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JPL Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) Portal

Satellite observations can play a very important role in airborne field campaigns, since they provide a comprehensive description of the environment that is essential for the experiment design, flight planning, and post-experiment scientific data analysis. In the past, it has been difficult to fully utilize data from multiple NASA satellites due to the large data volume, the complexity of accessing NASA s data in near-real-time (NRT), as well as the lack of software tools to interact with multi-sensor information. The JPL GRIP Portal is a Web portal that serves a comprehensive set of NRT observation data sets from NASA and NOAA satellites describing the atmospheric and oceanic environments related to the genesis and intensification of the tropical storms in the North Atlantic Ocean. Together with the model forecast data from four major global atmospheric models, this portal provides a useful tool for the scientists and forecasters in planning and monitoring the NASA GRIP field campaign during the 2010 Atlantic Ocean hurricane season. This portal uses the Google Earth plug-in to visualize various types of data sets, such as 2D maps, wind vectors, streamlines, 3D data sets presented at series of vertical cross-sections or pointwise vertical profiles, and hurricane best tracks and forecast tracks. Additionally, it allows users to overlap multiple data sets, change the opacity of each image layer, generate animations on the fly with selected data sets, and compare the observation data with the model forecast using two independent calendars. The portal also provides the capability to identify the geographic location of any point of interest. In addition to supporting the airborne mission planning, the NRT data and portal will serve as a very rich source of information during the post-field campaign analysis stage of the airborne experiment. By including a diverse set of satellite observations and model forecasts, it provides a good spatial and temporal context for the high-resolution, but limited in space and time, airborne observations.

Knosp, Brian W.↗

Inter- and intra-plate deformation at North American plate boundaries

A geodetic network which spans the region between San Francisco and Lake Tahoe has been measured 5 times completely with triangulation in 1880, 1922, 1929, 1943, 1963. A resurvey with the Global Positioning System (GPS) in 1991 allows the formation of 1 coseismic and 4 interseismic epochs. The data from this network provide a unique opportunity to examine the temporal and spatial evolution of the strain field associated with the 1906 San Francisco earthquake in particular and with the Pacific-North American plate boundary in general. Calculations of strain rate from the network data lead to the following conclusions. (1) There is no resolvable (greater than 0.05 microradians/yr) strain in between Sutter Buttes and the Sierra Nevada. (2) Throughout the time since the 1906 earthquake, a region extending at least as far east as the westernmost Great Valley has been undergoing deformation related to Pac:Nam interaction and the associated earthquake cycle. (3) In the time and space of overlap, our results agree with those from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) trilateration data. Both data sets indicate that strain must be accumulating to the east of Vaca. (4) The San Andreas discrepancy cannot be accommodated in the Great Valley at the 1 sigma level of our results. It is possible to absorb it in that region at the 2 sigma level. (5) Strain rate is elevated in the years following the earthquake and decays slowly with time. It is possible that the rate in the Coast Ranges increases until around 1950 and then decays. With the exception of one epoch, strain rate in the Coast Ranges is consistently fault parallel, shows no sign changes, and is consistent with monotonic strain accumulation.

Beavan, John↗

Investigation of computational and spectral analysis methods for aeroacoustic wave propagation

