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Experiences with Testing the Largest Ground System NASA Has Ever Built

In the 1980s, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) embarked upon a major Earth-focused program called Mission to Planet Earth. The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) was selected to manage and develop a key component - the Earth Observing System (EOS). The EOS consisted of four major missions designed to monitor the Earth. The missions included 4 spacecraft. Terra (launched December 1999), Aqua (launched May 2002), ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite, launched January 2003), and Aura (scheduled for launch January 2004). The purpose of these missions was to provide support for NASA s long-term research effort for determining how human-induced and natural changes affect our global environment. The EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS), a globally distributed, large-scale scientific system, was built to support EOS. Its primary function is to capture, collect, process, and distribute the most voluminous set of remotely sensed scientific data to date estimated to be 350 Gbytes per day. The EOSDIS is composed of a diverse set of elements with functional capabilities that require the implementation of a complex set of computers, high-speed networks, mission-unique equipment, and associated Information Technology (IT) software along with mission-specific software. All missions are constrained by schedule, budget, and staffing resources, and rigorous testing has been shown to be critical to the success of each mission. This paper addresses the challenges associated with the planning, test definition. resource scheduling, execution, and discrepancy reporting involved in the mission readiness testing of a ground system on the scale of EOSDIS. The size and complexity of the mission systems supporting the Aqua flight operations, for example, combined with the limited resources available, prompted the project to challenge the prevailing testing culture. The resulting success of the Aqua Mission Readiness Testing (MRT) program was due in no small measure to re-structuring the traditional programmatic and technical approach to a more efficient and robust program. Programmatically, it meant gaining the endorsement, commitment, and cooperation of the numerous subsystem element managers and other stakeholder organizations. Technically, it required an MRT program that was agile, could rapidly adapt to requirements changes, and was flexible in its overall approach. Furthermore, this paper addresses the following questions: 1. What are the key ingredients (e.g., test tools, organization) needed to conduct a successful MRT program? 2. What distinguishes EOS MRT from the traditional system testing approach? 3. Where should the focus of testing be since it is infeasible to test every element or subsystem? 4. How can MRT be applied effectively to other systems or missions? To provide answers to these questions, this paper relies heavily on real-life, hands-on experiences ("lessons learned") gained during mission readiness testing of the Terra ground system and, most recently, the Aqua and ICESat missions. Moreover, this paper explores how lessons learned were turned into lessons applied for the upcoming Aura mission. Although derived from the EOS missions, MRT techniques and strategies can be applied to enhance the testing of other missions.

Lehtonen, Ken↗

Principles to Products: Toward Realizing MOS 2.0

This is a report on the Operations Revitalization Initiative, part of the ongoing NASA-funded Advanced Multi-Mission Operations Systems (AMMOS) program. We are implementing products that significantly improve efficiency and effectiveness of Mission Operations Systems (MOS) for deep-space missions. We take a multi-mission approach, in keeping with our organization's charter to "provide multi-mission tools and services that enable mission customers to operate at a lower total cost to NASA." Focusing first on architectural fundamentals of the MOS, we review the effort's progress. In particular, we note the use of stakeholder interactions and consideration of past lessons learned to motivate a set of Principles that guide the evolution of the AMMOS. Thus guided, we have created essential patterns and connections (detailed in companion papers) that are explicitly modeled and support elaboration at multiple levels of detail (system, sub-system, element...) throughout a MOS. This architecture is realized in design and implementation products that provide lifecycle support to a Mission at the system and subsystem level. The products include adaptable multi-mission engineering documentation that describes essentials such as operational concepts and scenarios, requirements, interfaces and agreements, information models, and mission operations processes. Because we have adopted a model-based system engineering method, these documents and their contents are meaningfully related to one another and to the system model. This means they are both more rigorous and reusable (from mission to mission) than standard system engineering products. The use of models also enables detailed, early (e.g., formulation phase) insight into the impact of changes (e.g., to interfaces or to software) that is rigorous and complete, allowing better decisions on cost or technical trades. Finally, our work provides clear and rigorous specification of operations needs to software developers, further enabling significant gains in productivity.

