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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7

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NASA NTRS1997

Stochastic-Dynamical Modeling of Space Time Rainfall

The focus of this research work is the elucidation of the physical origins of the observed extreme-rainfall variability over tropical oceans. The quantitative results of this work may be used to establish links between deterministic models of the mesoscale and synoptic scale with statistical descriptions of the temporal variability of local tropical oceanic rainfall. In addition, they may be used to quantify the influence of measurement error in large-scale forcing and cloud scale observations on the accuracy of local rainfall variability inferences, important for hydrologic studies. A simple statistical-dynamical model, suitable for use in repetitive Monte Carlo experiments, is formulated as a diagnostic tool for this purpose. Stochastic processes with temporal structure and parameters estimated from observed large-scale data represent large-scale forcing.

Georgankakos, Konstantine P.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Comparison of field-aligned currents at ionospheric and magnetospheric altitudes

Using the empirical terrestrial magnetospheric magnetic field models of Tsyganenko and Usmanov (1982) and Tsyganenko (1987) the average field-aligned currents (FACs) in the magnetosphere were determined as a function of the Kp index. Three major model FAC systems were identified, namely, the dayside region 1, the nightside region 1, and the nightside polar cap. The models provide information about the sources of the current systems. Mapped ionospheric model FACs are compared with low-altitude measurements obtained by the spacecraft. It is found that low-altitude data can reveal either classic region 1/2 or more highly structured FAC patterns. Therefore, statistical results either obtained from observations or inferred from models are expected to be averages over temporally and spatially shifting patterns.

Spence, H. E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads

This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that the authors' techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system loading, resulting in fewer object migrations than local methods. The authors' method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive load-balancing methods. Results from a preliminary analysis of another system and from simulation with a synthetic load provide some evidence of more general applicability.

LOAD CONTROL↗

NASA NTRS1993

Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads

This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that our techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system load ing, resulting in fewer object migration than local methods. Our method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive methods.

REAL TIME↗

NASA NTRS1981

The state of the atmosphere as inferred from the FGGE satellite observing systems during SOP-1

The statistical properties, and coverage, of satellite temperature sounding data are described. Tropical regions are observed every two days, extratropics from one to four times a day. Oceans are covered two to three times a day. Asynoptic coverage is comparable to the U.S. rawinsonde network twice daily coverage. Lack of ground truth for data sparse areas makes accuracy difficult to assess. The rms differences of layer mean temperatures obtained from collocating rawinsonde observations with satellite temperature profiles in space and time differ from rms differences of layer mean satellite temperature soundings. The FGGE satellite systems can infer the three dimensional motion field and improve the representation of the large scale state of the atmosphere.

Halem, M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

The footprints of visual attention in the Posner cueing paradigm revealed by classification images

In the Posner cueing paradigm, observers' performance in detecting a target is typically better in trials in which the target is present at the cued location than in trials in which the target appears at the uncued location. This effect can be explained in terms of a Bayesian observer where visual attention simply weights the information differently at the cued (attended) and uncued (unattended) locations without a change in the quality of processing at each location. Alternatively, it could also be explained in terms of visual attention changing the shape of the perceptual filter at the cued location. In this study, we use the classification image technique to compare the human perceptual filters at the cued and uncued locations in a contrast discrimination task. We did not find statistically significant differences between the shapes of the inferred perceptual filters across the two locations, nor did the observed differences account for the measured cueing effects in human observers. Instead, we found a difference in the magnitude of the classification images, supporting the idea that visual attention changes the weighting of information at the cued and uncued location, but does not change the quality of processing at each individual location.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS1978

Coronal gas in the Galaxy. II - A statistical analysis of O VI absorptions

This paper deals with general inferences about the low-density phase of interstellar gas having temperatures well above 200,000 K (the 'coronal gas') which can be drawn from O VI absorption data for 72 stars. Attention is given to the behavior of radial velocities, possible evidence for circumstellar O VI, the space distribution of the O VI gas, crowding of normal interstellar gas, and temperature distributions for the coronal gas. A model is adopted in which the coronal gas is contained within randomly distributed and nonoverlapping parcels, each with a size, pressure, and internal temperature distribution that do not vary markedly from one unit to the next. It is shown that the one-dimensional velocity dispersion for O VI regions (26 km/s) is substantially higher than the value for ordinary interstellar clouds (6.4 km/s).

