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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2006

Flora: A Proposed Hyperspectral Mission

In early 2004, one of the authors (Stephen Ungar, NASA GSFC) presented a mission concept called "Spectrasat" at the AVIRIS Workshop in Pasadena, CA. This mission concept grew out of the lessons learned from the Earth Observing-One (EO-1) Hyperion Imaging Spectrometer and was structured to more effectively accomplish the types of studies conducted with Hyperion. The Spectrasat concept represented an evolution of the technologies and operation strategies employed on EO-I. The Spectrasat concept had been preceded by two community-based missions proposed by Susan Ustin, UC Davis and Robert Green, NASA JPL. As a result of community participation, starting at this AVIRIS Workshop, the Spectrasat proposal evolved into the Flora concept which now represents the combined visions of Gregory Asner (Carnegie Institute), Stephen Ungar, Robert Green and Robert Knox, NASA GSFC. Flora is a proposed imaging spectrometer mission, designed to address global carbon cycle science issues. This mission centers on measuring ecological disturbance for purposes of ascertaining changes in global carbon stocks and draws heavily on experience gained through AVIRIS airborne flights and Hyperion space born flights. The observing strategy exploits the improved ability of imaging spectrometers, as compared with multi-spectral observing systems, to identify vegetation functional groups, detect ecosystem response to disturbance and assess the related discovery. Flora will be placed in a sun synchronous orbit, with a 45 meter pixel size, a 90 km swath width and a 31 day repeat cycle. It covers the spectral range from 0.4 to 2.5 micrometers with a spectral sampling interval of 10 nm. These specifications meet the needs of the Flora science team under the leadership of Gregory Asner. Robert Green, has introduced a spectrometer design for Flora which is expected to have a SNR of 600: 1 in the VNIR and 450: 1 in the SWIR. The mission team at NASA GSFC is designing an Intelligent Payload Module (IPM) designed to effectively reduce the volume of data required to be transmitted down to the ground. This paper discusses mission science objectives, describes the mission concept and presents the current status of possible funding opportunities leading to realization of the mission.

Ungar, Stephen↗
NASA NTRS1997

Scatterometer Observes Extratropical Transition of Pacific Typhoons

From September 15 to 25, 1996, NASA's scatterometer (NSCAT) monitored the evolution of twin typhoons, Violet and Tom, as they moved north from the western tropical Pacific, acquiring features of mid-latitude storms. The typhoons developed frontal structures, increased asymmetry, and dry air was introduced into their cores. Violet hit Japan, causing death and destruction (Figure 1), and Tom merged with a mid-latitude trough and evolved into a large extratropical storm with gale-force winds (Figure 2). We understand relatively little about the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones because of the complex thermodynamics involved [e.g., Sinclair, 1993], but we do know that the mid-latitude storms resulting from tropical cyclones usually generate strong winds and heavy precipitation. Since the transition usually occurs over the ocean, few measurements have been made. The transition is a fascinating science problem, but it also has important economic consequences. The transition occurs over the busiest trans-ocean shipping lanes, and when the resulting storms hit land, they usually devastate populated areas. NSCAT was successfully launched into a near-polar, sun-synchronous orbit on the Japanese Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS) in August 1996 from Tanegashima Space Center in Japan. NSCAT's six antennas send microwave pulses at a frequency of 14 GHz to the Earth's surface and measure the backscatter. The antennas scan two 600-km bands of the ocean, which are separated by a 330-km data gap. From NSCAT observations, surface wind vectors can be derived at 25-km spatial resolution, covering 77% of the ice-free ocean in one day and 97% of the ocean in two days, under both clear and cloudy conditions.

Liu, W. Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Review of the MLAS Parachute Systems