AMMOS↗

LMI Automated Air Cargo Operations Market Research and Forecast

Air cargo companies and aircraft manufacturers are making significant investments to enable the movement of cargo via various levels of automated aircraft, such as aircraft with simplified operations requiring a pilot, remotely monitored or piloted aircraft, and fully autonomous aircraft. These investments will enable greater utilization of aircraft while unlocking new air markets traditionally served by ground transportation only. Many cargo companies and aerospace experts envision an operating environment where a single pilot can remotely pilot numerous aircraft for significant increases in aircraft utilization. The future operating environment is also expected to include air cargo companies flying smaller aircraft from airports and distribution centers outside of major U.S. cities directly to city centers, avoiding congested roads and increasing the velocity of cargo shipments, particularly those that are high-value, time-sensitive, and security sensitive (e.g., pharmaceuticals). These are just a few benefits and use cases cargo companies and aerospace experts see with the advancement of automated aircraft. To better understand industry’s direction, NASA asked the LMI team to research the forecasted market, timeline, risks, and opportunities for integrating unmanned air cargo vehicles into the National Airspace System (NAS) for the development and prioritization of the NASA Air Traffic Management Exploration’s research portfolio. To begin the market assessment, we gathered data via numerous interviews with key stakeholders and subject matter experts and literature reviews. We then incorporated the data into a custom-developed systems dynamics model and visualization dashboard. The systems dynamics model classifies the size of the market (e.g., overall fleet size of automated aircraft) for four distinct use cases over the next 20 years. The model projects the year in which various types of automated aircraft will enter the commercial cargo market based on our team’s collective research on when the aircraft will become viable due to manufacturing and certification timelines and the lifespan of current, traditional aircraft in service, to name a few factors. While this report defines our team’s estimated timeline of entry and growth, the model is dynamic—it enables NASA users to change variables based on future-year events. If the necessary technology does not mature in accordance with our assumptions, then NASA can change the entry of service point to a future year to evaluate the changes in market size in the out years. This flexibility will be key to deciding when and how NASA should invest in various areas.

air traffic management↗

Control and Non-Payload Communications Generation 1 Prototype Radio Flight Test Report

Unmanned aircraft (UA) represent a new capability that will provide a variety of services in the Government (public) and commercial (civil) aviation sectors. The growth of this potential industry has not yet been realized because of the lack of a common understanding of what is required to safely operate Unmanned Aircraft Systems in the National Airspace System (UAS in the NAS). The desire and ability to fly UA is of increasing urgency. The application of UA to perform national security, defense, scientific, and emergency management are driving the critical need for less restrictive access by UA to the NAS. Existing Federal Aviation Regulations, procedures, and technologies do not allow routine UA access to the NAS. Access to the NAS is hampered by challenges such as the lack of an onboard pilot to see and avoid other aircraft; the ability of a single pilot or operator to control multiple UA; the reliance on command and control (C2) links; the altitudes, speeds, and duration at which the aircraft fly; and the wide variation in UA size and performance. NASA is working with other Government agencies to provide solutions that reduce technical barriers and make access to the NAS routine. This goal will be accomplished through system-level integration of key concepts, technologies, or procedures and through demonstrations of these integrated capabilities in an operationally relevant environment. This project provides an opportunity to transition the acquired empirical data and knowledge to the Federal Aviation Administration and other stakeholders to help them define the requirements for routine UA access to the NAS.Radio communications channels for UA are currently managed through exceptions and use either Department of Defense frequencies for line-of-sight (LOS) and satellite-based communications links, low-power LOS links in amateur bands, or unlicensed Industrial/Scientific/Medical (ISM) frequencies. None of these frequency bands are designated for safety and regularity of flight. Only recently has radiofrequency (RF) spectrum been allocated by the International Telecommunications Union specifically for commercial UA C2, LOS communication (L-Band: 960 to 1164 MHz, and C-Band: 5030 to 5091 MHz). The safe and efficient integration of UA into the NAS requires the use of protected RF spectrum allocations and a new data communications system that is both secure and scalable to accommodate the potential growth of these new aircraft. Data communications for UA-referred to as control and non-payload communications (CNPC)-will be used to exchange information between a UA and a ground station (GS) to ensure safe, reliable, and effective UA flight operation. The focus of this effort is on validating and allocating new RF spectrum and data link communications to enable civil UA integration into the NAS. Through a cost-sharing cooperative agreement with Rockwell Collins, Inc., the NASA Glenn Research Center is exploring and performing the necessary development steps to realize a prototype UA CNPC system. These activities include investigating signal waveforms and access techniques, developing representative CNPC radio hardware, and executing relevant testing and validation activities. There is no intent to manufacture the CNPC end product, rather the goals are to study, demonstrate, and validate a typical CNPC system that will allow safe and efficient communications within the L-Band and C-Band spectrum allocations. The system is addressing initial "seed" requirements from RTCA, Inc., Special Committee 203 (SC-203) and is on a path to Federal Aviation Administration certification. This report provides results from the flight testing campaign of the Rockwell Collins Generation 1 prototype radio, referred hereafter as the "radio." The radio sets operate within the 960- to 977-MHz frequency band with both air and ground radios using identical hardware. Flight tests involved one aircraft and one GS. Results include discussion of aircraft flight paths and associated radio performance.

