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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7

Transition core modeling for extended enrichment, accident tolerant fuel using PARCS/Polaris

Current plans and efforts from reactor operators and vendors to include extended enrichment (EE) and accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) in current reactor fleets motivate the study of these changes in reactor physics analysis. This work uses the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission core simulator PARCS to do the core calculation and SCALE Polaris lattice physics code to generate the required homogenized, few-group constants. The lattice model used is based on the GE-14 10x10 assemblies with UO{sub 2} fuels. Both nominal core and transition core are studied in this work, and both cores use GE-14 10x10 assemblies with UO{sub 2} fuel. The nominal core uses regular UO{sub 2} fuel with a maximum enrichment of 5 wt % and ZIRC-2 cladding. The ATF transition core uses FeCrAl cladding and regular UO{sub 2} fuel, while the EE-ATF transition core uses FeCrAl cladding with UO{sub 2} fuel with 8 max wt % enrichment. The accuracy presented in the colorset models verified the capability of the PARCS/Polaris procedures for the transition core analysis. For the whole core calculation, the ATF and EE-ATF transition core models were made in addition to the nominal core model. The core parameters to study are the core power distribution and power peaking factor, doppler temperature coefficients, and control rod worth at cold zero power and hot full power. Comparing the core parameters of the transition cores with the nominal core in PARCS, the results suggest that there is no unexpected outcome for the implementation of ATF and EE fuels. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Multi-modal Energy-optimal Trip Scheduling in Real-time (METS-R) for Transportation Hubs (Final Report)

This report summarizes the work performed under the award number EE0008524. The project develops the Multi-modal Energy-optimal Trip Scheduling in Real-time (METS-R) platform as the next-generation transportation solution based on autonomous electric vehicles (AEV) serving passenger trips from and to urban transportation hubs, to substantially reduce transportation energy consumption. Extensive data collection and analyses were first conducted to understand the demand patterns and energy consumption of hub-based on-road trips. Then, a data-driven framework that consists of an analytical module and a simulation module was proposed. For the analytical module, five planning + operation tools were developed to support the planning and energy-efficient operations of urban AEV services: the charging station planning that robotically allocates charging supplies based on the stationary charging demand distribution; the transit planning and demand adaptive scheduling model that efficiently generates\ candidate transit routes from hubs to other places and dynamically adjusts the transit time table to fit the current demand; the online energy-efficient routing that learns the energy-optimal paths from observations of link-level energy consumption in real-time; the hub-based ridesharing that matches trip requests together with account for the uncertainty of future trip demand and vehicle supply; and finally, the integrated demand prediction and anomaly detection pipeline that leverages the flight/train time table and support other planning/operation tools. To demonstrate the performance of these tools, a scalable high-performance agent-based simulator was built. We divided the urban space into multiple service zones where each zone was considered as an agent for passenger generation and vehicle charging. Two types of AEV agents were coded to model two types of mobility services: AEV taxi and AEV transit. For the AEV taxi, the team implemented the functions of pickup/drop-off passengers, energy-efficient routing, ridesharing, fleet rebalancing, and recharging. For the AEV bus, the team implemented the functions of demand-adaptive route scheduling, passenger boarding, and recharging. A high-performance computing framework was introduced to receive various profiling information (such as link energy updates, vehicle speed) from the simulator instances and communicate the operational commands back to the instances. The numerical experiments show that each of the proposed operational algorithms can reduce energy consumption and improve system efficiency. Furthermore, there exists the need to collectively consider multiple planning + operational strategies as multiple strategies can influence each other in terms of performance impacts. Recommendations for future work related to AEV planning and simulation are discussed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Effect of Airspace Characteristics on Urban Air Mobility Airspace Capacity

As interest in urban air mobility grows, increasingly high density traffic poses a challenge for the transition to safe, efficient, and timely operations. Hundreds of simultaneously demanded flights will need to share the same fleet, infrastructure, and constrained airspace. This paper investigates the feasibility of effectively managing high density traffic in congested urban environments by optimizing the design of airspace route structures. Demand estimations for the Dallas-Fort Worth and Los Angeles areas are used to evaluate potential improvements to airspace route design with the goal to accommodate the projected level of demand.