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) is developing the Max Launch Abort System (MLAS) as a risk-mitigation design should problems arise with the baseline Orion spacecraft launch abort design. The Max in MLAS is dedicated to Max Faget, the renowned NASA spacecraft designer. The MLAS flight test vehicle consists of boost skirt, coast skirt and the MLAS fairing which houses a full scale boilerplate Orion Crew Module (CM). The objective of the flight test is to prove that the CM can be released from the MLAS fairing during pad abort conditions without detrimental recontact between the CM and fairing, achieving performance similar to the Orion launch abort system. The boost and coast skirts provide the necessary thrust and stability to achieve the flight test conditions and are released prior to the test -- much like the Little Joe booster was used in the Apollo Launch Escape System tests. To achieve the test objective, two parachutes are deployed from the fairing to reorient the CM/fairing to a heatshield first orientation. The parachutes then provide the force necessary to reduce the total angle of attack and body angular rates required for safe release of the CM from the fairing. A secondary test objective after CM release from the fairing is to investigate the removal of the CM forward bay cover (FBC) with CM drogue parachutes for the purpose of attempting to synchronously deploying a set of CM main parachutes. Although multiple parachute deployments are used in the MLAS flight test vehicle to complete its objective, there are only two parachute types employed in the flight test. Five of the nine parachutes used for MLAS are 27.6 ft D(sub 0) ribbon parachutes, and the remaining four are standard G-12 cargo parachutes. This paper presents an overview of the 27.6 ft D(sub 0) ribbon parachute system employed on the MLAS flight test vehicle for coast skirt separation, fairing reorientation, and as drogue parachutes for the CM after separation from the fairing. Discussion will include: the process used to select this design, previously proven as a spin/stall recovery parachute; descriptions of all components of the parachute system; the minor modifications necessary to adapt the parachute to the MLAS program; the techniques used to analyze the parachute for the multiple roles it performs; a discussion of the rigging techniques used to interface the parachute system to the vehicle; and a brief description of how the evolution of the program affected parachute usage and analysis. An overview of the Objective system, rationale for the MLAS approach and the future of the program will also be presented. We hope to have flight test results to report at the time of the Conference Presentation.

Taylor, Anthony P.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The case for extraterrestrial causes of extinction

The dramatic increase in our knowledge of large-body impacts that have occurred in Earth's history has led to strong arguments for the plausibility of meteorite impact as a cause of extinction. Proof of causation is often hampered, however, by our inability to demonstrate the synchronism of specific impacts and extinctions. A central problem is range truncation: the last reported occurrences of fossil taxa generally underestimate the true times of extinction. Range truncation, because of gaps in sedimentation, lack of preservation, or lack of discovery, can make sudden extinctions appear gradual and gradual extinctions appear sudden. Also, stepwise extinction may appear as an artefact of range truncation. These effects are demonstrated by experiments performed on data from field collections of Cretaceous ammonities from Zumaya (Spain). The challenge for future research is to develop a new calculus for treating biostratigraphic data so that fossils can provide more accurate assessments of the timing of extinctions.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2023

From primordial clocks to circadian oscillators

Circadian rhythms play an essential part in many biological processes, and only three prokaryotic proteins are required to constitute a true post-translational circadian oscillator1. The evolutionary history of the three Kai proteins indicates that KaiC is the oldest member and a central component of the clock. Subsequent additions of KaiB and KaiA regulate the phosphorylation state of KaiC for time synchronization. The canonical KaiABC system in cyanobacteria is well understood but little is known about more ancient systems that only possess KaiBC. However, there are reports that they might exhibit a basic, hourglass-like timekeeping mechanism. Here we investigate the primordial circadian clock in Rhodobacter sphaeroides , which contains only KaiBC, to elucidate its inner workings despite missing KaiA. Using a combination of X-ray crystallography and cryogenic electron microscopy, we find a new dodecameric fold for KaiC, in which two hexamers are held together by a coiled-coil bundle of 12 helices. This interaction is formed by the carboxy-terminal extension of KaiC and serves as an ancient regulatory moiety that is later superseded by KaiA. A coiled-coil register shift between daytime and night-time conformations is connected to phosphorylation sites through a long-range allosteric network that spans over 140 Å. Our kinetic data identify the difference in the ATP-to-ADP ratio between day and night as the environmental cue that drives the clock. They also unravel mechanistic details that shed light on the evolution of self-sustained oscillators.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analytical Investigation of the Role of Lateral Mixing in the Evolution of Nonprecipitating Cumulus. Part I: Developing Clouds

