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At least 127 records · Page 7

Variation of stratospheric NO2 during the solar eclipse

The numerical modeling of the changes of the concentration of trace gases in the atmosphere during the eclipse shows that the NO2 total content in the vertical column increases approximately by 80 percent. The first observations of the NO2 total content during the eclipse of 1981 have given 60 plus or minus 20 percent. In the observations of 1990 the more precise methods and instruments for stratospheric NO2 measurements were used. The surface ozone, NO, and NO2 concentrations were under control. The results of the observations give the increasing of the stratospheric NO2 during the eclipse by 55 plus or minus 6 percent. The maximum increasing of the NO2 content is observed at the moment of the maximum phase.

Elansky, Nikolay F.↗

SeaWiFS Technical Report Series: SeaWiFS Calibration and Validation Quality Control Procedures - Volume 38

This document provides five brief reports that address several quality control procedures under the auspices of the Calibration and Validation Element (CVE) within the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) Project. Chapter 1 describes analyses of the 32 sensor engineering telemetry streams. Anomalies in any of the values may impact sensor performance in direct or indirect ways. The analyses are primarily examinations of parameter time series combined with statistical methods such as auto- and cross-correlation functions. Chapter 2 describes how the various onboard (solar and lunar) and vicarious (in situ) calibration data will be analyzed to quantify sensor degradation, if present. The analyses also include methods for detecting the influence of charged particles on sensor performance such as might be expected in the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA). Chapter 3 discusses the quality control of the ancillary environmental data that are routinely received from other agencies or projects which are used in the atmospheric correction algorithm (total ozone, surface wind velocity, and surface pressure; surface relative humidity is also obtained, but is not used in the initial operational algorithm). Chapter 4 explains the procedures for screening level-, level-2, and level-3 products. These quality control operations incorporate both automated and interactive procedures which check for file format errors (all levels), navigation offsets (level-1), mask and flag performance (level-2), and product anomalies (all levels). Finally, Chapter 5 discusses the match-up data set development for comparing SeaWiFS level-2 derived products with in situ observations, as well as the subsequent outlier analyses that will be used for evaluating error sources.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗

Estimation of Fire Emissions from Satellite-Based Measurements

Biomass burning is a worldwide phenomenon affecting many vegetated parts of the globe regularly. Fires emit large quantities of aerosol and trace gases into the atmosphere, thus influencing the atmospheric chemistry and climate. Traditional methods of fire emissions estimation achieved only limited success, because they were based on peripheral information such as rainfall patterns, vegetation types and changes, agricultural practices, and surface ozone concentrations. During the last several years, rapid developments in satellite remote sensing has allowed more direct estimation of smoke emissions using remotely-sensed fire data. However, current methods use fire pixel counts or burned areas, thereby depending on the accuracy of independent estimations of the biomass fuel loadings, combustion efficiency, and emission factors. With the enhanced radiometric range of its 4-micron fire channel, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, which flies aboard both of the Earth Observing System EOS) Terra and Aqua Satellites, is able to measure the rate of release of fire radiative energy (FRE) in MJ/s (something that older sensors could not do). MODIS also measures aerosol distribution. Taking advantage of these new resources, we have developed a procedure combining MODIS fire and aerosol products to derive FRE-based smoke emission coefficients (C(e), in kg/MJ) for different regions of the globe. These coefficients are simply used to multiply FRE from MODIS to derive the emitted smoke aerosol mass. Results from this novel methodology are very encouraging. For instance, it was found that the smoke total particulate mass emission coefficient for the Brazilian Cerrado ecosystem (approximately 0.022 kg/MJ) is about twice the value for North America, Western Europe, or Australia, but about 50% lower than the value for southern Africa.

