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At least 127 records · Page 7

Changes in Future Precipitation Mean and Variability across Scales

Changes in precipitation variability can have large societal consequences, whether at the short time scales of flash floods or the longer time scales of multiyear droughts. Recent studies have suggested that in future climate projections, precipitation variability rises more steeply than does its mean, leading to concerns about societal impacts. Here we evaluate changes in mean precipitation over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales using a range of models from high-resolution regional simulations to millennial-scale global simulations. Results show that changes depend on the scale of aggregation and involve strong regional differences. On local scales that resolve individual rainfall events (hours and tens of kilometers), changes in precipitation distributions are complex and variances rise substantially more than means, as is required given the well-known disproportionate rise in precipitation intensity. On scales that aggregate across many events, distributional changes become simpler and variability changes smaller. At regional scale, future precipitation distributions can be largely reproduced by a simple transformation of present-day precipitation involving a multiplicative shift and a small additive term. The “extra” broadening is negatively correlated with changes in mean precipitation: in strongly “wetting” areas, distributions broaden less than expected from a simple multiplicative mean change; in “drying” areas, distributions narrow less. Precipitation variability changes are therefore of especial concern in the subtropics, which tend to dry under climate change. Outside the tropics, variability changes are similar on time scales from days to decades (i.e., show little frequency dependence). This behavior is highly robust across models, suggesting it may stem from some fundamental constraint.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reduced Sediment Settling in Turbulent Flows Due To Basset History and Virtual Mass Effects

The behavior of suspended particles in turbulent flows is a recalcitrant problem spanning wide-ranging fields including geomorphology, hydrology, and dispersion of particulate matter in the atmosphere. One key mechanism underlying particle suspension is the difference between particle settling velocity (w s ) in turbulence and its still water counterpart (w so ). This difference is explored here for a range of particle-to-fluid densities (1 – 10) and particle diameter to Kolmogorov micro-eddy sizes (0.1 – 10). Conventional models of particle fluxes that equate w s to w so result in eddy diffusivities and turbulent Schmidt numbers contradictory to laboratory experiments. Incorporating virtual mass and Basset history forces resolves these inconsistencies, providing clarity as to why w s /w so is sub-unity for the aforementioned conditions. The proposed formulation can be imminently used to model particle settling in turbulence, especially when sediment distribution outcomes over extended time scales far surpassing turbulence time scales are sought.

Geology↗

Attosecond intra-valence band dynamics and resonant-photoemission delays in W(110)

Time-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy with attosecond precision provides new insights into the photoelectric effect and gives information about the timing of photoemission from different electronic states within the electronic band structure of solids. Electron transport, scattering phenomena and electron-electron correlation effects can be observed on attosecond time scales by timing photoemission from valence band states against that from core states. However, accessing intraband effects was so far particularly challenging due to the simultaneous requirements on energy, momentum and time resolution. Here we report on an experiment utilizing intracavity generated attosecond pulse trains to meet these demands at high flux and high photon energies to measure intraband delays between sp- and d- band states in the valence band photoemission from tungsten and investigate final-state effects in resonant photoemission.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Cross-correlation analysis of X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy to extract rotational diffusion coefficients

Coefficients for translational and rotational diffusion characterize the Brownian motion of particles. Emerging X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) experiments probe a broad range of length scales and time scales and are well-suited for investigation of Brownian motion. While methods for estimating the translational diffusion coefficients from XPCS are well-developed, there are no algorithms for measuring the rotational diffusion coefficients based on XPCS, even though the required raw data are accessible from such experiments. In this paper, we propose angular-temporal cross-correlation analysis of XPCS data and show that this information can be used to design a numerical algorithm (Multi-Tiered Estimation for Correlation Spectroscopy [MTECS]) for predicting the rotational diffusion coefficient utilizing the cross-correlation: This approach is applicable to other wavelengths beyond this regime. We verify the accuracy of this algorithmic approach across a range of simulated data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The QBO–MJO Connection: A Possible Role for the SST and ENSO