Evolution of nonprecipitating cumulus clouds (Cu) at the developing stage under the influence of lateral entrainment and mixing is studied analytically using a minimalistic analytical model. We present a model of an ascending cloud volume (a model of developing Cu) whose structure is determined by the processes of droplet diffusion growth/evaporation and entrainment mixing in the horizontal direction. Spatial and time changes of liquid water content, the adiabatic fraction, droplet concentration, and the mean volume droplet radius are calculated. It is shown that the existence of a nondiluted core in a growing cumulus cloud significantly depends on the cloud width and vertical velocity. While at the updraft velocity of 2 m s −1 the core of a 400-m-wide cloud becomes diluted at distances of a few hundred meters above cloud base, the core of a cloud of 1000-m width remains nondiluted at distances up to 1500 m above cloud base. The explanation of this result is simple: the increase in cloud width and the decrease in the updraft velocity increase the time during which the cloud is diluted due to mixing. Since lateral mixing synchronously decreases both the cloud water content and droplet concentration, the variation of the mean volume droplet radius is low inside the cloud. The approximate quantitative condition for cloud formation in updraft is derived. It is shown that a cloud can arise when its vertical velocity exceeds a critical value. To produce clouds, narrow turbulent plumes should ascend at higher velocity as compared to wider plumes. High humidity of the environment air is favorable for formation of clouds from plumes. The comparison of the obtained results with previously published observational data indicates a reasonable agreement. The results can be useful for parameterization purposes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Simulations of Interacting Binary Systems—Pathways to Radio-bright Gamma-Ray Burst Progenitors

Although the association of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) with massive stellar death is on firm footing, the nature of the progenitor system and the key ingredients required for a massive star to produce a GRB remain open questions. Here, we investigate the evolution of a 15–25M ⊙ massive star with a 10–15M ⊙ black hole (BH) using Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics. We quantify companion-influenced angular-momentum evolution over a stellar lifetime for orbital periods where tides are significant, varying stellar and BH masses, initial stellar spin, and accretion and dynamo prescriptions while tracking mass loss and angular momentum. The final spin is set by tidal torques versus stellar winds. For binaries that initially avoid Roche-lobe overflow, tides can spin up the star, but a late-stage expansion can drive tidal stripping; associated mass and angular-momentum loss can suppress spin-up. We find that massive-star BH binaries at comparable mass ratios may be potential GRB progenitors for short orbital periods (∼20–5 × 10 2 days) and long orbital periods (∼2 × 10 3 –4 × 10 3 days), where our suite of lifetime simulations reveals a favored parameter space with negligible mass loss and enough spin angular momentum to power a GRB jet. For initially nonrotating stars, this provides a lower limit on the final spin above a threshold estimate consistent with forming a postcollapse BH mass of 5–10M ⊙ with a spin parameter ≥ 0.5. For initially rapidly rotating stars, tidal interactions may sustain high spin when mass loss is negligible because the binary is not tidally synchronized.

Hernandez, Angel [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (↗
NASA NTRS2017

Prominence Eruption Initiated by Helical Kink Instability of an Embedded Flux Rope

We study the triggering mechanism of a limb-prominence eruption and the associated coronal mass ejection (CME) near AR 12342 using Solar Dynamics Observatory and Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph/Solar Heliospheric Observatory observations. The prominence is seen with an embedded flux thread (FT) at one end and bifurcates from the middle to a different footpoint location. The morphological evolution of the FT is similar to that of an unstable flux rope (FR), which we regard as a prominence-embedded FR. The FR twist exceeds the critical value. In addition, the morphology of the prominence plasma in 304 Å images marks the helical nature of the magnetic skeleton, with a total of 2.96 turns along arc length. The potential field extrapolation model indicates that the critical height of the background magnetic field gradient falls within the inner corona (105 Mm), which is consistent with the extent of coronal plasma loops. These results suggest that the helical kink instability in the embedded FR caused the slow rise of the prominence to the height of the torus instability domain. Moreover, the differential emission measure analysis unveils heating of the prominence plasma to coronal temperatures during an eruption, suggesting reconnection-related heating underneath the upward rising embedded FR. The prominence starts with a slow rise motion of 10 km s(exp. -1), which is followed by fast and slow acceleration phases that have an average acceleration of 28.9 m s(exp. -2) and 2.4 m s(exp. -2) in C2 and C3 field of view, respectively. As predicted by previous numerical simulations, the observed synchronous kinematic profiles of the CME leading edge and the core support the involved FR instability in the prominence initiation.

