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125 records · Page 7

NASA Tech Briefs, January 2011

The topics include: 1) Distributed Aerodynamic Sensing and Processing Toolbox; 2) Collaborative Supervised Learning for Sensor Networks; 3) Hazard Detection Software for Lunar Landing; 4) Onboard Nonlinear Engine Sensor and Component Fault Diagnosis and Isolation Scheme; 5) Network-Capable Application Process and Wireless Intelligent Sensors for ISHM; 6) Interface Supports Multiple Broadcast Transceivers for Flight Applications; 7) FPGA Sequencer for Radar Altimeter Applications; 8) Miniature Sapphire Acoustic Resonator - MSAR; 9) Process-Hardened, Multi-Analyte Sensor for Characterizing Rocket Plume Constituents; 10) SAD5 Stereo Correlation Line-Striping in an FPGA; 11) Hybrid Composite Cryogenic Tank Structure; 12) Nanoscale Deformable Optics; 13) Reliability-Based Design Optimization of a Composite Airframe Component; 14) Zinc Oxide Nanowire Interphase for Enhanced Lightweight Polymer Fiber Composites; 15) Plasma Igniter for Reliable Ignition of Combustion in Rocket Engines; 16) Wire Test Grip Fixture; 17) A Sub-Hertz, Low-Frequency Vibration Isolation Platform; 18) Carbon Nanofibers Synthesized on Selective Substrates for Nonvolatile Memory and 3D Electronics; 19) Nanoparticle/Polymer Nanocomposite Bond Coat or Coating; 20) High-Resolution Wind Measurements for Offshore Wind Energy Development; 21) Spring Tire; 22) Marsviewer 2008; 23) Mission Services Evolution Center Message Bus; 24) Major Constituents Analysis for the Vehicle Cabin Atmosphere Monitor; 25) Astronaut Health Participant Summary Application; 26) Adaption of the AMDIS Method to Flight Status on the VCAM Instrument; 27) Natural Language Interface for Safety Certification of Safety-Critical Software; 28) Cryogenic Caging for Science Instrumentation; 29) Wide-Range Neutron Detector for Space Nuclear Applications; 30) In Situ Guided Wave Structural Health Monitoring System; 31) Multiplexed Energy Coupler for Rotating Equipment; 32) Attitude Estimation in Fractionated Spacecraft Cluster Systems; 33) Full Piezoelectric Multilayer-Stacked Hybrid Actuation/Transduction Systems; 34) Active Flow Effectors for Noise and Separation Control; 35) Method and System for Temporal Filtering in Video Compression Systems; 36) Apparatus for Measuring Total Emissivity of Small, Low-Emissivity Samples; 37) Multiple-Zone Diffractive Optic Element for Laser Ranging Applications; 38) Simplified Architecture for Precise Aiming of a Deep-Space Communication Laser Transceiver; 39) Two-Photon-Absorption Scheme for Optical Beam Tracking; 40) High-Sensitivity, Broad-Range Vacuum Gauge Using Nanotubes for Micromachined Cavities; 41) Wide-Field Optic for Autonomous Acquisition of Laser Link; 42) Extracting Zero-Gravity Surface Figure of a Mirror; 43) Modeling Electromagnetic Scattering From Complex Inhomogeneous Objects; 44) Visual Object Recognition and Tracking of Tools; 45) Method for Implementing Optical Phase Adjustment; 46) Visual SLAM Using Variance Grid Maps; 47) Rapid Calculation of Spacecraft Trajectories Using Efficient Taylor Series Integration; 48) Efficient Kriging Algorithms; 49) Predicting Spacecraft Trajectories by the WeavEncke Method; 50) An Augmentation of G-Guidance Algorithms; 51) Comparison of Aircraft Icing Growth Assessment Software; 52) Silicon-Germanium Voltage-Controlled Oscillator at 105 GHz; 53) Estimation of Coriolis Force and Torque Acting on Ares-1; 54) Null Lens Assembly for X-Ray Mirror Segments; and 55) High-Precision Pulse Generator.

