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At least 127 records · Page 7

Prediction of regional infrasound produced by supersonic sources using a ray-based Mach cone source

The geometry of the Mach cone produced by a supersonic source is analyzed and mapped into initial conditions used in acoustic ray tracing. The resulting source model is combined with spherical geometry ray tracing methods to enable propagation simulations for infrasonic signals produced by bolides, space debris, rockets, aircraft, and other fast-than-sound sources out to typical infrasonic observation distances of hundreds or thousands of kilometers. Idealized linear and parabolic trajectories typical of bolides and rockets, respectively, are used to demonstrate the calculation of regional infrasonic signals produced by such sources and characteristics of the radiated infrasonic waves are found to vary strongly with the geometry of the trajectory and atmospheric structure. Predicted regional infrasonic signals are compared with those observed from a November 2020 bolide that passed over Scandinavia using a combination of institutionally maintained infrasound stations and “citizen scientist” data from the Raspberry Shake data repository.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Site 300 B-851 Permit: Radiological Assumptions and Source Term - Air Dispersion Modeling for Radiological Dose Assessment

The following modeling assumptions and source term that is provided in the attachments to this document are meant to serve as a guide to the presentation delivered on April 23rd, 2020, to the San Joaquin Air District Permit Services slides. This analysis is in response to the District’s “Project Incompleteness Letter” (Facility Number: N-472 and Project Number: N-1173492) regarding the potential for depleted uranium (DU) to be resuspended from areas of contaminated soil at Site 300 as a result of high explosive (HE) experiments increased to a requested permitted maximum of 1,000 pound detonations with an annual HE throughput not to exceed 7,500 pounds per year. LLNL has taken every step in the radiological health risk concerns in the modeling assumptions and final source term to be at a level of maximum conservativeness. As an example, forty soil samples were taken in the B-851 area (LLNL-AR-738708 – 2018) and assayed for uranium-234, uranium-235, and uranium-238 concentrations. The maximum uranium soil concentrations were used in the assumptions (potential for resuspended dust occurring from detonation experiments) and not the use of median uranium soil concentrations – a more realistic outcome. Additionally, these uranium soil concentrations were considered to be at 100% uptake in the vegetation for prescribed burns; vegetation uptake factors were not used as that would lower the final source term. This level of conservativeness was maintained throughout the modeling assumptions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

EnergyPlus-MCP: A model-context-protocol server for ai-driven building energy modeling

Traditional building energy modeling with the EnergyPlus building performance simulation engine requires domain expertise, programming skills, and intensive manual efforts limiting its effective adoption. This paper introduces EnergyPlus-MCP, the first open-source Model Context Protocol (MCP) server specifically designed for EnergyPlus simulation workflows, establishing a new foundational infrastructure for AI-driven building energy modeling. The MCP server implements a layered architecture with 35 specialized tools spanning model management, editing and analysis, HVAC and other systems configuration inspection, and simulation execution, enabling Large Language Models to interact with EnergyPlus through conversational interfaces. The server addresses critical workflow barriers by automating model validation, streamlining energy efficiency measures modification, and providing intelligent output management with interactive visualization. Through practical demonstrations using a multi-zone building retrofit analysis, we show how the EnergyPlus-MCP server significantly reduces manual efforts while maintaining full simulation rigor. By providing accessible natural language interfaces to sophisticated building energy analysis, this approach enables scalable deployment of simulation expertise across public and private organizations, educational institutions, and research teams, fundamentally transforming traditional building energy modeling practices.

AI↗

Temporal Explosion Source Processes of Declared Nuclear Tests in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea

In this work we highlight a preliminary temporal source analysis of the six declared Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) nuclear tests. We use regional seismic data to estimate relative source time functions (RSTFs) via iterative time-domain deconvolution (Ammon, 2006; Pippin, 2022) of vertical-component ground motions recorded within 2000 km of the source region. Since RSTFs are ideally independent of site and propagation effects, their amplitude spectrum is equivalent to the source spectral ratio, but they also retain phase information. We compare observed RSTFs (in the time and frequency domains) with synthetic RSTFs derived from the Mueller & Murphy (1971) explosion source model. The resolution of these time functions varies, however, we generally obtain high-quality results within the limitations of the recording broadband instrumentation. The results indicate that this method effectively preserves source time-history information that can be used for temporal analysis of remote nuclear explosions. This preliminary analysis is intended to assess the viability of using time-domain deconvolution methods for extracting temporal source information.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

A Case Study on Condenser Water Supply Temperature Optimization with a District Cooling Plant