Jenkins, E. B.↗

NASA NTRS1989

A study of the effect of synoptic scale processes in GCM modelling

Research was conducted to help modeling groups at NASA to develop better weather forecasting and general circulation models (GCM) for activities relating to the meteorological uses of satellite data. The focus was on the physical processes that were being simulated by models: radiative effects and latent heat release associated with clouds; orographic influences; and heat transfer at the ocean and ice surfaces. An attempt was made to deduce the role of diabatic heating in North Atlantic cyclogenesis and in the global heat budget. Inferences were made in four studies: heat budget statistics from GCM assimilations; dynamics of north Atlantic cyclones; Cage-type energy budget calculations; and grid scale cloud formation. Mechanisms that were responsible for the variability and structure of the atmospheric on a hemispheric scale were studied by a hybrid of statistical analysis and theoretical modeling. Variability and structure are both related to synoptic scale processes through baroclinic and barotropic energy transformations.

Herman, Gerald F.↗

NASA NTRS2019

The NaK Population: A 2019 Status

The statistical debris measurement campaigns conducted by the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) on behalf of the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office are used to characterize the long-term behavior of the small, low Earth orbit (LEO) orbital debris environment. A long-recognized, unique component of the LEO environment is composed of small Sodium-Potassium (NaK) eutectic nuclear reactor coolant droplets associated with the Soviet Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) program. Beginning with the flight of Cosmos 1176, RORSAT vehicles would nominally separate their reactor core at end of mission, thereby venting the NaK coolant and producing the NaK droplet population. In this paper, we describe the methodology by which NaK are segregated from the statistically sampled general debris population and their sizes inferred; the current NaK environment; how it has changed over time; and a potential new source of NaK: RORSAT vehicles that did not separate their reactor core by either design or apparent malfunction.

Matney, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2001

Robust Strategy for Rocket Engine Health Monitoring

Monitoring the health of rocket engine systems is essentially a two-phase process. The acquisition phase involves sensing physical conditions at selected locations, converting physical inputs to electrical signals, conditioning the signals as appropriate to establish scale or filter interference, and recording results in a form that is easy to interpret. The inference phase involves analysis of results from the acquisition phase, comparison of analysis results to established health measures, and assessment of health indications. A variety of analytical tools may be employed in the inference phase of health monitoring. These tools can be separated into three broad categories: statistical, rule based, and model based. Statistical methods can provide excellent comparative measures of engine operating health. They require well-characterized data from an ensemble of "typical" engines, or "golden" data from a specific test assumed to define the operating norm in order to establish reliable comparative measures. Statistical methods are generally suitable for real-time health monitoring because they do not deal with the physical complexities of engine operation. The utility of statistical methods in rocket engine health monitoring is hindered by practical limits on the quantity and quality of available data. This is due to the difficulty and high cost of data acquisition, the limited number of available test engines, and the problem of simulating flight conditions in ground test facilities. In addition, statistical methods incur a penalty for disregarding flow complexity and are therefore limited in their ability to define performance shift causality. Rule based methods infer the health state of the engine system based on comparison of individual measurements or combinations of measurements with defined health norms or rules. This does not mean that rule based methods are necessarily simple. Although binary yes-no health assessment can sometimes be established by relatively simple rules, the causality assignment needed for refined health monitoring often requires an exceptionally complex rule base involving complicated logical maps. Structuring the rule system to be clear and unambiguous can be difficult, and the expert input required to maintain a large logic network and associated rule base can be prohibitive.

