Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “stochastic behavior”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Patchy nuclear chain reactions

Stochastic fluctuations of the neutron population within a nuclear reactor are typically prevented by operating the core at a sufficient power, since a deterministic (i.e., exactly predictable) behavior of the neutron population is required by automatic safety systems to detect unwanted power excursions. In order to characterize the reactor operating conditions at which the fluctuations vanish, an experiment was designed and took place in 2017 at the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Reactor Critical Facility. This experiment however revealed persisting fluctuations and striking patchy spatial patterns in neutron spatial distributions. Here we report these experimental findings, interpret them by a stochastic modeling based on branching random walks, and extend them using a “numerical twin” of the reactor core. Consequences on nuclear safety will be discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Social network structure and the spread of complex contagions from a population genetics perspective

Ideas, behaviors, and opinions spread through social networks. If the probability of spreading to a new individual is a non-linear function of the fraction of the individuals’ affected neighbors, such a spreading process becomes a “complex contagion”. This non-linearity does not typically appear with physically spreading infections, but instead can emerge when the concept that is spreading is subject to game theoretical considerations (e.g. for choices of strategy or behavior) or psychological effects such as social reinforcement and other forms of peer influence (e.g. for ideas, preferences, or opinions). Here we study how the stochastic dynamics of such complex contagions are affected by the underlying network structure. Motivated by simulations of complex contagions on real social networks, we present a framework for analyzing the statistics of contagions with arbitrary non-linear adoption probabilities based on the mathematical tools of population genetics. The central idea is to use an effective lower-dimensional diffusion process to approximate the statistics of the contagion. This leads to a tradeoff between the effects of ”selection” (microscopic tendencies for an idea to spread or die out), random drift, and network structure. Our framework illustrates intuitively several key properties of complex contagions: stronger community structure and network sparsity can significantly enhance the spread, while broad degree distributions dampen the effect of selection compared to random drift. Finally, we show that some structural features can exhibit critical values that demarcate regimes where global contagions become possible for networks of arbitrary size. Our results draw parallels between the competition of genes in a population and memes in a world of minds and ideas. Our tools provide insight into the spread of information, behaviors, and ideas via social influence, and highlight the role of macroscopic network structure in determining their fate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Conditional Point Sampling: A Monte Carlo Method for Radiation Transport in Stochastic Media.

Current methods for stochastic media transport are either computationally expensive or, by nature, approximate. Moreover, none of the well-developed, benchmarked approximate methods can compute the variance caused by the stochastic mixing, a quantity especially important to safety calculations. Therefore, we derive and apply a new conditional probability function (CPF) for use in the recently developed stochastic media transport algorithm Conditional Point Sampling (CoPS), which 1) leverages the full intra-particle memory of CoPS to yield errorless computation of stochastic media outputs in 1D, binary, Markovian-mixed media, and 2) leverages the full inter-particle memory of CoPS and the recently developed Embedded Variance Deconvolution method to yield computation of the variance in transport outputs caused by stochastic material mixing. Numerical results demonstrate errorless stochastic media transport as compared to reference benchmark solutions with the new CPF for this class of stochastic mixing as well as the ability to compute the variance caused by the stochastic mixing via CoPS. Using previously derived, non-errorless CPFs, CoPS is further found to be more accurate than the atomic mix approximation, Chord Length Sampling (CLS), and most of memory-enhanced versions of CLS surveyed. In addition, we study the compounding behavior of CPF error as a function of cohort size (where a cohort is a group of histories that share intra-particle memory) and recommend that small cohorts be used when computing the variance in transport outputs caused by stochastic mixing.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Shape‐Dependent Multi‐Weight Magnetic Artificial Synapses for Neuromorphic Computing

Abstract In neuromorphic computing, artificial synapses provide a multi‐weight (MW) conductance state that is set based on inputs from neurons, analogous to the brain. Herein, artificial synapses based on magnetic materials that use a magnetic tunnel junction (MTJ) and a magnetic domain wall (DW) are explored. By fabricating lithographic notches in a DW track underneath a single MTJ, 3–5 stable resistance states that can be repeatably controlled electrically using spin‐orbit torque are achieved. The effect of geometry on the synapse behavior is explored, showing that a trapezoidal device has asymmetric weight updates with high controllability, while a rectangular device has higher stochasticity, but with stable resistance levels. The device data is input into neuromorphic computing simulators to show the usefulness of application‐specific synaptic functions. Implementing an artificial neural network (NN) applied to streamed Fashion‐MNIST data, the trapezoidal magnetic synapse can be used as a metaplastic function for efficient online learning. Implementing a convolutional NN for CIFAR‐100 image recognition, the rectangular magnetic synapse achieves near‐ideal inference accuracy, due to the stability of its resistance levels. This work shows MW magnetic synapses are a feasible technology for neuromorphic computing and provides design guidelines for emerging artificial synapse technologies.

