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At least 127 records · Page 7

Unsupervised Power System Event Detection and Classification Using Unlabeled PMU Data

This paper proposes a novel data-driven power system event detection and classification method based on 5TB of actual PMU measurements collected from the US western interconnect. Firstly, a set of comprehensive power quality rules are proposed to pre-filter the raw data and extract the regions of interest (ROI). Six distinct event categories are defined and corresponding patterns are chosen as references. Meanwhile, detailed characteristics of patterns are summarized to enhance our understanding of the actual events. Then, the time-independent feature vectors are generated by extracting the statistical, temporal, and spectral features from the raw time-series data. Furthermore, an ensemble model is proposed to cluster the events by combining multiple K-means clustering models using a voting strategy. Besides, both system-level and PMU-level clustering models are developed. The accuracy and robustness of the event detection method are further improved through interactive evaluation of the two-level clustering results. This paper summarizes the actual characteristics of each event category and provides a reliable basis for accurate label generation. The experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed event detection and classification method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Time-Resolved Radioluminescence of the Polynuclear Copper(I) Phosphor Cu4I6²–. Different Temporal responses to Photo, X-Ray, β-Ray and α-Particle Excitation

Described for the first time are the time-resolved radioluminescence (TRRL) properties of the highly luminescent copper(I) cluster Cu4I62– using X-ray, b-ray and a-particle excitation. The copper(I) phosphors are two crystalline salts of this anion, [Na2(18-crown-6)2(H2O)3][Cu4I6] (I) and [Li(benzo-15-crown-5)2(H2O)]2[Cu4I6] (II), that had been shown to display strong photoluminescence (PL) when excited with ultraviolet light. The integrated radioluminescence (RL) spectra observed when pulsed X-rays were used as the excitation source are virtually the same as the PL spectra under comparable conditions. These temporal RL spectra are invariant at all observation times indicating that the observed scintillation occurs from a common excited state (or set of excited states). When the TRRL is collected from excitation with a pulsed X-ray source, b-ray decay from 90Sr or a-decay from 244Cm, the longer components (>2 μs) of the TRRL displayed (in each case) lifetimes comparable to those of the strictly exponential PL decays recorded under pulsed laser UV excitation. However, at shorter observation times (< 500 ns), the RL decay deviated from the exponential model, indicating a markedly different temporal luminescence behavior when these materials were excited with pulsed high energy radiation. Furthermore, this effect was the most pronounced for the a-particle excitation. These results suggest that the absorption of a very high energy X-ray photon, b-ray or a-particle at a site within the crystalline solid leads to a high local density of electronic excited states and that coupling between these states provides an alternative channel for excited state decay. Given that the patterns observed

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Improving Subsurface Stress Characterization for Carbon Dioxide Storage Projects by Incorporating Machine Learning Techniques

