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NASA NTRS2010

The Response of African Land Surface Phenology to Large Scale Climate Oscillations

Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the African continent. Analysis of changes in phenology can provide quantitative information on the effect of climate variability on growing seasons in agricultural regions. Using a robust statistical methodology, we describe the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). We map the most significant positive and negative correlation for the four climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa between two phenological metrics and the climate indices. Our objective is to provide evidence of whether climate variability captured in the four indices has had a significant impact on the vegetative productivity of Africa during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by large scale variations in climate. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. In Western Africa the cumulative NDVI correlates with PDO in September-November. In Eastern Africa the start of the June-October season strongly correlates with PDO in March-May, while the PDO in December-February correlates with the start of the February-June season. The cumulative NDVI over this last season relates to the MEI of March-May. For Southern Africa, high correlations exist between SOS and NAO of September-November, and cumulative NDVI and MEI of March-May. The research shows that climate indices can be used to anticipate late start and variable vigor in the growing season of sensitive agricultural regions in Africa.

Brown, Molly E.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Volcanic Contribution to Decadal Changes in Tropospheric Temperature

Despite continued growth in atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, global mean surface and tropospheric temperatures have shown slower warming since 1998 than previously. Possible explanations for the slow-down include internal climate variability, external cooling influences and observational errors. Several recent modelling studies have examined the contribution of early twenty-first-century volcanic eruptions to the muted surface warming. Here we present a detailed analysis of the impact of recent volcanic forcing on tropospheric temperature, based on observations as well as climate model simulations. We identify statistically significant correlations between observations of stratospheric aerosol optical depth and satellite-based estimates of both tropospheric temperature and short-wave fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. We show that climate model simulations without the effects of early twenty-first-century volcanic eruptions overestimate the tropospheric warming observed since 1998. In two simulations with more realistic volcanic influences following the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, differences between simulated and observed tropospheric temperature trends over the period 1998 to 2012 are up to 15% smaller, with large uncertainties in the magnitude of the effect. To reduce these uncertainties, better observations of eruption-specific properties of volcanic aerosols are needed, as well as improved representation of these eruption-specific properties in climate model simulations.

Atmospheric temperature↗

NASA NTRS2016

Fast and Slow Precipitation Responses to Individual Climate Forcers: A PDRMIP Multimodel Study

Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.

environment effects↗

NASA NTRS2020

Interannual variations in meltwater input to the Southern Ocean from Antarctic ice shelves

Ocean-driven basal melting of Antarctica’s floating ice shelves accounts for about half of their mass loss in steady state, where gains in ice-shelf mass are balanced by losses. Ice-shelf thickness changes driven by varying basal melt rates modulate mass loss from the grounded ice sheet and its contribution to sea level, and the changing meltwater fluxes influence climate processes in the Southern Ocean. Existing continent-wide melt-rate datasets have no temporal variability, introducing uncertainties in sea level and climate projections. Here, we combine surface height data from satellite radar altimeters with satellite-derived ice velocities and a new model of firn-layer evolution to generate a high-resolution map of time-averaged (2010–2018) basal melt rates and time series (1994–2018) of meltwater fluxes for most ice shelves. Total basal meltwater flux in 1994 (1,090 ± 150 Gt/yr) was similar to the steady-state value (1,100 ± 60 Gt/yr), but increased to 1,570 ± 140 Gt/yr in 2009, followed by a decline to 1,160 ± 150 Gt/yr in 2018. For the four largest ‘cold-water’ ice shelves, we partition meltwater fluxes into deep and shallow sources to reveal distinct signatures of temporal variability, providing insights into climate forcing of basal melting and the impact of this melting on the Southern Ocean.

