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At least 127 records · Page 7

Taxi-Out Time Prediction for Departures at Charlotte Airport Using Machine Learning Techniques

Predicting the taxi-out times of departures accurately is important for improving airport efficiency and takeoff time predictability. In this paper, we attempt to apply machine learning techniques to actual traffic data at Charlotte Douglas International Airport for taxi-out time prediction. To find the key factors affecting aircraft taxi times, surface surveillance data is first analyzed. From this data analysis, several variables, including terminal concourse, spot, runway, departure fix and weight class, are selected for taxi time prediction. Then, various machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural networks model are applied to actual flight data. Different traffic flow and weather conditions at Charlotte airport are also taken into account for more accurate prediction. The taxi-out time prediction results show that linear regression and random forest techniques can provide the most accurate prediction in terms of root-mean-square errors. We also discuss the operational complexity and uncertainties that make it difficult to predict the taxi times accurately.

Safe and efficient surface operations↗

Predicting Airspace Capacity Impacts Using the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation

Convective weather is currently the largest contributor to air traffic delays in the United States. In order to make effective traffic flow management decisions to mitigate these delays, weather forecasts must be made as early and as accurately as possible. A forecast product that could be used to mitigate convective weather impacts is the Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation. This product provides forecasts of cloud water content and convective top heights at 0- to 8-hour look-ahead times. The objective of this study was to examine a method of predicting the impact of convective weather on air traffic sector capacities using these forecasts. Polygons representing forecast convective weather were overlaid at multiple flight levels on a sector map to calculate the fraction of each sector covered by weather. The fractional volume coverage was used as the primary metric to determine convection s impact on sectors. Results reveal that the forecasts can be used to predict the probability and magnitude of weather impacts on sector capacity up to eight hours in advance.

Russell, Carl↗

A Final Approach Trajectory Model for Current Operations

Predicting accurate trajectories with limited intent information is a challenge faced by air traffic management decision support tools in operation today. One such tool is the FAA's Terminal Proximity Alert system which is intended to assist controllers in maintaining safe separation of arrival aircraft during final approach. In an effort to improve the performance of such tools, two final approach trajectory models are proposed; one based on polynomial interpolation, the other on the Fourier transform. These models were tested against actual traffic data and used to study effects of the key final approach trajectory modeling parameters of wind, aircraft type, and weight class, on trajectory prediction accuracy. Using only the limited intent data available to today's ATM system, both the polynomial interpolation and Fourier transform models showed improved trajectory prediction accuracy over a baseline dead reckoning model. Analysis of actual arrival traffic showed that this improved trajectory prediction accuracy leads to improved inter-arrival separation prediction accuracy for longer look ahead times. The difference in mean inter-arrival separation prediction error between the Fourier transform and dead reckoning models was 0.2 nmi for a look ahead time of 120 sec, a 33 percent improvement, with a corresponding 32 percent improvement in standard deviation.

