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At least 127 records · Page 7

Volcanic Eruptions and Effects on our Climate

Volcanoes are an integral part of the Earth system and are formed by intrusions of magma that 'bubble up’ from Earth’s interior (e.g., lava lamp). They can form above thin areas of the Earth’s crust/ lithosphere known as ‘hot spots or mantle plumes’ such as the Hawaiian Islands or Yellowstone National Park. More commonly they form along ‘subduction zones’ where the thinner oceanic tectonic plates slide below the thicker continental plates. Many of the most active (and violent) volcanos lie along subduction zones known as the Pacific 'Ring of Fire’.

Volcanos↗

An Estimation of the Likelihood of Significant Eruptions During 2000-2009 Using Poisson Statistics on Two-Point Moving Averages of the Volcanic Time Series

Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (volcanic explosivity index (VEI)>=4) per decade spans 2-11, with 96 percent located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere. A two-point moving average of the volcanic time series has higher values since the 1860's than before, being 8.00 in the 1910's (the highest value) and 6.50 in the 1980's, the highest since the 1910's peak. Because of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that its value for the 1990's will measure approximately 6.50 +/- 1, implying that approximately 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially those having VEI>=5) nearly always have been associated with short-term episodes of global cooling, the occurrence of even one might confuse our ability to assess the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more events with a VEI>=4 within the next ten years is >99 percent. It is approximately 49 percent for an event with a VEI>=5, and 18 percent for an event with a VEI>=6. Hence, the likelihood that a climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next ten years appears reasonably high.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

El Chichon volcanic ash in the stratosphere - Particle abundances and size distributions after the 1982 eruption

Volcanic ash particles collected from the stratosphere after the March/April, 1982 explosive eruption of El Chichon volcano, Mexico, were mostly 2-40 micron vesicular shards of silicic volcanic glass that varied in abundance, at 16.8-19.2 km altitude, from 200 per cu m (30-49 deg N lat.) in May to 1.3 per cu m (45-75 deg N) in October. At the minimum, the ash cloud covered latitudes 10-60 deg N in July and 10 deg S-75 deg N in October. In May and July, ash particles were mostly free, individual shards (and clusters of shards) but, by October, were intimately associated with liquid droplets (presumably, sulfuric acid). In May 1982, the total stratospheric burden of ash was at least 240 tons (2.2 x 10 to the 8th g) although the total ash injected into the stratosphere by the eruption was probably 480-8400 tons.

Gooding, J. L.↗

Post-volcanic stratospheric aerosol decay as measured by lidar

The paper summarizes and discusses results of lidar observations, at Hampton (Virginia), of the stratospheric aerosol vertical distribution for a period of 22 months (October 1974 to July 1976) after the volcanic eruption of the Volcan de Fuego in Guatemala. Data are presented in terms of lidar scattering ratio, vertically integrated aerosol backscattering, layer structure and location, and rawinsonde temperature profiles as a function of time. The results reveal a sudden increase in the stratospheric aerosol content after the volcanic eruption as well as its subsequent decline. There exists a high degree of correlation between the integrated aerosol backscattering and the tropopause height such that as one decreases the other increases and vice versa. Rapid decay of the stratospheric aerosol is found to occur over the late winter to early spring period.

Mccormick, M. P.↗

Global temperature monitoring from space

Global and regional temperature variations in the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere are examined for the period 1979-92 from Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) data obtained by the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS)-N series of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational satellites. In the lower troposphere, globally-averaged temperature variations appear to be dominated by tropical El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cool) events and volcanic eruptions. The Pinatubo volcanic eruption in June 1991 appears to have initiated a cooling trend which persisted through the most recent data analyzed (July, 1992), and largely overwhelmed the warming from the 1991-92 El Nino. The cooling has been stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. The temperature trend over the 13.5 year satellite record is small (+0.03 C) compared to the year-to-year variability (0.2-0.4 C), making detection of any global warming signal fruitless to date. However, the future global warming trend, currently predicted to be around 0.3 C/decade, will be much easier to discern should it develop. The lower stratospheric temperature record is dominated by warm episodes from the Pinatubo eruption and the March 1982 eruption of El Chichon volcano.

Spencer, R. W.↗

Volatile Transport by Volcanic Plumes on Earth, Venus and Mars

Explosive volcanic eruptions can produce sustained, buoyant columns of ash and gas in the atmosphere (Fig. 1). Large flood basalt eruptions may also include significant explosive phases that generate eruption columns. Such eruptions can transport volcanic volatiles to great heights in the atmosphere. Volcanic eruption columns can also redistribute chemical species within the atmosphere by entraining ambient atmosphere at low altitudes and releasing those species at much higher altitudes.

Glaze, Lori S.↗

Turbulent atmospheric plumes above line sources with an application to volcanic fissure eruptions on the terrestrial planets

The theory of turbulent plumes maintained above steady line sources of buoyancy is worked out in detail within the limitations of Taylor's entrainment assumption. It is applied to the structure of a pure plume injected into a stably stratified atmosphere. Volcanic basalt eruptions that develop from long, narrow vents create line source plumes, which rise well above the magmatic fire fountains playing near the ground level. The eruption of Laki in 1783 may provide an example of this style of eruption. Flood basalts are more ancient examples. Evidence of enormous fissure eruptions that occurred in the past on Mars and Venus also exists. Owing to the different properties of the atmospheres on these two planets from those on the earth, heights of line source plumes are expected to vary in the ratios 1:6:0.6 (earth:Mars:Venus). It is very unlikely that the observed increase of sulfur dioxide above the Venusian cloud deck in 1978 could have been due to a line source volcanic eruption, even if it had been a flood basalt eruption.

Stothers, Richard B.↗

Real Time Volcanic Cloud Products and Predictions for Aviation Alerts

Volcanic eruptions can inject significant amounts of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and volcanic ash into the atmosphere, posing a substantial risk to aviation safety. Ingesting near-real time and Direct Readout satellite volcanic cloud data is vital for improving reliability of volcanic ash forecasts and mitigating the effects of volcanic eruptions on aviation and the economy. NASA volcanic products from the Ozone Monitoring Insrument (OMI) aboard the Aura satellite have been incorporated into Decision Support Systems of many operational agencies. With the Aura mission approaching its 10th anniversary, there is an urgent need to replace OMI data with those from the next generation operational NASA/NOAA Suomi National Polar Partnership (SNPP) satellite. The data provided from these instruments are being incorporated into forecasting models to provide quantitative ash forecasts for air traffic management. This study demonstrates the feasibility of the volcanic near-real time and Direct Readout data products from the new Ozone Monitoring and Profiling Suite (OMPS) ultraviolet sensor onboard SNPP for monitoring and forecasting volcanic clouds. The transition of NASA data production to our operational partners is outlined. Satellite observations are used to constrain volcanic cloud simulations and improve estimates of eruption parameters, resulting in more accurate forecasts. This is demonstrated for the 2012 eruption of Copahue. Volcanic eruptions are modeled using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) and the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol and Radiation Transport (GOCART) model. A hindcast of the disruptive eruption from Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull is used to estimate aviation re-routing costs using Metron Aviation's ATM Tools.

Volcanic ash↗