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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2009

Nitric Oxide and Oxygen Air-Contamination Effects on Extinction Limits of Non-Premixed Hydrocarbon-Air Flames for a HIFiRE Scramjet

Unique nitric oxide (NO) and oxygen air-contamination effects on the extinction Flame Strength (FS) of non-premixed hydrocarbon (HC) vs. air flames are characterized for 7 gaseous HCs, using a new idealized 9.3 mm straight-tube Opposed Jet Burner (OJB) at 1 atm. FS represents a laminar strain-induced extinction limit based on cross-section-average air jet velocity, Uair, that sustains combustion of a counter jet of gaseous fuel just before extinction. Besides ethane, propane, butane, and propylene, the HCs include ethylene, methane, and a 64 mole-% ethylene / 36 % methane mixture, the writer s previously recommended gaseous surrogate fuel for HIFiRE scramjet tests. The HC vs. clean air part of the work is an extension of a May 2008 JANNAF paper that characterized surrogates for the HIFiRE project that should mimic the flameholding of reformed (thermally- or catalytically-cracked) endothermic JP-like fuels. The new FS data for 7 HCs vs. clean air are thus consolidated with the previously validated data, normalized to absolute (local) axial-input strain rates, and co-plotted on a dual kinetically dominated reactivity scale. Excellent agreement with the prior data is obtained for all 7 fuels. Detailed comparisons are also made with recently published (Univ. Va) numerical results for ethylene extinction. A 2009-revised ethylene kinetic model (Univ. Southern Cal) led to predicted limits within approx. 5 % (compared to 45 %, earlier) of this writer s 2008 (and present) ethylene FSs, and also with recent independent data (Univ. Va) obtained on a new OJB system. These +/- 5 % agreements, and a hoped-for "near-identically-performing" reduced kinetics model, would greatly enhance the capability for accurate numerical simulations of surrogate HC flameholding in scramjets. The measured air-contamination effects on normalized FS extinction limits are projected to assess ongoing Arc-Heater-induced "facility test effects" of NO production (e.g., 3 mole-%) and resultant oxygen depletion (from 21 to 19.5 %), for testing the "64/36" surrogate fuel in Langley s Arc-Heated Scramjet Test Facility for HIFiRE engine designs. The FS results show a generally small (< 4 %) "nitric oxide enhancement" effect, relative to clean air, for up to 3 % NO (freestream Mach number up to 7 in Arc Jet testing). However, a progressively large "oxygendeficiency weakening" effect develops. For 3 % NO, a net weakening of 26 % in FS is derived for the "64/36" fuel vs. air. The corresponding net weakening for pure ethylene is 20 %. A number of practical recommendations regarding facility test effects are offered.