Source record↗

Using the Coronal Evolution to Successfully Forward Model CMEs' In Situ Magnetic Profiles

Predicting the effects of a coronal mass ejection (CME) impact requires knowing if impact will occur, which part of the CME impacts, and its magnetic properties. We explore the relation between CME deflections and rotations, which change the position and orientation of a CME, and the resulting magnetic profiles at 1 AU. For 45 STEREO-era, Earth-impacting CMEs, we determine the solar source of each CME, reconstruct its coronal position and orientation, and perform a ForeCAT (Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory) simulation of the coronal deflection and rotation. From the reconstructed and modeled CME deflections and rotations, we determine the solar cycle variation and correlations with CME properties. We assume no evolution between the outer corona and 1 AU and use the ForeCAT results to drive the ForeCAT In situ Data Observer (FIDO) in situ magnetic field model, allowing for comparisons with ACE and Wind observations. We do not attempt to reproduce the arrival time. On average FIDO reproduces the in situ magnetic field for each vector component with an error equivalent to 35 percent of the average total magnetic field strength when the total modeled magnetic field is scaled to match the average observed value. Random walk best fits distinguish between ForeCAT's ability to determine FIDO's input parameters and the limitations of the simple flux rope model. These best fits reduce the average error to 30 percent.The FIDO results are sensitive to changes of order a degree in the CME latitude, longitude, and tilt, suggesting that accurate space weather predictions require accurate measurements of a CME's position and orientation.

Kay, C.↗

Interplanetary Propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections

Although more than ten thousand coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are produced during each solar cycle at the Sun, only a small fraction hits the Earth. Only a small fraction of the Earth-directed CMEs ultimately arrive at Earth depending on their interaction with the solar wind and other large-scale structures such as coronal holes and CMEs. The interplanetary propagation is essentially controlled by the drag force because the propelling force and the solar gravity are significant only near the Sun. Combined remote-sensing and in situ observations have helped us estimate the influence of the solar wind on the propagation of CMEs. However, these measurements have severe limitations because the remote-sensed and in-situ observations correspond to different portions of the CME. Attempts to overcome this problem are made in two ways: the first is to model the CME and get the space speed of the CME, which can be compared with the in situ speed. The second method is to use stereoscopic observation so that the remote-sensed and in-situ observations make measurements on the Earth-arriving part of CMEs. The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission observed several such CMEs, which helped understand the interplanetary evolution of these CMEs and to test earlier model results. This paper discusses some of these issues and updates the CME/shock travel time estimates for a number of CMEs.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗

Past and Future SOHO-Ulysses Quadratures

With the launch of SOHO, it again became possible to carry out quadrature observations. In comparison with earlier observations, the new capabilities of coronal spectroscopy with UVCS and in situ ionization state and composition with Ulysses/SWICS enabled new types of studies. Results from two studies serve as examples: (i) The acceleration profile of wind from small coronal holes. (ii) A high-coronal reconnecting current sheet as the source of high ionization state Fe in a CME at Ulysses. Generally quadrature observations last only for a few days, when Ulysses is within ca. 5 degrees of the limb. This means luck is required for the phenomenon of interest to lie along the radial direction to Ulysses. However, when Ulysses is at high southern latitude in winter 2007 and high northern latitude in winter 2008, there will be unusually favorable configurations for quadrature observations with SOHO and corresponding bracketing limb observations from STEREO A/B. Specifically, Ulysses will be within 5 degrees of the limb from December 2006 to May 2007 and within 10 degrees of the limb from December 2007 to May 2008. These long-lasting quadratures and bracketing STEREO A/B observations overcome the limitations inherent in the short observation intervals of typical quadratures. Furthermore, ionization and charge state measurements like those on Ulysses will also be made on STEREO and these will be essential for identification of CME ejecta - one of the prime objectives for STEREO.

Suess, Steven↗

Aerosol Source Plume Physical Characteristics from Space-based Multiangle Imaging

Models that assess aerosol effects on regional air quality and global climate parameterize aerosol sources in terms of amount, type, and injection height. The multiangle imaging spectroradiometer (MISR) aboard NASA's Terra satellite retrieves total column aerosol optical thickness (AOT), and aerosol type over cloud-free land and water. A stereo-matching algorithm automatically retrieves reflecting-layer altitude wherever clouds or aerosol plumes have discernable spatial contrast, with about 500-m accuracy, at 1.1-km horizontal resolution. Near-source biomass burning smoke, volcanic effluent, and desert dust plumes are observed routinely, providing information about aerosol amount, particle type, and injection height useful for modeling applications. Compared to background aerosols, the plumes sampled have higher AOT, contain particles having expected differences in Angstrom exponent, size, single-scattering albedo, and for volcanic plume and dust cloud cases, particle shape. As basic thermodynamics predicts, thin aerosol plumes lifted only by regional winds or less intense heat sources are confined to the boundary layer. However, when sources have sufficient buoyancy, the representative plumes studied tend to concentrate within discrete, high-elevation layers of local stability; the aerosol is not uniformly distributed up to a peak altitude, as is sometimes assumed in modeling. MISR-derived plume heights, along with meteorological profile data from other sources, make it possible to relate radiant energy flux observed by the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), also aboard the Terra spacecraft, to convective heat flux that plays a major role in buoyant plume dynamics. A MISR climatology of plume behavior based on these results is being developed.