The overall objective of this project is to develop a framework for reliable characterization and prediction of the state of stress in the overburden and underburden (including the basement) in CO 2 storage reservoirs using machine learning and integrated geomechanics and geophysical methods. Specifically, we propose to develop workflow encompassing of technologies and/or methods to predict stress and pressure changes due to CO 2 injection in an active tertiary recovery site and their impacts on subtle fault activation, fractures and occurrence of microseismic events and compare responses to field observations. In this project, we anticipate using dataset from the Farnsworth field Unit (FWU) which is operated by Purdure Petroleum. A novel elastic-waveform VSP inversion technique will be used to estimate high-resolution spatial and temporal changes of elastic moduli in CO 2 storage reservoirs, which will be combined with velocity-stress relationship derived from laboratory tests to obtain subsurface pressure and stress. Clustered microseismic data will be jointly inverted for improved focal mechanisms. Least-squares reverse-time migration of microseismic waveform data will be performed to directly image fracture/fault zones. Additionally, a deep neural network machine learning technique with convolutional and recurrent layers will be used for learning the spectro-temporal structures in microseismic waveforms. The results of this geotechnical data analysis will be integrated to develop a high-resolution 3D mechanical earth model extending from the overburden sealing formations to the underburden including the basement. Mechanical properties will be derived through integration of mechanical logs, tests, available results from chemo-mechanical laboratory tests, and elastic inversion of seismic data using a combination of Bayesian and stochastic methods as well as machine learning technique. Failure features (faults/fractures) will be represented and/or modeled based on seismic and core data analysis. A transient hydrodynamic-geomechanical model will be developed through coupling with the calibrated FWU reservoir simulation model. The full physics coupled model will be used to train a reduced order proxy model using machine learning algorithm for estimating stress which will then be used with appropriate constitutive relationships and forward seismological models to simulate pressure changes and induced microseismicity. An advanced optimization framework will be developed to perform a history match to minimize error between field observations and simulated. The history matched proxy model will be verified against the full-physics equivalent. The field observations that will be used in the coupled model calibration process include pressure/stress inverted from VSP, moment magnitude from microseismic analysis, real time downhole pressure measurements, production and injection data. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis will be performed to characterize the impact of model parameter uncertainty on stress estimates. The proposed project will have significant impact on future field implementation of the proposed technology. Because the project field site is an ongoing CO 2 EOR development, the value of the new technology will be demonstrated in an operational context and evaluated as a viable risk mitigation strategy. Cost/benefit will be evaluated together with the various commercial incentives for CO 2 sequestration available to oil and gas operators. The extensive available dataset and ongoing data acquisition under the SWP Phase III work plan provides flexibility for investigation of multiple approaches and reduces technical risk.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Graph-Based Prediction of Spatio-Temporal Vaccine Hesitancy From Insurance Claims Data

Growing vaccine hesitancy is contributing to the decline in immunization rates for highly contagious, vaccine-preventable childhood diseases. Therefore, there has been a significant interest in understanding how hesitancy is spreading at higher spatio-temporal resolutions, enabling more targeted interventions. Motivated by this, we study the problem of prediction of vaccine hesitancy at the ZIP Code level, referred to as the VaxHesitancy problem. A significant challenge for this problem is the lack of high-resolution data that indicates hesitancy. Here, we develop a hybrid VaxHesSTL framework that combines a Graph Neural Network (GNN) and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to address the VaxHesitancy problem. The GNN uses a ZIP Code-level network to capture spatial signals from neighboring areas, while the RNN models the temporal dynamics present in the data. We train and evaluate VaxHesSTL using a large dataset, namely the All-Payer Claims Databases (APCD), for Virginia, consisting of insurance claims from over five million individuals for six years. We find that an aggregated contact network or graph, developed from a detailed activity-based population network, plays an important role in the performance of VaxHesSTL, compared to graph models based solely on spatial proximity. Experiments demonstrate that VaxHesSTL outperforms a range of state-of-the-art baselines, which rely solely on historical time series data without accounting for spatial relationships. Since hesitancy data at higher spatial resolution is often unavailable or hard to get, we incorporate an active learning approach with our VaxHesSTL framework to optimize the training set without compromising the prediction performance. We find that hesitancy data for only 18% of ZIP Codes selected by active learning allows us to forecast hesitancy for all the ZIP Codes in the Virginia.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning-Driven Quantification of CO2 Plume Dynamics at Illinois Basin Decatur Project Sites Using Microseismic Data

This study utilizes machine learning to quantify CO2 plume extents by analyzing microseismic data from the Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP). Leveraging a unique dataset of well logs, microseismic records, and CO2 injection metrics, this work aims to predict the temporal evolution of subsurface CO2 saturation plumes. The findings illustrate that machine learning can predict plume dynamics, revealing vertical clustering of microseismic events over distinct time periods within certain proximities to the injection well, consistent with an invasion percolation model. The buoyant CO2 plume partially trapped within sandstone intervals periodically breaches localized barriers or baffles, which act as leaky seals and impede vertical migration until buoyancy overcomes gravity and capillary forces, leading to breakthroughs along vertical zones of weakness. Between different unsupervised clustering techniques, K-Means and DBSCAN were applied and analyzed in detail, where K-means outperformed DBSCAN in this specific study by indicating the combination of the highest Silhouette Score and the lowest Davies–Bouldin Index. The predictive capability of machine learning models in quantifying CO2 saturation plume extension is significant for real-time monitoring and management of CO2 sequestration sites. The models exhibit high accuracy, validated against physical models and injection data from the IBDP, reinforcing the viability of CO2 geological sequestration as a climate change mitigation strategy and enhancing advanced tools for safe management of these operations.