Pellett, Gerald L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Space Policy Directive-1 has led to NASA partnerships with commercial entities on procurement which includes the development of the Human Landing System (HLS) [1]. With the goal of delivering human crew to the lunar surface by 2024, system uncertainties become an important obstacle to the maturation of multiple new, driving technologies and mission concepts of the HLS program. As unmitigated uncertainties have previously led to failed development programs, these risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success [2]. Sources of uncertainty include novel engine designs and configurations, increased reliance on cryogenic fluid management(CFM), and refueling technologies—which propagate as high-level performance metrics such as overall propellant mass and engine performance. Also, the occurrence of operational uncertainties—e.g. launch conditions or need to abort during the mission—can cause cascading effects on the rest of the mission that are difficult to definitively quantify, and are outside the scope of control. These concrete examples and other occurrences can be categorized as either epistemic or aleatory uncertainties.Epistemic uncertainty arises due to a lack of knowledge and can be alleviated with design and program maturation. Aleatory uncertainty is due to the inherent randomness of the system and cannot be directly reduced, unlike epistemic uncertainty. Robust design and probabilistic methods can compensate for aleatory effects. A taxonomy of uncertainty is referred to for this work [3]. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties has been demonstrated on a three-element HLS concept [1, 4], which allows tracking of current best estimates of the concept and assessment of concept design robustness against uncertainties. A sample case has been completed for this abstract, and an expansion on the methodology will be included in the final paper. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. This abstract will cover the basics of the approach used, and further details and justifications will be in the final paper.The mission profile associated with this three-element concept (Fig 1) was modeled as a set of mission events that facilitated mass changes, idles, or spacecraft maneuvers. The mission profile scope starts with each element’s NRHO orbit insertion and aggregation and ends at post-sortie rendezvous with Orion. More detail on the mission profile will be in the final paper. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as the physics framework to model the HLS architecture for applying the probabilistic methodology [5, 6]. Specifically, a parametric representation of the lander, ascent, and transfer elements and the mission profile of each element was established, with vehicle and mission parameters available as inputs to allow for a dynamic model. Each vehicle stage was modeled with high-level performance metrics, using Isp and propellant mass fraction (PMF) to remain parametric. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. These parameters were frozen at their nominal values for the purposes of baselining architecture performance and sizing the vehicle appropriately based on reference documentation [1]. Range estimating—a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities—is traditionally used with Mass Equipment Lists (MELs), but has been adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in theDYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty [7, 3]. This method was selected due to its application and insight on a system from a bottom-up perspective, independence from historical rules of thumb, and ability to generate sensitivities based on design decisions and uncertainties. As a sample case for the abstract, the boiloff rates of the vehicle elements and the loiter times during the mission (simulating launch time variations and changing window of opportunities) were used with range estimating to provide preliminary results. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology (depicted in Fig. 3, further details in final paper), the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the sample set of uncertainty parameters; 5,000 cases via Latin Hypercube Sampling were computed on the DYREQT architecture model. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Range estimating was applied to the surrogates instead of the actual models, which saves computational expense due to the bulk of cases needed for the Monte Carlo simulation as part of range estimating. Uncertainty parameters were sampled independently from triangular distributions using the DoE ranges as ‘min’ and ‘max’, and the nominal value as ‘most likely’. Based engineering intuition, some uncertainty parameters are correlated—e.g. if the main propellant has a high boil-off rate, the oxidizer should follow suit as both are related to CFM technology.While a Monte Carlo simulation samples all inputs as independent, the results would show model correlations; thus, it is efficient to sample the inputs as correlated. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo. A table for the DoE ranges and probability distribution parameters is shown in Table 1, and more details on Correlated Monte Carlo Simulations will be discussed in the final paper. The model’s resulting DoE showed that multivariate polynomial equations fit via least squares method captured its behavior accurately for the sample case. For the Correlated Monte Carlo Simulation, a positive correlation between fuel and oxidizer boiloff rates was used as a demonstration. 10,000 cases were computed with the surrogates and the launched masses for each vehicle element was collated. The results can be displayed in a probability density function (PDF), showing the impact of the uncertainty parameters chosen. Integrating the PDFs will yield a cumulative distribution function (CDF) that shows the cumulative probability of a given value on the x-axis. For the sample case, the elements’ launch mass margin was calculated and represented in as CDFs, as a demonstrated representation of figures of merit for the HLS concept. For the lander and ascent elements, the NRHO mass insertion limit is 16t; the transfer element has a limit of 30t [1]. It can be seen with Figure 2 that this probabilistic methodology can provide insight into mass margin with respect to the uncertainties being modeled. Currently, the results show that the lander (descent) vehicle element has the most restrictive design space; it is the only element to show a 10% probability of negative margin. Further analysis on the Monte Carlo results will show sensitivities for driving constraints and parameters for architecture feasibility, which can lead to establishing potential mission rules.The combination of range estimating with a parametric architecture model for HLS demonstrated the capability of this probabilistic methodology in a sample case. As the HLS development progresses, this methodology has the potential for keeping current best estimates of architecture performance for awarded concepts due to the flexibility in DYREQT’s modeling framework and its parametric nature. Concept maturation and increased epistemic knowledge can be injected into the model probabilistic modeling, and thus continue to track probability of mission success.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗
NASA NTRS2021

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

Earth system dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2022

Uncertainty Models for the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method of Uncertainty Quantification; Analysis

There is some level of uncertainty in every finite element model (FEM), which flows to a level of uncertainty in predicted results. The purpose of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is to provide statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. This is distinct from model updating, which attempts to modify models to improve their accuracy. UQ does not improve the accuracy of models, but accepts that the models are inherently inaccurate and attempts to quantify the impact of that inaccuracy on predicted results. Previously, an alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method, was applied to Space Launch System (SLS) Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components to predict system-level statistics for launch vehicle attitude control transfer functions and core stage section loads due to buffet. The HPV method combines a parametric variation of the HCB fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method that randomly varies the HCB mass and stiffness matrices as Wishart random matrix distributions using random matrix theory (RMT). Alternatively, the most common method for modeling uncertainty in the structural dynamics community is a parametric approach, which varies physical parameters in the model. However, there are several disadvantages associated with the parametric method. Determining a reduced set of parameters that have a significant impact on the system response can be time consuming, and the selected parameter probability distributions are rarely reliably known. Therefore, in practice, the parameters are surrogates for the actual errors, and the link to parameter uncertainty is unknown. Another major drawback is that the uncertainty that can be represented is limited to the form of the nominal FEM. It is the experience of the authors that based on numerous aerospace programs, almost all FEM errors are in form rather than parameter values. This hypothesis is supported by the observation of the authors that it is almost never possible to ‘tune’ a FEM to match modal test results by only modifying model parameters. Model-form uncertainty cannot be directly represented by FEM input parameters nor included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using RMT, where a probability distribution is developed for the matrix ensemble of interest. The major advantage of the NPV method is that it covers errors in model form. The HPV method anchors uncertainty at the HCB component level to component modal test results by matching the HCB and test modes based on mode descriptions or other methods, and then applying differing levels of frequency variation. The specific variations depend on the confidence to which a component FEM has been validated through modal testing. The NPV method is layered on the frequency variation to match modal test self-orthogonality and cross-orthogonality (XO) results. Once the component uncertainty models are identified, they are assembled, and the uncertainty is propagated to the system level using a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis approach that generates statistics for system-level predictions This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The second example is an application to a component that is design specific to the SLS. Based on this work and other assessments, the HPV method provides another tool to the toolset used for complex system UQ analysis. From experience gathered to date using the HPV method, additional design specific applications must be investigated to provide further confidence in the validity of the HPV method of UQ analysis.