aerosol plumes↗

Three-Dimensional Coronal Density Structure: 1. Model

The three-dimensional (3-D) density structure of the solar corona is a fundamental boundary condition on the solar wind. Most easily applied models of the global coronal density have been restricted to date to axisymmetric 2-D cases. We present here a 3-D model made up of a superposition of multiple streamers, having distinct gaussian widths in longitude and latitude and both longitudinal and latitudinal dependence of the neutral lines implicit beneath the streamer cores. Nonradiality of streamers and solar B-angle tilt are also explicitly treated. We show how this simple model can capture many of the general properties of coronal white light observations and demonstrate how such a model can assist in the interpretation of the multiple views on coronal structures such as will be provided by the upcoming STEREO mission.

Gibson, S. E.↗

Simulation of Physical Experiments in Immersive Virtual Environments

An object-oriented event-driven immersive Virtual environment is described for the creation of virtual labs (VLs) for simulating physical experiments. Discussion focuses on a number of aspects of the VLs, including interface devices, software objects, and various applications. The VLs interface with output devices, including immersive stereoscopic screed(s) and stereo speakers; and a variety of input devices, including body tracking (head and hands), haptic gloves, wand, joystick, mouse, microphone, and keyboard. The VL incorporates the following types of primitive software objects: interface objects, support objects, geometric entities, and finite elements. Each object encapsulates a set of properties, methods, and events that define its behavior, appearance, and functions. A container object allows grouping of several objects. Applications of the VLs include viewing the results of the physical experiment, viewing a computer simulation of the physical experiment, simulation of the experiments procedure, computational steering, and remote control of the physical experiment. In addition, the VL can be used as a risk-free (safe) environment for training. The implementation of virtual structures testing machines, virtual wind tunnels, and a virtual acoustic testing facility is described.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗

Coronal Mass Ejections: a Summary of Recent Results

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been recognized as the most energetic phenomenon in the heliosphere, deriving their energy from the stressed magnetic fields on the Sun. This paper highlights some of the recent results on CMEs obtained from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) missions. The summary of the talk follows. SOHO observations revealed that the CME rate is almost a factor of two larger than previously thought and varied with the solar activity cycle in a complex way (e.g., high-latitude CMEs occurred in great abundance during the solar maximum years). CMEs were found to interact with other CMEs as well as with other large-scale structures (coronal holes), resulting in deflections and additional particle acceleration. STEREO observations have confirmed the three-dimensional nature of CMEs and the shocks surrounding them. The EUV signatures (flare arcades, corona) dimming, filament eruption, and EUV waves) associated with CMEs have become vital in the identification of solar sources from which CMEs erupt. CMEs with speeds exceeding the characteristic speeds of the corona and the interplanetary medium drive shocks, which produce type II radio bursts. The wavelength range of type II bursts depends on the CME kinetic energy: type II bursts with emission components at all wavelengths (metric to kilometric) are due to CMEs of the highest kinetic energy. Some CMEs, as fast as 1600 km/s do not produce type II bursts, while slow CMEs (400 km/s) occasionally produce type II bursts. These observations can be explained as the variation in the ambient flow speed (solar wind) and the Alfven speed. Not all CME-driven shocks produce type II bursts because either they are subcritical or do not have the appropriate geometry. The same shocks that produce type II bursts also produce solar energetic particles (SEPs), whose release near the Sun seems to be delayed with respect to the onset of type II bursts. This may indicate a subtle difference in the acceleration of the ions and 10 keV electrons needed to produce type II bursts. Surprisingly, some shocks lacking type II bursts are associated with energetic storm particle events (ESPs) pointing to the importance of electron escape from the shock for producing the radio emission. CMEs slow down or accelerate in the interplanetary medium because of the drag force, which modifies the transit time of CMEs and shocks. Halo CMEs that appear to surround the occulting disk were known before the SOHO era as occasional events. During the SOHO era, they became very prominent because of their ability to impact Earth and producing geomagnetic storms. Halo CMEs are generally more energetic than ordinary CMEs, which means they can produce severe impact on Earth's magnetosphere. Their origin close to the disk center of the Sun ensures direct impact on the magnetosphere, although their internal magnetic structure is crucial in causing storms. The solar sources of CMEs that produce SEP events at Earth, on the other hand, are generally in the western hemisphere because of the magnetic connectivity. Thus, CMEs are very interesting from the point of view of plasma physics as well as practical implications because of their space weather impact.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗

Simulation of Energetic Neutral Atoms from Solar Energetic Particles

Energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) provide the only way to observe the acceleration site of coronal-mass-ejection-driven (CME-driven) shock-accelerated solar energetic particles (SEPs). In gradual SEP events, energetic protons can charge exchange with the ambient solar wind or interstellar neutrals to become ENAs. Assuming a CME-driven shock with a constant speed of 1800 km/s and compression ratio of 3.5, propagating from 1.5 to 40 Rs, we calculate the accelerated SEPs at 5-5000 keV and the resulting ENAs via various charge-exchange interactions. Taking into account the ENA losses in the interplanetary medium, we obtain the flux-time profiles of these solar ENAs reaching 1AU.We find that the arriving ENAs at energies above approx.100 keV show a sharply peaked flux-time profile, mainly originating from the shock source below 5 RS, whereas the ENAs below approx. 20 keV have a flat-top time profile, mostly originating from the source beyond 10 Rs. Assuming the accelerated protons are effectively trapped downstream of the shock, we can reproduce the STEREO ENA fluence observations at approx. 2-5 MeV/nucleon. We also estimate the flux of ENAs coming from the charge exchange of energetic storm protons, accelerated by the fast CME-driven shock near 1AU, with interstellar hydrogen and helium. Our results suggest that appropriate instrumentation would be able to detect ENAs from SEPs and to even make ENA images of SEPs at energies above approx.10-20 keV.

sun↗

The Impact of MISR-Derived Injection Height Initialization on Wildfire and Volcanic Plume Dispersion in the HYSPLIT Model

The dispersion of particles from wildfires, volcanic eruptions, dust storms, and other aerosol sources can affect air quality and other environmental factors downwind. Aerosol injection height is one source attribute that mediates downwind dispersion, as wind speed and direction can vary dramatically with elevation. Using plume heights derived from space-based, multi-angle imaging, we examine the impact of initializing plumes with satellite-measured vs. nominal (model-calculated or VAAC observations) injection height on the simulated dispersion of six large aerosol plumes. When there are significant differences in nominal vs. satellite-derived particle injection heights, or if one injection height is within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and the other is above the PBL, differences in simulation results can arise. In the cases studied with significant nominal vs. satellite-derived injection height differences, the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory's Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model tends to represent plume evolution better if the injection height in the model is constrained by hyper-stereo satellite retrievals.

