Advanced Reactor Safeguards Scenario Timeline Exploration
Slides for the advanced reactor safeguards spring 2022 program review meeting.
98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
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Production Cycle Characteristics and Timelines for National Nuclear Materials Archive
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Robinson, Sharon↗
Physical Security Timeline Analysis in Support of Advanced Reactor Demonstration and Deployment
This report presents the regulatory requirements and directions on the physical security of advanced nuclear reactors in USA. Presently, a rule is being proposed that allows for a performance-based analysis. In determining the physical security requirements for an advanced reactor, new tools may be desired to conduct a performance-based analysis. These tools should incorporate dynamic analysis methods to provide as much realism as possible. In comparison, the security requirements for existing light water reactors (LWRs) are much more prescriptive and the analysis conducted to establish the required physical security strategies were more easily performed with static analysis. In order to achieve the cost goals that advanced reactors require for adoption; the nuclear security force required should not be excessive. Dynamic physical security analysis methods and tools have been developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. This report details how the dynamic risk analysis tools developed in the LWRS program using the dynamic risk modelling tool, EMRALD, may be adapted for use in analyzing the physical security designs for advanced reactors accounting for variable performance-based requirements. This report provides an example analysis of a hypothetical SFR using publicly available information and generic assumptions to demonstrate the methods and potential presentation and analysis of the results. No actual plant information is used in this example analysis. Future work in this area will create additional models that can be adapted for any advanced reactor concept and use various security features to create a physical security system that provides adequate protection from radiological theft and sabotage.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Compressing the Recovery Timeline for an Urban Contamination Event - 19539
This study identified equipment that has the potential to support mitigation activities associated with a radiological or nuclear release in the urban environment. Equipment capabilities, availability, and usefulness was assessed for potential deployment following the initial emergency phase of a response. The study was devised to connect emergency management and homeland security offices at the city, state, and federal agencies and discuss the availability and potential response capabilities of equipment reserves. This project focused on connecting with relevant emergency management and homeland security offices at the city, state, and regional level, including major cities across the United States, and with federal agencies. Within these offices, we consulted with subject matter experts (SMEs) in discussions via workshops, phone conversations, and small meetings. The result was a compilation and assessment of approaches to address realistic contamination scenarios and the types of equipment assets that would or could assist in the response and recovery activities. Recommendations on how current equipment reserves can be best used or modified to improve the resilience of a community during a radiological or nuclear contamination event were documented. (authors)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
In-Space Crew-Collaborative Task Scheduling
For all past and current human space missions, the final scheduling of tasks to be done in space has been devoid of crew control, flexibility, and insight. Ground controllers, with minimal input from the crew, schedule the tasks and uplink the timeline to the crew or uplink the command sequences to the hardware. Prior to the International Space Station (ISS), the crew could make requests about tomorrow s timeline, they could omit a task, or they could request that something in the timeline be delayed. This lack of control over one's own schedule has had negative consequences. There is anecdotal consensus among astronauts that control over their own schedules will mitigate the stresses of long duration missions. On ISS, a modicum of crew control is provided by the job jar. Ground controllers prepare a task list (a.k.a. "job jar") of non-conflicting tasks from which jobs can be chosen by the in space crew. Because there is little free time and few interesting non-conflicting activities, the task-list approach provides little relief from the tedium of being micro-managed by the timeline. Scheduling for space missions is a complex and laborious undertaking which usually requires a large cadre of trained specialists and suites of complex software tools. It is a giant leap from today s ground prepared timeline (with a job jar) to full crew control of the timeline. However, technological advances, currently in-work or proposed, make it reasonable to consider scheduling a collaborative effort by the ground-based teams and the in-space crew. Collaboration would allow the crew to make minor adjustments, add tasks according to their preferences, understand the reasons for the placement of tasks on the timeline, and provide them a sense of control. In foreseeable but extraordinary situations, such as a quick response to anomalies and extended or unexpected loss of signal, the crew should have the autonomous ability to make appropriate modifications to the timeline, extend the timeline, or even start over with a new timeline. The Vision for Space Exploration (VSE), currently being pursued by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), will send humans to Mars in a few decades. Stresses on the human mind will be exacerbated by the longer durations and greater distances, and it will be imperative to implement stress-reducing innovations such as giving the crew control of their daily activities.
