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At least 127 records · Page 7

Comparison of vertical velocities analyzed by a numerical model and measured by a VHF wind profiler

The use of wind profilers for measuring vertical velocities in the troposphere and lower stratosphere is potentially of great interest for verification of forecasts, diagnosis of mesoscale circulations, and studies of wave motions. The studies of profiler vertical velocities to date have shown that the observed patterns of ascent and subsidence are reasonable when compared to the synoptic conditions. However, difficulties arise when a direct verification of the profiler vertical winds is sought. Since no other technique can measure the vertical velocities over the same height range and with the same claimed accuracy as the profilers, direct comparisons are impossible. The only alternative is to compare the measurements to analyzed vertical velocity fields. Here, researchers compare vertical measurements made with the SOUSY VHF radar over a period of 11 days at the beginning of November 1981 to the analyzed vertical velocities produced by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model for grid points near the radar site.

Larsen, M. F.↗

Sea, ice and surface water circulation, Alaskan continental shelf

The author has identified the following significant results. ERTS-1 imagery has been extremely useful in understanding the tidal water movements in a large estuary such as Cook Inlet. As more imagery obtained during various tidal stages become available it appears that complex and fast changing micro-circulation patterns develop in various regions of Cook Inlet during each advancing and receding tide. More ERTS-1 synoptic imagery is needed to fully understand the effect of the approach of tidal front on the water movements in the various regions through the estuary. The conventional onboard ship data gathered during various cruises although revealed the overall circulation pattern in Cook Inlet but failed to show micro-subgyres which develop in various regions during each tide which are discernible on ther ERTS-1 imagery. Suspended load distribution in the Bering Sea during summer varies significantly. In areas of phytoplankton bloom and at the river mouths the suspended load is higher than the 1 mg/1 which is found over most areas. The influence of major rivers on temperature, salinity, and suspended load in surface water as well as at shallow depth is apparent. On the Bering shelf a strong pycnocline generally at depth 10-20 m is formed by surface fresh water flow which retains sediment in suspension over extended periods.

Sharma, G. D.↗

Mesoscale cloud phenomena observed by LANDSAT

Examples of certain mesoscale cloud features - jet cirrus, eddies/vortices, cloud banding, and wave clouds - were collected from LANDSAT imagery and placed into Mason's four groups of causes of cloud formation based on the mechanism of vertical motion which produces condensation. These groups are as follows: (1) layer clouds formed by widespread regular ascent; (2) layer clouds caused by irregular stirring motions; (3) convective clouds; and (4) clouds formed by orographic disturbances. These mechanisms explain general cloud formation. Once formed, other forces may play a role in the deformation of a cloud or cloud mass into unusual and unique meso- and microscale patterns. Each example presented is followed by a brief discussion describing the synoptic situation, and some inference into the formation and occurrence of the more salient features. No major attempt was made to discuss in detail the meteorological and topographic interplay producing these mesoscale features.

Ormsby, J. P.↗

Models of auroral-zone conductances

The magnetosphere-ionosphere system is strongly coupled, with magnetospheric Birkeland currents feeding ionospheric Pedersen and Hall currents. Central to any computer simulation of this system is a detailed, valid conductivity model. An accurate conductivity model is also vital in order to infer Birkeland currents and electric field patterns from inversions of magnetometer chain data. Several recent attempts at constructing conductivity models are presented and their strengths and weaknesses discussed. Incoherent scatter radar measurements can determine height profiles of electron content, from which Pedersen and Hall conductances may be calculated. These yield excellent spatial and good temporal resolution; however, they are limited in field of view. A global pattern requires either 24 hours of data or a chain of stations. Synoptic empirical models (quantized by indices such as Kp or AE) typically are limited by their large bin size (1 deg invariant latitude x 1 hour MLT), and cannot reproduce arcs. Estimating conductivity globally from Dynamics Explorer auroral images is promising, and can yield reasonable time scales (of about 10 minutes); however, this procedure is still only now being tested.

Reiff, P. H.↗

Composite climatology of Florida summer thunderstorms

An attempt is made to produce a more comprehensive peninsular Florida summer thunderstorm climatology using composites based upon the longest available time series of best-resolution manually digitized radar (MDR) return. The MDR composites are compared to a more limited set of satellite composites, and temporal variation in the radar composites is related to synoptic-scale variability. The results objectively demonstrate the dominance of recurrent convective patterns over south Florida, even at scales as small as local coastline variation.