We examine the hypothesis that the observed connection between the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the strength of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is modulated by the sea surface temperature (SST)—for example, by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A composite analysis shows that, globally, La Niña SSTs are remarkably similar to those that occur during the easterly phase of the QBO. A maximum covariance analysis suggests that MJO power and SST are strongly linked on both the ENSO time scale and the QBO time scale. We analyze simulations with a modified configuration of version 2 of the Community Earth System Model, with a high top and fine vertical resolution. The model is able to simulate ENSO, the QBO, and the MJO. The ocean-coupled version of the model simulates the QBO, ENSO, and MJO, but does not simulate the observed QBO–MJO connection. When driven with prescribed observed SST anomalies based on composites for QBO east and QBO west (QBOE and QBOW), however, the same atmospheric model produces a modest enhancement of MJO power during QBOE relative to QBOW, as observed. We explore the possibility that the SST anomalies are forced by the QBO itself. Indeed, composite Hovmöller diagrams based on observations show the propagation of QBO zonal wind anomalies all the way from the upper stratosphere to the surface. Also, subsurface ocean temperature composites reveal a similarity between the western Pacific and Indian Ocean subsurface signal between La Niña and QBOE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Automated Symbolic Upscaling: 1. Model Generation for Extended Applicability Regimes

Abstract In porous media theory, upscaling techniques are fundamental to deriving rigorous Darcy‐scale models for flow and reactive transport in subsurface systems. Due to limitations in classical techniques, a number of ad hoc approaches have been proposed to address physical regimes in which reactive time scales are similar to, or faster than, diffusive time scales. In Part 1 of this two part series, we present a strategy for expanding the applicability of classical homogenization theory by generalizing the assumed closure form. We detail the implementation of this strategy on two reactive mass transport problems with moderately reactive physics. The strategy produces nontrivial homogenized models with emergent terms and effective parameters that couple reactive, diffusive, and advective transport. The differences in equation forms between the macroscopic and pore‐scale descriptions advise caution to further studies where the forms of macroscopic equations are assumed, as opposed to rigorously derived. Numerical validation is provided for each problem to show that the error estimates of homogenization theory are satisfied, and to justify the implemented strategy. In Part 2, the presented strategy is automated using symbolic computing to expedite its implementation.

Pietrzyk, Kyle↗

Entanglement and correlations in fast collective neutrino flavor oscillations

Collective neutrino oscillations play a crucial role in transporting lepton flavor in astrophysical settings like supernovae and neutron star binary merger remnants, which are characterized by large neutrino densities. In these settings, simulations in the mean-field approximation show that neutrino-neutrino interactions can overtake vacuum oscillations and give rise to fast collective flavor evolution on time-scales t ∝ μ –1 , with μ proportional to the local neutrino density. In this work, we study the full out-of-equilibrium flavor dynamics in simple multi-angle geometries displaying fast oscillations in the mean field linear stability analysis. Focusing on simple initial conditions, we analyze the production of pair correlations and entanglement in the complete many-body-dynamics as a function of the number N of neutrinos in the system, for up to thousands of neutrinos. Similarly to simpler geometries with only two neutrino beams, we identify three regimes: stable configurations with vanishing flavor oscillations, marginally unstable configurations with evolution occurring on long time scales τ ≈ µ –1 $\sqrt{N}$, and unstable configurations showing flavor evolution on short time scales τ ≈ μ –1 log(N). Here, we present evidence that these fast collective modes are generated by the same dynamical phase transition which leads to the slow bipolar oscillations, establishing a connection between these two phenomena and explaining the difference in their time scales. We conclude by discussing a semi-classical approximation which reproduces the entanglement entropy at short to medium time scales and can be potentially useful in situations with more complicated geometries where classical simulation methods starts to become inefficient.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Optical variability of quasars with 20-yr photometric light curves