Most computational fluid dynamics (CFD) schemes are not adequately accurate for solving aeroacoustics problems, which have wave amplitudes several orders of magnitude smaller yet with frequencies larger than the flow field variations generating the sound. Hence, a computational aeroacoustics (CAA) algorithm should have minimal dispersion and dissipation features. A dispersion relation preserving (DRP) scheme is, therefore, applied to solve the linearized Euler equations in order to simulate the propagation of three types of waves, namely: acoustic, vorticity, and entropy waves. The scheme is derived using an optimization procedure to ensure that the numerical derivatives preserve the wave number and angular frequency of the partial differential equations being discretized. Consequently, simulated waves propagate with the correct wave speeds and exhibit their appropriate properties. A set of radiation and outflow boundary conditions, compatible with the DRP scheme and derived from the asymptotic solutions of the governing equations, are also implemented. Numerical simulations are performed to test the effectiveness of the DRP scheme and its boundary conditions. The computed solutions are shown to agree favorably with the exact solutions. The major restriction appears to be that the dispersion relations can be preserved only for waves with wave lengths longer than four or five spacings. The boundary conditions are found to be transparent to the outgoing disturbances. However, when the disturbance source is placed closer to a boundary, small acoustic reflections start appearing. CAA generates enormous amounts of temporal data which needs to be reduced to understand the physical problem being simulated. Spectral analysis is one approach that helps us in extracting information which often can not be easily interpreted in the time domain. Thus, three different methods for the spectral analysis of numerically generated aeroacoustic data are studied. First, the capabilities of two traditional methods for spectral analysis, namely, the Blackman-Tukey method and periodogram method, are compared in estimating the spectra of a simple-periodic process. The periodogram is then applied to analyze transitory-deterministic processes. Finally, these two methods are compared with a more recent method, referred as the Weighted-Overlapped-Segment-Averaging (WOSA) method, in estimating the spectra of a chaotic (random-like) process. From the demonstrative case for the spectral analyses of data generated by simple-periodic process, the periodogram method is found to give a better estimate of the steep-sloped spectra than the Blackman-Tukey method. Also, for this problem, the Hanning window is found to perform better with the periodogram method than with the Blackman-Tukey method. Finally, for the spectral analysis of data generated by the chaotic process, the periodogram method does not perform well, whereas, the WOSA and Blackman-Tukey methods give equivalently good results.

Vanel, Florence O.↗

Linking Improvements in Sulfur Dioxide Emissions to Decreasing Sulfate Wet Deposition by Combining Satellite and Surface Observations with Trajectory Analysis

Sulfur dioxide (SO2), a criteria pollutant, and sulfate (SO42) deposition are major environmental concerns in the eastern U.S. and both have been on the decline for two decades. In this study, we use satellite column SO2 data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and SO42 wet deposition data from the NADP (National Atmospheric Deposition Program) to investigate the temporal and spatial relationship between trends in SO2 emissions and the downward sulfate wet deposition over the eastern U.S. from 2005 to 2015. To establish the relationship between SO2 emission sources and receptor sites, we conducted a Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analysis using HYSPLIT back trajectories for five selected Air Quality System (AQS) sites - (Hackney, OH, Akron, OH, South Fayette, PA, Wilmington, DE, and Beltsville, MD) - in close proximity to NADP sites with large downward SO42 trends since 2005. Back trajectories were run for three summers (JJA) and three winters (DJF) and used to generate seasonal climatology PSCFs for each site. The OMI SO2 and interpolated NADP sulfate deposition trends were normalized and overlapped with the PSCF, to identify the areas that had the highest contribution to the observed drop. The results suggest that emission reductions along the Ohio River Valley have led to decreases in sulfate deposition in eastern OH and western PA (Hackney, Akron and South Fayette). Farther to the east, emission reductions in southeast PA resulted in improvements in sulfate deposition at Wilmington, DE, while for Beltsville, reductions in both the Ohio River Valley and nearby favorably impacted sulfate deposition. For Beltsville, sources closer than 300km from the site contribute roughly 56% observed deposition trends in winter, and 82% in summer, reflecting seasonal changes in transport pattern as well as faster oxidation and washout of sulfur in summer. This suggests that emissions and wet deposition are linked through not only the location of sources relative to the observing sites, but also to photochemistry and the weather patterns characteristic to the region, as evidenced by a west to east shift in the contribution between winter and summer. The method developed here is applicable to other regions with significant trends such as China and India, and can be used to estimate the potential benefits of emission reduction in those areas.