Vemareddy, P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Covariation of Slab Tracers, Volatiles, and Oxidation During Subduction Initiation

Abstract Subduction‐related lavas have higher Fe 3+ /∑Fe than midocean ridge basalts (MORB). Hypotheses for this offset include imprint from subducting slabs and differentiation in thickened crust. These ideas are readily tested through examination of the time‐dependent evolution of slab‐derived signatures, thickening crust of the overriding plate, and evolving redox during subduction initiation. Here, we present Fe 3+ /ΣFe and volatile element abundances of volcanic glasses recovered from International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 352 to the Izu‐Bonin‐Mariana (IBM) forearc. The samples include forearc basalts (FAB) that are stratigraphically overlain by low‐ and high‐silica boninite lavas. The FAB glasses have 0.18–0.85 wt% H 2 O, 75–233 ppm CO 2 , S contents controlled by saturation with a sulfide phase (602–1,386 ppm), Ba/La from 3.9‐10, and Fe 3+ /ΣFe ratios from 0.136 to 0.177. These compositions are similar to MORB and suggest that decompression melting of dry and reduced mantle dominates the earliest stages of subduction initiation. Low‐ and high‐silica boninite glasses have 1.51–3.19 wt% H 2 O, CO 2 below detection, S contents below those required for sulfide saturation (5–235 ppm), Ba/La from 11 to 29, and Fe 3+ /∑Fe from 0.181 to 0.225. The compositions are broadly similar to modern arc lavas in the IBM arc. These data demonstrate that the establishment of fluid‐fluxed melting of the mantle, which occurs in just 0.6–1.2 my after subduction initiation, is synchronous with the production of oxidized, mantle‐derived magmas. The coherence of high Fe 3+ /∑Fe and Ba/La ratios with high H 2 O contents in Expedition 352 glasses and the modern IBM arc rocks strongly links the production of oxidized arc magmas to signatures of slab dehydration.

Brounce, Maryjo↗
NASA NTRS2003

The Effects of Spaceflight on the Rat Circadian Timing System

Two fundamental environmental influences that have shaped the evolution of life on Earth are gravity and the cyclic changes occurring over the 24-hour day. Light levels, temperature, and humidity fluctuate over the course of a day, and organisms have adapted to cope with these variations. The primary adaptation has been the evolution of a biological timing system. Previous studies have suggested that this system, named the circadian (circa - about; dies - a day) timing system (CTS), may be sensitive to changes in gravity. The NASA Neurolab spaceflight provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the effects of microgravity on the mammalian CTS. Our experiment tested the hypotheses that microgravity would affect the period, phasing, and light sensitivity of the CTS. Twenty-four Fisher 344 rats were exposed to 16 days of microgravity on the Neurolab STS-90 mission, and 24 Fisher 344 rats were also studied on Earth as one-G controls. Rats were equipped with biotelemetry transmitters to record body temperature (T(sub b)) and heart rate (HR) continuously while the rats moved freely. In each group, 18 rats were exposed to a 24-hour light-dark (LD 12:12) cycle, and six rats were exposed to constant dim red-light (LL). The ability of light to induce a neuronal activity marker (c-fos) in the circadian pacemaker of the brain, the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN), was examined in rats studied on flight days two (FD2) and 14 (FD14), and postflight days two (R+1) and 14 (R+13). The flight rats in LD remained synchronized with the LD cycle. However, their T(sub b), rhythm was markedly phase-delayed relative to the LD cycle. The LD flight rats also had a decreased T(sub b) and a change in the waveform of the T(sub b) rhythm compared to controls. Rats in LL exhibited free-running rhythms of T(sub b), and HR; however, the periods were longer in microgravity. Circadian period returned to preflight values after landing. The internal phase angle between rhythms was different in flight than in one-G. Compared with control rats, the flight rats exhibited no change in HR. Finally, the LD FD2 flight rats demonstrated a reduced sensitivity to light as shown by significantly reduced c-fos expression in the SCN in comparison with controls. These findings constitute the first demonstration that microgravity affects the fundamental properties of the mammalian circadian timing system, specifically by influencing the clock's period, and its ability to maintain temporal organization and phase angle of synchronization to an external LD cycle.

