this work, we review the overall role that the electron mean free path (MFP) plays in thermal conduction and hydrodynamic simulations. The currently used modified Lee–More model employs various physics approximations. We discuss a recent model that uses time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) to eliminate these approximations in both the calculation of the electron stopping power and corresponding MFP in conduction zone polystyrene (CH) plasma. In general, the TD-DFT calculations showed a larger MFP (lower stopping power) than the standard modified Lee–More model. Using the TD-DFT results, an analytical model for the electron deposition range, λTD−DFT(ρ,T,K), was devised for CH plasmas between ρ=[0.05−1.05] g/cm3, kBT=[100−1000] eV. We implemented this model into LILAC, for simulations of a National Ignition Facility-scale LDD implosion and compared key physics quantities to ones obtained by simulations using the standard model. The implications of the obtained results and the path moving forward to calculate this same quantity in conduction-zone deuterium–tritium plasmas are further discussed, to hopefully close the understanding gap for laser target coupling in LDD-ICF simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

High-Fidelity Simulation of the Light-to-Dense Stratification Transient in the HiRJET Facility

Density stratification in a large enclosure is a crucial phenomenon to heat transfer and sustainable passive heat removal of a sodium fast reactor during reactivity transients. However, engineering turbulence models were identified to have unsatisfactory performance in predicting propagation of a stratified front. Yet, the scarcity of high-resolution data for stratification hampers the development of models. To explor e applications of leveraging direct numerical simulation (DNS) data to support turbulence model development, this work conducted DNS using NekRS to study a long stratification transient in the High-Resolution Jet (HiRJET) experimental facility. Here, this work considers an experiment run where light fluid is injected into a tank containing a denser fluid with a relative density difference of 1.5%. Formation of the stratified layer is identified as impingement of the buoyant jet promoting mixing of the two fluids. Based on the transient statistics, transport of the concentration can be characterized by regions with dominating effects of turbulent mixing, buoyant dissipation, and molecular diffusion, respectively, as moving away from the elevation of jet impingement. Concentration near the stratified front also exhibits oscillation at Brunt-Väisälä frequency. Preliminary validation of the simulation showed encouraging agreement of the concentration distribution with the reference experiment.

buoyant mixing↗

High yield polar direct drive fusion neutron sources at the National Ignition Facility

Polar direct drive neutron source experiments were performed at the National Ignition Facility showing substantial improvement in total neutron yield and efficiency of conversion of laser energy to fusion output. Plastic capsules 3–4 mm in diameter were filled with 1.5 mg/cc of deuterium–tritium (DT) fuel and imploded with laser beam pointing and defocus designed to compensate for polar asymmetry introduced by the facility beam entrance angles. Radiation-hydrodynamics simulations were employed to optimize the multi-dimensional laser and target parameter space, within facility and target fabrication constraints. Ensembles of 1D simulations tuned to match the outputs of early shots in the series were used to design subsequent shots in the series. This allowed the later shots to be designed based on empirically motivated sensitivities to laser and target input parameters, while eliminating the need to explicitly model phenomena such as hydrodynamic instabilities and nonlinear laser–plasma interactions. Additionally, one experiment with a 3.0 mm diameter CH capsule produced 13.6 kJ (4.81 × 10 15 DT neutrons) from a laser input below the NIF optics damage threshold at 585 kJ, 328 TW. Two experiments with 4.0 mm capsules produced 31.3 and 33.6 kJ of fusion output (1.11 × 10 16 and 1.19 × 10 16 DT neutrons) with 1.10 MJ, 390 TW and 1.26 MJ, 425 TW of laser input, respectively.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Physical Protection System Effectiveness for a Hypothetical Small Modular Reactor Facility: Systems Analysis and Considerations

This report will summarize the group's work to provide recommendations to secure nuclear facilities before, during and after an extreme weather event. Extreme weather events can have drastic impacts to nuclear facilities as seen by the earthquake and subsequent tsunami at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011. Recent hurricanes in the United States including Hurricane Harvey demonstrate the devastating effects these storms can have on infrastructure and the surrounding communities. The group is attempting to identify the gaps that potential small modular reactor (SMR) facilities will need to address in order to provide adequate site security before, during and after extreme weather events. This effort proceeded in three parts to provide insights and recommendations to secure Small Modular Reactor facilities for extreme weather events:(1) a literature review of academic articles as well as relevant documents including the existing regulatory framework and recommendations from the IAEA, NRC, and DOE, (2) subject matter expert interviews from a wide variety of security backgrounds, and (3) modeling and simulation on a hypothetical SMR facility. Special attention was paid to the interactions between stakeholders and nuclear facility design considerations, particularly the topics of safety and security. Engineering design issues from safety and security perspectives were discussed and included in simulation. Each step informed the proceeding, with the result including full tabletop scenarios of EWE impacts to security system effectiveness on the hypothetical model. This systems-level analysis provides results to inform recommendations to secure SMR facilities.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Simulation studies of the interaction of laser radiation with additively manufactured foams

