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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interval Predictor Models for Robust System Identification

This paper proposes a framework for the identification and uncertainty quantification of plant models according to multivariable data. The only restriction imposed upon such models is for their outputs to depend continuously on their parameters. An Interval Predictor Model (IPM) prescribes the parameters of a computational model as a path-connected set thereby making each predicted output an interval-valued function of its inputs. The formulation proposed seeks the parameter set for which the predicted outputs tightly enclose the data. This set, which is modeled as a semi-algebraic set of low-degree polynomials, enables the characterization of possibly strong parameter dependencies commonly found in practice. This uncertainty characterization makes the resulting plant model amenable to robust control approaches using polynomial optimization. Furthermore, we use non-convex scenario theory to assess the reliability of the resulting IPM. This assessment yields a distribution-free upper bound on the probability that future data will fall outside the predicted intervals.

interval↗

NASA NTRS1984

Uncertainties about the physical electronics of n(+) and p(+) silicon, with applications for solar cells

After brief surveys of the significance of n(+) and p(+) silicon for the conversion efficiency of solar cells, the work in this paper is concentrated on uncertainties in the characterization of n(+) and p(+) regions. The topics treated include the quantum density states of the majority carrier band and the position of the Fermi level relative to the edge of this band, the resulting force field on the minority carriers accompanying a space dependence of the energy gap narrowing, and the interpretation of measurements of the energy gap narrowing and the minority carrier diffusivity and mobility. The treatment seeks to show how these uncertainties relate to solar cell design and to estimates of attainable conversion efficiency.

Lindholm, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assessment of Satellite Radiometry in the Visible Domain

Marine reflectance and chlorophyll-a concentration are listed among the Essential Climate Variables by the Global Climate Observing System. To contribute to climate research, the satellite ocean color data records resulting from successive missions need to be consistent and well characterized in terms of uncertainties. This chapter reviews various approaches that can be used for the assessment of satellite ocean color data. Good practices for validating satellite products with in situ data and the current status of validation results are illustrated. Model-based approaches and inter-comparison techniques can also contribute to characterize some components of the uncertainty budget, while time series analysis can detect issues with the instrument radiometric characterization and calibration. Satellite data from different missions should also provide a consistent picture in scales of variability, including seasonal and interannual signals. Eventually, the various assessment approaches should be combined to create a fully characterized climate data record from satellite ocean color.

ocean color↗

NASA NTRS1984

The importance and attainment of accurate absolute radiometric calibration

The importance of accurate absolute radiometric calibration is discussed by reference to the needs of those wishing to validate or use models describing the interaction of electromagnetic radiation with the atmosphere and earth surface features. The in-flight calibration methods used for the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) and the Systeme Probatoire d'Observation de la Terre, Haute Resolution visible (SPOT/HRV) systems are described and their limitations discussed. The questionable stability of in-flight absolute calibration methods suggests the use of a radiative transfer program to predict the apparent radiance, at the entrance pupil of the sensor, of a ground site of measured reflectance imaged through a well characterized atmosphere. The uncertainties of such a method are discussed.

Slater, P. N.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Mission design challenges posed by the Voyager 2 Neptune encounter

A major challenge for the Voyager 2 Neptune encounter lies in the detailed design of a trajectory that achieves science objectives at the planet as well as at its large satellite, Triton. This achievement demands a close flyby of the primary, whereas the planet's great distance makes such an undertaking especially challenging. Changing estimates and uncertainties of parameters characterizing the Neptune environment, particularly ring, atmosphere and radiation models, affect the mission design. These effects are investigated and trade-offs among candidate trajectories are examined with respect to spacecraft performance, avoidance of risk and science objective achievement.

