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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Joint optimization of land carbon uptake and albedo can help achieve moderate instantaneous and long-term cooling effects

Abstract Both carbon dioxide uptake and albedo of the land surface affect global climate. However, climate change mitigation by increasing carbon uptake can cause a warming trade-off by decreasing albedo, with most research focusing on afforestation and its interaction with snow. Here, we present carbon uptake and albedo observations from 176 globally distributed flux stations. We demonstrate a gradual decline in maximum achievable annual albedo as carbon uptake increases, even within subgroups of non-forest and snow-free ecosystems. Based on a paired-site permutation approach, we quantify the likely impact of land use on carbon uptake and albedo. Shifting to the maximum attainable carbon uptake at each site would likely cause moderate net global warming for the first approximately 20 years, followed by a strong cooling effect. A balanced policy co-optimizing carbon uptake and albedo is possible that avoids warming on any timescale, but results in a weaker long-term cooling effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Snow ALbedo eVOlution (SALVO) Campaign Broadband Albedo from April - June, 2024 in Utqiagivk, AK level a1

A field-portable broadband (285 – 2800 nm) albedometer was used to make spatially distributed albedo measurements on tundra and sea ice surfaces. The albedometer consists of paired upward-looking and downward-looking pyranometers, which were both connected to a data logger. The instrument was mounted approximately 1 m above the surface using a tripod and was placed on a 1.4 m-long boom to minimize the impacts of shading from the operator and to observe surfaces undisturbed by footprints (see Appendix for photos of measurement setup and uncertainty assessment). Albedo measurements were taken parallel to the 200-m albedo lines at 5-m increments (41 measurements) ~1.2 m south of the line. On the operator’s end of the boom, there was a bubble level that was aligned with the bubble level on the upward-looking pyranometer. To take a measurement, the operator first relocated the tripod to the measurement location, then leveled the instrument and held it level for at least twice the pyranometers’ response time (5 or 15 seconds, see below), and finally depressed a trigger on the data logger. The data logger recorded the instantaneous voltage on both pyranometers, the measurement number, and the time. The data logger also converted the voltages to irradiances, and from these computed the ratio (outgoing/incoming) for albedo, which could be checked in the field. The operator recorded in a field notebook the measurement number that corresponded with the locations on the line and any pertinent notes (e.g., invalid measurements). With this setup, a trained operator could measure a 200-m albedo line (41 measurements) in approximately 30 minutes. Measurements were made within 3 hours of solar noon. The data logger had sufficient storage capacity to record all measurements from the campaign, but data were downloaded to a computer after each measurement day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Aridity-Dependent Land Surface Skin Temperature Biases in CMIP5/6

Land surface skin temperature, a critical indicator of climate change, connects the water and energy cycles between the land and the atmosphere. Here, in this study, we evaluate the simulations of land surface skin temperature from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 models with satellite-based datasets and reanalysis. We find systematic cold skin temperature biases over arid regions in CMIP5/CMIP6 simulations. Over arid and semi-arid regions, latent heat biases drive skin temperature biases by evaporative cooling. Over humid regions, surface downward shortwave and albedo biases are relatively more critical. Spatial patterns of biases remain similar in the latest CMIP6 simulations, suggesting systematic biases in land-atmosphere interactions. These biases need to be corrected or considered while using models for future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integration of Total-Sky Imager Data with a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model for Intra-Hour Forecasting of Solar Radiation

Short-term solar forecasting models based solely on global horizontal irradiance (GHI) measurements are often unable to discriminate the forecasting of the factors affecting GHI from those that can be precisely computed by atmospheric models. Our previous study introduced a Physics-based Smart Persistence model for Intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) that decomposed the forecasting of GHI into the computation of extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle and the forecasting of cloud albedo and cloud fraction. The extraterrestrial solar radiation and solar zenith angle were accurately computed by the Solar Position Algorithm (SPA) developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). A cloud retrieval technique was used to estimate cloud albedo and cloud fraction from surface-based observations of GHI. With the assumption of persistent cloud structures, the cloud albedo and cloud fraction were predicted for future time steps using a two-stream approximation and a 5-minute exponential weighted moving average, respectively. The model evaluation indicated the estimation and forecast of cloud fraction mostly contributed to the uncertainty of the PSPI though it overcame the persistence and smart persistence models in all forecast time horizons between 5 and 60 minutes. This study aims to enhance the PSPI by ingesting surface-based observations of cloud fraction from a total sky imager (TSI). The estimation and forecast of cloud albedo is correspondingly improved by utilizing the cloud fraction observations and thus leads to more accurate GHI forecast. Various time-series analysis methods are also investigated on the forecasting of cloud fraction and cloud albedo for further improving the GHI forecast. These improvements are valuable for many applications, such as forecasting energy use for buildings, grid operations, and ultimately bringing down the cost of solar energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing impacts of selective logging on water, energy, and carbon budgets and ecosystem dynamics in Amazon forests using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator

Abstract. Tropical forest degradation from logging, fire, and fragmentation not only alters carbon stocks and carbon fluxes, but also impacts physical land surface properties such as albedo and roughness length. Such impacts are poorly quantified to date due to difficulties in accessing and maintaining observational infrastructures, as well as the lack of proper modeling tools for capturing the interactions among biophysical properties, ecosystem demography, canopy structure, and biogeochemical cycling in tropical forests. As a first step to address these limitations, we implemented a selective logging module into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) by mimicking the ecological, biophysical, and biogeochemical processes following a logging event. The model can specify the timing and aerial extent of logging events, splitting the logged forest patch into disturbed and intact patches; determine the survivorship of cohorts in the disturbed patch; and modifying the biomass and necromass (total mass of coarse woody debris and litter) pools following logging. We parameterized the logging module to reproduce a selective logging experiment at the Tapajós National Forest in Brazil and benchmarked model outputs against available field measurements. Our results suggest that the model permits the coexistence of early and late successional functional types and realistically characterizes the seasonality of water and carbon fluxes and stocks, the forest structure and composition, and the ecosystem succession following disturbance. However, the current version of FATES overestimates water stress in the dry season and therefore fails to capture seasonal variation in latent and sensible heat fluxes. Moreover, we observed a bias towards low stem density and leaf area when compared to observations, suggesting that improvements are needed in both carbon allocation and establishment of trees. The effects of logging were assessed by different logging scenarios to represent reduced impact and conventional logging practices, both with high and low logging intensities. The model simulations suggest that in comparison to old-growth forests the logged forests rapidly recover water and energy fluxes in 1 to 3 years. In contrast, the recovery times for carbon stocks, forest structure, and composition are more than 30 years depending on logging practices and intensity. This study lays the foundation to simulate land use change and forest degradation in FATES, which will be an effective tool to directly represent forest management practices and regeneration in the context of Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

surfspecalb1mlawer

!!!This is an intermediate datastream and as such will not be shipped to archive. PCM DOD reviewers requested it have a DOI despite this. Please contact Ken Kehoe if you have questions about it needing a DOI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

AERO-MAP: a data compilation and modeling approach to understand spatial variability in fine- and coarse-mode aerosol composition

Abstract. Aerosol particles are an important part of the Earth climate system, and their concentrations are spatially and temporally heterogeneous, as well as being variable in size and composition. Particles can interact with incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation, change cloud properties, affect photochemistry, impact surface air quality, change the albedo of snow and ice, and modulate carbon dioxide uptake by the land and ocean. High particulate matter concentrations at the surface represent an important public health hazard. There are substantial data sets describing aerosol particles in the literature or in public health databases, but they have not been compiled for easy use by the climate and air quality modeling community. Here, we present a new compilation of PM2.5 and PM10 surface observations, including measurements of aerosol composition, focusing on the spatial variability across different observational stations. Climate modelers are constantly looking for multiple independent lines of evidence to verify their models, and in situ surface concentration measurements, taken at the level of human settlement, present a valuable source of information about aerosols and their human impacts complementarily to the column averages or integrals often retrieved from satellites. We demonstrate a method for comparing the data sets to outputs from global climate models that are the basis for projections of future climate and large-scale aerosol transport patterns that influence local air quality. Annual trends and seasonal cycles are discussed briefly and are included in the compilation. Overall, most of the planet or even the land fraction does not have sufficient observations of surface concentrations – and, especially, particle composition – to characterize and understand the current distribution of particles. Climate models without ammonium nitrate aerosols omit ∼ 10 % of the globally averaged surface concentration of aerosol particles in both PM2.5 and PM10 size fractions, with up to 50 % of the surface concentrations not being included in some regions. In these regions, climate model aerosol forcing projections are likely to be incorrect as they do not include important trends in short-lived climate forcers.