Susheel Adusumilli↗

NASA NTRS2012

Trends in Surface Temperature at High Latitudes

The earliest signal of a climate change is expected to be found in the polar regions where warming is expected to be amplified on account of ice-albedo feedbacks associated with the high reflectivity of snow and ice. Because of general inaccessibility, there is a general paucity of in situ data and hence the need to use satellite data to observe the large-scale variability and trends in surface temperature in the region. Among the most important sensors for monitoring surface temperature has been the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) which was first launched in 1978 and has provided continuous thermal infrared data since 1981. The top of the atmosphere data are converted to surface temperature data through various schemes that accounts for the unique atmospheric and surface conditions in the polar regions. Among the highest source of error in the data is cloud masking which is made more difficult in the polar region because of similar Signatures of clouds and snow lice covered areas. The availability of many more channels in the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) launched on board Terra satellite in December 1999 and on board Aqua in May 2002 (e.g., 36 visible and infrared channels compared to 5 for AVHRR) made it possible to minimize the error. Further capabilities were introduced with the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) which has the appropriate frequency channels for the retrieval of sea surface temperature (SST). The results of analysis of the data show an amplified warming in the Arctic region, compared with global warming. The spatial distribution of warming is, however, not uniform and during the last 3 decades, positive temperature anomalies have been most pronounced in North America, Greenland and the Arctic basin. Some regions of the Arctic such as Siberia and the Bering Sea surprisingly show moderate cooling but this may be because these regions were anomalously warm in the 1980s when the satellite record started. Also, the SST in the Arctic basin is observed to be anomalously high in 2007 when the perennial ice cover declined dramatically to its lowest extent. In the Antarctic, surface temperature trends are much more moderate with the most positive trends occurring in the Antarctic Peninsula and parts of Western Antarctica while some cooling are observed in the Antarctic Plateau and the Ross Sea. The trends in SST in the region is similar to global averages but precipitation from more evaporation may have a key role in the spatial distribution of surface temperature in the ice covered region

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Understanding Sea Level Changes

Today more than 100 million people worldwide live on coastlines within one meter of mean sea level; any short-term or long-term sea level change relative to vertical ground motion is of great societal and economic concern. As palm-environment and historical data have clearly indicated the existence and prevalence of such changes in the past, new scientific information regarding to the nature and causes and a prediction capability are of utmost importance for the future. The 10-20 cm global sea-level rise recorded over the last century has been broadly attributed to two effects: (1) the steric effect (thermal expansion and salinity-density compensation of sea water) following global climate; (2) mass-budget changes due to a number of competing geophysical and hydrological processes in the Earth-atmosphere-hydrosphere-cryosphere system, including water exchange from polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers to the ocean, atmospheric water vapor and land hydrological variations, and anthropogenic effects such as water impoundment in artificial reservoirs and extraction of groundwater, all superimposed on the vertical motions of solid Earth due to tectonics, rebound of the mantle from past and present deglaciation, and other local ground motions. As remote-sensing tools, a number of space geodetic measurements of sea surface topography (e.g., TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason), ice mass (e.g., ICESat), time-variable gravity (e.g. GRACE), and ground motions (SLR, VLBI, GPS, InSAR, Laser altimetry, etc.) become directly relevant. Understanding sea level changes "anywhere, anytime" in a well-defined terrestrial reference frame in terms of climate change and interactions among ice masses, oceans, and the solid Earth, and being able to predict them, emerge as one of the scientific challenges in the Solid Earth Science Working Group (SESWG, 2003) conclusions.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Sea level response to wind forcing in the tropical Atlantic

The circulation of the warm-water layer of the tropical Atlantic varies seasonally. This predominant signal is imposed by the annual migration of the Intertropical Covergence Zone separating two trade-wind regimes. As the migration varies interannually, so does the ocean circulation. A long-time objective of climate studies is to understand this interannual variability: to define its range, to fully explain the causal relationship between wind and ocean response, and eventually to understand how the resulting changes in sea surface temperature affect the wind field itself. Our initial objective is to observe and model the oceanic response.

Katz, Eli Joel↗

NASA NTRS2020

Irrigation Water Demand Sensitivity to Climate Variability across the Contiguous United States

Climate variability is an important driver of irrigation water use in many regions. Efforts to anticipate climate change impacts on future water availability can benefit from understanding how irrigation water demand has responded to these drivers to date. Here we apply satellite derived data, meteorological reanalysis, an advanced land surface model, and available state level reports to quantify irrigation demand sensitivities to temperature and precipitation across the Contiguous United States, for the period of 2002-2017. As expected, strong negative correlations are found between precipitation and irrigation withdrawals, both simulated and reported. Temperature sensitivities, however, vary by region and season, as do the interactive effects of temperature and precipitation on irrigation. Climate-induced irrigation variability is largest in transitional climate zones. These transitional zones are generally separate from the regions where rates of irrigation withdrawals are greatest, such that climate-induced variability in irrigation demand represents a water resource consideration that is distinct from chronic over pumping.