Ichoku, Charles↗

El Nino and Health Risks from Landscape Fire Emissions in Southeast Asia

Emissions from landscape fires affect both climate and air quality. Here, we combine satellite-derived fire estimates and atmospheric modelling to quantify health effects from fire emissions in southeast Asia from 1997 to 2006. This region has large interannual variability in fire activity owing to coupling between El Nino-induced droughts and anthropogenic land-use change. We show that during strong El Nino years, fires contribute up to 200 micrograms per cubic meter and 50 ppb in annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone surface concentrations near fire sources, respectively. This corresponds to a fire contribution of 200 additional days per year that exceed the World Health Organization 50 micrograms per cubic metre 24-hr PM(sub 2.5) interim target and an estimated 10,800 (6,800-14,300)-person (approximately 2 percent) annual increase in regional adult cardiovascular mortality. Our results indicate that reducing regional deforestation and degradation fires would improve public health along with widely established benefits from reducing carbon emissions, preserving biodiversity and maintaining ecosystem services.

fires↗

Potential Impact of a US Climate Policy and Air Quality Regulations on Future Air Quality and Climate Change

We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50% below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micron PM(sub 2:5) is reduced by 2 approximately μg/m(sup -3) on average over the USA, and surface ozone by approximately 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM(sub 2:5) reduction approximately (74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is approximately 0.04 W m(sup -2) over the globe, and approximately 0.8 W m(sup -2) over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US mean total RF is +C02 W m(sup -2) due to positive aerosol direct and indirect forcing, while the global mean total RF is -0.06 W m(sup -2) due to the dominant negative CO2 RF (instantaneous RF). To achieve a regional-scale climate benefit via a climate policy, it is critical (1) to have multinational efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and (2) to simultaneously target emission reduction of light-absorbing species (e.g., BC and O3) on top of long-lived species. The latter is very desirable as the resulting climate benefit occurs faster and provides cobenefits to air quality and public health.

Air quality↗

Trend Detection of Atmospheric Time Series: Incorporating Appropriate Uncertainty Estimates and Handling Extreme Events

This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its goal is to, 1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series typically encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry; 2) describe a range of trend-detection methods; and 3) demonstrate effective means of conveying the results to a general audience. Trend detections in atmospheric chemical composition data are often challenged by a variety of sources of uncertainty, which often behave differently to other environmental phenomena such as temperature, precipitation rate, or stream flow, and may require specific methods depending on the science questions to be addressed. Some sources of uncertainty can be explicitly included in the model specification, such as autocorrelation and seasonality, but some inherent uncertainties are difficult to quantify, such as data heterogeneity and measurement uncertainty due to the combined effect of short- and long-term natural variability, instrumental stability, and aggregation of data from sparse sampling frequency. Failure to account for these uncertainties might result in an inappropriate inference of the trends and their estimation errors. On the other hand, the variation in extreme events might be interesting for different scientific questions, for example, the frequency of extremely high surface ozone events and their relevance to human health. In this study we aim to, 1) review trend detection methods for addressing different levels of data complexity in different chemical species; 2) demonstrate that the incorporation of scientifically interpretable covariates can outperform pure numerical curve fitting techniques in terms of uncertainty reduction and improved predictability; 3) illustrate the study of trends based on extreme quantiles that can provide insight beyond standard mean or median based trend estimates; and 4) present an advanced method of quantifying regional trends based on the inter-site correlations of multi-site data. All demonstrations are based on time series of observed trace gases relevant to atmospheric chemistry, but the methods can be applied to other environmental data sets.

Trace gas↗

Future Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Agricultural Yields, Production, and Market

This study provides estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural yields and the agricultural economy through the end of the 21st century, utilizing multiple climate scenarios. Results from a process-based crop model project future increases in wheat, grassland, and soybean yield due to climate change and atmospheric CO2 change; corn and sorghum show more muted responses. Results using yields from econometric models show less positive results. Both the econometric and process-based models tend to show more positive yields by the end of the century than several other similar studies. Using the process-based model to provide future yield estimates to an integrated agricultural sector model, the welfare gain is roughly $16B/year (2019 USD) for domestic producers and $6.2B/year for international trade, but domestic consumers lose $10.6B/year, resulting in a total welfare gain of $11.7B/year. When yield projections for major crops are drawn instead from econometric models, total welfare losses of more than $28B/year arise. Simulations using the process-based model as input to the agricultural sector model show large future production increases for soybean, wheat, and sorghum and large price reductions for corn and wheat. The most important factors are those about economic growth, flooding, international trade, and the type of yield model used. Somewhat less, but not insignificant factors include adaptation, livestock productivity, and damages from surface ozone, waterlogging, and pests and diseases.

