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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
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DOE OSTI2024

Tailoring Growth Interfaces of Virtual Substrates for Power Electronics

Power electronics materials are poised to play a critical role in fulfilling next generation energy needs, with up to 90% of future energy demand predicted to flow through power electronics at some point. AlxGa1-xN ranks high among candidate materials, having bipolar dopability, thermal and chemical stability and an ultra-wide bandgap. However, AlGaN growth is limited by a lack of lattice-matched substrates, ultimately stunting material quality at higher thicknesses needed for power electronics applications. Further, high power applications increasingly call for fully vertical device structures, necessitating a conductive substrate. Recently our group identified the (111) plane of TaC as a conductive surface lattice-matched to Al0.55Ga0.45N, taking inspiration from prior work of AlN and GaN binaries on carbide and boride substrates. In this talk we demonstrate the growth of (111)-oriented TaC by RF sputtering. We investigate the interface of TaC with sapphire and SiC substrates and identify means to suppress competing Ta2C nucleation in order to stabilize (111)-oriented TaC. Potential stacking sequences are identified with respect to crystal structure and observed twinning in the TaC films. We next assess structural changes and film recrystallization that results from face-to-face annealing of TaC thin films at high temperatures above 1500 degrees C. Changes to grain structure and domain size are assessed by x-ray diffraction and surface morphology is explored using atomic force microscopy. Figure 1 shows significant improvements to in- and out-of-plane strain following annealing along with the formation of terraced step edges at the film surface. Strain as a function of material composition and thickness is considered, as this may play a major role in future nucleation of AlGaN layers. (1) R. J. in a face-to-face configuration, as illustrated in the schematic at left. Kaplar et al 2017, ECS J. Solid State Sci. Technol. 6 Q3061; (2) D. M. Roberts et al 2022, https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.11769; (3) T. Aizawa et al 2008, J Crys Growth 310, 1 22; (4) R. Liu et al 2002, Appl. Phys. Lett. 81, 3182-3184.

ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Height-resolved emission spectroscopy and high-speed imaging of the TiAl6V4 vapor plume under laser powder bed fusion conditions

Optical emission spectroscopy is increasingly used as an in situ monitoring technique during laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) because plume emission holds elemental information not found in other in situ sensing techniques. This work explores the shape, stability, and temperature of the emission plume above the melt pool of Ti6Al4 V undergoing laser scans under LPBF-like processing conditions, using high-speed video and height-resolved spectroscopy to study the details of plume dynamics. Optical emission spectroscopy is conducted in the 480 nm to 525 nm region, where Ti emission is strong, with 0.3 mm vertical resolution above the baseplate. The Boltzmann plot method is used to determine temperature at each probed elevation, which indicates that the hottest location of the plume is occasionally elevated 0.3 mm to 0.6 mm above the scanning surface. The results show that the plume shape, stability, temperature, and spectra are highly dependent on the processing conditions. We highlight some of the complexities of optical emission spectroscopy and discuss potential challenges for implementing optical emission spectroscopy across an entire build.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

New methods to improve the vertical extrapolation of near-surface offshore wind speeds

Accurate characterization of the offshore wind resource has been hindered by a sparsity of wind speed observations that span offshore wind turbine rotor-swept heights. Although public availability of floating lidar data is increasing, most offshore wind speed observations continue to come from buoy-based and satellite-based near-surface measurements. The aim of this study is to develop and validate novel vertical extrapolation methods that can accurately estimate wind speed time series across rotor-swept heights using these near-surface measurements. We contrast the conventional logarithmic profile against three novel approaches: a logarithmic profile with a long-term stability correction, a single-column model, and a machine-learning model. These models are developed and validated using 1 year of observations from two floating lidars deployed in US Atlantic offshore wind energy areas. We find that the machine-learning model significantly outperforms all other models across all stability regimes, seasons, and times of day. Machine-learning model performance is considerably improved by including the air–sea temperature difference, which provides some accounting for offshore atmospheric stability. Finally, we find no degradation in machine-learning model performance when tested 83 km from its training location, suggesting promising future applications in extrapolating 10 m wind speeds from spatially resolved satellite-based wind atlases.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Low-Rate Cycling Regeneration Sustains NMC811–Graphite Battery Performance through Extreme Ultrafast Charging