Cesarone, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Ten Years of Solar Change as Monitored by SBUV and SBUV/2

Observations of the Sun by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument aboard Nimbus 7 and the SBUV/2 instrument aboard NOAA-9 reveal variations in the solar irradiance from 1978, to 1988. The maximum to minimum solar change estimated from the Heath and Schlesinger Mg index and wavelength scaling factors is about 4 percent from 210 to 260 nm and 8 percent for 180 to 210 nm; direct measurements of the solar change give values of 1 to 3 percent and 5 to 7 percent, respectively, for the same wavelength range. Solar irradiances were high from the start of observations, late in 1978, until 1983, declined until early 1985, remained approximately constant until mid-1987, and then began to rise. Peak-to-peak 27-day rotational modulation amplitudes were as large as 6 percent at solar maximum and 1 to 2 percent at solar minimum. During occasional intervals of the 1979 to 1983 maximum and again during 1988, the dominant rotational modulation period was 13.5 days. Measurements near 200 to 205 nm show the same rotational modulation behavior but cannot be used to track long-term changes in the Sun because of uncertainties in the characterization of long-term instrument sensitivity changes.

Schlesinger, B. M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

System/observer/controller identification toolbox

System Identification is the process of constructing a mathematical model from input and output data for a system under testing, and characterizing the system uncertainties and measurement noises. The mathematical model structure can take various forms depending upon the intended use. The SYSTEM/OBSERVER/CONTROLLER IDENTIFICATION TOOLBOX (SOCIT) is a collection of functions, written in MATLAB language and expressed in M-files, that implements a variety of modern system identification techniques. For an open loop system, the central features of the SOCIT are functions for identification of a system model and its corresponding forward and backward observers directly from input and output data. The system and observers are represented by a discrete model. The identified model and observers may be used for controller design of linear systems as well as identification of modal parameters such as dampings, frequencies, and mode shapes. For a closed-loop system, an observer and its corresponding controller gain directly from input and output data.

Juang, Jer-Nan↗

NASA NTRS1996

Validation of UARS Microwave Limb Sounder Temperature and Pressure Measurements

The accuracy and precision of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) atmospheric temperature and tangent-point pressure measurements are described. Temperatures and tangent- point pressure (atmospheric pressure at the tangent height of the field of view boresight) are retrieved from a 15-channel 63-GHz radiometer measuring O2 microwave emissions from the stratosphere and mesosphere. The Version 3 data (first public release) contains scientifically useful temperatures from 22 to 0.46 hPa. Accuracy estimates are based on instrument performance, spectroscopic uncertainty and retrieval numerics, and range from 2.1 K at 22 hPa to 4.8 K at 0.46 hPa for temperature and from 200 m (equivalent log pressure) at 10 hPa to 300 m at 0.1 hPa. Temperature accuracy is limited mainly by uncertainty in instrument characterization, and tangent-point pressure accuracy is limited mainly by the accuracy of spectroscopic parameters. Precisions are around 1 K and 100 m. Comparisons are presented among temperatures from MLS, the National Meteorological Center (NMC) stratospheric analysis and lidar stations at Table Mountain, California, Observatory of Haute Provence (OHP), France, and Goddard Spaceflight Center, Maryland. MLS temperatures tend to be 1-2 K lower than NMC and lidar, but MLS is often 5 - 10 K lower than NMC in the winter at high latitudes, especially within the northern hemisphere vortex. Winter MLS and OHP (44 deg N) lidar temperatures generally agree and tend to be lower than NMC. Problems with Version 3 MLS temperatures and tangent-point pressures are identified, but the high precision of MLS radiances will allow improvements with better algorithms planned for the future.

Fishbein, E. F.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Cars Thermometry in a Supersonic Combustor for CFD Code Validation

An experiment has been conducted to acquire data for the validation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes used in the design of supersonic combustors. The primary measurement technique is coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectroscopy (CARS), although surface pressures and temperatures have also been acquired. Modern- design- of-experiment techniques have been used to maximize the quality of the data set (for the given level of effort) and minimize systematic errors. The combustor consists of a diverging duct with single downstream- angled wall injector. Nominal entrance Mach number is 2 and enthalpy nominally corresponds to Mach 7 flight. Temperature maps are obtained at several planes in the flow for two cases: in one case the combustor is piloted by injecting fuel upstream of the main injector, the second is not. Boundary conditions and uncertainties are adequately characterized. Accurate CFD calculation of the flow will ultimately require accurate modeling of the chemical kinetics and turbulence-chemistry interactions as well as accurate modeling of the turbulent mixing

Cutler, A. D.↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Role of Trust and Interaction in Global Positioning System Related Accidents