Agricultural sector↗

Atmospheric carbon dioxide and chlorofluoromethanes - Combined effects on stratospheric ozone, temperature, and surface temperature

The effects of combined CO2 and CFCl3 and CF2Cl2 time-dependent scenarios on atmospheric O3 and temperature are described; the steady-state levels of O3 and surface temperature, to which the chlorofluoromethane scenario tends in the presence of twice and four time ambient CO2, are examined; and surface temperature changes, caused by the combined effects, are established. A description of the model and of the experiments is presented. Results indicate that (1) the total ozone time history is significantly different from that due to the chlorofluoromethane alone; (2) a local ozone minimum occurs in the upper stratosphere about 45 years from the present with a subsequent ozone increase, then decline; and (3) steady-state solutions indicate that tropospheric temperature and water vapor increases, associated with increased infrared opacity, cause significant changes in tropospheric ozone levels for 2 x CO2 and 4 x CO2, without the addition of chlorofluoromethanes.

Callis, L. B.↗

Impacts of Brown Carbon from Biomass Burning on Surface UV and Ozone Photochemistry in the Amazon Basin

The spectral dependence of light absorption by atmospheric particulate matter has major implications for air quality and climate forcing, but remains uncertain especially in tropical areas with extensive biomass burning. In the September-October 2007 biomass-burning season in Santa Cruz, Bolivia, we studied light absorbing (chromophoric) organic or brown carbon (BrC) with surface and space-based remote sensing. We found that BrC has negligible absorption at visible wavelengths, but significant absorption and strong spectral dependence at UV wavelengths. Using the ground-based inversion of column effective imaginary refractive index in the range 305368nm, we quantified a strong spectral dependence of absorption by BrC in the UV and diminished ultraviolet B (UV-B) radiation reaching the surface. Reduced UV-B means less erythema, plant damage, and slower photolysis rates. We use a photochemical box model to show that relative to black carbon (BC) alone, the combined optical properties of BrC and BC slow the net rate of production of ozone by up to 18 and lead to reduced concentrations of radicals OH, HO2, and RO2 by up to 17, 15, and 14, respectively. The optical properties of BrC aerosol change in subtle ways the generally adverse effects of smoke from biomass burning.

UV absorption OMI↗

The Southern Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Response to Ozone Depletion: A Multi-Model Comparison

The effect of the Antarctic ozone hole extends downwards from the stratosphere, with clear signatures in surface weather patterns including a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Several recent studies have used coupled climate models to investigate the impact of these changes on Southern Ocean sea surface temperature (SST), notably motivated by the observed cooling from the late 1970s. Here we examine the robustness of these model results through comparison of both previously published and new simulations. We focus on the calculation of ‘climate response functions' (CRFs), transient responses to an instantaneous step-change in ozone concentrations. The CRF for most models consists of a rapid cooling of SST, followed by a slower warming trend. However, inter-model comparison reveals large uncertainties, such that even the sign of the impact of ozone depletion on historical SST, when reconstructed from the CRF, remains unconstrained. Comparison of these CRFs with SST responses to a hypothetical step-change in the SAM, inferred through lagged linear regression, shows broadly similar results. Causes of uncertainty are explored by examining relationships between model climatologies and their CRFs. The inter-model spread in CRFs can be reproduced by varying a single subgrid-scale mixing parameter within a single model. Antarctic sea-ice CRFs are also calculated: these do not generally exhibit the two-time-scale behavior of SST, suggesting a complex relationship between the two. Finally, by constraining model climatology-response relationships with observational values, we conclude that ozone depletion in unlikely to have been the primary driver of the observed SST cooling trend.