Urban air mobility (UAM) systems, such as electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, require batteries capable of extreme ultrafast charging to support high-frequency operations. Here, in this work, we evaluate the electrochemical stability of NMC811–graphite full cells using a complex mixed-modal protocol designed to simulate the aggressive turnaround demands of UAM missions. We demonstrate that incorporating a periodic low-rate (0.3C) “regeneration” cycle enables cells to maintain 96% capacity retention over 900 cycles, despite repeated exposure to ultrafast pulses. To validate the efficacy of this regeneration mechanism, we performed simplified control experiments comparing continuous 10C charging against a 10C–0.3C interleaved protocol. Advanced characterization reveals that while mechanical particle fracture is pervasive at these rates, the regeneration cycles decelerate the electrochemical degradation by resolving spatially heterogeneous Ni oxidation states and relaxing lithium-ion concentration gradients. These findings provide a vital mechanistic framework for battery operation, proving that restorative charging can effectively delay and mitigate failure in demanding UAM applications.

batteries↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implementation and Exploration of Parameterizations of Large-Scale Dynamics in NCAR's Single Column Atmosphere Model SCAM6

A single column model with parameterized large-scale (LS) dynamics is used to better understand the response of steady-state tropical precipitation to relative sea surface temperature under various representations of radiation, convection, and circulation. The large-scale dynamics are parametrized via the weak temperature gradient (WTG), damped gravity wave (DGW), and spectral weak temperature gradient (Spectral WTG) method in NCAR's Single Column Atmosphere Model (SCAM6). Radiative cooling is either specified or interactive, and the convective parameterization is run using two different values of a parameter that controls the degree of convective inhibition. Results are interpreted in the context of the Global Atmospheric System Studies -Weak Temperature Gradient (GASS-WTG) Intercomparison project. Using the same parameter settings and simulation configuration as in the GASS-WTG Intercomparison project, SCAM6 under the WTG and DGW methods produces erratic results, suggestive of numerical instability. However, when key parameters are changed to weaken the large-scale circulation's damping of tropospheric temperature variations, SCAM6 performs comparably to single column models in the GASS-WTG Intercomparison project. The Spectral WTG method is less sensitive to changes in convection and radiation than are the other two methods, performing qualitatively similarly across all configurations considered. Under all three methods, circulation strength, represented in 1D by grid-scale vertical velocity, is decreased when barriers to convection are reduced. This effect is most extreme under specified radiative cooling, and is shown to come from increased static stability in the column's reference radiative-convective equilibrium profile. This argument can be extended to interactive radiation cases as well, though perhaps less conclusively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Tailoring Growth Interfaces of Virtual Substrates for Power Electronics

Power electronics materials are poised to play a critical role in fulfilling next generation energy needs, with up to 90% of future energy demand predicted to flow through power electronics at some point.[1] Among a number of candidate materials, AlxGa1-xN is the strongest, having bipolar dopability, thermal and chemical stability, an ultra-wide bandgap, and demonstrated experimental feasibility. However, AlGaN growth is limited by a lack of lattice-matched substrates, ultimately stunting material quality at higher thicknesses needed for power electronics applications. Further, high power applications increasingly call for fully vertical device structures, necessitating a conductive substrate. [1] Recently our group identified the (111) plane of TaC as a conductive surface lattice-matched to Al0.55Ga0.45N, taking inspiration from prior work of AlN and GaN binaries on carbide and boride substrates. [2,3,4] In this talk we demonstrate the growth of (111)-oriented TaC by RF sputtering. We investigate the interface of TaC with sapphire and SiC substrates and identify means to suppress competing Ta2C nucleation in order to stabilize (111)-oriented TaC. Potential stacking sequences are identified with respect to crystal structure and observed twinning in the TaC films. We next assess structural changes and film recrystallization that results from face-to-face annealing of TaC thin films at high temperatures above 1500 degrees Celsius. Changes to grain structure and domain size are assessed by x-ray diffraction and surface morphology is explored using atomic force microscopy. Figure 1 shows significant improvements to in- and out-of-plane strain following annealing along with the formation of terraced step edges at the film surface. Strain as a function of material composition and thickness is considered, as this may play a major role in future nucleation of AlGaN layers.

CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND SU↗
DOE OSTI2021

Research on the Influence Mechanism of the High‐Steep Slope on the Deformation Characteristics of Bridge Substructure

With the development of the Chinese railway, the high‐steep slope is irreversible to be faced; especially under severe conditions such as heavy rainfall and earthquake, this kind of slope is prone to geological disasters, which seriously affects the safety and stability of the bridge substructure. Aiming to this, long‐term monitorization and numerical analysis were carried out in this research, and the influence mechanism of the high‐steep slopes on the stress and deformation characteristics of the bridge structure was studied. The research results show that under the effect of rainfall and earthquake, the original stress balance in the high‐steep slope is broken, and the possibility of landslide thrust increases; under the comprehensive impact of residual landslide thrust, traction force at slope foot, vertical gravity of bridge slab and vehicle, and the bridge cap will deform. Besides, the deformation of the bridge pier exceeds the allowable lateral displacement of the top of the bridge pier, reaching 111.7%∼112.4% of the limit, which seriously affects the stability of the bridge structure and the safety of the railway service. Therefore, by increasing the support strength of the slope foot and the diameter of the bridge pile foundation, the traction force of the slope foot can be reduced, and the sliding resistance of the bridge pile foundation can be improved so as the safety of the bridge structure can be promoted.

Zhang, Yufang (ORCID:0000000348912060)↗
DOE OSTI2023

1 kV Self-Aligned Vertical GaN Superjunction Diode

This work demonstrates vertical GaN superjunction (SJ) diodes fabricated via a novel self-aligned process. The SJ comprises n-GaN pillars wrapped by the charge-balanced p-type nickel oxide (NiO). After the NiO sputtering around GaN pillars, the self-aligned process exposes the top pillar surfaces without the need for additional lithography or a patterned NiO etching which is usually difficult. The GaN SJ diode shows a breakdown voltage (B V) of 1100 V, a specific on-resistance (R ON ) of 0.4 mΩ· cm2, and a SJ drift-region resistance ( R dr ) of 0.13 mΩ· cm2. Further, the device also exhibits good thermal stability with B V retained over 1 kV and R ON dropped to 0.3 mΩ· cm2 at 125°C. The trade-off between B V and R dr is superior to the 1D GaN limit. These results show the promise of vertical GaN SJ power devices. The self-aligned process is applicable for fabricating the heterogeneous SJ based on various wide- and ultra-wide bandgap semiconductors.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Green-Solvent Processed Blade-Coating Organic Solar Cells with an Efficiency Approaching 19% Enabled by Alkyl-Tailored Acceptors

Power-conversion-efficiencies (PCEs) of organic solar cells (OSCs) in laboratory, normally processed by spin-coating technology with toxic halogenated solvents, have reached over 19%. However, there is usually a marked PCE drop when the blade-coating and/or green-solvents toward large-scale printing are used instead, which hampers the practical development of OSCs. Here, a new series of N-alkyl-tailored small molecule acceptors named YR-SeNF with a same molecular main backbone are developed by combining selenium-fused central-core and naphthalene-fused end-group. Thanks to the N-alkyl engineering, NIR-absorbing YR-SeNF series show different crystallinity, packing patterns, and miscibility with polymeric donor. The studies exhibit that the molecular packing, crystallinity, and vertical distribution of active layer morphologies are well optimized by introducing newly designed guest acceptor associated with tailored N-alkyl chains, providing the improved charge transfer dynamics and stability for the PM6:L8-BO:YR-SeNF-based OSCs. As a result, a record-high PCE approaching 19% is achieved in the blade-coating OSCs fabricated from a green-solvent o-xylene with high-boiling point. Notably, ternary OSCs offer robust operating stability under maximum-power-point tracking and well-keep > 80% of the initial PCEs for even over 400 h. Our alkyl-tailored guest acceptor strategy provides a unique approach to develop green-solvent and blade-coating processed high-efficiency and operating stable OSCs, which paves a way for industrial development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modal dynamics and flutter analysis of floating offshore vertical axis wind turbines