Iyegbekedo, Ikponmwosa↗

Two-dimensional spatiotemporal coding of linear acceleration in vestibular nuclei neurons

Response properties of vertical (VC) and horizontal (HC) canal/otolith-convergent vestibular nuclei neurons were studied in decerebrate rats during stimulation with sinusoidal linear accelerations (0.2-1.4 Hz) along different directions in the head horizontal plane. A novel characteristic of the majority of tested neurons was the nonzero response often elicited during stimulation along the "null" direction (i.e., the direction perpendicular to the maximum sensitivity vector, Smax). The tuning ratio (Smin gain/Smax gain), a measure of the two-dimensional spatial sensitivity, depended on stimulus frequency. For most vestibular nuclei neurons, the tuning ratio was small at the lowest stimulus frequencies and progressively increased with frequency. Specifically, HC neurons were characterized by a flat Smax gain and an approximately 10-fold increase of Smin gain per frequency decade. Thus, these neurons encode linear acceleration when stimulated along their maximum sensitivity direction, and the rate of change of linear acceleration (jerk) when stimulated along their minimum sensitivity direction. While the Smax vectors were distributed throughout the horizontal plane, the Smin vectors were concentrated mainly ipsilaterally with respect to head acceleration and clustered around the naso-occipital head axis. The properties of VC neurons were distinctly different from those of HC cells. The majority of VC cells showed decreasing Smax gains and small, relatively flat, Smin gains as a function of frequency. The Smax vectors were distributed ipsilaterally relative to the induced (apparent) head tilt. In type I anterior or posterior VC neurons, Smax vectors were clustered around the projection of the respective ipsilateral canal plane onto the horizontal head plane. These distinct spatial and temporal properties of HC and VC neurons during linear acceleration are compatible with the spatiotemporal organization of the horizontal and the vertical/torsional ocular responses, respectively, elicited in the rat during linear translation in the horizontal head plane. In addition, the data suggest a spatially and temporally specific and selective otolith/canal convergence. We propose that the central otolith system is organized in canal coordinates such that there is a close alignment between the plane of angular acceleration (canal) sensitivity and the plane of linear acceleration (otolith) sensitivity in otolith/canal-convergent vestibular nuclei neurons.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

Spatiotemporal Organization of Energy Release Events in the Quiet Solar Corona

Using data from the STEREO and SOHO spacecraft, we show that temporal organization of energy release events in the quiet solar corona is close to random, in contrast to the clustered behavior of flaring times in solar active regions. The locations of the quiet-Sun events follow the meso- and supergranulation pattern of the underling photosphere. Together with earlier reports of the scale-free event size statistics, our findings suggest that quiet solar regions responsible for bulk coronal heating operate in a driven self-organized critical state, possibly involving long-range Alfvenic interactions.

sun activity↗

Spatial and Temporal Signatures of Flux Transfer Events in Global Simulations of Magnetopause Dynamics

Flux transfer events (FTEs) were originally identified by transient bipolar variations of the magnetic field component normal to the nominal magnetopause centered on enhancements in the total magnetic field strength. Recent Cluster and THEMIS multi-point measurements provided a wide range of signatures that are interpreted as evidence for FTE passage (e.g., crater FTE's, traveling magnetic erosion regions). We use the global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code BATS-R-US developed at the University of Michigan to model the global three-dimensional structure and temporal evolution of FTEs during multi-spacecraft magnetopause crossing events. Comparison of observed and simulated signatures and sensitivity analysis of the results to the probe location will be presented. We will demonstrate a variety of observable signatures in magnetic field profile that depend on space probe location with respect to the FTE passage. The global structure of FTEs will be illustrated using advanced visualization tools developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

