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At least 127 records · Page 7

Estimating Long Term Surface Soil Moisture in the GCIP Area From Satellite Microwave Observations

Soil moisture is an important component of the water and energy balances of the Earth's surface. Furthermore, it has been identified as a parameter of significant potential for improving the accuracy of large-scale land surface-atmosphere interaction models. However, accurate estimates of surface soil moisture are often difficult to make, especially at large spatial scales. Soil moisture is a highly variable land surface parameter, and while point measurements are usually accurate, they are representative only of the immediate site which was sampled. Simple averaging of point values to obtain spatial means often leads to substantial errors. Since remotely sensed observations are already a spatially averaged or areally integrated value, they are ideally suited for measuring land surface parameters, and as such, are a logical input to regional or larger scale land process models. A nine-year database of surface soil moisture is being developed for the Central United States from satellite microwave observations. This region forms much of the GCIP study area, and contains most of the Mississippi, Rio Grande, and Red River drainages. Daytime and nighttime microwave brightness temperatures were observed at a frequency of 6.6 GHz, by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), onboard the Nimbus 7 satellite. The life of the SMMR instrument spanned from Nov. 1978 to Aug. 1987. At 6.6 GHz, the instrument provided a spatial resolution of approximately 150 km, and an orbital frequency over any pixel-sized area of about 2 daytime and 2 nighttime passes per week. Ground measurements of surface soil moisture from various locations throughout the study area are used to calibrate the microwave observations. Because ground measurements are usually only single point values, and since the time of satellite coverage does not always coincide with the ground measurements, the soil moisture data were used to calibrate a regional water balance for the top 1, 5, and 10 cm surface layers in order to interpolate daily surface moisture values. Such a climate-based approach is often more appropriate for estimating large-area spatially averaged soil moisture because meteorological data are generally more spatially representative than isolated point measurements of soil moisture. Vegetation radiative transfer characteristics, such as the canopy transmissivity, were estimated from vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the 37 GHz Microwave Polarization Difference Index (MPDI). Passive microwave remote sensing presents the greatest potential for providing regular spatially representative estimates of surface soil moisture at global scales. Real time estimates should improve weather and climate modelling efforts, while the development of historical data sets will provide necessary information for simulation and validation of long-term climate and global change studies.

Owe, Manfred↗

The Martian climate and energy balance models with CO2/H2O atmospheres

The analysis begins with a seasonal energy balance model (EBM) for Mars. This is used to compute surface temperature versus x = sin(latitude) and time over the seasonal cycle. The core model also computes the evolving boundaries of the CO2 icecaps, net sublimational/condensation rates, and the resulting seasonal pressure wave. Model results are compared with surface temperature and pressure history data at Viking lander sites, indicating fairly good agreement when meridional heat transport is represented by a thermal diffusion coefficient D approx. 0.015 W/sq. m/K. Condensational wind distributions are also computed. An analytic model of Martian wind circulation is then proposed, as an extension of the EMB, which incorporates vertical wind profiles containing an x-dependent function evaluated by substitution in the equation defining the diffusion coefficient. This leads to a parameterization of D(x) and of the meridional circulation which recovers the high surface winds predicted by dynamic Mars atmosphere models (approx. 10 m/sec). Peak diffusion coefficients, D approx. 0.6 w/sq m/K, are found over strong Hadley zones - some 40 times larger than those of high-latitude baroclinic eddies. When the wind parameterization is used to find streamline patterns over Martian seasons, the resulting picture shows overturning hemispheric Hadley cells crossing the equator during solstices, and attaining peak intensities during the south summer dust storm season, while condensational winds are most important near the polar caps.