Shalkhauser, Kurt A.↗

Deep Space Human-Systems Research Recommendations for Future Human-Automation/Robotic Integration

Appropriate integration between automation and robotics systems and their human operators is essential for future space exploration. The Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Element of NASA’s Human Research Program requires a systematic understanding of the critical human-automation/robotic (HAR) integration, or HARI, design challenges for future space exploration. This document reports the results of a systematic assessment of the spaceflight-relevant HARI technologies and research topics addressing critical gaps in spaceflight-relevant HARI knowledge, and prioritizes research required for successful human performance and HAR integration. We reviewed relevant literature across the past ten years and interviewed ten subject matter experts to investigate the current state of HARI technology, challenges facing development, the state of HARI research across a wide range of fields, and opportunities for advancing the state of the art through directed research. This information was used to identify relevant HARI technologies and research topics, as well as factors to assess relative priority of HARI technologies. We worked with NASA stakeholders to weight the factors relevant to assessing HARI specific technologies. A multi-dimensional trade analysis was performed to objectively score HARI research topics and specific technologies to recommended investment priorities for NASA.

human-automation interaction↗

Connecting Federal Agencies to Satellite Earth Observations: NASA’s Satellite Needs Working Group Assessment Process

The Satellite Needs Working Group (SNWG), part of the U.S. Group on Earth Observations (USGEO), surveys agencies across the U.S. Government to identify the satellite Earth observations each agency needs to fulfill its high-priority objectives and responsibilities. Around 20 civilian agencies participate in the SNWG survey every two years. After receiving the surveys, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) conducts an in-depth evaluation of each agency's needs in collaboration with fellow satellite Earth data providers, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This assessment process, which takes place over an eight-month period, is divided into distinct phases. NASA first assembles an assessment team with the necessary subject matter expertise to evaluate each submitted need. An in-depth interview with each submitting agency then follows, featuring discussion of current and upcoming satellite missions as well as potential new activities that NASA, NOAA, and/or USGS could undertake to meet the agency's needs. The assessment teams then further evaluate these potential activities or solutions to identify how many agencies would benefit and estimate how much their level of satisfaction would increase. Solutions expected to have broad-reaching and significant agency benefits are proposed by NASA for funding. SNWG agencies receive an assessment report for each submitted need, in which the tri-agency assessment teams provide a detailed evaluation of the agency need, information on relevant satellite missions, and links to specific datasets or training resources. The SNWG Management Office at NASA’s Interagency Implementation and Advanced Concepts Team (IMPACT) contributes to NASA’s SNWG assessment in a variety of capacities, including statistical analysis of the survey responses to identify trends and similar needs across multiple agencies. The Management Office also provides analytics for the new proposed solutions, demonstrating and quantifying their potential value. For activities that receive funding, the Management Office manages the implementation process and works to maximize the benefit to SNWG agencies via a Stakeholder Engagement Program.