Acid depostion↗

Linking Improvements in Sulfur Dioxide Emissions to Decreasing Sulfate Wet Deposition By Combining Satellite and Surface Observations With Trajectory Analysis

Sulfur dioxide (SO2), a criteria pollutant, and sulfate (SO42−) deposition are major environmental concerns in the eastern U.S. and both have been on the decline for two decades. In this study, we use satellite column SO2 data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and SO42− wet deposition data from the NADP (National Atmospheric Deposition Program) to investigate the temporal and spatial relationship between trends in SO2 emissions and the downward sulfate wet deposition over the eastern U.S. from 2005 to 2015. To establish the relationship between SO2 emission sources and receptor sites, we conducted a Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analysis using HYSPLIT back trajectories for five selected Air Quality System (AQS) sites - (Hackney, OH, Akron, OH, South Fayette, PA, Wilmington, DE, and Beltsville, MD) - in close proximity to NADP sites with large downward SO42− trends since 2005. Back trajectories were run for three summers (JJA) and three winters (DJF) and used to generate seasonal climatology PSCFs for each site. The OMI SO2 and interpolated NADP sulfate deposition trends were normalized and overlapped with the PSCF, to identify the areas that had the highest contribution to the observed drop. The results suggest that emission reductions along the Ohio River Valley have led to decreases in sulfate deposition in eastern OH and western PA (Hackney, Akron and South Fayette). Farther to the east, emission reductions in southeast PA resulted in improvements in sulfate deposition at Wilmington, DE, while for Beltsville, reductions in both the Ohio River Valley and nearby favorably impacted sulfate deposition. For Beltsville, sources closer than 300 km from the site contribute roughly 56% observed deposition trends in winter, and 82% in summer, reflecting seasonal changes in transport pattern as well as faster oxidation and washout of sulfur in summer. This suggests that emissions and wet deposition are linked through not only the location of sources relative to the observing sites, but also to photochemistry and the weather patterns characteristic to the region, as evidenced by a west to east shift in the contribution between winter and summer. The method developed here is applicable to other regions with significant trends such as China and India, and can be used to estimate the potential benefits of emission reduction in those areas.

sulfur dioxide emissions↗

Spatial and temporal relations between coronae and extensional belts, northern Lada Terra, Venus

Preliminary studies of the distribution of coronae and volcanic rises on Venus show that many of these features tend to cluster along zones of rifting and extension. The plains north of Lada Terra are crossed by two such extensional belts. Each belt is composed of grabens, ridges, faults, volcanic flows, coronae and coronalike features. The longer and more prominent belt is the NW trending Alpha-Lada extensional belt, which is over 6000 km long and 50-200 km wide, and includes the coronae Eve, Tamfana, Carpo, Selu, Derceto, Otygen, and an unnamed corona south of Otygen. The second belt is the NNE trending Derceto-Quetzalpetlatl extensional belt, which is about 2000 km long and in places over 300 km wide, and includes the coronae Sarpanitum, Eithinoha, and Quetzalpetlatl. The two belts intersect at the 1600 x 600 km wide Derceto volcanic plateau. It is apparent that deformation along the two belts overlapped in time, though deformation along the Alpha-Lada extensional belt probably continued after the deformation along the Derceto-Quetzalpetlatl extensional belt terminated. In certain areas, volcanism originated in grabens within the extensional belts, whereas in other areas, such as in Eve, Selu, Derceto, and Quetzalpetlatl, volcanism originated in the coronae and flowed into the lower parts of the extensional belts. Regional extension has affected the evolution of all the coronae at some stage of their development. Regional deformation occurred before the initiation of Derceto and Eithinoha of their development. Regional deformation occurred before the initiation of Derceto and Eithinoha and after the initiation of Carpo, Tamfana, Otygen, and Sarpanitum. It is thus unlikely that coronae formation along the belts is solely a consequence of the regional extension, and it is also unlikely that regional extension has been caused solely by the coronae. No corona along the belts was formed subsequent to the cessation of the regional extension. We therefore suggest that the regional extension and the coronae are interrelated. Some of the coronae may have determined the location of the surface expression of the regional extension, whereas the locations of other coronae may have been influenced by the concentration of regional extensional stresses.