Gong, Chester↗

Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making

Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately forecast the severity and the location of the storm cells several hours into the future when compared with observation data, there has been a growing interest in probabilistic description of convective weather. The classical approach for generating uncertainty bounds consists of integrating the state equations and covariance propagation equations forward in time. This step is readily recognized as the process update step of the Kalman Filter algorithm. The second well known method, known as the Monte Carlo method, consists of generating output samples by driving the forecast algorithm with input samples selected from distributions. The statistical properties of the distributions of the output samples are then used for defining the uncertainty bounds of the output variables. This method is computationally expensive for a complex model compared to the covariance propagation method. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that a complex non-linear model can be easily handled. Recently, a few different methods for probabilistic forecasting have appeared in the literature. A method for computing probability of convection in a region using forecast data is described in Ref. 5. Probability at a grid location is computed as the fraction of grid points, within a box of specified dimensions around the grid location, with forecast convection precipitation exceeding a specified threshold. The main limitation of this method is that the results are dependent on the chosen dimensions of the box. The examples presented Ref. 5 show that this process is equivalent to low-pass filtering of the forecast data with a finite support spatial filter. References 6 and 7 describe the technique for computing percentage coverage within a 92 x 92 square-kilometer box and assigning the value to the center 4 x 4 square-kilometer box. This technique is same as that described in Ref. 5. Characterizing the forecast, following the process described in Refs. 5 through 7, in terms of percentage coverage or confidence level is notionally sound compared to characterizing in terms of probabilities because the probability of the forecast being correct can only be determined using actual observations. References 5 through 7 only use the forecast data and not the observations. The method for computing the probability of detection, false alarm ratio and several forecast quality metrics (Skill Scores) using both the forecast and observation data are given in Ref. 2. This paper extends the statistical verification method in Ref. 2 to determine co-occurrence probabilities. The method consists of computing the probability that a severe weather cell (grid location) is detected in the observation data in the neighborhood of the severe weather cell in the forecast data. Probabilities of occurrence at the grid location and in its neighborhood with higher severity, and with lower severity in the observation data compared to that in the forecast data are examined. The method proposed in Refs. 5 through 7 is used for computing the probability that a certain number of cells in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in the forecast data are seen as severe weather cells in the observation data. Finally, the probability of existence of gaps in the observation data in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in forecast data is computed. Gaps are defined as openings between severe weather cells through which an aircraft can safely fly to its intended destination. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section II summarizes the statistical verification method described in Ref. 2. The extension of this method for computing the co-occurrence probabilities in discussed in Section HI. Numerical examples using NCWF forecast data and NCWD observation data are presented in Section III to elucidate the characteristics of the co-occurrence probabilities. This section also discusses the procedure for computing throbabilities that the severity of convection in the observation data will be higher or lower in the neighborhood of grid locations compared to that indicated at the grid locations in the forecast data. The probability of coverage of neighborhood grid cells is also described via examples in this section. Section IV discusses the gap detection algorithm and presents a numerical example to illustrate the method. The locations of the detected gaps in the observation data are used along with the locations of convective weather cells in the forecast data to determine the probability of existence of gaps in the neighborhood of these cells. Finally, the paper is concluded in Section V.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

Comparison of Predictive Modeling Methods of Aircraft Landing Speed

Expected increases in air traffic demand have stimulated the development of air traffic control tools intended to assist the air traffic controller in accurately and precisely spacing aircraft landing at congested airports. Such tools will require an accurate landing-speed prediction to increase throughput while decreasing necessary controller interventions for avoiding separation violations. There are many practical challenges to developing an accurate landing-speed model that has acceptable prediction errors. This paper discusses the development of a near-term implementation, using readily available information, to estimate/model final approach speed from the top of the descent phase of flight to the landing runway. As a first approach, all variables found to contribute directly to the landing-speed prediction model are used to build a multi-regression technique of the response surface equation (RSE). Data obtained from operations of a major airlines for a passenger transport aircraft type to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport are used to predict the landing speed. The approach was promising because it decreased the standard deviation of the landing-speed error prediction by at least 18% from the standard deviation of the baseline error, depending on the gust condition at the airport. However, when the number of variables is reduced to the most likely obtainable at other major airports, the RSE model shows little improvement over the existing methods. Consequently, a neural network that relies on a nonlinear regression technique is utilized as an alternative modeling approach. For the reduced number of variables cases, the standard deviation of the neural network models errors represent over 5% reduction compared to the RSE model errors, and at least 10% reduction over the baseline predicted landing-speed error standard deviation. Overall, the constructed models predict the landing-speed more accurately and precisely than the current state-of-the-art.

Diallo, Ousmane H.↗

Analysis of Air Traffic Track Data with the AutoBayes Synthesis System

The Next Generation Air Traffic System (NGATS) is aiming to provide substantial computer support for the air traffic controllers. Algorithms for the accurate prediction of aircraft movements are of central importance for such software systems but trajectory prediction has to work reliably in the presence of unknown parameters and uncertainties. We are using the AutoBayes program synthesis system to generate customized data analysis algorithms that process large sets of aircraft radar track data in order to estimate parameters and uncertainties. In this paper, we present, how the tasks of finding structure in track data, estimation of important parameters in climb trajectories, and the detection of continuous descent approaches can be accomplished with compact task-specific AutoBayes specifications. We present an overview of the AutoBayes architecture and describe, how its schema-based approach generates customized analysis algorithms, documented C/C++ code, and detailed mathematical derivations. Results of experiments with actual air traffic control data are discussed.

