SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “temporal correlation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2006

Spatiotemporal Filtering Using Principal Component Analysis and Karhunen-Loeve Expansion Approaches for Regional GPS Network Analysis

Spatial filtering is an effective way to improve the precision of coordinate time series for regional GPS networks by reducing so-called common mode errors, thereby providing better resolution for detecting weak or transient deformation signals. The commonly used approach to regional filtering assumes that the common mode error is spatially uniform, which is a good approximation for networks of hundreds of kilometers extent, but breaks down as the spatial extent increases. A more rigorous approach should remove the assumption of spatially uniform distribution and let the data themselves reveal the spatial distribution of the common mode error. The principal component analysis (PCA) and the Karhunen-Loeve expansion (KLE) both decompose network time series into a set of temporally varying modes and their spatial responses. Therefore they provide a mathematical framework to perform spatiotemporal filtering.We apply the combination of PCA and KLE to daily station coordinate time series of the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) for the period 2000 to 2004. We demonstrate that spatially and temporally correlated common mode errors are the dominant error source in daily GPS solutions. The spatial characteristics of the common mode errors are close to uniform for all east, north, and vertical components, which implies a very long wavelength source for the common mode errors, compared to the spatial extent of the GPS network in southern California. Furthermore, the common mode errors exhibit temporally nonrandom patterns.

displacement↗

DOE OSTI2015

Transcendental equations in the Schwinger-Keldysh nonequilibrium theory and nonvanishing correlations

The Schwinger-Keldysh nonequilibrium theory allows the description of various transport phenomena involving bosons (fermions) embedded in bosonic (fermionic) environments. The retarded Green’s function obeys the Dyson equation and determines via its non-vanishing asymptotic behavior the dissipationless open dynamics. The appearance of this regime is conditioned by the existence of the solution of a general class of transcendental equations in complex domain that we study. Particular cases consist in transcendental equations containing exponential, hyperbolic, power law, logarithmic, and special functions. The present analysis provides an analytical description of the thermal and temporal correlation function of two general observables of a quantum system in terms of the corresponding spectral function. Special integral properties of the spectral function guarantee non-vanishing asymptotic behavior of the correlation function.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

A scalable planning framework of energy storage systems under frequency dynamics constraints

As the penetration of renewables increases in power systems, the declining system inertia can cause frequency stability issues. Battery energy storage systems (BESSs) respond fast and therefore can relieve the low inertia difficulty but need to be appropriately sized considering the associated cost. This paper presents a novel stochastic optimization model for economically planning BESS capacity while considering the spatial–temporal correlation of wind generation and generator outages under frequency stability constraints, which include the rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF), frequency nadir (FN), and quasi-steady-state (QSS) frequency. A set of new FN constraints that can be easily linearized is developed. To account for renewable uncertainties, a realistic uncertainty modeling approach, Random Field, is adopted to generate wind generation scenarios by considering both spatial and temporal evolutions of wind speed profiles. The ESS sizing is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming problem and solved by using a scalable decomposition-and-coordination approach, Surrogate Absolute Value Lagrangian Relaxation (SAVLR). To further improve the scalability and reduce computational burdens, a rolling-horizon-based update is developed and incorporated into SAVLR for providing a practical solution to the long-term planning of very large-scale power systems. Finally, a modified IEEE 118-bus system and the Polish system are used to validate the effectiveness and scalability of the model and solution methodology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1986

Comparison of solar hard X-ray and UV line and continuum bursts with high time resolution

The close temporal correlation between the ultraviolet line emission from OV (lambda 1371A) and hard X-rays above 30 keV has been previously established from a comparison of data sets from the Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter (UVSP) and Hard X-Ray Burst Spectrometer (HXRBS) instruments on Solar Maximum Mission (SMM). Corresponding features were found to be coincident to within 1 s. Following the SMM repair, similar measurements were made for a flare occurring on May 20, 1984, at 0259 UT, this time with UVSP observing in the continuum near 1600A with much higher time resolution (75ms). The simultaneity of several features in this flare were established to better than 0.1 s, thus reinforcing the close relationship between hard X-ray and UV emission. Following the repair of the UVSP wavelength drive, similar measurements were repeated for a flare occurring at 0148 UT on April 24, 1985. This event was observed simultaneously in the OV line, the UV continuum and in hard X-rays by the same SMM instruments. Temporal comparisons of the three data sets show that, for a few selected features, simultaneity of the hard X-ray and UV emissions does exist. However, cross-correlation analyses of the entire data sets indicate that there is a trend for the fastest OV emission features to be delayed with respect to the hard X-rays by approx. 260 ms. On the other hand the fast OV and UV continuum features are simultaneous to within the instrumental uncertainty. The combined results have established the close relationship of the impulsive phase hard X-ray and UV continuum and OV line emissions. They lend support to the argument that both the hard X-ray and UV radiations originate low in the solar atmosphere.

