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The study will develop mathematical and numerical models of the turbulent ignition process that comprises plasma species interaction with turbulence and principles of ignition kernel growth or extinction based on a flamelet modeling approach.
Turbulent non-premixed stoichiometric methane-air flames modeled with reduced kinetics have been studied using the direct numerical simulation approach. The simulations include realistic chemical kinetics, and the molecular transport is modeled with constant Lewis numbers for individual species. The effect of turbulence on the internal flame structure and extinction characteristics of methane-air flames is evaluated. Consistent with earlier DNS with simple one-step chemistry, the flame is wrinkled and in some regions extinguished by the turbulence, while the turbulence is weakened in the vicinity of the flame due to a combination of dilatation and an increase in kinematic viscosity. Unlike previous results, reignition is observed in the present simulations. Lewis number effects are important in determining the local stoichiometry of the flame. The results presented in this work are preliminary but demonstrate the feasibility of incorporating reduced kinetics for the oxidation of methane with direct numerical simulations of homogeneous turbulence to evaluate the limitations of various levels of reduction in the kinetics and to address the formation of thermal and prompt NO(x).
The incompleteness of the fossil record hinders the inference of evolutionary rates and patterns. Here, we derive relationships among true taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and observed taxonomic ranges. We use these relationships to estimate original distributions of taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and completeness (proportion of taxa preserved), given only the observed ranges. No data on occurrences within the ranges of taxa are required. When preservation is random and the original distribution of durations is exponential, the inference of durations, preservability, and completeness is exact. However, reasonable approximations are possible given non-exponential duration distributions and temporal and taxonomic variation in preservability. Thus, the approaches we describe have great potential in studies of taphonomy, evolutionary rates and patterns, and genealogy. Analyses of Upper Cambrian-Lower Ordovician trilobite species, Paleozoic crinoid genera, Jurassic bivalve species, and Cenozoic mammal species yield the following results: (1) The preservation probability inferred from stratigraphic ranges alone agrees with that inferred from the analysis of stratigraphic gaps when data on the latter are available. (2) Whereas median durations based on simple tabulations of observed ranges are biased by stratigraphic resolution, our estimates of median duration, extinction rate, and completeness are not biased.(3) The shorter geologic ranges of mammalian species relative to those of bivalves cannot be attributed to a difference in preservation potential. However, we cannot rule out the contribution of taxonomic practice to this difference. (4) In the groups studied, completeness (proportion of species [trilobites, bivalves, mammals] or genera [crinoids] preserved) ranges from 60% to 90%. The higher estimates of completeness at smaller geographic scales support previous suggestions that the incompleteness of the fossil record reflects loss of fossiliferous rock more than failure of species to enter the fossil record in the first place.
KORUS-AQ was an international cooperative air quality field study in South Korea that measured local and remote sources of air pollution affecting the Korean Peninsula during May–June 2016. Some of the largest aerosol mass concentrations were measured during a Chinese haze transport event (24 May). Air quality forecasts using the WRF-Chem model with aerosol optical depth (AOD) data assimilation captured AOD during this pollution episode but overpredicted surface particulate matter concentrations in South Korea, especially PM 2.5 , often by a factor of 2 or larger. Analysis revealed multiple sources of model deficiency related to the calculation of optical properties from aerosol mass that explain these discrepancies. Using in situ observations of aerosol size and composition as inputs to the optical properties calculations showed that using a low-resolution size bin representation (four bins) underestimates the efficiency with which aerosols scatter and absorb light (mass extinction efficiency). Besides using finer-resolution size bins (8–16 bins), it was also necessary to increase the refractive indices and hygroscopicity of select aerosol species within the range of values reported in the literature to achieve better consistency with measured values of the mass extinction efficiency (6.7 m 2 g –1 observed average) and light-scattering enhancement factor (ƒ(RH)) due to aerosol hygroscopic growth (2.2 observed average). Furthermore, an evaluation of the optical properties obtained using modeled aerosol properties revealed the inability of sectional and modal aerosol representations in WRF-Chem to properly reproduce the observed size distribution, with the models displaying a much wider accumulation mode. Other model deficiencies included an underestimate of organic aerosol density (1.0 g cm –3 in the model vs. observed average of 1.5 g cm –3 ) and an overprediction of the fractional contribution of submicron inorganic aerosols other than sulfate, ammonium, nitrate, chloride, and sodium corresponding to mostly dust (17 %–28 % modeled vs. 12 % estimated from observations). These results illustrate the complexity of achieving an accurate model representation of optical properties and provide potential solutions that are relevant to multiple disciplines and applications such as air quality forecasts, health impact assessments, climate projections, solar power forecasts, and aerosol data assimilation.
