Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “trend estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1978

Control-surface hinge-moment calculations for a high-aspect-ratio supercritical wing

The hinge moments, at selected flight conditions, resulting from deflecting two trailing edge control surfaces (one inboard and one midspan) on a high aspect ratio, swept, fuel conservative wing with a supercritical airfoil are estimated. Hinge moment results obtained from procedures which employ a recently developed transonic analysis are given. In this procedure a three dimensional inviscid transonic aerodynamics computer program is combined with a two dimensional turbulent boundary layer program in order to obtain an interacted solution. These results indicate that trends of the estimated hinge moment as a function of deflection angle are similar to those from experimental hinge moment measurements made on wind tunnel models with swept supercritical wings tested at similar values of free stream Mach number and angle of attack.

Perry, B., III↗
NASA NTRS1982

Analytical model of jet shielding

An analytical model of the shielding of a stationary point noise source by a cylindrical jet is developed. The directivity function is derived which estimates the normalized sound pressure level at a far field receiver. The shielding model is compared to experimental data for a point noise source impinging on an unheated air jet and on a simulated hot air jet. The model compares favorably to measured shielding at receiver locations away from the jet axis. The trend of the estimated shielding diverges from the measured data as the jet axis is approached. Refinement of the model is discussed.

Gerhold, C. H.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Revisiting AVHRR Tropospheric Aerosol Trends Using Principal Component Analysis

The advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) satellite instruments provide a nearly 25 year continuous record of global aerosol properties over the ocean. It offers valuable insights into the long-term change in global aerosol loading. However, the AVHRR data record is heavily influenced by two volcanic eruptions, El Chichon on March 1982 and Mount Pinatubo on June 1991. The gradual decay of volcanic aerosols may last years after the eruption, which potentially masks the estimation of aerosol trends in the lower troposphere, especially those of anthropogenic origin. In this study, we show that a principal component analysis approach effectively captures the bulk of the spatial and temporal variability of volcanic aerosols into a single mode. The spatial pattern and time series of this mode provide a good match to the global distribution and decay of volcanic aerosols. We further reconstruct the data set by removing the volcanic aerosol component and reestimate the global and regional aerosol trends. Globally, the reconstructed data set reveals an increase of aerosol optical depth from 1985 to 1990 and decreasing trend from 1994 to 2006. Regionally, in the 1980s, positive trends are observed over the North Atlantic and North Arabian Sea, while negative tendencies are present off the West African coast and North Pacific. During the 1994 to 2006 period, the Gulf of Mexico, North Atlantic close to Europe, and North Africa exhibit negative trends, while the coastal regions of East and South Asia, the Sahel region, and South America show positive trends.

volcanoes↗
NASA NTRS2010

Noninvasive Techniques for Intracranial Pressure Assessment: A Review from Aerospace Medicine Perspective

Microgravity-induced changes in fluid distribution and other physiological factors due to space flight have been implicated as the cause of increased intracranial pressure (ICP) in a number of space crewmembers. The modest levels of ICP elevation and absence of severe symptoms in this group do not warrant invasive diagnostic interventions. However, the long-term trends and residual or consequential changes secondary to the observed ICP elevation in this group are not yet known. Therefore, close attention is needed to evaluate the potential techniques of noninvasively assessing ICP, including those feasible for in-flight use. Of particular interest is continuity between ground and in-flight testing, whereby data from the same or different techniques allow reasonably dependable estimation of ICP trends and responses. Methods: A thorough review of current literature, analysis of NASA data, and interviews with subject matter experts were conducted to construct a presentation that reflects the state of the art for noninvasive ICP measurement and monitoring. Results: Multiple imaging and non-imaging modalities are available to assess ICP in terrestrial clinical and experimental environments. Imaging alternatives include magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and high-resolution sonography. Non-imaging techniques include transcranial Doppler, certain audiological methods, and venous ophthalmodynamometry, among others. Special functional techniques have been proposed recently that allow the use of advanced MRI methods to calculate ICP in addition to the acquisition of high-resolution images. Our data include many of these applications, with several cases of correlation with lumbar puncture, the invasive "gold standard" measurement of ICP.