Jaap, John↗
Crossing the Barriers: An Analysis of Permitting Barriers to Geothermal Development and Potential Improvement Scenarios
Developers have identified many non-technical barriers to geothermal power development, including permitting. Activities required for permitting, such as the associated environmental reviews, can take a considerable amount of time and delay project development. This paper discusses the impacts to geothermal development timelines due to the permitting challenges, including the regulatory framework, environmental review process, and ancillary permits. We identified barriers that have the potential to prevent geothermal development or delay timelines and defined improvement scenarios that could assist in expediting geothermal development and permitting timelines and lead to the deployment of additional geothermal resources by 2030 and 2050: (1) the creation of a centralized federal geothermal permitting office and utilization of state permit coordination offices as well as (2) an expansion of existing categorical exclusions applicable to geothermal development on Bureau of Land Management public lands to include the oil and gas categorical exclusions passed as part of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. We utilized the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) and the Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) to forecast baseline geothermal deployment based on previous analysis of geothermal project development and permitting timelines. The model results forecast that reductions in geothermal project timelines can have a significant impact on geothermal deployment. For example, using the ReEDS model, we estimated that reducing timelines by two years, perhaps due to the creation of a centralized federal geothermal permitting office and utilization of state permit coordination offices, could result in deployment of an additional 204 MW by 2030 and 768 MW by 2050 - a 13% improvement when compared to the business as usual scenario. The model results forecast that a timeline improvement of four years - for example with an expansion of existing categorical exclusions coupled with the creation of a centralized federal geothermal permitting office and utilization of state permit coordination offices - could result in deployment of an additional 2,529 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030 and 6,917 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050 - an improvement of 116% when compared to the business as usual scenario. These results suggest that reducing development timelines could be a large driver in the deployment of geothermal resources.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
International Space Station (ISS) Payload Autonomous Operations Past, Present and Future
Draper Laboratorys Timeliner is a scripting and automation system that runs onboard computers in the International Space Station (ISS). Timeliner is fully integrated with ISS and can be used to automate ISS operations tasks. Some of the most challenging aspects of operating a payload in low earth orbit are communication delays, ground equipment failures, and human errors. How does a Payload Developer (PD) know their equipment is operating nominally and collecting science in the most efficient way possible or even powered at any given time? During a ground Loss of Signal (LOS) data outage, PDs have no insight into their experiments state, and benefit greatly from Timeliner scripts executing on ISS to perform telemetry monitoring and commanding operations. This paper will discuss current software designs, and new operational uses for Timeliner. Existing Timeliner capabilities discussed will include: autonomous EXPRESS Rack activation and deactivation; autonomous science data downlinks; Minus Eighty Degree Freezer (MELFI) Dewar autonomous safing; JAXA and ESA module autonomous payload facility safing; as well as many others. New operational concepts discussed will include allowing Timeliner on the payload computer to issue core commands (Thermal, Power, Fire Detection), creation of new ground tools that will monitor the current status of Payload Racks as well as all the messaging from autonomous scripts executing, decreasing approval time for Timeliner bundles, and opening up the Payload MDM Enhanced Processor Integrated Communications Card (EPIC) interface. The EPIC interface could provide a new crew interface for PL Timeliner execution. The new interface could operate on either a Payload Computer System (PCS) or a Station Support Computer (SSC) that is plugged into either the Payload LAN or the Operations LAN which will make communicating to the PL MDM more flexible and greatly increase band width for communication.