Hoffert, M. I.↗

Evaluation of satellite Leaf Area Index in California vineyards for improving water use estimation

Remote sensing estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) directly quantifies plant water consumption and provides essential information for irrigation scheduling, which is a pressing need for California vineyards as extreme droughts become more frequent. Many ET models take satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) as a major input, but how uncertainties of LAI estimations propagate to ET and the partitioning between evaporation and transpiration is poorly understood. Here we assessed six satellite-based LAI estimation approaches using Landsat and Sentinel-2 images against ground measurements from four vineyards in California and evaluated ET sensitivity to LAI in the thermal-based two-source energy balance (TSEB) model. We found that radiative transfer modeling-based approaches predicted low to medium LAI well, but they significantly underestimated high LAI in highly clumped vine canopies (RMSE ~ 0.97 to 1.27). Cubist regression models trained with ground LAI measurements from all vineyards achieved high accuracy (RMSE ~ 0.3 to 0.48), but these empirical models did not generalize well between sites. Red edge bands and the related vegetation index (VI) from the Sentinel-2 satellite contain complementary information of LAI to VIs based on near-infrared and red bands. TSEB ET was more sensitive to positive LAI biases than negative ones. Positive LAI errors of 50% resulted in up to 50% changes in ET, while negative biases of 50% in LAI caused less than 10% deviations in ET. However, even when ET changes were minimal, negative LAI errors of 50% led to up to a 40% reduction in modeled transpiration, as soil evaporation and plant transpiration responded to LAI change divergently. These findings call for careful consideration of satellite LAI uncertainties for ET modeling, especially for the partitioning of water loss between vine and soil or cover crop for effective vineyard irrigation management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Capital Cost Reduction Pathways for Advanced Nuclear Reactors

The framework developed in this study is provided both as an excel sheet (https://inl.gov/content/uploads/2023/11/Nuclear-Reactor-Cost-Reduction-Pathway-Spreadsheet-Tool.xlsx) and a Python (Jupyter) Notebook (link: https://github.com/accert-dev/ACCERT/tree/main/Cost%20Reduction). Capital cost considerations are one of the primary inhibitors to the large-scale deployment of nuclear power plants. While it is widely accepted that first units will likely be expensive and relatively uncompetitive, it is reasonable to expect that subsequent units, built in relative quick succession, will be cheaper as they benefit from the so-called “learning effects”. However, the large degree of uncertainty associated with this parameter renders it challenging for first movers to invest in the first few expensive units. To resolve this impasse, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Nuclear Liftoff study advocated for the formation of large, committed order books of plants of the same technology to spread the costs across several units and kickstart the nuclear supply chain. The study also advocated best practices for avoiding overruns and keeping reactors on budget. This report builds on these key recommendations by attempting to quantify specific pathways toward cost reduction for nuclear energy. A capital cost estimation framework was built to untangle the effect of learning into a subset of key cost drivers, referred to as “levers”. Collectively, the choice of these levers is intended to reflect the decision-making of high-level stakeholders like plant owners and the government. In addition to the size of the firm orderbook, these levers included (a) cost drivers that are most often attributed to cost overruns such as architect/engineering (A/E) proficiency, construction proficiency, procurement service proficiency, design completion prior to the start of construction, and design maturity, and (b) cost reduction strategies such as modular construction, cross-site standardization, safety classification of the reactor building, and of the balance of plant. Two advanced reactor designs were leveraged as use cases and bottom-up cost estimates made with assumptions consistent with a well-executed first-of-a-kind project (WE-FOAK, i.e., almost no overruns) were used as baselines for the models. Cost correlations were surveyed from the literature to determine the impact of important variables on projected timelines and costs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Behavior of molecules on interstellar grains - Application of the Langevin equation and iterative extended Hueckel

The Langevin equation was used to explore an adsorbate desorption mechanism. Calculations were performed using iterative extended Hueckel on a silica model site with various small adsorbates, e.g., H, CH, OH, NO, CO. It was found that barriers to free traversal from one site to another are substantial (about 3-10 eV). A bootstrap desorption mechanism for some molecules in the process of forming at a site also became apparent from the calculations. The desorption mechanisms appear to be somewhat balanced by a counterforce - the attraction of sites for the newly desorbed molecule. The order of attraction to a silica grain site for the diatomic molecules considered was OH greater than CH greater than CO greater than NO, when these entities were sufficiently distant. The nature of the silica grain and that of the 'cold' desorption mechanism, when considered together, suggest that the abundance of very small grains might be less common than anticipated.