Baer, Gidon↗

Diagnosing Aircraft Icing Potential from Satellite Cloud Retrievals

The threat for aircraft icing in clouds is a significant hazard that routinely impacts aviation operations. Accurate diagnoses and forecasts of aircraft icing conditions requires identifying the location and vertical distribution of clouds with super-cooled liquid water (SLW) droplets, as well as the characteristics of the droplet size distribution. Traditional forecasting methods rely on guidance from numerical models and conventional observations, neither of which currently resolve cloud properties adequately on the optimal scales needed for aviation. Satellite imagers provide measurements over large areas with high spatial resolution that can be interpreted to identify the locations and characteristics of clouds, including features associated with adverse weather and storms. This paper describes new techniques for interpreting cloud products derived from satellite data to infer the flight icing threat to aircraft. For unobscured low clouds, the icing threat is determined using empirical relationships developed from correlations between satellite imager retrievals of liquid water path and droplet size with icing conditions reported by pilots (PIREPS). For deep ice over water cloud systems, ice and liquid water content (IWC and LWC) profiles are derived by using the imager cloud properties to constrain climatological information on cloud vertical structure and water phase obtained apriori from radar and lidar observations, and from cloud model analyses. Retrievals of the SLW content embedded within overlapping clouds are mapped to the icing threat using guidance from an airfoil modeling study. Compared to PIREPS and ground-based icing remote sensing datasets, the satellite icing detection and intensity accuracies are approximately 90% and 70%, respectively, and found to be similar for both low level and deep ice over water cloud systems. The satellite-derived icing boundaries capture the reported altitudes over 90% of the time. Satellite analyses corresponding to the time and location of several recent aviation accidents and with icing PIREPS are also presented that reveal skill in identifying severe icing conditions. These results demonstrate the utility of satellite cloud retrievals for quantitatively diagnosing the potential for icing conditions on temporal and spatial scales that should be useful to the aviation community. Plans are being developed to deliver these new satellite products to the GOES-R Proving Ground in the near future so that they can be evaluated in operational applications.

Smith, William L., Jr.↗

NASA Surface Radiation Budget Project: A Look Back and A Look Forward

The NASA Langley Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project, historically associated with GEWEX, has provided estimates of surface and TOA shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes using International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) cloud properties and radiances as primary input. The first release was in 1995 (Whitlock et al., 1995) at daily 2.5° resolution. Subsequent releases have improved physics, temporal and spatial resolution, as well as increasing the total length of the time series. Release 4 in 2019 (Kummerow et al., 2019) is on a 1° nested grid, with temporal resolutions from 3-hourly to daily and monthly. It originally spanned from July 1983 to December 2017 and has since been extended through 2019. Release 4 uses the ISCCP H series of data, a complete reprocessing which retains more pixels than the previous D series, used in prior SRB versions. SRB data has been used extensively by a wide range of customers, including but not limited to the solar energy community, climate modelers, architects, oceanographers, and the agricultural community. It is an especial feature of SRB that global radiation budget data are available from the 1983 through 2000 period, which is prior to CERES providing alternate data, and then 2000 through near present to provide overlap coverage. Here we use the 36.5 year record of SRB Release 4 to examine the changes in shortwave and longwave fluxes over the period, including the changes in different regions of the globe. We examine energy budget features such as hemispheric symmetry and implied meridional transport of energy. We look at the variability of these features prior to and during the CERES period and compare to later products. We also look at Release 5, currently under development. This version will provide 0.5° resolution. In addition to surface and TOA radiative fluxes it will include fluxes at several atmospheric layers, and some spectral features beyond the broadband shortwave and longwave fluxes in Release 4 and prior. The shortwave algorithm is undergoing a complete change from the Pinker-Laszlo algorithm. Shortwave fluxes will now be calculated from a forward call to the Fu-Liou radiative transfer model as modified by the CERES team (Rose et al., 2006). Input datasets are being improved, including surface properties, atmospheric profiles of temperature and humidity, aerosols, and total solar irradiance. Preliminary results from Release 5 and comparisons to Release 4 will be shown.