Orwig, L. E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

The 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled land data assimilation system for E3SM version 2

Abstract. A new weakly coupled land data assimilation (WCLDA) system based on the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method is developed and applied to the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). The dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) method is employed to implement 4DVar using the ensemble technique instead of the adjoint technique. With an interest in providing initial conditions for decadal climate predictions, monthly mean anomalies of soil moisture and temperature from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) reanalysis from 1980 to 2016 are assimilated into the land component of E3SMv2 within the coupled modeling framework with a 1-month assimilation window. The coupled assimilation experiment is evaluated using multiple metrics, including the cost function, assimilation efficiency index, correlation, root-mean-square error (RMSE), and bias, and compared with a control simulation without land data assimilation. The WCLDA system yields improved simulation of soil moisture and temperature compared with the control simulation, with improvements found throughout the soil layers and in many regions of the global land. In terms of both soil moisture and temperature, the assimilation experiment outperforms the control simulation with reduced RMSE and higher temporal correlation in many regions, especially in South America, central Africa, Australia, and large parts of Eurasia. Furthermore, significant improvements are also found in reproducing the time evolution of the 2012 US Midwest drought, highlighting the crucial role of land surface in drought lifecycle. The WCLDA system is intended to be a foundational resource for research to investigate land-derived climate predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2005

NASA GES DISC On-line Visualization and Analysis System for Gridded Remote Sensing Data

The ability to use data stored in the current NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) archives for studying regional or global phenomena is highly dependent on having a detailed understanding of the data's internal structure and physical implementation. Gaining this understanding and applying it to data reduction is a time-consuming task that must be undertaken before the core investigation can begin. This is an especially difficult challenge when science objectives require users to deal with large multi-sensor data sets that are usually of different formats, structures, and resolutions. The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) has taken a major step towards meeting this challenge by developing an infrastructure with a Web interface that allows users to perform interactive analysis online without downloading any data, the GES-DISC Interactive Online Visualization and Analysis Infrastructure or "Giovanni." Giovanni provides interactive, online, analysis tools for data users to facilitate their research. There have been several instances of this interface created to serve TRMM users, Aerosol scientists, Ocean Color and Agriculture applications users. The first generation of these tools support gridded data only. The user selects geophysical parameters, area of interest, time period; and the system generates an output on screen in a matter of seconds. The currently available output options are: Area plot averaged or accumulated over any available data period for any rectangular area; Time plot time series averaged over any rectangular area; Hovmoller plots image view of any longitude-time and latitude-time cross sections; ASCII output for all plot types; Image animation for area plot. Another analysis suite deals with parameter intercomparison: scatter plots, temporal correlation maps, GIs-compatible outputs, etc. This allow user to focus on data content (i.e. science parameters) and eliminate the need for expensive learning, development and processing tasks that are redundantly incurred by an archive's user community. The current implementation utilizes the GrADS-DODS Server (GDS), and provides subsetting and analysis services across the Internet for any GrADS-readable dataset. The subsetting capability allows users to retrieve a specified temporal and/or spatial subdomain from a large dataset, eliminating the need to download everything simply to access a small relevant portion of a dataset. The analysis capability allows users to retrieve the results of an operation applied to one or more datasets on the server. We use this approach to read pre-processed binary files and/or to read and extract the needed parts directly from HDF or HDF-EOS files. These subsets then serve as inputs into GrADS analysis scripts. It can be used in a wide variety of Earth science applications: climate and weather events study and monitoring; modeling. It can be easily configured for new applications.