The Global Positioning System (GPS) uses a network of satellites to calculate the position of a receiver over time. This technology has revolutionized a wide range of safety-critical industries and leisure applications. These systems provide diverse benefits; supplementing the users existing navigation skills and reducing the uncertainty that often characterizes many route planning tasks. GPS applications can also help to reduce workload by automating tasks that would otherwise require finite cognitive and perceptual resources. However, the operation of these systems has been identified as a contributory factor in a range of recent accidents. Users often come to rely on GPS applications and, therefore, fail to notice when they develop faults or when errors occur in the other systems that use the data from these systems. Further accidents can stem from the over confidence that arises when users assume automated warnings will be issued when they stray from an intended route. Unless greater attention is paid to the role of trust and interaction in GPS applications then there is a danger that we will see an increasing number of these failures as positioning technologies become integral in the functioning of increasing numbers of applications.

Johnson, Chris W.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Effects of Acute Exposures to Carbon Dioxide Upon Cognitive Functions

Large quantities of carbon dioxide (CO2) originate from human metabolism and typically, within spacecraft, remain about 10-fold higher in concentration than at the earth's surface. There have been recurring complaints by crew members of episodes of "mental viscosity" adversely affecting their performance, and there is evidence from the International Space Station (ISS) that associates CO2 levels with reports of headaches by crewmembers. Additionally, there is concern that CO2 may contribute to vision impairment and intracranial pressure that has been observed in some crewmembers. Consequently, flight rules have been employed to control the level of CO2 below 4 mm Hg, which is well below the existing Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentration (SMAC) of 10 mm Hg for 24-hour exposures, and 5.3 mm Hg for exposures of 7 to 180 days. However, the flight rule imposed limit, which places additional demands upon resources and current technology, still exceeds the lower bound of the threshold range for reportable headaches (2 - 5 mm Hg). Headaches, while sometime debilitating themselves, are also symptoms that can provide evidence that physiological defense mechanisms have been breached. The causes of the headaches may elicit other subtle adverse effects that occur at CO2 levels well below that for headaches. The concern that CO2 may have effects at levels below the threshold for headaches appears to be substantiated in unexpected findings that CO2 at concentrations below 2 mm Hg substantially reduced some cognitive functions that are associated with the ability to make complex decisions in conditions that are characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity, and delayed feedback. These are conditions that could be encountered by crews in off-nominal situations or during the first missions beyond low earth orbit. If findings of the earlier study are confirmed in crew-like subjects, our findings would provide additional evidence that CO2 may need to be controlled at levels that are well below current spacecraft limits. Our study will extend the earlier study to determine if crew-like subjects are similarly effected by CO2. In addition to employing the Strategic Management Simulation tool, we will use the Cognition battery of psychometric measures that are being utilized aboard the ISS. It will be important to learn, by using Cognition, if additional cognitive domains are sensitive to concentrations of CO2 at or below limits currently controlled by flight rules. While spaceflight Cognition data will greatly enhance the knowledge base related to inflight behavioral health and performance, some of the measures may be influenced by fatigue (related to sleep deprivation and or workload) and changes in circadian rhythms. Therefore our use of this battery of tests in a well-controlled, ground-based study that is free of these potential confounding influences will establish a baseline terrestrial data set against which Cognition data collected in flight may be assessed. The findings from this study will be useful to the NASA Toxicology Office and the National Research Council Committee on Toxicology, which assists NASA in setting environmental standards, for revision of the SMAC for CO2, and for designing further studies on effects of CO2 upon cognitive functions.

Scully, R. R.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Effects of Acute Exposures to Carbon Dioxide upon Cognitive Functions