KORUS-AQ was an international cooperative air quality field study in South Korea that measured local and remote sources of air pollution affecting the Korean Peninsula during May–June 2016. Some of the largest aerosol mass concentrations were measured during a Chinese haze transport event (24 May). Air quality forecasts using the WRF-Chem model with aerosol optical depth (AOD) data assimilation captured AOD during this pollution episode but overpredicted surface particulate matter concentrations in South Korea, especially PM2.5, often by a factor of 2 or larger. Analysis revealed multiple sources of model deficiency related to the calculation of optical properties from aerosol mass that explain these discrepancies. Using in situ observations of aerosol size and composition as inputs to the optical properties calculations showed that using a low-resolution size bin representation (four bins) underestimates the efficiency with which aerosols scatter and absorb light (mass extinction efficiency). Besides using finer-resolution size bins (8–16 bins), it was also necessary to increase the refractive indices and hygroscopicity of select aerosol species within the range of values reported in the literature to achieve better consistency with measured values of the mass extinction efficiency (6.7 m2 g−1 observed average) and light-scattering enhancement factor (f(RH)) due to aerosol hygroscopic growth (2.2 observed average). Furthermore, an evaluation of the optical properties obtained using modeled aerosol properties revealed the inability of sectional and modal aerosol representations in WRF-Chem to properly reproduce the observed size distribution, with the models displaying a much wider accumulation mode. Other model deficiencies included an underestimate of organic aerosol density (1.0 g cm−3 in the model vs. observed average of 1.5 g cm−3) and an overprediction of the fractional contribution of submicron inorganic aerosols other than sulfate, ammonium, nitrate, chloride, and sodium corresponding to mostly dust (17 %–28 % modeled vs. 12 % estimated from observations). These results illustrate the complexity of achieving an accurate model representation of optical properties and provide potential solutions that are relevant to multiple disciplines and applications such as air quality forecasts, health impact assessments, climate projections, solar power forecasts, and aerosol data assimilation.
Emission from the J = 1-0 transition of carbon monoxide has been mapped over an area of 40 by 55 arcmin in cloud L134, and visual extinctions over the entire cloud have been obtained by means of star counts. Line intensities of at least 2 K are observable down to an extinction level of about one magnitude. From observations of the J = 1-0 transition of the (C-13)O isotopic species at 18 locations in the cloud, a linear correlation is found between the local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) column densities of (C-13)O and magnitudes of visual extinction.
This research deals with reduced-gravity combustion of bi-component droplets initially in the mm size range or larger. The primary objectives of the research are to study the effects of droplet internal flows, thermal and solutal Marangoni stresses, and species volatility differences on liquid species transport and overall combustion phenomena (e.g., gas-phase unsteadiness, burning rates, sooting, radiation, and extinction). The research program utilizes a reduced gravity environment so that buoyancy effects are rendered negligible. Use of large droplets also facilitates visualization of droplet internal flows, which is important for this research. In the experiments, droplets composed of low- and high-volatility species are burned. The low-volatility components are initially present in small amounts. As combustion of a droplet proceeds, the liquid surface mass fraction of the low-volatility component will increase with time, resulting in a sudden and temporary decrease in droplet burning rates as the droplet rapidly heats to temperatures close to the boiling point of the low-volatility component. This decrease in burning rates causes a sudden and temporary contraction of the flame. The decrease in burning rates and the flame contraction can be observed experimentally. Measurements of burning rates as well as the onset time for flame contraction allow effective liquid-phase species diffusivities to be calculated, e.g., using asymptotic theory. It is planned that droplet internal flows will be visualized in flight and ground-based experiments. In this way, effective liquid species diffusivities can be related to droplet internal flow characteristics. This program is a continuation of extensive ground-based experimental and theoretical research on bi-component droplet combustion that has been ongoing for several years. The focal point of this program is a flight experiment (Bi-Component Droplet Combustion Experiment, BCDCE). This flight experiment is under development. However, supporting ground-based studies have been performed. Some of the most recent ground-based research is summarized.