Fuller, Charles A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Cratering Rates in the Outer Solar System

We have constructed a self-consistent study of cratering rates in the outer solar system. Two papers were written, one on cratering asymmetries on synchronously rotating satellites and the other on the cratering rates themselves. The first addresses the well-founded expectation that the leading hemisphere of a synchronously rotating satellite should be more heavily cratered than the trailing hemisphere, and how our solar system has avoided showing much sign of this. We conclude that Ganymede has in the past rotated nonsynchronously, which may imply that it once harboured a thicker inner ocean than it does now. The other study began as an attempt to determine the age of the surface of Europa at a time when Europa was regarded as a major Exobiological target. In keeping with changing times the study expanded to the point that it now recommends cratering rates for worlds as diverse as Charon and Pluto, and includes the contributions of several invaluable co-authors, none of whom would agree with all of my conclusions. The nexus of the work is the size-frequency distribution of comets striking Jupiter (Figure). This was determined using the historically observed record of comets striking or nearly striking Jupiter; the size-frequency distributions of craters on lightly cratered surfaces of Europa, Ganymede, and Triton; and the size-frequncy distribution of Kuiper Belt objects. Extreme reductionists will be happy to know that the surface of Europa probably has an age of around 50 million years. Perhaps more intriguing is that Neptune's moon Triton, by origin a giant comet and by capture and orbital evolution a once fully melted giant comet, has a surface that is probably no older than Europa's.

Zahnle, Kevin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Existing Methods for Grid Strength Assessment and Role of Hydropower in Future Grids

The power system is undergoing rapid evolution with increasing penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs), large loads, microgrids, and power electronic devices. Ensuring reliable and stable operation of the modern power grid is a multi-faceted challenge that requires detailed understanding of this complex system. Dynamic stability is a major concern in maintaining the security of power grids as the generation mixes and large loads transitions to include high shares of power electronic devices. The operation of IBRs in regions with low system strength and higher grid impedances has been found to be the main reason behind many of the power system instabilities that manifest themselves in various types of oscillations and interactions that, if not properly addressed and damped, can jeopardize the reliable operation of the power system. Weak grid conditions compound such stability problems, particularly when many IBRs operate in proximity to and connect to weak power grids. Therefore, it is important to assess grid strength for planning, integration and operation of IBRs for a given power system. In this report, we aim to understand and classify existing methodologies for grid strength assessment, along with their limitations and future needs. Further, we aim to utilize the huge untapped potential in utilizing hydro energy resources in addressing some of the pertinent challenges of grid strength and reliable operation of modern power systems. Hydropower, historically valued for its flexibility and dispatchability, now faces new constraints due to reduced share of synchronous machines in the generation mix and seasonal variability of available water resources. Yet, these same plants present untapped potential beyond energy generation - notably, as providers of critical grid services. This report explores how hydropower plants, particularly through operation as synchronous condensers, can play a pivotal role in strengthening the grid amid evolving system dynamics.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2003

Development of Novel Methods for the Reduction of Noise and Weight in Helicopter Transmissions

Over the 70-year evolution of the helicopter, man's understanding of vibration control has greatly increased. However, in spite of the increased performance, the extent of helicopter vibration problems has not significantly diminished. Crew vibration and noise remains important factors in the design of all current helicopters. With more complex and critical demands being placed on aircrews, it is essential that vibration and noise not impair their performance. A major source of helicopter cabin noise (which has been measured at a sound pressure level of over 100 dB) is the gearbox. Reduction of this noise has been a goal of NASA and the U.S. Army. Gear mesh noise is typically in the frequency range of 1000 to 3000 Hz, a range important for speech. A requirement for U.S. Army/NASA Advanced Rotorcraft Transmission project has been a 10-dB reduction compared to current designs. A combined analytical/experimental effort has been underway, since the end of the 80's, to study effects of design parameters on noise production. The noise generated by the gear mesh can be transmitted to the surrounding media through the bearings that support the gear shaft. Therefore, the use of fluid film bearings instead of rolling element bearings could reduce the transmission noise by 10 dB. In addition, the fluid film bearings that support the gear shaft can change the dynamics of the gear assembly by providing damping to the system and by being softer than rolling element bearings. Wave bearings can attenuate, and filter, the noise generated by a machine component due to the dynamic stiffness and damping coefficients. The attenuation ratio could be as large as 35-40 dB. The noise components at higher frequencies than a synchronous frequency can be almost eliminated.