District cooling (DC) continues to proliferate due to increasing global cooling demands and economies of scale benefits; however, most district-scale modeling has focused on heating, and to the best of our knowledge, researchers have yet to model cooling plants featuring waterside economizers in DC settings. With the popular Modelica Buildings library expanding its capabilities to district scale, this study is one of the first to demonstrate how the open-source models can be used for detailed energy and control analysis of a DC plant. For a real-world case study, we developed and calibrated high-fidelity models for a DC system central plant at a college campus in Colorado, USA, and we optimized the condenser water supply temperature (CWST) setpoint for a DC plant across multiple time horizons using the Optimization library in Dymola. Results indicate that annual CWST optimization saves 4.7% annual plant energy, with less than 1% of additional energy savings gained through daily optimization. This confirms previous studies' findings that high frequency CWST optimizations are not necessary for the studied system.

chiller plant↗

Minimum Resolution Requirements for Gamma Identification Algorithms

Each year there are millions of dollars spent on the research and production of high-resolution detectors. This research indicates that the pursuit of higher resolution detectors is not always necessary. The terminal resolution of a NaI detector, or highest detector resolution, at which identification algorithms fail to identify highly enriched uranium (HEU) was evaluated using GADRAS, Genie, and GammaVision. GADRAS employs a template matching algorithm, while Genie and GammaVision utilize a mathematical approach for peak search and identification. The NaI spectra utilized for evaluation were generated using the GADRAS Inject tab and source modeling functions. Each spectrum included terrestrial and cosmic background from Dallas, TX. The resolutions for each spectrum were increased from a default 8.92% to a point where each algorithm would fail to identify 235 U from a HEU source. Six different source configurations were used in this research: bare HEU, 50% shielded HEU, 90% shielded HEU, bare HEU with an interference source of 99 mTc, bare HEU with 99 mTc both shielded 50%, and bare HEU with 99 mTc both shielded 90%. T

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Interferometric SAR modelling of near surface data to improve geological model in the Surat Basin, Australia

Here we present a study on geophysical inverse modelling for subsurface structural properties of an unconventional hydrocarbon site that was monitored previously by Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technology for surface deformation. A static three-dimensional geomodel along with extracted property maps replicates the depth of each underlying stratigraphic unit and structural feature with the density of each geological layer. We examine the hypothesis that integration of elastic properties of each formation layer with InSAR observations in a stratified elastic medium will lead to a viscoelastic geophysical inverse problem that can be solved to estimate fractional volume change at the reservoir level. Moreover, we examine synthetic scenarios in which the elastic properties of the formations are perturbed before determining the resulting impact on the rate of surface deformation. The results show that although the slope of underlying formations, their density and depth can define the extent and pattern of a deformation signal, their properties have a marginal impact on volumetric change compared to the dense network of shallow depth Coal Seam Gas (CSG) mining wells. Besides, it is also demonstrated that the inversion of InSAR deformation maps can resolve the uncertainties associated with low-resolution seismic interpretation as well as filling the data gaps within seismic acquisitions. A significant contribution of this investigation to the geological basin modelling involves a) introducing a remote and non-invasive technology such as InSAR to improve geophysical mapping of subsurface structures such as faults in areas with sparse or no reflective seismic information, and b) applying a multi-layer viscoelastic geophysical source model for an unconventional hydrocarbon reservoir such as CSG.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantification of spatial and seasonal trends in the atmosphere and construction of statistical models for infrasonic propagation

SUMMARY Infrasonic waves are influenced by variations in the density, pressure and temperature as well as the ambient winds. Modelling infrasonic propagation can be challenging due to the dynamic nature of the atmosphere as well as the sparseness of measurements which result in variability and notable uncertainty. A framework is presented to quantify spatial and seasonal trends in atmospheric structure via analysis of the effective sound speed profile and identification of temporal trends in the middle atmospheric waveguide produced by the circumpolar vortex winds. Seasonal definitions identifying typical atmospheric structures during the summer, winter and spring/fall transition periods are identified using atmospheric data from 2010 through 2020. Seasonal trend analysis is conducted for a number of locations across the contiguous United States to quantify spatial variations in atmospheric structure that impact infrasonic propagation. For each season and location, empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reduce the historical archive of atmospheric data into a smaller representative set that can be analysed using numerical tools more efficiently. Infrasonic ray tracing and finite-frequency modal propagation analyses are applied to construct propagation path geometry and transmission loss statistics which are useful in localization and yield estimation for infrasonic sources, respectively. An example application is detailed in which transmission loss statistics are combined with an explosive source model and noise statistics to quantify the capability of a network to detect nearby sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hourly Electricity Demand Projections for Eight Combined Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios

This dataset contains 40 years (1980-2019) of simulated historical hourly electricity demand (i.e., loads) and 80 years (2020-2099) of projected hourly loads for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) and 48 states plus the District of Columbia. Details about the scenarios and variables included in this dataset are in the readme.pdf file. The two primary models that created the dataset are a version of the Global Change Analysis Model with detailed sectoral resolution over the United States (GCAM-USA) and the Total ELectricity Loads (TELL) model. Links to the model source code and workflow for deriving the dataset are provided in an accompanying meta-repository: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/burleyson-etal_2023_applied_energy. Projections are for four future climate scenarios that represent combinations of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 combined with two levels of climate model sensitivities: rcp45cooler, rcp45hotter, rcp85cooler, and rcp85hotter. The four climate scenarios are crossed with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3 and 5 to yield eight different future load projections: rcp45cooler_ssp3, rcp45cooler_ssp5, rcp45hotter_ssp3, rcp45hotter_ssp5, rcp85cooler_ssp3, rcp85cooler_ssp5, rcp85hotter_ssp3, and rcp85hotter_ssp5. The climate scenarios are from the IM3 Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) dataset which is linked below in the related metadata. The related metadata also contains links to a repository containing the raw GCAM-USA output files.

Climate Change↗

Hourly Electricity Demand Projections for Eight Combined Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios

This dataset contains 40 years (1980-2019) of simulated historical hourly electricity demand (i.e., loads) and 80 years (2020-2099) of projected hourly loads for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) and 48 states plus the District of Columbia. Details about the scenarios and variables included in this dataset are in the readme.pdf file. The two primary models that created the dataset are a version of the Global Change Analysis Model with detailed sectoral resolution over the United States (GCAM-USA) and the Total ELectricity Loads (TELL) model. Links to the model source code and workflow for deriving the dataset are provided in an accompanying meta-repository: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/burleyson-etal_2024_applied_energy. Projections are for four future climate scenarios that represent combinations of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 combined with two levels of climate model sensitivities: rcp45cooler, rcp45hotter, rcp85cooler, and rcp85hotter. The four climate scenarios are crossed with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3 and 5 to yield eight different future load projections: rcp45cooler_ssp3, rcp45cooler_ssp5, rcp45hotter_ssp3, rcp45hotter_ssp5, rcp85cooler_ssp3, rcp85cooler_ssp5, rcp85hotter_ssp3, and rcp85hotter_ssp5. The climate scenarios are from the IM3 Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) dataset which is linked below in the related metadata. The related metadata also contains links to a repository containing the raw GCAM-USA output files.

Climate Change↗

Quantifying rupture characteristics of microearthquakes in the Parkfield Area using a high-resolution borehole network

It is well known that large earthquakes often exhibit significant rupture complexity such as well separated subevents. With improved recording and data processing techniques, small earthquakes have been found to exhibit rupture complexity as well. Studying these small earthquakes offers the opportunity to better understand the possible causes of rupture complexities. Specifically, if they are random or are related to fault properties. We examine microearthquakes (M < 3) in the Parkfield, California, area that are recorded by a high-resolution borehole network. We quantify earthquake complexity by the deviation of source time functions and source spectra from simple circular (omega-square) source models. We establish thresholds to declare complexity, and find that it can be detected in earthquakes larger than magnitude 2, with the best resolution above M2.5. Comparison between the two approaches reveals good agreement (>90 per cent), implying both methods are characterizing the same source complexity. For the two methods, 60–80 per cent (M 2.6–3) of the resolved events are complex depending on the method. The complex events we observe tend to cluster in areas of previously identified structural complexity; a larger fraction of the earthquakes exhibit complexity in the days following the M w 6 2004 Parkfield earthquake. Ignoring the complexity of these small events can introduce artefacts or add uncertainty to stress drop measurements. Focusing only on simple events however could lead to systematic bias, scaling artefacts and the lack of measurements of stress in structurally complex regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Causes and consequences of experimental variation in Nicotiana benthamiana transient expression

