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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Full‐Waveform Simulation of Infrasound Propagation in the Atmosphere: A Case Study of the 2023 April 20 SpaceX Starship Explosion

Infrasound, low‐frequency sound below 20 Hz, has been a key technology to monitor explosion events in the atmosphere. The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear‐Test‐Ban Treaty Organization provides the means for continuous monitoring of infrasonic events worldwide. Infrasonic techniques for event location and size estimation can also complement other observational techniques for the detection and characterization of the entry of asteroids or large meteoroids. In this study, we describe the detection capability of IMS infrasound stations for an explosive event in the middle of the atmosphere. Full‐waveform simulations are performed with the specification of atmospheric conditions and incorporated into the event location and explosion yield estimation. We applied it to the 2023 April 20 SpaceX Starship explosion at 29 km altitude. Starship is a super heavy‐lift space vehicle constructed by SpaceX and known as the largest and most powerful rocket ever built. The Starship explosion created huge pressure disturbances in the atmosphere, and its infrasound was detected by the IMS arrays in North America between 2000 and 4000 km. Independent observational data and available ground‐truth information provide a rare opportunity to evaluate the monitoring capability of the IMS network for elevated sources in the atmosphere. We also demonstrate the capability of full‐waveform simulation for infrasound wavefield characterization and prediction to improve event location and yield estimation.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation and Uncertainty of Radioxenon Transport with a Mesoscale Model after the February 2013 Underground Test in North Korea

Abstract The transport of radioxenon released from the February 2013 underground nuclear weapons test in North Korea was analyzed at two receptors—one at the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty site Rn58 in Russia (400 km downwind) and a second at Rn38 in Japan (1000 km downwind). Transport was modeled with two ensembles of mesoscale simulations, one generated with varying initial and lateral boundary conditions taken from the Global Forecasting System uncertainty ensemble, and a second created from different parameterizations and surface conditions. The wind variability was similar for the two ensembles and consistent with observations at 925 mb (1 mb = 1 hPa) but not at the surface. Biases in calculated surface winds and the radioxenon concentration in the ensembles were attributed mainly to poor simulation of the sea breeze at both locations and mountain lee affects at Rn38 in Japan. These wind regimes affected the timing of the surface radioxenon plume at Rn58 and its duration at Rn38. Surface wind variability induced by terrain and land–sea contrast (the sea breeze) also had a significant effect on the surface winds and plume dynamics, including blocking of flow approaching elevated terrain near Vladivostok and the west side of Japan. Increased plume uncertainty was seen at night because of surface wind variability. Measured surface chemical variability was larger than found in the first European Tracer Experiment in central Europe. The study found that horizontal model resolution contributes to uncertainty but not as much as vertical resolution, boundary layer parameterizations, and assimilation of surface meteorological data near the receptor.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dense Seismic Array Study of a Legacy Underground Nuclear Test at the Nevada National Security Site

The complex postdetonation geologic structures that form after an underground nuclear explosion are difficult to constrain because increased heterogeneity around the damage zone affects seismic waves that propagate through the explosion site. Generally, a vertical rubble-filled structure known as a chimney is formed after an underground nuclear explosion that is composed of debris that falls into the subsurface cavity generated by the explosion. Compared with chimneys that collapse fully, leaving a surface crater, partially collapsed chimneys can have remnant subsurface cavities left in place above collapsed rubble. The 1964 nuclear test HADDOCK, conducted at the Nevada test site (now the Nevada National Security Site), formed a partially collapsed chimney with no surface crater. Understanding the subsurface structure of these features has significant national security applications, such as aiding the study of suspected underground nuclear explosions under a treaty verification. In this study, we investigated the subsurface architecture of the HADDOCK legacy nuclear test using hybrid 2D–3D active source seismic reflection and refraction data. The seismic data were acquired using 275 survey shots from the Seismic Hammer (a 13,000 kg weight drop) and 65 survey shots from a smaller accelerated weight drop, both recorded by ~1000 three-component 5 Hz geophones. First-arrival, P-wave tomographic modeling shows a low-velocity anomaly at ~200 m depth, likely an air-filled cavity caused by partial collapse of the rock column into the temporary postdetonation cavity. A high-velocity anomaly between 20 and 60 m depth represents spall-related compaction of the shallow alluvium. Hints of low velocities are also present near the burial depth (~364 m). The reflection seismic data show a prominent subhorizontal reflector at ~300 m depth, a short-curved reflector at ~200 m, and a high-amplitude reflector at ~50 m depth. Comparisons of the reflection sections to synthetic data and borehole stratigraphy suggest that these features correspond to the alluvium–tuff contact, the partial collapse cavity, and the spalled layer, respectively.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Applying Waveform Correlation to Reduce Seismic Analyst Workload Due to Repeating Mining Blasts

