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At least 127 records · Page 7

Northern Late Winter Planetary Waves: MRO/MARCI Observations and Mars Climate Model Simulations

As does Earth, Mars presents pronounced global atmospheric circulation patterns. Solar differential heating drives mean meridional overturning (Hadley) circulations which are deep and intense, are hemispherically asymmetric, and where a cross-equatorial single cell dominates. Within middle and high latitudes, thermally indirect eddy-driven (Ferrel) circulation cells have been indicated. Differently, however, large-amplitude orography on planetary and continental scales on Mars can force very non-Earth-like hemispheric circulation patterns. Recent observations from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, "Mars Color Imager" (MARCI) instrument are utilized that emphasize water ice clouds in ultra-violet (UV) wavelengths, and these measurements have been binned into "daily global maps" (DGMs) of water-ice cloud optical depth. The presence of large-scale, extratropical quasi-stationary atmospheric wave disturbances in middle and late winter of the northern hemisphere have been found to be present in such DGMs. In combination with such observations, a full-physics Mars global climate model (NASA ARC marsgcm 2.1) is applied to place the observations into context. During late northern winter, it is found that strong, forced Rossby modes (i.e., planetary waves) exist, and with direct correlation to columnintegrated cloud opacity undulating spatial patterns. At this season, zonal wavenumber s = 2 dominates (in contrast to wavenumber s = 1), consistent with MGS/TES analyses at this particular season (Banfield et al., 2003). Large-scale, planetary waves dictate the "coherence" of the northern polar vortex. Fundamentally, such forced planetary waves influence the polar vortex's impermeability (wave-induced) to tracer transport (e.g., dust and water-ice aerosol) and temporal mean water vapor spatial variations. The large-scale dynamical features of such planetary waves will be highlighted and discussed.

Northern polar vortex↗

Improved Constraints on Global Methane Emissions and Sinks Using δ13C-CH4

We study the drivers behind the global atmospheric methane (CH4) increase observed after 2006. Candidate emission and sink scenarios are constructed based on proposed hypotheses in the literature. These scenarios are simulated in the TM5 tracer transport model for 1984–2016 to produce three-dimensional fields of CH4 and δ13C-CH4, which are compared with observations to test the competing hypotheses in the literature in one common model framework. We find that the fossil fuel (FF) CH4 emission trend from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research 4.3.2 inventory does not agree with observed δ13C-CH4. Increased FF CH4 emissions are unlikely to be the dominant driver for the post-2006 global CH4 increase despite the possibility for a small FF emission increase. We also find that a significant decrease in the abundance of hydroxyl radicals (OH) cannot explain the post-2006 global CH4 increase since it does not track the observed decrease in global mean δ13C-CH4. Different CH4 sinks have different fractionation factors for δ13C-CH4, thus we can investigate the uncertainty introduced by the reaction of CH4 with tropospheric chlorine (Cl), a CH4 sink whose abundance, spatial distribution, and temporal changes remain uncertain. Our results show that including or excluding tropospheric Cl as a 13 Tg/year CH4 sink in our model changes the magnitude of estimated fossil emissions by ∼20%. We also found that by using different wetland emissions based on a static versus a dynamic wetland area map, the partitioning between FF and microbial sources differs by 20 Tg/year, ∼12% of estimated fossil emissions.

X. Lan↗

Cumulus cloud transport of transient tracers

A theoretical framework is developed for including cumulus cloud transport, rainout of water soluble gases, and aqueous phase chemistry into gas phase photochemical models. Cloud populations are represented as ensemble distributions of individual clouds of various heights. An individual cloud is represented as a one-dimensional, steady state plume with height-independent radius entraining air from the boundary of the cloud. The model is applied to several hypothetical atmospheric tracers to show how clouds may affect the tropospheric distributions of ozone, NO(y), SO2, peroxyacetylnitrate, hydrocarbons, and other gases. Although the numerical experiments were based on cloud mass fluxes from diagnostic studies in the tropics and thus are not representative of the entire globe, it was found that an increasing mixing ratio with height in the free troposphere can be produced for some gases with only a surface source when clouds are present. This suggests that some reactive tropospheric species with primarily surface sources may play a somewhat more important role in tropospheric chemistry than is presently believed depending on the global distribution of cloud mass fluxes. Deficiencies in existing photochemical models due to the way clouds are typically treated are discussed.