Earth Radiation Budget↗

Novel Image Processing Interface to Relate DSB Spatial Distribution from Immunofluorescence Foci Experiments to the State-of-the-Art Models of DNA Breakage

A recently developed software (NASARadiationTrackImage) allows a quick and automatic segmentation of foci that indicate spatial localization of specific proteins that are visualized by immunofluorescence. Of interest are the spatial and temporal distribution of foci such as gammaH2AX, a signal of the phosphorylation of a variant of the histone H2A that has been shown to correspond to DSBs, or proteins involved in DSB processing, such as ATM, Rad51, and p53, following exposures of human cells to high charge and energy (HZE) ion irradiation. Experimental data are recorded as sets of two-dimensional images in color with cells and foci of gammaH2AX, ATM, Rad51 or others shown. Different cells, levels of radiation and timing after radiation were recorded. The software allows us to calculate the number of foci per cell, overall intensity of light in foci and their spatial organization. A simple statistical model allows for testing of foci overlap (eclipse). A more complex statistical model previously known as DNAbreak simulates track structure and random chromosome geometry. It has one adjustable parameter corresponding to an average intensity of DSB creation in cubic micrometers of DNA volume per particle track or unit dose. Its limitation is the low-resolution limit both in physical space and DSB's along DNA. It works adequately on the scale of a cell and provides further insights on how the geometry of tracks and DNA affects genomic damage of the cell and subsequent repair. Future developments of the model for the description of the time evolution of DNA damage response proteins, and more robust track structure models will be discussed.

Ponomarev, A. L.↗

Automated Tracking of Shallow Maritime Clouds on Geostationary Imagery to Extract Lifecycle Characteristics

Shallow moist convection is ubiquitous throughout the tropics and represents a key player in boundary layer processes. Satellites have provided many statistics on shallow clouds, such as size, structure, and geographical coverage, from static views of recurring cloud fields. But determining why certain cloud features appear and persist for different periods requires a time-evolving view of their behaviors. Geostationary satellites provide a unique opportunity to follow the time evolution of individual convective features, given their enhanced spatial and temporal sampling. A cloud-tracking tool was developed to identify properties of cloud lifecycle from the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2EX) field campaign of 2019. The mission conducted intensive sampling of shallow cumulus in the West Pacific Ocean, in tandem with Rapid Scan imagery from the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on the Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA) Himawari-8 satellite. Shallow cumulus was segmented according to thresholds in 0.5-km visible reflectance and with blurring techniques. Despite being limited to daytime hours, the segmentations yielded the best resolution possible for capturing cloud initiation and decay. The tracking procedure is based on a computer vision package that includes Kalman filters for motion prediction, object overlap search, and the Hungarian (or Kuhn-Munkres) matching algorithm for track designation. AHI radiances available within the tracked cloud boundaries are assembled to form individual spectral histories. The resulting catalog provides thousands of cloud histories for domains measuring only a few degrees in latitude and longitude. We present an overview of the cloud-tracking tool, strategies to identify development stages from cloud tracks, and preliminary results that document cumulus lifecycle properties from satellite. The application of AHI 0.5-km reflectance has both strengths and limitations when attempting to track lifecycles of the smallest resolvable clouds. We show that by aggregating cloud tracks from a few case studies of CAMP2EX, we can discern differences in cloud lifetime and development according to ensembles selected from areas of interest. The results demonstrate an ability to quantify lifetimes and assess rates of change in cloud characteristics that are likely controlled by the surrounding environment and meteorology.

Cloud Tracking↗

Linking Individual Variation in Movement Behavior to Infection Dynamics in Highly Mobile Species

Animal movements are linked to infectious disease dynamics in wildlife through multiple mechanisms across various spatial and temporal scales. For example, infections can impede the movement of infected individuals, but infected hosts can also disperse infectious agents as they move. Individuals inevitably vary in their responses to infections and their roles in determining infection dynamics, which means that considering variation among individuals – whether across species, across time, or within populations – is important for understanding movement-disease relationships and their implications for epidemiology. Here, I draw on studies from multiple systems to examine how variation in movement behavior links to infectious disease epidemiology. For example, a comparative study of habitat selection across multiple waterfowl species highlights that diel behavioral patterns, rather than individual or seasonal variation, is the most important driver of the risk of overlap between waterfowl and poultry farms, and therefore for the risk of avian influenza spillover. Together, these studies show that individual traits interact with the environment to influence the roles of individuals for infectious disease ecology.