Space Mission Automation↗
Onboard Short Term Plan Viewer
Onboard Short Term Plan Viewer (OSTPV) is a computer program for electronic display of mission plans and timelines, both aboard the International Space Station (ISS) and in ISS ground control stations located in several countries. OSTPV was specifically designed both (1) for use within the limited ISS computing environment and (2) to be compatible with computers used in ground control stations. OSTPV supplants a prior system in which, aboard the ISS, timelines were printed on paper and incorporated into files that also contained other paper documents. Hence, the introduction of OSTPV has both reduced the consumption of resources and saved time in updating plans and timelines. OSTPV accepts, as input, the mission timeline output of a legacy, print-oriented, UNIX-based program called "Consolidated Planning System" and converts the timeline information for display in an interactive, dynamic, Windows Web-based graphical user interface that is used by both the ISS crew and ground control teams in real time. OSTPV enables the ISS crew to electronically indicate execution of timeline steps, launch electronic procedures, and efficiently report to ground control teams on the statuses of ISS activities, all by use of laptop computers aboard the ISS.
Hall, Tim↗
Irreducible Tests for Space Mission Sequencing Software
As missions extend further into space, the modeling and simulation of their every action and instruction becomes critical. The greater the distance between Earth and the spacecraft, the smaller the window for communication becomes. Therefore, through modeling and simulating the planned operations, the most efficient sequence of commands can be sent to the spacecraft. The Space Mission Sequencing Software is being developed as the next generation of sequencing software to ensure the most efficient communication to interplanetary and deep space mission spacecraft. Aside from efficiency, the software also checks to make sure that communication during a specified time is even possible, meaning that there is not a planet or moon preventing reception of a signal from Earth or that two opposing commands are being given simultaneously. In this way, the software not only models the proposed instructions to the spacecraft, but also validates the commands as well.To ensure that all spacecraft communications are sequenced properly, a timeline is used to structure the data. The created timelines are immutable and once data is as-signed to a timeline, it shall never be deleted nor renamed. This is to prevent the need for storing and filing the timelines for use by other programs. Several types of timelines can be created to accommodate different types of communications (activities, measurements, commands, states, events). Each of these timeline types requires specific parameters and all have options for additional parameters if needed. With so many combinations of parameters available, the robustness and stability of the software is a necessity. Therefore a baseline must be established to ensure the full functionality of the software and it is here where the irreducible tests come into use.
sequencing test↗
Digital Prototyping Methods to Enable Product Development Analysis Cycle Compression in Aerospace Systems
Historically, the product development life cycle (spanning from origination of a systems concept to initial delivery or fielding) for large-scale aerospace systems is 10-25 years. Examples of recent programs exhibiting this timeline are the Space Shuttle (13 years), , International Space Station (18 years), NASA Hubble telescope (16 years), USAF F-35 Strike Fighter (22 years), Missile Defense Agency THAAD (21 years), USAF V-22 Osprey (26 years), USAF B-2 Spirt (19 years), US Army RAH-66 Comanche (22 years, cancelled prior to fielding), James Webb Space Telescope (25 years), Space Launch System (10 years). This list illustrates the challenges of developing and fielding a modern integrated multi-disciplinary aerospace system. These development timelines are often preceded by significant research and development programs and followed by multiple increments, blocks, or spirals to reach planned operational capability. In the modern era of aerospace system acquisition, there is significant pressure to reduce system development timelines to meet system objectives and enable competitiveness in the current industry and landscape. Across the aerospace industry, a range of rapid acquisition and prototyping programs are seeking to achieve system development within timelines considerably less than 10 years. Notably, in September of 2019, NASA issued a solicitation for the development and demonstration of a Human Landing System (HLS) to deliver humans to the lunar surface by 2024 (5 years) and for the development and demonstration of a more sustainable HLS by 2026 (7 years). Lengthy product development cycle timelines are a product of multiple factors ranging from programmatic, sociological, technical, and systems engineering issues. New approaches in systems engineering provide new ways to enable these compressed development timelines. These approaches employ expanded application of advanced systems engineering methods and cross-cutting digital tools to accelerate system development, utilizing digital prototyping to connect maturing sub-system or component technologies into system or system-of-systems hardware prototypes. Approaches such as the use of system integrating physics relationships to reduce the number of design analysis cycle iterations and state analysis modeling to reduce necessary software testing (and improving coverage of system execution scenarios) represent steps forward in reducing the engineering time needed to field new systems. In addition to cost, schedule and performance benefits, expanded digital exploration and demonstration reduce risk in live system test and demonstration. This incremental demonstration approach, where digital prototyping and demonstration leads and informs full system test and demonstration, could be more important for space applications because of the increased difficulty of test and demonstration of space systems and architectures. The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at Marshall Space Flight Center merges traditional multi-disciplinary concept definition methods with modern, cross-cutting systems engineering concepts to enable iterative design and analysis of space architectures and systems through coordinated, strategic management of human capital, technical processes, and technology. This paper provides an overview of that approach, including recent examples and a strategic path forward to enabling continued reduction of aerospace system product development life cycles.