Uncertainty quantification↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NSCOR for Evaluating Risk Factors and Biomarkers for Adaptation and Resilience to Spaceflight: Emotional Valence and Social Processes in ICC/ICE Environments

Space exploration class missions, such as a mission to Mars, will require optimization of human performance, adaptability, and resilience. This NASA Specialized Center of Research (NSCOR) utilizes the NIMH Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) framework to identify biological and behavioral markers of individual social adaptation and emotional resilience (as well as vulnerability) to spaceflight-relevant stressors such as living in extended isolation. The overarching goal of this NSCOR is to obtain novel information to help identify biomarkers of individuals who are resilient and/or adaptable to the stressors of isolated, confined, and controlled (ICC) and isolated, confined, and extreme (ICE) environments.A total of N=90 healthy adult astronaut surrogates are being studied in three spaceflight-analog environments: (1) n=40 healthy adults in the Isolation and Confinement Analog Research Unit (ICARUS), an ICC at the University of Pennsylvania, during 7-day missions, for a target total of 280 subject days; (2) n=32 healthy adult astronaut surrogates studied in NASA’s Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA), an ICC at Johnson Space Center during 45-day missions, for a target total of 2,112 subject days; and (3) n=18 healthy adults in the Alfred-Wegener-Institute’s Neumayer Station III, an ICE in Antarctica, during 14-month missions, for a target total of 7,560 subject days. Dr. Nindl’s Laboratory at the University of Pittsburgh is analyzing a priori selected protein biomarkers in blood, saliva, and urine. Complementary rodent models of exposure to early life stressors, confinement, and isolation are being evaluated at Dr. Hensch’s Laboratory to further validate the neurobehavioral and biological findings from the human studies.Given the inconsistency and varied definition of resilience/adaptation in the scientific literature, the NSCOR team developed a composite resilience/adaptation measure that reflects the most relevant outcomes to resilience/adaptation across psychosocial and neurobehavioral functions, as well as neurocognitive and spaceflight-relevant operational performance. To achieve this, group consensus was attained from subject matter experts to produce a rank-order of importance for each input variable. The final resilience/adaptation score included 36 variables that were collected across spaceflight analogs. As of 10/1/2021, the NSCOR project acquired data on n=27 subjects at ICARUS, n=16 at HERA, and n=18 at Neumayer. The COVID-19 pandemic delayed data acquisition at ICARUS and HERA.Among subjects studied to date, 99% of neural and neurobehavioral data (e.g., neuroimaging for structure and function, behavioral measures) as well as blood, saliva, and urine for biochemical assays have been acquired. For rodent models, Dr. Hensch’s laboratory has established biochemical and behavioral parameters reflecting confinement stress in social networks of mice for comparison to stress responses in the human spaceflight analog environments.Group social behaviors were measured with a Social Network Analysis (SNA) approach to define objective parameters associated with sociability and its plasticity by sex. This analytic approach may help identify a network of individuals who are more effective teammates or more likely to generate new social relationships. Data acquisition, biomarker assessment, and data quality control will continue through September 2022.

D F Dinges↗
NASA NTRS2023

An Ensemble Neural Network Model for Predicting Rare-Earth Oxide and Silicate Heat Capacities at High Temperature

In this work, a neural network model was developed to predict the constant pressure heat capacity for materials in the rare-earth oxide—silica material space. Several model architectures were trained and tested on heat capacity data generated from first-principles density functional theory calculations. Hyperparameter optimization was performed, and the optimal model was selected for heat capacity predictions. The optimal model architecture was found to have a root-mean-squared error of 5.12 ± 3.37 J/mol-K. The optimal model architecture was then used in a bagging ensemble model trained using the leave-one-group-out method to provide error estimates for model predictions. The out-of-bag score for the ensemble model was 0.997. The predicted heat capacities agree well with the DFT and experimental results and were computed orders of magnitude faster than DFT simulations. Machine learning shows the potential to provide a suitable surrogate model for thermochemical property predictions for candidate environmental barrier coating materials but refining of input material features and model architectures could further improve accuracy for these models.

environmental barrier coatings↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multidisciplinary Design Optimization and Analysis of an Open Rotor Stage: Part 1