Mahowald, Natalie M. (ORCID:000000022873997X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Snow ALbedo eVOlution (SALVO) Campaign Spectral Albedo and Related Measurements from April - June, 2024 in Utqiagivk, AK

A field-portable spectroradiometer, referred to herein as an ‘ASD’, was used to make spatially-distributed spectral albedo (350 – 2500 nm) measurements on tundra and sea ice surfaces. The ASD detector is carried in a backpack and controlled via a computer mounted on the front of the operator (see Figure 1). The ASD measures the spectral irradiance from a fiber optic cable that is routed from the backpack to a custom, gooseneck cosine collector mounted on the end of a 1-m long boom (Grenfell and Perovich, 2008). The boom was held at hip height (approximately 1 m) and had an integrated bubble level for levelling. To make an albedo measurement, first the operator collect an incident (down-welling) irradiance, followed by a reflected (up-welling) measurement. The time between incident and reflected measurements was typically between 11 and 26 seconds (interquartile range). For each measurement, 10 spectra are averaged together. Albedo is calculated as the ratio of the reflected to incident measurement, which obviates the need for absolute radiometric calibration. Albedo measurements were taken parallel to the 200-m albedo lines at 5-m increments (41 measurements) ~1 m south of the line. While the ASD operator was making measurements, an assistant kept notes on the scan number associated with each measurement, the surface type (see below), and collected photos of each measurement (see companion oblique photos data archive). Measurements were made within 3 hours of solar noon.

ASD Spectroradiometer↗
DOE OSTI2020

Source attribution of Arctic black carbon and sulfate aerosols and associated Arctic surface warming during 1980–2018

Observations show that the concentrations of Arctic sulfate and black carbon (BC) aerosols have declined since the early 1980s. Previous studies have reported that reducing sulfate aerosols potentially contributed to the recent rapid Arctic warming. In this study, a global aerosol–climate model (Community Atmosphere Model, version 5) equipped with Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging (CAM5-EAST) is applied to quantify the source apportionment of aerosols in the Arctic from 16 source regions and the role of aerosol variations in affecting changes in the Arctic surface temperature from 1980 to 2018. The CAM5-EAST simulated surface concentrations of sulfate and BC in the Arctic had a decrease of 43% and 23%, respectively, in 2014–2018 relative to 1980–1984 mainly due to the reduction of emissions from Europe, Russia and local Arctic sources. Increases in emissions from South and East Asia led to positive trends in Arctic sulfate and BC in the upper troposphere. All aerosol radiative impacts are considered including aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions, as well as black carbon deposition on snow- and ice-covered surfaces. Within the Arctic, sulfate reductions caused a top-of-atmosphere (TOA) warming of 0.11 and 0.25 W m -2 through aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions, respectively. While the changes in Arctic atmospheric BC has little impact on local radiative forcing, the decrease in BC in snow and ice led to a net cooling of 0.05 W m -2 . By applying climate sensitivity factors for different latitudinal bands, global changes in sulfate and BC during 2014–2018 (with respect to 1980–1984) exerted a +0.088 and 0.057 K Arctic surface warming, respectively, through aerosol–radiation interactions. Through aerosol–cloud interactions, the sulfate reduction caused an Arctic warming of +0.193 K between the two time periods. The weakened BC effect on snow–ice albedo led to an Arctic surface cooling of -0.041 K. The changes in atmospheric sulfate and BC outside the Arctic produced a total Arctic warming of +0.25 K, the majority of which is due to the midlatitude changes in radiative forcing. Our results suggest that changes in aerosols over the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere have a larger impact on Arctic temperature than other regions through enhanced poleward heat transport. The combined total effects of sulfate and BC produced an Arctic surface warming of +0.297 K, explaining approximately 20% of the observed Arctic warming since the early 1980s.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermophysical Modeling of 20 Themis Family Asteroids with WISE/NEOWISE Observations