Claire Stewart Teitelbaum↗

Automated Tracking of Shallow Maritime Clouds on Geostationary Imagery to Extract Lifecycle Characteristics

Shallow moist convection is ubiquitous throughout the tropics and represents a key player in boundary layer processes. Satellites have provided valuable insight on shallow clouds, such as size, structure, and geographical coverage, from static views of recurring cloud fields. But determining why certain cloud features appear and persist for different periods requires a time-evolving view of their behaviors. Geostationary satellites provide a unique opportunity to follow the time evolution of individual convective features, given their enhanced spatial and temporal sampling. A cloud-tracking tool was developed to identify properties of cloud lifecycle from the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2EX) field campaign of 2019. The mission conducted intensive sampling of shallow cumulus in the West Pacific Ocean, in tandem with Rapid Scan imagery from the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on the Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA) Himawari-8 satellite. Shallow cumulus were segmented according to thresholds in 0.5-km visible reflectance and with blurring techniques. Despite being limited to daytime hours, the segmentations yielded the best resolution available for capturing cloud initiation, growth, and decay. The tracking procedure is based on a computer vision package that includes Kalman filters for motion prediction, object overlap search, and the Hungarian (or Kuhn-Munkres) matching algorithm for track designation. AHI radiances available within the tracked cloud boundaries are assembled to form individual spectral histories. The resulting catalog provides thousands of cloud histories for domains measuring only a few degrees in latitude and longitude. We present an overview of the cloud-tracking tool and its results for cloud fields sampled throughout CAMP2EX by the airborne P-3. Cloud tracks were selected from about 10 flights to form ensembles, specific groups of tracks occurring in a region with airborne sampling. Cloud lifecycle properties, including duration and maximum area, are calculated for all ensemble members, and analyzed for cloud behavior and P-3 coincidences. By following this strategy, we quantitatively assess the degree of airborne sampling for specific cloud classes defined by the lifecycle calculations. We can summarize which cloud classes had more sampling, the stage of development during sampling, and general differences in character (e.g., isolated congestus vs. cold-pool producer).

Cloud Tracking↗

Confidence-Based Buffer for Strategic Deconfliction with Probabilistic Operational Intent

This paper presents a methodology to expand the 95% confidence level of the elliptical geometry given by Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) operators planning to fly Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) to any confidence level before being fed to the strategic deconfliction (SD) module, effectively increasing the separation buffer between Operational Intents (OIs). To assess the performance of this approach, it is integrated within an adaptation of the Rolling Horizon with K-Position Search volume-based strategic deconfliction approach, previously developed at NASA Ames, preventing the 4D overlapping of OIs shaped by ellipses instead of traditional blocks. Safety and efficiency metrics are evaluated through the deconfliction of four simulated package delivery route network structures across the San Francisco Metropolitan Area with increasing numbers of crossing waypoints (network complexity). Safety assessment entails the in-house creation of a metric to quantify collision occurrences per flight hour based on the frequency at which the probabilistic operational volume segments are sampled, whereas efficiency is measured using ground delay. Results indicate that the largest buffer growth occurs when increasing the confidence level beyond 99.9% and demonstrate the negative impact of network complexity on both metrics, regardless of the OI geometry. Further, the ellipse-based SD adaptation more accurately estimates temporal separation at crossings, allowing deconflicted vehicles to be closer together. It is concluded that the proposed methodology enables the desired confidence level to serve as an effective controller of buffer size.

strategic deconfliction↗

Confidence-Based Buffer for Strategic Deconfliction with Probabilistic Operational Intent

This paper presents a methodology to expand the 95% confidence level of the elliptical geometry given by Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) operators planning to fly Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) to any confidence level before being fed to the strategic deconfliction (SD) module, effectively increasing the separation buffer between Operational Intents (OIs). To assess the performance of this approach, it is integrated within an adaptation of the Rolling Horizon with K-Position Search volume-based strategic deconfliction approach, previously developed at NASA Ames, preventing the 4D overlapping of OIs shaped by ellipses instead of traditional blocks. Safety and efficiency metrics are evaluated through the deconfliction of four simulated package delivery route network structures across the San Francisco Metropolitan Area with increasing numbers of crossing waypoints (network complexity). Safety assessment entails the in-house creation of a metric to quantify collision occurrences per flight hour based on the frequency at which the probabilistic operational volume segments are sampled, whereas efficiency is measured using ground delay. Results indicate that the largest buffer growth occurs when increasing the confidence level beyond 99.9% and demonstrate the negative impact of network complexity on both metrics, regardless of the OI geometry. Further, the ellipse-based SD adaptation more accurately estimates temporal separation at crossings, allowing deconflicted vehicles to be closer together. It is concluded that the proposed methodology enables the desired confidence level to serve as an effective controller of buffer size.