Hamilton, Douglas R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Regional Changes in the Sea Ice Cover and Ice Production in the Antarctic

Coastal polynyas around the Antarctic continent have been regarded as sea ice factories because of high ice production rates in these regions. The observation of a positive trend in the extent of Antarctic sea ice during the satellite era has been intriguing in light of the observed rapid decline of the ice extent in the Arctic. The results of analysis of the time series of passive microwave data indicate large regional variability with the trends being strongly positive in the Ross Sea, strongly negative in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas and close to zero in the other regions. The atmospheric circulation in the Antarctic is controlled mainly by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the marginal ice zone around the continent shows an alternating pattern of advance and retreat suggesting the presence of a propagating wave (called Antarctic Circumpolar Wave) around the circumpolar region. The results of analysis of the passive microwave data suggest that the positive trend in the Antarctic sea ice cover could be caused primarily by enhanced ice production in the Ross Sea that may be associated with more persistent and larger coastal polynyas in the region. Over the Ross Sea shelf, analysis of sea ice drift data from 1992 to 2008 yields a positive rate-of-increase in the net ice export of about 30,000 km2 per year. For a characteristic ice thickness of 0.6 m, this yields a volume transport of about 20 km3/year, which is almost identical, within error bars, to our estimate of the trend in ice production. In addition to the possibility of changes in SAM, modeling studies have also indicated that the ozone hole may have a role in that it causes the deepening of the lows in the western Antarctic region thereby causing strong winds to occur offthe Ross-ice shelf.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of top-down and bottom-up global terrestrial respiration estimates and their mismatch with model simulations

Terrestrial respiration is one of the most poorly understood processes in the global carbon cycle, making respiration predictions uncertain. However, expanding observations and machine learning approaches have led to a proliferation of estimates. We compiled total ecosystem and heterotrophic respiration estimates derived from top-down atmospheric inversions and bottom-up upscaling of ecosystem observations and compared them with dynamic vegetation models (DGVM) simulations over the 1980-2020 period. Our analysis revealed a convergence in mean annual global total ecosystem respiration estimates between top-down 97.1 (± SD 6.8) PgC yr-1 and bottom-up 98.5 (+/-13.4) PgC yr-1, which were both significantly lower than the ensemble mean from DGVMs estimates 133.7 (±4.7) PgC yr-1. We also found similar temporal trends between top-down estimates with a mean of 0.075 (±0.05) PgC yr-2, and bottom-up estimates of 0.05 (±0.05) PgC yr-2, which were 5 to 7 times smaller than the ensemble mean trend of 0.34 PgC yr-2 simulated by DGVMs. Global heterotrophic respiration showed much less agreement, ranging from top-down estimates of 42.7 (±4.0) PgC yr-1 to bottom-up estimates of 51.5 (±4.0) PgC yr-1 and a significantly larger ensemble model mean estimate of 60.8 PgC yr-1 (±1.9). The temporal trends in observation-based bottom-up estimates of heterotrophic respiration of 0.03 PgC yr-2 were five times lower than the model ensemble mean 0.15 PgC yr-2. Large regional disagreements in heterotrophic respiration estimates and simulations were evident in tropical and boreal latitudes. Therefore, improved regional and heterotrophic respiration estimates are necessary to reduce uncertainties regarding the future vulnerability of soil carbon.

Ballantyne, Ashley↗
NASA NTRS1985

Practical aspects of photovoltaic technology, applications and cost (revised)

The purpose of this text is to provide the reader with the background, understanding, and computational tools needed to master the practical aspects of photovoltaic (PV) technology, application, and cost. The focus is on stand-alone, silicon solar cell, flat-plate systems in the range of 1 to 25 kWh/day output. Technology topics covered include operation and performance of each of the major system components (e.g., modules, array, battery, regulators, controls, and instrumentation), safety, installation, operation and maintenance, and electrical loads. Application experience and trends are presented. Indices of electrical service performance - reliability, availability, and voltage control - are discussed, and the known service performance of central station electric grid, diesel-generator, and PV stand-alone systems are compared. PV system sizing methods are reviewed and compared, and a procedure for rapid sizing is described and illustrated by the use of several sample cases. The rapid sizing procedure yields an array and battery size that corresponds to a minimum cost system for a given load requirement, insulation condition, and desired level of service performance. PV system capital cost and levelized energy cost are derived as functions of service performance and insulation. Estimates of future trends in PV system costs are made.

Rosenblum, L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Analysis of upper stratospheric Umkehr ozone profile data for trends and the effects of stratospheric aerosols

The effect of stratospheric aerosols on Umkehr estimates of long-term ozone depletion associated with chlorofluoromethanes (CFMs) is considered in a statistical time series trend analysis. Time series models are estimated using monthly averages of Umkehr measurements made over the last 15 to 20 years. The time series regression models incorporate seasonal, trend and noise factors and an additional factor to account for the effects of atmospheric aerosols on the Umkehr measurements. The analysis indicates a statistically significant relation with atmospheric aerosol transmission in the Umkehr layers and implies that the relation is an important factor in any time series trend analysis of Umkehr data. Taking this relation into account, statistically significant negative trends were found in the Upper Umkehr layers. It is pointed out that upper stratospheric ozone could be sensitive to long-term solar variability as well as other possible influences in addition to CFM-induced effects, and therefore the cause or causes of the estimated trend cannot be unambiguously estimated using current Umkehr data.