Gidel, L. T.↗

Hydrologic connectivity and dynamics of solute transport in a mountain stream: Insights from a long-term tracer test and multiscale transport modeling informed by machine learning

The movement of solutes in a watershed is a complex process with multiple interactions and feedbacks across spatial and temporal scales. Modeling the dynamics of solute transport along diverse hydrologic pathways within watersheds – from hillslopes to stream channels and in and out of the hyporheic zones – is challenging but critically important, as these processes integrate and contribute to the biogeochemical functioning of the river corridor up to the river network scale. Here we use results from a long-term network-scale tracer test at the H.J. Andrews experimental forest in western Cascade Mountains, Oregon, USA to inform a multiscale framework for transport in stream corridors. The framework uses a Lagrangian-based subgrid model to represent the effects of hyporheic exchange flow and advective transport at stream network scales. The spatially and temporally resolved stream discharge needed for the transport model is imputed across the river system by an entity-aware long short-term memory network. Modeled concentrations show good agreements with the observations and exhibit power scaling laws indicative of a very wide range of timescales over which hyporheic exchange flow occurs. Our results demonstrate a data-informed modeling framework that links dynamical processes occurring at small scales to a network context to help understand how changes at reach scale cascade into network-scale effects, providing a useful tool for sustainable river basin management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Comparison of Measurements from ATMOS and Instruments Aboard the ER-2 Aircraft: Tracers of Atmospheric Transport

We compare volume mixing ratio profiles of N2O, O3, NO(y) H2O, CH4, and CO in the mid-latitude lower stratosphere measured by the ATMOS Fourier transform spectrometer on the ATLAS-3 Space Shuttle Mission with in situ measurements acquired from the NASA ER-2 aircraft during Nov 1994. ATMOS and ER-2 observations of [N2O] show good agreement, as do measured correlations of [O3], [NO(y)], [H2O], and [CH4] with [N2O]. Thus a consistent measure of the hydrogen (H2O, CH4) content of the lower stratosphere is provided by the two platforms. The similarity of [NO(y)] determined by detection of individual species by ATMOS and the total [NO(y)] measurement on the ER-2 provides strong corroboration for the accuracy of both techniques. A 25% discrepancy in lower stratospheric [CO] observed by ATMOS and the ER-2 remains unexplained. Otherwise, the agreement for measurements of long-lived tracers demonstrates the ability to combine ATMOS data with in situ observations for quantifying atmospheric transport.

Chang, A. Y.↗

A Comparison of Measurements from ATMOS and Instruments Aboard the ER-2 Aircraft: Tracers of Atmospheric Transport and Halogenated Gases

We compare volume mixing ratio profiles of N2O, O3, NO(y), H2O, CH4, and CO in the mid-latitude lower stratosphere measured by the ATMOS Fourier transform spectrometer on the ATLAS-3 Space Shuttle Mission with in situ measurements acquired from the NASA ER-2 aircraft during Nov 1994. ATMOS and ER-2 observations of (N2O) show good agreement, as do measured correlations of (O3), (NO(y)), (H2O), and (CH4) with (N2O). Thus a consistent measure of the hydrogen (H2O, CH4) content of the lower stratosphere is provided by the two platforms. The similarity of (NO(y)) determined by detection of individual species by ATMOS and the total (NOy) measurement on the ER-2 provides strong corroboration for the accuracy of both techniques. A 25% discrepancy in lower stratospheric (CO) observed by ATMOS and the ER-2 remains unexplained. Otherwise, the agreement for measurements of long-lived tracers demonstrates the ability to combine ATMOS data with in situ observations for quantifying atmospheric transport.