Urban Air Mobility↗

Effect of Airspace Characteristics on Urban Air Mobility Airspace Capacity

As interest in urban air mobility grows, increasingly high density traffic poses a challenge for the transition to safe, efficient, and timely operations. Hundreds of simultaneously demanded flights will need to share the same fleet, infrastructure, and constrained airspace. This paper investigates the feasibility of effectively managing high density traffic in congested urban environments by optimizing the design of airspace route structures. Demand estimations for the Dallas-Fort Worth and Los Angeles areas are used to evaluate potential improvements to airspace route design with the goal to accommodate the projected level of demand.

Urban Air Mobility↗

The Energy Transition: Advanced Nuclear Needed but Address Climate Vulnerabilities Now

The term “Energy Transition” is an attempt to capture an elaborate set of activities related to the modernization and decarbonization of energy grids. Performed concurrently and often in an ad hoc manner across local, state, regional and national boundaries, it is bringing chaos to what should arguably be one of the most conservatively managed of all critical infrastructure sectors. What’s more, with climate change producing an increasing tempo of extreme events, confidence in the intended resilient and redundant structure of the electric grids is likely to ebb. Even without these climate induced stressors, the nation’s electric grid was built for an earlier century. In addition to a drive towards greater efficiency via digitization and a continuing price decline in distributed energy resources (DERs), one could argue that climate change concerns are the primary driver of the energy transition. Non-CO2 emitting generation sources like wind and solar have become an important part of the overall generation fleet, albeit ones that cannot be counted upon to provide dispatchable power. Current projections indicate deployment of even larger percentages of DERs in coming years. Until far better storage capabilities arrive, the variability of wind and solar, inconsistent performance of traditional thermal generation plants, and energy delivery failures associated with natural gas pipelines will reinforce mounting reliability concerns. This pertains to both electric transmission and distribution. The recent shuttering of nuclear power plants in Germany, Japan, the US and elsewhere are also putting more downward pressure on dispatchable generation. Russia’s attack on Ukraine has roiled energy markets worldwide and forced some countries to return to coal as a primary fuel. In view circumstances such as these, it is essential that significant changes be made to policies and planning criteria, and to the standards and code on which they are based. Given the accelerating pace of extreme weather events, this needs to occur as soon as possible.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Measuring Flexibility through Reduction Potential

As electrical loads, electric vehicles (EVs) are distinguished in many cases by their substantial flexibility. Harnessing this flexibility, however, requires a precise characterization of its timing and degree. Current approaches to flexibility characterization tend to be limited either by the complexity of their representation or their inability to capture aggregate flexibility across multiple vehicles. In this paper, we present the reduction potential matrix, a novel metric capturing fleet-level EV load flexibility while being both straightforward to calculate and intuitive to interpret. We use the metric to quantify flexibility for two operationally distinct commercial groups: freight vehicles and transit buses. While we find that both vehicle groups have substantial flexibility, its timing, magnitude, and duration varies across the groups. We describe how this variability translates into variation in the each group's role as a grid resource, and conclude with a discussion of how system planners, fleet operators, and other stakeholders can use the novel metric to cultivate symbiosis between vehicles and the grid.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Analysis of Automated Transit Network Systems with Battery-Electric Vehicles in Automated Mobility Districts: Preprint

The paper provides an overview of the insights and findings of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) ongoing research on the implementation of automated mobility districts (AMDs). AMD is a term coined by NREL to describe a geographically defined district or major activity center located in a dense urban setting with mobility applications provided by automated/autonomous vehicle (AV) systems spanning internal circulation and first-mile/last-mile connections to regional transportation hubs. Research over the past five years has focused on understanding the evolution of AMDs, beginning with demonstrations of automated shuttles prior to the pandemic, to more integrated on-demand mobility systems currently in initial stages of deployment. Initial insights and findings from earlier studies include the need for designation of a "jurisdiction having authority," a clear vision of a complete system to provide end-to-end mobility services, and the requisite intelligent infrastructure to complement AV technology. NREL's most recent Phase III research investigates station boarding/alighting (curb) issues, the full electrification of fleets, and the need for a systems engineering methodology (SEM) to properly analyze the complexities resulting from the convergence of automation, on-demand mobility, and electrification of the transit systems within the AMD. The paper reviews the findings of AMD research conducted during Phase I, II, and III, with special emphasis on Phase III results with respect to a descriptive example of the proposed SEM when a "digital twin" analytical model is used to simulate the transport fleet's battery-electric vehicle miles of travel and associated duty cycles through a rigorous analytical assessment with a comprehensive modeling process.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Robust Dissimilar Metal Friction Welded Spool for Enhanced Capability for Steam Power Components (Final Program Report)

