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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7

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NASA NTRS1989

Transmission overhaul and replacement predictions using Weibull and renewel theory

A method to estimate the frequency of transmission overhauls is presented. This method is based on the two-parameter Weibull statistical distribution for component life. A second method is presented to estimate the number of replacement components needed to support the transmission overhaul pattern. The second method is based on renewal theory. Confidence statistics are applied with both methods to improve the statistical estimate of sample behavior. A transmission example is also presented to illustrate the use of the methods. Transmission overhaul frequency and component replacement calculations are included in the example.

Savage, M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Transmission overhaul and replacement predictions using Weibull and renewal theory

Savage, M.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Variable-density effects in incompressible non-buoyant shear-driven turbulent mixing layers

The asymmetries that arise when a mixing layer involves two miscible fluids of differing densities are investigated using incompressible (low-speed) direct numerical simulations. The simulations are performed in the temporal configuration with very large domain sizes, to allow the mixing layers to reach prolonged states of fully turbulent self-similar growth. Imposing a mean density variation breaks the mean symmetry relative to the classical single-fluid temporal mixing layer problem. Unlike prior variable-density mixing layer simulations in which the streams are composed of the same fluids with dissimilar thermodynamic properties, the density variations are presently due to compositional differences between the fluid streams, leading to different mixing dynamics. Variable-density (non-Boussinesq) effects introduce strong asymmetries in the flow statistics that can be explained by the strongest turbulence increasingly migrating to the lighter fluid side as free-stream density difference increases. Interface thickness growth rates also reduce, with some thickness definitions particularly sensitive to the corresponding changes in alignment between density and streamwise velocity profiles. Additional asymmetries in the sense of statistical distributions of densities at a given position within the mixing layer reveal that fine scales of turbulence are preferentially sustained in lighter fluid, which also is where fastest mixing occurs. These effects influence statistics involving density fluctuations, which have important implications for mixing and more complicated phenomena that are sensitive to the mixing dynamics, such as combustion.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Wavelet flow for extragalactic foreground simulations

Extragalactic foregrounds in cosmic microwave background (CMB) observations are both a source of cosmological and astrophysical information and a nuisance to the CMB. Effective field-level modeling that captures their non-Gaussian statistical distributions is increasingly important for optimal information extraction, particularly given the low-noise observations from current and upcoming experiments. Here, we explore the use of Wavelet Flow (WF) models to tackle the novel task of modeling the field-level probability distributions of multi-component CMB secondaries and foregrounds. Specifically, we jointly train correlated CMB lensing convergence (κ) and cosmic infrared background (CIB) maps with a WF model and obtain a network that statistically recovers the input to high accuracy — the trained network generates samples of κ and CIB fields whose average power spectra are within a few percent of the inputs across all scales, and whose Minkowski functionals are similarly accurate compared to the inputs. Leveraging the multiscale architecture of these models, we fine-tune both the model parameters and the priors at each scale independently, optimizing performance across different resolutions. These results demonstrate that WF models can accurately simulate correlated components of CMB secondaries, supporting improved analysis of cosmological data. Our code and trained models can be found on this GitHub repo.

cosmological simulations↗

NASA NTRS2014

Missing Data and Multiple Imputation: An Unbiased Approach

The default method of dealing with missing data in statistical analyses is to only use the complete observations (complete case analysis), which can lead to unexpected bias when data do not meet the assumption of missing completely at random (MCAR). For the assumption of MCAR to be met, missingness cannot be related to either the observed or unobserved variables. A less stringent assumption, missing at random (MAR), requires that missingness not be associated with the value of the missing variable itself, but can be associated with the other observed variables. When data are truly MAR as opposed to MCAR, the default complete case analysis method can lead to biased results. There are statistical options available to adjust for data that are MAR, including multiple imputation (MI) which is consistent and efficient at estimating effects. Multiple imputation uses informing variables to determine statistical distributions for each piece of missing data. Then multiple datasets are created by randomly drawing on the distributions for each piece of missing data. Since MI is efficient, only a limited number, usually less than 20, of imputed datasets are required to get stable estimates. Each imputed dataset is analyzed using standard statistical techniques, and then results are combined to get overall estimates of effect. A simulation study will be demonstrated to show the results of using the default complete case analysis, and MI in a linear regression of MCAR and MAR simulated data. Further, MI was successfully applied to the association study of CO2 levels and headaches when initial analysis showed there may be an underlying association between missing CO2 levels and reported headaches. Through MI, we were able to show that there is a strong association between average CO2 levels and the risk of headaches. Each unit increase in CO2 (mmHg) resulted in a doubling in the odds of reported headaches.