Kuznetsova, Maria M.↗

Climatic and Socioeconomic Drivers of Water Use and Their Spatio‐Temporal Patterns for Small and Mid‐Sized Cities in the Contiguous United States

This study explores the drivers of urban water use and their spatial-temporal patterns in 142 small and mid-sized cities across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) by analyzing the data directly collected from these cities and using advanced machine learning techniques. We identify five distinguished clusters across CONUS, each showing unique trends of the impact of drivers on water use. We find that socioeconomic factors significantly influence water use in eastern and southwestern cities, while climatic variables such as precipitation and temperature range dominate in central and northwestern regions. Temporal analysis reveals the impacts of major socioeconomic and climatic disruptions on urban water use in the period 2011–2021, including the COVID lockdown, the rapid growth of data centers, and the drought of 2012. In addition, our analysis suggests that economic growth in small and mid-sized US cities continues to be accompanied by rising water use, contrasting with the opposite trend observed in large cities in prior studies. This implies that as smaller cities develop, their water use may increase above current levels until incomes reach a higher threshold, highlighting the need to improve water use efficiency. This study also presents useful insights for developing effective water demand management strategies in response to climatic variability and socioeconomic growth in small and mid-sized cities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nowcasting Earthquakes in Southern California With Machine Learning: Bursts, Swarms, and Aftershocks May Be Related to Levels of Regional Tectonic Stress

Abstract Seismic bursts in Southern California are sequences of small earthquakes strongly clustered in space and time and include seismic swarms and aftershock sequences. A readily observable property of these events, the radius of gyration ( R G ), allows us to connect the bursts to the temporal occurrence of the largest M ≥ 7 earthquakes in California since 1984. In the Southern California earthquake catalog, we identify hundreds of these potentially coherent space‐time structures in a region defined by a circle of radius 600 km around Los Angeles. We compute R G for each cluster then filter them to identify those bursts with large numbers of events closely clustered in space, which we call “compact” bursts. Our basic assumption is that these compact bursts reflect the dynamics associated with large earthquakes. Once we have filtered the burst catalog, we apply an exponential moving average to construct a time series for the Southern California region. We observe that the R G of these bursts systematically decreases prior to large earthquakes, in a process that we might term “radial localization.” The R G then rapidly increases during an aftershock sequence, and a new cycle of “radial localization” then begins. These time series display cycles of recharge and discharge reminiscent of seismic stress accumulation and release in the elastic rebound process. The complex burst dynamics we observe are evidently a property of the region as a whole, rather than being associated with individual faults. This new method allows us to improve earthquake nowcasting, which is a technique to evaluate the current state of hazard in a seismically active region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Statistical moments of VIIRS night-time lights

Annual VIIRS global night-time lights traditionally report mean radiance levels after filtering to remove moonlit and cloudy data followed by outlier removal. The mean is the first statistical moment, but there are three other statistical moments (variance, skew and kurtosis) that are currently not produced globally. In this study, we generated VIIRS day/night band multiyear and annual statistical moments for a widely dispersed set of test areas. The moments were calculated from 15 arc second nightly temporal profiles spanning 2012-2020, filtered to exclude cloudy and sunlit data, with radiance adjustments to reduce view angle and lunar illuminance effects. The moment data were examined in two ways: (1) Geospatial grids-which reveal zonation and temporal changes present in urban areas and (2) Scattergrams of moment pairs. The variance versus mean scattergram exhibits several distinct data clusters used to define five zones: core lighting, dark-erratics, mid-erratics, bright-erratics and bright and seteady. The results indicate that the information content of VIIRS night-time lights can be augmented if all four statistical moments are calculated.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