This project successfully demonstrated the feasibility and advantages of producing durable, friction-welded dissimilar-metal spools, both with and without transition pieces, as well as the use of advanced oxidation-protective coatings for steam power applications. The work encompassed the optimization and full-scale production of NFA tubing, overcoming manufacturing and processing challenges to achieve enhanced strength, creep, and fatigue properties validated by extensive microstructural characterization. Optimized welding techniques were developed and refined for joining dissimilar materials, resulting in defect-free welds optimized for both low- and high-pressure boiler circuits. Systematic evaluation of welding parameters, coupled with heat treatments, ensured reliable performance and minimized weld defects such as banding and cracking. Comprehensive mechanical and non-destructive testing, including tensile, bend, fatigue, and CT scanning, confirmed the superior integrity and durability of the friction-welded joints under representative service conditions. To address oxidation-related degradation, a range of protective alloy coatings—such as IN625, APMT, Duplex 2507, and FeCrAlY—were selected and evaluated for their ability to counteract oxide notch formation at dissimilar metal interfaces. These coatings demonstrated improved oxidation resistance and long-term stability under thermal cycling, thereby extending weld service life. Thermal cyclic testing and long-term studies captured the phase stability and diffusion behavior of coated and uncoated configurations. Validated models for low-cycle fatigue (LCF), creep, and thermal mechanical fatigue (TMF) were developed to predict component life and failure modes. These models confirmed that friction-welded configurations exhibited significantly enhanced performance compared to conventional gas-tungsten arc welding (GTAW), with up to 7× improvement in creep resistance and at least 2× enhancement in fatigue properties. The introduction of a tailored transition piece further reduced thermally induced strains, enhancing fatigue life. The results demonstrate a robust pathway for retrofitting existing steam fleet components and upgrading future equipment to deliver substantially improved cold-start cycling behavior and reduction of unplanned outages due to premature weld failures.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Building Environmental Justice and Equity into the Development of Critical Mineral Industries

The global transition toward low-carbon energy not only means an increase in demand for clean electricity and renewable resources, but also an increase in demand for the critical minerals (CMs) and rare earth elements (REEs) that these technologies rely upon. Indeed, low-carbon energy technologies, such as those used for wind turbines and electric vehicle motors, require significantly more lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, graphite, and other CMs than fossil-based energy technologies. The growing demand for new forms of low- carbon energy will necessitate a proportional scale-up of CM and REE extraction and processing. Presently, the majority of extraction and processing activities for CMs and REEs are concentrated in very few countries, primarily in China and the Global South. CM and REE supply chain activities conducted in or controlled by these countries are commonly associated with widespread and well- documented human rights abuses and environmental degradation. As a result of concerns related to supply chain security, worker welfare, and the overall need for additional sources of CMs and REEs, governments worldwide have begun to explore policy pathways for the development of new supply chains. The development of new supply chains for CMs and REEs re s a multifold opportunity to accelerate the global deployment of low-carbon energy fleets, reduce global carbon emissions, build political resilience—and also to enhance policy objectives of environmental justice and equity in the clean energy transition. Fulfilling these policy objectives requires energy producers to navigate a maze of global supply chain policies designed to shape and accelerate the growth of new markets. In the United States, for instance, President Biden recently implemented fiscal and trade policies that incentivize both domestic and global reliance on U.S.-produced CMs and REEs, leveraging key relationships in Asia and Europe to ensure the accelerated buildout of the U.S. supply chain. The Biden Administration’s framework also emphasizes that new supply chains for CMs, REEs, and other low-carbon energy pathways must generate benefits for marginalized and disadvantaged communities, build energy equity, and contribute to the Biden Administration’s vision of environmental justice. present CM and REE supply chains include several stages, including mining, processing, transport, utilization, and disposal, each of which involves different environmental justice considerations and potential injustices. This study explores how technical innovation, paired with responsible community engagement and empowerment, can help inform the development of energy equity and environmental justice at all stages of new supply chains. The study highlights these opportunities on a broad scale. We also lend a specific focus to research at the University of Wyoming School of Energy Resources that aims to guide the development of CM and REE industries in communities with high economic dependence on coal and other fossil fuel industries, identifying pathways to grow a U.S. domestic supply chain by producing CMs from coal, coal by-products, and coal waste streams. These production pathways represent a potential new supply for CMs across the U.S. and elsewhere, thereby enhancing national security and accelerating the widespread deployment of low-carbon energy technologies, while also generating alternative applications for remaining coal reserves and aiding in a just transition for rural energy-producing communities.