Themis family is one of the largest and oldest asteroid populations in the main belt. Water ice may widely exist on the parent body (24) Themis. In this work, we employ the Advanced Thermophysical Model as well as midinfrared measurements from NASA’s Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer to explore thermal parameters of 20 Themis family members. Here we show that the average thermal inertia and geometric albedo are 39.5 ± 26.0 J m{sup −2} s{sup −1/2} K{sup −1} and 0.067 ± 0.018, respectively. The family members have a relatively moderate roughness fraction on their surfaces. We find that the relatively low albedos of Themis members are consistent with the typical values of B-type and C-type asteroids. As mentioned, the Themis family bears a very low thermal inertia, which indicates a fine and mature regolith on their surfaces. The resemblance of thermal inertia and geometric albedo of Themis members may reveal their close connection in origin and evolution. In addition, we present the compared results of thermal parameters for several prominent families.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Seasonality and Albedo Dependence of Cloud Radiative Forcing in the Upper Colorado River Basin

Mountains create and enhance their own clouds, which both scatter and absorb shortwave radiation from the sun and absorb and re-emit land surface and atmospheric longwave radiation. However, the impacts of clouds on the surface radiation balance in high elevation snowy mountain terrain are poorly explored. In this study, we use data collected by the SAIL field campaign and partner organizations in the upper elevations (2,880 m.a.s.l) of the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) over a 21-month period from September 2021 to June 2023 to estimate Cloud Radiative Forcing (CRF) in the shortwave, longwave, and the net effect. Longwave warming effects dominate during the winter when snow albedos are high (0.8–0.9) and the background atmospheric precipitable water vapor is low (<0.5 cm), yielding a maximum monthly average net CRF of +34.7 W·m -2 , meaning that clouds increase the net radiation relative to clear skies during this time period. The sign of net CRF switches in the warm season as snow recedes, sun-angles increase, and the North American monsoon arrives, yielding a minimum monthly average net CRF of -47.6 W·m -2 with hourly minima of -600 W·m -2 . The sign of net CRF is typically positive, even at solar noon, when the surface is snow covered, except for a brief period over melting, low-albedo snow (0.5–0.6) impacted by dust impurities. Sensitivity tests elucidate the role of the surface albedo on the net CRF. The results suggest that net CRF will increase in magnitude and lead to a more persistent cooling effect on the surface net radiation budget as the snow cover declines.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biophysical Impact of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change on Subgrid Temperature in CMIP6 Models

In this study, we investigate the air temperature response to land-use and land-cover change (LULCC; cropland expansion and deforestation) using subgrid land model output generated by a set of CMIP6 model simulations. Our study is motivated by the fact that ongoing land-use activities are occurring at local scales, typically significantly smaller than the resolvable scale of a grid cell in Earth system models. It aims to explore the potential for a multimodel approach to better characterize LULCC local climatic effects. On an annual scale, the CMIP6 models are in general agreement that croplands are warmer than primary and secondary land (psl; mainly forests, grasslands, and bare ground) in the tropics and cooler in the mid–high latitudes, except for one model. The transition from warming to cooling occurs at approximately 40°N. Although the surface heating potential, which combines albedo and latent heat flux effects, can explain reasonably well the zonal mean latitudinal subgrid temperature variations between crop and psl tiles in the historical simulations, it does not provide a good prediction on subgrid temperature for other land tile configurations (crop vs forest; grass vs forest) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5–8.5) forcing scenarios. A subset of simulations with the CESM2 model reveals that latitudinal subgrid temperature variation is positively related to variation in net surface shortwave radiation and negatively related to variation in the surface energy redistribution factor, with a dominant role from the latter south of 30°N. We suggest that this emergent relationship can be used to benchmark the performance of land surface parameterizations and for prediction of local temperature response to LULCC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experimental comparison of pyranometer, reflectometer, and spectrophotometer methods for the measurement of roofing product albedo