Plume heights↗

Imaging Science Requirements for a Uranus Flagship Mission

Introduction: Our presentation will summarize the requirements for UV/Visible/Near-IR remote-sensing imaging science instruments (including mapping spectrometers) envisioned for the Uranus Orbiter and Probe (UOP) mission recommended by the recent planetary decadal survey. The Uranus system offers many targets for imaging investigations. Imaging science investigations are crucial to answering fundamental questions about various physical processes that shape the Uranian system and drive its evolution. Each science objective addressed through imaging has requirements for observation and illumination geometries as well as coverage and resolution in the spatial, spectral and temporal dimensions. By combining the requirements for the diverse science targets in the Uranian system, we present a set of overarching imaging science requirements for UOP. Atmospheric Science: The study of Uranus’ atmosphere is crucial in understanding the planet's energy balance and interior heat flux. Imaging observations map how the atmosphere scatters incident solar radiation. Imaging is key to characterizing planetary-scale energy/material transport though global atmospheric dynamics and local meteorology. Hyperspectral mapping combined with radiative transfer analysis reveals the vertical distribution of clouds and hazes. Chronicling temporal variabilities of atmospheric features is key to understanding the various processes that operate within the dynamic Uranian atmosphere. A comprehensive understanding of Uranus' atmosphere is essential in deciphering the planet's origins and evolution as well as providing insight into the broader field of planetary and exoplanetary science. Magnetospheric Interactions: Imaging science is critical to understand the elusive Uranian aurorae. Mapping the aurorae and their temporal dynamics will reveal the interaction of Uranus’ complex magnetosphere with the solar wind. The apparent decades-long cooling of Uranus’ upper atmosphere is thought to be due to changes in energy input from the overlying magnetosphere, and so mapping and quantifying the auroral evidence for this energy flux is particularly relevant for upper atmospheric science In addition, Uranus’ large moons may generate auroral footprints, which can be used to constrain the planet’s unusual magnetic field structure. Satellite Interiors: Imaging science can address the potential habitability of the larger moons of Uranus by measuring their shapes and rotational states (including librations), which combined with gravity data are crucial to understanding their internal density structure. Satellite Origins: Origin markers such as organics and volatiles may be preserved on the satellite surfaces, which may be sensed by UV/IR mapping. Imaging combined with the moons’ densities may reveal whether the moons formed in Uranus’ circumplanetary disk, rings, or from ejecta of a giant impact on Uranus. Satellite Geology: Imaging investigations, including stereo imaging to obtain topography, will enable constraining each satellite’s geologic history by investigating the distributions and morphologies of impact craters, tectonic and potential cryovolcanic features, and regolith and mass wasting deposits. These records will help unravel the past complex history of orbital resonances that occurred between Uranian satellites, which may have driven geologic activity. Analyses of these features will also point to resurfacing styles and modification processes important for understanding each moon’s thermal evolution, and any present-day geological activity, including potential subsurface deep oceans or possible current activity. Additionally, hyperspectral imaging will enable mapping the surface composition and identifying the potential presence of material that may point to a subsurface ocean, such as ammonia-bearing species. Rings and Small Moons: Imaging observations elucidate the physical processes that contribute to the complex ring-moon system’s inferred unstable state. Imaging surveys will seek smaller moons and other debris that could provide evidence of past collisions, while precise astrometric data of moons will determine the current dynamical state of the system. Many of Uranus' rings are exceptionally narrow, and images of the rings covering a broad range of longitudes, and high-resolution images of features within the rings will reveal how these rings are confined and maintained, as well as illustrating the rings' internal structure and dynamics. Images of the rings and moons obtained at a variety of wavelengths and lighting conditions are also needed to quantify the composition and the size distribution of the small satellites and ring particles.

K M Sayanagi↗

Analyzing Space Weather at Mars with MAVEN

To understand the processes driving Martian atmospheric escape to space, the MAVEN mission has been monitoring solar inputs at Mars since the spacecraft went into orbit in September 2014. MAVEN’s payload provides in situ measurements of solar wind ions and electrons, solar energetic particles, extreme ultraviolet radiation, and magnetic fields. With this comprehensive suite of instruments, the MAVEN team has monitored space weather at Mars for nearly a decade, over various parts of Solar Cycles 24 and 25. MAVEN observations have determined that space weather activity can deposit enough energy into the Martian system to enhance atmospheric escape by an order of magnitude. As the mission continues, monitoring space weather at Mars has become increasingly important to understand the Sun’s influence on the Martian environment. The MAVEN team provides regular reports of space weather activity, such as the occurrence and arrival time of coronal mass ejections as well as flare magnitude and peak times, to the Mars community when predictions suggest that a space weather-impacting event may be directed towards Mars. MAVEN provides observations of solar activity on the ‘far side’ of the Sun when Earth and Mars are near solar conjunction to augment measurements of solar observatories (e.g., SDO, STEREO, GOES, PSP, Solar Orbiter), providing a more global coverage of solar activity. Additionally, MAVEN is working closely with the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and the Moon to Mars (M2M) Space Weather Analysis Office, both located at NASA GSFC, to form the Mars Space Weather Collaboration. This collaboration utilizes MAVEN observations of space weather activity to facilitate model and prediction validation while creating tools that are available to the science community. These activities are in support of future human and robotic exploration as we identify needs to enhance current capabilities for analyzing space weather at Mars.