Gerace, Selena↗

Zero Emission Cargo Transport (ZECT) II Demonstration: South Coast Air Quality Management District (Final Report)

The South Coast Air Quality Management District (South Coast AQMD), California Air Resources Board (CARB) and Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) — the agencies responsible for preparing the State Implementation Plan required under the federal Clean Air Act — have agreed that attainment of federal air quality standards for the region will require a transition to the broad use of zero and near-zero emission energy sources in cars, trucks and other equipment. Accordingly, the 2012 South Coast AQMD Air Quality Management Plan, the SCAG 2012 Regional Transportation Plan, and the “Vision for Clean Air: A Framework for Air Quality and Climate Control Planning” all identify the need to immediately enact a phasing in of zero and near-zero emission technologies to meet air quality goals. In 2014, South Coast AQMD was awarded grant funding under the US Department of Energy Zero Emission Cargo Transport (ZECT) II Demonstration program to develop and demonstrate zero-emission drayage trucks for goods movement operations between the Port of Los Angeles (POLA) and Port of Long Beach (POLB) near dock rail yards and warehouses: 1) development and demonstration of zero-emission fuel cell range extended electric drayage trucks and 2) development and demonstration of hybrid electric drayage trucks. The purpose of this project was to accelerate deployment of zero emission cargo transport technologies to reduce harmful diesel emissions, petroleum consumption and greenhouse gases in the surrounding communities along the goods movement corridors that are impacted by heavy diesel traffic and the associated air pollution. Between 2014 – 2024, six ZECT II zero-emission fuel cell drayage truck platforms, including fuel cell range extended and CNG hybrid trucks, were successfully designed, developed, integrated, built, tested, and demonstrated with drayage fleet operators in transportation corridors within areas of the South Coast AQMD jurisdiction in Southern California such as in and around POLA and POLB. Portable hydrogen refueling was deployed to support the fuel cell vehicles. The project had real-time improvement with on-going debugging and optimizations while the vehicles were under demonstration. All platforms demonstrated sufficient or excess power, torque, and energy to support 82,000lbs Gross Vehicle Weight Rating and gradeability to perform their daily duty cycles. Collectively, the trucks drove over 23,000 miles during their respective demonstration phases. The ZECT II project was the first of its kind to demonstrate the commercial viability that supported the additional technology breakthroughs for Class 8 zero emission trucks and validations as well as the regulatory basis for all the zero-emission regulation that we know today, such as the Innovative Clean Transit regulation, Advanced Clean Trucks and Clean Fleet regulations.

08 HYDROGEN↗

An On-Demand Electric Transit Case Study of New Rochelle, New York

Here, this article characterizes the performance and ridership patterns of an on-demand transit (ODT) service utilizing lightweight electric vehicles (EVs) in New Rochelle, New York. Ridership sociodemographics, travel patterns (both temporal and spatiotemporal), and energy use from the service were explored using travel and survey data from September 2019 through December 2023. The ODT service was found to be used more by women (nearly 60%) and younger demographics (>65% under the age of 42), with peak use in the middle of the day and a grocery store as a top origin and destination. The service was utilized primarily for short trips (86% under 2 mi), with approximately one-third of riders using the ODT service to connect to a train or bus. The costs associated with fueling/charging were compared for different types of fleet vehicles, and the small, right-sized EVs were found to have annual charging costs that were roughly half of the refueling costs for conventional hybrid vans, and 24 times lower than a fleet of diesel buses. Evaluating the vehicle fleet and mapping current socio-spatial travel demand can inform system performance, guide service area development, and support future planning such as expansion to nearby communities and transit hubs. The findings in this case study suggest that on-demand electric transit may be a significant and growing space for advancing highly valued public mobility services. Public transport interventions that consider right-sized, electric, on-demand vehicles can help improve mobility access and reduce energy use and refueling costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A study on the impact of using a subchannel resolution for modeling of large break loss of coolant accidents