Leptoukh, Gregory G.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Cell response to quasi-monochromatic light with different coherence

The problem of the light coherence effect on the magnitude of the photoinduced cell response is discussed. The origins of ambiguous interpretation of the known experimental results are considered. Using the biological models, essentially differing in anatomy, morphology and biological functions (acrospires of radish, blackberry microsprouts cultivated in vitro, plum pollen), the effect of statistical properties of quasi-monochromatic light (λ{sub max} = 633 nm) on the magnitude of the photoinduced cell response is shown. It is found that for relatively low spatial coherence, the cell functional activity changes insignificantly. The maximal enhancement of growing processes (stimulating effect) is observed when the coherence length L{sub coh} and the correlation radius r{sub cor} are greater than the cell size, i.e., the entire cell fits into the field coherence volume. In this case, the representative indicators (germination of seeds and pollen, the spears length) exceeds those of non-irradiated objects by 1.7 – 3.9 times. For more correct assessment of the effect of light statistical properties on photocontrol processes, it is proposed to replace the qualitative description (coherent – incoherent) with the quantitative one, using the determination of spatial and temporal correlation functions and comparing them with the characteristic dimensions of the biological structures, e.g., the cell size. (biophotonics)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Coherence Analysis of the Space Launch System using Unsteady Pressure Sensitive Paint

Transonic buffet during atmospheric ascent is a major source of unsteady loading on launch vehicles that, in the past, has led to structural failures. Thus, determining accurate buffet forcing functions (BFFs) to properly predict the vehicle response to buffet is of vital importance in launch vehicle design. The state of the art for obtaining the BFFs relies on wind-tunnel tests where the fluctuating pressures are measured by pressure transducers (PTs) at sparse locations on a rigid, geometrically-scaled buffet model. To compute the BFFs, the outer mold line (OML) of the vehicle is mapped onto contiguous panels centered at the location of the PTs and the measured fluctuating pressures are integrated over the panels’ areas. To mitigate conservatism due to the assumption that the measured buffet pressures act in phase across each panel, coherence factors are applied, effectively reducing the integration areas and, therefore, the buffet forces. For coherence factors to provide the proper level of BFF attenuation, accurate knowledge of the spatial and temporal correlation of the buffet pressures is paramount. Unfortunately, even with hundreds of unsteady pressure transducers instrumenting the models, compromises must be made on the spatial resolution of the PTs. Typically, the PT layout aims at resolving the pressure correlation along the longitudinal axis of the vehicle, assuming that coherent structures propagate mostly in the longitudinal direction. As a result, the distribution of azimuthal/cross-stream correlation is not well known and its impact on the estimated BFFs is often neglected. To fill this and other knowledge gaps, extremely high spatial-resolution uPSP data were collected for three different production-design configurations of the Space Launch System in the NASA Ames Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel 11-Foot Transonic Wind Tunnel. Specifically, two cargo configurations, the Block 1 and Block 1B, and one crew configuration, the Block 1B crew, were surveyed at resolutions ranging from 600,000 to over 1 million uPSP measurement locations. To shed light on the temporal and spectral behavior of are presented. Several OML regions and flow features of interest are investigated, from theexpansion/shock on the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, to the terminal shock environment on the core stage, and the Strouhal shedding behind the boosters forward attach. The sensitivity of these environments to the vehicle attitude is examined. Furthermore, for selected panels,coherence factors that accurately capture the azimuthal coherence distribution of the buffetpressures are derived and their impact on the estimated BFFs is discussed. Finally, distributions of the local convection velocity and cross spectrum phase are presented.

buffet↗

DOE OSTI2016

Confronting Weather and Climate Models with Observational Data from Soil Moisture Networks over the United States

Four land surface models in uncoupled and coupled configurations are compared to observations of daily soil moisture from 19 networks in the conterminous United States to determine the viability of such comparisons and explore the characteristics of model and observational data. First, observations are analyzed for error characteristics and representation of spatial and temporal variability. Some networks have multiple stations within an area comparable to model grid boxes; for those it is found that aggregation of stations before calculation of statistics has little effect on estimates of variance, but soil moisture memory is sensitive to aggregation. Statistics for some networks stand out as unlike those of their neighbors, likely because of differences in instrumentation, calibration, and maintenance. Buried sensors appear to have less random error than near-field remote sensing techniques, and heat-dissipation sensors show less temporal variability than other types. Model soil moistures are evaluated using three metrics: standard deviation in time, temporal correlation (memory), and spatial correlation (length scale). Models do relatively well in capturing large-scale variability of metrics across climate regimes, but they poorly reproduce observed patterns at scales of hundreds of kilometers and smaller. Uncoupled land models do no better than coupled model configurations, nor do reanalyses outperform free-running models. Spatial decorrelation scales are found to be difficult to diagnose. Using data for model validation, calibration, or data assimilation from multiple soil moisture networks with different types of sensors and measurement techniques requires great caution. Finally, data from models and observations should be put on the same spatial and temporal scales before comparison.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Stochastic correlation analysis to rank the impact of intermittent wind generation on unreliability margins of power systems

