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At least 127 records · Page 7

Quantifying spatial and vertical variations in soil C:N relationships in permafrost-affected landscapes

Permafrost regions are experiencing rapid changes that affect carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles, with implications for vegetation dynamics and gas exchanges with the atmosphere. Soil C:N ratio is a key indicator of organic matter quality, yet spatial estimates of N stocks and C:N ratios lag behind those for C. We used quantile regression forests to compare direct and indirect digital soil mapping approaches for predicting soil C:N ratios at 0–30, 30–60, and 60–100 cm depths across a latitudinal transect in Alaska. The indirect approach – deriving C:N from separately predicted C and N stocks – outperformed direct mapping for the surface layer (0–30 cm), while direct mapping was marginally better at greater depths. However, prediction accuracy decreased with depth for both methods. Temperature and topography were the most important predictors. Both approaches overestimated low and underestimated high C:N ratios, with direct mapping showing greater bias. Our results underscore the challenges of modeling C:N ratios in heterogeneous, data-sparse permafrost soils, but also suggest that indirect mapping holds promise if supported by more extensive datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Integrated top-down process and voxel-based microstructure modeling for Ti-6Al-4V in laser wire direct energy deposition process

Laser-wire metal additive manufacturing (AM) is one of the ideal direct energy deposition (DED) processes for creating large-scale parts with a medium level of complexity. However, the DED process involves complex thermal signatures and wide length scales making the fabrication of realistic AM components and part qualification often reliant on experimental trial-and-error optimization. While experimental measurements over the full volume of a part are valuable and necessary, measuring the entire area of a part is significantly laborious and practically infeasible, particularly for large parts in terms of cost and rapid qualification. Therefore, in this work, we developed an effective thermal and microstructure modeling framework based on the Johnson–Mehl-Avrami-Kolmogorov (JMAK) and Koistinen & Marburger (KM) models through a top-down approach that considers plate distortion-affected thermal profiles. A voxel-by-voxel simulation method is used to predict individual phase fractions of Ti-6Al-4 V. The predicted results were validated through detailed metallurgical measurements. A combined voxel-by-voxel approach with a sparse data reconstruction technique produced a near-perfect reconstruction of the original data. This approach anticipates a significant reduction in data points and computation time and resources. Lastly, we conclude with potential extensions of this work to other modeling efforts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

GenAI4UQ: A software for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification using conditional generative AI

We introduce GenAI4UQ, a software package for forward and inverse uncertainty quantification in model calibration, parameter estimation, and ensemble forecasting. GenAI4UQ leverages a generative AI-based conditional modeling framework to address limitations of traditional inverse modeling techniques, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. By replacing computationally intensive iterative processes with a direct, learned mapping, GenAI4UQ enables efficient calibration of input parameters and generation of predictions directly from observations. The software supports rapid ensemble forecasting with robust uncertainty quantification while maintaining computational and storage efficiency. Built-in auto-tuning of hyperparameters simplifies model training, ensuring accessibility for users with varying expertise. Its versatile conditional generative framework is applicable across diverse scientific domains. While GenAI4UQ offers significant advantages in flexibility and efficiency, users should interpret its uncertainty estimates with caution in data-sparse scenarios, as the model may overestimate uncertainty—an effect common to all surrogate-based approaches including MCMC with surrogate models. Despite this, GenAI4UQ transforms inverse modeling by providing a fast, reliable, and user-friendly solution. It empowers researchers and practitioners to quickly estimate parameter distributions and generate model predictions for new observations, facilitating efficient decision-making and advancing the state of uncertainty quantification in computational modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

APSO-enhanced algebraic derivative estimation approach for real-time traffic flow prediction on critical road sections during wildfire evacuation

In rapid-onset disaster scenarios such as wildfires, evacuation traffic often significantly deviates from historical patterns, rendering conventional data-driven forecasting methods less effective. To address this challenge, we propose an improved algebraic derivative estimation (ADE) incorporating particle swarm optimization (PSO) for real-time traffic flow prediction. Our approach dynamically adjusts the ADE prediction time window at each step by minimizing a cost function based on the mean and variance of accumulated forecasting errors within the window, thereby balancing bias and variability. We evaluate the method using traffic data from the January 2025 California wildfires, focusing on key road segments critical for large-scale evacuations. The results demonstrate that our approach surpasses established machine learning and deep learning models—XGBoost, LSTM, and GRU—in predictive accuracy and maintains high computational efficiency. Notably, the proposed method eliminates the need for offline model training. Moreover, rapid PSO-based tuning enables real-time deployment, which provides a crucial advantage in scenarios where evacuation timings and road closures change dynamically. In conclusion, these findings highlight the benefits of the PSO-enhanced ADE framework for emergency traffic management, where rapid, data-sparse forecasts are essential for effective evacuation planning.