Successful design of open rotor propulsors requires effective analysis across multiple disciplines, including aerodynamics, acoustics, and structures. A viable design must not only be efficient but must also produce an acceptable level of noise and meet all static and dynamic structural requirements. For design and optimization, this is especially challenging because running high fidelity analyses is resource-intensive, and optimizing a design may require many thousands of cases to be analyzed. For this reason, the NASA team has applied design methodology that utilizes low-cost aerodynamic methods, machine learning models, and high-fidelity analyses when necessary. This includes standard two-dimensional methods such as throughflow analysis and quasi-3D blade-to-blade CFD, as well as some newly developed methods. Optimization using 3D CFD is necessary to maximize performance, and this is considered as well. All optimizations are carried out subject to structural constraints evaluated using finite element analysis. Doing this accurately requires a robust trunnion design, capable of pitching the blade between cruise and takeoff conditions while maintaining acceptable factor of safety. Hot to cold analysis must also be applied in order to correctly determine the as-manufactured shape. For acoustics, the unsteady pressures on the blade surfaces must be predicted, and this can be done either through full-annulus unsteady CFD or through a nonlinear harmonic method (NLH). NLH can run much faster, allowing some acoustic considerations to be made earlier in the design process. The design process is ongoing, and this presentation will review the current status and planned next steps. This part of the talk will focus on aerodynamic performance and be followed by a talk on structures and acoustics.

Design↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probability Bounds Analysis Applied to Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Nonlinearity

The Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program Orion vehicle finite element model (FEM) was updated based on a modal test performed by Lockheed Martin. Due to nonlinearity observed in the test results, linear low force level (LL) and high force level (HL) FEMs were developed for use during various Space Launch System (SLS) flight regimes depending on expected forcing levels. Uncertainty models were derived for the combined MPCV and MPCV Stage Adaptor LL and HL Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components based on the MPCV structural test article Configuration 4 modal test-analysis correlation results. Subsequently, system-level uncertainty quantification analyses were performed using both models for various SLS flight configurations to determine the impact of the nonlinearity on important system metrics. The system metrics included both transfer functions associated with attitude control and dynamic loads associated with aerodynamic buffeting during ascent. In each case, an independent Monte Carlo (MC) analysis was performed, and no attempt was made to combine the results. The Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method was used to develop the LL and HL MPCV HCB uncertainty models. The HPV method provides both parametric and non-parametric components of uncertainty. The non-parametric uncertainty accounts for the difference in model-form between the linearized analytical model and the corresponding linearized component test results in the form of mode shapes and frequencies at that force level. This linear model-form uncertainty is implemented in the HPV method using random matrix theory. However, the HPV uncertainty models developed for the linear LL and HL MPCV components do not account for the nonlinearity in the MPCV. With respect to the linearized models, this nonlinearity is also an uncertainty in model form, but in this case, it must be treated independently as an epistemic uncertainty. It represents a lack of knowledge, in contrast to an aleatory uncertainty due to the randomness of a variable. In the case of an epistemic variable, the true value is unknown, only the interval within which it lies is known. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced with increased knowledge, while in general, aleatory uncertainty cannot. This work combines the epistemic uncertainty due to the MPCV nonlinearity with the parametric and non-parametric uncertainty within the HPV method using a second order propagation approach. The LL and HL test data is augmented with surrogate test data derived from a nonlinear MPCV representation. The impact of the MPCV nonlinearity on system response statistics is determined using a series of cumulative distribution functions in the form of a horsetail plot, or p-box. This results in an interval of probabilities for a specific response value, or an interval of response values at a specific probability.

Daniel C Kammer↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Surrogate Optimization for Quantum Circuits

Variational quantum Eigensolvers are touted as a near-term algorithm capable of impacting many applications. However, the potential has yet to be realized with few claims of quantum advantage and high resource estimates mainly due to the need for optimization in the presence of noise. Finding algorithms and methods to improve the convergence is essential to accelerate the capabilities of near-term hardware for VQE or more broad applications of hybrid methods in which optimization is required. To this goal we look to use modern approaches recently developed in circuit simulations and stochastic classical optimization that can be combined in a surrogate optimization approach to classical circuits. Using an approximate state vector simulator, we efficiently calculate an approximate Hessian, fed as an input for a detailed quantum circuit simulator. We demonstrate the capabilities of such an approach with and without sampling noise. We also show that this method outperforms Powell in the presence of quantum circuit shot noise by a factor of 2-4

quantum computing↗
NASA NTRS2012

New Modeling Approaches to Study DNA Damage by the Direct and Indirect Effects of Ionizing Radiation

DNA is damaged both by the direct and indirect effects of radiation. In the direct effect, the DNA itself is ionized, whereas the indirect effect involves the radiolysis of the water molecules surrounding the DNA and the subsequent reaction of the DNA with radical products. While this problem has been studied for many years, many unknowns still exist. To study this problem, we have developed the computer code RITRACKS [1], which simulates the radiation track structure for heavy ions and electrons, calculating all energy deposition events and the coordinates of all species produced by the water radiolysis. In this work, we plan to simulate DNA damage by using the crystal structure of a nucleosome and calculations performed by RITRACKS. The energy deposition events are used to calculate the dose deposited in nanovolumes [2] and therefore can be used to simulate the direct effect of the radiation. Using the positions of the radiolytic species with a radiation chemistry code [3] it will be possible to simulate DNA damage by indirect effect. The simulation results can be compared with results from previous calculations such as the frequencies of simple and complex strand breaks [4] and with newer experimental data using surrogate markers of DNA double ]strand breaks such as . ]H2AX foci [5].