ABSTRACT We study the optical gri photometric variability of a sample of 190 quasars within the SDSS Stripe 82 region that have long-term photometric coverage during ∼1998−2020 with SDSS, PanSTARRS-1, the Dark Energy Survey, and dedicated follow-up monitoring with Blanco 4m/DECam. With on average ∼200 nightly epochs per quasar per filter band, we improve the parameter constraints from a Damped Random Walk (DRW) model fit to the light curves over previous studies with 10–15 yr baselines and ≲ 100 epochs. We find that the average damping time-scale τDRW continues to rise with increased baseline, reaching a median value of ∼750 d (g band) in the rest frame of these quasars using the 20-yr light curves. Some quasars may have gradual, long-term trends in their light curves, suggesting that either the DRW fit requires very long baselines to converge, or that the underlying variability is more complex than a single DRW process for these quasars. Using a subset of quasars with better-constrained τDRW (less than 20 per cent of the baseline), we confirm a weak wavelength dependence of τDRW∝λ0.51 ± 0.20. We further quantify optical variability of these quasars over days to decades time-scales using structure function (SF) and power spectrum density (PSD) analyses. The SF and PSD measurements qualitatively confirm the measured (hundreds of days) damping time-scales from the DRW fits. However, the ensemble PSD is steeper than that of a DRW on time-scales less than ∼ a month for these luminous quasars, and this second break point correlates with the longer DRW damping time-scale.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

On the relation between active-region lifetimes and the autocorrelation function of light curves

ABSTRACT Rotational modulation of stellar light curves due to dark spots encloses information on spot properties and, thus, on magnetic activity. In particular, the decay of the autocorrelation function (ACF) of light curves is presumed to be linked to spot/active-region lifetimes, given that some coherence of the signal is expected throughout their lifetime. In the literature, an exponential decay has been adopted to describe the ACF. Here, we investigate the relation between the ACF and the active-region lifetimes. For this purpose, we produce artificial light curves of rotating spotted stars with different observation, stellar, and spot properties. We find that a linear decay and respective time-scale better represent the ACF than the exponential decay. We therefore adopt a linear decay. The spot/active-region time-scale inferred from the ACF is strongly restricted by the observation length of the light curves. For 1-yr light curves our results are consistent with no correlation between the inferred and the input time-scales. The ACF decay is also significantly affected by differential rotation and spot evolution: strong differential rotation and fast spot evolution contribute to a more severe underestimation of the active-region lifetimes. Nevertheless, in both circumstances the observed time-scale is still correlated with the input lifetimes. Therefore, our analysis suggests that the ACF decay can be used to obtain a lower limit of the active-region lifetimes for relatively long-term observations. However, strategies to avoid or flag targets with fast active-region evolution or displaying stable beating patterns associated with differential rotation should be employed.

Santos, A. R. G. (ORCID:0000000171956542)↗

Diabatic Eddy Forcing Increases Persistence and Opposes Propagation of the Southern Annular Mode in MERRA-2

Abstract As a dominant mode of jet variability on subseasonal time scales, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) provides a window into how the atmosphere can produce internal oscillations on longer-than-synoptic time scales. While SAM’s existence can be explained by dry, purely barotropic theories, the time scale for its persistence and propagation is set by a lagged interaction between barotropic and baroclinic mechanisms, making the exact physical mechanisms challenging to identify and to simulate, even in latest generation models. By partitioning the eddy momentum flux convergence in MERRA-2 using an eddy–mean flow interaction framework, we demonstrate that diabatic processes (condensation and radiative heating) are the main contributors to SAM’s persistence in its stationary regime, as well as the key for preventing propagation in this regime. In SAM’s propagating regime, baroclinic and diabatic feedbacks also dominate the eddy–jet feedback. However, propagation is initiated by barotropic shifts in upper-level wave breaking and then sustained by a baroclinic response, leading to a roughly 60-day oscillation period. This barotropic propagation mechanism has been identified in dry, idealized models, but here we show evidence of this mechanism for the first time in reanalysis. The diabatic feedbacks on SAM are consistent with modulation of the storm-track latitude by SAM, altering the emission temperature and cloud cover over individual waves. Therefore, future attempts to improve the SAM time scale in models should focus on the storm-track location, as well as the roles of the cloud and moisture parameterizations. Significance Statement As they circumnavigate the planet, the tropospheric jet streams slowly drift north and south over about 30 days, longer than the normal limit of weather prediction. Understanding the source of this “memory” could improve our knowledge of how the atmosphere organizes itself and our ability to make long-term forecasts. Current theories have identified several possible internal atmospheric interactions responsible for this memory. Yet most of the theories for understanding the jets’ behavior assume that this behavior is only weakly influenced by atmospheric water vapor. We show that this assumption is not enough to understand jet persistence. Instead, clouds and precipitation are more important contributors in reanalysis data than internal “dry” mechanisms to this memory of the Southern Hemisphere jet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of Tethered Polymers on Dynamics of Nanoparticles in Unentangled Polymer Melts