Albedo (solar reflectance) can be measured outdoors with a pyranometer or indoors with a hemispherical reflectometer or a spectrophotometer. The current study evaluates these methods and their applicability to roofing materials by measuring and comparing the ASTM E1918 (pyranometer), non-ASTM E1918A (alternative pyranometer), ASTM C1549 (reflectometer), and E903 (spectrophotometer) albedos of 10 roofing products, including three single-ply membranes, one asphalt shingle, three roofing aggregates, and three high-profile tiles. It uses full-size (4 m × 4 m) assemblies in the E1918 and E1918A trials; corrects the E1918 albedos to remove shadow and background errors; and evaluates C1549 and E903 albedos with two different irradiance spectra, one global horizontal and the other beam normal. E1918A albedos matched E1918 corrected (E1918_cor) albedos to within 0.036. Furthermore, agreement between C1549 air mass 1 global horizontal (C1549_G1) albedo and E1918_cor albedo was within 0.015 for membrane and shingle coupons, and within 0.031 for aggregates, though the uncertainty in the latter agreement was up to 0.043. After minor corrections, C1549_G1 albedos of flat or slightly convex tile chips were 0.032–0.052 higher than the E1918_cor albedos of their corresponding high-profile tile assemblies because high-profile surfaces have concavities. Switching to the beam-normal albedo C1549_1.5E increased the C1549 albedos of the 10 tested products by 0.004–0.054, with the largest increases (C1549_1.5E – C1549_G1) accruing to spectrally selective cool colors. Using C1549_1.5E albedo to characterize a chip of a cool-colored tile compounded the error induced by representing a high-profile surface by a flat or slightly convex specimen.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sea ice evolution along the Northern Sea Route and implications for trans-Arctic shipping from 2021 through 2060

Arctic surface temperatures warmed at twice the global average in the second half of the 20 th century due to Arctic amplification (AA), a phenomenon predominantly caused by regional polar changes, like the melting of perennial sea ice and reduced sea ice extent (leading to more solar radiation being absorbed by the ocean surface as opposed to being reflected back to space by the ice surface). AA is projected to reach a factor of three even if the climate is stabilized by the mid 21 st century by reduced greenhouse gas emissions. In all emissions scenarios, AA is projected to lead to temperature changes at least 2.4 times larger than global mean surface temperature changes occurring between 2070 and 2100. The ice-albedo feedback, which occurs when the polar-marine surface absorbs more radiation as highly reflective sea ice melts, is reversible such that the premise of a runaway process is no longer accepted as a realistic possibility. No matter what actions are taken to reduce CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere from now on, two different methods of predicting an ice-free Arctic suggest that perennial sea ice will mostly disappear in September by the year 2050. If there is no reduction in anthropogenic CO 2 and methane emissions, that scenario could occur sooner than 2030. Defining Arctic navigability as safe and economic passage of Polar Class 7 cargo ships without need of an escorting icebreaker, no single trans Arctic ship route will be navigable year-round in the first half of the 21 st century, including in the strong emission scenarios. However, seasonal trans-Arctic navigability will increase this century. An estimate on the number of days per year that the Northern See Route (NSR) will be navigable in the future is beyond the scope of this report. Along Northern Sea Routes 5 and 6, which run close to the Russian coast and Yamal LNG plant, an ARC 7 ice class LNG tanker, the equivalent of a Polar Class 3 (PC3) vessel, will be at low risk in December through April at some point during the current decade. May will continue to entail some risk (more than April) along relatively short segments of these routes through the end of the next decade (2030-2039). Come June, snow rapidly melts away, and thereafter the underlying sea ice begins becomes thinner and less concentrated, greatly reducing risk. However, neither path is desirable for ARC 7 tankers due to shallow bathymetry in Sannikov Strait, and a more desirable path for these ships passes to the north of the New Siberian Islands (route 20, discussed further below). Conventional LNG tankers (i.e., non-ice-strengthened vessels according to the IMO classification), without icebreaker escorts, will continue to encounter dangerous or impassable conditions along many sections of the NSR through the end of this decade for many months of the year. Through 2039, these conventional tankers will be able to operate safely along NSR 6 from August through October. By 2040-2049, the span of safe operation increases to August through November, and by 2050-2059 it increases to July through November, assuming a northward deviation to avoid the Sannikov Strait.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Asteroid 16 Psyche’s composition through 3D impact crater modeling

Asteroid 16 Psyche is the largest M-type (metallic) Main Belt Asteroid (MBA). Radar albedo data indicate Psyche’s surface is rich in metallic content, but estimates for Psyche’s bulk structure vary widely, with bulk density estimates ranging from 1.4 ± 0.3 g/cm 3 to 4.5 ± 1.4 g/cm 3 and porosity estimates ranging from 30% to 70%. A forthcoming NASA discovery mission will visit Psyche. Narrowing the range of estimated compositions of Psyche prior to mission launch can help to determine the necessary tools for asteroid analysis. Psyche has two large impact structures in its Southern hemisphere, with estimated diameters from 50 km to 70 km and estimated depths up to 6.4 km. In this work, we present results from 2D and 3D hydrocode simulations of the largest of these impact structures. Through quantitative comparison of the simulated crater dimensions with measured values, our models suggest that Psyche is largely composed of porous, metallic material. In addition, to match the crater dimensions, our simulations indicate that the angle of impact was significantly altered from vertical by 45–60 degrees.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling potential air temperature reductions yielded by cool roofs and urban irrigation in the Kansas City Metropolitan Area