The nuclear industry is investigating the feasibility of transitioning from 18- to 24-month fuel cycles because of the positive impact it would have on the operational costs for the current fleet of light-water reactors. A challenge to making this change is the increased risk of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) due to the known potential for ceramic fuel to pulverize into fine particles at the higher discharge burnups. Previous work has been performed by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program to assess FFRD risk in high-burnup cores using the BISON fuel performance code and a coarse mesh thermal hydraulics (T/H) solution for a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) using the TRACE system T/H code. Because of the importance of the T/H solution for FFRD assessment, this study seeks to investigate the impact of using higher-fidelity subchannel techniques for modeling of the LOCA transient. CTF was used to model a subregion of a high-burnup core that was depleted by the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) multiphysics core simulator. Both coarse-mesh and pin-resolved models were created in CTF, and a consistent coarse-mesh TRACE model was also developed to allow for benchmarking the code results. Further, a large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) reflood transient was simulated using these three models, and results were compared. Results showed some consistent differences between the CTF and TRACE coarse models, including a higher peak cladding temperature (PCT) prediction in CTF and later quenching in CTF; however, the transient clad temperature behavior was similar, and these differences are likely due to post-critical heat flux heat transfer modeling differences and minimum film boiling temperature model differences. The pin-resolved results indicate that the PCT in the lumped model is often under-predicted by as much as 70 °C and that PCT occurs at a different location than the high-power pin in the assembly. The lumped model predicts a difference of 10 °C or less between the average and hot pins in the assembly, whereas the pin-resolved model predicts a range of over 100 °C. These results indicate that higher-fidelity T/H results may have an impact on predicted core behavior during LOCA, which may be important to consider when assessing FFRD risk.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A Stochastic Charging Station Deployment Model for Electrified Taxi Fleets in Coupled Urban Transportation and Power Distribution Networks

Metropolitansworldwide are increasingly adopting electric taxis (ET) to address concerns about transportation-related emissions. However, the widespread deployment of electric taxis presents challenges in terms of increased electricity demand and changing demand profiles. This transition impacts both the urban transportation network (TN) and the electricity power distribution network (PDN), highlighting the interdependence between these two systems. Here, in this paper, we propose a two-stage stochastic programming planning model that aims to optimize both the TN and PDN, enabling efficient deployment of charging stations and grid upgrades. Our model seeks to strike a balance between meeting ET drivers' charging preferences, minimizing the costs associated with infrastructure deployment and grid expansion, and harmonizing the coordination between the TN and PDN. Additionally, we explore the potential benefits of utilizing an autonomous ET fleet to enhance overall system performance.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Understanding Workforce Agility at NASA Kennedy Space Center

NASA leads the world in space research and provides other government agencies, educational institutions, and companies opportunities to explore, launch, and conduct research in and around space. NASA has 11 formal locations based around the United States, and each has different goals and objectives to help NASA meet its overall mission. 2004, President George Bush announced a new vision for the Space Exploration program. During his grand announcement, he discussed that the Space Shuttles would retire due to the 2003 Space Shuttle Columbia accident, where the crew and the space vehicle were lost. The Kennedy Space Center (KSC) would no longer manage the day-to-day operations of maintaining the US Space Shuttle fleet. Our NASA teams would continue working to finish the Space Shuttle program's mission to build the International Space Station. Afterward, NASA would transition to develop and test a new spacecraft, the Crew Exploration Vehicle. The third goal was to return to the moon by 2020 as the launching point for missions beyond, to get humans from lower Earth orbit to the moon and Mars. (Secretary, 2004) The KSC engineering workforce had to prepare to transition from Operational support of the Space Shuttle program to the design and development of over 50 subsystems for the future SLS and Orion Launch Systems at the Kennedy Space Center. These subsystems developed at the Kennedy Space Center Engineering Directorate followed a comprehensive design process that required several different product deliverables during various phases for each subsystem. (Schafer et al., 2013) What allowed these systems to be successful? What enabled NASA KSC to complete over 130 Artemis 1 Design Certification and System Acceptance Reviews, closing over 21,656 Requirements to deem the Artemis 1 rocket ready for launch? Little is known about the NASA engineering workforce agility characteristics that enabled the organization to transition from the Space Shuttle program that ended in 2011 and launch the Artemis Program's SLS rocket on November 16, 2022.