Katrina Virts↗

Requirement Assurance: A Verification Process

Requirement Assurance is an act of requirement verification which assures the stakeholder or customer that a product requirement has produced its "as realized product" and has been verified with conclusive evidence. Product requirement verification answers the question, "did the product meet the stated specification, performance, or design documentation?". In order to ensure the system was built correctly, the practicing system engineer must verify each product requirement using verification methods of inspection, analysis, demonstration, or test. The products of these methods are the "verification artifacts" or "closure artifacts" which are the objective evidence needed to prove the product requirements meet the verification success criteria. Institutional direction is given to the System Engineer in NPR 7123.1A NASA Systems Engineering Processes and Requirements with regards to the requirement verification process. In response, the verification methodology offered in this report meets both the institutional process and requirement verification best practices.

Alexander, Michael G.↗

The Satellite Needs Working Group (SNWG) Biennial Survey: Analyzing Satellite Earth Observation Needs Across U.S. Federal Civilian Agencies

The Satellite Needs Working Group (SNWG) is part of the U.S. Group on Earth Observations (USGEO) and was established to identify high-priority Earth observation satellite needs across U.S. federal civilian agencies. Federal agencies often rely on Earth observation data to fulfill multidisciplinary agency responsibilities such as assessing agricultural crop conditions, detecting wildfires, and monitoring water quality; however, the data sets and tools required to meet these needs are not always readily available or accessible to agency personnel. SNWG conducts a biennial survey of federal satellite needs in order to bridge the gap between Earth observation data providers and their government stakeholders and users. The SNWG Management Office completes an analysis of these survey submissions to gain insight into the types of satellite needs that exist across the government. Within the survey, agencies provide details on how satellite data are used to meet their objectives, measurement requirements needed for their use cases, and gaps that exist in currently available satellite data products and services. For the SNWG 2024 cycle, there were 125 surveys submitted from 25 different agencies. This presentation will discuss findings from the statistical analysis of the SNWG 2024 survey responses and highlight the diverse nature of the needs, common themes in agency requests, and differences in the responses compared to previous cycles. The presentation will also discuss the newly approved SNWG Aggregate Statistics Report that will make these analysis results available to the public and help inform what’s next for science.

Essence Raphael↗

The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

models↗

The Human Research Program Grant Lifecycle & Data Integration Schedule: Infographic

The Human Research Program (HRP) Grant Lifecycle process can be described using information from several government authoritative sources with overlapping generalizations. It is the responsibility of the HRP Program Planning & Control (PP&C) Office and the Data Management Integration Office (DMIO)to interpret this information into a cohesive process that can be communicated to the human research organization. PP&C and DMIO have been exploring training opportunities to facilitate understanding through the form of infographics. This communication tool combines eye-catching visuals and text making complex information and data more digestible and shareable. The infographic poster tells a short story about a federally awarded grant and is intended to help both the new and experienced HRP workforce understand the timeline for a research procurement and where their specific tasks fall within the 4 phases of the grant lifecycle. The Pre-Award, Award, Post-Award, and Closeout phases are overlayed with business swimlanes so HRP stakeholders can see where they fit into the timeline rather than working in an isolated part. This includes the Chief Scientist Office (CSO), PP&C, the Data Management Integration Office (DMIO), the Principal Investigator (PI), the Element stakeholders, the LSDA Archivists, and the Research & Operations Integration (ROI) team along with the stakeholders in the Human Health and Performance Directorate. Additionally, the poster introduces (1) the HRP Data Integration Schedule identified in the HRP Data Management Plan HRP-48047, Table 8-2 and (2) a Smartsheet Solution to automate the grants tracking business process. Emphasis is given to the Data Integration Schedule which is the basis for the milestone tasks that are to be completed during the Post-Award phase in the grant lifecycle. The poster is also an opportunity to present the Smartsheet Solution, a software collaboration and work management tool used to assign tasks and track project progress. This PP&C FY24 effort will facilitate an end-to-end solution to track grants and provide insight to the health of HRP grant research procurements using metrics, reports, and dashboards.