This research deals with reduced-gravity combustion of bi-component droplets initially in the mm size range or larger. The primary objectives of the research are to study the effects of droplet internal flows, thermal and solutal Marangoni stresses, and species volatility differences on liquid species transport and overall combustion phenomena (e.g., gas-phase unsteadiness, burning rates, sooting, radiation, and extinction). The research program utilizes a reduced-gravity environment so that buoyancy effects are rendered negligible. Use of large droplets also facilitates visualization of droplet internal flows, which is important for this research. In the experiments, droplets composed of low- and high-volatility species are burned. The low-volatility components are initially present in small amounts. As combustion of a droplet proceeds, the liquid surface mass fraction of the low-volatility component will increase with time, resulting in a sudden and temporary decrease in droplet burning rates as the droplet rapidly heats to temperatures close to the boiling point of the low-volatility component. This decrease in burning rates causes a sudden and temporary contraction of the flame. The decrease in burning rates and the flame contraction can be observed experimentally. Measurements of burning rates as well as the onset time for flame contraction allow effective liquid-phase species diffusivities to be calculated, e.g., using asymptotic theory. It is planned that droplet internal flows will be visualized in future flight and ground-based experiments. In this way, effective liquid species diffusivities can be related to droplet internal flow characteristics. This program is a continuation of extensive ground based experimental and theoretical research on bi-component droplet combustion that has been ongoing for several years. The focal point of this program is a flight experiment (Bi-Component Droplet Combustion Experiment, BCDCE). This flight experiment is under development. However, supporting studies have been performed. Because of space limitations, only some of the research performed over the last two years (since the 5th Microgravity Combustion Workshop) is summarized here.
This research deals with reduced-gravity combustion of bi-component droplets initially in the mm size range or larger. The primary objectives of the research are to study the effects of droplet internal flows, thermal and solutal Marangoni stresses, and species volatility differences on liquid species transport and overall combustion phenomena (e.g., gas-phase unsteadiness, burning rates, sooting, radiation, and extinction). The research program utilizes a reduced-gravity environment so that buoyancy effects are rendered negligible. Use of large droplets also facilitates visualization of droplet internal flows, which is important for this research. In the experiments, droplets composed of low- and high-volatility species are burned. The low-volatility components are initially present in small amounts. As combustion of a droplet proceeds, the liquid surface mass fraction of the low-volatility component will increase with time, resulting in a sudden and temporary decrease in droplet burning rates as the droplet rapidly heats to temperatures close to the boiling point of the low-volatility component. This decrease in burning rates causes a sudden and temporary contraction of the flame. The decrease in burning rates and the flame contraction can be observed experimentally. Measurements of burning rates as well as the onset time for flame contraction allow effective liquid-phase species diffusivities to be calculated, e.g., using asymptotic theory. It is planned that droplet internal flows will be visualized in flight and ground-based experiments. In this way, effective liquid species diffusivities can be related to droplet internal flow characteristics. This program is a continuation of extensive ground based experimental and theoretical research on bi-component droplet combustion that has been ongoing for several years. The focal point of this program is a flight experiment (Bi-Component Droplet Combustion Experiment, BCDCE). This flight experiment is under development. However, supporting ground-based studies have been performed. This ground-based research is summarized below.