Polymer-tethered nanoparticles (NPs) are commonly added to a polymer matrix to improve the material properties. Critical to the fabrication and processing of such composites is the mobility of the tethered NPs. Here, we study the motion of tethered NPs in unentangled polymer melts using molecular dynamics simulations, which offer a precise control of the grafted chain length N g and the number z of grafted chains per particle. As Ng increases, there is a crossover from particle-dominated to tethered-chain-dominated terminal diffusion of NPs with the same z. The mean squared displacement of loosely tethered NPs in the case of tethered-chain-dominated terminal diffusion exhibits two subdiffusive regimes at intermediate time scales for small z. The first one at shorter time scales arises from the dynamical coupling of the particle and matrix chains, while the one at longer time scales is due to the participation of the particle in the dynamics of the tethered chains. The friction of loosely grafted chains in unentangled melts scales linearly with the total number of monomers in the chains, as the friction of individual monomers is additive in the absence of hydrodynamic coupling. As more chains are grafted to a particle, hydrodynamic interactions between grafted chains emerge. As a result, there is a nondraining layer of hydrodynamically coupled chain segments surrounding the bare particle. Outside the nondraining layer is a free-draining layer of grafted chain segments with no hydrodynamic coupling. The boundary of the two layers is the stick surface where the shear stress due to the relative melt flow is balanced by the friction between the grafted and melt chains in the interpenetration layer. The stick surface is located further away from the bare surface of the particle with higher grafting density.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Probing time-resolved plasma-driven solution electrochemistry in a falling liquid film plasma reactor: Identification of HO$^−_2$ as a plasma-derived reducing agent

Many applications involving plasma–liquid interactions depend on the reactive processes occurring at the plasma–liquid interface. In this article, we report on a falling liquid film plasma reactor allowing for in situ optical absorption measurements of the time-dependence of the ferricyanide/ferrocyanide redox reactivity, complemented with ex situ measurement of the decomposition of formate. We found excellent agreement between the measured decomposition percentages and the diffusion-limited decomposition of formate by interfacial plasma-enabled reactions, except at high pH in thin liquid films, indicating the involvement of previously unexplored plasma-induced liquid phase chemistry enabled by long-lived reactive species. We also determined that high pH facilitates a reduction-favoring environment in ferricyanide/ferrocyanide redox solutions. In situ conversion measurements of a 1:1 ferricyanide/ferrocyanide redox mixture exceed the measured ex situ conversion and show that conversion of a 1:1 ferricyanide/ferrocyanide mixture is strongly dependent on film thickness. We identified three dominant processes: reduction faster than ms time scales for film thicknesses >100 µm, •OH-driven oxidation on time scales of <10 ms, and reduction on 15 ms time scales for film thickness <100 µm. We attribute the slow reduction and larger formate decomposition at high pH to HO$^−_2$ formed from plasma-produced H 2 O 2 enabled by the high pH at the plasma–liquid interface as confirmed experimentally and by computed reaction rates of HO$^−_2$ with ferricyanide. Overall, this work demonstrates the utility of liquid film reactors in enabling the discovery of new plasma-interfacial chemistry and the utility of atmospheric plasmas for electrodeless electrochemistry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Strong Red Noise Ocean Forcing on Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Assessed from Surface Heat Flux: Theory and Application