Michaels, Patrick J.↗

Modeling of the coupled magnetospheric and neutral wind dynamos

The solar wind interaction with the earth's magnetosphere generates electric fields and currents that flow from the magnetosphere to the ionosphere at high latitudes. Consequently, the neutral atmosphere is subject to the dissipation and conversion of this electrical energy to thermal and mechanical energy through Joule heating and Lorentz forcing. As a result of the mechanical energy stored within the neutral wind (caused in part by Lorentz--and pressure gradient--forces set up by the magnetospheric flux of electrical energy), electric currents and fields can be generated in the ionosphere through the neutral wind dynamo mechanism. At high latitudes this source of electrical energy has been largely ignored in past studies, owing to the assumed dominance of the solar wind/magnetospheric dynamo as an electrical energy source to the ionosphere. However, other researchers have demonstrated that the available electrical energy provided by the neutral wind is significant at high latitudes, particularly in the midnight sector of the polar cap and in the region of the magnetospheric convection reversal. As a result, the conclusions of a number of broad ranging high-latitude investigations may be modified if the neutral-wind contribution to high-latitude electrodynamics is properly accounted for. These include the following: studies assessing solar wind-magnetospheric coupling by comparing the cross polar cap potential with solar wind parameters; research based on the alignment of particle precipitation with convection or field aligned current boundaries; and synoptic investigations attributing seasonal variations in the observed electric field and current patterns to external sources. These research topics have been initiated by satellite and ground-based observations and have been attributed to magnetospheric causes. However, the contribution of the neutral wind to the high-latitude electric field and current systems and their seasonal and local time dependence has yet to be quantitatively evaluated. In this program, we are evaluating the coupled magnetospheric and neutral wind dynamos at high latitudes under various conditions. In addition to examining the impact of seasonal variations, we are investigating the consequences of the separate dynamos having pure current-source or voltage-source behaviors.

Thayer, Jeff P.↗

The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ): A review

The circulation features associated with the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) and its accompanying cloud band are reviewed and discussed. The paper focuses on the following topics: location, structure, and characteristics of the SPCZ; theories and observations concerning its existence; the significance and scope of the SPCZ in global-scale circulation patterns; quasi-periodic changes in its location and strength; and synoptic-scale features within its regional influence (e.g., cyclones, subtropical jets). It concludes with some challenging problems for the future.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

Relationships between persistent large-scale flow anomalies and variation in synoptic-scale eddy activity and cyclogenesis

Observational analyses to study the relationships between large-scale flow anomalies and variations in synoptic-scale eddy activity and cyclogenesis are presented. The way in which changes in the large-scale flow influence the behavior of synoptic-scale eddies and the way in which changes in eddies may feedback to influence the large-scale flow anomalies are examined. Situations characterized by differing large-scale flows are compared, showing well-defined diferences in synoptic-scale eddy activity. The net forcings of anomalous mean flows by eddies as deduced from tendency methods and E-vector analyses suggest that synoptic-scale eddies may play an important role in maintaining certain anomalous flow patterns such as blocking.

Dole, Randall M.↗

Increased Greenland Melt Triggered by Large-Scale, Year-Round Cyclonic Moisture Intrusions

Surface melting is a major driver of Greenland's mass loss. Yet, the mechanisms that trigger melt are still insufficiently understood because seasonally based studies blend processes initiating melt with positive feedbacks. Here, we focus on the triggers of melt by examining the synoptic atmospheric conditions associated with 313 rapid melt increases, detected in a satellite-derived melt extent product, equally distributed throughout the year over the period 1979-2012. By combining reanalysis and weather station data, we show that melt is initiated by a cyclone-driven, southerly flow of warm, moist air, which gives rise to large-scale precipitation. A decomposition of the synoptic atmospheric variability over Greenland suggests that the identified, melt-triggering weather pattern accounts for approximately 40 percent of the net precipitation, but increases in the frequency, duration and areal extent of the initiated melting have shifted the line between mass gain and mass loss as more melt and rainwater run off or accumulate in the snowpack. Using a regional climate model, we estimate that the initiated melting more than doubled over the investigated period, amounting to approximately 28 percent of the overall surface melt and revealing that, despite the involved mass gain, year-round precipitation events are participating in the ice sheet's decline.