Gina A DiBraccio↗

Constraints on Wildfire Smoke Source Strength, Injection Height, and Particle Evolution

Aerosol sources are represented in climate and air quality models with an injection height and a source strength. We have applied a combination of Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations to help constrain these two key model variables for wildfire smoke plumes. Injection height is obtained from MISR stereo imagery, which makes it possible to map plume elevation and estimate the associated motion vectors at plume altitude near-source, where contrast features in the plume can be identified in the multi-angle views. A current limitation of injection-height mapping is the relatively narrow MISR swath width (~380 km) and 10:30 AM equator crossing time on the day side of Earth. However, upcoming missions, as well as advanced imagers on geostationary platforms, promise to greatly expand the spatial and temporal range over which this technique can be applied. We estimate source strength by matching forward-simulated plume aerosol optical depth (AOD) from models with AOD snapshots retrieved from MODIS observations. This technique works best for large, isolated plumes common in boreal forest, and tends to fail where plume AOD is low and/or background AOD, distinct from the specific source of interest, is high. These two approaches for constraining aerosol modeling with satellite observations have been the subject of ongoing AeroCom/AeroSat studies by our group. A third effort applies the combination of MISR plume heights, wind vectors, and particle microphysical property constraints to infer smoke-plume particle evolution processes and timescales, including the emission and subsequent evolution of black and brown smoke. In this presentation, we will provide an update on the status of these efforts.

wildfire↗

Bringing "Scientific Expeditions" Into the Schools

Two new technologies, the FASTexpedition and Remote FAST, have been developed that provide remote, 3D, high resolution, dynamic, interactive viewing of scientific data (such as simulations or measurements of fluid dynamics). The FASTexpedition permits one to access scientific data from the World Wide Web, take guided expeditions through the data, and continue with self controlled expeditions through the data. Remote FAST permits collaborators at remote sites to simultaneously view an analysis of scientific data being controlled by one of the collaborators. Control can be transferred between sites. These technologies are now being used for remote collaboration in joint university, industry, and NASA projects in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and wind tunnel testing. Also, NASA Ames Research Center has initiated a project to make scientific data and guided expeditions through the data available as FASTexpeditions on the World Wide Web for educational purposes. Previously, remote visualiZation of dynamic data was done using video format (transmitting pixel information) such as video conferencing or MPEG movies on the Internet. The concept for this new technology is to send the raw data (e.g., grids, vectors, and scalars) along with viewing scripts over the Internet and have the pixels generated by a visualization tool running on the viewer's local workstation. The visualization tool that is currently used is FAST (Flow Analysis Software Toolkit). The advantages of this new technology over using video format are: 1. The visual is much higher in resolution (1280xl024 pixels with 24 bits of color) than typical video format transmitted over the network. 2. The form of the visualization can be controlled interactively (because the viewer is interactively controlling the visualization tool running on his workstation). 3. A rich variety of guided expeditions through the data can be included easily. 4. A capability is provided for other sites to see a visual analysis of one site as the analysis is interactively performed. Control of the analysis can be passed from site to site. 5. The scenes can be viewed in 3D using stereo vision. 6. The network bandwidth used for the visualization using this new technology is much smaller than when using video format. (The measured peak bandwidth used was 1 Kbit/sec whereas the measured bandwidth for a small video picture was 500 Kbits/sec.)

Watson, Val↗

CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting

Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weather science now encompasses the whole heliospheric system, and multipoint measurements of solar transients can provide useful insights and validations for prediction models. In this work, we aim to analyze the whole inner heliospheric context between two eruptive flares that took place in late 2020, that is, the M4.4 flare of 29 November and the C7.4 flare of 7 December. This period is especially interesting because the STEREO-A spacecraft was located ∼60° east of the Sun–Earth line, giving us the opportunity to test the capabilities of “predictions at 360°” using remote-sensing observations from the Lagrange L1 and L5 points as input. We simulate the CMEs that were ejected during our period of interest and the SEPs accelerated by their shocks using the WSA–Enlil–SEPMOD modeling chain and four sets of input parameters, forming a “mini-ensemble.” We validate our results using in situ observations at six locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that, despite some limitations arising from the models' architecture and assumptions, CMEs and shock-accelerated SEPs can be reasonably studied and forecast in real time at least out to several tens of degrees away from the eruption site using the prediction tools employed here.