The role of ocean forcing on Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is assessed from the (downward) heat flux–SST relation in the framework of a new stochastic climate theory forced by red noise ocean forcing. Previous studies suggested that atmospheric forcing drives SST variability from monthly to interannual time scales, with a positive heat flux–SST correlation, while heat flux induced by ocean processes can drive SST variability at decadal and longer time scales, with a negative heat flux–SST correlation. Here, first, we develop a theory to show how the sign of heat flux–SST correlation is affected by atmospheric and oceanic forcing with time scale. In particular, a red noise ocean forcing is necessary for the sign reversal of heat flux–SST correlation. Furthermore, this sign reversal can be detected equivalently in three approaches: the low-pass correlation at lag zero, the unfiltered correlation at long (heat flux) lead, and the real part of the heat flux–SST coherence. Second, we develop a new scheme in combination with the theory to assess the magnitude and time scale of the red noise ocean forcing for AMV in the GFDL SPEAR model (Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research) and observations. In both the model and observations, the ocean forcing on AMV is in general comparable with the atmospheric forcing, with a 90% probability greater than the atmospheric forcing in observations. In contrast to the white noise atmospheric forcing, the ocean forcing has a persistence time comparable or longer than a year, much longer than the SST persistence of ~3 months. This slow ocean forcing is associated implicitly with slow subsurface ocean dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Space–time structure of weak magnetohydrodynamic turbulence

The two-time energy spectrum of weak magnetohydrodynamic turbulence is found by applying a wave-turbulence closure to the cumulant hierarchy constructed from the dynamical equations. Solutions are facilitated via asymptotic expansions in terms of the small parameter $\varepsilon$ , describing the ratio of time scales corresponding to Alfvénic propagation and nonlinear interactions between counter-propagating Alfvén waves. The strength of nonlinearity at a given spatial scale is further quantified by an integration over all possible delta-correlated modes compliant in a given set of three-wave interactions that are associated with energy flux through the said scale. The wave-turbulence closure for the two-time spectrum uncovers a secularity occurring on a time scale of order $\varepsilon ^{-2}$ , and the asymptotic expansion for the spectrum is reordered in a manner comparable to the one-time case. It is shown that for the regime of stationary turbulence, the two-time energy spectrum exponentially decays on a lagged time scale $(\varepsilon ^2 \gamma _k^s)^{-1}$ in proportion to the strength of the associated three-wave interactions, characterized by nonlinear decorrelation frequency $\gamma _k^s$ . The scaling of the form $k_{\perp } v_0 \chi _0$ exhibited by this frequency is reminiscent of random sweeping by the outer scale with characteristic fluctuation velocity $v_0$ that is modified due to competition with Alfvénic propagation (characterized by $\chi _0$ ) at the said scale. A brief calculation of frequency broadening of the power spectrum due to nonlinear interactions is also presented.

Physics↗

Adaptive Time Step Control for Multirate Infinitesimal Methods

Multirate methods have been used for decades to temporally evolve initial-value problems in which different components evolve on distinct time scales, and thus use of different step sizes for these components can result in increased computational efficiency. Generally, such methods select these different step sizes based on experimentation or stability considerations. For problems that evolve on a single time scale, adaptivity approaches that strive to control local temporal error are widely used to achieve numerical results of a desired accuracy with minimal computational effort, while alleviating the need for manual experimentation with different time step sizes. However, there is a notable gap in the publication record on the development of adaptive time step controllers for multirate methods. In this paper, we extend the single-rate controller work of Gustafsson [ACM Trans. Math. Software, 20 (1994), pp. 496-517] to the multirate method setting. Specifically, we develop controllers based on polynomial approximations to the principal error functions for both the "fast" and "slow" time scales within multirate infinitesimal (MRI) methods. We additionally investigate a variety of approaches for estimating the errors arising from each time scale within MRI methods. We then numerically evaluate the proposed multirate controllers and error estimation strategies on a range of multirate test problems, comparing their performance against an estimated optimal performance. Through this work, we combine the most performant of these approaches to arrive at a set of multirate adaptive time step controllers that robustly achieve desired solution accuracy with minimal computational effort.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Optimal sensor network design for multi-scale, time-varying differential algebraic equation systems: Application to an entrained-flow gasifier refractory brick