Carbon dioxide (CO2) originates from human metabolism and typically remains about 10-fold higher in concentration on the International Space Station (ISS) than at the earth's surface. There have been recurring complaints by crew members of episodes of "mental viscosity" adversely affecting their performance, and there is evidence from the ISS that associates CO2 levels with reports of headaches by crewmembers. Consequently, flight rules have been employed to control CO2 below 3 mm Hg, which is well below the existing Spacecraft Maximum Allowable Concentration (SMAC) of 10 mm Hg for 24-hour exposures, and 5.3 mm Hg for exposures of 7 to 180 days. Headaches, while sometime debilitating themselves, are also symptoms that can provide evidence that physiological defense mechanisms have been breached, and there is evidence that CO2 has effects at levels below the threshold for headaches. This concern appears to be substantiated in reports that CO2 at concentrations below 2 mm Hg substantially reduced some cognitive functions that are associated with the ability to make complex decisions in conditions that are characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity, and delayed feedback. These are conditions that could be encountered by crews in off-nominal situations or during the first missions beyond low earth orbit. Therefore, we set out to determine if decision-making under volatile, uncertain, confusing and ambiguous circumstances, where feedback is delayed or absent, is correlated with low levels of CO2 during acute exposures (several hours) in crew-like subjects and to determine if additional cognitive domains are sensitive to concentrations of CO2 at, or below, current ISS levels by using a test battery that is currently available onboard ISS. We enrolled 22 volunteers (8 females, 14 males) between the ages of 30-55 (38.8 +/- 7.0) years whose training and professional experience reflect that of the astronaut corps. Subjects were divided among 4 study groups. Exposures occurred in the 20-foot environmental chamber in Bldg 7 at JSC. Each group was exposed to each of four concentrations of CO2 (600, 1200, 2500, and 5000 ppm), and the exposure order was balanced across the groups which were randomly assigned to 4 possible complete exposure orders. Study participants and investigators were blinded to the exposure order. Each exposure lasted 4 hours and occurred on the same day each week for 4 consecutive weeks. Testing included the Strategic Management Simulation (SMS) methodology and the Cognition battery of psychometric measures that are being utilized aboard the ISS. Subjects participated in a familiarization session one week prior to the start of exposure sessions. Each exposure session followed the schedule noted in Figure 1 below. On the morning of each exposure, subjects completed the Cognition battery in a conference room at indoor ambient CO2 levels. Subjects then entered the exposure chamber and were acclimated to the environment for 15 minutes before completing another round of the Cognition battery. After a 20 minute rest, subject completed the approx.80 minute SMS. Subjects were allowed another 20 minute rest period before completing the final Cognition test battery in the exposure chamber. Subjects then returned to the conference room where they completed one final round of Cognition. Data from both testing methodologies are currently being analyzed and will be presented. Study investigators have not yet been unblinded to the coded exposure concentrations, but preliminary results suggest differences.

Ryder, V. E.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Absorption Cross-Sections of Ozone in the Ultraviolet and Visible Spectral Regions: Status report 2015

The activity Absorption Cross-Sections of Ozone (ACSO) started in 2008 as a joint initiative of the International Ozone Commission (IO3C), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the IGACO (Integrated Global Atmospheric Chemistry Observations) O3/UV subgroup to study, evaluate, and recommend the most suitable ozone absorption cross-section laboratory data to be used in atmospheric ozone measurements. The evaluation was basically restricted to ozone absorption cross-sections in the UV range with particular focus on the Huggins band. Up until now, the data of Bass and Paur published in 1985 (BP, 1985) are still officially recommended for such measurements. During the last decade it became obvious that BP (1985) cross-section data have deficits for use in advanced space-borne ozone measurements. At the same time, it was recognized that the origin of systematic differences in ground-based measurements of ozone required further investigation, in particular whether the BP (1985) cross-section data might contribute to these differences. In ACSO, different sets of laboratory ozone absorption cross-section data (including their dependence on temperature) of the group of Reims (France) (Brion et al., 1993, 1998, 1992, 1995, abbreviated as BDM, 1995) and those of Serdyuchenko et al. (2014), and Gorshelev et al. (2014), (abbreviated as SER, 2014) were examined for use in atmospheric ozone measurements in the Huggins band. In conclusion, ACSO recommends:(a) The spectroscopic data of BP (1985) should no longer be used for retrieval of atmospheric ozone measurements.(b) For retrieval of ground-based instruments of total ozone and ozone profile measurements by the Umkehr method performed by Brewer and Dobson instruments data of SER (2014) are recommended to be used. When SER (2014) is used, the difference between total ozone measurements of Brewer and Dobson instruments are very small and the difference between Dobson measurements at AD and CD wavelength pairs are diminished.(c) For ground-based Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) measurements the use of BDM (1995) or SER (2014) is recommended.(d) For satellite retrieval the presently widely used data of BDM (1995) should be used because SER (2014) seems less suitable for retrievals that use wavelengths close to 300 nm due to a deficiency in the signal-to-noise ratio in the SER (2014) dataset.The work of ACSO also showed: The need to continue laboratory cross-section measurements of ozone of highest quality. The importance of careful characterization of the uncertainties of the laboratory measurements. The need to extend the scope of such studies to other wavelength ranges (particularly to cover not only the Huggins band but also the comparison with the mid-infrared region). The need for regular cooperation of experts in spectral laboratory measurements and specialists in atmospheric (ozone) measurements.