Michael D Watson↗
Identifying Emerging Safety Threats Through Topic Modeling in the Aviation Safety Reporting System: A Covid-19 Study
The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is a voluntary, confidential aviation safety reporting system. The ASRS receives reports from pilots, air traffic controllers, flight attendants, and others involved in aviation operations. The reports are de-identified and coded by ASRS expert safety analysts, and a short descriptive synopsis is written to describe the safety issue. The de-identified reports are then disseminated to the aviation community in many ways, including via an online database, Safety Alert Bulletins, For Your Information Notices, and the CALLBACK newsletter. In this work, we consider whether we can improve the grouping, linking, and understanding of safety concerns through topic modeling. Specifically, we use topic modeling as a building block to identify emerging safety threats over time. This unsupervised approach, we argue, offers the flexibility to identify new emerging themes in this large dataset by constructing different timelines based on the content similarity of ASRS report narratives. This method's unsupervised nature improves upon related research, which is limited to pre-defined labels and therefore can not fully capture emerging safety threats. We apply our method to all ASRS reports in 2020 to assess if the generated timelines can highlight COVID-19 as it is emerging as a safety threat in incoming ASRS reports. We perform both a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the automatically constructed timelines. The qualitative evaluation is performed by describing the evolution of top terms in the timelines, generated by our method, which we found explicitly convey the themes of COVID-19. Separately, we use a set of 1,213 COVID-19 reports from 2020 that were manually identified by ASRS analysts to quantitatively evaluate the COVID-19 reports distribution across the timelines. Our results have shown that COVID-19 emergence can be identified using the top terms that were generated by topic modeling. The top terms in topic modeling therefore can serve as a summary alternative to manually inspecting reports. Moreover, leveraging the manually identified COVID-19 reports, we found the manually identified timelines accounted for over 70% of the COVID-19 reports curated by the ASRS analysts, which demonstrates the potential of this approach for facilitating the understanding of safety concerns as they emerge and evolve. This method shows great potential to understand aerospace safety threats and other narrative- driven incident report databases.
ASRS↗
Identifying Emerging Safety Threats Through Topic Modeling in the Aviation Safety Reporting System: A COVID-19 Study
The NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) is a voluntary, confidential aviation safety reporting system. The ASRS receives reports from pilots, air traffic controllers, flight attendants, and others involved in aviation operations. The reports are de-identified and coded by ASRS expert safety analysts, and a short descriptive synopsis is written to describe the safety issue. The de-identified reports are then disseminated to the aviation community in many ways, including via an online database, Safety Alert Bulletins, For Your Information Notices, and the CALLBACK newsletter. In this work, we consider whether we can improve the grouping, linking, and understanding of safety concerns through topic modeling. Specifically, we use topic modeling as a building block to identify emerging safety threats over time. This unsupervised approach, we argue, offers the flexibility to identify new emerging themes in this large dataset by constructing different timelines based on the content similarity of ASRS report narratives. This method's unsupervised nature improves upon related research, which is limited to pre-defined labels and therefore can not fully capture emerging safety threats. We apply our method to all ASRS reports in 2020 to assess if the generated timelines can highlight COVID-19 as it is emerging as a safety threat in incoming ASRS reports. We perform both a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the automatically constructed timelines. The qualitative evaluation is performed by describing the evolution of top terms in the timelines, generated by our method, which we found explicitly convey the themes of COVID-19. Separately, we use a set of 1,213 COVID-19 reports from 2020 that were manually identified by ASRS analysts to quantitatively evaluate the COVID-19 reports distribution across the timelines. Our results have shown that COVID-19 emergence can be identified using the top terms that were generated by topic modeling. The top terms in topic modeling therefore can serve as a summary alternative to manually inspecting reports. Moreover, leveraging the manually identified COVID-19 reports, we found the manually identified timelines accounted for over 70% of the COVID-19 reports curated by the ASRS analysts, which demonstrates the potential of this approach for facilitating the understanding of safety concerns as they emerge and evolve. This method shows great potential to understand aerospace safety threats and other narrative- driven incident report databases.