Chang, A. Y.↗

The permeability of the Antarctic vortex edge

Mixing and cross-vortex mass transport along isentropic surfaces in the lower stratosphere are investigated with a 'contour advection' technique and a semi-Lagrangian transport model for the Antarctic winter of 1993 using analyzed winds from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office data assimilation system. Results from the 'contour advection' technique show that at the vortex edge there exists a potential vorticity (PV) contour that has the smallest lengthening rate. This PV contour is referred to as the 'line of separation' because it essentially separates the inner and outer vortex. The average e-folding time for the lengthening of the 'line of separation' increases monotonically with altitude, ranging from about 7 days on the 350 K isentropic surface to about 105 days on the 500 K isentropic surface. The results also suggest the existence of a transition layer around the 400 K isentropic surface, above which the vortex is nearly completely isolated from the midlatitudes and below which the vortex is less isolated. Results from a semi-Lagrangian transport model with an idealized tracer initially inside the inner vortex show that at 425 K and above virtually no tracer is transported out of the vortex during a 40-day integration starting from July 21, 1993. At 400 K and below a small amount of the tracer is transported out of the vortex while the bulk of the tracer remains confined within the inner vortex.

Chen, Ping↗

Numerical advection by conservation of second-order moments

A new, accurate, and nondiffusive method for three-dimensional advection of trace species is presented. The method preserves tracer structures by conserving the second-order moments of the spatial distribution of tracer during advection. Upstream transport and second-order tracer distribution are described, and the moments of the tracer distribution about the center of a grid box are formally defined and related to the polynomial distribution. Formulas are presented which describe how the moments of a grid box are decomposed into a unique set of moments centered about each subbox and how they are reassembled into new grid boxes. A one-dimensional example if tracer transport is given, and limits necessary to maintain positive tracer concentrations are derived. The accuracy and stability of this method are analytically examined, and numerical experiments testing the effective resolution are presented. The method is compared with other methods for numerical advection of tracers.

Prather, M. J.↗

Exponential time differencing for the tracer equations appearing in primitive equation ocean models

The tracer equations are part of the primitive equations used in ocean modeling and describe the transport of tracers, such as temperature, salinity or chemicals, in the ocean. Depending on the number of tracers considered, several equations may be added to and coupled to the dynamics system. In many relevant situations, the time-step requirements of explicit methods imposed by the transport and mixing in the vertical direction are more restrictive than those for the horizontal, and this may cause the need to use very small time steps if a fully explicit method is employed. To overcome this issue, we propose an exponential time differencing (ETD) solver where the vertical terms (transport and diffusion) are treated with a matrix exponential, whereas the horizontal terms are dealt with in an explicit way. In this work, we investigate numerically the computational speed-ups that can be obtained over other semi-implicit methods, and we analyze the advantages of the method in the case of multiple tracers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

(Project 18-15502) Reducing Uncertainty in Radionuclide Transport Prediction Using Multiple Environmental Tracers (Final Report)

In order to successfully site and design a nuclear waste disposal facility, DOE scientists are required to show safe containment of the radioactive waste for up to 1 million years. A significant hurdle to accurately and convincingly demonstrating disposal safety is predicting the fate of radioactive elements once they enter the groundwater system surrounding the repository. These predictions are often made with computer models, which contain accurate physics of groundwater movement and chemical reactions that occur during groundwater flow. As computer power increases, the physics and chemistry of these computer simulators can become more and more realistic and the physically based error decreases. However, the ability of these computer models to provide accurate predictions in a specific place, over long time periods, requires the scientists and engineers to know the subsurface properties of the Earth that control groundwater movement. In particular, groundwater scientists and engineers need to know the groundwater fluid velocity, which can change over time and strongly vary with location within the groundwater system. Because the Earth’s subsurface cannot be directly seen, and can only be sampled at drilling locations, the properties of the groundwater system are never known completely, and computer models of groundwater transport will always have some amount of uncertainty. This project’s principal goal was to use chemicals and isotope “tracers”, which have been introduced to the groundwater system by natural processes over long time periods, to help inform computer models of the groundwater velocity and subsurface properties. The goal was to calculate how much better predictions of groundwater transport were when these “tracers” were used to inform the computer models.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Simulation of Aerosols and Chemistry with a Unified Global Model