Foy, M.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Some analysis on the diurnal variation of rainfall over the Atlantic Ocean

Data collected from the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) was examined. The data were collected from 10,000 grid points arranged as a 100 x 100 array; each grid covered a 4 square km area. The amount of rainfall was measured every 15 minutes during the experiment periods using c-band radars. Two types of analyses were performed on the data: analysis of diurnal variation was done on each of grid points based on the rainfall averages at noon and at midnight, and time series analysis on selected grid points based on the hourly averages of rainfall. Since there are no known distribution model which best describes the rainfall amount, nonparametric methods were used to examine the diurnal variation. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to test if the rainfalls at noon and at midnight have the same statistical distribution. Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to test if the noon rainfall is heavier than, equal to, or lighter than the midnight rainfall. These tests were done on each of the 10,000 grid points at which the data are available.

Gill, T.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A PC-based hardware implementation of the maximum-likelihood classifier for the Shuttle Ice Detection System

A PC-based near-real time implementation of a two-channel maximum-likelihood classifier is described. The statistical distribution of the reflectance characteristics of ice, frost, and water formation on spray-on-foam-insulation, which covers the External Tank surface of the Space Shuttle, is acquired. The classification technique is based on these statistics. The computer, set in either a training or a classifying mode, learns the statistics of the various classes, or produces a color-coded image denoting the respective categories of classification. The classified results are memory-mapped for efficiency. The speed of the classification process is only limited by the speed of the digital frame grabber and the software that interfaces the frame grabber to the monitor. The process took 4 seconds for a 512 x 480 pixel image.

Jaggi, S.↗

NASA NTRS1956

Propagation of a Free Flame in a Turbulent Gas Stream

Effective flame speeds of free turbulent flames were measured by photographic, ionization-gap, and photomultiplier-tube methods, and were found to have a statistical distribution attributed to the nature of the turbulent field. The effective turbulent flame speeds for the free flame were less than those previously measured for flames stabilized on nozzle burners, Bunsen burners, and bluff bodies. The statistical spread of the effective turbulent flame speeds was markedly wider in the lean and rich fuel-air-ratio regions, which might be attributed to the greater sensitivity of laminar flame speed to flame temperature in those regions. Values calculated from the turbulent free-flame-speed analysis proposed by Tucker apparently form upper limits for the statistical spread of free-flame-speed data. Hot-wire anemometer measurements of the longitudinal velocity fluctuation intensity and longitudinal correlation coefficient were made and were employed in the comparison of data and in the theoretical calculation of turbulent flame speed.

Mickelsen, William R↗

DOE OSTI2020

A numerical study of the meso-structure variability in the compaction process of prepreg platelet molded composites

Compaction deformations in a thermoplastic composite system molded from chopped prepreg platelets were analyzed to obtain statistical distributions of local distortions that define the final consolidated meso-structure. This study provides an insight into and allows quantification of the intrinsic geometric variability of the composite meso-structure that controls the variability of the effective composite mechanical properties. A two-phase viscoelastic finite element model was utilized to treat the behavior of molten prepreg platelets, which were assumed to be incompressible and inextensible in the fiber direction during processing. A two-step simulation procedure with discretely modeled platelets and platelet-to-platelet contacts is proposed. The analysis begins with a drop simulation of the uncontrolled material deposition followed by a 3D finite element analysis of the preform compaction and bulk material flow. The proposed model provides a method for generating a composite meso-structure ab initio starting from a statistical sampling of the initial conditions for platelet deposition. The predicted platelet thickness distribution, intra-platelet fiber waviness and out-of-plane platelet undulations were found to be in good agreement with experimental measurements. An estimate of the volume of resin pockets was inferred from the compaction simulation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anion and Cation Migration at 2D/3D Halide Perovskite Interfaces