J Peace↗

Ocean Carbon From Space: Current Status and Priorities for the Next Decade

The ocean plays a central role in modulating the Earth’s carbon cycle. Monitoring how the ocean carbon cycle is changing is fundamental to managing climate change. Satellite remote sensing is currently our best tool for viewing the ocean surface globally and systematically, at high spatial and temporal resolutions, and the past few decades have seen an exponential growth in studies utilising satellite data for ocean carbon research. Satellite-based observations must be combined with in-situ observations and models, to obtain a comprehensive view of ocean carbon pools and fluxes. To help prioritise future research in this area, a workshop was organised that assembled leading experts working on the topic, from around the world, including remote-sensing scientists, field scientists and modellers, with the goal to articulate a collective view of the current status of ocean carbon research, identify gaps in knowledge, and formulate a scientific roadmap for the next decade, with an emphasis on evaluating where satellite remote sensing may contribute. A total of 449 scientists and stakeholders participated (with balanced gender representation), from North and South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. Sessions targeted both inorganic and organic pools of carbon in the ocean, in both dissolved and particulate form, as well as major fluxes of carbon between reservoirs (e.g., primary production) and at interfaces (e.g., air-sea and land–ocean). Extreme events, blue carbon and carbon budgeting were also key topics discussed. Emerging priorities identified include: expanding the networks and quality of in-situ observations; improved satellite retrievals; improved uncertainty quantification; improved understanding of vertical distributions; integration with models; improved techniques to bridge spatial and temporal scales of the different data sources; and improved fundamental understanding of the ocean carbon cycle, and of the interactions among pools of carbon and light. We also report on priorities for the specific pools and fluxes studied, and highlight issues and concerns that arose during discussions, such as the need to consider the environmental impact of satellites or space activities; the role satellites can play in monitoring ocean carbon dioxide removal approaches; economic valuation of the satellite based information; to consider how satellites can contribute to monitoring cycles of other important climatically-relevant compounds and elements; to promote diversity and inclusivity in ocean carbon research; to bring together communities working on different aspects of planetary carbon; maximising use of international bodies; to follow an open science approach; to explore new and innovative ways to remotely monitor ocean carbon; and to harness quantum computing. Overall, this paper provides a comprehensive scientific roadmap for the next decade on how satellite remote sensing could help monitor the ocean carbon cycle, and its links to the other domains, such as terrestrial and atmosphere.

oceanography↗

NASA Exploration Launch Projects Overview: The Crew Launch Vehicle and the Cargo Launch Vehicle Systems

The U.S. Vision for Space Exploration (January 2004) serves as the foundation for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) strategic goals and objectives. As the NASA Administrator outlined during his confirmation hearing in April 2005, these include: 1) Flying the Space Shuttle as safely as possible until its retirement, not later than 2010. 2) Bringing a new Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) into service as soon as possible after Shuttle retirement. 3) Developing a balanced overall program of science, exploration, and aeronautics at NASA, consistent with the redirection of the human space flight program to focus on exploration. 4) Completing the International Space Station (ISS) in a manner consistent with international partner commitments and the needs of human exploration. 5) Encouraging the pursuit of appropriate partnerships with the emerging commercial space sector. 6) Establishing a lunar return program having the maximum possible utility for later missions to Mars and other destinations. In spring 2005, the Agency commissioned a team of aerospace subject matter experts to perform the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS). The ESAS team performed in-depth evaluations of a number of space transportation architectures and provided recommendations based on their findings? The ESAS analysis focused on a human-rated Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) for astronaut transport and a heavy lift Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV) to carry equipment, materials, and supplies for lunar missions and, later, the first human journeys to Mars. After several months of intense study utilizing safety and reliability, technical performance, budget, and schedule figures of merit in relation to design reference missions, the ESAS design options were unveiled in summer 2005. As part of NASA's systems engineering approach, these point of departure architectures have been refined through trade studies during the ongoing design phase leading to the development phase that begins in 2008. Comprehensive reviews of engineering data and business assessments by both internal and independent reviewers serve as decision gates to ensure that systems can fully meet customer and stakeholder requirements. This paper provides the current CLV and CaLV configuration designs and gives examples of the progress being made during the first year of this significant effort. Safe, reliable, cost-effective space transportation systems are a foundational piece of America s future in space and the next step in realizing the plan for revitalizing lunar capabilities on the passageway to the human exploration of Mars. While building on legacy knowledge and heritage hardware for risk reduction, NASA will apply lessons learned from developing these new launch vehicles to the growth path for future missions. The elements for mission success and continued U.S. leadership in space have been assembled over the past year. As NASA designs and develops these two new systems over the next dozen years, visible progress, such as that reported in this paper, may sustain the national will to stay the course across political administrations and weather the inevitable trials that will be experienced during this challenging endeavor.