Palynological studies deal with fossil reproductive bodies that were produced by fully functioning plants, whereas most faunal studies are based on death assemblages. Therefore, changes in pollen and spore assemblages cannot be used directly as evidence of catastrophic mass killings but only to indicate changes in ecological conditions. The impact of the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary event on terrestrial plant communities is illustrated by the degree, rate and selectivity of change. As in most classical palynological studies, the degree of change is expressed in terms of relative abundance and changes in species diversity. It is recognized that sampling interval and continuity of the rock record within individual sections can affect the percieved rate of change. Even taking these factors into account, a gradual change in relative abundance and multiple levels of apparent extinctions, associated with the interval bounding the K-T boundary, can be demonstrated. Climatic change, which locally exceeds the tolerance of individual species, and the possible loss of a group of pollinating agents are examined as possible explanations for the selectivity of apparent extinctions and/or locally truncated occurrences. The aspects of change are demonstrated with data from four different K-T boundary localities in Western Canada between paleolatitudes 60 and 75 deg north. Together, the four localities discussed allow changes imposed by latitude and differences in the depositional environment be isolated from the boundary event itself which is reflected by the truncated ranges of several species throughout the region of study. What must be recognized is that variations in the response of vegetation to the K-T boundary event(s) occurred throughout the Western Interior basin.
In this study, gradient free regime identification (GFRI) is applied to 1D Raman/Rayleigh/LIF measurements of temperature and major species from the intermediate velocity case of the Sydney piloted inhomogeneous jet flame series to better understand the structure of reaction zones and the downstream evolution of multi-regime characteristics. The GFRI approach allows local reaction zones to be detected and characterized as premixed, dominantly premixed, multi-regime, dominantly non-premixed, or non-premixed flame structures, based on flame markers (mixture fraction, chemical mode, and heat release rate) derived from the experimental data. The statistics of chemical mode zero-crossings, which mark premixed reaction zones, and the relative populations of flame structures are shown to be sensitive to the state of mixing in the near field of the flame and to the level of local extinction farther downstream. Multi-regime structures, where premixed and non-premixed reaction zones occur in close proximity and both contribute to overall heat release, account for nearly half the total population at streamwise locations within the first several jet diameters. There is a rapid transition within the near field whereby the relative population of non-premixed and dominantly non-premixed structures grows from 0.05 to nearly 0.5, and the population of premixed and dominantly premixed structures decreases correspondingly as fluid entering the reaction zone becomes progressively fuel-rich. Local extinction and re-ignition bring a resurgence in premixed-type structures, many of which occur at fuel-lean conditions. There are also modest populations of multi-regime structures, having chemical mode zero-crossings at lean conditions, which would not exist in a fully burning jet flame.
When emerging pathogens encounter new host species for which they are poorly adapted, they must evolve to escape extinction. Pathogens experience selection on traits at multiple scales, including replication rates within host individuals and transmissibility between hosts. We analyze a stochastic model linking pathogen growth and competition within individuals to transmission between individuals. Our analysis reveals a new factor, the cross-scale reproductive number of a mutant virion, that quantifies how quickly mutant strains increase in frequency when they initially appear in the infected host population. This cross-scale reproductive number combines with viral mutation rates, single-strain reproductive numbers, and transmission bottleneck width to determine the likelihood of evolutionary emergence, and whether evolution occurs swiftly or gradually within chains of transmission. We find that wider transmission bottlenecks facilitate emergence of pathogens with short-term infections, but hinder emergence of pathogens exhibiting cross-scale selective conflict and long-term infections. Furthermore, our results provide a framework to advance the integration of laboratory, clinical, and field data in the context of evolutionary theory, laying the foundation for a new generation of evidence-based risk assessment of emergence threats.