Agencies that monitor for underground nuclear tests are interested in techniques that automatically characterize mining blasts to reduce the human analyst effort required to produce high–quality event bulletins. Waveform correlation is effective in finding similar waveforms from repeating seismic events, including mining blasts. We report the results of an experiment to detect and identify mining blasts for two regions, Wyoming (U.S.A.) and Scandinavia, using waveform templates recorded by multiple International Monitoring System stations of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear–Test–Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) for up to 10 yr prior to the time of interest. We discuss approaches for template selection, threshold setting, and event detection that are specialized for characterizing mining blasts using a sparse, global network. We apply the approaches to one week of data for each of the two regions to evaluate the potential for establishing a set of standards for waveform correlation processing of mining blasts that can be generally applied to operational monitoring systems with a sparse network. Here, we compare candidate events detected with our processing methods to the Reviewed Event Bulletin of the International Data Centre to assess potential reduction in analyst workload.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Introduction to the Special Section on Seismoacoustics and Seismoacoustic Data Fusion

This special section of the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America provides a broad overview on recent advances to the understanding of the seismoacoustic wavefield through 19 articles. Leveraging multiphenomenology datasets is instrumental for the continued success of future planetary missions, nuclear test ban treaty verification, and natural hazard monitoring. Progress in our theoretical understanding of mechanical coupling, advancements in coupled-media wave modeling, and developments of efficient multitechnology inversion procedures are key to fully exploiting geophysical datasets on Earth and beyond. We begin by highlighting papers describing experimental setups and instrumentation, followed by characterization of natural and anthropogenic sources of interest, and ending in new open-access datasets. Finally, we conclude with an overview of challenges that remain as well as some potential directions for future investigation within the growing multidisciplinary field of seismoacoustics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inferring the Focal Depths of Small Earthquakes in Southern California Using Physics-Based Waveform Features

Determining the depths of small crustal earthquakes is challenging in many regions of the world, because most seismic networks are too sparse to resolve trade-offs between depth and origin time with conventional arrival-time methods. Precise and accurate depth estimation is important, because it can help seismologists discriminate between earthquakes and explosions, which is relevant to monitoring nuclear test ban treaties and producing earthquake catalogs that are uncontaminated by mining blasts. Here, we examine the depth sensitivity of several physics-based waveform features for ~8000 earthquakes in southern California that have well-resolved depths from arrival-time inversion. We focus on small earthquakes (2 < M L < 4) recorded at local distances (<150 km), for which depth estimation is especially challenging. We find that differential magnitudes (M w /M L –M c ) are positively correlated with focal depth, implying that coda wave excitation decreases with focal depth. We analyze a simple proxy for relative frequency content, Φ≡log 10 (M 0 )+3log 10 (f c ), and find that source spectra are preferentially enriched in high frequencies, or “blue-shifted,” as focal depth increases. Here, we also find that two spectral amplitude ratios Rg 0.5–2 Hz/Sg 0.5–8 Hz and Pg/Sg at 3–8 Hz decrease as focal depth increases. Using multilinear regression with these features as predictor variables, we develop models that can explain 11%–59% of the variance in depths within 10 subregions and 25% of the depth variance across southern California as a whole. We suggest that incorporating these features into a machine learning workflow could help resolve focal depths in regions that are poorly instrumented and lack large databases of well-located events. Some of the waveform features we evaluate in this study have previously been used as source discriminants, and our results imply that their effectiveness in discrimination is partially because explosions generally occur at shallower depths than earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long-Term Infrasound Sensor Calibration and Characterization