Snoddy, Jimmy R.↗

Defining Handling Qualities of Unmanned Aerial Systems: Phase II Final Report

Unmanned Air Systems (UAS) are no longer coming, they are here, and operators from first responders to Google and Amazon are demanding access to the National Airspace System (NAS) for a wide variety of missions. This includes a proliferation of small UAS or sUAS that will operate beyond line of sight at altitudes of 500 ft and below. A myriad of issues continues to slow the development of verification, validation, and certification methods that will enable the safe introduction of UAS to the NAS. These issues include the lack of both a consensus in UAS categorization process and quantitative certification requirements, including the definition of handling qualities. Because of the wide variety of UAS types (fixed wing, rotary wing from traditional helicopters to multirotor configurations, ducted fans, airships, etc.) and vehicle size from micro vehicles to the Global Hawk with a wing span similar to that of a Boeing 737, there cannot be a one-size-fits-all set of requirements. To address these issues, Systems Technology Inc. (STI) has developed the UAS Handling Qualities Assessment (UAS-HQ) process and corresponding draft specification that will guide UAS stakeholders through a systematic evaluation process. The work described herein builds on the existing, highly successful, military rotorcraft handling qualities specifications that features a mission-oriented approach, a concept that originated at STI. The vehicle is first identified by a simple weight-based classification and then the associated vehicle mission task elements are considered. These missions have specific tasks inclusive to them that then dictate the criteria and demonstration maneuvers necessary to evaluate the UAS handling qualities. An assessment of both modeled responses and flight test data can then be conducted to examine the predicted versus actual handling qualities and, if required, design modifications can then be made. Mr. David Klyde, Vice President and Technical Director, Engineering Services, served as Principal Investigator, while Dr. Natalia Alexandrov served as the NASA LaRC technical representative. In the Phase II program, STI was joined by David Mitchell of Mitchell Aerospace Research and the University of Minnesota. Mr. Mitchell led the draft specification development effort, while the University of Minnesota UAV Lab conducted sUAS flight tests under the direction of Dr. Peter Seiler.

Klyde, David H.↗

Crew Survivability After a Rapid Cabin Depressurization Event

Anecdotal evidence acquired through historic failure investigations involving rapid cabin decompression (e.g. Challenger, Columbia and Soyuz 11) show that full evacuation of the cabin atmosphere may occur within seconds. During such an event, the delta-pressure between the sealed suit ventilation system and the cabin will rise at the rate of the cabin depressurization; potentially at a rate exceeding the capability of the suit relief valve. It is possible that permanent damage to the suit pressure enclosure and ventilation loop components may occur as the integrated system may be subjected to delta pressures in excess of the design to pressures. Additionally, as the total pressure of the suit ventilation system decreases, so does the oxygen available to the crew. The crew may be subjected to a temporary incapacitating, but non-lethal, hypoxic environment. It is expected that the suit will maintain a survivable atmosphere on the crew until the vehicle pressure control system recovers or the cabin has otherwise attained a habitable environment. A common finding from the aforementioned reports indicates that the crew would have had a better chance at surviving the event had they been in a protective configuration, that is, in a survival suit. Making use of these lessons learned, the Constellation Program implemented a suit loop in the spacecraft design and required that the crew be in a protective configuration, that is suited with gloves on and visors down, during dynamic phases of flight that pose the greatest risk for a rapid and uncontrolled cabin depressurization event: ascent, entry, and docking. This paper details the evaluation performed to derive suit pressure garment and ventilation system performance parameters that would lead to the highest probability of crew survivability after an uncontrolled crew cabin depressurization event while remaining in the realm of practicality for suit design. This evaluation involved: (1) assessment of stakeholder expectations to validate the functionality being imposed; (2) review/refinement of concept of operations to establish the potential triggers for such an event and define the response of the spacecraft and suit ventilation loop pressure control systems; and (3) assessment of system capabilities with respect to structural capability and pressure control. 1 Crew and Thermal Systems Division, NASA Johnson Space Center, Mail Code: AES29, 2101 NASA Parkway, Houston,