Algebraic derivative estimation

Large spatiotemporal variability in aerosol properties over central Argentina during the CACTI field campaign

Abstract. Few field campaigns with extensive aerosol measurements have been conducted over continental areas in the Southern Hemisphere. To address this data gap and better understand the interactions of convective clouds and the surrounding environment, extensive in situ and remote sensing measurements were collected during the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign conducted between October 2018 and April 2019 over the Sierras de Córdoba range of central Argentina. This study describes measurements of aerosol number, size, composition, mixing state, and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) collected on the ground and from a research aircraft during 7 weeks of the campaign. Large spatial and multiday variations in aerosol number, size, composition, and CCN were observed due to transport from upwind sources controlled by mesoscale to synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. Large vertical wind shears, back trajectories, single-particle measurements, and chemical transport model predictions indicate that different types of emissions and source regions, including biogenic emissions and biomass burning from the Amazon and anthropogenic emissions from Chile and eastern Argentina, contribute to aerosols observed during CACTI. Repeated aircraft measurements near the boundary layer top reveal strong spatial and temporal variations in CCN and demonstrate that understanding the complex co-variability of aerosol properties and clouds is critical to quantify the impact of aerosol–cloud interactions. In addition to quantifying aerosol properties in this data-sparse region, these measurements will be valuable to evaluate predictions over the midlatitudes of South America and improve parameterized aerosol processes in local, regional, and global models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Improvement of synoptic scale moisture and wind field analyses using the Nimbus 4 THIR 6.7 micron observations

The Nimbus 4 temperature-humidity infrared radiometer (THIR) monitors radiation in the 6.5 to 7.2 micron water vapor absorption with a 23 kilometer spatial resolution at the sub-satellite point. Radiation monitored in this spectral region results primarily from emission in the 250 to 500 millibar region of the upper troposphere. The THIR 6.7 micron observations are readily available in photofacsimile imagery form which shows very distinctive patterns associated with spatial variations in atmospheric water vapor. These radiometric observations were combined in several instances with moisture values measured in the upper troposphere by the standard radiosonde network. In each instance, the result is a much more consistent analysis showing increased spatial detail that agrees with the radiometric observations and does not compromise the conventional data. The improved moisture analyses show relatively dry and moist tongues that are very difficult or impossible to infer from the conventional data alone. The patterns in the moisture fields can be tracked over 12 and 24 hour periods. In addition, by keeping in mind the advective properties of the moisture field, success was achieved in improving streamline analyses at the 400 mb level over data sparse regions on a global scale.

Steranko, J.

Improvement of synoptic scale moisture and wind field analyses using the Nimbus 4 THIR 6.7-micron observations.

Discussion of some examples demonstrating that water vapor channel imagery from meteorological satellites, particularly Nimbus 4, can be quite helpful in improving moisture and wind analyses. Satellite imagery is shown to make possible the extrapolation of conventional measurements into data-sparse regions and the introduction of considerably greater detail into analyses of meterological parameters. In addition, the wide-area synoptic coverage of satellites can shed light on the interconnections of tropical and midlatitude systems discernible in the upper troposphere.

Steranka, J.

Remote sensing of the atmosphere from environmental satellites

The paper outlines the basis of remote sensing in satellite meteorology, the evolution of remote sensors, examples of practical applications, and a prospectus of future developments. The meteorological satellites use instrumentation sensitive to different regions of the electromagnetic spectrum to observe and measure atmospheric and surface properties. In the ultraviolet, solar variability is measured and total atmospheric ozone determined. In the visible, imagery of cloud systems provides better location of storms in data-sparse areas, observes ice and snow boundaries, and monitors floods. Capabilities of microwave imagery are discussed along with successful uses of geosynchronous satellites. Future environmental satellite programs are discussed in some detail, including GARP, TIROS-N and CLIMSAT.

Allison, L. J.