Here, this study explores the ionic dynamics in 2D/3Dperovskite solar cells, which are known for their improved efficiency and stability. The focus is on the impact of halide choice in 3D perovskites treated with phenethylammonium halide salts (PEAX, X = Br and I). Our findings reveal that light and heat drive ionic migration in these structures, with PEA + species diffusing into the 3D film in PEABr-treated samples. Mixed-halide 3D perovskites show halide interdiffusion, with bromine migrating to the surface and iodine diffusing into the film. Cathodoluminescence microscopy reveals localized 2Dphases on the 3D perovskite, which become more evenly distributed after thermal treatment. Both PEAX salts enhance the performance of photovoltaic devices. This improvement is attributed to the passivation capabilities of the salts themselves and their respective Ruddlesden–Popper (RP) phases. Annealed PEAI-treated devices show a better balance between efficiency and statistical distribution of photovoltaic parameters.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Robust Design Under Uncertainty in Quantum Error Mitigation

Error mitigation techniques are crucial to achieving near-term quantum advantage. Classical postprocessing of quantum computation outcomes is a popular approach for error mitigation, which includes methods, such as zero noise extrapolation, virtual distillation, and learning-based error mitigation. However, these techniques have limitations due to the propagation of uncertainty resulting from the finite shot number of a quantum measurement. In this work, we introduce general and unbiased methods for quantifying the uncertainty and error of error-mitigated observables based on the strategic sampling of error mitigation outcomes. We then extend our approach to demonstrate the optimization of performance and robustness of error mitigation under uncertainty. To illustrate our methods, we apply them to zero noise extrapolation and Clifford date regression in the ground state of the XY model simulated using depolarizing and International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Toronto noise models, respectively. In particular, we optimize the choice of noise levels and the allocation of shots for zero noise extrapolation and the distribution of the training circuits for Clifford data regression. While our methods are readily applicable to any postprocessing-based error mitigation approach, in practice they must not be prohibitively expensive—even though they perform optimizations of the error mitigation hyperparameters requiring sampling of a statistical distribution of error mitigation outcomes. By leveraging surrogate-based optimization, we show that our methods can efficiently perform optimal design for a zero noise extrapolation implementation. We then further demonstrate the transferability of learned zero noise extrapolation hyperparameters to other similar circuits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Priors on red galaxy stochasticity from hybrid effective field theory

ABSTRACT We investigate the stochastic properties of typical red galaxy samples in a controlled numerical environment. We use halo occupation distribution (HOD) modelling to create mock realizations of three separate bright red galaxy samples consistent with data sets used for clustering and lensing analyses in modern galaxy surveys. Second-order Hybrid Effective Field Theory (HEFT) is used as a field-level forward model to describe the full statistical distribution of these tracer samples, and their stochastic power spectra are directly measured and compared to the Poisson shot-noise prediction. While all of the galaxy samples we consider are hosted within haloes with sub-Poisson stochasticity, we observe that the galaxy samples themselves possess stochasticities that range from sub-Poisson to super-Poisson, in agreement with predictions from the halo model. As an application of our methodology, we place priors on the expected degree of non-Poisson stochasticity in cosmological analyses using such samples. We expect these priors will be useful in reducing the complexity of the full parameter space for future analyses using second-order Lagrangian bias models. More generally, the techniques outlined here present the first application of HEFT methods to characterize models of the galaxy–halo connection at the field level, revealing new connections between once-disparate modelling frameworks.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Constraining the Multiscale Structure of Geophysical Fields in Machine Learning: The Case of Precipitation