Leonard, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scalable probabilistic estimates of electric vehicle charging given observed driver behavior

To prepare for rapid growth in global electric vehicle adoption, grid and policy planners depend on detailed forecasts of future charging demand. In this paper we propose a novel holistic, scalable, probabilistic framework to produce large-scale estimates of electric vehicle charging load for long-term planning that capture real drivers’ charging patterns. Our framework captures the uncertainty and stochasticity in charging demand by taking a graphical modeling approach. It has three core elements: driver groups, charging segment choices, and charging session time and energy requirements. The framework uses hierarchical clustering to group drivers by their charging histories, capturing their heterogeneous behaviors and preferences across different segments or types of charging. The framework uses probabilistic mixture models for each driver group’s sessions to identify the unique charging behaviors observed within each segment. We illustrate its application with a large data set from California, profiling the charging patterns and unique driver clusters it identifies. Using the model knobs representing drivers’ battery capacities, behavior, and segment access we present scenarios for California’s charging demand in 2030 with 8 million passenger electric vehicles. Peak charging demand ranged from 3.3 to 8.7 GW across scenarios. Furthermore, each was calculated in under 45 s on a laptop computer.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Defining Reactivity–Deconstructability Relationships for Copolymerizations Involving Cleavable Comonomer Additives

The incorporation of cleavable comonomers as additives into polymers can imbue traditional polymers with controlled deconstructability and expanded end-of-life options. The efficiency with which cleavable comonomer additives (CCAs) can enable deconstruction is sensitive to their local distribution within a copolymer backbone, which is dictated by their copolymerization behavior. While qualitative heuristics exist that describe deconstructability, comprehensive quantitative connections between CCA loadings, reactivity ratios, polymerization mechanisms, and deconstruction reactions on the deconstruction efficiency of copolymers containing CCAs have not been established. Here, in this work, we broadly define these relationships using stochastic simulations characterizing various polymerization mechanisms (e.g., controlled/living, free-radical, and reversible ring-opening polymerizations), reactivity ratio pairs (spanning 2 orders of magnitude between 0.01 and 100), CCA loadings (2.5% to 20%), and deconstruction reactions (e.g., comonomer sequence-dependent deconstruction behavior). We show general agreement between simulated and experimentally observed deconstruction fragment sizes from the literature, demonstrating the predictive power of the methods used herein. These results will guide the development of more efficient CCAs and inform the formulation of deconstructable materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Managing Uncertainty and Flexibility in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets

Net load imbalances from day ahead forecasts can lead to significant grid operations costs and are expected to increase as variable renewable energy adoption grows. We propose a new wholesale market product to manage the risk of net load imbalances called Flexibility Options. This product relies on probabilistic forecasts to estimate flexibility demand and would be co-optimized in the day-ahead market. We also propose stochastic methods that enable DER and flexible load aggregators to participate in flexibility markets while considering the uncertainty in weather and occupant behavior.

day-ahead market↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

CFD↗
DOE OSTI2021

Surrogate approximation of the Grad–Shafranov free boundary problem via stochastic collocation on sparse grids

In magnetic confinement fusion devices, the equilibrium configuration of a plasma is determined by the balance between the hydrostatic pressure in the fluid and the magnetic forces generated by an array of external coils and the plasma itself. The location of the plasma is not known a priori and must be obtained as the solution to a free boundary problem. The partial differential equation that determines the behavior of the combined magnetic field depends on a set of physical parameters (location of the coils, intensity of the electric currents going through them, magnetic permeability, etc.) that are subject to uncertainty and variability. The confinement region is in turn a function of these stochastic parameters as well. In this work, we consider variations on the current intensities running through the external coils as the dominant source of uncertainty. This leads to a parameter space of dimension equal to the number of coils in the reactor. With the aid of a surrogate function built on a sparse grid in parameter space, a Monte Carlo strategy is used to explore the effect that stochasticity in the parameters has on important features of the plasma boundary such as the location of the x-point, the strike points, and shaping attributes such as triangularity and elongation. Furthermore, the use of the surrogate function reduces the time required for the Monte Carlo simulations by factors that range between 7 and over 30.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Switching Dynamics in Vanadium Dioxide-Based Stochastic Thermal Neurons

We report on switching dynamics of individual and coupled vanadium dioxide (VO 2 ) devices subject to voltage pulses as the temperature is systematically varied from room temperature spanning the insulator–metal transition (IMT) temperature. The switching voltage of single devices has a strong relationship with both temperature and voltage pulsewidth. Two-step switching in connected VO 2 devices has been noted in current transient plots and was found to depend on temperature, pulsewidth, and pulse amplitude. Experimental switching behavior measured from VO 2 artificial neurons was implemented into a spiking neural network (SNN). During training, modulating the switching voltage via temperature affords a novel method to implement homeostasis with the coupled devices. Simulation results show the efficacy of the stochastic neuronal characteristics and the proposed homeostasis mechanism on a standard digit recognition task. As a result, these studies contribute to ongoing efforts in neuromorphic computing exploiting collective phase transitions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Anharmonic lattice dynamics and superionic transition in AgCrSe 2