Orphal, Johannes↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variability in Modelled Airborne Dust Mineralogy Derived from Global Soil Composition Uncertainties

Dust aerosols consist on a variety of minerals with different physic and chemical properties. As such, they interact with short and long wave radiation, potentially form clouds, act as nutrients modulating biogeochemical cycles, or influence atmospheric chemistry, differently. Most current state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) neglect the complexity in dust composition, mainly due to computational constraints, but also to the existing uncertainties in the size resolved composition of parent soils, the resulting distribution of minerals in airborne dust, and the scarcity of observations to constrain them. Within this work, we assess the variability of global dust composition due to uncertainties in the characterization of the parent soil mineralogy. To that end, we consider two available global soil mineralogy atlases, developed by Claquin et al. (1999) –C1999- and Journet et al. (2014) –J2014-, which represent respectively 8 and 12 relevant minerals for climate (namely: illite, smectite/montmorillonite, kaolinite, calcite, gypsum, hematite, quartz, and feldspars in C1999, and those plus chlorite, vermiculite, goethite, and mica in J2014). Thanks to a recently developed feature of the MONARCH atmospheric-chemistry model, we are able to explicitly resolve the minerals’ atmospheric cycle. Therefore, we define two global experiments to assess changes on airborne dust composition attributed to the soil mineralogy assumptions and provide a measure of their variability. We also perform a preliminary evaluation of the global mineralogy results against available observations of mineral fractions in surface dust concentration. Our results will inform the climate modelling community about the potential variability in dust composition, an aspect that will gain relevance as ESMs continue growing in complexity and new processes to better characterize aerosols’ forcing or biogeochemical cycles are added. Further observational constraints, such as those that will derive from the EMIT NASA mission on soil composition or the FRAGMENT experimental campaigns on airborne dust characterization, will be key in the near future to improve our understanding of the impact of dust mineralogy on fundamental climate features.

Dust aerosols↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Upgrades to the Single Stage Axial Compressor and Fan Facility For Low Pressure Ratio and Boundary Layer Ingesting Fan Research

Next generation aircraft engine efficiency goals will be met through high bypass ratio engines. To achieve these goals, a combination of small core and low pressure ratio fan technologies will be necessary. Additionally, advanced propulsion air-frame integration concepts, such as boundary layer propulsion, and distributed electrically driven fans with short inlets or wing integration strategies, are beginning to be investigated for their potential fuel burn savings. In order to realize the potential fuel savings from these technologies, it is necessary to have testing capabilities for the components. The NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) Single StageAxial Fan and Compressor Facility (also called the GRC W-8Facility) has recently undergone several significant upgrades in order to effectively test low pressure ratio fans and various inlet distortions. This paper will outline various challenges to testing low pressure ratio fans and the methods implemented to ensure that the W-8 facility is capable of performing these tests and acquiring high quality data. The upgrades include significant pip-ing upgrades to reduce pressure loss and turbulence, capability for inlet total pressure and swirl distortion, increased test section length including a longer shaft, a two component balance, an up-graded rotating data system, and a new temperature characterization to reduce uncertainties in thermocouple measurements

W-8 Facility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Upgrades to the Single Stage Axial Compressor and Fan Facility For Low Pressure Ratio and Boundary Layer Ingesting Fan Research