Plante, Ianik↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Crowd Sourcing Medical Data Collection Using Medical Students

OBJECTIVE We undertook an upgrade of the Evidence Library database of NASA HRP’s Integrated Medical Model, assessing 120 medical conditions which integrate with a novel probabilistic risk assessment (IMPACT) tool of medical risk and resource utilization for long duration exploration human spaceflight. This data collection process included a selection of these conditions crowd sourced over one year via three 4-week medical student electives at the University of Colorado School of Medicine (IDPT 8059 Space Medicine: Human Spaceflight Factors & Medical Risk Assessment). Students undertook a rapid systematic review of each medical condition, under close preceptors with backgrounds in clinical medicine, library science, epidemiology, biostatistics, and evidence-based medicine. As part of the elective, students also received instruction in core space medicine concepts, evidence based medicine and problem based learning sessions as a flight surgeon supporting a simulated Mars mission. METHODS The list of 120 medical conditions includes both common, terrestrial illness/injury (epistaxis, diverticulitis) as well as spaceflight-specific ones (space adaptation conditions, EVA-related injuries). A rapid systematic review process was developed that would allow students to find the data for determining disease incidence/prevalence, return to definitive care (often a surrogate such as hospitalization rates), loss of crew life, and treatment duration. Each data point required a tailored, specialized search process using different databases and corresponding specialized search filters. Databases were selected on their ability to provide high quality literature in an efficient manner and prioritized by their ability to provide graded evidence via a set rubrics specific to human spaceflight. Students were responsible for performing all literature searches and identifying the highest quality available evidence for each data point. Completed student data sheets underwent initial review by faculty preceptors followed by a secondary editing review by the ExMC Clinical Science Team. RESULTS Over the course of three electives, approximately 105 medical conditions were researched by students using spreadsheets with pre-crafted search strategies. Overall, this process was successful in allowing students to perform the preponderance of work to update incidence, treatment duration, return to definitive care, and loss of crew life data points. Students were successful in running searches, identifying the necessary data points within the literature, and determining the types of terrestrial data that most aligns with the astronaut population for successful completion of their tasks. Limitations included variable student experience with search methodologies [PubMed], differing values of evidence grading [best practice evidence based medicine vs. relevant to spaceflight], and students’ unfamiliarity with spaceflight specific conditions. CONCLUSION Finding the relevant literature for medical conditions in spaceflight within terrestrial databases in a systematic method is time consuming and not intuitive. However, the stepwise process that balanced sensitivity with specificity allowed for students to be highly successful in a short amount of time. Additionally, as the process was refined over the course of three electives, preceptors were better able to anticipate where students were likely to encounter barriers, which allowed the course to be adjusted to account for certain data points needing more time for completion. This replicable process may be an efficient way to accomplish rapid systematic reviews for a large volume of data in a short amount of time.

J Lemery↗
NASA NTRS2004

CoSSIR: A New Instrument for Exploring the Utility of Submillimeter-wave Radiometry for Earth Observation

The Conical Scanning Submillimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer (CoSSIR) has been developed to study the application of submillimeter-wave radiometry for remote sensing of cirrus clouds and humidity sounding. Measurements of the global distribution of ice cloud mass and particle size are important for understanding the Earth s energy budget and for evaluating global climate models. The spatial variability and the wide variety of cloud particle shapes and sizes make ice clouds particularly difficult to measure. Ice clouds are essentially undetectable at microwave frequencies due to the low dielectric of ice and small size of the particles relative to wavelength. However, submillimeter wavelengths demonstrate significant response to the presence of ice clouds thus this frequency regime is applicable to measuring ice clouds. Another potentially viable application for submillimeter-wave radiometry is humidity and temperature sounding. The principle of sounding at submillimeter wavelengths is similar to that at microwavelengths. Submillimeter-wave radiometry has the advantage of achieving finer spatial resolution using a smaller antenna aperture which is an important consideration for spaceborne observatories. Submillimeter-wave radiometry also offers the potential of sounding over land and as a surrogate measurement for precipitation. CoSSIR is a new instrument to explore these applications. The CoSSIR is designed to fly aboard the ER-2 aircraft and its modest size (approximately 100 kg) permits it to be configured for other aircraft. A dual-axes gimbals mechanism provides conical, across-track, and along-track scanning capability. In its present configuration CoSSIR has fifteen channels between 183 GHz and 640 GHz. Three channels are centered about the 183 GHz water vapor absorption line, four channels are centered about the 380 GHz water vapor absorption line, and three dual-polarized channels are centered about the 487 GHz oxygen absorption line. Two channels are located in atmospheric windows at 220 GHz and 640 GHz. All channels are single-linear polarized with the exception of those near 487 GHz. Calibration is achieved by periodically observing two blackbody radiators; one blackbody is heated to approximately 325 K and the other is approximately 250 K during flight. Details of the instrument design as well as measurements from the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment will be presented.

