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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

Radio and millimeter monitoring of Sgr A{sup ⋆}: Spectrum, variability, and constraints on the G2 encounter

We report new observations with the Very Large Array, Atacama Large Millimeter Array, and Submillimeter Array at frequencies from 1.0 to 355 GHz of the Galactic Center black hole, Sagittarius A*. These observations were conducted between 2012 October and 2014 November. While we see variability over the whole spectrum with an amplitude as large as a factor of 2 at millimeter wavelengths, we find no evidence for a change in the mean flux density or spectrum of Sgr A* that can be attributed to interaction with the G2 source. The absence of a bow shock at low frequencies is consistent with a cross-sectional area for G2 that is less than 2×10{sup 29} cm{sup 2}. This result fits with several model predictions including a magnetically arrested cloud, a pressure-confined stellar wind, and a stellar photosphere of a binary merger. There is no evidence for enhanced accretion onto the black hole driving greater jet and/or accretion flow emission. Finally, we measure the millimeter wavelength spectral index of Sgr A* to be flat; combined with previous measurements, this suggests that there is no spectral break between 230 and 690 GHz. The emission region is thus likely in a transition between optically thick and thin at these frequencies and requires a mix of lepton distributions with varying temperatures consistent with stratification.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Transition Path Analysis Yields a Statistical Understanding of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in an Idealized Model

Abstract Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting) and characterizing the statistics of events of a given severity (the risk climatology). Each event has a different duration and spatial structure, making it hard to define an objective “average event.” We argue here that transition path theory (TPT), a stochastic process framework, is an appropriate tool for the task. We demonstrate TPT’s capacities on a wave–mean flow model of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) developed by Holton and Mass, which is idealized enough for transparent TPT analysis but complex enough to demonstrate computational scalability. Whereas a recent article (Finkel et al. 2021) studied near-term SSW predictability, the present article uses TPT to link predictability to long-term SSW frequency. This requires not only forecasting forward in time from an initial condition, but also backward in time to assess the probability of the initial conditions themselves. TPT enables one to condition the dynamics on the regime transition occurring, and thus visualize its physical drivers with a vector field called the reactive current . The reactive current shows that before an SSW, dissipation and stochastic forcing drive a slow decay of vortex strength at lower altitudes. The response of upper-level winds is late and sudden, occurring only after the transition is almost complete from a probabilistic point of view. This case study demonstrates that TPT quantities, visualized in a space of physically meaningful variables, can help one understand the dynamics of regime transitions.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2013

Statistical Analysis and Modeling of Occupancy Patterns in Open-Plan Offices using Measured Lighting-Switch Data

Occupancy profile is one of the driving factors behind discrepancies between the measured and simulated energy consumption of buildings. The frequencies of occupants leaving their offices and the corresponding durations of absences have significant impact on energy use and the operational controls of buildings. This study used statistical methods to analyze the occupancy status, based on measured lighting-switch data in five-minute intervals, for a total of 200 open-plan (cubicle) offices. Five typical occupancy patterns were identified based on the average daily 24-hour profiles of the presence of occupants in their cubicles. These statistical patterns were represented by a one-square curve, a one-valley curve, a two-valley curve, a variable curve, and a flat curve. The key parameters that define the occupancy model are the average occupancy profile together with probability distributions of absence duration, and the number of times an occupant is absent from the cubicle. The statistical results also reveal that the number of absence occurrences decreases as total daily presence hours decrease, and the duration of absence from the cubicle decreases as the frequency of absence increases. The developed occupancy model captures the stochastic nature of occupants moving in and out of cubicles, and can be used to generate a more realistic occupancy schedule. This is crucial for improving the evaluation of the energy saving potential of occupancy based technologies and controls using building simulations. Finally, to demonstrate the use of the occupancy model, weekday occupant schedules were generated and discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