The interaction of laser radiation with foams of various porosities and low densities has been the subject of several numerical and experimental studies. In all cases, the modeling of low-Z under-dense foams as uniform gases of equivalent average density using standard radiation-hydrodynamics codes has resulted in heat-front velocities that are considerably faster than those observed experimentally. It has been theoretically conjectured that this difference may be attributed to the breakdown of the foam’s morphology, leading to a dynamics of filament expansion where the ion and electron energy partitions are significantly different from those calculated using the uniform gas model. We found that 3D computer simulations employing a disconnected representation of the foam’s microstructure which allowed for the dynamics of foam element heating, expansion, and stagnation largely supported the theoretical picture. Simulations using this model for laser experiments on under-dense 2 mg cc -1 SiO 2 aerogel foams reproduced the experimental data fairly well. We used the validated model in simulations of low-density structured foam-like materials (produced via additive manufacturing) with a variety of morphologies. We found that the log-pile configurations were consistent with the analytical propagation model of Gus’kov et al. Further validation of the model was obtained by simulating experiments performed at the Jupiter Laser Facility using the log-pile and octet-truss foam morphologies. Simulations of the foam-laser interaction using a wave propagation code showed that the microstructure was able to enhance stimulated Brillouin scattering (SBS) by concentrating the light energy into density holes. In turn, this promotes laser filamentation, reducing SBS and bringing the predicted values closer to the experimental data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

FFA@CEBAF beam transport error and tolerance simulation studies

The Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) is a 12 GeV recirculating electron accelerator at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLAB). Major upgrades to the accelerator are being investigated which include a new 650 MeV injection beamline and state-of-the-art fixed-field alternating (FFA) gradient recirculation arcs. The upgrade will extend the energy of the electron beam to over 20 GeV. In this paper, we provide an error and tolerance simulation study of the amended beam optics transport of the existing accelerator tuned for 22 GeV operation. The study is conducted with the particle tracking codes elegant and Bmad in two parts. In the first part, we treat each section of the accelerator (electromagnetic arcs and linacs) modularly with ideal conditions at the beginning. The second part is a pseudo start-to-end (S2E) simulation with accumulated errors propagating from one beamline to the next.

Accelerator Physics↗

Simulations of neutron unbound physics for Geant4

The study of neutron unbound systems via the invariant mass technique is the primary focus of the MoNA Collaboration, which built and operates the Modular Neutron Array (MoNA) and the Large multi-Institutional Scintillator Array (LISA) at FRIB. Advancements in nuclear structure from theory and experiment along the neutron dripline have presented opportunities to understand the nature of unbound systems in higher mass nuclei. The GEometry ANd Tracking (Geant4) platform has been used in high-energy and nuclear physics to simulate particle interactions with as much detail as the user desires. Geant4 currently does not have a physics class to simulate neutron unbound systems. Given the advancement of accelerator facilities and active searches along the neutron dripline, detailed simulations to study the breakup of neutron unbound systems, are necessary. Furthermore, the implementation of the breakup of neutron unbound systems in Geant4 will be presented.

Neutron dripline↗

General overview of multiphysics modeling and simulation at CEA/DES/IRESNE supporting safety, operating and development of nuclear reactors and facilities

This paper presents a general overview of the innovative multiphysics research/development activities carried on by the CEA/DES/IRESNE institute. Eight main different multiphysics fields addressed by IRESNE have been listed (among others: fuel fabrication, behavior of fuels, of reactors, of corium, radionuclide transfer to environment,...) in relation with the involved coupled physics: neutron transport, fluid mechanics, electro-magnetism, heat transfer, solid mechanics and (physico-)chemistry. The major mission of IRESNE institute is to study current and future nuclear systems integrated into a low carbon energy system. To fulfill this mission, IRESNE's activities rely on the development and the implementation of multiphysics modeling, advanced coupling scheme, data transfer techniques and dedicated multiphysics experimentations. Indeed, such multiphysics simulation approach of nuclear systems is today required to deal with the complex intrinsic features of studied phenomena. This approach aims at taking into account physical phenomena interactions, at each interest modeling scale, in order to reach an accurate and predictive behavior representation of a system component or of the whole system. The final objective is to contribute to the development of digital reactor, core and fuel at CEA, by progressing on applied mathematics, high-performance computing and physical mechanism understanding.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Survival estimates across five life stages of redfin ( Perca fluviatilis ) exposed to simulated pumped-storage hydropower stressors