The use of deep-learning algorithms for estimating the value of geophysical variables from remotely sensed information is rapidly expanding. The typical objective function minimized in such algorithms is the mean square error (MSE), which is known to lead to smooth estimates with compressed dynamical range as compared to the true distribution of the variable of interest. Here, we introduce and evaluate alternative objective functions, focusing on the retrieval of precipitation rates from satellite passive microwave radiometric measurements using a deep convolutional neural network. For this testbed application, the results show that explicitly imposing the preservation of the statistical distribution and spatial wavelet power spectrum of the target variable allows to accurately reproduce extreme values and sharp gradients across multiple scales in this study.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2000

Evaluation of Non-Ozone-Depleting-Chemical Cleaning Methods for Space Mechanisms Using a Vacuum Spiral Orbit Rolling Contact Tribometer

Because CFC 113, an ozone depleting chemical (ODC), can no longer be produced, alternative bearing cleaning methods must be studied. The objective of this work was to study the effect of the new cleaning methods on lubricant lifetime using a vacuum bearing simulator (spiral orbit rolling contact tribometer). Four alternative cleaning methods were studied: ultra-violet (UV) ozone, aqueous levigated alumina slurry (ALAS), super critical fluid (SCF) CO2 and aqueous Brulin 815GD. Baseline tests were done using CFC 113. Test conditions were the following: a vacuum of at least 1.3 x 10(exp -6) Pa, 440C steel components, a rotational speed of 10 RPM, a lubricant charge of between 60-75 micrograms, a perfluoropolyalkylether lubricant (Z-25), and a load of 200N (44.6 lbs., a mean Hertzian stress of 1.5 GPa). Normalized lubricant lifetime was determined by dividing the total number of ball orbits by the amount of lubricant. The failure condition was a friction coefficient of 0.38. Post-test XPS analysis was also performed, showing slight variations in post-cleaning surface chemistry. Statistical analysis of the resultant data was conducted and it was determined that the data sets were most directly comparable when subjected to a natural log transformation. The natural log life (NL-Life) data for each cleaning method were reasonably normally (statistically) distributed and yielded standard deviations that were not significantly different among the five cleaning methods investigated. This made comparison of their NL-Life means very straightforward using a Bonferroni multiple comparison of means procedure. This procedure showed that the ALAS, UV-ozone and CFC 113 methods were not statistically significantly different from one another with respect to mean NL-Life. It also found that the SCF CO2 method yielded a significantly higher mean NL-Life than the mean NL-Lives of the ALAS, UV-ozone and CFC 113 methods. It also determined that the aqueous Brulin 815GD method yielded a mean NL-Life that was statistically significantly higher than the mean NL-Lives of each of the other four methods. Baseline tests using CFC 113 cleaned parts yielded a mean NL-Life 3.62 orbits/micro-g. ALAS and UV-ozone yielded similar mean NL-Life (3.31 orbits/mg and 3.33 orbits/micro-g, respectively). SCF CO2, gave a mean NL-Life of 4.08 orbits/mg and aqueous Brulin 8l5GD data yielded the longest mean NL-Life (4.66 orbits/micro-g).

Jansen, Mark J.↗

NASA NTRS1979

The effect of load sequence on the statistical fatigue of composites

A theoretical model to predict the effect of loading sequence on the statistical distributions of the fatigue life and the residual strength under n-stress levels of cyclic loading is derived on the basis of a three-parameter model. In particular, the dual stress fatigue cumulative damage is studied, showing that the Miner's sum (the cumulative damage sum at fatigue failure) is a statistical variable. It is proved theoretically that the Miner's sum is always greater than or equal to unity for the high-low load sequence, while it is always smaller than or equal to unity for the low-high load sequence, with the deviation from unity increasing as the difference between the high and the low stress levels increases. An experimental test program using graphite/epoxy angle-ply laminates, carried out to generate statistically meaningful data for verifying the proposed model, is discussed.