A preliminary assessment of the accuracy of selected meteorological parameters determined from Nimbus 6 satellite profile data

Published rms errors in rawinsonde data and discrepancies between satellite and rawinsonde profile data for temperature, dewpoint temperature, mixing ratio, and wind speed. Satellite rms errors were found to be 2 to 3 times as large as those for rawinsonde data. Gradients of the preceding parameters were computed for both rawinsonde and satellite data and compared with means and near extreme values computed from the AVE 2 and AVE 4 experiments. In all cases, it was found that satellite data can be used to determine with relatively good accuracy the near extreme gradients but not those whose value does not exceed the average. Synoptic charts were prepared to show that patterns of temperature could be determined with relatively good accuracy, while those of dew point were not as good as those for temperature. Winds represented by cloud motion vectors (satellite winds) were compared with rawinsonde winds, and it was found that large gaps exist in satellite values for a given pressure level and that errors in the satellite determined concluded that satellite profile data are very useful in synoptic analysis, particularly in data sparse regions as well as regions where near extreme gradients exist in the measured parameters.

Scoggins, J. R.

Subjective evaluation of the combined influence of satellite temperature sounding data and increased model resolution on numerical weather forecasting

The present evaluation is concerned with (1) the significance of prognostic differences resulting from the inclusion of satellite-derived temperature soundings, (2) how specific differences between the SAT and NOSAT prognoses evolve, and (3) comparison of two experiments using the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences general circulation model. The subjective evaluation indicates that the beneficial impact of sounding data is enhanced with increased resolution. It is suggested that satellite sounding data posses valuable information content which at times can correct gross analysis errors in data sparse regions.

Atlas, R.

Sensitivity of wind analyses to barotropic energetics during summer

Three analysis schemes - the extended correction method of the University of Hawaii at Manoa (UHM), the National Meteorological Center (NMC) Hough analysis, and Sadler's subjective stream analysis (SUB) - were used to obtain grid-point winds using data for a five-day period in late summer, and barotropic energetics computations obtained using the three schemes for six limited regions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans were compared. Few differences were observed between UHM and NMC stream-function analyses, but significant differences were found in the wind fields and energetics obtained using the subjective method and the two objective methods in data-sparse regions. Major features in the local barotropic criteria field were found to be less sensitive to the analysis scheme used.

Sumi, A.

The state of the atmosphere as inferred from the FGGE satellite observing systems during SOP-1

The statistical properties, and coverage, of satellite temperature sounding data are described. Tropical regions are observed every two days, extratropics from one to four times a day. Oceans are covered two to three times a day. Asynoptic coverage is comparable to the U.S. rawinsonde network twice daily coverage. Lack of ground truth for data sparse areas makes accuracy difficult to assess. The rms differences of layer mean temperatures obtained from collocating rawinsonde observations with satellite temperature profiles in space and time differ from rms differences of layer mean satellite temperature soundings. The FGGE satellite systems can infer the three dimensional motion field and improve the representation of the large scale state of the atmosphere.

Halem, M.

Optimal interpolation and the Kalman filter

The estimation theory of stochastic-dynamic systems is described and used in a numerical study of optimal interpolation. The general form of data assimilation methods is reviewed. The Kalman-Bucy, KB filter, and optimal interpolation (OI) filters are examined for effectiveness in performance as gain matrices using a one-dimensional form of the shallow-water equations. Control runs in the numerical analyses were performed for a ten-day forecast in concert with the OI method. The effects of optimality, initialization, and assimilation were studied. It was found that correct initialization is necessary in order to localize errors, especially near boundary points. Also, the use of small forecast error growth rates over data-sparse areas was determined to offset inaccurate modeling of correlation functions near boundaries.

Cohn, S.

Megaregolith thickness, heat flow, and the bulk composition of the Moon

Models developed to assess the effects of megaregolith on lunar thermal evolution are discussed. It is confirmed that the two sites where lunar heat flow was measured are probably unrepresentative, with heat flows about 25% higher than regional averages, due to focussing of heat flow towards regions with thin megaregolith. Numerous lines of evidence indicate that the megaregolith is generally 2 to 3 km thick under highlands (which cover about 83% of the total lunar surface), and 1 km thick under maria. In most models, megaregolith thickness is assumed to be roughly 6x greater over highlands than over maria. Based on sparse data for porosity among lunar rock types, and the correlation between thermal conductivity and porosity, it is assumed that megaregolith conductivity is roughly 20 kiloerg s(-1)cm(-1)K(-1), and bedrock conductivity is roughly 7x greater. It is also found that insulation by megaregolith exacerbates the problem of reconciling modest temperatures inferred for the (present) matle with a high rate of heat production; an upper limit of 30 ng/g for the bulk-Moon U content can be derived from this constraint alone.