Aronowitz, S.↗

Behavior of Molecules on Interstellar Grains: Application of the Langevin Equation and Iterative Extended Huckel

The Langevin equation was used to explore an adsorbate desorption mechanism. Calculations were performed using iterative extended Huckel on a silica model site with various small adsorbates, e.g., H, CH, OH, NO, CO. It was found that barriers to free traversal from one site to another are substantial (approximately 3 - 10 eV). A bootstrap desorption mechanism for some molecules in the process of forming at a site also became apparent from the calculations. The desorption mechanisms appear to be somewhat balanced by a counterforce--the attraction of sites for the newly desorbed molecule. The order of attraction to a silica grain site for the diatomic molecules considered was OH > CH > CO > NO, when these entities were sufficiently distant. The nature of the silica grain and that of the "cold" desorption mechanism, when considered together, suggest that the abundance of very small grains might be less common than anticipated.

Aronowitz. Sheldon↗

A Deep Exon Cryptic Splice Site Promotes Aberrant Intron Retention in a Von Willebrand Disease Patient

A translationally silent single nucleotide mutation in exon 44 (E44) of the von Willebrand factor (VWF) gene is associated with inefficient removal of intron 44 in a von Willebrand disease (VWD) patient. This intron retention (IR) event was previously attributed to reordered E44 secondary structure that sequesters the normal splice donor site. We propose an alternative mechanism: the mutation introduces a cryptic splice donor site that interferes with the function of the annotated site to favor IR. We evaluated both models using minigene splicing reporters engineered to vary in secondary structure and/or cryptic splice site content. Analysis of splicing efficiency in transfected K562 cells suggested that the mutation-generated cryptic splice site in E44 was sufficient to induce substantial IR. Mutations predicted to vary secondary structure at the annotated site also had modest effects on IR and shifted the balance of residual splicing between the cryptic site and annotated site, supporting competition among the sites. Further studies demonstrated that introduction of cryptic splice donor motifs at other positions in E44 did not promote IR, indicating that interference with the annotated site is context dependent. We conclude that mutant deep exon splice sites can interfere with proper splicing by inducing IR.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Nasa's Land Remote Sensing Plans for the 1980's

Research since the launch of LANDSAT-1 has been primarily directed to the development of analysis techniques and to the conduct of applications studies designed to address resource information needs in the United States and in many other countries. The current measurement capabilities represented by MSS, TM, and SIR-A and B, coupled with the present level of remote sensing understanding and the state of knowledge in the discipline earth sciences, form the foundation for NASA's Land Processes Program. Science issues to be systematically addressed include: energy balance, hydrologic cycle, biogeochemical cycles, biological productivity, rock cycle, landscape development, geological and botanical associations, and land surface inventory, monitoring, and modeling. A global perspective is required for using remote sensing technology for problem solving or applications context. A successful model for this kind of activity involves joint research with a user entity where the user provides a test site and ground truth and NASA provides the remote sensing techniques to be tested.

Higg, H. C.↗

The first International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment - FIFE

The International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) will verify the use of satellite data for the estimation of land-surface properties through field experiments using point measurements on the ground and areal measurements from aircraft overflights. It will study approaches for obtaining areal averages of the radiation, moisture, and heat fluxes made using remotely sensed data, by combining the surface point measurements of the fluxes with the aircraft areal observations using a surface energy balance model. Surface parameters to be estimated from aircraft observations include: surface radiation temperature, albedo, land cover or vegetation index, and surface soil moisture. The latter will be obtained using passive and active microwave approaches. The area-averages of the surface properties will be compared with satellite data. The First ISLSCP Field Experiment is planned for a site having relatively uniform vegetation cover in the central great plains of the U.S.A.