In this work, we evaluate two mitigation strategies for urban heat island (UHI) in the Kansas City Metropolitan Area (KCMA). Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we assess the potential benefits of reflective “cool” roofs and urban irrigation on air temperature in typical summer conditions between 2011 and 2015, and during six of the strongest historical heat waves from 2005 to 2016. Under the typical summer conditions, we simulate 2-m air temperature for 10 summer weeks, finding average daytime (07:00–19:00 local time) temperature reductions of 0.08 and 0.28 °C for cool roofs and urban irrigation, respectively. During the six heat-wave episodes, we find daytime temperature reductions of 0.02 and 0.26 °C for the two scenarios, similar to those under typical summer conditions. Our results suggest that urban irrigation can be more efficient than cool roofs in mitigating UHI in metropolitan regions where the majority of the land cover is comprised of areas with low urban (i.e., non-vegetated) fractions. Finally, we find the alteration of surface conditions due to enhanced roof albedos influences precipitation within the WRF simulation, in particular during the heat waves. Further research would be necessary to determine the robustness of this last finding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identification of surface urban heat versus cool islands for arid cities depends on the choice of urban and rural definitions

The urban heat island (UHI) effect in arid cities can be small or even negative, the latter known as the urban cool island (UCI) effect. Differences in defining urban and rural areas can introduce uncertainties in detecting UHI or UCI, especially when the UHI signal is small. Here, we compared the surface UHI intensity (SUHII) estimated by a dozen different methods (with multiple urban and/or rural definitions) across 104 arid cities globally, providing a comprehensive evaluation of the uncertainty in SUHII estimates. Results show that the absolute difference in annual average SUHII (ΔSUHII) among methods exceeded 1°C in about half of the arid cities during both daytime and nighttime. Further, the overall annual mean ΔSUHII for all arid cities was 1.35°C during daytime and 1.03 °C at night. The uncertainty arising from simultaneous variations in urban and rural definitions was generally higher than that resulting from their individual changes. It was observed that, with varying definitions of urban and rural areas, nearly 50% of arid cities experienced a sign reversal in daytime SUHII estimates, while approximately 15% exhibited a sign reversal in nighttime SUHII. Variations in urban-rural differences in surface properties, such as vegetation index and albedo, due to differing urban and rural definitions, contributed strongly to the observed SUHII uncertainties. Overall, our results offer new insights into the ongoing debate on heat and cold islands in arid cities, emphasizing a critical need to standardize SUHII estimation frameworks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving a Multilevel Turbulence Closure Model for a Shallow Lake in Comparison With Other 1-D Models

Lakes differ from lands in water availability, heat capacity, albedo, and roughness, which affect local surface-atmospheric interactions. This study modified a multilevel upper ocean model (UOM) for lake applications and evaluated its performance in Lake Taihu (China) with comprehensive measurements against three popular one-dimensional (1-D) lake models. These models were based on different concepts, including the self-similarity (FLake), the wind-driven eddy diffusion (LISSS), the k-ε turbulence closure (SIMSTRAT), and a simplified turbulence closure (UOM). The surface flux scheme in these models was unified to exclude the discrepancies in representing air-lake exchanges. All models in their default formulations presented obvious cold water temperature biases and largely underestimated the lake surface temperature (LST) diurnal range. For each model, these deficiencies were significantly reduced by incorporating new physics schemes or calibrated tunable parameters based on systematic sensitivity tests. The primary modifications for UOM included (1) a new scheme of decreased surface roughness lengths to better characterize the shallow lake, (2) a solar radiation penetration scheme with increased light extinction coefficient and surface absorption fraction to account for the high water turbidity, and (3) turbulent Prandtl number increased by a factor of 20 to reduce the turbulent vertical mixing. All other models were improved in these three aspects (roughness, extinction, and mixing) within their original formulations. Given these improvements, UOM showed superior performance to other models in capturing LST diurnal cycle and daily to seasonal variations, as well as summer-autumn vertical stratification changes. The new UOM is well suited for application in shallow lakes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