Within the framework of the AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) initiative, the state-of-the-art modelling of aerosol optical properties is assessed from 14 global models participating in the phase III control experiment (AP3). The models are similar to CMIP6/AerChemMIP Earth System Models (ESMs) and provide a robust multi-model ensemble. Inter-model spread of aerosol species lifetimes and emissions appears to be similar to that of mass extinction coefficients (MECs), suggesting that aerosol optical depth (AOD) uncertainties are associated with a broad spectrum of parameterised aerosol processes. Total AOD is approximately the same as in AeroCom phase I (AP1) simulations. However, we find a 50 % decrease in the optical depth (OD) of black carbon (BC), attributable to a combination of decreased emissions and lifetimes. Relative contributions from sea salt (SS) and dust (DU) have shifted from being approximately equal in AP1 to SS contributing about 2∕3 of the natural AOD in AP3. This shift is linked with a decrease in DU mass burden, a lower DU MEC, and a slight decrease in DU lifetime, suggesting coarser DU particle sizes in AP3 compared to AP1. Relative to observations, the AP3 ensemble median and most of the participating models underestimate all aerosol optical properties investigated, that is, total AOD as well as fine and coarse AOD (AODf, AODc), Ångström exponent (AE), dry surface scattering (SCdry), and absorption (ACdry) coefficients. Compared to AERONET, the models underestimate total AOD by ca. 21 % ± 20 % (as inferred from the ensemble median and interquartile range). Against satellite data, the ensemble AOD biases range from −37 % (MODIS-Terra) to −16 % (MERGED-FMI, a multi-satellite AOD product), which we explain by differences between individual satellites and AERONET measurements themselves. Correlation coefficients (R) between model and observation AOD records are generally high (R>0.75), suggesting that the models are capable of capturing spatio-temporal variations in AOD. We find a much larger underestimate in coarse AODc (∼ −45 % ± 25 %) than in fine AODf (∼ −15 % ± 25 %) with slightly increased inter-model spread compared to total AOD. These results indicate problems in the modelling of DU and SS. The AODc bias is likely due to missing DU over continental land masses (particularly over the United States, SE Asia, and S. America), while marine AERONET sites and the AATSR SU satellite data suggest more moderate oceanic biases in AODc. Column AEs are underestimated by about 10 % ± 16 %. For situations in which measurements show AE > 2, models underestimate AERONET AE by ca. 35 %. In contrast, all models (but one) exhibit large overestimates in AE when coarse aerosol dominates (bias ca. +140 % if observed AE < 0.5). Simulated AE does not span the observed AE variability. These results indicate that models overestimate particle size (or underestimate the fine-mode fraction) for fine-dominated aerosol and underestimate size (or overestimate the fine-mode fraction) for coarse-dominated aerosol. This must have implications for lifetime, water uptake, scattering enhancement, and the aerosol radiative effect, which we can not quantify at this moment. Comparison against Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) in situ data results in mean bias and inter-model variations of −35 % ± 25 % and −20 % ± 18 % for SCdry and ACdry, respectively. The larger underestimate of SCdry than ACdry suggests the models will simulate an aerosol single scattering albedo that is too low. The larger underestimate of SCdry than ambient air AOD is consistent with recent findings that models overestimate scattering enhancement due to hygroscopic growth. The broadly consistent negative bias in AOD and surface scattering suggests an underestimate of aerosol radiative effects in current global aerosol models. Considerable inter-model diversity in the simulated optical properties is often found in regions that are, unfortunately, not or only sparsely covered by ground-based observations. This includes, for instance, the Sahara, Amazonia, central Australia, and the South Pacific. This highlights the need for a better site coverage in the observations, which would enable us to better assess the models, but also the performance of satellite products in these regions. Using fine-mode AOD as a proxy for present-day aerosol forcing estimates, our results suggest that models underestimate aerosol forcing by ca. −15 %, however, with a considerably large interquartile range, suggesting a spread between −35 % and +10 %.
The light scattered from leaves was measured as a function of view angle in the principal plane for yellow poplar, red oak, and red maple. The source was a parallel-polarized helium-neon laser. Yellow poplar leaves had the highest reflectance of the three species, which may have been due to its shorter palisade cells and more extensive spongy mesophyll. Prior to senescence, there was a significant decrease, but not total extinction, in the reflectance of the beam incident at 60 deg from nadir on the adaxial side of the leaves of all three species. Low-temperature SEM observations showed differences in the surface wax patterns among the three species but did not indicate a cause of the reflectance changes other than possibly the accumulation and aging of the wax.