JIRIAF: JLAB Integrated Research Infrastructure Acros Facilities

The JIRIAF project aims to combine geographically diverse computing facilities into an integrated science infrastructure. This project starts by dynamically evaluating temporarily unallocated or idled compute resources from multiple providers. These resources are integrated to handle additional workloads without affecting local running jobs. This paper describes our approach to launch best-effort batch tasks which exploit these underutilized resources. Our system measures the real-time behavior of jobs running on a machine and learns to distinguish typical performance from outliers. Unsupervised ML techniques are used to analyze hardware-level performance measures, followed by a real-time cross-correlation analysis to determine which applications cause performance degradation. We then ameliorate bad behavior by throttling these processes. We demonstrate that problematic performance interference can be detected and acted on, which makes it possible to continue to share resources between applications and simultaneously maintain high utilization levels in a computing cluster. We relocate the CLAS12 data processing workflow to a remote data center for a case study, preventing file migration and temporal data persistency.

Lawrence, David↗

Time Dependence of Collision Probabilities During Satellite Conjunctions

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team has recently implemented updated software to calculate the probability of collision (P (sub c)) for Earth-orbiting satellites. The algorithm can employ complex dynamical models for orbital motion, and account for the effects of non-linear trajectories as well as both position and velocity uncertainties. This “3D P (sub c)” method entails computing a 3-dimensional numerical integral for each estimated probability. Our analysis indicates that the 3D method provides several new insights over the traditional “2D P (sub c)” method, even when approximating the orbital motion using the relatively simple Keplerian two-body dynamical model. First, the formulation provides the means to estimate variations in the time derivative of the collision probability, or the probability rate, R (sub c). For close-proximity satellites, such as those orbiting in formations or clusters, R (sub c) variations can show multiple peaks that repeat or blend with one another, providing insight into the ongoing temporal distribution of risk. For single, isolated conjunctions, R (sub c) analysis provides the means to identify and bound the times of peak collision risk. Additionally, analysis of multiple actual archived conjunctions demonstrates that the commonly used “2D P (sub c)” approximation can occasionally provide inaccurate estimates. These include cases in which the 2D method yields negligibly small probabilities (e.g., P (sub c)) is greater than 10 (sup -10)), but the 3D estimates are sufficiently large to prompt increased monitoring or collision mitigation (e.g., P (sub c) is greater than or equal to 10 (sup -5)). Finally, the archive analysis indicates that a relatively efficient calculation can be used to identify which conjunctions will have negligibly small probabilities. This small-P (sub c) screening test can significantly speed the overall risk analysis computation for large numbers of conjunctions.

Hall, Doyle T.↗

Spatial and temporal relations between coronae and extensional belts, northern Lada Terra, Venus

Preliminary studies of the distribution of coronae and volcanic rises on Venus show that many of these features tend to cluster along zones of rifting and extension. The plains north of Lada Terra are crossed by two such extensional belts. Each belt is composed of grabens, ridges, faults, volcanic flows, coronae and coronalike features. The longer and more prominent belt is the NW trending Alpha-Lada extensional belt, which is over 6000 km long and 50-200 km wide, and includes the coronae Eve, Tamfana, Carpo, Selu, Derceto, Otygen, and an unnamed corona south of Otygen. The second belt is the NNE trending Derceto-Quetzalpetlatl extensional belt, which is about 2000 km long and in places over 300 km wide, and includes the coronae Sarpanitum, Eithinoha, and Quetzalpetlatl. The two belts intersect at the 1600 x 600 km wide Derceto volcanic plateau. It is apparent that deformation along the two belts overlapped in time, though deformation along the Alpha-Lada extensional belt probably continued after the deformation along the Derceto-Quetzalpetlatl extensional belt terminated. In certain areas, volcanism originated in grabens within the extensional belts, whereas in other areas, such as in Eve, Selu, Derceto, and Quetzalpetlatl, volcanism originated in the coronae and flowed into the lower parts of the extensional belts. Regional extension has affected the evolution of all the coronae at some stage of their development. Regional deformation occurred before the initiation of Derceto and Eithinoha of their development. Regional deformation occurred before the initiation of Derceto and Eithinoha and after the initiation of Carpo, Tamfana, Otygen, and Sarpanitum. It is thus unlikely that coronae formation along the belts is solely a consequence of the regional extension, and it is also unlikely that regional extension has been caused solely by the coronae. No corona along the belts was formed subsequent to the cessation of the regional extension. We therefore suggest that the regional extension and the coronae are interrelated. Some of the coronae may have determined the location of the surface expression of the regional extension, whereas the locations of other coronae may have been influenced by the concentration of regional extensional stresses.

