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At least 127 records · Page 7

Global Climate Impacts of Greenland and Antarctic Glacial Melt: A Comparative Study

A 10-member ensemble simulation using the NASA GISS-E2-1-G climate model shows a clear bifurcation in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength under the SSP2-4.5 future scenario, leading to 8 stable AMOC-on and 2 stable AMOC-off climate states after 400 years of integration, despite identical forcing of each ensemble member. Ocean models have previously shown a tipping point where sufficient forcing (e.g. by freshwater inputs) can shut down the AMOC. A variety of fully coupled models have demonstrated this, either through hosing experiments or increased precipitation and warming at high latitudes due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases. In the GISS simulations, there are no external freshwater perturbations. The bifurcation arises freely in the coupled system and is the result of stochastic variability associated with sea-ice transport and melting in the Irminger Sea following a slowing of the GHG concentration increase at the end of the twenty-first century. We believe this is the first time that a CMIP-class model has shown such a bifurcation across an initial condition ensemble.

GISS ModelE2.1↗

Comparison of past and future simulations of ENSO in CMIP5/PMIP3 and CMIP6/PMIP4 models

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability in the current climate, influencing ecosystems, agriculture, and weather systems across the globe, but future projections of ENSO frequency and amplitude remain highly uncertain. A comparison of changes in ENSO in a range of past and future climate simulations can provide insights into the sensitivity of ENSO to changes in the mean state, including changes in the seasonality of incoming solar radiation, global average temperatures, and spatial patterns of sea surface temperatures. As a comprehensive set of coupled model simulations is now available for both palaeoclimate time slices (the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene, and last interglacial) and idealised future warming scenarios (1 % per year CO2 increase, abrupt four-time CO2 increase), this allows a detailed evaluation of ENSO changes in this wide range of climates. Such a comparison can assist in constraining uncertainty in future projections, providing insights into model agreement and the sensitivity of ENSO to a range of factors. The majority of models simulate a consistent weakening of ENSO activity in the last interglacial and mid-Holocene experiments, and there is an ensemble mean reduction of variability in the western equatorial Pacific in the Last Glacial Maximum experiments. Changes in global temperature produce a weaker precipitation response to ENSO in the cold Last Glacial Maximum experiments and an enhanced precipitation response to ENSO in the warm increased CO2 experiments. No consistent relationship between changes in ENSO amplitude and annual cycle was identified across experiments.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)↗

The Influence of Direct Radiative Forcing Versus Indirect Sea Surface Temperature Warming on Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Anticyclones Under Global Warming

Southern hemisphere subtropical anticyclones are projected to change in a warmer climate during both austral summer and winter. A recent study of CMIP 5 & 6 projections found a combination of local diabatic heating changes and static-stability-induced changes in baroclinic eddy growth as the dominant drivers. Yet the underlying mechanisms forcing these changes still remain uninvestigated. This study aims to enhance our mechanistic understanding of what drives these Southern Hemisphere anticyclones changes during both seasons. Using an AGCM, we decompose the response to CO2-induced warming into two components: (1) the fast atmospheric response to direct CO2 radiative forcing, and (2) the slow atmospheric response due to indirect sea surface temperature warming. Additionally, we isolate the influence of tropical diabatic heating with AGCM added heating experiments. As a complement to our numerical AGCM experiments, we analyze the Atmospheric and Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project experiments. Results from sensitivity experiments show that slow subtropical sea surface temperature warming primarily forces the projected changes in subtropical anticyclones through baroclinicity change. Fast CO2 atmospheric radiative forcing on the other hand plays a secondary role, with the most notable exception being the South Atlantic subtropical anticyclone in austral winter, where it opposes the forcing by sea surface temperature changes resulting in a muted net response. Lastly, we find that tropical diabatic heating changes only significantly influence Southern Hemisphere subtropical anticyclone changes through tropospheric wind shear changes during austral winter.