Racette, P. E.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Aircraft Conflict Analysis and Real-Time Conflict Probing Using Probabilistic Trajectory Modeling

Methods for maintaining separation between aircraft in the current airspace system have been built from a foundation of structured routes and evolved procedures. However, as the airspace becomes more congested and the chance of failures or operational error become more problematic, automated conflict alerting systems have been proposed to help provide decision support and to serve as traffic monitoring aids. The problem of conflict detection and resolution has been tackled from a number of different ways, but in this thesis, it is recast as a problem of prediction in the presence of uncertainties. Much of the focus is concentrated on the errors and uncertainties from the working trajectory model used to estimate future aircraft positions. The more accurate the prediction, the more likely an ideal (no false alarms, no missed detections) alerting system can be designed. Additional insights into the problem were brought forth by a review of current operational and developmental approaches found in the literature. An iterative, trial and error approach to threshold design was identified. When examined from a probabilistic perspective, the threshold parameters were found to be a surrogate to probabilistic performance measures. To overcome the limitations in the current iterative design method, a new direct approach is presented where the performance measures are directly computed and used to perform the alerting decisions. The methodology is shown to handle complex encounter situations (3-D, multi-aircraft, multi-intent, with uncertainties) with relative ease. Utilizing a Monte Carlo approach, a method was devised to perform the probabilistic computations in near realtime. Not only does this greatly increase the method's potential as an analytical tool, but it also opens up the possibility for use as a real-time conflict alerting probe. A prototype alerting logic was developed and has been utilized in several NASA Ames Research Center experimental studies.

Yang, Lee C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of CFD Predictions of CobraMRV Control Surface Effectiveness at the NASA Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel

The ability of CFD simulations to serve as a surrogate for wind tunnel testing at high supersonic speeds has been evaluated for a sub-scale model of the Co-Optimization Blunt-body Re-entry Analysis-Mid-lift-to-drag Rigid Vehicle (CobraMRV) human Mars entry vehicle concept. The vehicle was tested at the Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel (UPWT) at the NASA Langley Research Center under flow conditions and surface control configurations relevant to the entry stage of a flight mission. The CFD simulations were performed prior to gaining access to test results in order to assess how blind predictions obtained using best practices compare to experiments. Solutions of empty tunnel simulations were used as inflow boundary condition for the CobraMRV simulations in a truncated portion of the test section. Different solvers and turbulence models were used by separate teams to assess sensitivity to numerical methods, physics, and users. After release of the test results, the pre-test computations were compared to the experimental results, and additional analyses have been conducted to explain observed discrepancies. The amount of time and resources dedicated to each phase of the computational work was logged for comparison to that required for wind tunnel tests, and to inform planning of future CFD data base development projects.

ARMD↗
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation Analysis of NASA SMAP L3 and L4 and SPoRT-LIS Soil Moisture Data in the United States

Soil moisture has a critical role in the development, frequency and persistence of climatic and hydrologic extremes such as drought, heat wave and flooding events. In situ soil moisture data are uneven and sparse in time and space. This highlights the need to utilize other soil moisture sources to fill this spatiotemporal gap. The goal of this study is to validate one satellite-based and two model-based soil moisture datasets with in situ data across the United States. Soil moisture information from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) enhanced level 3 (L3) (SMAP L3) and modeled level 4 (L4) (SMAP L4) data at 9-km resolution and Short-term Prediction Research and Transition-Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) modeled at 3-km resolution were selected for evaluation. SPoRT-LIS is a near real-time, high resolution operational land analysis data. Ground-based data were obtained from the North American Soil Moisture Database (NASMD) for 362 stations. Seven statistical indicators including anomaly, Spearman, and Pearson correlation coefficients, the systematic error (Bias), root mean square error (RMSE), unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE), and normalized standard deviation (SDV) were used to evaluate the satellite- and model-derived soil moisture data. In addition, the triple collocation (TC) error model was used to measure the error among SMAP L4, SPoRT-LIS and ground-based data. This study assesses which satellite or modeled dataset is most appropriate for specific times and locations to use as a surrogate for in situ observations. Temporal and spatial analysis demonstrated that, overall, SMAP L4 performed better than SMAP L3 and SPoRT-LIS. Strong agreement was observed between SMAP L4 and in situ observations (ρ = 0.53, Bias = −0.006) in all seasons and most regions with various land covers, especially in winter and in the central regions of the United States. For croplands, SMAP L4 presented the best agreement with in situ data, analyzing all period (ρ = 0.60) and non-winter period (ρ = 0.61) separately.