Coronal mass ejections↗

Overview and Initial Results of SAND-E: Semi-Autonomous Navigation for Detrital Environments

Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and automated terrain analysis for science and navigation are new technologies for planetary exploration. The Mars Helicopter will fly with the Mars2020 rover, the Dragonfly quadcopter will explore Titan, and Soil Properties and Object Classification (SPOC) software will be used for path planning and navigation on the Mars2020 rover. Using an Argo J5 rover instrumented with stereo cameras and Autonomous Soil Assessment System (ASAS) software, and an off the shelf quadcopter, SAND-E tested the use of automated terrain analysis and UAS data for science operations in a Mars-analog environment in Iceland during July of 2019. Scientifically, we sought to determine changes in the physical and chemical properties of sediments along a glacial-fluvial-aeolian transport pathway. Operationally, we tested rover mission-like scenarios that included UAS images and classified terrain images. Here, we present the initial results for both the operations and science elements of the study. Site Selection: A goal of SAND-E is examine sorting and alteration of sediments in fluvial and aeolian environments in both mineral-dominated and glass-dominated basaltic settings. During the first year of the project we focused on a mineral-dominated environment. Selection of the location was based on prior publications that indicated our selected region had a greater abundance of crystalline sediments than other areas fluvial-aeolian settings in Iceland. Other criteria included the presence of both fluvial and aeolian landforms along a transport pathway such that the sediments in transport could be linked to their source rocks. We chose the Skjaldbreidauhraun glacial outwash plain, which sits at the base of Thórisjökull glacier. The site is 30 km north of Thingvellir National Park and ~2 hours from Reykjavik. The outwash plain is fed by two small catchments that drain from the base of the glacier and cut through hyaloclastite and shield volcano bedrock. The drainage progresses from steep alluvial fans near the glacier into a low-sloping fluvial braidplain that becomes confined by the Skjaldbreidur shield volcano and creates a shallow canyon cut into lava bedrock. The fluvial system was a typical braided alluvial environment composed pebble- and cobble-bedded longitudinal bars and sandy channel beds. The river remained active and fluctuated in response to diurnal runoff cycles near the glacier before disappearing into the sandy substrate downstream. The high concentration of suspended sediment in the river was evident by the cloudy water and the silt and clay-sized sediments that draped the channel beds after abandonment and created playas in the lowest sloping areas of the catchment. The entire fluvial system was affected by the winds generated by frontal systems and katabatic flows descending the glacier. This resulted in the formation of aeolian lag deposits and a wind-deflation plain where the fluvial system was not active. Wind ripples and drifts formed in abandoned fluvial channels from aeolian reworking of the sand-sized fluvial sediments. The silt- and clay-sized sediments found in fluvial channels, bar tops, and playas generated dust plumes during high wind events. Our operation sought to capture the variability in this system by sampling from the range of fluvial and aeolian features 6.3 km (proximal), 11.3 km (medial), and 14.4 km (distal) along the river from its origin at the base of glacier.

Ewing, R. C.↗

Whistler Waves Associated with Weak Interplanetary Shocks

We analyze the properties of 98 weak interplanetary shocks measured by the dual STEREO spacecraft over approximately 3 years during the past solar minimum. We study the occurrence of whistler waves associated with these shocks, which on average are high beta shocks (0.2 < Beta < 10). We have compared the waves properties upstream and downstream of the shocks. In the upstream region the waves are mainly circularly polarized, and in most of the cases (approx. 75%) they propagate almost parallel to the ambient magnetic field (<30 deg.). In contrast, the propagation angle with respect to the shock normal varies in a broad range of values (20 deg. to 90 deg.), suggesting that they are not phase standing. We find that the whistler waves can extend up to 100,000 km in the upstream region but in most cases (88%) are contained in a distance within 30,000 km from the shock. This corresponds to a larger region with upstream whistlers associated with IP shocks than previously reported in the literature. The maximum amplitudes of the waves are observed next to the shock interface, and they decrease as the distance to the shock increases. In most cases the wave propagation direction becomes more aligned with the magnetic field as the distance to the shock increases. These two facts suggest that most of the waves in the upstream region are Landau damping as they move away from the shock. From the analysis we also conclude that it is likely that the generation mechanism of the upstream whistler waves is taking place at the shock interface. In the downstream region, the waves are irregularly polarized, and the fluctuations are very compressive; that is, the compressive component of the wave clearly dominates over the transverse one. The majority of waves in the downstream region (95%) propagate at oblique angles with respect to the ambient magnetic field (>60 deg.). The wave propagation with respect to the shock-normal direction has no preferred direction and varies similarly to the upstream case. It is possible that downstream fluctuations are generated by ion relaxation as suggested in previous hybrid simulation shocks.

Whistler waves↗