Subtropical anticyclone↗

SAGE studies of the waves and eddy fluxes of ozone and temperature near 55 deg during the late February 1979 stratospheric warming

Ozone data from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment have been used in conjunction with meteorological information to study the waves and eddy fluxes of ozone and temperature near 55 deg N during the late February 1979 stratospheric warming. The results indicate an intense poleward eddy ozone transport in the altitude range between approximately 24 and 38 km, and an equatorward transport above an altitude of about 38 km. It is found that this equatorward eddy ozone transport in the upper stratosphere was accompanied by a poleward eddy heat transport, as expected on the basis of the ozone photochemistry. The results also indicate that the phase relationship between ozone and temperature waves agrees qualitatively with existing model analyses.

Wang, P.-H.↗

Genesis of Pre-Hurricane Felix (2007): Warm Core Formation, Precipitation Evolution, and Predictability - Part 2

This is the second of a two-part study examining the simulated formation of Atlantic Hurricane Felix (2007) in a cloud-representing framework. Here several open issues are addressed concerning the formation of the storm's warm core, the evolution and respective contribution of stratiform versus convective precipitation within the parent wave's pouch, and the sensitivity of the development pathway reported in Part I to different model physics options and initial conditions. All but one of the experiments include ice microphysics as represented by one of several parameterizations, and the partition of convective versus stratiform precipitation is accomplished using a standard numerical technique based on the high-resolution control experiment. The transition to a warm-core tropical cyclone from an initially cold-core, lower tropospheric wave disturbance is analyzed first. As part of this transformation process, it is shown that deep moist convection is sustained near the pouch center. Both convective and stratiform precipitation rates increase with time. While stratiform precipitation occupies a larger area even at the tropical storm stage, deep moist convection makes a comparable contribution to the total rain rate at the pregenesis stage, and a larger contribution than stratiform processes at the storm stage. The convergence profile averaged near the pouch center is found to become dominantly convective with increasing deep moist convective activity there. Low-level convergence forced by interior diabatic heating plays a key role in forming and intensifying the near-surface closed circulation, while the midlevel convergence associated with stratiform precipitation helps to increase the midlevel circulation and thereby contributes to the formation and upward extension of a tropospheric-deep cyclonic vortex. Sensitivity tests with different model physics options and initial conditions demonstrate a similar pregenesis evolution. These tests suggest that the genesis location of a tropical storm is largely controlled by the parent wave's critical layer, whereas the genesis time and intensity of the protovortex depend on the details of the mesoscale organization, which is less predictable. Some implications of the findings are discussed.

Wang, zhuo↗

Marine aerosol generation experiments in the High Arctic during summertime

The rapidly warming Arctic has transitioned to thinner sea ice which fractures, producing leads. Few studies have investigated Arctic sea spray aerosol (SSA) produced from open ocean, leads, and melt ponds, which vary in salinity and organic and microbial community composition. A marine aerosol reference tank was deployed aboard an icebreaker to the Arctic Ocean during August–September 2018 to study SSA generated from locally collected surface waters. Aerosol generation experiments were carried out using water collected from the marginal ice zone, a human-made hole in sea ice near the North Pole, and both lead and melt pond water during an ice floe drift period. Salinity, chlorophyll a, organic carbon, nitrogen, and microbial community composition were measured. Eukaryotic plankton and bacterial abundance were elevated in experimental water from the marginal ice zone, but the relative contributions from major eukaryotic taxonomic groups varied little across the experiments. The chemical composition of individual SSA particles was analyzed using Raman microspectroscopy and computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. Individual sea salt aerosol, primary organic aerosol, and mineral dust particles were observed. Sea salt aerosol constituted 44–95% of individual submicrometer and 68–100% of supermicrometer particles, by number, generated during each experiment. Carbon was detected in 85%, by number, of the individual sea salt particles, with visible organic coatings. Carbohydrates were detected in 72% of particles, by number, with smaller contributions from long-chain fatty acids (13%) and siliceous material (15%). SSA generated from melt pond water contained only long-chain fatty acids and siliceous material. Quantification of the ice-nucleating activity showed that locally produced SSA may define the High Arctic background ice-nucleating particle population, but cannot account for the peak atmospheric concentrations observed. As the Arctic warms, the increasing SSA emissions have a complex dependence on changing biological and physical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Thermal Design Evolution of the Phoenix Robotic Arm