Baer, Gidon↗

Quasi-Periodic Whistler Mode Emission in the Plasmasphere as Observed By the DSX Spacecraft

We describe the quasi-periodic (QP) whistler-mode emissions found in the plasmasphere as detected by electric and magnetic instrumentation onboard the Demonstration and Science Experiments (DSX) spacecraft in medium Earth orbit. Over the course of the nearly 2-year mission, at least 45 episodes of whistler mode QP emissions were detected by the Broad Band Receiver (BBR) onboard DSX. Episodes of QP emissions were identified by discrete events having a clear unambiguous periodic nature as detected by both the electric antennae and search coil magnetic sensor in the BBR survey data at 30 second temporal resolution. Most of the QP episodes occurred in a frequency range between 1- 4 kHz, in a band previously identified by Van Allen Probes and Cluster investigators. However, episodes were also detected by DSX at higher frequencies - events in these episodes extending all the way to 15 kHz. We present our findings on these unusual high frequency events in the presentation herein. Specifically, these high frequency QP episodes tended to be observed near dawn/dusk when the spacecraft was at relatively high magnetic latitudes and on magnetic L-shells between 3-5. Another unusual feature of these episodes is that individual up-drifting events making up the episode were found to sometimes occur concurrently in time: The high frequency portion of one up-drifting ‘polliwog-shaped’ event overlapped in time with the low frequency portion of the subsequent event. This behavior of the QP emissions has not been previously emphasized and we consider how this temporal concurrence relates to the source processes.

Quasi-periodic↗

A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary erratically day-to-day; in contrast, daily case-counts used in contemporary surveillance algorithms are corrupted by reporting errors. The technical challenge lies in estimating the latent infection-rate from case-counts. Here we devise a Bayesian method to estimate the infection-rate across multiple adjoining areal units, and then use it, via an anomaly detector, to discern a change in epidemiological dynamics. We extend an existing model for estimating the infection-rate in an areal unit by incorporating a Markov random field model, so that we may estimate infection-rates across multiple areal units, while preserving spatial correlations observed in the epidemiological dynamics. To carry out the high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem, we develop an implementation of mean-field variational inference specific to the infection model and integrate it with the random field model to incorporate correlations across counties. The method is tested on estimating the COVID-19 infection-rates across all 33 counties in New Mexico using data from the summer of 2020, and then employing them to detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave. We perform the detection using a temporal algorithm that is applied county-by-county. We also show how the infection-rate field can be used to cluster counties with similar epidemiological dynamics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Uhuru observations of the Norma X-ray burster

Four X-ray bursts consistent with a single source in Norma are reported which were discovered by reexamining Uhuru data obtained between 1970 and 1973. The temporal and spectral characteristics of the bursts are described and shown to be similar to those displayed by bursts from the globular cluster NGC 6224. An error box of the source location is given, and it is found that both the position and intensity of the four bursts are consistent with those of 10 bursts detected by the Vela satellites in 1976. It is concluded that the source is the same as that observed by the Vela and is an X-ray burster with characteristics similar to those of certain other bursters. XB 1608-52 is suggested as the designation of this burster, possible burst models are considered, and it is noted that the error box of the present source contains an identified globular cluster.

Grindlay, J.↗

HEAO A-2 extragalactic results

Results from the HEAO A-2 experiment concerning the extragalactic X-ray sky are discussed. All-sky maps of hard X-ray sources detected are presented reflecting the temporal variability of the sources that make up the extragalactic X-ray sky. Most of the identified extragalactic objects are not clusters of galaxies but isolated galaxies. Spectra for sources representing classes of active galz galaxies, BL Lacertae objects, and N galaxies are discussed in order of luminosity.

Boldt, E. A.↗