In flame spreading in quiescent and low-velocity opposing flows, effects of surface reradiation and flame radiation are important in establishing the spread rate and whether the flame, once ignited, survives to steady spread or extinguishes after a time long compared to the ignition event. A reflight of the Solid Surface Combustion Experiment (SSCE), supported by modelling, demonstrates that for thick, flat fuels, the ultimate fate of the flame is extinction rather than steady spread. A mismatch between the thermal scale in the gas, driven by radiation, and the species diffusion scale, driven by mass diffusion, develops such that the high temperature regions of the flame are ultimately located in a region to which oxygen cannot be supplied at a sufficient rate to sustain reaction, and extinction occurs. Results of the experiment conducted on Space Shuttle mission STS 85 on 9 August 1997 are reviewed. For the flat surface geometry, while the hydrodynamic phenomena associated with opposed-flow flame spread may be treated two dimensionally, the radiative effects are three dimensional, and so modelling the radiative processes, with the mismatch in dimensionality, is difficult. The cylindrical geometry at least one long compared to the radius, provides a configuration in which the radiative processes for spread in the axial direction are two dimensional, thus simplifying the modelling. The cylindrical geometry allows for the development of more sophisticated radiative models without the complication of dimensionality concerns, e.g., discrete transfer, which is discussed in detail by Bundy (1998). Additionally, the cylindrical geometry results in a "focussing" of the heat transfer to the surface and may allow for steady spread for radii that for thick fuels of the same half-thickness there is no steady spread.
Throughout this study we focused on comparisons of CLAES and in situ measurements of ozone and aerosol extinction. Thus the comparison is between satellite data representative of large spatial regions and in situ data representative of nearly point samples. Both instruments provide vertical profiles, but the region of overlap is limited to between approximately 10 and 100 mb. CLAES Version 7 ozone measurements have been compared to electrochemical cell ozonesonde measurements over McMurdo Station, Antarctica (78 deg S, 167 deg E), Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica (66.7 deg S, 140 deg E), Laramie, Wyoming (41 deg N, 106 deg W), and Bear Island, Norway (74.3 deg N, 19 deg E). Comparisons were made between vertical ozone profiles, and between integrated column ozone over the region of overlap of the measurements. Comparisons using CLAES Version 8 data are underway. CLAES Version 8 aerosol extinction measurements at all wavelengths have also been compared to University of Wyoming aerosol extinctions over McMurdo Station, Antarctica, and over Laramie, Wyoming. Coincidences in all cases were determined by minimizing the distance between the CLAES observations and the surface station, and the time separation between the satellite and in situ measurements.
Counts of taxonomic diversity are the prevailing standards for documenting large-scale patterns of evolution in the fossil record. However, the secular pattern of relative ecological importance between the bryozoan clades Cyclostomata and Cheilostomata is not reflected fully in compilations of generic diversity or within-fauna species richness, and the delayed ecological recovery of the Cheilostomata after the mass extinction at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary is missed entirely. These observations demonstrate that evolutionary success and ecological dominance can be decoupled and profoundly different, even over tens of millions of years.
Movements of the celestial bodies in our solar system inspired Isaac Newton to work out his profound laws of gravitation and motion; with one or two notable exceptions, all of those objects move as Newton said they would. But normally harmonious orbital motion is accompanied by the risk of collision, which can be cataclysmic. The Earth s moon is thought to have been produced by such an event, and we recently witnessed magnificent bombardments of Jupiter by several pieces of what was once Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. Other comets or asteroids may have met the Earth with such violence that dinosaurs and other forms of life became extinct; it is this possibility that causes us to ask how the human species might avoid a similar catastrophe, and the answer requires a thorough understanding of orbital motion. The two red square flags with black square centers displayed are internationally recognized as a warning of an impending hurricane. Mariners and coastal residents who know the meaning of this symbol and the signs evident in the sky and ocean can act in advance to try to protect lives and property; someone who is unfamiliar with the warning signs or chooses to ignore them is in much greater jeopardy. Although collisions between Earth and large comets or asteroids occur much less frequently than landfall of a hurricane, it is imperative that we learn to identify the harbingers of such collisions by careful examination of an object s path. An accurate determination of the orbit of a comet or asteroid is necessary in order to know if, when, and where on the Earth s surface a collision will occur. Generally speaking, the longer the warning time, the better the chance of being able to plan and execute action to prevent a collision. The more accurate the determination of an orbit, the less likely such action will be wasted effort or, what is worse, an effort that increases rather than decreases the probability of a collision. Conditions necessary for a collision to occur are discussed, and warning times for long-period comets and near-Earth asteroids are presented.