Wanshu Nie↗

NASA NTRS2013

Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

Motivated by the question of whether recent indications of decadal climate variability and a possible "climate shift" may have affected the global water balance, we examine evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) variability integrated over the global oceans and global land from three points of view-remotely sensed retrievals / objective analyses over the oceans, reanalysis vertically-integrated moisture convergence (MFC) over land, and land surface models forced with observations-based precipitation, radiation and near-surface meteorology. Because monthly variations in area-averaged atmospheric moisture storage are small and the global integral of moisture convergence must approach zero, area-integrated E-P over ocean should essentially equal precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) over land (after adjusting for ocean and land areas). Our analysis reveals considerable uncertainty in the decadal variations of ocean evaporation when integrated to global scales. This is due to differences among datasets in 10m wind speed and near-surface atmospheric specific humidity (2m qa) used in bulk aerodynamic retrievals. Precipitation variations, all relying substantially on passive microwave retrievals over ocean, still have uncertainties in decadal variability, but not to the degree present with ocean evaporation estimates. Reanalysis MFC and P-ET over land from several observationally forced diagnostic and land surface models agree best on interannual variations. However, upward MFC (i.e. P-ET) reanalysis trends are likely related in part to observing system changes affecting atmospheric assimilation models. While some evidence for a low-frequency E-P maximum near 2000 is found, consistent with a recent apparent pause in sea-surface temperature (SST) rise, uncertainties in the datasets used here remain significant. Prospects for further reducing uncertainties are discussed. The results are interpreted in the context of recent climate variability (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning), and efforts to distinguish these modes from longer-term trends.

Robertson, F. R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Consistency of Estimated Global Water Cycle Variations Over the Satellite Era

Robertson, F. R.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Characterizing Nanophase Materials on Mars: Spectroscopic Studies of Allophane and Imogolite

The presence of allophane and other nanophase materials on Mars indicates a time when water was intermittent and short lived. These materials likely represent partially altered or leached basaltic ash and therefore, could represent a geologic marker for where water was present on the Martian surface. Further, they may indicate regions of climate change, where surface water was not present long enough to form clays. Characterization of these materials is important for increasing spectral recognition capacities of our current Martian science array. Ongoing work suggests that variability in the Al:Si ratio of allophane can dictate the amount of both structural and adsorbed water in the crystalline structure.

Jeute, T. J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Balance Variability: Linking Weather to Climate Scales

Radiative and turbulent surface exchanges of heat and moisture across the atmosphere-ocean interface are fundamental components of the Earth s energy and water balance. Characterizing the spatiotemporal variability of these exchanges of heat and moisture is critical to understanding the global water and energy cycle variations, quantifying atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, and improving model predictability. These fluxes are integral components to tropical ocean-atmosphere variability; they can drive ocean mixed layer variations and modify the atmospheric boundary layer properties including moist static stability, thereby influencing larger-scale tropical dynamics. Non-parametric cluster-based classification of atmospheric and ocean surface properties has shown an ability to identify coherent weather regimes, each typically associated with similar properties and processes. Using satellite-based observational radiative and turbulent energy flux products, this study investigates the relationship between these weather states and surface energy processes within the context of tropical climate variability. Investigations of surface energy variations accompanying intraseasonal and interannual tropical variability often use composite-based analyses of the mean quantities of interest. Here, a similar compositing technique is employed, but the focus is on the distribution of the heat and moisture fluxes within their weather regimes. Are the observed changes in surface energy components dominated by changes in the frequency of the weather regimes or through changes in the associated fluxes within those regimes? It is this question that the presented work intends to address. The distribution of the surface heat and moisture fluxes is evaluated for both normal and non-normal states. By examining both phases of the climatic oscillations, the symmetry of energy and water cycle responses are considered.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