Oltmanns, Marilena↗

Large-scale meteorological control on the spatial pattern of wintertime PM 2.5 pollution over China

The frequent episodes of severe air pollution over China during recent years have posed serious health threats to densely populated eastern China. Although several studies investigated the linkage between enhanced severity and frequency of air pol-lution and the large-scale weather patterns over China, the day-to-day covariability between them, as well as its local and remote mechanisms, has not been systemati-cally documented. The wintertime synoptic covariability between PM 2.5 and large-scale meteorological fields is studied using surface observations of PM 2.5 in 2013/2014–2016/2017 and ERA-Interim meteorological fields through maximum covariance analysis (MCA). The first MCA mode (MCA1) suggests a consistent accumulation of ambient PM 2.5 as a result of weakened winds that block the pollut-ant removal passage in heavily polluted areas of eastern China, as well as moist air from southeast coast favoring haze formation. A northeast–southwest belt that extends into northeastern China and central China on each end is more sensitive to MCA1. The second MCA mode (MCA2) shows a north–south dipole in PM 2.5 linked to the contrast of boundary layer height and surface wind speed between northern and southern regions of China. Spatial patterns of both modes are supported by the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model with realistic emission inventory. The spatial patterns of the two modes are robust on the interannual time scales. Based on that, we investigate the variability of the first two modes of the identified modes on the multidecadal scale by projecting GPM_500 pattern to 1981–2010. Correlation analysis of the projected time series and climate indices over 30 years indicates the possible linkage of Arctic oscillation, ENSO indices, Pacific decadal oscillation and east Atlantic/western Russia to regional air pollution patterns over China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Eleven-years inversion of the green corona emission

Study of the correlation between the green coronal emission and the polarity pattern of the interplanetary magnetic field for the years 1947-1970. Polarity data of the interplanetary magnetic field inferred from high latitude geomagnetic observations and synoptic tables of the intensity of the green corona emission line (5303 A) are used in the analysis. The analysis results indicate that the coronal features are organized in a constant pattern with respect to the 4-sector structure through the solar cycle. A sudden inversion of the coronal pattern with respect to the sector structure takes place at the solar minima.

Antonucci, E.↗

Recognition of beach and nearshore depositional features of Chesapeake Bay

Beach and nearshore depositional features are being mapped with the objectives of determining a quick-look analysis of littoral drift and sedimentation patterns in areas of little or no data. Evaluation of beach and nearshore features aid in the selection of small boat harbors, shoreline protective structures, and general coastal zone development. Through ERTS-1 aircraft support imagery, beach depositional features mapped are cuspate forelands, welded beach ridges, and recurved spits. The nearshore depositional features exhibit a bar and trough topography with three distinct types of sedimentary structures; longshore, transverse, and reticulated bars. Synoptic coverage of beach and nearshore depositional features by ERTS-1 data help in determining the general sedimentation patterns, growth of the beach features and stability of the bar and trough topography.

Kerhin, R. T.↗

Satellite-derived attributes of cloud vortex systems and their application to climate studies

Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) visible and infrared mosaics are analyzed in conjunction with synoptic meteorological observations of sea level pressure (SLP) and upper-air height to derive composite patterns of cyclonic cloud vortices for the Northern Hemisphere. The patterns reveal variations in the structure and implied dynamics of cyclonic systems at different stages of development that include: (1) increasing vertical symmetry of the lower-level and upper-air circulations and (2) decreasing lower-tropospheric thicknesses and temperature advection, associated with increasing age of the vortex. Cloud vortices are more intense in winter than in summer and typically reach maximum intensity in the short-lived prespiral signature stage. There are major structural differences among frontal wave, polar air, and 'instant occlusion' cyclogenesis types. Cyclones in the dissipation stage may reintensify (deepen), as denoted by the appearance in the imagery of an asymmetric cloud band or a tightened spiral vortex. The satellite-derived statistics on cloud vortex intensity, which are seasonal- and latitude- as well as type-dependent, are applied to a preliminary examination of the synoptic manifestations of seasonal climate variability. An apparently close relationship is found, for two winter and spring seasons, between Northern Hemisphere cyclonic activity and variations in cryosphere variables, particularly the extent of Arctic sea ice. The results may indicate that increased snow and ice extent accompany a southward displacement of cyclonic activity and/or a predominance of deeper systems. However, there is also a strong regional dependence to the ice-synoptics feedback. This study demonstrates the utility of high resolution meteorological satellite imagery for studies of climate variations (climate dynamics).