TESTING THE PROPAGATING FLUCTUATIONS MODEL WITH A LONG, GLOBAL ACCRETION DISK SIMULATION

The broadband variability of many accreting systems displays characteristic structures; log-normal flux distributions, root-mean square (rms)-flux relations, and long inter-band lags. These characteristics are usually interpreted as inward propagating fluctuations of the mass accretion rate in an accretion disk driven by stochasticity of the angular momentum transport mechanism. We present the first analysis of propagating fluctuations in a long-duration, high-resolution, global three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of a geometrically thin ( h / r ≈ 0.1) accretion disk around a black hole. While the dynamical-timescale turbulent fluctuations in the Maxwell stresses are too rapid to drive radially coherent fluctuations in the accretion rate, we find that the low-frequency quasi-periodic dynamo action introduces low-frequency fluctuations in the Maxwell stresses, which then drive the propagating fluctuations. Examining both the mass accretion rate and emission proxies, we recover log-normality, linear rms-flux relations, and radial coherence that would produce inter-band lags. Hence, we successfully relate and connect the phenomenology of propagating fluctuations to modern MHD accretion disk theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming

Spatially compounding extremes pose substantial threats to globally interconnected socio-economic systems. In this study we use multiple large ensemble simulations of the high-emissions scenario to show increased risk of compound droughts during the boreal summer over ten global regions. Relative to the late twentieth century, the probability of compound droughts increases by ~40% and ~60% by the middle and late twenty-first century, respectively, with a disproportionate increase in risk across North America and the Amazon. These changes contribute to an approximately ninefold increase in agricultural area and population exposure to severe compound droughts with continued fossil-fuel dependence. ENSO is the predominant large-scale driver of compound droughts with 68% of historical events occurring during El Niño or La Niña conditions. With ENSO teleconnections remaining largely stationary in the future, a ~22% increase in frequency of ENSO events combined with projected warming drives the elevated risk of compound droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Magnetohydrodynamic simulations of global accretion disks with vertical magnetic fields

We report results of three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) simulations of global accretion disks threaded with weak vertical magnetic fields. We perform the simulations in the spherical coordinates with different temperature profiles and accordingly different rotation profiles. In the cases with a spatially constant temperature, because the rotation frequency is vertically constant in the equilibrium condition, general properties of the turbulence excited by magnetorotational instability are quantitatively similar to those obtained in local shearing box simulations. On the other hand, in the cases with a radially variable temperature profile, the vertical differential rotation, which is inevitable in the equilibrium condition, winds up the magnetic field lines in addition to the usual radial differential rotation. As a result, the coherent wound magnetic fields contribute to the Maxwell stress in the surface regions. We obtain nondimensional density and velocity fluctuations ∼0.1-0.2 at the midplane. The azimuthal power spectra of the magnetic fields show shallower slopes, ∼m {sup 0} – m {sup –1}, than those of velocity and density. The Poynting flux associated with the MHD turbulence drives intermittent and structured disk winds as well as sound-like waves toward the midplane. The mass accretion mainly occurs near the surfaces, and the gas near the midplane slowly moves outward in the time domain of the present simulations. The vertical magnetic fields are also dragged inward in the surface regions, while they stochastically move outward and inward around the midplane. We also discuss an observational implication of induced spiral structure in the simulated turbulent disks.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Viral Envelope Evolution in Simian–HIV-Infected Neonate and Adult-Dam Pairs of Rhesus Macaques