Schumann, Johann Martin Philip↗

An Architectural Concept for Intrusion Tolerance in Air Traffic Networks

The goal of an intrusion tolerant network is to continue to provide predictable and reliable communication in the presence of a limited num ber of compromised network components. The behavior of a compromised network component ranges from a node that no longer responds to a nod e that is under the control of a malicious entity that is actively tr ying to cause other nodes to fail. Most current data communication ne tworks do not include support for tolerating unconstrained misbehavio r of components in the network. However, the fault tolerance communit y has developed protocols that provide both predictable and reliable communication in the presence of the worst possible behavior of a limited number of nodes in the system. One may view a malicious entity in a communication network as a node that has failed and is behaving in an arbitrary manner. NASA/Langley Research Center has developed one such fault-tolerant computing platform called SPIDER (Scalable Proces sor-Independent Design for Electromagnetic Resilience). The protocols and interconnection mechanisms of SPIDER may be adapted to large-sca le, distributed communication networks such as would be required for future Air Traffic Management systems. The predictability and reliabi lity guarantees provided by the SPIDER protocols have been formally v erified. This analysis can be readily adapted to similar network stru ctures.

Maddalon, Jeffrey M.↗

Flight Test Results: CTAS Cruise/Descent Trajectory Prediction Accuracy for En route ATC Advisories

The Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS), under development at NASA Ames Research Center, is designed to assist controllers with the management and control of air traffic transitioning to/from congested airspace. This paper focuses on the transition from the en route environment, to high-density terminal airspace, under a time-based arrival-metering constraint. Two flight tests were conducted at the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) to study trajectory-prediction accuracy, the key to accurate Decision Support Tool advisories such as conflict detection/resolution and fuel-efficient metering conformance. In collaboration with NASA Langley Research Center, these test were part of an overall effort to research systems and procedures for the integration of CTAS and flight management systems (FMS). The Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle Boeing 737 airplane flew a combined total of 58 cruise-arrival trajectory runs while following CTAS clearance advisories. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared to CTAS and FMS predictions to measure trajectory-prediction accuracy and identify the primary sources of error for both. The research airplane was used to evaluate several levels of cockpit automation ranging from conventional avionics to a performance-based vertical navigation (VNAV) FMS. Trajectory prediction accuracy was analyzed with respect to both ARTCC radar tracking and GPS-based aircraft measurements. This paper presents detailed results describing the trajectory accuracy and error sources. Although differences were found in both accuracy and error sources, CTAS accuracy was comparable to the FMS in terms of both meter-fix arrival-time performance (in support of metering) and 4D-trajectory prediction (key to conflict prediction). Overall arrival time errors (mean plus standard deviation) were measured to be approximately 24 seconds during the first flight test (23 runs) and 15 seconds during the second flight test (25 runs). The major source of error during these tests was found to be the predicted winds aloft used by CTAS. Position and velocity estimates of the airplane provided to CTAS by the ATC Host radar tracker were found to be a relatively insignificant error source for the trajectory conditions evaluated. Airplane performance modeling errors within CTAS were found to not significantly affect arrival time errors when the constrained descent procedures were used. The most significant effect related to the flight guidance was observed to be the cross-track and turn-overshoot errors associated with conventional VOR guidance. Lateral navigation (LNAV) guidance significantly reduced both the cross-track and turn-overshoot error. Pilot procedures and VNAV guidance were found to significantly reduce the vertical profile errors associated with atmospheric and aircraft performance model errors.