Reinsel, G. C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Sensitivity to Factors Underlying the Hiatus

Recent trends in global mean surface air temperature fall outside the 90 range predicted by models using the CMIP5 forcings and scenarios; this recent period of muted warming is dubbed the hiatus. The hiatus has attracted broad attention in both the popular press and the scientific literature, primarily because of its perceived implications for understanding long-term trends. Many hypotheses have been offered to explain the warming slowdown during the hiatus, and comprehensive studies of this period across multiple variables and spatial scales will likely improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms driving global temperature change and variability.We argue, however, that decadal temperature trends by themselves are unlikely to constrain future trajectories of global mean temperature and that the hiatus does not significantly revise our understanding of overall climate sensitivity. Instead, we demonstrate that, because of the poorly constrained nature of the hiatus, model-observation disagreements over this period may be resolvable via uncertainties in the observations, modeled internal variability, forcing estimates, or (more likely) some combination of all three factors. We define the hiatus interval as 1998-2012, endpoints judiciously chosen to minimize observed warming by including the large 1998 El Nio event and excluding 2014, an exceptionally warm year. Such choices are fundamentally subjective and cannot be considered random, so any probabilistic statements regarding the likelihood of this occurring need to be made carefully. Using this definition, the observed global temperature trend estimates from four datasets fall outside the 5-95 interval predicted by the CMIP5 models. Here we explore some of the plausible explanations for this discrepancy, and show that no unique explanation is likely to fully account for the hiatus.

trends↗
NASA NTRS1994

Status of the Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) calibration of the NOAA SBUV/2 operational ozone sounders and the detection of trends

The Shuttle Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SSBUV) experiment has flown four times since October 1989. The purpose of SSBUV is to perform calibration checks of the SBUV ozone sounding instruments on the Nimbus and NOAA satellites in order to remove calibration drift so that ozone trends in the middle stratosphere can be accurately derived. Calibration checks are performed by comparing coincident observations between SSBUV and the satellite instruments. Regular flights of about once per year and maintenance of the SSBUV calibration to 1 percent from flight to flight are the major challenges for SSBUV. To date the required flight frequency has been met and instrument calibration is known to about 1-2 percent for the first three flights. The first comparisons showed 30 percent differences between SSBUV and the original archived Nimbus SBUV data, but considerably smaller differences with the new SBUV 'Version 6' data. Differences between SSBUV and SBUV/2 instruments on NOAA-11 and NOAA-9 were of the order of 5-10 percent respectively. These differences have not been accounted for in the present NOAA data set since they contain initial calibration biases as well as long term instrument drift. With subsequent SSBUV comparisons, the satellite calibration can be corrected, which will then allow an accurate estimate of ozone trends in the upper stratosphere. In this initial study, 1989 Nimbus-7 SBUV data have been corrected using SSBUV observations and then compared to SBUV data for 1980. This comparison then leads to an ozone trend of 7 percent in the upper stratosphere over the tropics for the period 1980 to 1989.

Hilsenrath, Ernest↗
DOE OSTI2021

Alternative Designs and Analyses for Destructive and Non-replicable Gauge R &R Studies

This article presents new designs and their analyses for destructive and non-replicable gauge R & R studies. Less restrictive assumptions about destructive measurements on “similar” parts and non-replicable measurements made over time or space than have been made previously in the literature are proposed; only couples of “nearly identical” parts are proposed for destructive measurements and quadruples involving two operators are proposed for non-replicable measurements that avoid having to estimate a common trend and removing it. In this work, these new designs based on balanced incomplete block designs and their analyses are illustrated with simulated examples that confirm that with them such measurements systems can be assessed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying spatiotemporal patterns in opioid vulnerability: investigating the links between disability, prescription opioids and opioid-related mortality

Background: The opioid crisis remains one of the most daunting and complex public health problems in the United States. This study investigates the national epidemic by analyzing vulnerability profiles of three key factors: opioid-related mortality rates, opioid prescription dispensing rates, and disability rank ordered rates. Methods: This study utilizes county level data, spanning the years 2014 through 2020, on the rates of opioid-related mortality, opioid prescription dispensing, and disability. To successfully estimate and predict trends in these opioid-related factors, we augment the Kalman Filter with a novel spatial component. To define opioid vulnerability profiles, we create heat maps of our filter’s predicted rates across the nation’s counties and identify the hotspots. In this context, hotspots are defined on a year-by-year basis as counties with rates in the top 5% nationally. Results: Our spatial Kalman filter demonstrates strong predictive performance. From 2014 to 2018, these predictions highlight consistent spatiotemporal patterns across all three factors, with Appalachia distinguished as the nation’s most vulnerable region. Starting in 2019 however, the dispensing rate profiles undergo a dramatic and chaotic shift. Conclusions: The initial primary drivers of opioid abuse in the Appalachian region were likely prescription opioids; however, it now appears that abuse is sustained by illegal drugs. Additionally, we find that the disabled subpopulation may be more at risk of opioid-related mortality than the general population. Public health initiatives must extend beyond controlling prescription practices to address the transition to and impact of illicit drug use.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

RectifHydPlus: Forty Year Hydropower Generation Reanalysis for Conterminous United States, Version 1.1.