Previous testing has shown that infrasound sensors deployed in the field can exhibit notable deviations from their nominal, lab-based calibrations. These variations may be due to changes in environmental conditions, long-term sensor drift, or other unresolved features. In early 2018, we installed two identical infrasound elements with five infrasound sensors at each element (Chaparral M50A, Chaparral M64LN, CEA/Martec MB2005, CEA/Seismowave MB3a, and Hyperion IFS-5113A). These sensors were accepted or under consideration for use in the International Monitoring System network of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Each element had all sensors connected to a single digitizer and port to the atmosphere. We also recorded instrument enclosure air temperature and humidity and external air temperature. Using the MB2005 as the reference, we examine the relative sensor response (both magnitude and phase) as a function of time and frequency and compare it with quarterly laboratory calibrations and environmental conditions. Here, we find that the magnitude response for all sensors exhibits some variability in both the lab and field, with the amplitude variations often >5%. The field-based variations are more severe and occur on both long-term (months) and short-term (hours) timescales. Short-term variability correlates with changes in environmental conditions and is considerable (up to 25%) for the Chaparral M50A and noticeable (∼5%) for the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) MB3a. Long-term magnitude variability for the Chaparral M50A was up to 50% and does not clearly correlate with environmental conditions. The other sensors show some long-term magnitude offsets, but they have relatively stable responses in the conditions we examined. The MB3a also displays some frequency-dependent magnitude variability and shows a minor dependence on temperature. Phase estimates are stable and near zero for all sensors tested. These results strongly suggest sensor response and variability due to environmental conditions should be considered in future infrasound data interpretation and sensor selection and development.

Fee, David↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating High-Frequency Seismograms in Realistic Earth Models to Better Understand Source Discrimination Based on Differential Magnitudes ( M L− M c)

Discriminating low-yield underground nuclear explosions from small earthquakes is a key task in monitoring nuclear test ban treaties. P/S amplitude ratios have been an effective discriminant for moderate-sized events recorded at regional distances, but it is unclear if they are as effective in discriminating small seismic events recorded at local distances (<150 km). The difference between local magnitude (M L ) and coda duration magnitude (M c ) has been proposed as a new discriminant that may complement P/S amplitude ratios at local distances. Here, in this work, we calculate high-frequency (up to ∼4 Hz) synthetic seismograms at epicentral distances of 0–30 km in realistic models of the Salt Lake basin (Utah, United States) to better understand how variations in source type and depth affect M L −M c values. The Earth models incorporate simplified 1D and deterministic 3D structures, small-wavelength stochastic velocity perturbations, and surface topography. Coda waves are enhanced for the more complicated models compared to the base 1D model, but still underpredict observed durations by about a factor of two, which results in overprediction of amplitude to duration ratios (i.e., M L −M c values) for a near-surface explosion and a 7 km deep earthquake. For both source types, the predicted M L and M c values decrease as source depth increases, and M L −M c shows only minor variation with depth; however, M L −M c is on average ∼0.5 units smaller for explosions than earthquakes. This finding may imply that M L −M c has sensitivity to source type, in addition to being a depth discriminant, but more modeling is needed given the limitations of the current study. Future modeling should incorporate higher-frequency (≳5 Hz) simulations over a larger distance range (0–150 km), where M L and M c are commonly measured, while honoring low shear velocities (<300 m/s) near the surface and sampling a wider range of earthquake and explosion source mechanisms.

Hutchings, Sean J. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City,↗
DOE OSTI2020

2019 Hyperion 5313A and 5119A Infrasound Sensor Type Approval Evaluation

Sandia National Laboratories has tested and evaluated two variations of a new model of infrasound sensor, the Hyperion 5313A and 5119A. The purpose of this infrasound sensor evaluation is to measure the performance characteristics in such areas as power consumption, sensitivity, full scale, self-noise, dynamic range, response, passband, sensitivity variation due to changes in static pressure and temperature, and sensitivity to vertical acceleration. The Hyperion infrasound sensors are being evaluated for potential use in the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO).