Floating platforms provide vertical axis wind turbines (VAWTs) significant advantages over offshore horizontal axis wind turbines, which has led to increased research interest in offshore VAWT technology. Here, this paper examines dynamic stability of floating VAWTs and presents structural dynamic and aero-elastic flutter analysis of utility-scale 5 MW floating VAWTs by coupling a rotor finite element model with a linearized model for the floating system. The coupled floating VAWT model is utilized to study the effects of tower height, number of blades, blade tapering scheme, and impacts of the floating platform on modal properties and flutter. The study provides important new results and guidance to floating VAWT designers: (1) tower height increase leads to lower tower frequencies more prone to resonance, (2) by moving from land-based foundations to a floating TLP foundation, tower-mode frequency is increased significantly (by 49%–68%) which mitigates resonance and increases the flutter RPM (154% increase), (3) increasing the number of blades reduces the tower mode frequencies for both land-based and floating configuration, and (4) blade chord tapering can have a significant impact on increasing the tower mode flutter RPM. Further, analysis of low-frequency rigid body modes shows a safe, higher flutter RPM relative to the operating RPM.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Reliability Trade-Offs in 1T-nC and 2T-nC FeRAM Designs

Ferroelectric random access memory (FeRAM) is a promising candidate for energy-efficient nonvolatile memory, particularly for logic-in-memory and compute-in-memory (CIM) applications. Among the available cell architectures, One-Transistor–n-Capacitor (1T-nC) and two-transistor–n-capacitor (2T-nC) FeRAMs each offer distinct trade-offs in density, scalability, and reliability. In this work, we present a comparative study of these two architectures under both dimensional scaling ( XY/Z shrinkage) and vertical integration (increasing stacked capacitors per cell). Using technology computer-aided design (TCAD) and circuit-level simulations, we analyze how scaling impacts ferroelectric capacitance, parasitic coupling, and floating-node (FN) dynamics, which together dictate sense margin (SM) and read stability. A key mitigation strategy—floating unselected capacitors—is applied to both architectures, effectively decoupling the SM from the number of stacked capacitors and enabling tractable analysis across scaling regimes. Results show that 1T-nC suffers more from charge sharing with the bitline (BL), while 2T-nC benefits from transistor isolation and stronger low-voltage sensing at the cost of increased area. By systematically evaluating these behaviors across scaling directions, this work establishes the reliability trade-offs of 1T-nC and 2T-nC cells and provides design guidelines for high-density, vertically integrated FeRAM systems.

1T-nC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Synergy of Ion Doping and Spiral Array Architecture on Ti 2 Nb 10 O 29 : A New Way to Achieve High-Power Electrodes

Ameliorating electronic/ionic transport and structural stability of electrode materials is important to the development of power-intensive lithium ion batteries. Despite its great potential as a high-power anode, titanium niobium oxide (Ti 2 Nb 10 O 29 , TNO) still underperforms due to its unsatisfactory electronic/ionic conductivity. In this work, a powerful synergistic strategy by combining ion doping and spiral array architecture to boost high-rate performance of TNO is reported. Cr 3+ doped TNO nanoparticles (Cr-TNO) of 5-10 nm intimately grow on a conductive vertical graphene@TiC-C (VGTC) skeleton, forming novel Cr-TNO@VGTC spiral arrays. The unique spiral growth of TNO is achieved due to the confinement effect of VGTC skeleton. Meanwhile, a more open TNO crystal structure with faster ion transfer paths and enhanced structural stability is realized by Cr 3+ doping, demonstrated via density functional theory calculation and in situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction technique. Benefiting from the superior conductive network, enhanced intrinsic electronic/ionic conductivity of Cr-TNO and reinforced structural stability, the Cr-TNO@VTC arrays show prominent high-power performance with a large capacity of 220 mAh g -1 at 40 C (power density of ≈11 kW kg -1 ) and superior durability (91% retention after 500 cycles). This work provides a new path for the construction of widespread high-power electrodes for fast energy storage.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bounding entanglement entropy with Clifford double cosets

Following on our previous work studying the orbits of quantum states under Clifford circuits via reachability graphs, we introduce contracted graphs whose vertices represent classes of quantum states with the same entropy vector. These contracted graphs represent the double cosets of the Clifford group, where the left cosets are built from the stabilizer subgroup of the starting state and the right cosets are built from the entropy-preserving operators. We study contracted graphs for stabilizer states, as well as 𝑊 states and Dicke states, discussing how the diameter of a state's contracted graph constrains the entropic diversity of its two-qubit Clifford orbit. We derive an upper bound on the number of entropy vectors that can be generated using any 𝑛-qubit Clifford circuit, for any quantum state. Here, we speculate on the holographic implications for the relative proximity of gravitational duals of states within the same Clifford orbit. Although we concentrate on how entropy evolves under the Clifford group, our double-coset formalism, and thus the contracted graph picture, is extendable to generic gate sets and generic state properties.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mechanical Design Progress of the In Situ Nanoprobe Instrument for APS-U