Climate response functions (CRF)↗

Heterogeneous reactions of N2O5 with H2O and HCl on ice surfaces - Implications for Antarctic ozone depletion

This paper reports on the measurements of reaction probabilities for heterogeneous reaction of N2O5 with H2O and HCl on ice surfaces at 195 K, using a fast-flow reactor coupled with a quadrupole mass spectrometer. The reaction probability for N2O5 on pure-water ice was found to be 0.028 + or - 0.011, with nitric acid in the solid phase as the sole product. In the presence of HCl in ice, the probability of N2O5 reaction was enhanced (to 0.037); the reaction produced, besides solid-phase nitric acid, ClNO2 and ClONO which were released into the gas phase within a few milliseconds. The latter two compounds can be readily photolyzed in the austral spring to form active chlorine which would remove stratospheric ozone. It is suggested that, since the polar stratospheric clouds are believed to contain HCl-ice mixture on the surface, the reactions of N2O5 on H2O/HCl particles is a major factor in the Antarctic springtime ozone depletion.

Leu, Ming-Taun↗

TOMS as a monitor of the ultraviolet radiation environment: Applications to photobiology

The flux of biologically relevant ultraviolet radiation that reaches the surface of the Earth varies with the ozone amount, surface reflectivity, and cloudcover. The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) provides information relevant to all three items. A recent application of satellite-based ozone measurements has been to develop climatologies of the biologically significant UV-B radiation reaching the Earth's surface. A growing body of research suggests that UV-B radiation tends to suppress the immune system of laboratory mice. At tropical latitudes, it is likely that parasitical diseases develop most readily in people who have experienced immune system suppression from UV-B exposure. The computed distribution of surface radiation combined with information on disease incidence may clarify the role of UV-B as a suppressor of the human immune system. TOMS used in conjunction with radiative transfer calculations can provide information of relevance in photobiology.

Frederick, John E.↗

Disentangling the Drivers of the Summertime Ozone‐Temperature Relationship Over the United States

Summertime surface-level ozone (O3 ) is known to vary with temperature, but the relative roles of different processes responsible for causing the O3 -temperature relationship are not well quantified. In this study we use simulations of NASA's Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical transport model (CTM) to isolate and assess the relative impact of atmospheric transport, chemistry, and emissions on O3 variability, events, and its correlation with temperature. Using observations from CASTNet in the contiguous United States, we show that the GMI CTM reproduces the spatiotemporal variability of O3 and the O3 -temperature relationship during the summer. We primarily focus on the total change in O3 due to a change in temperature (d O3 /d T). In regions with strong positive correlations between temperature and O3 such as the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Great Plains, temperature's association with transport primarily drives d O3 /d T with smaller contributions from temperature-dependent chemistry and anthropogenic emissions. There are regions, however, with near-zero correlation between temperature and O3 , and our findings suggest that transport is still an important driver of O3 variability in these regions, albeit not correlated with temperature. Transport is not directly dependent on temperature but rather is linked through an indirect association, and it is therefore important to understand the exact mechanisms that link transport to O3 and how these mechanisms will change in a warming world.

ozone, temperature, CTM↗

Tropospheric ozone in the western Pacific Rim: Analysis of satellite and surface-based observations along with comprehensive 3-D model simulations

Tropospheric ozone production and transport in mid-latitude eastern Asia is studied. Data analysis of surface-based ozone measurements in Japan and satellite-based tropospheric column measurements of the entire western Pacific Rim are combined with results from three-dimensional model simulations to investigate the diurnal, seasonal and long-term variations of ozone in this region. Surface ozone measurements from Japan show distinct seasonal variation with a spring peak and summer minimum. Satellite studies of the entire tropospheric column of ozone show high concentrations in both the spring and summer seasons. Finally, preliminary model simulation studies show good agreement with observed values.