Santi, L. Michael↗

NASA NTRS2022

Remote Sensing of Aerosol Water Fraction, Dry Size Distribution and Soluble Fraction Using Multi-Angle, Multi-Spectral Polarimetry

A framework to infer volume water fraction, soluble fraction and dry size distributions of fine-mode aerosol from multi-angle, multi-spectral polarimetry retrievals of column-averaged ambient aerosol properties is presented. The method is applied to observations of the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) obtained during two NASA aircraft campaigns, namely the Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) and the Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex). All aerosol retrievals are statistically evaluated using in situ data. Volume water fraction is inferred from the retrieved ambient real part of the refractive index, assuming a dry refractive index of 1.54 and by applying a volume mixing rule to obtain the effective ambient refractive index. The uncertainties in inferred volume water fraction resulting from this simplified model are discussed and estimated to be lower than 0.2 and decreasing with increasing volume water fraction. The daily mean retrieved volume water fractions correlate well with the in situ values with a mean absolute difference of 0.09. Polarimeter-retrieved ambient effective radius for daily data is shown to increase as a function of volume water fraction as expected. Furthermore, the effective variance of the size distributions also increases with increasing effective radius, which we show is consistent with an external mixture of soluble and insoluble aerosol. The relative variations of effective radius and variance over an observation period are then used to estimate the soluble fraction of the aerosol. Daily results of soluble fraction correlate well with in situ-observed sulfate mass fraction with a correlation coefficient of 0.79. Subsequently, inferred water and soluble fractions are used to derive dry fine-mode size distributions from their ambient counterparts. While dry effective radii obtained in situ and from RSP show similar ranges, in situ values are generally substantially smaller during the ACTIVATE deployments, which may be due to biases in RSP retrievals or in the in situ observations, or both. Both RSP and in situ observations indicate the dominance of aerosol with low hygroscopicity during the ACTIVATE and CAMP2Ex campaigns. Furthermore, RSP indicates a high degree of external mixing of particles with low and high hygroscopicity. These retrievals of fine-mode water volume fraction and soluble fraction may be used for the evaluation of water uptake in atmospheric models. Furthermore, the framework allows us to estimate the variation in the concentration of fine-mode aerosol larger than a specific dry radius limit, which can be used as a proxy for the variation in cloud condensation nucleus concentrations. This framework may be applied to multi-angle, multi-spectral satellite data expected to be available in the near future.

Amount of water in particulate matter↗

NASA NTRS2022

Remote Sensing of Aerosol Water Fraction, Dry Size Distribution and Soluble Fraction Using Multi-Angle, Multi-Spectral Polarimetry

A framework to infer volume water fraction, soluble fraction and dry size distributions of fine mode aerosol from multi-angle, multi-spectral polarimetry retrievals of column-averaged ambient aerosol properties is presented. The method is applied to observations of the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) obtained during two NASA aircraft campaigns, namely the Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) and the Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes-Philippines Experiment (CAMP2Ex). All aerosol retrievals are statistically evaluated using in situ data. Volume water fraction is inferred from the retrieved ambient real part of the refractive index, assuming a dry refractive index of 1.54 and by applying a volume mixing rule to obtain the effective ambient refractive index. The uncertainties in inferred volume water fraction resulting from this simplified model are discussed and estimated to be lower than 0.2 and decreasing with increasing volume water fraction. The daily mean retrieved volume water fractions correlate well with the in situ values with a mean absolute difference of 0.09. Polarimeter-retrieved ambient effective radius for daily data is shown to increase as a function of volume water fraction as expected. Furthermore, the effective variance of the size distributions also increases with increasing effective radius, which we show is consistent with an external mixture of soluble and insoluble aerosol. The relative variations of effective radius and variance over an observation period are then used to estimate the soluble fraction of the aerosol. Daily results of soluble fraction correlate well with in situ observed sulfate mass fraction with a correlation coefficient of 0.79. Subsequently, inferred water and soluble fractions are used to derive dry fine-mode size distributions from their ambient counterparts. While dry effective radii obtained in situ and from RSP show similar ranges, in situ values are generally substantially smaller during the ACTIVATE deployments, which may be due to biases in RSP retrievals or in the in situ observations, or both. Both RSP and in situ observations indicate the dominance of aerosol with low hygroscopicity during the ACTIVATE and CAMP2Ex campaigns. Furthermore, RSP indicates a high degree of external mixing of particles with low and high hygroscopicity. These retrievals of fine mode water volume fraction and soluble fraction may be used for the evaluation of water uptake in atmospheric models. Furthermore, the framework allows to estimate the variation in the concentration of fine-mode aerosol larger than a specific dry radius limit, which can be used as a proxy for the variation in cloud condensation nucleus concentrations. This framework may be applied to multi-angle, multi-spectral satellite data expected to be available in the near future.