Intrinsically low lattice thermal conductivity ( κ l a t ) in superionic conductors is of great interest for energy conversion applications in thermoelectrics. Yet, the complex atomic dynamics leading to superionicity and ultralow thermal conductivity remain poorly understood. Here, we report a comprehensive study of the lattice dynamics and superionic diffusion in A g C r S e 2 from energy- and momentum-resolved neutron and X-ray scattering techniques, combined with first-principles calculations. Our results settle unresolved questions about the lattice dynamics and thermal conduction mechanism in A g C r S e 2 . We find that the heat-carrying long-wavelength transverse acoustic (TA) phonons coexist with the ultrafast diffusion of Ag ions in the superionic phase, while the short-wavelength nondispersive TA phonons break down. Strong scattering of phonon quasiparticles by anharmonicity and Ag disorder are the origin of intrinsically low κ l a t . The breakdown of short-wavelength TA phonons is directly related to the Ag diffusion, with the vibrational spectral weight associated to Ag oscillations evolving into stochastic decaying fluctuations. Furthermore, the origin of fast ionic diffusion is shown to arise from extended flat basins in the energy landscape and collective hopping behavior facilitated by strong repulsion between Ag ions. These results provide fundamental insights into the complex atomic dynamics of superionic conductors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Implicit learning of convective organization explains precipitation stochasticity

Accurate prediction of precipitation intensity is crucial for both human and natural systems, especially in a warming climate more prone to extreme precipitation. Yet, climate models fail to accurately predict precipitation intensity, particularly extremes. One missing piece of information in traditional climate model parameterizations is subgrid-scale cloud structure and organization, which affects precipitation intensity and stochasticity at coarse resolution. Here, using global storm-resolving simulations and machine learning, we show that, by implicitly learning subgrid organization, we can accurately predict precipitation variability and stochasticity with a low-dimensional set of latent variables. Using a neural network to parameterize coarse-grained precipitation, we find that the overall behavior of precipitation is reasonably predictable using large-scale quantities only; however, the neural network cannot predict the variability of precipitation (R 2 ~ 0.45) and underestimates precipitation extremes. The performance is significantly improved when the network is informed by our organization metric, correctly predicting precipitation extremes and spatial variability (R 2 ~ 0.9). The organization metric is implicitly learned by training the algorithm on a high-resolution precipitable water field, encoding the degree of subgrid organization. The organization metric shows large hysteresis, emphasizing the role of memory created by subgrid-scale structures. We demonstrate that this organization metric can be predicted as a simple memory process from information available at the previous time steps. These findings stress the role of organization and memory in accurate prediction of precipitation intensity and extremes and the necessity of parameterizing subgrid-scale convective organization in climate models to better project future changes of water cycle and extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effect of void positioning on the detonation sensitivity of a heterogeneous energetic material

We show although it is well-established that voids profoundly influence the initiation and reaction behaviors of heterogeneous energetic materials such as polymer-bonded explosives (PBX) and propellants, there has been little study of how void location in different constituents in the microstructures of such materials affect the macroscale behavior. Here, we use three-dimensional (3D) mesoscale simulations to study how void placement within the reactive grains versus the polymer binder influences the shock-to-detonation transition (SDT) in a polymer-bonded explosive. The material studied here has a microstructure comprised of 75% PETN (pentaerythritol tetranitrate) grains and 25% HTPB (hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene) polymer binder by volume. Porosities up to 10% in the form of spherical voids distributed in both the grains and polymer are considered. An Arrhenius reactive burn relation is used to model the chemical kinetics of the PETN grains under shock loading, thereby resolving the heterogeneous detonation behavior of the PBX. The influence of void location on the shock initiation sensitivity of the material is quantitatively ranked by comparing the predicted run distance to detonation (RDD) for each sample. The analysis includes inherent quantification of uncertainties arising from the stochastic variations in the microstructure morphologies and void distributions by using statistically equivalent microstructure sample sets (SEMSS), leading to probabilistic formulations for the RDD as a function of shock pressure. The calculations reveal that the location of voids in the composite microstructure significantly affects the RDD. Specifically, voids exclusively within the grains cause the PBX to be more sensitive (having shorter RDD) than voids in the polymer binder. Unique probabilistic relationships are derived to map the probability of observing RDD for each void location material case, allowing for prediction of initiation behavior anywhere in the shock pressure – RDD space. These findings agree with trends reported in the literature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-fidelity Uncertainty Quantification for Homogenization Problems in Structure-Property Relationships from Crystal Plasticity Finite Elements

Crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM) has been an integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) workhorse to study materials behaviors and structure-property relationships for the last few decades. These relations are mappings from the microstructure space to the materials properties space. Due to the stochastic and random nature of microstructures, there is always some uncertainty associated with materials properties, for example, in homogenized stress-strain curves. For critical applications with strong reliability needs, it is often desirable to quantify the microstructure-induced uncertainty in the context of structure-property relationships. However, this uncertainty quantification (UQ) problem often incurs a large computational cost because many statistically equivalent representative volume elements (SERVEs) are needed. In this article, we apply a multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) method to CPFEM to study the uncertainty in stress-strain curves, given an ensemble of SERVEs at multiple mesh resolutions. By using the information at coarse meshes, we show that it is possible to approximate the response at fine meshes with a much reduced computational cost. We focus on problems where the model output is multi-dimensional, which requires us to track multiple quantities of interest (QoIs) at the same time. In conclusion, our numerical results show that MLMC can accelerate UQ tasks around 2.23x, compared to the classical Monte Carlo (MC) method, which is widely known as ensemble average in the CPFEM literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bridging molecular-scale interfacial science with continuum-scale models

Solid–water interfaces are crucial for clean water, conventional and renewable energy, and effective nuclear waste management. However, reflecting the complexity of reactive interfaces in continuum-scale models is a challenge, leading to oversimplified representations that often fail to predict real-world behavior. This is because these models use fixed parameters derived by averaging across a wide physicochemical range observed at the molecular scale. Recent studies have revealed the stochastic nature of molecular-level surface sites that define a variety of reaction mechanisms, rates, and products even across a single surface. To bridge the molecular knowledge and predictive continuum-scale models, we propose to represent surface properties with probability distributions rather than with discrete constant values derived by averaging across a heterogeneous surface. This conceptual shift in continuum-scale modeling requires exponentially rising computational power. By incorporating our molecular-scale understanding of solid–water interfaces into continuum-scale models we can pave the way for next generation critical technologies and novel environmental solutions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust Deep Gaussian Process-Based Probabilistic Electrical Load Forecasting Against Anomalous Events

The abnormal events, such as the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic, can significantly change the load behaviors, leading to huge challenges for traditional short-term forecasting methods. This article proposes a robust deep Gaussian processes (DGP)-based probabilistic load forecasting method using a limited number of data. Since the proposed method only requires a limited number of training samples for load forecasting, it allows us to deal with extreme scenarios that cause short-term load behavior changes. In particular, the load forecasting at the beginning of abnormal event is cast as a regression problem with limited training samples and solved by double stochastic variational inference DGP. The mobility data are also utilized to deal with the uncertainties and pattern changes and enhance the flexibility of the forecasting model. The proposed method can quantify the uncertainties of load forecasting outcomes, which would be essential under uncertain inputs. Extensive comparison results with other state-of-the-art point and probabilistic forecasting methods show that our proposed approach can achieve high forecasting accuracies with only a limited number of data while maintaining the excellent performance of capturing the forecasting uncertainties.

anomalous events↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microstructure Clones

Microstructure drives component behavior. Contemporary crystal plasticity studies compare strain measurements of polycrystal specimens to models. Because each specimen is unique, it is impossible to know which differences are significant. In this project, we invented microstructure clones and explored their use in understanding crystal plasticity. Microstructure clones are specimens with nearly identical microstructures, which allows for multiple destructive tests of a microstructure, insight into how a specimen will deform, variability quantification, and the ability to measure the effects of microstructural changes. Several sets of microstructure clones, pure nickel tensile bars, were tested. The techniques of digital image correlation, crystal plasticity finite element analysis, high resolution electron backscatter diffraction, transmission electron microscopy, and dislocation dynamics were used to understand the structural behavior of these microstructures. This work reshapes the fields of crystal plasticity and structure-property relationships by providing a technique to control for specific variables, quantify microstructural stochasticity, and replicate experiments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Score-based deterministic density sampling

We propose a deterministic sampling framework using Score-Based Transport Modeling for sampling an unnormalized target density π given only its score ∇ log π. Our method approximates the Wasserstein gradient flow on KL($f_t$∥π) by learning the time-varying score ∇ log $f_t$ on the fly using score matching. While having the same marginal distribution as Langevin dynamics, our method produces smooth deterministic trajectories, resulting in monotone noise-free convergence. We prove that our method dissipates relative entropy at the same rate as the exact gradient flow, provided sufficient training. Numerical experiments validate our theoretical findings: our method converges at the optimal rate, has smooth trajectories, and is often more sample efficient than its stochastic counterpart. Experiments on high-dimensional image data show that our method produces high-quality generations in as few as 15 steps and exhibits natural exploratory behavior. The memory and runtime scale linearly in the sample size.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