Power systems are vulnerable to extreme contingencies (like an outage of a major generating substation or transmission line) that can cause significant generation and load loss and can lead to further cascading outages of other transmission facilities and generators in the system. Power systems operators take time-ahead actions (real time to day ahead) actions based on forecasted data as well as telemetry. However, there is a probability of extreme swings in wind generation that can push the power system that is already close to system boundaries into unreliable states. Increasing penetration on wind generation and uncertainties in short term forecast can move the system into operational states that can violate N-1 reliability criteria. While the power system planning accounts for worst case analyses to mitigate such emergencies, it is necessary to understand the spatial and temporal correlation of load buses with intermittent wind generation. The ranking of wind generators based on stochastic correlation to unreliability margins of load buses provides an insight of system vulnerabilities that can be corrected by appropriate emergency controls. A Monte-Carlo simulation of wind uncertainty forecast is performed to identify the probability distributions of unreliability margins. Ranking of wind generators is performed based on stochastic correlation analysis of the wind power generated and the load losses at the buses. This helps in not only identifying weak buses in the power system but also in identifying the vulnerable wind locations to plan for system reinforcements. Power system modeling and hybrid simulation to calculate unreliability margins are performed using DCAT and demonstrated on the 32-bus Nordic test system.

generators, wind forecasting, wind power generatio↗

NASA NTRS2009

Evidence for an Intermediate Mass Black Hole in NGC 5408 X-1

We report the discovery with XMM-Newton of correlated spectral and timing behavior in the ultraluminous X-ray source (ULX) NGC 5408 X-1. An approx. 100 ksec pointing with XMM/Newton obtained in January, 2008 reveals a strong 10 mHz QPO in the > 1 keV flux, as well as flat-topped, band limited noise breaking to a power law. The energy spectrum is again dominated by two components, a 0.16 keV thermal disk and a power-law with an index of approx. 2.5. These new measurements, combined with results from our previous January 2006 pointing in which we first detected QPOs, show for the first time in a ULX a pattern of spectral and temporal correlations strongly analogous to that seen in Galactic black hole sources, but at much higher X-ray luminosity and longer characteristic time-scales. We find that the QPO frequency is proportional to the inferred disk flux, while the QPO and broad-band noise amplitude (root mean squared, rms) are inversely proportional to the disk flux. Assuming that QPO frequency scales inversely with black hole mass at a given power-law spectral index we derive mass estimates using the observed QPO frequency - spectral index relations from five stellar-mass black hole systems with dynamical mass constraints. The results from all sources are consistent with a mass range for NGC 5408 X-1 from 1000 - 9000 Stellar mass. We argue that these are conservative limits, and a more likely range is from 2000 - 5000 Stellar mass. Moreover, the recent relation from Gierlinski et al. that relates black hole mass to the strength of variability at high frequencies (above the break in the power spectrum), and the variability plane results of McHardy et al. and Koerding et al., are also suggestive of such a. high mass for NGC 5408 X-1. Importantly, none of the above estimates appears consistent with a black hole mass less than approx. 1000 Stellar mass for NGC 5408 X-1. We argue that these new findings strongly support the conclusion that NGC 5408 X-1 harbors an intermediate mass black hole.

Strohmayer, Tod E.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A TCN-Based Hybrid Forecasting Framework for Hours-Ahead Utility-Scale PV Forecasting

This paper presents a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) based hybrid PV forecasting framework for enhancing hours-ahead utility-scale PV forecasting. The hybrid framework consists of two forecasting models: a physics-based trend forecasting (TF) model and a data-driven fluctuation forecasting (FF) model. Three TCNs are integrated in the framework for: i) blending the inputs from different Numerical Weather Prediction sources for the TF model to achieve superior performance on forecasting hourly PV profiles, ii) capturing spatial-temporal correlations between detector sites and the target site in the FF model to achieve more accurate forecast of intra- hour PV power drops, and iii) reconciling TF and FF results to obtain coherent hours-ahead PV forecast with both hourly trends and intra-hour fluctuations well preserved. To automatically identify the most contributive neighboring sites for forming a detector network, a scenario-based correlation analysis method is developed, which significantly improves the capability of the FF model on capturing large power fluctuations caused by cloud movements. Here, the framework is developed, tested, and validated using actual PV data collected from 95 PV farms in North Carolina. Simulation results show that the performance of 6 hours ahead PV power forecasting is improved by 20% - 30% compared with state-of-the-art methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Frequency domain analysis of errors in cross-correlations of ambient seismic noise