The global prevalence of pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) is expected to grow exponentially as countries transition to renewable energy sources. Compared to conventional hydropower, little is currently known regarding PSH impacts on aquatic biota. This study estimated the survival of five life stages (egg, two larval stages, juvenile and adult) of redfin (European) perch (Perca fluviatilis) following passage through a PSH facility during the pumping phase. This was achieved by simulating the individual stressors expected to occur during passage through a 2000-MW PSH facility using laboratory-simulated (shear strain and extreme compression) and modelling (blade strike, BS) approaches. Our results indicate that redfin could survive the shear, pressure and BS stressors expected within the PSH facility, but impacts varied among life stages. Juvenile survival was >70% across all shear strain rates, while the survival of eggs and larvae declined markedly as strain rate increased. All life stages had high survival when exposed to rapid compression and BS. The high survival of redfin to the stressors tested suggests the PSH facility could facilitate the passage of redfin during the pumping phase from the lower to the higher elevation reservoir. This outcome would be welcomed in situations where the species is native, but could have adverse implications for the conservation of native biota where the species is considered a pest.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Material Control & Accounting Modeling Developments for a Generic TRISO Fuel Fabrication Facility

The Material Protection, Accounting, and Control Technologies (MPACT) program utilizes modeling and simulation to assess Material Control and Accountability (MC&A) concerns for a variety of nuclear facilities. The Sandia National Laboratories (SNL)-developed Fissile Facility Flow Modeler (F3M) and the Material Accountancy Performance Indicator Toolkit (MAPIT) have historically provided MPACT with the capability to analyze MC&A approaches for nuclear facilities to determine that these facilities meet regulatory requirements. In FY25, improvements on the application of the F3M and MAPIT tools to simulate a generic TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel fabrication facility were successfully completed. The generic TRISO fuel fabrication F3M model captures the entire TRISO fuel fabrication process and is adaptable to any final TRISO fuel form, including spherical pebbles and cylindrical compacts loaded into graphite prismatic blocks. Comprehensive F3M/MAPIT functionality for the generic TRISO fuel fabrication model has been demonstrated. This modeling framework can be applied to support the U.S. Department of Energy and domestic nuclear industry stakeholders in developing MC&A approaches for advanced fuel fabrication facilities via statistical tests that demonstrate compliance to regulatory requirements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Design of a Loss of Coolant Blowdown Capsule for Remote Assembly with High Burnup Fuel

The Transient Water Irradiation System is an enhanced capability capsule type irradiation vehicle designed to support fuel safety research for light water reactor specimens in the Transient Reactor Test Facility and is designed to simulate loss of coolant and reactivity-initiated accidents. The capsule was designed, deployed, and commissioned with fresh fuel specimens to validate instrumentation and prepare for previously irradiated high burnup specimens. The irradiation system features an extensive in-situ instrumentation package to detect phenomena typical to light water reactor fuels. To accommodate the assembly with high burnup specimens inside the Hot Fuel Examination Facility, and to ensure instrumentation integrity is maintained throughout assembly, the design was updated to support remote handling. The updated design features a hinge mechanism which allows for remote pre-irradiated specimen loading and assembly while protecting sensitive instrumentation by relocating during loading. Fixtures and equipment have been developed to handle the experiment capsule and components in cell, and to support remote assembly. The experiment module also includes radiation shielding and contamination control to support operations after removal from the hot cell.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Issue Resolution During the Development of the Performance Assessment for the Savannah River Site Saltstone Disposal Facility - 20125