ASRS↗
An Analysis of Rocket Propulsion Testing Costs
The primary mission at NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) is rocket propulsion testing. Such testing is generally performed within two arenas: (1) Production testing for certification and acceptance, and (2) Developmental testing for prototype or experimental purposes. The customer base consists of NASA programs, DOD programs, and commercial programs. Resources in place to perform on-site testing include both civil servants and contractor personnel, hardware and software including data acquisition and control, and 6 test stands with a total of 14 test positions/cells. For several business reasons there is the need to augment understanding of the test costs for all the various types of test campaigns. Historical propulsion test data was evaluated and analyzed in many different ways with the intent to find any correlation or statistics that could help produce more reliable and accurate cost estimates and projections. The analytical efforts included timeline trends, statistical curve fitting, average cost per test, cost per test second, test cost timeline, and test cost envelopes. Further, the analytical effort includes examining the test cost from the perspective of thrust level and test article characteristics. Some of the analytical approaches did not produce evidence strong enough for further analysis. Some other analytical approaches yield promising results and are candidates for further development and focused study. Information was organized for into its elements: a Project Profile, Test Cost Timeline, and Cost Envelope. The Project Profile is a snap shot of the project life cycle on a timeline fashion, which includes various statistical analyses. The Test Cost Timeline shows the cumulative average test cost, for each project, at each month where there was test activity. The Test Cost Envelope shows a range of cost for a given number of test(s). The supporting information upon which this study was performed came from diverse sources and thus it was necessary to build several intermediate databases in order to understand, validate, and manipulate data. These intermediate databases (validated historical account of schedule, test activity, and cost) by themselves are of great value and utility. For example, for the Project Profile, we were able to merged schedule, cost, and test activity. This kind of historical account conveys important information about sequence of events, lead time, and opportunities for improvement in future propulsion test projects. The Product Requirement Document (PRD) file is a collection of data extracted from each project PRD (technical characteristics, test requirements, and projection of cost, schedule, and test activity). This information could help expedite the development of future PRD (or equivalent document) on similar projects, and could also, when compared to the actual results, help improve projections around cost and schedule. Also, this file can be sorted by the parameter of interest to perform a visual review of potential common themes or trends. The process of searching, collecting, and validating propulsion test data encountered a lot of difficulties which then led to a set of recommendations for improvement in order to facilitate future data gathering and analysis.