Sargusingh, Miriam J.↗

Crew Survivability After a Rapid Cabin Depressurization Event

Anecdotal evidence acquired through historic failure investigations involving rapid cabin decompression (e.g. Challenger, Columbia and Soyuz 11) show that full evacuation of the cabin atmosphere may occur within seconds. During such an event, the delta-pressure between the sealed suit ventilation system and the cabin will rise at the rate of the cabin depressurization; potentially at a rate exceeding the capability of the suit relief valve. It is possible that permanent damage to the suit pressure enclosure and ventilation loop components may occur as the integrated system may be subjected to delta pressures in excess of the design-to pressures. Additionally, as the total pressure of the suit ventilation system decreases, so does the oxygen available to the crew. The crew may be subjected to a temporarily incapacitating, but non-lethal, hypoxic environment. It is expected that the suit will maintain a survivable atmosphere on the crew until the vehicle pressure control system recovers or the cabin has otherwise attained a habitable environment. A common finding from the aforementioned reports indicates that the crew would have had a better chance at surviving the event had they been in a protective configuration, that is, in a survival suit. Making use of these lessons learned, the Constellation Program implemented a suit loop in the spacecraft design and required that the crew be in a protective configuration, that is suited with gloves on and visors down, during dynamic phases of flight that pose the greatest risk for a rapid and uncontrolled cabin depressurization event: ascent, entry, and docking. This paper details the evaluation performed to derive suit pressure garment and ventilation system performance parameters that would lead to the highest probability of crew survivability after an uncontrolled crew cabin depressurization event while remaining in the realm of practicality for suit design. This evaluation involved: (1) assessment of stakeholder expectations to validate the functionality being imposed; (2) review/refinement of concept of operations to establish the potential triggers for such an event and define the response of the spacecraft and suit ventilation loop pressure control systems; and (3) assessment of system capabilities with respect to structural capability and pressure control.

Sargusingh, Miriam J.↗

An Analysis of Barriers Preventing the Widespread Adoption of Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance in Aviation

The aviation industry has long recognized the potential benefits of predictive maintenance, a maintenance strategy that leverages sensor and operational data to predict the future degradation of components. Prescriptive maintenance takes this a step further and considers the entire aviation ecosystem to schedule maintenance actions optimally. With the ability to reduce maintenance costs by up to 30%, as reported by the Department of Energy, these maintenance strategies have been identified to be an important investment to reduce a airline costs. However, despite great interest and technological advances in areas such as diagnostics, prognostics, sensing, computation, and machine learning, the adoption of predictive and prescriptive maintenance has not been widely applied in aviation. To shed light on this issue, we conducted an analysis of the barriers preventing or limiting the adoption of predictive and prescriptive maintenance in aviation. Through discussions with subject matter experts across industry, academia, standards bodies, and government, we identified five key challenges: complexity of prediction; validation, safety assurance, and regulatory challenges; cost of adoption; difficulty in quantifying impact and informing decisions; and data availability, quality, and ownership challenges. This study provides a detailed overview of these barriers and areas where stakeholders could invest to overcome them, aiming to support the scaled adoption of predictive and prescriptive maintenance in aviation.