An adequate warm-up heater approach was developed using analysis & previous Mars surface experience. In the worst-cold environment, all the actuators were able to warm to their minimum operating temperature within the required time. In the worst-hot environment, the maximum continuous actuator power dissipation during normal operations was determined. A mechanical thermostat provides best means to cope with a failed-on wrist heater & to ease RA operations planning.

Mars↗

Experimental feasibility study of a thermoelectric heat flux gage

An experiment was conducted to determine the feasibility of using a commercially available thermoelectric device as a heat flux gage at near ambient conditions. In certain research applications, the thermoelectric heat flux gage can provide a relatively simple means to model a warm fluid cold wall convection environment. The experiment showed that heat flux through the gage could be correlated within 2.5 percent with a simple algebraic equation which considered the thermoelectric current through the device and the hot and cold side temperatures.

Vanfossen, G. J.↗

Characterizing laser-heated polymer foams with simultaneous x-ray fluorescence spectroscopy and Thomson scattering at the Matter in Extreme Conditions Endstation at LCLS

Understanding the behavior of polymer foams at high energy density conditions is crucial to advance inertial fusion energy research. Here, we present a new experimental platform designed to measure the thermodynamic state of these materials at megabar pressures. At the Matter in Extreme Conditions Endstation of the Linac Coherent Light Source, we heat samples using an optical, high-intensity, femtosecond laser and dynamically probe them with ultra-short, coherent x-ray pulses of high peak brightness. We perform x-ray Thomson scattering measurements in forward and backward scattering geometries to capture both collective and non-collective electron behavior in the sample. Simultaneously, x-ray fluorescence spectroscopy is used to measure the emission from a mid-Z dopant, providing complementary information on the plasma conditions. By combining these techniques, we obtain temporally resolved temperature measurements of the transient warm dense matter states. Our initial experiments designed to benchmark the platform with carbon samples yielded data resolving the ultrafast response to laser heating with sub-picosecond resolution, measuring plasma temperatures exceeding 50 eV. These findings lay the foundation for precision studies of the dynamic evolution of laser-heated polymer foams.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A field investigation and numerical simulation of coastal fog

A field investigation of the microphysical and micrometeorological features of fogs occurring near Los Angeles and Vandenberg, California was conducted. Observations of wind speed and direction, temperature, dew point, vertical wind velocity, dew deposition, drop-size distribution, liquid water content, and haze and cloud nucleus concentration were obtained. These observations were initiated in late evening prior to fog formation and continued until the time of dissipation in both advection and radiation fogs. Data were also acquired in one valley fog and several dense haze situations. The behavior of these parameters prior to and during fog are discussed in detail. A two-dimensional numerical model was developed to investigate the formation and dissipation of advection fogs under the influence of horizontal variations in surface temperature. The model predicts the evolution of potential temperature, water vapor content, and liquid water content in a vertical plane as determined by vertical turbulent transfer and horizontal advection. Results are discussed from preliminary numerical experiments on the formation of warm-air advection fog and dissipation by natural and artificial heating from the surface.