Ramirez-Pagan, Carmen P.↗
Autonomous Real Time Requirements Tracing
One of the more challenging aspects of software development is the ability to verify and validate the functional software requirements dictated by the Software Requirements Specification (SRS) and the Software Detail Design (SDD). Insuring the software has achieved the intended requirements is the responsibility of the Software Quality team and the Software Test team. The utilization of Timeliner-TLX(sup TM) Auto- Procedures for relocating ground operations positions to ISS automated on-board operations has begun the transition that would be required for manned deep space missions with minimal crew requirements. This transition also moves the auto-procedures from the procedure realm into the flight software arena and as such the operational requirements and testing will be more structured and rigorous. The autoprocedures would be required to meet NASA software standards as specified in the Software Safety Standard (NASASTD- 8719), the Software Engineering Requirements (NPR 7150), the Software Assurance Standard (NASA-STD-8739) and also the Human Rating Requirements (NPR-8705). The Autonomous Fluid Transfer System (AFTS) test-bed utilizes the Timeliner-TLX(sup TM) Language for development of autonomous command and control software. The Timeliner-TLX(sup TM) system has the unique feature of providing the current line of the statement in execution during real-time execution of the software. The feature of execution line number internal reporting unlocks the capability of monitoring the execution autonomously by use of a companion Timeliner-TLX(sup TM) sequence as the line number reporting is embedded inside the Timeliner-TLX(sup TM) execution engine. This negates I/O processing of this type data as the line number status of executing sequences is built-in as a function reference. This paper will outline the design and capabilities of the AFTS Autonomous Requirements Tracker, which traces and logs SRS requirements as they are being met during real-time execution of the targeted system. It is envisioned that real time requirements tracing will greatly assist the movement of autoprocedures to flight software enhancing the software assurance of auto-procedures and also their acceptance as reliable commanders.
Plattsmier, George↗
Autonomous Real Time Requirements Tracing
One of the more challenging aspects of software development is the ability to verify and validate the functional software requirements dictated by the Software Requirements Specification (SRS) and the Software Detail Design (SDD). Insuring the software has achieved the intended requirements is the responsibility of the Software Quality team and the Software Test team. The utilization of Timeliner-TLX(sup TM) Auto-Procedures for relocating ground operations positions to ISS automated on-board operations has begun the transition that would be required for manned deep space missions with minimal crew requirements. This transition also moves the auto-procedures from the procedure realm into the flight software arena and as such the operational requirements and testing will be more structured and rigorous. The autoprocedures would be required to meet NASA software standards as specified in the Software Safety Standard (NASASTD- 8719), the Software Engineering Requirements (NPR 7150), the Software Assurance Standard (NASA-STD-8739) and also the Human Rating Requirements (NPR-8705). The Autonomous Fluid Transfer System (AFTS) test-bed utilizes the Timeliner-TLX(sup TM) Language for development of autonomous command and control software. The Timeliner- TLX(sup TM) system has the unique feature of providing the current line of the statement in execution during real-time execution of the software. The feature of execution line number internal reporting unlocks the capability of monitoring the execution autonomously by use of a companion Timeliner-TLX(sup TM) sequence as the line number reporting is embedded inside the Timeliner-TLX(sup TM) execution engine. This negates I/O processing of this type data as the line number status of executing sequences is built-in as a function reference. This paper will outline the design and capabilities of the AFTS Autonomous Requirements Tracker, which traces and logs SRS requirements as they are being met during real-time execution of the targeted system. It is envisioned that real time requirements tracing will greatly assist the movement of autoprocedures to flight software enhancing the software assurance of auto-procedures and also their acceptance as reliable commanders
Plattsmier, George I.↗
Mars 2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing Software Implementation
On February 18th, 2021, the Mars 2020 project's Perseverance Rover successfully touched down on the Martian surface after nearly eight years of development. The Mars 2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) System largely leveraged heritage from the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) EDL System while employing targeted technological advancements. The landing process is autonomously directed by a software behavior implemented in the rover's primary flight computer called the EDL Timeline that assumes control of the vehicle six days before atmospheric entry. In addition to performing the critical function of landing the rover on the Martian surface, the EDL timeline behavior must co-exist in a non-partitioned software and system environment with other high-level functions that accomplish the goals for the rest of the mission. Due to the criticality of EDL, the potential for loss of mission, and a need for complete system autonomy, the standard for how the EDL Timeline interacts with other functions in the system is highly constrained. This paper first walks through the basics of the EDL Timeline mechanics and how the behavior is designed to account for internal system variations and environmental unknowns. It then summarizes the interactions between the EDL timeline and other high-level system behaviors like spacecraft mode transitions and system fault protection, focusing on the complications that arise when passing spacecraft control between executive functions. Although the MSL-inherited EDL System is reliable and capable, targeted updates and a thorough verification and validation program were required for Mars 2020. This paper discusses changes made to close vulnerabilities discovered during both MSL and Mars 2020 development cycles, landing system capability enhancements that were enabling for Mars 2020's mission, and how these updates were integrated with the heritage system. It then describes how both analysis and testing campaigns were utilized to verify and validate all aspects of EDL and system behaviors that run during the six days before landing, as well as the operational workarounds that were needed to address problems found during the development and commissioning process. Finally, this paper imparts lessons learned from Mars 2020 EDL development, implementation, and operations, emphasizing how systems designed to conduct time-critical mission events with low margin of error can be improved in the future.