Green, S.↗

Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2): Integrated Arrival/Departure/Surface (IADS) System Demonstration, Technology Transfer Document Summary (ReadMe)

Airspace Technology Demonstration - 2 (ATD-2) is part of NASA's Airspace Technology Demonstrations (ATD) Project under its Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP). ATD-2 is a multi-year research and development effort to improve the predictability and the operational efficiency of the air traffic system in metroplex environments, through the enhancement, development, and integration of the nation's most advanced and sophisticated arrival, departure, and surface prediction, scheduling, and management systems. In order to ensure that the products of this knowledge and technology transfer are relevant and useful, NASA has created strong partnerships with the FAA and key industry stakeholders. This summary document and accompanying artifacts satisfy the first of three Research Transition Products (RTPs) defined in the IADS Research Transition Team (RTT) Plan. This transfer consists of NASA's ATD-2 Phase 1 Baseline IADS System capabilities.

IADS↗

TSAFE Interface Control Document v 2.0

This document specifies the data interface for TSAFE, the Tactical Separation-Assured Flight Environment. TSAFE is a research prototype of a software application program for alerting air traffic controllers to imminent conflicts in enroute airspace. It is intended for Air Route Traffic Control Centers ("Centers") in the U.S. National Airspace System. It predicts trajectories for approximately 3 minutes into the future, searches for conflicts, and sends data about predicted conflicts to the client, which uses the data to alert an air traffic controller of conflicts. TSAFE itself does not provide a graphical user interface.

Paielli, Russell A.↗

Experimental Performance of a Genetic Algorithm for Airborne Strategic Conflict Resolution

The Autonomous Operations Planner, a research prototype flight-deck decision support tool to enable airborne self-separation, uses a pattern-based genetic algorithm to resolve predicted conflicts between the ownship and traffic aircraft. Conflicts are resolved by modifying the active route within the ownship s flight management system according to a predefined set of maneuver pattern templates. The performance of this pattern-based genetic algorithm was evaluated in the context of batch-mode Monte Carlo simulations running over 3600 flight hours of autonomous aircraft in en-route airspace under conditions ranging from typical current traffic densities to several times that level. Encountering over 8900 conflicts during two simulation experiments, the genetic algorithm was able to resolve all but three conflicts, while maintaining a required time of arrival constraint for most aircraft. Actual elapsed running time for the algorithm was consistent with conflict resolution in real time. The paper presents details of the genetic algorithm s design, along with mathematical models of the algorithm s performance and observations regarding the effectiveness of using complimentary maneuver patterns when multiple resolutions by the same aircraft were required.

Karr, David A.↗

Experimental Performance of a Genetic Algorithm for Airborne Strategic Conflict Resolution

The Autonomous Operations Planner, a research prototype flight-deck decision support tool to enable airborne self-separation, uses a pattern-based genetic algorithm to resolve predicted conflicts between the ownship and traffic aircraft. Conflicts are resolved by modifying the active route within the ownship's flight management system according to a predefined set of maneuver pattern templates. The performance of this pattern-based genetic algorithm was evaluated in the context of batch-mode Monte Carlo simulations running over 3600 flight hours of autonomous aircraft in en-route airspace under conditions ranging from typical current traffic densities to several times that level. Encountering over 8900 conflicts during two simulation experiments, the genetic algorithm was able to resolve all but three conflicts, while maintaining a required time of arrival constraint for most aircraft. Actual elapsed running time for the algorithm was consistent with conflict resolution in real time. The paper presents details of the genetic algorithm's design, along with mathematical models of the algorithm's performance and observations regarding the effectiveness of using complimentary maneuver patterns when multiple resolutions by the same aircraft were required.

Karr, David A.↗

Assessing the Impact of Operational Constraints on the Near-Term Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management Supported Market

An economic impact market analysis was conducted for 16 leading sectors of commercial Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) applications predicted to be enabled by 2020 through the NASA UAS Traffic Management (UTM) program. Subject matter experts from seven industries were interviewed to validate concept of operations (ConOps) and market adoption assumptions for each sector. The market analysis was used to estimate direct economic impacts for each sector including serviceable addressable market, capital investment, revenue recovery potential, and operations cost savings. The resultant economic picture distinguishes the agricultural, pipeline and railroad inspection, construction, and maritime sectors of the nascent commercial UAS industry as providing the highest potential economic value in the United States. Sensitivity studies characterized the variability of select UAS sectors economic value to key regulatory or UTM ConOps requirements such as weight, altitude, and flight over populated area constraints. Takeaways from the analysis inform the validation of UTM requirements, technologies and timetables from a commercial market need and value viewpoint. This work concluded in August 2015 and reflects the state of the UAS industry and market projections at that time.