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Applying Waveform Correlation to Mining Blasts Using a Global Sparse Network

Agencies that monitor for underground nuclear tests are interested in techniques that automatically characterize mining blasts to reduce the human analyst effort required to produce high-quality event bulletins. Waveform correlation is effective in finding similar waveforms from repeating seismic events, including mining blasts. We report the results of an experiment that uses waveform templates recorded by multiple International Monitoring System stations of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty for up to 10 years prior to detect and identify mining blasts that occur during single weeks of study. We discuss approaches for template selection, threshold setting, and event detection that are specialized for mining blasts and a sparse, global network. We apply the approaches to two different weeks of study for each of two geographic regions, Wyoming and Scandinavia, to evaluate the potential for establishing a set of standards for waveform correlation processing of mining blasts that can be effective for operational monitoring systems with a sparse network. We compare candidate events detected with our processing methods to the Reviewed Event Bulletin of the International Data Centre to develop an intuition about potential reduction in analyst workload.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Annual Assessment Reporting Process

On 11 August 1995, President Clinton announced that the United States intended to enter negotiations on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. To address concerns that the cessation of nuclear testing would introduce uncertainty about the efficacy of the U.S. nuclear deterrent, he also announced the concurrent establishment of six Safeguards as conditions of entry. Safeguard A prescribed “. . . a Science Based Stockpile Stewardship program to ensure a high level of confidence in the safety and reliability of nuclear weapons in the active stockpile.” Safeguard B required “The maintenance of modern nuclear laboratory facilities and programs in theoretical and exploratory nuclear technology which will attract, retain, and ensure . . . human scientific resources.” These two Safeguards led to the establishment of the physical and intellectual capabilities to sustain the Nation’s nuclear deterrent without nuclear testing.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2020

3D Crustal Tomography Model of Utah

The ability to accurately locate seismic events is necessary for treaty monitoring. When using techniques that rely on the comparison of observed and predicted travel times to obtain these locations, it is important that the estimated travel times and their estimated uncertainties are also accurate. The methodology of Ballard et al. (2016a) has been used in the past to generate an accurate 3D tomographic global model of compressional wave slowness (the SAndia LoS Alamos 3D tomography model, i.e. SALSA3D). To re-establish functionality and to broaden the capabilities of the method to local distances, we have applied the methodology of Ballard et al. (2016a) to local data in Utah. This report details the results of the initial model generated, including relocations performed using analyst picked mining events at West Ridge Mine and three ground-truth events at Bingham Mine. We were successfully able to generate a feasible tomography model that resulted in reasonable relocations of the mining events.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Epithermal Neutron Resonance Analysis Using a Compact D-T Generator

Nuclear material identification and isotopic composition analysis are important capabilities for safeguards and the verification of nuclear arms control and nonproliferation treaties. Epithermal neutron resonance imaging has been proposed for spent fuel assay measurements, and the development of a mobile neutron imaging system could provide such a tool for on-site applications. This technique is highly sensitive to isotopes of interest for safeguards applications (e.g. 235,238 U, 238,239,240 Pu) and yields unique transmission spectra for a target containing actinides and some mid- and high-Z elements. Paired with a position-sensitive neutron detector, such a system could provide spatial information of the target isotopic composition. Recent progress in the development of high intensity neutron sources could make mobile epithermal neutron imaging designs increasingly feasible to serve as a tool for nuclear inspectors. In this work, Monte Carlo (MC) simulations were performed to further optimize a previous design for an epithermal neutron resonance-based analysis apparatus using a D-T portable neutron generator. Additionally, experimental work is being performed to test the feasibility of this method. The MC simulations of moderation time distributions for different moderator compositions and thicknesses were measured to provide a multi-group correction for neutron time-of-flight energy reconstruction.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Applying Waveform Correlation to Mining Blasts Using a Global Sparse Network

Agencies that monitor for underground nuclear tests are interested in techniques that automatically characterize mining blasts to reduce the human analyst effort required to produce high-quality event bulletins. Waveform correlation is effective in finding similar waveforms from repeating seismic events, including mining blasts. We report the results of an experiment that uses waveform templates recorded by multiple International Monitoring System stations of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization for up to 10 years prior to the time period of interest to detect and identify mining blasts that occur during single weeks of study. We discuss approaches for template selection, threshold setting, and event detection that are specialized for mining blasts and a sparse, global network. We apply the approaches to two different weeks of study for each of two geographic regions, Wyoming and Scandinavia, to evaluate the potential for establishing a set of standards for waveform correlation processing of mining blasts that can be effective for operational monitoring systems with a sparse network. We compare candidate events detected with our processing methods to the Reviewed Event Bulletin of the International Data Centre to develop an intuition about potential reduction in analyst workload.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement Uncertainty in One-of-a-kind Experiments