Tavakol, Ameneh↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Integrated Medical Model - Optimizing In-flight Space Medical Systems to Reduce Crew Health Risk and Mission Impacts

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool used by medical system planners and designers as they prepare for exploration planning activities of the Constellation program (CxP). IMM provides an evidence-based approach to help optimize the allocation of in-flight medical resources for a specified level of risk within spacecraft operational constraints. Eighty medical conditions and associated resources are represented in IMM. Nine conditions are due to Space Adaptation Syndrome. The IMM helps answer fundamental medical mission planning questions such as What medical conditions can be expected? What type and quantity of medical resources are most likely to be used?", and "What is the probability of crew death or evacuation due to medical events?" For a specified mission and crew profile, the IMM effectively characterizes the sequence of events that could potentially occur should a medical condition happen. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew attributes, medical conditions and incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential clinical and crew health end states are established to generate end state probabilities. A Monte Carlo computational method is used to determine the probable outcomes and requires up to 25,000 mission trials to reach convergence. For each mission trial, the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat prevalent medical conditions are tracked and decremented. The uncertainty of patient response to treatment is bounded via a best-case, worst-case, untreated case algorithm. A Crew Health Index (CHI) metric, developed to account for functional impairment due to a medical condition, provides a quantified measure of risk and enables risk comparisons across mission scenarios. The use of historical in-flight medical data, terrestrial surrogate data as appropriate, and space medicine subject matter expertise has enabled the development of a probabilistic, stochastic decision support tool capable of optimizing in-flight medical systems based on crew and mission parameters. This presentation will illustrate how to apply quantitative risk assessment methods to optimize the mass and volume of space-based medical systems for a space flight mission given the level of crew health and mission risk.

Kerstman, Eric↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improved Benchmarking of Cohesive Elements in Abaqus Standard for Predicting Disbond and Delamination in Composite Structures

Traditional approaches for aircraft certification require the assumption of an initial flaw condition, either represented as barely visible impact damage (BVID) or through inclusion of a Teflon insert to serve as surrogate damage. Based on the initial composite damage state, the structure must be shown to demonstrate structural durability and damage tolerance (DaDT) according to the following criteria: a. Damage displays no detrimental growth under cyclic loading b. The structure is able to sustain design limit load (DLL) Currently, the only available manner for validating structural performance is through test. Since damage can occur over a wide variety of areas within a structure, this approach has proven to be increasingly expensive and time consuming for composite airframes and acreage structure within the design-test-certification building block. A further complicating factor is the requirement to accurately capture the most critical damage morphologies as a starting condition. To understand the severity of the damage, it is either required to experimentally determine the most critical areas at tremendous expense or rely on legacy data of similar structural testing, which limits design space expansion. A preferred solution is to use advanced analysis to provide improved understanding of load margins for critical locations based on a wide variety of potential starting damage conditions. The standard industry approach for DaDT certification adheres to the use of the traditional virtual crack closure technique (VCCT) method. VCCT is generally a preferred method because it conforms to the current certification principles of damage from a known flaw, and when used correctly, can be effective at predicting delamination propagation under static and cyclic loading. The VCCT method requires the inclusion of an initial flaw in the finite element (FE) model requiring a-priori knowledge of the flaw location. This in turn requires a plethora of analysis cases to be examined to cover a reasonable span of potential damage states. Additionally, the VCCT approach requires node-to-node connectivity rendering it incompatible with the best practices and approaches for using continuum damage mechanics (CDM) based progressive damage and failure analysis (PDFA) tools within a typical FE solver. Alternatives to VCCT have emerged in the form of cohesive elements which utilize the cohesive zone model (CZM). Unlike VCCT which models linear elastic fracture mechanics, cohesive elements couples continuum and fracture based responses through the use of bilinear traction separation laws. These laws are defined based on a penalty stiffness, a cohesive strength, and a strain energy release rate. The approach can be mesh regularized with native cohesive elements within many FE solvers such as Abaqus and LS-DYNA. In Phase I of the NASA Advanced Composites Consortium (ACC) post-buckled stiffened panel with BVID, Strength and Life [1], the performance of cohesive elements were benchmarked in comparison to VCCT and LEFM solutions and showed good agreement using Abaqus explicit [2]. To realize savings on current and future programs, it is still necessary to close technical gaps related to the use of cohesive elements with Abaqus Standard. Within a program environment, standard finite element analysis is the preferred analytical capability for quasi-static loading as it eliminates uncertainty due to oscillatory behavior commonly seen with explicit analysis. This oscillatory behavior creates difficulties in writing margins of safety based on the analysis. The use of negative tangent stiffness material models complicates convergence which typically requires the use of numerical controls such as viscous damping to overcome. To date, there has not been a comprehensive study on how to establish best practices for cohesive element convergence for predictive capability within the Abaqus implicit solver. In pursuit of these goals, under the NASA ACC program, several numerical benchmark problems were proposed including pure mode I (double cantilevered beam – DCB), pure mode II (end notch flexure – ENF), and symmetric/unsymmetric evolving mixed mode (single leg bend – SLB). This paper focuses on the use of cohesive elements to model the delamination through the use of CZM. Specifically, finite element models for the DCB, ENF, symmetric SLB, and unsymmetric SLB, are developed and various solution controls for convergence are studied to develop a best practice. Once the best practice has been developed, the predictive capability of the objective CZM model is used to analyze the hat pull-off strength of a standard hat stiffened configuration under various loading conditions.