Dimofte, Florin↗
NASA NTRS2020

Microstructural and Isotopic Constraints on WL Rim Formation

Coordinated microanalyses of Wark-Lovering (WL) rims are needed to best understand their origin and to decipher their subsequent evolution both in the nebular and parent body settings. Here we present the mineralogy, petrology, microstructures, O isotopic compositions, and Al-Mg systematics of a WL rim on a Type B CAI, ‘‘Big Guy”, from the reduced CV3 chondrite Vigarano [1]. Our SEM and TEM study reveals seven distinct mineral layers in the WL rim that include: (1) gehlenite with rare grossite, (2) hibonite, (3) spinel with minor hibonite and perovskite, (4) zoned melilite (Åk(sub ~0-10)), (5) anorthite, (6) zoned diopside grading outwards from Al,Ti-rich to Al,Tipoor, and (7) forsterite intergrown with diopside. We infer a two-stage history in which WL rim formation was initiated by flash melting and extensive evaporation of the original inclusion edge, followed by subsequent condensation under highly dynamic conditions. The outermost edge of the CAI mantle is mineralogically and texturally distinct compared to the underlying mantle that is composed of coarse, zoned melilite (Åk(sub ~10-60)) grains. The mantle edge contains finegrained gehlenite with hibonite and rare grossite that likely formed by rapid crystallization from a Ca,Al-rich melt produced during a flash vaporization event [2]. These gehlenite and hibonite layers are surrounded by successive layers of spinel, melilite, diopside, and forsterite, indicating their sequential gas-solid reactions onto hibonite. Anorthite occurs as a discontinuous layer that corrodes adjacent melilite and Al-diopside, and appears to have replaced them [3,4], probably even later than the forsterite layer formation. All the WL rim minerals analyzed using the JSC NanoSIMS 50L are 16O-rich (Δ17O ≈ −23‰), indicating their formation in an 16O-rich gas reservoir. Our data are in contrast with many CV CAIs that show heterogeneous Δ 17O values across their WL rims [5]. Our Al-Mg data obtained using the UCLA ims-1290 ion microprobe of the CAI interior and the WL rim define a well-correlated isochron with (26Al/27Al)(sub 0) = 4.94 × 10(exp −5), indicating their synchronous formation ≤5 × 10(exp 4) years after the canonical CAI value. In contrast, no 26Mg excesses are observed in the WL rim anorthite, which suggests its later formation or later isotopic resetting in an 16O-rich gas reservoir, after 26Al had decayed.

Han, J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Development of a Nonlinear Probability of Collision Tool for the Earth Observing System

The Earth Observing System (EOS) spacecraft Terra, Aqua, and Aura fly in constellation with several other spacecraft in 705-kilometer mean altitude sun-synchronous orbits. All three spacecraft are operated by the Earth Science Mission Operations (ESMO) Project at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). In 2004, the ESMO project began assessing the probability of collision of the EOS spacecraft with other space objects. In addition to conjunctions with high relative velocities, the collision assessment method for the EOS spacecraft must address conjunctions with low relative velocities during potential collisions between constellation members. Probability of Collision algorithms that are based on assumptions of high relative velocities and linear relative trajectories are not suitable for these situations; therefore an algorithm for handling the nonlinear relative trajectories was developed. This paper describes this algorithm and presents results from its validation for operational use. The probability of collision is typically calculated by integrating a Gaussian probability distribution over the volume swept out by a sphere representing the size of the space objects involved in the conjunction. This sphere is defined as the Hard Body Radius. With the assumption of linear relative trajectories, this volume is a cylinder, which translates into simple limits of integration for the probability calculation. For the case of nonlinear relative trajectories, the volume becomes a complex geometry. However, with an appropriate choice of coordinate systems, the new algorithm breaks down the complex geometry into a series of simple cylinders that have simple limits of integration. This nonlinear algorithm will be discussed in detail in the paper. The nonlinear Probability of Collision algorithm was first verified by showing that, when used in high relative velocity cases, it yields similar answers to existing high relative velocity linear relative trajectory algorithms. The comparison with the existing high velocity/linear theory will also be used to determine at what relative velocity the analysis should use the new nonlinear theory in place of the existing linear theory. The nonlinear algorithm was also compared to a known exact solution for the probability of collision between two objects when the relative motion is strictly circular and the error covariance is spherically symmetric. Figure I shows preliminary results from this comparison by plotting the probabilities calculated from the new algorithm and those from the exact solution versus the Hard Body Radius to Covariance ratio. These results show about 5% error when the Hard Body Radius is equal to one half the spherical covariance magnitude. The algorithm was then combined with a high fidelity orbit state and error covariance propagator into a useful tool for analyzing low relative velocity nonlinear relative trajectories. The high fidelity propagator is capable of using atmospheric drag, central body gravitational, solar radiation, and third body forces to provide accurate prediction of the relative trajectories and covariance evolution. The covariance propagator also includes a process noise model to ensure realistic evolutions of the error covariance. This paper will describe the integration of the nonlinear probability algorithm and the propagators into a useful collision assessment tool. Finally, a hypothetical case study involving a low relative velocity conjunction between members of the Earth Observation System constellation will be presented.