Stehura, Aaron↗
Assessing Government and Industry Roles to Accelerate Commercialization of Advanced Reactors and Supporting Fuel Cycles
Recent growth in private sector interest and investment in advanced reactor designs signals a new period in the greater than six decade pursuit of commercial nuclear technology. This nuclear entrepreneurship is primarily centered in the North America; meanwhile, national programs in China, France, India, Russia, and South Korea also feature active efforts to design, construct, operate and export advanced reactors .The business case for most private ventures calls for an aggressive commercialization timeline-tied to expectations for returns on investment. Finally, strategic energy portfolio projections and utility resource planning point to the 2030 - 2050 window as the period of greatest need for dispatchable, energy intensive, low-carbon generation options to address retirement of baseload capacity, increased penetration of renewables and economy-scale decarbonization. However, lead times for commercialization range from 30 to 50 years based on more traditional government-centric timelines. Fuel development and fuel cycle infrastructure deployment represent parallel timelines that directly influence the timeline for commercialization of many advanced reactor concepts. While multi-decade development periods appear to be commonplace for new nuclear projects, such timelines were not always the norm-three separate countries set out to develop civilian commercial power from fundamental nuclear principles, in just over a decade, on average. The US led light-water reactor (LWR) development in the 1950's, the UK pioneered a gas-cooled reactor (GCR) concept in the same time period, and Canada forged the path to commercializing the heavy-water reactor (HWR) starting in the mid-1950's and into the mid-1960's. The necessary fuel cycle facilities to support the commercial reactor design also did not appear suddenly, but were a collaborative effort between government and private partners. In this paper, the efforts of these three governments and their private industry partnerships in reactor and fuel cycle development are explored, and a select sample of representative milestones for each is presented, with the roles that each group played. (authors)
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Small Hydropower Interconnections: Analysis of Interconnection Processes
Small hydropower projects have faced the challenge of navigating the process to interconnect their generation source to electricity distribution and transmission grids. Small hydropower developers have found interconnection procedures to be opaque and ultimately result in unexpected cost surprises and long timelines. Noting these challenges, the U.S. Department of Energy Water Power Technologies Office enlisted Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to investigate the small hydropower interconnection landscape across the United States. After reviewing the status of small hydropower (“Small Hydropower Interconnections: Small Hydropower in the United States”) and the interconnection procedures across the United States (“Small Hydropower Interconnections: State Interconnection Processes”) in the first two white papers of this series, this paper uses recent data from small hydropower interconnection applications to benchmark the efficacy of the process. Using data from interconnection queues hosted by utilities, balancing authorities, independent system operators (ISOs), and regional transmission organizations (RTOs), this paper provides context for the costs, timelines, and types of upgrades required for small hydropower projects. Interconnection applications and study reports for small hydropower projects were analyzed to collect key pieces of information about the interconnection process, timeline, costs, and type of upgrades required for interconnection. Information sourced from the reports was entered into an Interconnection Benchmarking database (IBdb), which may be found in Appendix A.1. Information from this database was used to evaluate the performance and challenges associated with interconnecting small hydropower projects. This white paper presents a description of the sources contained in the interconnection database (Section 2.0), an analysis of the interconnection timeline (Section 3.0), an evaluation the cost of interconnection upgrades (Section 4.0), and a description of the types of infrastructure upgrades (Section 5.0). The final paper in this series (“Small Hydropower Interconnections: Best Practices”) will use the analysis described here to outline best practices for interconnection processes that will help overcome barriers to future small hydropower development.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