We analyse random errors (variances) in cross-correlations of ambient seismic noise in the frequency domain, which differ from previous time domain methods. Extending previous theoretical results on ensemble averaged cross-spectrum, we estimate confidence interval of stacked cross-spectrum of finite amount of data at each frequency using non-overlapping windows with fixed length. The extended theory also connects amplitude and phase variances with the variance of each complex spectrum value. Analysis of synthetic stationary ambient noise is used to estimate the confidence interval of stacked cross-spectrum obtained with different length of noise data corresponding to different number of evenly spaced windows of the same duration. This method allows estimating Signal/Noise Ratio (SNR) of noise cross-correlation in the frequency domain, without specifying filter bandwidth or signal/noise windows that are needed for time domain SNR estimations. Based on synthetic ambient noise data, we also compare the probability distributions, causal part amplitude and SNR of stacked cross-spectrum function using one-bit normalization or pre-whitening with those obtained without these pre-processing steps. Natural continuous noise records contain both ambient noise and small earthquakes that are inseparable from the noise with the existing pre-processing steps. Using probability distributions of random cross-spectrum values based on the theoretical results provides an effective way to exclude such small earthquakes, and additional data segments (outliers) contaminated by signals of different statistics (e.g. rain, cultural noise), from continuous noise waveforms. This technique is applied to constrain values and uncertainties of amplitude and phase velocity of stacked noise cross-spectrum at different frequencies, using data from southern California at both regional scale (~35 km) and dense linear array (~20 m) across the plate-boundary faults. A block bootstrap resampling method is used to account for temporal correlation of noise cross-spectrum at low frequencies (0.05–0.2 Hz) near the ocean microseismic peaks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Simultaneous Monitoring of X-Ray and Radio Variability in Sagittarius A*

Monitoring of Sagittarius A* from X-ray to radio wavelengths has revealed structured variability—including X-ray flares—but it is challenging to establish correlations between them. Most studies have focused on variability in the X-ray and infrared, where variations are often simultaneous, and because long time series at submillimeter and radio wavelengths are limited. Previous work on submillimeter and radio variability hints at a lag between X-ray flares and their candidate submillimeter or radio counterparts, with the long wavelength data lagging the X-ray. However, there is only one published time lag between an X-ray flare and a possible radio counterpart. Here we report nine contemporaneous X-ray and radio observations of Sgr A*. We detect significant radio variability peaking ≳176 minutes after the brightest X-ray flare ever detected from Sgr A*. We also report other potentially associated X-ray and radio variability, with the radio peaks appearing ≲80 minutes after these weaker X-ray flares. Taken at face value, these results suggest that stronger X-ray flares lead to longer time lags in the radio. However, we also test the possibility that the variability at X-ray and radio wavelengths is not temporally correlated. We cross-correlate data from mismatched X-ray and radio epochs and obtain comparable correlations to the matched data. Hence, we find no overall statistical evidence that X-ray flares and radio variability are correlated, underscoring a need for more simultaneous, long duration X-ray–radio monitoring of Sgr A*.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1998

Wind Forcing of the North Sea Pole Tide

The Chandler wobble of the earth's rotation has a period near 14 months and sets up the 0.5 cm amplitude pole tide in the deep oceans, However, the pole tide is anomalously large in the North Sea, where the amplitude increases sharply up to 3 cm along the continental coast. It is shown here that the sea levels are well correlated with winds at the pole tide frequency. The Princeton Ocean Model is used to investigate the response of the North Sea to wind forcing. The barotropic numerical ocean model depicts realistic coastlines and bathymetry at 5 ft x 5 ft resolution, with 97 x 73 grid points. The monthly mean wind fields for the 40-year period (1958-1997) from the National Centers for Atmospheric Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis were used to force the model. The winds were converted to stress with a neutral drag coefficient that varied linearly with windspeed (instead of using the NCEP windstress). A 5-day simulation was made for each month until the resulting flow regime came into equilibrium, and model water levels at various station locations were saved for comparison with tidal-gauge observed sea levels from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL). The comparison is made for 10 North Sea stations with high quality tide gauge data. We find: (1) good agreement in annual and semi-annual phases and in the trend of amplitude w.r.t. latitude; (2) more importantly for this study, the model-predicted and observed non-seasonal sea level variations show a very significant temporal correlation as well as spectral coherence. However, a large amplitude difference exists between the two sets -- the overall amplitude variability of the observed is generally a factor of 2-3 larger than the model prediction (this same phenomenon has been reported in ocean circulation studies, although the cause is not yet clear.) Our results indicate that the wind forcing is the main cause of the observed large pole tide in the North Sea.