Infiltration of Agrobacterium tumefaciens into Nicotiana benthamiana has become a foundational technique in plant biology, enabling efficient delivery of transgenes in planta with technical ease, robust signal, and relatively high throughput. Despite transient expression’s prevalence in disciplines such as synthetic biology, little work has been done to describe and address the variability inherent in this system, a concern for experiments that rely on highly quantitative readouts. In a comprehensive analysis of N. benthamiana agroinfiltration experiments, we model sources of variability that affect transient expression. Our findings emphasize the need to validate normalization methods under the specific conditions of each study, as distinct normalization schemes do not always reduce variation either within or between experiments. Using a dataset of 1915 plants collected over three years, we develop a model of variation in N. benthamiana transient expression, using power analysis to determine the number of individual plants required for a given effect size. Drawing on our longitudinal data, these findings inform practical guidelines for minimizing variability through strategic experimental design and power analysis, providing a foundation for more robust and reproducible use of N. benthamiana in quantitative plant biology and synthetic biology applications.

Tang, Sophia N. [Joint BioEnergy Institute (JBEI),↗

A Framework for Assessing Economic and Environmental Trade-offs of Internalized Emission Costs in ERCOT Grid Planning

The power grid is on the cusp of a massive transition driven by three major areas: 1) the growth in demand for electricity, 2) efforts to decarbonize the United States economy, and 3) a desire to mitigate social disparities from the impact of electricity generation on local populations. However, most studies of the electricity sector do not include equity impacts in their models. This study seeks to do so by developing a comprehensive and generalizable model tailored to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid, designed to incorporate the equity impacts of electricity generation in a decarbonized and resilient framework. To integrate equity into our research, we incorporate environmental externalities into our capacity expansion model of ERCOT. Specifically, we factor in intermediate-level local marginal damages of precursor pollutants (NH3, NOx, primary PM2.5, SO2, and VOC) and global pollutant CO2 into the cost of generating electricity. We do this by taking into account county population, county ambient pollution concentration, and generator emission rates. Leveraging open-source modeling tools, such as PowerGenome, pyGRETA, and GenX we construct a county-level model to account for these costs. We integrate these marginal damages into the variable operations and maintenance costs of generators, for both existing and potential future builds. This study’s findings suggest that the value of a dynamic social cost of carbon (SSC) will cover criteria pollutant marginal damages within the ERCOT grid and solar and wind is expected to increase out to 2035. Key metrics evaluated within this research include fuel mix distribution across technologies, transmission and grid infrastructure costs, CO2 emissions, local pollutants marginal damages, and the variation in generation capacity built by the model. These results and framework can be used to support grid decisions that explicitly include distributional and procedural equity within a decarbonized and sustainable grid framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Incorporating geological structure into sensitivity analysis of subsurface contaminant transport

Simulating subsurface contaminant transport at the kilometer-scale often entails modeling reactive flow and transport within and through complex geologic structures. These structures are typically meshed by hand and as a result geologic structure is usually represented by one or a few deterministically generated geological models for uncertainty studies of flow and transport in the subsurface. Uncertainty in geologic structure can have a significant impact on contaminant transport. In this study, the impact of geologic structure on contaminant tracer transport in a shale formation is investigated for a simplified generic deep geologic repository for permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuel. An open-source modeling framework is used to perform a sensitivity analysis study on transport of two tracers from a generic spent nuclear fuel repository with uncertain location of the interfaces between the stratum of the geologic structure. The automated workflow uses sampled realizations of the geological structural model in addition to uncertain flow parameters in a nested sensitivity analysis. Concentration of the tracers at observation points within, in line with, and downstream of the repository are used as the quantities of interest for determining model sensitivity to input parameters and geological realization. Finally, the results of the study indicate that the location of strata interfaces in the geological structure has a first-order impact on tracer transport in the example shale formation, and that this impact may be greater than that of the uncertain flow parameters.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Acoustic Codes in 2D Spherical Coordinate

Finite-difference methods are widely used to simulate infrasound propagation in the atmosphere. Flexibility of finite-difference scheme allows implementation of highly heterogeneous media for sound propagation as well as complex source models for sound generation. While full 3-D finite-difference methods have been utilized for local infrasound propagation with pronounced topography, 2-D modeling approach has been preferred for regional and global propagation as full 3-D methods generally require enormous computational resources. Infrasound propagation is often simulated with a second-order finite difference scheme. This lowest-order finite-difference scheme is robust and straightforward to implement complex boundary conditions, but the solution includes large error with numerical dispersion and dissipation. This large numerical error may make the second-order finite-difference not optimal for long range infrasound propagation modeling as the numerical dispersion degrades the accuracy of the solution unacceptably. Here, we developed a high-order finite-difference solver for long-range infrasound simulation. The high-order scheme is particularly popular for linear wave modeling in aeroacoustics owing to its low-dispersive and low-dissipative behavior. We develop and evaluate a high-order finite difference scheme in 2-D axisymmetric coordinates. The axisymmetry allows to approximate 3-D spherical sound propagation and amplitude attenuation by a 2-D method. AC2Dr is developed to simulate infrasound propagation in realistic atmosphere, but can be used for linear acoustic waves in general materials with background flow. AC2Dr in an axisymmetric coordinates allows for spherical radiation of acoustic waves from compact sources.