Bastiaan Van Diedenhoven↗

NASA NTRS1985

Application of satellite data to tropic/subtropic moisture coupling

The objective is to develop analysis tools for use of satellite data to interpret synoptic-scale systems in data-void regions. Interim goals are to: (1) quantify the synoptic information content of satellite data; and (2) utilize these data in the diagnosis of moisture bursts in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Researchers developed and implemented a statistical procedure for using TIROS N microwave data to infer infrared channel data for overcast conditions; they used the same procedure for deducing full TIROS N channel radiance profiles from NOAA 5 VTPR channel data over regions where the TIROS N data are missing. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of twice-daily channel radiance fields over the tropical eastern Pacific was completed. The vertically oriented eigenfunctions were interpreted in terms of typical meteorological events. The horizontal distribution of the eigenfunction amplitudes relates these meteorological signals to moisture bursts. A pair of moisture burst climatologies is complete: one of four years using infrared imagery (including the highly anomalous 1982 to 83 cold season); the other implementing 850 to 200 mb wind analyses in conjunction with GOES imagery. A number of different evaluations of the synoptic evolution of moisture fields (enhanced infrared imagery, moisture channel data, FGGE humidity analysis, and in situ station and sounding observations) are compared. All have limitations; all can be utilized together; all together are still less than adequate in the tropical Pacific.

Mcguirk, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Statistical survey of pitch angle distributions in core (0-50 eV) ions from Dynamics Explorer 1: Outflow in the auroral zone, polar cap, and cusp

Core (0-50 eV) ion pitch angle measurements from the retarding ion mass spectrometer on Dynamics Explorer 1 are examined with respect to magnetic disturbance, invariant latitude, magnetic local time, and altitude for ions H(+), He(+), O(+), M/Z = 2 (D(+) or He(++)), and O(++). Included are outflow events in the auroral zone, polar cap, and cusp, separated into altitude regions below and above 3 R(sub E). In addition to the customary division into beam, conic, and upwelling distributions, the high-latitude observations fall into three categories corresponding to ion bulk speeds that are (1) less than, (2) comparable to, or (3) faster than that of the spacecraft. This separation, along with the altitude partition, serves to identify conditions under which ionospheric source ions are gravita- tionally bound and when they are more energetic and able to escape to the outer magnetosphere. Features of the cleft ion fountain inferred from single event studies are clearly identifiable in the statistical results. In addition, it is found that the dayside pre-noon cleft is a dayside afternoon cleft, or auroral zone, becomes an additional source for increased activity. The auroral oval as a whole appears to be a steady source of escape velocity H(+), a steady source of escape velocity He(+) ions for the dusk sector, and a source of escape velocity heavy ions for dusk local times primarily during increased activity. The polar cap above the auroral zone is a consistent source of low-energy ions, although only the lighter mass particles appear to have sufficient velocity, on average, to escape to higher altitudes. The observations support two concepts for outflow: (1) The cleft ion fountain consists of ionospheric plasma of 1-20 eV energy streaming upward into the magnetosphere where high-latitude convection electric fields cause poleward dispersion. (2) The auroral ion fountain involves field-aligned beams which flow out along auroral latitude field lines; and, in addition, for late afternoon local times, they experience additional acceleration such that the ion energy distribution tends to exceed the detection range of the instrument (greater than 50-60 eV).