McKinley, David P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flux Comparison of Master-8 and Ordem 3.1 Modelled Space Debris Population

With ESA’s Meteoroid And Space debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER-8) model and NASA’s Orbital Debris Engineering Model(ORDEM) 3.1, the two premier orbital debris engineering models have been officially released. The two models come with significant enhancements and now represent state-of-the-art orbital debris modelling for their respective agencies. Both models provide the community with estimates of the space debris environment from low Earth orbit (LEO) up to at least geostationary altitude. The MASTER population is an event-based simulation of all known events that generate debris and objects that are part of the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog, which provides coverage of objects with diameters down to approximately 10cm in LEO and 1 m in geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO). Different models are used to simulate the artificial objects and their orbit evolution over time. These models are called “sources” since they assign an origin to each individual object and consist of fragments, solid rocket motor (SRM) remainders, sodium-potassium(NaK) droplets, paintflakes, ejecta, and multi-layer insulation (MLI) fragments. The objects from each source are characterized by having individual release mechanisms, as well as orbital distributions, material composition, size, and mass distributions. Dedicated radar and telescope observation data is used to calibrate the model for objects larger than 1 cm in LEO and larger than 10 cm in GEO. For calibrating the small-sized objects, below 1 cm, impact data from returned surfaces are analyzed. Because the >1cm object population is dominated by fragments, the fragmentation event database was updated to include new events, as well as re-evaluate past events. Special attention was drawn to re-evaluating theFengyun-1C anti-satellite test from 2007 and Cosmos-Iridium collision event from 2009 since these events shape the fragment population because of their severity. After 2009, the two largest fragmentations in terms of number of tracked debris are the Briz-M explosion in 2012 and the NOAA-16explosion in 2015. In total, there are 261 confirmed fragmentations in the database up to November 2016.The baseline population for ORDEM 3.1 is based on the U.S. SSN catalog, and observational datasets from radar, in situ, and optical sources provide a foundation from which the model populations are statistically extrapolated to smaller size regions. These regions are not well-covered by the SSN catalog yet may pose the greatest threat to operational spacecraft. The NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model is used to generate fragments greater than 1mm from collisions and explosions, and these fragment populations are scaled using ground-based radar data. Specific major debris-producing events, including the Fengyun-1C, Iridium 33, and Cosmos2251 debris clouds, and unique populations, such as NaK droplets, were re-examined, modelled, and added to the ORDEM environment separately. Optical measurement data is used to model the GEO population down to 10 cm. The debris environment is propagated using NASA’s LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model, and future explosions of intact objects and collisions involving objects greater than 10 cm are assessed statistically. The environment from a few millimetres down to 10 𝜇m is modelled using a special degradation model where small particles are generated from intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, then the populations are scaled to fit in situ cratering data from Space Shuttle returned surfaces. Fragments smaller than 10 cm are differentiated based on material density categories, i.e., high-, medium-, and low-density, to better characterize the potential debris risk posed to upper stages and spacecraft. This paper will discuss the MASTER and ORDEM approaches for modelling populations and compare fluxes for specific orbits, including sun-synchronous, ISS-altitude, geosynchronous transfer, and GEO. In the end, a conclusion is drawn towards the importance of having multiple fundamentally different, yet validated, models to estimate the space debris population.

Andre Horstmann↗