NASA NTRS2005

It's a Sooty Problem: Black Carbon and Aerosols from Space

Our knowledge of atmospheric aerosols (smoke, pollution, dust or sea salt particles, small enough to be suspended in the air), their evolution, composition, variability in space and time and interaction with solar radiation, clouds and precipitation is lacking despite decades of research. Just recently we recognized that understanding the global aerosol system is fundamental for progress in climate change and hydrological cycle research. While a single instrument was used to demonstrate 50 yrs ago that the global CO2 levels are rising, posing thread to our climate, we need an may of satellites, surface networks of radiometers, elaborated laboratory and field experiments coupled with chemical transport models to understand the global aerosol system. This complexity of the aerosol problem results from their short lifetime (1 week), variability of the chemical composition and complex chemical and physical processes in the atmosphere. The result is a heterogeneous distribution of aerosol and their properties. The new generation of satellites and surface networks of radiometers provides exciting opportunities to measure the aerosol properties and their interaction with clouds and climate. However farther development in the satellite capability, aerosol chemical models and climate models is needed to fully decipher the aerosol secrets with accuracy required to predict future climates.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Isolating the Surface Type Influence on Arctic Cloud Properties

In response to anthropogenic climate change, substantial declines in sea ice have been observed. An urgent question is whether and how clouds respond to the changing Arctic surface. Due to the important radiative influence of clouds, the response of clouds to sea ice cover change constitutes a potentially important climate feedback within the Arctic. The sign of this feedback is strongly influenced by the seasonality of the cloud response to sea ice loss. Given the importance of this phenomenon, previous research focused on using observations of inter-annual variability to quantify the cloud-sea ice relationship. However, the reliance on inter-annual variability to assess the covariance between clouds and sea ice make it challenging to control for the influence of large-scale meteorology on the clouds. We have devised an approach that applies an in situ, airborne observational strategy to quantify the influence of surface type on Arctic clouds to satellite data. Our event-based method composites cloud property differences for ocean, marginal ice zone, and sea ice surface types for >5000 MIZ crossing events. We find that cloud properties in non-summer months below ~1.5 km are influenced by surface type such that greater cloud fraction and water content are found over ocean relative to sea ice regions. Results are statistically significantly at the 95% confidence level. During summer, the surface type does not influence the cloud properties. The primary cause of the surface type dependent cloud property differences is the thermodynamic profiles differences that occur between the two surface types: namely, ocean footprints are warmer, moister, have more positive surface turbulent fluxes and are less stable than their sea ice counterparts. We find that the differences in thermodynamic profiles by surface type that correspond to the cloud property differences also explains a significant portion of the variability across events. Our analysis provides evidence that the influence of surface type on cloud properties fundamentally occurs due to the inherent surface temperature differences between the surface types. Significant surface type influences on cloud properties are only found in the presence of surface temperature differences between the surface types and only non-summer months meet this criterion. A conceptual model of this process is as follows, fundamental properties of the ocean and sea ice surface types (e.g., surface albedo, heat capacity/thermal inertia, surface roughness, and thermal conductance) lead to systematic differences in the surface temperature by surface type. In response to this surface temperature difference, atmosphere boundary layer processes (including turbulent mixing and radiation) communicate the surface temperature differences to the lower atmosphere driving the greater stability over sea ice than ocean. These differences in the background thermodynamic state profiles between the surface types yield atmospheric conditions that are more conducive to cloud development over ocean than sea ice. The details of these boundary layer processes are sensitive to the surface type but may not be fundamental to the resulting thermodynamic structure and cloud differences. Thus, our results indicate that to accurately model that cloud response to sea ice loss in climate models the surface type properties that yield the systematic differences in ocean and sea ice temperature (e.g., surface albedo, surface turbulent fluxes parameters, and thermal conductance) must be accurately represented.