Mack, E. J.↗

Core temperature is regulated, although at a lower temperature, in rats exposed to hypergravic fields

1. In rats acclimated to 23 degrees C (RT rats) or 5 degrees C (CA rats), core temperature (Tc), tail temperature (Tt) and oxygen consumption (VO2) were measured during exposure to a hypergravic field. 2. Rats were exposed for 5.5 h to a 3 g field while ambient temperature (Ta) was varied. For the first 2 h, Ta was 25 degrees C; then Ta was raised to 34 degrees C for 1.5 h. During this period of warm exposure, Tc increased 4 degrees C in both RT and CA rats. Finally, Ta was returned to 25 degrees C for 2 h, and Tc decreased toward the levels measured prior to warm exposure. 3. In a second experiment at 3 g, RT and CA rats were exposed to cold (12 degrees C) after two hours at 25 degrees C. During the one hour cold exposure, Tc fell 1.5 degrees C in RT and 0.5 degree C in CA rats. After cold exposure, when ambient temperature was again 25 degrees C, Tc of RT and CA rats returned toward the levels measured prior to the thermal disturbance. 4. Rats appear to regulate their temperature, albeit at a lower level, in a 3 g field.

NASA Discipline Number 40-30↗

Eurasian Heat Waves: Mechanisms and Predictability

This study uses the NASA MERRA reanalysis and GEOS 5 model simulations to examine the causes of Eurasian heat waves including the recent extreme events that occurred in Europe during 2003 and in Russia during 2010. The focus is on the warm season and the part of the Eurasian continent that extends north of about 40oN, or roughly to the north of the mean upper tropospheric jet stream. The results show that such extreme events are an amplification of natural patterns of atmospheric variability that develop over the Eurasian continent as a result of internal atmospheric forcing. The amplification occurs when the wave occasionally becomes locked in place for several weeks to months resulting in extreme heat and drying with the location depending on the phase of the upper atmospheric wave. An ensemble of very long GEOS-S model simulations (spanning the 20th century) forced with observed SST and greenhouse gases show that the model is capable of generating very similar heat waves, and that they have become more intense in the last thirty years as a result of the overall warming of the Asian continent. Sensitivity experiments with perturbed initial conditions indicate that these events have limited predictability.

Wang, Hailan↗

Southern Ocean Heat Storage, Reemergence, and Winter Sea Ice Decline Induced by Summertime Winds

The observational record shows a substantial 40-yr upward trend in summertime westerly winds over the Southern Ocean, as characterized by the southern annular mode (SAM) index. Enhanced summertime westerly winds have been linked to cold summertime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Previous studies have suggested that Ekman transport or upwelling is responsible for this seasonal cooling. Here, another process is presented in which enhanced vertical mixing, driven by summertime wind anomalies, moves heat downward, cooling the sea surface and simultaneously warming the subsurface waters. The anomalously cold SSTs draw heat from the atmosphere into the ocean, leading to increased depth-integrated ocean heat content. The subsurface heat is returned to the surface mixed layer during the autumn and winter as the mixed layer deepens, leading to anomalously warm SSTs and potentially reducing sea ice cover. Observational analyses and numerical experiments support our proposed mechanism, showing that enhanced vertical mixing produces subsurface warming and cools the surface mixed layer. Nevertheless, the dominant driver of surface cooling remains uncertain; the relative importance of advective and mixing contributions to the surface cooling is model dependent. Modeling results suggest that sea ice volume is more sensitive to summertime winds than sea ice extent, implying that enhanced summertime westerly winds may lead to thinner sea ice in the following winter, if not lesser ice extent. Thus, strong summertime winds could precondition the sea ice cover for a rapid retreat in the following melt season.

Southern Ocean↗

Ionization and temperature measurements in warm dense copper using x-ray absorption spectroscopy

We detail experimental results inferring ionization and temperature for warm dense copper plasmas at several times solid density (15–25 g/cm 3 ) and temperatures of 10–21 eV. Experiments performed at the OMEGA Laser Facility generate uniform warm dense matter conditions via symmetric shock compression of a buried copper layer. The plasma is probed with a laser-generated x-ray source to collect the K-shell x-ray absorption spectrum. Fitting bound-bound absorption contributions from constituent charge states of copper provides an estimated $\overline{Z}$ of approximately 4–7 for these warm dense copper plasmas. We find that these partially ionized plasmas have K-edge shifts of 12–30 eV and bound-bound resonance 1s → 3p absorption shifts of 4–26 eV with respect to the cold K edge. This study provides necessary experimental data to improve ionization and opacity models in the warm dense matter regime.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA Lewis Research Center combustion MHD experiment