Giles, B. L.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Spacewatch Survey of the Solar System

The purpose of the Spacewatch project is to explore the various populations of small objects throughout the solar system. Statistics on all classes of small bodies are needed to infer their physical and dynamical evolution. More Earth Approachers need to be found to assess the impact hazard. (We have adopted the term "Earth Approacher", EA, to include all those asteroids, nuclei of extinct short period comets, and short period comets that can approach close to Earth. The adjective "near" carries potential confusion, as we have found in communicating with the media, that the objects are always near Earth, following it like a cloud.) Persistent and voluminous accumulation of astrometry of incidentally observed main belt asteroids MBAs will eventually permit the Minor Planet Center (MPQ to determine the orbits of large numbers (tens of thousands) of asteroids. Such a large body of information will ultimately allow better resolution of orbit classes and the determinations of luminosity functions of the various classes, Comet and asteroid recoveries are essential services to planetary astronomy. Statistics of objects in the outer solar system (Centaurs, scattered-disk objects, and Trans-Neptunian Objects; TNOs) ultimately will tell part of the story of solar system evolution. Spacewatch led the development of sky surveying by electronic means and has acted as a responsible interface to the media and general public on this discipline and on the issue of the hazard from impacts by asteroids and comets.

McMillan, Robert S.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Bayesian Analysis of the Power Spectrum of the Cosmic Microwave Background

There is a wealth of cosmological information encoded in the spatial power spectrum of temperature anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background. The sky, when viewed in the microwave, is very uniform, with a nearly perfect blackbody spectrum at 2.7 degrees. Very small amplitude brightness fluctuations (to one part in a million!!) trace small density perturbations in the early universe (roughly 300,000 years after the Big Bang), which later grow through gravitational instability to the large-scale structure seen in redshift surveys... In this talk, I will discuss a Bayesian formulation of this problem; discuss a Gibbs sampling approach to numerically sampling from the Bayesian posterior, and the application of this approach to the first-year data from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe. I will also comment on recent algorithmic developments for this approach to be tractable for the even more massive data set to be returned from the Planck satellite.

Bayesian inference↗

NASA NTRS2012

Implications of Satellite Swath Width on Global Aerosol Optical Thickness Statistics

We assess the impact of swath width on the statistics of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrieved by satellite as inferred from observations made by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We sub-sample the year 2009 MODIS data from both the Terra and Aqua spacecraft along several candidate swaths of various widths. We find that due to spatial sampling there is an uncertainty of approximately 0.01 in the global, annual mean AOT. The sub-sampled monthly mean gridded AOT are within +/- 0.01 of the full swath AOT about 20% of the time for the narrow swath sub-samples, about 30% of the time for the moderate width sub-samples, and about 45% of the time for the widest swath considered. These results suggest that future aerosol satellite missions with only a narrow swath view may not sample the true AOT distribution sufficiently to reduce significantly the uncertainty in aerosol direct forcing of climate.

Colarco, Peter↗

NASA NTRS1999

Publication Bias ( The "File-Drawer Problem") in Scientific Inference

Publication bias arises whenever the probability that a study is published depends on the statistical significance of its results. This bias, often called the file-drawer effect since the unpublished results are imagined to be tucked away in researchers' file cabinets, is potentially a severe impediment to combining the statistical results of studies collected from the literature. With almost any reasonable quantitative model for publication bias, only a small number of studies lost in the file-drawer will produce a significant bias. This result contradicts the well known Fail Safe File Drawer (FSFD) method for setting limits on the potential harm of publication bias, widely used in social, medical and psychic research. This method incorrectly treats the file drawer as unbiased, and almost always miss-estimates the seriousness of publication bias. A large body of not only psychic research, but medical and social science studies, has mistakenly relied on this method to validate claimed discoveries. Statistical combination can be trusted only if it is known with certainty that all studies that have been carried out are included. Such certainty is virtually impossible to achieve in literature surveys.

Scargle, Jeffrey D.↗