In 2019, Savannah River Remediation developed a revision to the performance assessment (PA) on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Operations Office (SR) for the near-surface disposal of low-level waste at the Savannah River Site (SRS) Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF). Soluble waste from SRS Tank Farms undergoes salt processing to remove cesium and other high-activity constituents. The low-activity decontaminated salt solution (DSS) is then immobilized by mixing it into a cementitious waste form known as saltstone. After mixing, the saltstone is poured into leak-tight concrete vaults, known as saltstone disposal units (SDUs), where the waste form cures. By the time of facility closure, the SDF is expected to consist of 15 SDUs with a combined capacity of 1.06 E+09 L (280 Mgal) of cured saltstone. The facility operates under a Disposal Authorization Statement from DOE and a permit from the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (SCDHEC). Since the start of operations in 1990, the SDF has received almost 6.7 E+07 L (18 Mgal) of DSS, resulting in the safe disposal of 2.7 E+16 Bq (7.3 E+05 Ci) of activity. Due to the radioactive decay of short-lived contaminants, the total remaining activity in the disposed waste is estimated to be approximately 1.4 E+16 Bq (3.9 E+05 Ci), as of September 2018. The Disposal Authorization Statement requires a demonstration that the system of engineered and natural features of the disposal facility will limit releases from the facility and be protective of human health and the environment for at least the next 1,000 years. The long-term performance of the facility was evaluated under the requirements of the DoE's Radioactive Waste Management Manual (US DOE Manual 435.1-1). Simulations were performed to demonstrate that the disposal facility would meet performance objectives specified in the manual. The evaluation was based on numerical models that simulate the releases of contaminants from the saltstone waste form. Contaminants were transported through groundwater and air pathways to points of assessment to evaluate compliance (i.e., 100 m from the SDUs). In addition, the potential consequences of an inadvertent human intrusion (IHI) were also evaluated. A number of issues were overcome during the development of these simulations. These issues were identified as part of internal technical reviews. Simulations are developed by people and people make mistakes, so the internal technical review process is a vital step in PA development. Specific examples of resolved issues include a unit-conversion error, an inappropriate definition for a model boundary condition, a model time-stepping issue, and an error in the calculation for the buildup of contaminants in soil. Actions taken to address these issues resulted in an improved product with a better supported technical basis and more defensible results. The identification and correction of these issues are discussed. By understanding these issues, model developers and technical reviewers working on PAs in the future may avoid repeating these types of mistakes. Transparency with respect to these mistakes builds trust between waste management sites, regulators, and stakeholders. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) Activity for Continental Shallow Convection

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility recently initiated the Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) activity focused on shallow convection at ARM’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory in Oklahoma. LASSO is designed to overcome an oft-shared difficulty of bridging the gap from point-based measurements to scales relevant for model parameterization development, and it provides an approach to add value to observations through modeling. LASSO is envisioned to be useful to modelers, theoreticians, and observationalists needing information relevant to cloud processes. LASSO does so by combining a suite of observations, LES inputs and outputs, diagnostics, and skill scores into data bundles that are freely available, and by simplifying user access to the data to speed scientific inquiry. The combination of relevant observations with observationally constrained LES output provides detail that gives context to the observations by showing physically consistent connections between processes based on the simulated state. A unique approach for LASSO is the generation of a library of cases for days with shallow convection combined with an ensemble of LES for each case. The library enables researchers to move beyond the single-case-study approach typical of LES research. The ensemble members are produced using a selection of different large-scale forcing sources and spatial scales. Since large-scale forcing is one of the most uncertain aspects of generating the LES, the ensemble informs users about potential uncertainty for each date and increases the probability of having an accurate forcing for each case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Update to the Performance Assessment for the Savannah River Site Saltstone Disposal Facility - 20124

In 2019, Savannah River Remediation developed a revision to the performance assessment (PA) on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Operations Office (SR) for the near-surface disposal of low-level waste at the Savannah River Site (SRS) Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF). Soluble waste from SRS Tank Farms undergoes salt processing to remove cesium and other high activity constituents. The low-activity decontaminated salt solution (DSS) is then immobilized by mixing it into a cementitious waste form known as saltstone. After mixing, the saltstone is poured into leak-tight concrete vaults, known as saltstone disposal units (SDUs), where the waste form cures. By the time of facility closure, the SDF is expected to consist of 15 SDUs with a combined capacity of 1.06 E+09 L (280 Mgal) of cured saltstone. The facility operates under a Disposal Authorization Statement (DAS) from DOE and a permit from the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (SCDHEC). Since the start of operations in 1990, the SDF has received almost 6.7 E+07 L (18 Mgal) of DSS, resulting in the safe disposal of 2.7 E+16 Bq (7.3 E+05 Ci) of activity. Due to the radioactive decay of short-lived contaminants, the total remaining activity in the disposed waste is estimated to be approximately 1.4 E+16 Bq (3.9 E+05 Ci), as of September 2018. The Disposal Authorization Statement requires a demonstration that the system of engineered and natural features of the disposal facility will limit releases from the facility and be protective of human health and the environment for at least the next 1,000 years. The long-term performance of the facility was evaluated under the requirements of the DoE's Radioactive Waste Management Manual (US DOE Manual 435.1-1). Simulations were performed to demonstrate that the disposal facility would meet performance objectives specified in the manual. The evaluation was based on numerical models that simulate the releases of contaminants from the saltstone waste form. Contaminants were transported through groundwater and air pathways to points of assessment to evaluate compliance. In addition, the potential consequences of an inadvertent human intrusion (IHI) were also evaluated. In accordance with the guidance and recommendations in US DoE's technical standard for DAS, deterministic and probabilistic analyses were performed to demonstrate the SDF system, which includes the engineered cover system, the SDUs, the waste form, and the natural features of the site, provides a reasonable expectation that saltstone disposal will meet performance objectives. Post-closure doses to future members of the public (MOP) were evaluated; dose estimates from the air pathway were well below the 1.0 E-04 Sv/yr (10 mrem/yr) performance objective within 1,000 years, and the calculated doses to the MOP from all exposure pathways, including the groundwater and air pathways, were well below the 2.5 E-04 Sv/yr (25 mrem/yr) performance objective within 1,000 years. Doses following an assumed intrusion event within the facility boundaries were well below the IHI performance objectives, where the acute IHI dose was below the acute IHI dose performance objective of 5.0 E-03 Sv (500 mrem) and the chronic IHI dose was below the chronic IHI dose performance objective of 1.0 E-03 Sv/yr (100 mrem/yr) within 1,000 years. (author)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A general Bayesian algorithm for the autonomous alignment of beamlines