We recently demonstrated that Simian–HIV (SHIV)-infected neonate rhesus macaques (RMs) generated heterologous HIV-1 neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) with broadly-NAb (bNAb) characteristics at a higher frequency compared with their corresponding dam. Here, we characterized genetic diversity in Env sequences from four neonate or adult/dam RM pairs: in two pairs, neonate and dam RMs made heterologous HIV-1 NAbs; in one pair, neither the neonate nor the dam made heterologous HIV-1 NAbs; and in another pair, only the neonate made heterologous HIV-1 NAbs. Phylogenetic and sequence diversity analyses of longitudinal Envs revealed that a higher genetic diversity, within the host and away from the infecting SHIV strain, was correlated with heterologous HIV-1 NAb development. We identified 22 Env variable sites, of which 9 were associated with heterologous HIV-1 NAb development; 3/9 sites had mutations previously linked to HIV-1 Env bNAb development. These data suggested that viral diversity drives heterologous HIV-1 NAb development, and the faster accumulation of viral diversity in neonate RMs may be a potential mechanism underlying bNAb induction in pediatric populations. Moreover, these data may inform candidate Env immunogens to guide precursor B cells to bNAb status via vaccination by the Env-based selection of bNAb lineage members with the appropriate mutations associated with neutralization breadth.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electron kinetics in a positive column of AC discharges in a dynamic regime

Abstract We have performed hybrid kinetic-fluid simulations of a positive column in alternating current (AC) argon discharges over a range of driving frequencies f and gas pressure p for the conditions when the spatial nonlocality of the electron energy distribution function (EEDF) is substantial. Our simulations confirmed that the most efficient conditions of plasma maintenance are observed in the dynamic regime when time modulations of mean electron energy (temperature) are substantial. The minimal values of the root mean square electric field and the electron temperature have been observed at f/p values of about 3 kHz Torr −1 in a tube of radius R = 1 cm. The ionization rate and plasma density reached maximal values under these conditions. The numerical solution of a kinetic equation allowed accounting for the kinetic effects associated with spatial and temporal nonlocality of the EEDF. Using the kinetic energy of electrons as an independent variable, we solved an anisotropic tensor diffusion equation in phase space. We clarified the role of different flux components during electron diffusion in phase space over surfaces of constant total energy. We have shown that the kinetic theory uncovers a more exciting and rich physics than the classical ambipolar diffusion (Schottky) model. Non-monotonic radial distributions of excitation rates, metastable densities, and plasma density have been observed in our simulations at pR > 6 Torr cm. The predicted off-axis plasma density peak in the dynamic regime has never been observed in experiments so far. We hope our results stimulate further experimental studies of the AC positive column. The kinetic analysis could help uncover new physics even for such a well-known plasma object as a positive column in noble gases.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Inundation and Sediment Supply Predict Annual but Not Centennial Carbon Accumulation in Tidal Wetlands Across Land‐Use Types

Despite growing interest in the contributions of tidal wetlands to natural climate solutions, data remain scarce on how land use affects their carbon accumulation rates (CAR). Additionally, environmental factors driving the large observed variability in CAR among sites are poorly understood. To address these knowledge gaps, we measured short-term (∼1 year) and long-term (∼100 years) CAR using feldspar marker horizons, 210 Pb profiles, and surface elevation tables from 39 sites in seven estuaries in Oregon and Washington, USA. Sites varied in wetland type (tidal marsh, tidal swamp, nontidal pasture), land-use history (reference, restored, and disturbed), and salinity (fresh to polyhaline). Across both timescales, CAR was lowest in disturbed pastures and highest in restored marshes, reflecting patterns in sediment accretion rates. Short-term CAR exceeded long-term CAR by approximately 50% on average and was only weakly correlated with long-term CAR, with differences among hydrogeomorphic setting. Short-term CAR was well predicted by summer inundation frequency and relative sediment load, together explaining 60% of variance, whereas long-term CAR was poorly predicted by contemporary environmental conditions. These findings highlight the importance of aligning predictor and response timescales when modeling blue carbon dynamics, and reinforce the climate mitigation potential of tidal wetland restoration.

land use and land cover change↗
DOE OSTI2025

Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic

Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. Here, in this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. Future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers.