This project is to continue the development of the global simulation capabilities of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry and aerosols in a unified global model. This is a part of our overall investigation of aerosol-chemistry-climate interaction. In the past year, we have enabled the tropospheric chemistry simulations based on the GEOS-CHEM model, and added stratospheric chemical reactions into the GEOS-CHEM such that a globally unified troposphere-stratosphere chemistry and transport can be simulated consistently without any simplifications. The tropospheric chemical mechanism in the GEOS-CHEM includes 80 species and 150 reactions. 24 tracers are transported, including O3, NOx, total nitrogen (NOy), H2O2, CO, and several types of hydrocarbon. The chemical solver used in the GEOS-CHEM model is a highly accurate sparse-matrix vectorized Gear solver (SMVGEAR). The stratospheric chemical mechanism includes an additional approximately 100 reactions and photolysis processes. Because of the large number of total chemical reactions and photolysis processes and very different photochemical regimes involved in the unified simulation, the model demands significant computer resources that are currently not practical. Therefore, several improvements will be taken, such as massive parallelization, code optimization, or selecting a faster solver. We have also continued aerosol simulation (including sulfate, dust, black carbon, organic carbon, and sea-salt) in the global model to cover most of year 2002. These results have been made available to many groups worldwide and accessible from the website http://code916.gsfc.nasa.gov/People/Chin/aot.html.

Chin, Mian↗

Large-Scale Extratropical Weather Systems in Mars' Atmosphere

During late autumn through early spring, extratropical regions on Mars exhibit profound mean zonal equator-to-pole thermal contrasts. The imposition of this strong meridional temperature variation supports intense eastward-traveling, synoptic weather systems (i.e., transient baroclinic/barotropic waves) within Mars' extratropical atmosphere. Such disturbances grow, mature and decay within the east-west varying seasonal-mean midlatitude jet stream (i.e., the polar vortex) on the planet. Near the surface, the weather disturbances indicated large-scale spiraling "comma"-shaped dust cloud structures and scimitar-shaped dust fronts, indicative of processes associated with cyclo-/fronto-genesis. The weather systems occur during specific seasons on Mars, and in both hemispheres. The northern hemisphere (NH) disturbances are significantly more intense than their counterparts in the southern hemisphere (SH). Further, the NH weather systems and accompanying frontal waves appear to have significant impacts on the transport of tracer fields (e.g., particularly dust and to some extent water species (vapor/ice) as well). And regarding dust, frontal waves appear to be key agents in the lifting, lofting, organization and transport of this particular atmospheric aerosol. In this paper, a brief background and supporting observations of Mars' extratropical weather systems is presented. This is followed by a short review of the theory and various modeling studies (i.e., ranging from highly simplified, mechanistic and full global circulation modeling investigations) which have been pursued. Finally, a discussion of outstanding issues and questions regarding the character and nature of Mars' extratropical traveling weather systems is offered.

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.↗

Utilizing Environmental Tracers to Reduce Groundwater Flow and Transport Model Parameter Uncertainties

Abstract Non‐uniqueness in groundwater model calibration is a primary source of uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport predictions. In this study, we investigate the ability of environmental tracer information to constrain groundwater model parameters. We utilize a pilot point calibration procedure conditioned to subsets of observed data including: liquid pressures, tritium ( 3 H), chlorofluorocarbon‐12 (CFC‐12), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) concentrations; and groundwater apparent ages inferred from these environmental tracers, to quantify uncertainties in the heterogeneous permeability fields and infiltration rates of a steady‐state 2‐D synthetic aquifer and a transient 3‐D model of a field site located near Riverton, Wyoming (USA). To identify the relative data worth of each observation data type, the post‐calibration uncertainties of the optimal parameters for a given observation subset are compared to that from the full observation data set. Our results suggest that the calibration‐constrained permeability field uncertainties are largest when liquid pressures are used as the sole calibration data set. We find significant reduction in permeability uncertainty and increased predictive accuracy when the environmental tracer concentrations, rather than apparent groundwater ages, are used as calibration targets in the synthetic model. Calibration of the Riverton field site model using environmental tracer concentrations directly produces infiltration rate estimates with the lowest uncertainties, however; permeability field uncertainties remain similar between the environmental tracer concentration and apparent groundwater age calibration scenarios. This work provides insight on the data worth of environmental tracer information to calibrate groundwater models and highlights potential benefits of directly assimilating environmental tracer concentrations into model parameter estimation procedures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Whole air sampler