Abaqus↗
NASA NTRS1999

Strategies and Technologies for In Situ Mineralogical Investigations on Mars

Surface landers on Mars (Viking and Pathfinder) have not revealed satisfying answers to the mineralogy and lithology of the planet's surface. In part, this results from their prime directives: Viking focused on exobiology, Pathfinder focused on technology demonstration. The analytical instruments on board the landers made admirable attempts to extract the mineralogy and geology of Mars, as did countless modeling efforts after the missions. Here we suggest a framework for elucidating martian, or any other planetary geology, through an approach that defines (a) type of information required, (b) explorational strategy harmonious with acquisition of these data, (c) interpretation approach to the data, (d) compatible mission architecture, (e) instrumentation for interrogating rocks and soil. (a) Data required: The composition of a planet is ordered at scales ranging from molecules to minerals to rocks, and from geological units to provinces to planetary-scale systems. The largest ordering that in situ compositional instruments can attempt to interrogate is rock type "aggregate" information. This is what the geologist attempts to identify first. From this, mineralogy can be either directly seen or inferred. From mineralogy can be determined elemental abundances and perhaps the state of the compounds as being crystalline or amorphous. Knowledge of rock type and mineralogy is critical for elucidating geologic process. Mars landers acquired extremely valuable elemental data, but attempted to move from elements to aggregates, but this can only be done by making many assumptions and sometimes giant leaps of faith. Data we believe essential are elements, minerals, degree of ordering of compounds, and the aggregate or rock type that these materials compose. (b) Explorational strategy: A lander should function as a surrogate geologist. Of the total landscape, a geologist sees much, but gives detailed attention to an infinitesimally small amount of what is seen. To acquire samples worth detailed scrutiny, as many samples as possible need examining at a cursory or reconnaissance level. A representative, statistically-meaningful sample number cannot be overemphasized. This maxim still applies to geological exploration of our own planet of which we have abundant knowledge. Analysis of many samples mandates low-power consumption per sample. (c) Data interpretation: No single instrument can analyze the full spectrum of the x-axis. An instrument is optimized for detecting certain material characteristics and must therefore affix itself to some point on the x-axis. Any conclusions drawn about data to the left or right of the instrument's position on this axis must necessarily be derived by inference. Hence, it seems logical to include on a mission, instruments that are not closely spaced in their x-axis-position, and if only two analytical methods are used, as shown, they should start at opposite ends of the axis and work towards the center. As examples, we depict a high-resolution camera to evaluate rock type ("aggregate" state) and mineralogy, and an x-ray diffractometer-fluorescence spectrometer (XRD-XRF) to determine elements, minerals, and the degree of order of materials. (d) Mission architecture: No instrument or suite of instruments can be relied upon to always give truly unequivocal analyses. The suite of instruments should therefore permit conclusions of one instrument to be checked against those of another through closed analytical loops. These "loops" can be structured by a combination of orbital imagery, descent imagery, broad-band site viewing/analysis, and data that cover both x and y axes. For example, the detection of a basaltic-looking rock with a microscope should be checked against the elements detected, the appearance of the rock as a lava flow from descent imagery, and so forth. (e) Instrumentation: To satisfy the above criteria, it is necessary to: (i) See the rock or soil with high resolution + magnification, (ii) Examine many samples, (iii) Consume little power per analysis, (iv) Determine elemental species, (v) Determine mineralogy directly (not inferentially) and the degree of ordering of compounds, (vi) Start analyzing from both ends of the x-axis. Every geologist wants to see the hand sample first, and apply a hand lens to its surface. This has not been the starting point for missions to Mars. Thus, our technology satisfies all these criteria . This XRD-XRF-Optical instrument currently being developed, analyses rock or soil surfaces without the need for sample acquisition or preparation; this satisfies the power criterion, and enables many analyses. The device acquires direct mineralogy and determines elemental species. The embedded endoscopic camera satisfies the critical criterion of close inspection of samples; the fiber optic cable can also be used for IR, LTV, or laser sample analysis. Additional information is contained in the original (Figures).

Marshall, J. R.↗