The In Situ Nanoprobe (ISN, 19-ID) beamline will be a new best-in-class long beamline to be constructed as part of the Advanced Photon Source Upgrade (APS-U) project [1, 2]. To achieve long working distance at high spatial resolution, the ISN instrument will be positioned 210 m downstream of the x-ray source, in a dedicated satellite building, currently under construction [3]. The ISN instrument will use a nano-focusing Kirkpatrick-Baez (K-B) mirror system, which will focus hard x-rays to a focal spot as small as 20 nm, with a large working distance of 61 mm. The large working distance provides space for various in situ sample cells for x-ray fluorescence tomography and ptychographic 3D imaging, allows the use of a separate, independent vacuum chambers for the optics and sample, and provides the flexibility to run experiments in vacuum or at ambient pressure. A consequence of the small spot size and large working distance are stringent requirements for high angular stability of the K-B mirrors (5 nrad V-mirror and 16 nrad H-mirror) and high relative stability be-tween focus spot and sample (4 nmRMS). Additional features include fly-scanning up to 2 kg mass, sample plus in situ cell, at 1 mm/s in vertical and/or horizontal directions over an area of 10 mm x 10 mm. Environmental capabili-ties will include heating and cooling, flow of fluids and applied fields, as required for electrochemistry and flow of gases at high temperature for catalysis. To achieve these capabilities and precise requirements we have used precision engineering fundamentals to guide the design process.

Kearney, Steven P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of High Temperature (>700°C) molten Salt Pump Technology for Gen3 Solar Power Tower Systems

Generation 3 Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Systems require thermal energy storage that can efficiently receive solar heat and deliver it to a working fluid at temperatures greater than 700°C. For liquid systems, the thermal transfer fluid must be phase stable over large temperature ranges. High temperature molten salts meet this criteria, but are difficult liquids to handle. The high heat and salt content can be very corrosive to several different materials that are wetted by the liquid salt. For power tower collectors, the molten salt must be pumped under high pressure to the top of the collector tower. These pumps have impellers and shafts as part of their rotating elements, and under load, require bearings to control shaft movement while rotating. These high temperature pumps require submerged bearings, and thus bearing materials that can withstand the temperature and molten salt contact over long periods of time. This is essential for keeping pump maintenance costs low, and downtime to a minimum. Long running bearing materials is an enabling technology for integrated liquid systems in Generation 3 CSP Systems. Keeping costs low and systems reliable are critical for the broad adoption of Gen 3 CSP Systems. Hayward Tyler, Inc (HTI) proposed development of journal bearing materials for use in vertical pumps designed for pumping high temperature molten salt on both the hot and cold sides of the solar power tower. To complete this objective, HTI utilized the testing capabilities of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and High Temperature System Design (HTSD). Materials would first be selected for static corrosion testing, then downselected for tribological testing. Successful tribologically tested materials would then be downselected for use in additional test regimes. Ten samples were selected for static corrosion testing. Three passed the static testing regime. Two of these materials were downselected for ball material in tribological testing against three metallic alloys: Sintered Y2O3 Partially Stabilized Zirconia YTZP and Silicon Nitride, Grade 147-31N. HTI also proposed collecting data from a thorough bearing test regime using a test rig designed and built as part of this project, and also a conceptual design for a high temperature molten salt vertical pump. HTI withdrew from the project prior to completion of this work and this report reflects only the work completed prior to withdrawal. The completed work produced two papers, one manuscript submitted for publication, and one paper published in the journal Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells. The papers are: “Tribological behavior of ceramic-alloy bearing contacts in molten salt lubrication for concentrating solar power” and “Material Selection and Corrosion Studies Of Candidate Bearing Materials For Use In Molten Chloride Salt."