This dataset contains monthly hydropower net-generation totals for 590 plants (each >10 MW) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) from 1980 to 2019. RectifHydPlus v1.1 includes one harmonized table of historical monthly generation—backfilled with observed monthly values where available—and two companion tables: (i) an estimates-only version with no backfill and (ii) a hydrological-control version that removes the effects of capacity and operational change. Each table comprises 23,600 records (590 plants × 40 years). The dataset was developed to address temporal gaps and inconsistencies in publicly available hydropower generation data as available through EIA-923 survey reports. Each record includes a quality label denoting the underlying proxy—from best (direct reservoir releases) to weakest (pattern copied from similar years). By combining the agency-reported survey records with observed and simulated hydrologic releases, RectifHydPlus offers complete, quality-labeled monthly estimates suitable for trend analysis and generation of hydropower generation inputs for energy-water modeling.

Turner, Sean [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measuring labor productivity dynamics in U.S. industrial and electric power sectors: a case study (2014–2023)

This study proposes a subsystem methodology for measuring labor productivity in the U.S. industrial and electric power sectors by leveraging public data available between 2014 and 2023. Building on Pasinetti’s framework and subsequent developments, the approach employs Vertically Integrated Sectors (VIS) to account for both direct and indirect productivity effects. The novelty of this work is twofold. First, it enables the estimation of productivity trends over time, providing a robust foundation for empirical analysis. Second, it applies the methodology to a case study of the electric generation sector, highlighting its practical relevance. Using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN) tool, the study reveals significant discrepancies between conventional productivity measures and those derived from the VIS approach. Furthermore, the proposed method aligns with the principles of Integrated Energy Systems by capturing the interrelations among generation, distribution, storage, and consumption. This alignment underscores its utility and applications for energy-related policy and planning. Overall, the findings contribute to more precise labor productivity assessments, supporting informed decision-making and future research. Additionally, the method highlights the importance of considering the whole supply chain, providing interrelated metrics for labor productivity which includes both, direct and indirect effects on the final labor productivity metric. By incorporating intersectoral dependencies, this method offers a more comprehensive and accurate measure of labor productivity compared to traditional metrics.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1975

Computers vs. wind tunnels for aerodynamic flow simulations

It is pointed out that in other fields of computational physics, such as ballistics, celestial mechanics, and neutronics, computations have already displaced experiments as the principal means of obtaining dynamic simulations. In the case of aerodynamic investigations, the complexity of the computational work involved in solving the Navier-Stokes equations is the reason that such investigations rely currently mainly on wind-tunnel testing. However, because of inherent limitations of the wind-tunnel approach and economic considerations, it appears that at some time in the future aerodynamic studies will chiefly rely on computational flow data provided by the computer. Taking into account projected development trends, it is estimated that computers with the required capabilities for a solution of the complete viscous, time-dependent Navier-Stokes equations will be available in the mid-1980s.

Chapman, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Techniques for the determination of mass properties of earth-to-orbit transportation systems

One estimating technique involves trending whereby projections of overall mass properties of vehicles are determined with few inputs. The second technique involves trending of individual subsystems using equations of the form KXN to the nth power or KX. Some constants and exponentials are provided for sample subsystems. Mass properties are reported in a format recommended by mil spec - 38310.

Macconochie, I. O.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Coronal holes, the height of the chromosphere, and the origin of spicules

Analysis of 650 microphotometric scans across the solar limb reveals that the H(alpha) chromosphere is slightly taller inside coronal holes than in quiet regions outside holes. The change in height occurs as a step at the hole boundaries; this suggests that the increase with latitude in the average height of spicules found by Lippincott and by Athay was the average result of upward steps at the polar hole boundaries rather than a gradual latitude trend. It is estimated that the power consumed by spicules is of the same order as that returning by conduction from the corona, but the bulk of the spicules (which sets the height of the chromosphere) shows almost no response. It is concluded that spicules are not caused by heat conduction from the corona but are driven from below, suggesting that spicules are more closely connected with the heating of the corona than with its cooling.

Rabin, D.↗
NASA NTRS1982

MAGSAT for geomagnetic studies over Indian region

The external current field due to ring current and the associated induced part were removed. Adjacent passes over India were elected and best function to account for the trend correction was estimated. The UPCON software sent from Canada was made operational and features of equatorial electrojet were studied from MAGSAT records.

Rastogi, R. G.↗