Sjogreen, Bjorn↗

Dispatch optimization of electric thermal energy storage within System Advisor Model

A stand-alone electric thermal energy storage (ETES) system converts low-value electricity into heat using resistance heating elements. During periods of high-value electricity, an ETES system uses a thermodynamic power cycle to convert stored thermal energy back to electricity. These dispatchable systems derive value from their ability to store energy when prices are low and generate electricity when prices are favorable, i.e., energy arbitrage. Consequently, dispatch optimization of system operations, through maximizing revenue subject to system constraints, is essential to evaluate the economic value of a particular system design. While stand-alone ETES systems offer potential advantages as dispatchable grid storage technologies, there is a lack of a neutral third-party, publicly available, open-source model to evaluate the performance, dispatch, and financial viability of these systems. To address this problem, we have developed a techno-economic model for stand-alone ETES systems, within National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) System Advisor Model (SAM). We implement a mixed-integer linear program to determine an ETES optimal operating schedule that maximizes electricity sales less maintenance costs caused by operation and cycling given temporal-varying grid electricity prices. Our contributions include a mixed-integer linear program for energy arbitrage of an ETES system, an ETES performance model through a publicly-available software (i.e., SAM), and an exercise of our model through case studies that compare ETES operational strategies and annual financial metrics. With our dispatch optimization model, we were able to improve revenue by 20% compared to a myopic heuristic while reducing the operational cost of the ETES system through decreases in cycle starts, cycles per day, and heater starts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) (V.3.1) (Technical Reference Manual)

The HyRAM software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of hydrogen safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM includes generic probabilities for hydrogen equipment failures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and experimentally validated first-order models of hydrogen release and flame physics. HyRAM integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet res, overpressure effects from deflagrations), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM is developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the U.S. Department of Energy to increase access to technical data about hydrogen safety and to enable the use of that data to support development and revision of national and international codes and standards. HyRAM is a research software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM version 3.1. There have been several impactful updates since version 3.0. HyRAM 3.1 contains a correction to use the volume fraction for two-phase speed of sound calculations; this only affects cryogenic releases in which two-phase ow (vapor and liquid) is predicted in the orifice. Other changes include clarifications that inputs for tank pressure should be given in absolute pressure, not gauge pressure. Additionally, the interface now rejects invalid inputs to probability distributions, and the less accurate single-point radiative source model selection was removed from the interface.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Refreshing Waste Tracking Software for the 2020's - 20059

The Waste Compliance and Tracking System (WCATS) is a software application designed to manage waste operations from cradle to grave. The system provides the support needed for characterization, generation, processing, and shipment of all waste generated or stored at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Waste is tracked with task records for containers in real-time via both desktop and mobile device applications. The software allows application administrators to configure sites with appropriate limits for Pu-239 equivalent Curies (PE-Ci), fissile gram equivalents (FGEs), volume limits, as well as custom limits for site-specific technical safety requirements (TSRs). WCATS was developed based on a need at Los Alamos National Laboratory for a modern, customizable waste tracking system that could support many different waste types. The application is built using Oracle{sup R} database and Oracle{sup R} ADF Swing application framework. The technologies and software frameworks selected for the system were finalized in 2006. Although Oracle{sup R} Database has proven to be robust, the user interface and application framework interface with the database have been deprecated and need to be replaced. The technologies selected for modernization follow the open-source model, which allows the WCATS team to more easily recruit developers, improve the speed of development, and ease the deployment and adoption of the system. The tools that support the re-engineering effort are Vue.js{sup R}, a JavaScript{sup R} framework, and Spring Boot{sup R}, an API (application programming interface) development tool written in Java{sup R}. An API allows for simplified communication from the database to the user interface of the application. In addition, legacy Crystal Reports{sup R} will be replaced with reports developed with the open source Pentaho{sup TM}f Report Designer community edition. Because the application uses HTML and JavaScript{sup R}, it builds upon tools that have been used for many years in web development. These tools have large community support and their proven track record will ensure that enhancements to WCATS can continue for years to come. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