atmospheric dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2017

Testing the Accuracy of Data-driven MHD Simulations of Active Region Evolution

Models for the evolution of the solar coronal magnetic field are vital for understanding solar activity, yet the best measurements of the magnetic field lie at the photosphere, necessitating the development of coronal models which are “data-driven” at the photosphere. We present an investigation to determine the feasibility and accuracy of such methods. Our validation framework uses a simulation of active region (AR) formation, modeling the emergence of magnetic flux from the convection zone to the corona, as a ground-truth data set, to supply both the photospheric information and to perform the validation of the data-driven method. We focus our investigation on how the accuracy of the data-driven model depends on the temporal frequency of the driving data. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory produces full-disk vector magnetic field measurements at a 12-minute cadence. Using our framework we show that ARs that emerge over 25 hr can be modeled by the data-driving method with only ∼1% error in the free magnetic energy, assuming the photospheric information is specified every 12 minutes. However, for rapidly evolving features, under-sampling of the dynamics at this cadence leads to a strobe effect, generating large electric currents and incorrect coronal morphology and energies. We derive a sampling condition for the driving cadence based on the evolution of these small-scale features, and show that higher-cadence driving can lead to acceptable errors. Future work will investigate the source of errors associated with deriving plasma variables from the photospheric magnetograms as well as other sources of errors, such as reduced resolution, instrument bias, and noise.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Merging flux-variance with surface renewal methods in the roughness sublayer and the atmospheric surface layer

In this article, Two micrometeorological methods utilizing high-frequency sampled air temperature were tested against eddy covariance (EC) sensible heat flux (𝐻) measurements at three sites representing agricultural, agro-forestry, and forestry systems. The two methods cover conventional and newly proposed forms of the flux-variance (FV) and surface renewal (SR) schemes of differing complexities. The sites represent measurements in surface, roughness, and roughness to surface transitional layers. Regression analyzes against EC show that the most reliable FV and SR forms estimate 𝐻 with slopes within ±10% from unity and coefficient of determination 𝑅2 > 0.9 across all the three sites. The best performance of both FV and SR was found at the agricultural site with measurements well within the surface layer, while the worst was found for the tall forest with measurements within the roughness sublayer where its thickness needed to be additionally estimated. The main variable driving 𝐻 in FV is the temperature variance, whereas in SR, it is the geometry of ramp-like structures. Since these structures are also responsible for most of the temperature variance, a novel FV-SR approach emerging from combining the methods is proposed and evaluated against EC measurements and conventional FV and SR schemes. The proposed FV-SR approach requiring only a single fast response thermocouple is potentially independent of calibration and ameliorates some of the theoretical objections that arise when combining ramp statistics with similarity arguments. The combination of methods also provides new insights into the contribution of coherent structures to the temperature variance and its dependence on atmospheric stratification. Other potential utility of the new method is to include it in multi-tool assessments of surface energy fluxes, since a convergence or divergence of the results has a high diagnostic value.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Orthogonal control of expression mean and variance by epigenetic features at different genomic loci

While gene expression noise has been shown to drive dramatic phenotypic variations, the molecular basis for this variability in mammalian systems is not well understood. Gene expression has been shown to be regulated by promoter architecture and the associated chromatin environment. However, the exact contribution of these two factors in regulating expression noise has not been explored. Using a dual-reporter lentiviral model system, we deconvolved the influence of the promoter sequence to systematically study the contribution of the chromatin environment at different genomic locations in regulating expression noise. By integrating a large-scale analysis to quantify mRNA levels by smFISH and protein levels by flow cytometry in single cells, we found that mean expression and noise are uncorrelated across genomic locations. Furthermore, we showed that this independence could be explained by the orthogonal control of mean expression by the transcript burst size and noise by the burst frequency. Finally, we showed that genomic locations displaying higher expression noise are associated with more repressed chromatin, thereby indicating the contribution of the chromatin environment in regulating expression noise.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

PERFORMING DIAGNOSTICS ON THE SPALLATION NEUTRON SOURCE VISION BEAM LINE TO ELIMINATE HIGH VIBRATION LEVELS AND PROVIDE A SUSTAINABLE OPERATION

The Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) provides variable energy neutrons for a variety of experiments. The neutrons proceed down beam lines to the experiment hall, which houses a variety of experiments and test articles. Each beam line has one or more neutron choppers which filter the neutron beam based on the neutron energy by using a rotating neutron absorbing material passing through the neutron beam. Excessive vibration of the Vision beam line, believed to be caused by the T0 chopper, prevented the Vision beam line from operating at full capacity. This problem had been addressed several times by rebalancing/reworking the T0 beam chopper but the problem stubbornly persisted. To determine the cause of the high vibration, dynamic testing was performed. Twenty-seven accelerometer and motor current channels of data were collected during drive up, drive down, coast down, and steady-state conditions; resonance testing and motor current signature analysis were also performed. The data was analyzed for traditional mechanical/machinery issues such as misalignment and imbalance using time series analysis, frequency domain analysis, and operating deflection shape analysis. The analysis showed that the chopper base plate was experiencing an amplified response to the excitation provided by the T0 beam chopper. The amplified response was diagnosed to be caused by higher than expected base plate flexibility, possibly due to improper grouting or loose floor anchors. Based on this diagnosis, a decision was made to dismantle the beam line chopper and remount the base plate. Neutron activation of the beam line components make modifications to the beam line especially expensive and time consuming due to the radiation handling requirements, so this decision had significant financial and schedule implications. It was found that the base plate was indeed loose because of improper grouting during its initial installation. The base plate was modified by splitting it into multiple sections, isolating the T0 chopper from the rest of the beam line, and each section was then reinstalled and re-grouted. After these modifications, the vibration levels were reduced by a factor of 30. The reduction in vibration level was sufficient to allow the Vision beam line to operate at full capacity for the first time since its completed construction date.

: Diagnostics↗
DOE OSTI2013

BROAD ABSORPTION LINE VARIABILITY ON MULTI-YEAR TIMESCALES IN A LARGE QUASAR SAMPLE

We present a detailed investigation of the variability of 428 C IV and 235 Si IV broad absorption line (BAL) troughs identified in multi-epoch observations of 291 quasars by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-I/II/III. These observations primarily sample rest-frame timescales of 1-3.7 yr over which significant rearrangement of the BAL wind is expected. We derive a number of observational results on, e.g., the frequency of BAL variability, the velocity range over which BAL variability occurs, the primary observed form of BAL-trough variability, the dependence of BAL variability upon timescale, the frequency of BAL strengthening versus weakening, correlations between BAL variability and BAL-trough profiles, relations between C IV and Si IV BAL variability, coordinated multi-trough variability, and BAL variations as a function of quasar properties. We assess implications of these observational results for quasar winds. Our results support models where most BAL absorption is formed within an order-of-magnitude of the wind-launching radius, although a significant minority of BAL troughs may arise on larger scales. We estimate an average lifetime for a BAL trough along our line-of-sight of a few thousand years. BAL disappearance and emergence events appear to be extremes of general BAL variability, rather than being qualitatively distinct phenomena. We derive the parameters of a random-walk model for BAL EW variability, finding that this model can acceptably describe some key aspects of EW variability. The coordinated trough variability of BAL quasars with multiple troughs suggests that changes in 'shielding gas' may play a significant role in driving general BAL variability.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Subsurface Redox Interactions Regulate Ebullitive Methane Flux in Heterogeneous Mississippi River Deltaic Wetland