Next generation aircraft engine efficiency goals will be met through high bypass ratio engines. To achieve these goals, a combination of small core and low pressure ratio fan technologies will be necessary. Additionally, advanced propulsion airframe integration concepts, such as boundary layer propulsion, and distributed electrically driven fans with short inlets or wing integration strategies, are beginning to be investigated for their potential fuel burn savings. In order to realize the potential fuel savings from these technologies, it is necessary to have testing capabilities for the components. The NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) Single Stage Axial Fan and Compressor Facility (also called the GRC W-8 Facility) has recently undergone several significant upgrades in order to effectively test low pressure ratio fans and various inlet distortions. This paper will outline various challenges to testing low pressure ratio fans and the methods implemented to ensure that the W-8 facility is capable of performing these tests and acquiring high quality data. The upgrades include significant piping upgrades to reduce pressure loss and turbulence, capability for inlet total pressure and swirl distortion, increased test section length including a longer shaft, a two component balance, an upgraded rotating data system, and a new temperature characterization to reduce uncertainties in thermocouple measurements.

W-8 facitlity↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Framework for Deep Learning Emulation of Numerical Models With a Case Study in Satellite Remote Sensing

Numerical models based on physics represent the state of the art in Earth system modeling and comprise our best tools for generating insights and predictions. Despite rapid growth in computational power, the perceived need for higher model resolutions overwhelms the latest generation computers, reducing the ability of modelers to generate simulations for understanding parameter sensitivities and characterizing variability and uncertainty. Thus, surrogate models are often developed to capture the essential attributes of the full-blown numerical models. Recent successes of machine learning methods, especially deep learning (DL), across many disciplines offer the possibility that complex nonlinear connectionist representations may be able to capture the underlying complex structures and nonlinear processes in Earth systems. A difficult test for DL-based emulation, which refers to function approximation of numerical models, is to understand whether they can be comparable to traditional forms of surrogate models in terms of computational efficiency while simultaneously reproducing model results in a credible manner. A DL emulation that passes this test may be expected to perform even better than simple models with respect to capturing complex processes and spatiotemporal dependencies. Here, we examine, with a case study in satellite-based remote sensing, the hypothesis that DL approaches can credibly represent the simulations from a surrogate model with comparable computational efficiency. Our results are encouraging in that the DL emulation reproduces the results with acceptable accuracy and often even faster performance. We discuss the broader implications of our results in light of the pace of improvements in high-performance implementations of DL and the growing desire for higher resolution simulations in the Earth sciences.

Bayesian Deep Learning↗

NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change Impact Uncertainties for Maize in Panama: Farm Information, Climate Projections, and Yield Sensitivities

We present results from a pilot project to characterize and bound multi-disciplinary uncertainties around the assessment of maize (Zea mays) production impacts using the CERES-Maize crop model in a climate-sensitive region with a variety of farming systems (Panama). Segunda coa (autumn) maize yield in Panama currently suffers occasionally from high water stress at the end of the growing season, however under future climate conditions warmer temperatures accelerate crop maturation and elevated CO (sub 2) concentrations improve water retention. This combination reduces end-of-season water stresses and eventually leads to small mean yield gains according to median projections, although accelerated maturation reduces yields in seasons with low water stresses. Calibrations of cultivar traits, soil profile, and fertilizer amounts are most important for representing baseline yields, however sensitivity to all management factors is reduced in an assessment of future yield changes (most dramatically for fertilizers), suggesting that yield changes may be more generalizable than absolute yields. Uncertainty around General Circulation Model (GCM)s' projected changes in rainfall gain in importance throughout the century, with yield changes strongly correlated with growing season rainfall totals. Climate changes are expected to be obscured by the large inter-annual variations in Panamanian climate that will continue to be the dominant influence on seasonal maize yield into the coming decades. The relatively high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios show little difference in their impact on future maize yields until the end of the century. Uncertainties related to the sensitivity of CERES-Maize to carbon dioxide concentrations have a substantial influence on projected changes, and remain a significant obstacle to climate change impacts assessment. Finally, an investigation into the potential of simple statistical yield emulators based upon key climate variables characterizes the important uncertainties behind the selection of climate change metrics and their performance against more complex process-based crop model simulations, revealing a danger in relying only on long-term mean quantities for crop impact assessment.

Maize↗