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experimental measurement multiple times and calculate the measured value with experimental uncertainty by following well developed statistical procedures. For various reasons – cost, technical difficulty, international treaties, ethics of dealing with human or animal subjects, ecology - many important experiments and observations can not be repeated. Astronomy, earthquakes, hurricanes produce data from one-of-a-kind events. When information is not available in any other way, it should not be dismissed as qualitative, anecdotal evidence only. Analyzed in a mathematically rigorous way, it produces quantitative experimental data. Analysis of data from one-of-a-kind event differs from analysis of repeated experiments’ data. For repeated experiments, the experimental error includes a range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by detectors. They are independent. Repetitions of any experiment, as similar as achievable, always have built-in differences resulting in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. Measurement uncertainty depends on the measurement system only. Digital measurements have very small uncertainty, frequently smaller than the range of true experimental values resulting from built-in differences in the experiment repetitions. When data from one–of–a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty can be reported.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thinking the Other Unthinkable: Disarmament in North Korea and Beyond

The P5 have defined nuclear disarmament as both a process and an end state. Differences of view about the latter are sharp, bitter, and abiding. This has stripped the discussion about the former of much of its potential content and value. Where might we get, practically and conceptually, if we were to set aside for now questions about the ultimate feasibility and desirability of the long-term goal and focus instead on the process? Further, what if we were also to posit that there will be no “fundamental transformation” of the international political system of a kind that would make the nuclear-armed states, and their unarmed neighbors, unconcerned about the effectiveness of mechanisms for peace and security in a disarmed and disarming world? In this context, might it be possible to give states the confidence they would require to take more ambitious incremental steps on the disarmament pathway? How could such steps contribute to the relaxation of international tensions that the NPT itself describes as a critical enabler of disarmament? These questions motivate this timely and innovative new work by Toby Dalton and George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Their core objective is to “infuse needed realism into disarmament discussions.” Using North Korean disarmament as a test case, they explore a series of practical challenges and associated conceptual issues to frame a discussion of the possible disarming nucleararmed states. They begin by rightly noting that neither the advocates of the Ban treaty nor the advocates of North Korean disarmament have set our practical agendas for achieving their aims. They conclude that without an infusion of realism the “two polarized blocks” will continue to “stonewall and repel each other” and thus that “the risks of global nuclear disorder will grow.” This is the latest in the series of Livermore Papers begun in 2017 to stimulate the development of new strategic thought on emerging nuclear challenges. Conceptually, it is a follow-on to the inaugural Livermore Paper by Lewis Dunn on disarmament pathways. The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory or any of its sponsors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Imagery Applications for Advanced Event Analytics (WBS 24.3.1.3.3-IDC FY202 Final Project Report)

Accurate event locations and replicability of location analyses are essential for assessing the nature of an event, its context, ambient site conditions, and proximity to relevant facilities and infrastructure. Additionally, accurate event locations provide valuable information that reduce uncertainties, improve confidence in event analyses, and inform in-field verification activities. However, event location/relocation and replicability are difficult due to a number of factors, including spatially-sparse network coverage in some areas of the globe and variability in seismic data processing. This team proposed that the incorporation of high-fidelity imagery as a data backbone to the analytical assessment of a suspected underground explosion and/or an advanced seismic event bulletin produced by the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) could reduce uncertainties and improve confidence in analyses. Specifically, temporally-separated images can reduce uncertainty by identifying areas where change has occurred (e.g., building construction or demolition, road or facilities improvements). The primary goal of this project was to develop an automated geospatial processing script for imagery change detection to better reflect needs of the technical community (including the IDC) and to make the use of such a tool accessible in a variety of settings across platforms. Technical experts at Los Alamos National Laboratory successfully built GAIA: the Geospatial Automated Imagery Analysis tool, to fill this need. GAIA combines five tool components to produce orthorectified time separated imagery and imagery change detection maps. Our toolkit (1) reduces error by providing a standardized workflow for image analyses and (2) significantly reduces processing time from between 7 and 24+ hours to approximately 5 minutes. Technical experts at Sandia National Laboratories supported GAIA via beta-testing and by introducing a web-based system approach for increased applicability. To test the function, performance, broad application, and ease-of-use of GAIA, we applied it to four separate test cases. The results of this preliminary investigation show promise in reducing uncertainty in seismic event locations: if satellite imagery can show regions where operations that produce seismic activity likely occurred, then pursuing imagery to locate epicenters of seismic nuclear events could reduce the time needed to find the true epicenter location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