Christopher Teubert↗

Section on Observed Impacts on El Nino

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. As El Nino climate forecasting grows out of the research mode into operational mode, the research focus shifts to include the design of appropriate modes of utilization. Awareness of and sensitivity to the costs of prediction errors also grow. For example, one major forecasting model failed to predict the very large El Nino event of 1997, when Pacific sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record. Although simple correlations between El Nino events and crop yields may be suggestive, more sophisticated work is needed to understand the subtleties of the interplay among the global climate system, regional climate patterns, and local agricultural systems. Honesty about the limitations of an forecast is essential, especially when human livelihoods are at stake. An end-to-end analysis links tools and expertise from the full sequence of ENSO cause-and-effect processes. Representatives from many disciplines are needed to achieve insights, e.g, oceanographers and atmospheric scientists who predict El Nino events, climatologists who drive global climate models with sea-surface temperature predictions, agronomists who translate regional climate connections in to crop yield forecasts, and economists who analyze market adjustments to the vagaries of climate and determine the value of climate forecasts. Methods include historical studies to understand past patterns and to test hindcasts of the prediction tools, crop modeling, spatial analysis and remote sensing. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional ID forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds. The stability of human enterprises depends on understanding both the potentialities and the limits of predictability. Farmers rely on past experience to anticipate and respond to fluctuations in the biophysical systems on which their livelihoods depend. Now scientists are improving their ability to predict some major elements of climate variability. The improvements in the reliability of El Nino forecasts are encouraging, but seasonal forecasts for agriculture are not, and will probably never be completely infallible, due to the chaotic nature of the climate system. Uncertainties proliferate as we extend beyond Pacific sea-surface temperatures to climate teleconnections and agricultural outcomes. The goal of this research is to shed as a clear light as possible on these inherent uncertainties and thus to contribute to the development of appropriate responses to El Nino and other seasonal forecasts for a range of stakeholders, which, ultimately, includes food consumers everywhere.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

NASA’s Top Human System Research and Technology Needs for Mars

NASA is working with industry and international partners to return humans to the Moon and to eventually enable humans to explore Mars. Within NASA, several organizations work together to identify, prioritize, fund, execute, and operationalize the research and technology development (R&TD) that will be necessary to enable crew health and performance (CHP) during these future missions. These organizations include flight programs, the Health and Medical Technical Authority (HMTA), the Human Research Program, the Space Technology Mission Directorate, System Capability Leadership Teams, and other organizations, many of which existed for several years prior to the creation of the Moon-to-Mars (M2M) Program Office in 2023. A variety of constructs, vocabularies, and processes exist for managing risks and supporting strategic planning across these organizations. For example, M2M objectives, program risks, human system risks, human research gaps, capability gaps, and envisioned futures are all constructs currently used within NASA to identify and prioritize R&TD needs. These strategic planning constructs are evolving to allow M2M objectives and R&TD investments to be aligned and traced at a detailed level. A recognized need exists among stakeholder organizations to identify and communicate the highest CHP R&TD priorities in a unified and digestible way that addresses the perspectives of NASA’s CHP community. To achieve this, the HMTA arranged a series of discussions with representatives of NASA’s CHP community, during which the 8 highest priority CHP capabilities that will enable human missions to Mars, referred to as the “top human system capability needs for Mars”, were identified. The list includes Earth-independent human operations; Mars-duration food system; Mars-duration effects on human physiology; risk mitigations for vehicle atmospheres; computational injury and anthropometric models; exploration exercise countermeasures; individual variability in responses to spaceflight; and sensorimotor countermeasures. Existing tools and processes for strategic planning and risk management were evaluated, as well as the technical practicalities, cost, and schedule feasibility associated with potential R&TD investments in different capability need areas. This capability needs report is not owned by any one NASA organization and does not replace existing strategic or program planning processes; rather it aims to complement and inform them with a unified set of community generated priorities. These top capability needs will be re-evaluated periodically based on R&TD progress and the evolving M2M architecture.

technology gaps↗