safety↗

The Next Generation Marshall Grazing Incidence X-Ray Spectrometer (MaGIXS) Sounding Rocket Experiments

The Marshall Grazing Incidence X-ray Spectrometer (MaGIXS) is a sounding rocket experiment that carries an X-ray slitless imaging spectrograph to observe spectrally dispersed soft X-ray (SXR) images of the solar corona over a wide field-of-view. The first flight of MaGIXS occurred on 30 July 2021, during which several emission lines from coronal structures including X-ray bright points were observed. Analysis of MaGIXS-1 data demonstrated the application of new inversion techniques and opened a new arena of inverting complex spectroheliogram data, which has spatial-spectral information overlapped. The second flight of MaGIXS, with a simplified optical design, is scheduled for 2024. The goal of MaGIXS-2 is to observe high temperature diagnostic emission lines within an active region core. MaGIXS-1 discovered dominant missing emission lines near 15Å wavelength region, which hosts several closely spaced satellite lines of Fe XVII, Fe XVI, and Fe XV ions, arising from relatively cool plasma that peaks near 2MK. These lines are expected to be enhanced at lower temperatures and offers one of the most unique diagnostics to measure electron temperature, as well as signatures of equilibrium state of the plasma in active regions, which has not been studied so far. The science goal of the third sounding rocket flight of MaGIXS is to determine coronal heating parameters, such as the spatial and temporal properties of coronal heating events, by measuring discriminating observations, such as electron temperature, effective temperature, density, abundance, and departures from thermal equilibrium of the plasma, by observing the Sun in the SXR wavelength range. For this, the MaGIXS instrument will be upgraded with a new X-ray telescope mirror that will provide higher spatial and spectral resolution and throughput, allowing for spectral lines to be observed at the relevant spatial and temporal scales. In addition, MaGIXS-3 will also carry The Resolving Inversion Context X-ray Spectrometer (TRICXS), a high dispersion Bragg crystal spectrometer to spectrally resolve the lines near 15Å, critical to unlock the full diagnostic potential of this wavelength range. Here we will present the preliminary concept design of MaGIXS-3 and discuss the potential observations.

X-ray Imaging↗

Separating Spatial and Temporal Variations of the Aurora Using Two Nearly Colocated Satellites

This final report describes the efforts accomplished during the grant's period of performance, covering the period of 1 May 1997 to 30 April 2001, of a NASA Supporting Research and Technology Program grant under the Ionospheric, Thermospheric, and Mesospheric Physics component of the Sun-Earth Connections program. We have met and exceeded the goals set forth in the proposed research objectives. Referred publications have appeared in the scientific literature and several others are in the review process. In addition, numerous invited and contributed presentations of these studies were presented at national and international meetings during the performance period. One graduate student completed his PhD and won two AGU Best Student Paper awards based on research funded by this grant. These studies are summarized below. The science goal delineated in the initial proposal was "to systematically explore the temporal and spatial characteristics of the aurora in a way heretofore impossible, using data from two coplanar DMSP spacecraft." We accomplished this goal through a series of related studies. One study used these unique data to establish the role of Ps6 waves in coupling between the magnetosphere and the auroral ionosphere (omega bands) during the recovery phase of a magnetic storm; the published paper demonstrated the causal relationships between geospace processes occurring in different regions and established a simple conceptual model based on the fortuitous constellation of observations. In the second string of papers, we used these data to explore velocity-dispersed ions (VDIS) in and near the cusp, to test region identification models, and to look at space/time structure of auroral precipitation. On the first topic, the unique DMSP data revealed a remarkable double VDIS with a latitudinal overlap. This could only be explained in terms of a unified reconnection geometry that builds on several earlier unrelated models. The paper outlining this discovery has drawn considerable attention from the community and is currently in press - it adds significantly to the debate over whether reconnection is study state versus bursty and patchy versus global. The second paper develops the model further by incorporating the electron signature - these ionospheric particle precipitation signatures reveal the presence of magnetospheric "fossilized" FTEs, demonstrating the power of ionospheric measurements as a remote diagnostic of magnetospheric processes. Finally, the general nature of aurora] stability and coherence and region identification by particle characteristics were fully explored in a final paper. We identify candidate mechanisms controlling coherence time scales and length scales and refine boundary region identification criteria. We also use the dual-DMSP observations to identify the open and closed LLBL region and related its significance to the generalized bursty, multiple x-line model developed in the first paper. All of these topics are chapters of Dr. Boudouridis' recently completed PhD thesis.