Schmugge, T. J.↗

A Theoretical and Observational Study of Large and Small-Scale Dynamics in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere in Support of TIMED

The long-term objectives of this IDS component of the TIMED mission are to define, through a combination of modeling and data analysis efforts, the influences of large- and small-scale waves (tidal, planetary, and gravity waves) on the circulation, structure, composition, and variability of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. Particular emphasis is aimed at the TIMED core science objectives of defining the structure and energetics of the TIMED core region, approx. 60 to 180 km. To do so, however, it is also essential to understand the dynamical influences and contributions because of their considerable direct and indirect influences on structure and energetics. To accomplish these goals, we anticipate two parallel modeling efforts and a significant data analysis effort following TIMED launch. The modeling efforts will address both: the residual circulation response to mean and variable wave forcing of the MLT through development of a spherical model addressing balanced flow dynamics and transience and a more comprehensive effort addressing gravity wave propagation, interactions, nonlinearity, and spectral evolution and transports in canonical and realistic environments. The data analysis effort is envisioned to involve application of ground-based measurements and TIMED data analyses to a quantification of gravity wave forcing and effects at one or more sites with comprehensive measurement suites and extension of the inferred forcing globally, based on distributed ground-based measurements. Research results and publications resulting from the research are included.

Fritts, David C.↗

Towards Energy-Positive Buildings through a Quality-Matched Energy Flow Strategy

Current strategies for net-zero buildings favor envelopes with minimized aperture ratios and limiting of solar gains through reduced glazing transmittance and emissivity. This load-reduction approach precludes strategies that maximize on-site collection of solar energy, which could increase opportunities for net-zero electricity projects. To better leverage solar resources, a whole-building strategy is proposed, referred to as “Quality-Matched Energy Flows” (or Q-MEF): capturing, transforming, buffering, and transferring irradiance on a building’s envelope—and energy derived from it—into distributed end-uses. A mid-scale commercial building was modeled in three climates with a novel Building-Integrated, Transparent, Concentrating Photovoltaic and Thermal fenestration technology (BITCoPT), thermal storage and circulation at three temperature ranges, adsorption chillers, and auxiliary heat pumps. BITCoPT generated electricity and collected thermal energy at high efficiencies while transmitting diffuse light and mitigating excess gains and illuminance. The balance of systems satisfied cooling and heating demands. Relative to baselines with similar glazing ratios, net electricity use decreased 71% in a continental climate and 100% or more in hot-arid and subtropical-moderate climates. Total EUI decreased 35%, 83%, and 52%, and peak purchased electrical demands decreased up to 6%, 32%, and 20%, respectively (with no provisions for on-site electrical storage). Decreases in utility services costs were also noted. These results suggest that with further development of electrification the Q-MEF strategy could contribute to energy-positive behavior for projects with similar typology and climate profiles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

System-level performance and degradation of 21 GWDC of utility-scale PV plants in the United States

We assess the performance of a fleet of 411 utility-scale (i.e., >5 MWAC and ground-mounted) photovoltaic (PV) projects totaling 21.1 GWDC (16.3 GWAC) of capacity, which achieved commercial operations in the United States from 2007 to 2016. This fleet of projects contributed more than 50% of all solar electricity generated in the United States in 2017. Using detailed information on individual project characteristics, in conjunction with modeled irradiance data, we assess the extent to which actual first-year performance has lived up to both modeled and stated expectations. We then analyze system-level performance degradation in subsequent years by employing a “fixed effects” regression model to statistically isolate the impact of age on system performance. We find that this fleet of utility-scale PV projects has generally lived up to ex ante expectations for first-year performance but that subsequent system-level degradation—found to be −1.3%/year (±0.2%)—has, on average, been worse than both ex ante expectations (commonly −0.5%/year) and results from past studies (ranging from −0.8%/year to −1.0%/year). We emphasize that −1.3%/year is a system-level estimate that captures more than just module degradation (e.g., including soiling, balance of plant degradation, and downtime for maintenance and/or other events). A side analysis of a variety of project characteristics suggests that system-level degradation rates tend to be of lower magnitude among newer projects and larger projects and at sites with lower long-term average temperatures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Direct Estimation of the Global Distribution of Vertical Velocity Within Cirrus Clouds