Carleton, Andrew M.↗

Sampling theory for asynoptic satellite observations. I Space-time spectra, resolution, and aliasing. II - Fast Fourier synoptic mapping

An evaluation of the information content of asynoptic data taken in the form of nadir sonde and limb scan observations is presented, and a one-to-one correspondence is established between the alias-free data and twice-daily synoptic maps. Attention is given to space and time limitations of sampling and the orbital geometry is discussed. The sampling pattern is demonstrated to determine unique space-time spectra at all wavenumbers and frequencies. Spectral resolution and aliasing are explored, while restrictions on sampling and information content are defined. It is noted that irregular sampling at high latitudes produces spurious contamination effects. An Asynoptic Sampling Theorem is thereby formulated, as is a Synoptic Retrieval Theorem, in the second part of the article. In the latter, a procedure is developed for retrieving the unique correspondence between the asymptotic data and the synoptic maps. Applications examples are provided using data from the Nimbus-6 satellite.

Salby, M. L.↗

An evaluation of the synoptic- and mesoscale predictability of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0) model

A report is presented regarding the synoptic- and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a regional-scale numerical weather prediction model known as the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS, Version 2.0). The development of this model has been discussed by Kaplan et al. (1982). An evaluation of the performance of MASS 2.0 is based on the study of a sample of approximately thirty 12 h and 24 h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns over the U.S. during spring and early summer of 1982. A description of model systems is provided, and synoptic-scale evaluation methods are considered along with aspects of mesoscale evaluation methodology, examples of coherent mesoscale information provided by MASS 2.0, the results of a diagnostic study of mesoscale convective systems (MCS), and the results of a limited real-time forecast experiment.

Koch, S. E.↗

Connecting Large‐Scale Meteorological Patterns to Extratropical Cyclones in CMIP6 Climate Models Using Self‐Organizing Maps

Abstract Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are responsible for the majority of cool‐season extreme events in the northeastern United States (NEUS), often leading to high‐impact weather conditions that can have wide‐ranging socioeconomic impacts. Evaluating the ability of climate models to adequately simulate ETC dynamics is essential for improving model performance and increasing confidence in future projections used by stakeholders and policymakers. ETCs are traditionally studied using techniques such as case studies and synoptic typing, however, these approaches can be time‐consuming, require subjective analysis, and do not necessarily identify the coincident large‐scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). Here, we apply self‐organizing maps (SOMs) as an automated machine‐learning approach to characterize the LSMPs and associated frequency and intensity of discrete ETC events over NEUS. The dominant patterns of geopotential height variability are identified through SOM analysis of five reanalysis products during the last four decades. ETC events are tracked using TempestExtremes and are integrated with SOMs to classify the accumulated cyclone activity (ACA) associated with each pattern. We then evaluate the skill of CMIP6 historical experiments in simulating the LSMPs and ETC events identified in the SOM. Our results identify a robust bias toward more zonal patterns, with models struggling to reproduce the more amplified patterns typically associated with the highest cyclone activity. While model resolution has some impact on simulation credibility, model configuration appears to be more important in LSMP representation. The vast majority of CMIP6 models produce too few ETCs, although model errors are distributed around historical reanalyses when ACA is normalized by storm frequency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Application of PRIM for understanding patterns in carbon dioxide model-observation differences

Reducing uncertainties in regional carbon balances requires a better understanding of CO 2 transport in synoptic weather systems. Here, we apply the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM), a data-mining method to identify high-density regions for a target-class within an input parameter space, to airborne observations of potential temperature, wind speed, water vapor mixing ratio, and CO 2 dry mol fraction gathered during the Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT)-America Summer 2016 and Winter 2017 campaigns. ACT observations were targeted at expert-designated cases of fair weather and near-frontal warm and cold sector air at atmospheric boundary-layer, lower-, and higher free tropospheric levels (ABL, LFT, and HFT, respectively). We investigate atmospheric characteristics of these pre-defined cases and associated CO 2 model-observation-differences in the mesoscale WRF-Chem model. PRIM results separate winter- and summertime observations as well as observations from ABL, LFT, and HFT with enrichment factors of 4.0–20.5 inside the PRIM box compared to the entire dataset but cannot distinguish between near-frontal warm and cold sector observations in the higher free troposphere. Analyzing of the parameter space constrained by PRIM, we find that large magnitude model observation differences preferentially associated with times when atmospheric conditions are less typical. This association suggests that PRIM could provide a useful tool for isolating atmospheric conditions with large-magnitude and non-Gaussian CO 2 -residuals for targeted transport model evaluation and to potentially improve inversion results during synoptically active periods.

Gerken, Tobias [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg,↗