Workforce Agility↗

Demand Driven Cycamore Archetypes

Future nuclear fuel cycle options may present advantages over today’s once-through fuel cycle. Nuclear fuel cycle simulation tools assess the performance of those fuel cycles as well as the dynamics of long-term technology transitions. In many nuclear fuel cycle simulation tools, it has historically been the responsibility of the user to manually define facility deployment schemes and all facility parameters. While this is straightforward in simple fuel cycles, transitions from one fuel cycle to another can be more complex. In particular, deployment schemes for supportive fuel cycle facilities beyond the reactor become complex if the analyst desires to avoid gaps in the nuclear fuel and power supply chain during those transition scenarios. As nuclear fuel cycle analysis approaches questions regarding the feasibility and performance of the deployment schemes and technology choices during technology transition, automation of this historically manual process is necessary. The main objective of this work was to develop and demonstrate Cyclus automation capabilities toward key nuclear fuel cycle transition scenarios. While deploying reactors to meet power demand is trivial, and existed in the earliest versions of CYCLUS, automated, predictive deployment and decommissioning of other facilities is more complex. These include mining, milling, enrichment, fuel fabrication, reprocessing, and others. For example, a balanced closed fuel cycle may require ensuring that there is enough fast reactor fuel for their operation and may drive deployment of a fleet of light water reactors. This concern comprises the main challenge that drove the project effort. The Demand-Driven Cycamore Archetype project (NEUP-FY16-10512) aimed to develop CYCAMORE demand-driven deployment capabilities and thereby automate transition scenario definition. The developed software package, d3ploy, in the form of a CYCLUS Institution agent, deploys Facilities to meet the front-end and back-end demands of the fuel cycle. The University of South Carolina and the University of Illinois applied multiple algorithmic approaches to this challenge. This project developed an in situ demand-driven development schedule calculation through non-optimizing, deterministic-optimizing, and stochastic-optimizing algorithms as CYCLUS archetypes and demonstrated these new archetypes in program-supporting fuel cycle transition scenarios. Both objectives were achieved. This report documents the results and deliverables obtained toward these achievements in detail.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A New Chapter in Solar: Bifacial PV from Emerging Topic to Core Curriculum

Associated with the new edition of the bifacial PV book, this talk reviews the transition of bifacial PV from niche innovation to standard practice, including progress in modeling and performance evaluation, and ongoing challenges in reliability, new applications, and fleet repowering.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quantifying the regional stranded asset risks from new coal plants under 1.5 °C

Momentum to phase out unabated coal use is growing globally. This transition is critical to meeting the Paris climate goals but can potentially lead to large amounts of stranded assets, especially in regions with newer and growing coal fleets. Here we combine plant-level data with a global integrated assessment model to quantify changes in global stranded asset risks from coal-fired power plants across regions and over time. With new plant proposals, cancellations, and retirements over the past five years, global net committed emissions in 2030 from existing and planned coal plants declined by 3.3 GtCO 2 (25%). While these emissions are now roughly in line with initial Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, they remain far off track from longer-term climate goals. Progress made in 2021 towards no new coal can potentially avoid a 24% (503 GW) increase in capacity and a 55% ($520 billion) increase in stranded assets under 1.5 °C. Stranded asset risks fall disproportionately on emerging Asian economies with newer and growing coal fleets. Recent no new coal commitments from major coal financers can potentially reduce stranding of international investments by over 50%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reassessing methods to close the nuclear fuel cycle

This paper presents the major takeaways from studies conducted over several years that were focused on transitioning the U.S. nuclear infrastructure from the current once-through fuel cycle to one in which fuel is continuously recycled in fast reactors. Furthermore, these studies involved simulating and analyzing numerous example scenarios of fuel cycle transition with various assumptions on technology, policy, and material utilization strategies. Among the many findings, perhaps the most important is that under certain conditions, the use of high-assay low-enriched uranium to start up a fleet of fast reactors may be more favorable compared to using recycled Pu from thermal reactors since it is less constrained by other technologies and may even be more economical.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