Air Traffic Management↗

Evaluation of Approval Request 47; Call for Release Procedures for Charlotte Douglas International Airport

NASA is collaborating with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and aviation industry partners to develop and demonstrate new concepts and technologies for Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) traffic management capabilities under the Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) project. One of the goals of the IADS capabilities in the ATD-2 project is to increase predictability and throughput of airspace operations by improving Traffic Management Initiative (TMI) compliance. This paper focuses on the Approval Request (APREQ) procedures developed for the ATD-2 project between the Air Traffic Control (ATC) Tower at Charlotte Douglas International Airport and Washington Center. In March 2017, NASA conducted a Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) simulation to evaluate the operational procedures and information requirements for the APREQ procedures in the ATD-2 IADS system between ATC Tower and Center. The findings from the HITL are used to compare ATD-2 APREQ procedures with information about current day APREQ procedures.

Stevens, Lindsay↗

Evaluation of Approval Request/Call for Release Coordination Procedures for Charlotte Douglas International Airport

NASA is collaborating with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and aviation industry partners to develop and demonstrate new concepts and technologies for Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) traffic management capabilities under the Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) project. One of the goals of the IADS capabilities in the ATD-2 project is to increase predictability and throughput of airspace operations by improving Traffic Management Initiative (TMI) compliance. This paper focuses on the Approval Request (APREQ) procedures developed for the ATD-2 project between the Air Traffic Control (ATC) Tower at Charlotte Douglas International Airport and Washington Center. In March 2017, NASA conducted a Human-in-the-Loop (HITL) simulation to evaluate the operational procedures and information requirements for the APREQ procedures in the ATD-2 IADS system between ATC Tower and Center. The findings from the HITL are used to compare ATD-2 APREQ procedures with information about current day APREQ procedures.

APREQ↗

Machine Learning based Aircraft Performance Model Estimation for Trajectory Prediction

The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.

Aida Sharif Rohani↗

Dynamically Evolving Sectors for Convective Weather Impact

A new strategy for altering existing sector boundaries in response to blocking convective weather is presented. This method seeks to improve the reduced capacity of sectors directly affected by weather by moving boundaries in a direction that offers the greatest capacity improvement. The boundary deformations are shared by neighboring sectors within the region in a manner that preserves their shapes and sizes as much as possible. This reduces the controller workload involved with learning new sector designs. The algorithm that produces the altered sectors is based on a force-deflection mesh model that needs only nominal traffic patterns and the shape of the blocking weather for input. It does not require weather-affected traffic patterns that would have to be predicted by simulation. When compared to an existing optimal sector design method, the sectors produced by the new algorithm are more similar to the original sector shapes, resulting in sectors that may be more suitable for operational use because the change is not as drastic. Also, preliminary results show that this method produces sectors that can equitably distribute the workload of rerouted weather-affected traffic throughout the region where inclement weather is present. This is demonstrated by sector aircraft count distributions of simulated traffic in weather-affected regions.

Drew, Michael C.↗

Formal Verification of Air Traffic Conflict Prevention Bands Algorithms

In air traffic management, a pairwise conflict is a predicted loss of separation between two aircraft, referred to as the ownship and the intruder. A conflict prevention bands system computes ranges of maneuvers for the ownship that characterize regions in the airspace that are either conflict-free or 'don't go' zones that the ownship has to avoid. Conflict prevention bands are surprisingly difficult to define and analyze. Errors in the calculation of prevention bands may result in incorrect separation assurance information being displayed to pilots or air traffic controllers. This paper presents provably correct 3-dimensional prevention bands algorithms for ranges of track angle; ground speed, and vertical speed maneuvers. The algorithms have been mechanically verified in the Prototype Verification System (PVS). The verification presented in this paper extends in a non-trivial way that of previously published 2-dimensional algorithms.

Narkawicz, Anthony J.↗