Spence, Harlan E.↗

High-resolution observations of the Evershed effect in sunspots

High spatial resolution movies of sunspots taken at the Swedish Solar Observatory on La Palma reveal that the Evershed effect is time dependent. Outward proper motions are visible in both the continuum and Dopplergrams. These can be tracked over most of the width of the penumbra and overlap regions that show inward moving penubral grains. The radial spacing between the moving structures is about 2000 km, and they exhibit irregular repetitive behavior with a typical interval of 10 minutes. These are probably the cause of 10 minutes oscillations sometimes seen in a penumbral power spectra. Higher velocities are spatially correlated with the relatively darker regions between bright filaments. Regions with a strong variation in the Doppler signal show peak-to-peak modulations of 1 km/s on an average velocity of about 3-4 km/s. The proper motion velocity is approximately constant from the iner penumbra and generally larger than the Doppler velocity when both are interpreted as projections of horizontal motion. Regions where thay are consistent suggest a typical horizontal velocity of 3.5 km/s. Some proper motion velocites as high as 7 km/s are seen, but these are less certain. The temporal behavoir shows a correlation between increased Doppler signal and increased continuum intensity, the opposite of the spatial correlation. When spatially averaged across filaments and over time, the averaged Evershed effect has a peak horizontal component near the outer edge of the penumbra of 2.0 km/s with evidence for a 200-400 m/s upward component. The latter depends on an uncertain absolute velocity calibration. If real it could be an actual upward component or a penumbral analogue of the convective blueshift seen in the quiet Sun.

Shine, R. A.↗

The ENSO Effect on the Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Global Lightning Activity

The recently reprocessed (1997-2006) OTD/LIS database is used to investigate the global lightning climatology in response to the ENSO cycle. A linear correlation map between lightning anomalies and ENSO (NINO3.4) identifies areas that generally follow patterns similar to precipitation anomalies. We also observed areas where significant lightning/ENSO correlations are found and are not accompanied of significant precipitation/ENSO correlations. An extreme case of the strong decoupling between lightning and precipitation is observed over the Indonesian peninsula (Sumatra) where positive lightning/NINO3.4 correlations are collocated with negative precipitation/NINO3.4 correlations. Evidence of linear relationships between the spatial extent of thunderstorm distribution and the respective NINO3.4 magnitude are presented for different regions on the Earth. Strong coupling is found over areas remote to the main ENSO axis of influence and both during warm and cold ENSO phases. Most of the resulted relationships agree with the tendencies of precipitation related to ENSO empirical maps or documented teleconnection patterns. Over the Australian continent, opposite behavior in terms of thunderstorm activity is noted for warm ENSO phases with NINO3.4 magnitudes with NINO3.4>+l.08 and 0<NqNO3.4<I.08. Finally, we investigate the spatial distribution of areas that consistently portrayed enhanced lightning activity during the main warm/cold (El Nino/La Nina) ENSO episodes of the past decade. The observed patterns show no spatial overlapping and identify areas that in their majority are in agreement with empirical precipitation/ENSO maps. The areas that appear during the warm ENSO phase are found over regions that have been identified as anomalous Hadley circulation ENSO-related patterns. The areas that appear during the cold ENSO phase are found predominantly around the west hemisphere equatorial belt and are in their majority identified by anomalous Walker circulation.

Chronis, Themis G.↗