Cirrus clouds determine the radiative balance of the upper troposphere and the transport of water vapor across the tropopause.The representation of vertical wind velocity, W, in atmospheric models constitutes the largest source of uncertainty in the calculation of the cirrus formation rate. Using global atmospheric simulations with a spatial resolution of 7 kilometers we obtain for the first time a direct estimate of the distribution of W at the scale relevant for cirrus formation, validated against long-term observations at two different ground sites. The standard deviation in W, sigma (sub W), varies widely over the globe with the highest values resulting from orographic uplift and convection, and the lowest occurring in the Arctic. Globally about 90 of the simulated sigma (sub W) values are below 0.1 meters per second and about one in 10 (sup 4) cloud formation events occur in environments with sigma (sub W) greater than 0.8 meters per second. Combining our estimate with reanalysis products and an advanced cloud formation scheme results in lower homogeneous ice nucleation frequency than previously reported, and a decreasing average ice crystal concentration with decreasing temperature. These features are in agreement with observations and suggest that the correct parameterization of sigma (sub W) is critical to simulate realistic cirrus properties.

Radiative Balance↗

As‐Doped Polycrystalline CdSeTe: Localized Defects, Carrier Mobility and Lifetimes, and Impact on High‐Efficiency Solar Cells

Abstract The efficiency potential for single‐junction photovoltaics (PV) is described by the detailed balance model, which requires the elimination of nonradiative recombination and perfect minority carrier collection. Improvements in GaAs, Si, and perovskite PV follow this model. It might be more complex for CdTe, a leading thin‐film PV technology. While lifetime, passivation, and doping goals for 25% efficient CdTe solar cells are largely reached, voltage is ≈20% below the detailed balance limit. Why is that? In Se‐alloyed CdSe x Te 1‐x (Se is required for >20% efficiency) additional losses can occur due to electrostatic and bandgap fluctuations and due to electronic trap states. To understand mechanisms limiting CdSeTe solar cell performance and to suggest improvements, carrier dynamics, and transport in CdSe x Te 1‐x with variation in Se composition and as doping is analyzed. It is shown that trapping, likely due to anion‐site defects and their complexes, is correlated with low charge carrier mobility of 0.1–0.6 cm 2 (Vs) −1 . Even with 1000 ns charge carrier lifetimes, carrier diffusion length is less than the absorber thickness, reducing efficiency to ≈23%. Device simulations are used to analyze the performance of CdSe x Te 1‐x solar cells; thermodynamic models are not sufficient for absorbers with electronic disorder and trapping.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Daily evapotranspiration changes during heatwaves at 32 NEON sites, 2019-2021

This dataset provides partitioned evapotranspiration (ET, the combined loss of water from soil and plant surfaces) anomalies during heatwave events—soil evaporation (E) and transpiration (T)—for 268 heatwave events across 32 National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) flux sites in the contiguous United States from 2019–2021. Using an ensemble of four high-frequency turbulence methods (Flux-variance Similarity, Conditional Eddy Covariance [CEC], CEC with Water-Use Efficiency, and Conditional Eddy Accumulation; see Zahn and Bou-Zeid 2024), half-hourly transpiration-to-evapotranspiration (T/ET) ratios were derived from 20 hertz (Hz, cycles per second) eddy covariance measurements of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and water vapor (H₂O) concentrations. The dataset spans six vegetation types including evergreen and deciduous forests, grasslands, cultivated crops, shrublands, and emergent herbaceous wetlands. Data Package Contents: The dataset includes a single CSV (comma-separated values) file containing daily anomalies (deviations from baseline conditions) for transpiration (Delta_T), evaporation (Delta_E), total evapotranspiration (Delta_ET), and T/ET ratio (Delta_T_ET) during each day of identified heatwave events. The file also includes site codes, dates, heatwave event identifiers, and day-of-heatwave indicators. The CSV file can be opened with spreadsheet software (Microsoft Excel, Google Sheets) or programming environments (Python, R, MATLAB). This resource enables researchers to investigate ecosystem-specific responses to thermal extremes, validate land surface model partitioning of ET fluxes, and examine feedbacks between water cycling and surface energy balance during heatwaves. The dataset is particularly valuable for studies linking vegetation hydraulic strategies to climate resilience, as it captures the divergent responses of shallow-rooted versus deep-rooted ecosystems. Potential applications include improving drought early warning systems, informing irrigation management strategies, and advancing our mechanistic understanding of land-atmosphere interactions under extreme heat conditions.