Arctic radiation budget↗

NASA NTRS2001

Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmospheric Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: Comparison of Climate Model Simulations to Observed Responses

This paper focuses on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. While this natural perturbation to climate is quite distinct from possible anthropogenic changes in climate, adjustments in the tropical water and energy budgets during ENSO may give insight into feedback processes involving water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). In a companion paper we have presented observational analyses, based principally on space-based measurements which document systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes. Here we analyze several contemporary climate models run with observed SSTs over recent decades and compare SST-induced changes in radiation, precipitation, evaporation, and energy transport to observational results. Among these are the NASA / NCAR Finite Volume Model, the NCAR Community Climate Model, the NCEP Global Spectral Model, and the NASA NSIPP Model. Key disagreements between model and observational results noted in the recent literature are shown to be due predominantly to observational shortcomings. A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data reveals errors in the SST surface longwave emission due to biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative heating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 W/sq m per K of SST change. Model results agree reasonably well with this estimate of sensitivity. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. There remain, however, significant quantitative uncertainties in cloud forcing changes in the models as compared to observations. These differences are examined in relationship to model convection and cloud parameterizations Analysis of the possible sampling and measurement errors compared to systematic model errors is also presented.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Interannual Variability of the Tropical Water Cycle: Capabilities in the TRMM Era and Challenges for GPM

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30" NE) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans, produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Robertson et al., [2001 GRL] for example, showed that substantial disagreement exists among contemporary satellite estimates of interannual variations in tropical rainfall that are associated with SST changes. Berg et al., [2002 J. Climate] have documented the distinct differences between precipitation structure over the eastern and western Pacific ITCZ and noted how various satellite precipitation algorithms may respond quite differently to ENSO modulations of these precipitation regimes. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series, yet the PR rainfall interannual variability (and attenuation derived predominantly from reflectivity) differs even in sign. We will explore these apparent inconsistencies and detail their impact on estimates of how ENSO events perturb the tropical rainfall. We will place these results in perspective by considering requirements for precipitation accuracy for global climate variability and change studies involving ENSO, monsoon dynamics and variations, and climate model improvement and validation. The discussion will conclude with an assessment of the implications of these findings for Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) requirements.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Precipitable Water Variability Using SSM/I and GOES VAS Pathfinder Data Sets

Determining moisture variability for all weather scenes is critical to understanding the earth's hydrologic cycle and global climate changes. Remote sensing from geostationary satellites provides the necessary temporal and spatial resolutions necessary for global change studies. Due to antenna size constraints imposed with the use of microwave radiometers, geostationary satellites have carried instruments passively measuring radiation at infrared wavelengths or shorter. The shortfall of using infrared instruments in moisture studies lies in its inability to sense terrestrial radiation through clouds. Microwave emissions, on the other hand, are mostly unaffected by cloudy atmospheres. Land surface emissivity at microwave frequencies exhibit both high temporal and spatial variability thus confining moisture retrievals at microwave frequencies to over marine atmospheres (a near uniform cold background). This study intercompares the total column integrated water content Precipitable Water, (PW) as derived from both the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) pathfinder data sets. PW is a bulk parameter often used to quantify moisture variability and is important to understanding the earth's hydrologic cycle and climate system. This research has been spawned in an effort to combine two different algorithms which together can lead to a more comprehensive quantification of global water vapor. The approach taken here is to intercompare two independent PW retrieval algorithms and to validate the resultant retrievals against an existing data set, namely the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model analysis data.

Lerner, Jeffrey A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Land surface water cycles observed with satellite sensors

Acceleration of the global water cycle may lead to increased global precipitation, faster evaporation and a consequent exacerbation of hydrologic extreme. In the U.S. national assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change, two GCMs (CGCM1 and HadCM2) show a large increase in precipitation in the future over the southwestern U.S. particularly during winter (Felzer and Heard, 1999). Increased precipitation potentially has important impacts on agricultural and water use in the southeast U.S. (Hatch et al., 1999) and in the central Great Plains (Nielsen, 1997). A hurricane model predicts a 40% precipitation increase for severe hurricanes affecting southeastern Florida, which provokes substantially greater flooding that could negate most of the benefits of present water-management practices in this basin (Gutowski et al., 1994). Thus, it is important to observe the hydroclimate on a continuous longterm basis to address the question of increased precipitation in the enhanced water cycle.

droughts↗