An algorithm for optimal sensor network design for multi-scale, time-varying differential algebraic equation systems with non-separable dynamics is presented. As the process is time-varying, an integral normalized posterior error covariance of a multi-scale filter is minimized to obtain the optimal sensor locations. For reducing the computational cost, an adaptive sampling rate approach is considered for the slowly-varying variables. The algorithm is applied to a smart refractory brick with embedded sensors as part of an entrained-flow gasifier. Thermistors and interdigital capacitors are considered as candidate measurement technologies for estimating temperature and slag penetration profile along the gasifier wall. Finally, when the optimal set of sensors obtained from the algorithm is used for estimating temperature and slag penetration profiles in a multi-scale Kalman filter framework, satisfactory estimates are obtained despite high measurement noise and model mismatch.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Complete spectroscopy in the attosecond regime

Harnessing light waveforms at attosecond time scales provides information of the structure and dynamics of matter on it's natural time scales. For this reason attosecond metrology has been at the forefront of the optical sciences for more than a decade, and it represents the latest time-domain frontier of the quantum world. Attosecond light pulses are commonly generated using higher-order harmonic generation (HHG) , a process capable of generating XUV coherent pulses. In addition to generate attosecond pulses, HHG can be used to study the structure and dynamics of atoms and molecules by analyzing the spectral content of the XUV pulses. This approach is known as HHG spectroscopy and it provides a coherent, time-dependent approach to study structure and dynamics in the quantum world. In this proposal we will generate harmonics from two optical foci produced by a system of a two-dimensional spatial light modulator (SLM) and a lens. In the far eld the train of attosecond pulses will interfere creating harmonic-dependent fringes. The position of such fringes is a direct measurement of the relative phase between the two foci and they also carry information about the quantum state of the target atom or molecule. Therefore, by measuring the amplitude and relative phase of the emitted harmonics we will have access to both, the amplitude and phase of the dipole moments of the studied target. Because the two beams are completely indistinguishable from each other up to a few millimeters from the focus, both driving pulses share the exact beam path. So far we have measured a jitter of 700 zeptoseconds with a 12.5 attosecond resolution in the delay control of the two foci. These two time scales represent some of the best time controls ever achieved to date.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Femtosecond diffraction studies of the sodium chloride phase diagram under laser shock compression

The phase diagram of sodium chloride (NaCl) under laser shock compression has been studied at Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS) at the x-ray free-electron laser facility. Both solid–solid (B1 → B2) and solid–liquid (B2 → liquid) transitions have been observed along the Hugoniot over nanosecond time scales. By combining structural measurements through in situ x-ray diffraction, pressure determination through velocimetry, and a thermal equation-of-state, the shock-compressed data are used to constrain the phase diagram of NaCl. Transformation into the B2 phase is found to occur at 28(2) GPa, and B2–liquid coexistence is observed between 54(4) and 66(6) GPa, with near full melt at 66(6) GPa. Late-time pressure release from an initial shocked B2-state results in a B2 → B1 back transformation. Our results show agreement with previous static compression data, suggesting that the time scale for melting is very rapid and that equilibrium states in NaCl are being accessed over nanosecond time scales. Finally, a multiphase equation-of-state description of NaCl incorporated into a one-dimensional hydrocode is used to interpret pressure and temperature evolution over these rapid time scales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