Day of Heatwave↗

Hourly Electricity Demand Profiles for Each County in the Contiguous United States

This dataset provides estimated hourly electricity demand for each county in the contiguous United States from 2016-2023. The demand profiles represent the sum of two components: (1) Weighted averages of reported hourly demand profiles for North American Electric Reliability Corporation balancing authority (BA) regions and subregions, scaled to match annual estimates of county-level retail sales and direct use of electricity and weighted by the estimated percentage of county load served by each BA region or subregion. (2) Weighted averages of modeled hourly, county- and sector-level distributed photovoltaic (DPV) capacity factor profiles, scaled to match annual estimates of on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity for each county and weighted by the percentage of consumption attributable to each sector Annual county-level retail sales are estimated by aggregating utility-reported sales to the state level and allocating the results to counties according to each county's share of state population. Annual county-level direct use is calculated by aggregating power plant-reported direct use values. Annual county-level on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity is estimated by aggregating utility-reported net metering data to determine the amount of DPV-generated electricity sold back to the grid for each state, subtracting those values from modeled state-level DPV generation estimates, and allocating the results to counties according to each county's share of statewide modeled DPV generation. The open-source Python code used to develop this dataset is available at "Historical Load Data Repository" link below.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Boundary layer moisture variability at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic observatory during marine conditions

Abstract. Boundary layer moisture variability at the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site during marine conditions is examined at monthly and daily timescales using 5 years of ground-based observations and output from the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis model. The annual cycle of the mixed-layer total water budgets is presented to estimate the relative contribution of large-scale advection, local moisture tendency, entrainment, and precipitation to balance the moistening due to surface latent heat flux on monthly timescales. When marine conditions prevail, advection of colder and dry air from the north acts as an important moisture sink (∼ 50 % of the overall budget) during fall and winter driving the seasonality of the budget. Entrainment and precipitation contribute to the drying of the boundary layer (∼ 25 % and ∼ 15 % respectively), and the local change in moisture contributes to a small residual part. On a daily temporal scale, moist and dry mesoscale columns of vapor (∼ 10 km) are analyzed during 10 selected days of precipitating stratocumulus clouds. Adjacent moist and dry columns present distinct mesoscale features that are strongly correlated with clouds and precipitation. Dry columns adjacent to moist columns have more frequent and stronger downdrafts immediately below the cloud base. Moist columns have more frequent updrafts, stronger cloud-top cooling, and higher liquid water path and precipitation compared to the dry columns. This study highlights the complex interaction between large-scale and local processes controlling the boundary layer moisture and the importance of spatial distribution of vapor to support convection and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Solar and stellar flares - Questions and problems

Topics which can be discussed quantitatively for both solar and stellar flares are reviewed. Physical conditions in stellar flares are briefly discussed and radio flares are considered, emphasizing the role of maser process in such flares. The penetration of particle beams and photons is examined, addressing the question whether an electron beam can penetrate to the chromosphere of a flare star. The existence of momentum balance in stellar flares is investigated, and solar-stellar differences regarding subsurface source of flare power are described. The significance for the interstellar medium of the flare star mass loss rate is addressed, and differences in mass loss mechanism between the sun and flare stars are discussed. Reconnection modeling of flare energy release is studied, and the geometrical structure of the flare site in a stellar atmosphere is described. The connection between coronal heating and flares is considered, and the origins of flare magnetic fields are discussed.

Mullan, D. J.↗