OConnor, W.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A general spatial-temporal framework for short-term building temperature forecasting at arbitrary locations with crowdsourcing weather data

Weather forecasting has been a critical component to predict and control building energy consumption for better building energy management. Without accessibility to other data sources, the onsite observed temperatures or the airport temperatures are used in forecast models. In this paper, we present a novel approach by utilizing the crowdsourcing weather data from neighboring personal weather stations (PWS) to improve the weather forecast accuracy around buildings using a general spatial-temporal modeling framework. The final forecast is based on the ensemble of local forecasts for the target location using neighboring PWSs. Our approach is distinguished from existing literature in various aspects. First, we leverage the crowdsourcing weather data from PWS in addition to public data sources. In this way, the data is at much finer time resolution (e.g., at 5-minute frequency) and spatial resolution (e.g., arbitrary location vs grid). Second, our proposed model incorporates spatial-temporal correlation information of weather variables between the target building and a set of neighboring PWSs so that underlying correlations can be effectively captured to improve forecasting performance. Here, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed framework by comparing to the benchmark models on temperature forecasting for a building located at an arbitrary location at San Antonio, Texas, USA. In general, the proposed model framework equipped with machine learning technique such as Random Forest can improve forecasting by 50% compares with persistent model and has 90% chance to outperform airport forecast in short-term forecasting. In a real-time setting, the proposed model framework can provide more accurate temperature forecasting results compared with using airport temperature forecast for most forecast horizon. Moreover, we analyze the sensitivity of model parameters to gain insights on how crowdsourcing data from the neighboring personal weather stations impacts forecasting performance. Finally, we implement our model in other cities such as Syracuse and Chicago to test the model's performance in different landforms and climate types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Challenges and perspectives for large-scale temperature reconstructions of the past two millennia

Knowledge of the temperature variability during the last one to two millennia is important for providing a perspective to present-day climate excursions, for assessing the sensitivity of the climate to different forcings, and for providing a test bed for climate models. Since systematic instrumental temperature records only extend back to the nineteenth century, such knowledge mainly relies on climate-sensitive proxy data. Here we critically assess some of the many challenges related to large-scale multiproxy temperature reconstructions. We begin with a review of available large-scale temperature reconstructions, focusing on the differences in low-frequency variability and the response to natural forcings such as major volcanic eruptions and changes in total solar irradiance. Then, we discuss different proxy selection strategies, review previously used reconstruction methods, and discuss their ability to reconstruct the amplitude of the low-frequency variability. To shed additional light on the challenges of large-scale reconstructions, we investigate the spatial and temporal correlation structures in the observed temperature field and discuss the implications of these correlation structures regarding the required number and positions of proxies. We demonstrate how the unavoidable uncertainty related to noisy proxies will show up as bias and variance in the reconstruction and that the partition between these forms of errors depends on the reconstruction method. Pseudo-proxy experiments are conducted to further discuss the influence of noise and the requirements regarding the geographical location and number of proxies necessary for reliably reconstructing the low-frequency variability. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for future large-scale temperature reconstructions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Nonlinear Fluctuating Hydrodynamics for the Classical XXZ Spin Chain

Using the framework of nonlinear fluctuating hydrodynamics (NFH), we examine equilibrium spatio-temporal correlations in classical ferromagnetic spin chains with nearest neighbor interactions. In particular, we consider the classical XXZ-Heisenberg spin chain (also known as Lattice Landau–Lifshitz or LLL model) evolving deterministically and chaotically via Hamiltonian dynamics, for which energy and z-magnetization are the only locally conserved fields. For the easy-plane case, this system has a low-temperature regime in which the difference between neighboring spin’s angular orientations in the XY plane is an almost conserved field. According to the predictions of NFH, the dynamic correlations in this regime exhibit a heat peak and propagating sound peaks, all with anomalous broadening. We present a detailed molecular dynamics test of these predictions and find a reasonably accurate verification. Additionally, we find that, in a suitable intermediate temperature regime, the system shows two sound peaks with Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) scaling and a heat peak where the expected anomalous broadening is less clear. In high temperature regimes of both easy plane and easy axis case of LLL, our numerics show clear diffusive spin and energy peaks and absence of any sound modes, as one would expect. We also simulate an integrable version of the XXZ-model, for which the ballistic component instead moves with a broad range of speeds rather than being concentrated in narrower peaks around the sound speed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