Minor constituents play an important role in upper atmospheric photochemistry and serve as tracers in transport and mixing studies in tropospheric stratospheric exchange processes. Measurements of trace gases are essential to an understanding of the mechanisms by which minor constituents originating in the troposphere, both naturally occurring and anthropogenic, reach the stratosphere; data on tracer distributions thus acquired are important in the development of models for predicting photochemical effects in the stratosphere.

Vedder, James F.↗

Quantifying subsurface parameter and transport uncertainty using surrogate modelling and environmental tracers

Here, we combine physics-based groundwater reactive transport modelling with machine-learning techniques to quantify hydrogeological model and solute transport predictive uncertainties. We train an artificial neural network (ANN) on a dataset of groundwater hydraulic heads and 3 H concentrations generated using a high-fidelity groundwater reactive transport model. Using the trained ANN as a surrogate model to reproduce the input–output response of the high-fidelity reactive transport model, we quantify the posterior distributions of hydrogeological parameters and hydraulic forcing conditions using Markov chain Monte Carlo calibration against field observations of groundwater hydraulic heads and 3 H concentrations. We demonstrate the methodology with a model application that predicts Chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC-12) solute transport at a contaminated field site in Wyoming, United States. Our results show that including 3 H observations in the calibration dataset reduced the uncertainty in the estimated permeability field and infiltration rates, compared to calibration against hydraulic heads alone. However, predictive uncertainty quantification shows that CFC-12 transport predictions conditioned to the parameter posterior distributions cannot reproduce the field measurements. We found that calibrating the model to hydraulic head and 3 H observations results in groundwater mean ages that are too large to explain the observed CFC-12 concentrations. The coupling of the physics-based reactive transport model with the machine-learning surrogate model allows us to efficiently quantify model parameter and predictive uncertainties, which is typically computationally intractable using reactive transport models alone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Experimental Studies of the Distribution of Minor Constituents and Dynamic Processes in the Atmosphere

Minor constituents play an important role in atmospheric chemistry and serve as tracers in transport and mixing studies in tropospheric-stratospheric exchange processes. Measurements of trace gases are essential to an understanding of the mechanisms by which minor constituents originating in the troposphere, both naturally occurring and anthropogenic, reach the stratosphere. Many of these gases are sources of species directly involved in the chemistry of ozone depletion in the stratosphere and ozone generation in the troposphere. Some contribute to the warming of the atmosphere. Data on tracer distributions are important in the development of models for predicting photochemical effects in the stratosphere and troposphere. Data on atmospheric dynamics are important for the development of models for predicting the transport of photochemical species and for characterizing the nature of stratospheric motions.

Goodman, Jindra↗

Linking OH Variability to Observable Variables, Meteorology and Transport

The hydroxyl radical (OH) plays a vital role in tropospheric chemistry, as it provides the dominant sink for a multitude of pollutants and climate-relevant gases such as methane. Observational constraints on the global distribution and temporal variability of OH are limited, and models simulate a wide range of OH distributions. While OH itself has a short atmospheric lifetime, OH is photochemically coupled to longer-lived species that undergo atmospheric transport. Here, we investigate how much of the OH variability within and between models can be explained by differences in observable species to develop diagnostics for OH differences. We find that NO 2 and water vapor together explain much of the spatial and temporal variability in simulated OH, and we use satellite observations to identify biases in these variables. The OH response to ENSO also differs between models, and we investigate potential causes of these differences such as differences in convection or lightning NOx. We also explore the potential of idealized tracers to represent the OH distribution. Within a single model, meteorological variables such as humidity and idealized tracers of transport can explain a significant portion of the OH spatial variability. We use a Gradient Boosted Regression Trees, a type of machine learning, to account for non-linear relationships between OH and the input variables.

Meteorology↗