Warren, P. H.

Megaregolith thickness, heat flow, and the bulk composition of the moon

Models developed to assess the effects of megaregolith on lunar thermal evolution are discussed. It is confirmed that the two sites where lunar heat flow was measured are probably unrepresentative, with heat flows about 25 percent higher than regional averages, due to focussing of heat flow towards regions with thin megaregolith. Numerous lines of evidence indicate that the megaregolith is generally 2 to 3 km thick under highlands (which cover about 83 percent of the total lunar surface), and 1 km thick under maria. In most models, megaregolith thickness is assumed to be roughly 6x greater over highlands than over maria. Based on sparse data for porosity among lunar rock types, and the correlation between thermal conductivity and porosity, it is assumed that megaregolith conductivity is roughly 20 kiloerg s(-1)cm(-1)K(-1), and bedrock conductivity is roughly 7x greater. It is also found that insulation by megaregolith exacerbates the problem of reconciling modest temperatures inferred for the (present) mantle with a high rate of heat production; an upper limit of 30 ng/g for the bulk-Moon U content can be derived from this constraint alone.

Rasmussen, K. L.

Atmospheric water distribution in a midlatitude cyclone observed by the Seasat Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer

Patterns in the horizontal distribution of integrated water vapor, integrated liquid water and rainfall rate derived from the Seasat Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) during a September 10-12, 1978 North Pacific cyclone are studied. These patterns are compared with surface analyses, ship reports, radiosonde data, and GOES-West infrared satellite imagery. The SMMR data give a unique view of the large mesoscale structure of a midlatitude cyclone. The water vapor distribution is found to have characteristic patterns related to the location of the surface fronts throughout the development of the cyclone. An example is given to illustrate that SMMR data could significantly improve frontal analysis over data-sparse oceanic regions. The distribution of integrated liquid water agrees qualitatively well with corresponding cloud patterns in satellite imagery and appears to provide a means to distinguish where liquid water clouds exist under a cirrus shield. Ship reports of rainfall intensity agree qualitatively very well with SMMR-derived rainrates. Areas of mesoscale rainfall, on the order of 50 km x 50 km or greater are detected using SMMR derived rainrates.

Mcmurdie, L. A.

Tropical Pacific moisture variability

Research objectives are to: (1) describe the synoptic scale variability of moisture over the tropical Pacific Ocean; (2) describe the systems leading to this variability; and (3) develop and implement satellite analysis procedures to facilitate (1) and (2) over the data sparse Pacific.

Mcguirk, James P.

The role of topography in geodetic gravity field modelling

Masses associated with the topography, bathymetry, and its isostatic compensation are a dominant source of gravity field variations, especially at shorter wavelengths. On global scales the topographic/isostatic effects are also significant, except for the lowest harmonics. In practice, though, global effects need not be taken into account as such effects are included in the coefficients of the geopotential reference fields. On local scales, the short-wavelength gravity variations due to the topography may, in rugged terrain, be an order of magnitude larger than other effects. In such cases, explicit or implicit terrain reduction procedures are mandatory in order to obtain good prediction results. Such effects may be computed by space-domain integration or by fast Fourier transformation (FFT) methods. Numerical examples are given for areas of the Canadian Rockies. In principle, good knowledge of the topographic densities is required to produce the smoothest residual field. Densities may be determined from sample measurements or by gravimetric means, but both are somewhat troublesome methods in practice. The use of a standard density, e.g., 2.67 g/cu cm, may often yield satisfactory results and may be put within a consistent theoretical framework. The independence of density assumptions is the key point of the classical Molodensky approach to the geodetic boundary value problem. The Molodensky solutions take into account that land gravity field observations are done on a non-level surface. Molodensky's problem may be solved by integral expansions or more effective FFT methods, but the solution should not be intermixed with the use of terrain reductions. The methods are actually complimentary and may both be required in order to obtain the smoothest possible signal, least prone to aliasing and other effects coming from sparse data coverage, typical of rugged topography.

Forsberg, R.