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Identification and Characterization of Persistent Cold Pool Events from Temperature and Wind Profilers in the Columbia River Basin

Cold pool events occur when deep layers of stable, cold air remain trapped in a valley or basin for multiple days, without mixing out from daytime heating. With large impacts on air quality, freezing events, and es-pecially on wind energy production, they are often poorly forecast by modern mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Understanding the characteristics of cold pools is, therefore, important to provide more accurate forecasts. This study analyzes cold pool characteristics with data collected during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2), which took place in the Columbia River basin and Gorge of Oregon and Washington from fall 2015 until spring 2017. A subset of the instrumentation included three microwave radiometer pro?lers, six radar wind pro?lers with radio acoustic sounding systems, and seven sodars, which together provided seven sites with collocated vertical pro?les of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction. Using these collocated observations, we developed a set of criteria to determine if a cold pool was present based on stability, wind speed, direction, and temporal continuity, and then developed an automated algorithm based on these criteria to identify all cold pool events over the 18 months of the ?eld project. Characteristics of these events are described, including statistics of the wind speed distributions and pro?les, stability conditions, cold pool depths, and descent rates of the cold pool top. The goal of this study is a better understanding of these characteristics and their processes to ultimately lead to improved physical parameterizations in NWP models, and consequently improve forecasts of cold pool events in the study region as well at other locations that experiences similar events.

McCaffrey, Katherine L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Direct and semi-direct radiative forcing of biomass-burning aerosols over the southeast Atlantic (SEA) and its sensitivity to absorbing properties: a regional climate modeling study

Simulations are performed for the period 2000-2015 by two different regional climate models, ALADIN and RegCM, to quantify the direct and semi-direct radiative effects of biomass-burning aerosols (BBAs) in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) region. Different simulations have been performed using strongly absorbing BBAs in accordance with recent in situ observations over the SEA. For the July-August-September (JAS) season, the single scattering albedo (SSA) and total aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulated by the ALADIN and RegCM models are consistent with the MACv2 climatology and MERRA-2 and CAMS-RA reanalyses near the biomass-burning emission sources. However, the above-cloud AOD is slightly underestimated compared to satellite (MODIS and POLDER) data during the transport over the SEA. The direct radiative effect exerted at the continental and oceanic surfaces by BBAs is significant in both models and the radiative effects at the top of the atmosphere indicate a remarkable regional contrast over SEA (in all-sky conditions), with a cooling (warming) north (south) of 10°S, which is in agreement with the recent MACv2 climatology. In addition, the two models indicate that BBAs are responsible for an important shortwave radiative heating of ~0.5-1K per day over SEA during JAS with maxima between 2 and 4 km a.m.s.l. (above mean sea level). At these altitudes, BBAs increase air temperature by ~0.2-0.5 K, with the highest values being co-located with low stratocumulus clouds. Vertical changes in air temperature limit the subsidence of air mass over SEA, creating a cyclonic anomaly. The opposite effect is simulated over the continent due to the increase in lower troposphere stability. The BBA semi-direct effect on the lower troposphere circulation is found to be consistent between the two models. Changes in the cloud fraction are moderate in response to the presence of smoke, and the models differ over the Gulf of Guinea. Finally, the results indicate an important sensitivity of the direct and semi-direct effects to the absorbing properties of BBAs. Over the stratocumulus (Sc) region, DRE varies from +0.94 W m -2 (scattering BBAs) to +3.93 W m -2 (most absorbing BBAs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing physics-based input features within a machine learning model to predict wind speed forecasting error

Machine learning is quickly becoming a commonly used technique for wind speed and power forecasting. Many machine learning methods utilize exogenous variables as input features, but there remains the question of which atmospheric variables are most beneficial for forecasting, especially in handling non-linearities that lead to forecasting error. This question is addressed via creation of a hybrid model that utilizes an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model to make an initial wind speed forecast followed by a random forest model that attempts to predict the ARIMA forecasting error using knowledge of exogenous atmospheric variables. Variables conveying information about atmospheric stability and turbulence as well as inertial forcing are found to be useful in dealing with non-linear error prediction. Streamwise wind speed, time of day, turbulence intensity, turbulent heat flux, vertical velocity, and wind direction are found to be particularly useful when used in unison for hourly and 3 h timescales. The prediction accuracy of the developed ARIMA–random forest hybrid model is compared to that of the persistence and bias-corrected ARIMA models. The ARIMA–random forest model is shown to improve upon the latter commonly employed modeling methods, reducing hourly forecasting error by up to 5 % below that of the bias-corrected ARIMA model and achieving an R 2 value of 0.84 with true wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