Yang, J. N.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Time Distribution Analysis for Task Primitives to Support Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

To support data collection for dynamic human reliability analysis (HRA), this study investigates time distributions for task primitives defined in the Goals, Operators, Methods, and Selection rules (GOMS)–Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) method and Human Reliability data EXtraction (HuREX). GOMS-HRA was developed to provide cognition-based time and human error probability (HEP) information for dynamic HRA calculations within the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) framework, while HuREX is a comprehensive HRA data collection method developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). In this paper, we examine time distributions by using experimental data collected from the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP) study, which proposes an HRA data collection framework to complement full-scope simulator research and gather input data for dynamic HRA by using simplified simulators such as the Rancor Microworld simulator. This paper investigates whether the time required for GOMS-HRA and HuREX task primitives fits 13 statistical distributions. Additionally, we compare and discuss the time distributions obtained from both student operators and professional operators. The result was that this study identified several time distributions for five GOMS-HRA and four HuREX task primitives. In the future, the results of this study are expected to provide objective reference data on the elapsed time for task primitives and aid in realistically simulating scenarios within dynamic HRA.

Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis↗

DOE OSTI2021

Examination of probability distribution of mixture fraction in LES/FDF modelling of a turbulent partially premixed jet flame

An accurate prediction of the probability density function (PDF) of the mixture fraction is crucial to the prediction of combustion since mixing plays an important role in turbulent non-premixed and partially premixed flames. This work provides an assessment of the large-eddy simulation (LES)/filtered density function (FDF) method for the prediction of the PDF of the mixture fraction. The advantage of the LES/FDF method is that it provides the full predictions of the statistical distribution of scalars including the mixture fraction. The predictive accuracy of the method for the PDF is yet to be fully validated. Assessing the prediction of the PDF of the mixture fraction, a conserved scalar, is an important starting point. The Sydney/Sandia inhomogeneous inlet jet flame is used as a test case. A quick comparison shows that the LES/FDF predicted PDF shapes of the mixture fraction deviate significantly from the commonly presumed Beta-PDF as well as from the experimental data in the flame. Here, to examine the source of the discrepancy, we clarify the different PDF definitions used in the comparison among the predictions, measurements, and the presumed shape PDFs. The discrepancy observed from the comparison is largely reconciled by clarifying the difference between the PDFs that are examined. The PDF of the resolved mixture fraction is shown to be close to the Beta-PDF in both the measurements and predictions, while the PDF directly deduced from the LES/FDF particles deviates significantly from the Beta-PDF. A multimodal PDF analysis and a pseudo convergence analysis are conducted to provide plausible evidence to support the predicted multimodal PDF shapes. The sub-filter scale FDF is shown to be close to the Beta-PDF too through the construction of a synthesized PDF, which supports the common presumed Beta-PDF assumption used in the presumed PDF methods when combined with LES.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sizing Considerations for EV Dynamic Wireless Charging Systems with Integrated Energy Storage

Roadways with dynamic wireless charging systems (DWCS) enable charge-sustaining in-motion EV charging, which can reduce charging idle time while increasing range capabilities. Spatially distributed transmitter coils are controlled in response to traffic load that varies significantly minute to minute with high power levels, very short charging time, and low system utilization like wind turbine power. Traffic load estimation and localized analysis may guide effective sizing and topology adoption for feasible and scalable DWCS deployment. DWCS traffic load approximation is reviewed with measured Automated Traffic Recorder (ATR) data and statistical distributions being used to create a synthetic load analyzed using proposed metrics quantifying system utilization over time. Lumped coil section segmentation is compared between second-based distance and spatial density analysis methods, offering 17-27% greater system utilization. A peak load shifting method is proposed for traffic redirection across two tracks with optional BESS integration increasing system utilization by 50-60% depending on time-based and power reserve-based sizing and control.

Lewis, Donovin D.↗