Autonomous methods to align beamlines can decrease the amount of time spent on diagnostics, and also uncover better global optima leading to better beam quality. The alignment of these beamlines is a high-dimensional expensive-to-sample optimization problem involving the simultaneous treatment of many optical elements with correlated and nonlinear dynamics. Bayesian optimization is a strategy of efficient global optimization that has proved successful in similar regimes in a wide variety of beamline alignment applications, though it has typically been implemented for particular beamlines and optimization tasks. In this paper, we present a basic formulation of Bayesian inference and Gaussian process models as they relate to multi-objective Bayesian optimization, as well as the practical challenges presented by beamline alignment. We show that the same general implementation of Bayesian optimization with special consideration for beamline alignment can quickly learn the dynamics of particular beamlines in an online fashion through hyperparameter fitting with no prior information. We present the implementation of a concise software framework for beamline alignment and test it on four different optimization problems for experiments on X-ray beamlines at the National Synchrotron Light Source II and the Advanced Light Source, and an electron beam at the Accelerator Test Facility, along with benchmarking on a simulated digital twin. We discuss new applications of the framework, and the potential for a unified approach to beamline alignment at synchrotron facilities.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Report from the Inaugural Meeting on the Opportunities at the SEEMS Facility

An Inaugural Meeting on the Opportunities at the SEEMS Facility was held at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) on June 11 - 12, 2019. It focused on the second of the user communities - industrial and academic researchers. Indeed, the SEEMS design concept started with a Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) study conducted for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) that examines test facility options for providing neutron radiation simulating that in the atmosphere originating from cosmic rays and solar particles. The study was stimulated by earlier work calling for neutron radiation facilities with increased capacity and capabilities to meet current and future needs. Regulators, aircraft producers and avionics equipment suppliers recognize the growing urgent need for SEE testing in prototypical radiation fields. Industry standards formalizing procedures to assure that critical systems are robust against SEE phenomena have been issued. Regulatory bodies including the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) now requiring that updated standards are met for aircraft certification.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Simulated signatures of ignition

Ignition on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) provides a novel opportunity to evaluate past data to identify signatures of capsule failure mechanisms. We have used new simulations of high-yield implosions as well as some from past studies in order to identify unique signatures of different ignition failure mechanisms: jetting due to the presence of voids or defects, jetting due to the capsule fill tube, interfacial mixing due to instabilities or due to plasma transport, radiative cooling due to the presence of contaminant in the hot spot, long-wavelength drive asymmetry, and preheat. Many of these failure mechanisms exhibit unique trajectories that can be distinguished through variations in experimental observables such as neutron yield, down-scattered ratio (DSR), and burn width. Our simulations include capsules using both plastic and high-density carbon ablators and span all high-yield designs considered since the beginning of the National Ignition Campaign in 2011. We observe that the variability in trajectories through the space of neutron yield, DSR, and burn width varies little across capsule design yet are unique to the failure mechanism. The experimental trajectories are most consistent with simulated preheat and jetting due to voids and defects, which are the only failure mechanisms that are indistinguishable in our analysis. This suggests that improvements to capsule compression due to improved capsule quality or reduced preheat have played a primary role in enabling high yields on NIF. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that further improvements have the potential to increase yields further.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