Young, Sun-Woo↗

An Elevated Reservoir of Air Pollutants over the Mid-Atlantic States During the 2011 DISCOVER-AQ Campaign: Airborne Measurements and Numerical Simulations

During a classic heat wave with record high temperatures and poor air quality from July 18 to 23, 2011, an elevated reservoir of air pollutants was observed over and downwind of Baltimore, MD, with relatively clean conditions near the surface. Aircraft and ozonesonde measurements detected approximately 120 parts per billion by volume ozone at 800 meters altitude, but approximately 80 parts per billion by volume ozone near the surface. High concentrations of other pollutants were also observed around the ozone peak: approximately 300 parts per billion by volume CO at 1200 meters, approximately 2 parts per billion by volume NO2 at 800 meters, approximately 5 parts per billion by volume SO2 at 600 meters, and strong aerosol optical scattering (2 x 10 (sup 4) per meter) at 600 meters. These results suggest that the elevated reservoir is a mixture of automobile exhaust (high concentrations of O3, CO, and NO2) and power plant emissions (high SO2 and aerosols). Back trajectory calculations show a local stagnation event before the formation of this elevated reservoir. Forward trajectories suggest an influence on downwind air quality, supported by surface ozone observations on the next day over the downwind PA, NJ and NY area. Meteorological observations from aircraft and ozonesondes show a dramatic veering of wind direction from south to north within the lowest 5000 meters, implying that the development of the elevated reservoir was caused in part by the Chesapeake Bay breeze. Based on in situ observations, Community Air Quality Multi-scale Model (CMAQ) forecast simulations with 12 kilometers resolution overestimated surface ozone concentrations and failed to predict this elevated reservoir; however, CMAQ research simulations with 4 kilometers and 1.33 kilometers resolution more successfully reproduced this event. These results show that high resolution is essential for resolving coastal effects and predicting air quality for cities near major bodies of water such as Baltimore on the Chesapeake Bay and downwind areas in the Northeast.

ozone↗

On the adequacy of the fixed locations of the surface-based international network for inferring interannual ozone variability

The influence of the geographical distribution and the number of the surface stations in the ozone detecting network on changes in global ozone inferred from the surface measurements is investigated by comparison with information obtained from satellite backscattered UV observations on the Nimbus 4 with nearly complete global coverage for the period 1970-1972. Results show that the geographical distribution of the stations does not properly represent different latitudes. While the number of stations in the north temperate zone appears adequate to represent monthly ozone averages to within 0.5% except during the early phase of the Northern Hemisphere spring maximum, the resultant error in the derived change in north temperature zone ozone between 1970-1972 is 0.5%. In the tropical and south temperate zones the smaller number of stations reduces precision, and the ozone averages for use in deriving seasonal variability and trends are uncertain by about 1%. However, in the south temperature zone, the average from the sample may differ as much as 5% in some months from the averages derived from the full set. It is concluded that the resulting uncertainty in the global averages is comparable in size to typical yearly changes.

Heath, D. F.↗

Influence of Dynamic Ozone Dry Deposition on Ozone Pollution

Identifying the contributions of chemistry and transport to observed ozone pollution using regional‐to‐global models relies on accurate representation of ozone dry deposition. We use a recently developed configuration of the NOAA GFDL chemistry‐climate model – in which the atmosphere and land are coupled through dry deposition—to investigate the influence of ozone dry deposition on ozone pollution over northern midlatitudes. In our model, deposition pathways are tied to dynamic terrestrial processes, such as photosynthesis and water cycling through the canopy and soil. Small increases in winter deposition due to more process‐based representation of snow and deposition to surfaces reduce hemispheric‐scale ozone throughout the lower troposphere by 5–12 ppb, improving agreement with observations relative to a simulation with the standard configuration for ozone dry deposition. Declining snow cover by the end of the 21st‐century tempers the previously identified influence of rising methane on winter ozone. Dynamic dry deposition changes summer surface ozone by −4 to +7 ppb. While previous studies emphasize the importance of uptake by plant stomata, new diagnostic tracking of depositional pathways reveals a widespread impact of nonstomatal deposition on ozone pollution. Daily variability in both stomatal and nonstomatal deposition contribute to daily variability in ozone pollution. Twenty‐first century changes in summer deposition result from a balance among changes in individual pathways, reflecting differing responses to both high carbon dioxide (through plant physiology versus biomass accumulation) and water availability. Our findings highlight a need for constraints on the processes driving ozone dry deposition to test representation in regional‐to‐global models.

dry deposition↗