Abstract As interfaces connecting terrestrial and ocean ecosystems, coastal wetlands develop temporally and spatially complex redox conditions, which drive uncertainties in greenhouse gas emission as well as the total carbon budget of the coastal ecosystem. To evaluate the role of complex redox reactions in methane emission from coastal wetlands, a coupled reactive‐transport model was configured to represent subsurface biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur, along with production and transport of multiple gas species through diffusion and ebullition. This model study was conducted at multiple sites along a salinity gradient in the Barataria Basin at the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain. Over a freshwater to saline gradient, simulated total flux of methane was primarily controlled by its subsurface production and consumption, which were determined by redox reactions directly (e.g., methanogenesis, methanotrophy) and indirectly (e.g., competition with sulfate reduction) under aerobic and/or anaerobic conditions. At fine spatiotemporal scales, surface methane fluxes were also strongly dependent on transport processes, with episodic ebullitive fluxes leading to higher spatial and temporal variability compared to the gradient‐driven diffusion flux. Ebullitive methane fluxes were determined by methane fraction in total ebullitive gas and the frequency of ebullitive events, both of which varied with subsurface methane concentrations and other gas species. Although ebullition thresholds are constrained by local physical factors, this study indicates that redox interactions not only determine gas composition in ebullitive fluxes but can also regulate ebullition frequency through gas production.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scattering of radiofrequency waves by randomly modulated density interfaces in the edge of fusion plasmas

In the scrape-off layer and the edge region of a tokamak, the plasma is strongly turbulent and scatters the radiofrequency (RF) electromagnetic waves that propagate through this region. It is important to know the spectral properties of these scattered RF waves, whether used for diagnostics or for heating and current drive. The spectral changes influence the interpretation of the obtained diagnostic data, and the current and heating profiles. A full-wave, three-dimensional (3-D) electromagnetic code ScaRF has been developed for studying the RF wave propagation through turbulent plasma. ScaRF is a finite-difference frequency-domain (FDFD) method used for solving Maxwell's equations. The magnetized plasma is defined through the cold plasma by the anisotropic permittivity tensor. As a result, ScaRF can be used to study the scattering of any cold plasma RF wave. It can also be used for the study of the scattering of electron cyclotron waves in ITER-type and medium-sized tokamaks such as TCV, ASDEX-U and DIII-D. For the case of medium-sized tokamaks, there is experimental evidence that drift waves and rippling modes are present in the edge region. Hence, we have studied the scattering of RF waves by periodic density interfaces (plasma gratings) in the form of a superposition of spatial modes with varying periodicity and random amplitudes. The power reflection coefficient (a random variable) is calculated for different realizations of the density interface. In this work, the uncertainty of the power reflection coefficient is rigorously quantified by use of the Polynomial Chaos Expansion method in conjunction with the Smolyak sparse-grid integration, which is known as the PCE-SG method. The PCE-SG method is proven to be accurate and more efficient compared with alternative methods such as the Monte Carlo (MC) approach.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty in Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation derived from different observed datasets and their possible causes

As a leading mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic in both observations and model simulations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) can have a substantial influence on regional and global climate. By using Low-Frequency Component Analysis, we explore the uncertainties of the resulting AMO indices and the corresponding spatial patterns derived from three observational SST datasets. We found that the known coherent spatial pattern of the AMO at the basin scale over the North Atlantic appears in two out of the three datasets. Further analysis indicates that both the warming trend and the different techniques used to construct these observed gridded SSTs contribute to the AMO’s spatial coherence over the North Atlantic, especially during periods of sparse data sampling. The SST in the Extended Reconstructed SST dataset version 5 (ERSSTv5), changes from being systematically below the other datasets during the dense sampling periods on either side of the Second World War (WWII), to systematically above the other datasets during WWII, thereby introducing an artificial 10–20-year variability that affects the AMO’s spatial coherence. This coherence in the AMO’s spatial pattern is also affected by bias adjustment in ERSSTv5 at relative cool (i.e., non-summer) seasons, and by the heterogeneous North Atlantic warming pattern. The different AMO patterns can induce the different effects of wind, surface heat fluxes, and then drive ocean circulation and its heat transport convergence, especially for some seasons. For AMO indices, both the different detrending methods and different observational data result in uncertainty for the period 1935–1950. Such SST uncertainty is important to detect the relative role of the atmosphere and ocean in shaping the AMO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