The MHD power generation experiments were conducted in a high field strength cryomagnet which was adapted from an existing facility. In its original construction, it consisted of 12 high purity aluminum coils pool cooled in a bath of liquid neon. In this configuration, a peak field of 15 tesla was produced. For the present experiments, the center four coils were removed and a 23 cm diameter transverse warm bore tube was inserted to allow the placement of the MHD experiment between the remaining eight coils. In this configuration, a peak field of 6 tesla should be obtainable. The time duration of the experiment is limited by the neon supply which allows on the order of 1 minute of total operating time followed by an 18-hour reliquefaction period. As a result, the experiments are run in a pulsed mode. The run duration for the data presented here was 5 sec. The magnetic field profile along the MHD duct is shown. Since the working fluid is in essence superheated steam, it is easily water quenched at the exit of the diffuser and the components are designed vacuum tight so that the exhaust pipe and demister an be pumped down to simulate the vacuum of outer space.

Smith, J. M.↗

LASE measurements of convective boundary layer development during SGP97

The Southern Great Plains 1997 (SGP97) field experiment was conducted in Oklahoma during June-July 1997 to validate the models used for computing remote soil moisture using measurements by microwave radiometers. One of the objectives of SGP97 was to examine the effect of soil moisture on the evolution of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) and clouds over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) during the warm season. The LASE (Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment) airborne DIAL (Differential Absorption Lidar) system, which was flown autonomously on the NASA ER-2 aircraft during previous missions, was reconfigured to fly on the NASA P3 research aircraft. During SGP97 LASE was used to study the morning evolution of the ABL, particularly as manifested in the development of the convective boundary layer, and to study the influence of soil moisture variations on the development of ABL. The ABL development is strongly influenced by the surface energy budget, which is in turn influenced by soil moisture, mesoscale meteorology, clouds, and solar insolation. LASE data acquired during this mission are being used to study the ABL water vapor budget, the development of the ABL, spatial and temporal variabilities in the ABL, and the meteorological factors that influence the ABL development. This field experiment also permitted comparisons of LASE water vapor measurements with water vapor profiles acquired by radiosondes launched at the DOE (Department of Energy) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plain (SGP) site and at NASA/Wallops Flight Facility, as well as with measurements from other SGP97 aircraft.

Ismail, Syed↗

Indian Ocean warming as key driver of long-term positive trend of Arctic Oscillation

Arctic oscillation (AO), which is the most dominant atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the boreal winter, significantly affects the weather and climate at mid-to-high latitudes in the NH. Although a climate community has focused on a negative trend of AO in recent decades, the significant positive trend of AO over the last 60 years has not yet been thoroughly discussed. By analyzing reanalysis and Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP) datasets with novel pacemaker experiments, we found that sea surface temperature warming in the Indian Ocean is conducive to the positive trend of AO from the late 1950s. The momentum flux convergence by stationary waves due to the Indian Ocean warming plays an important role in the positive trend of AO, which is characterized by a poleward shift of zonal-mean zonal winds. In addition, the reduced upward propagating wave activity flux over the North Pacific due to Indian Ocean warming also plays a role to strengthen the polar vortex, subsequently, it contributes to the positive trend of AO. Our results imply that the respective warming trend of tropical ocean basins including Indian Ocean, which is either anthropogenic forcing or natural variability or their combined effect, should be considered to correctly project the future AO’s trend.

Indian Ocean↗

GCM sensitivity to 1982 - 1983 equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies

The response of the GLAS climate model to the much larger 1982-83 sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies is discussed. Two separate 75 day experiments (control and anomaly simulation pairs) were started from observed initial conditions on 16 Dec. 1982 and initial conditions on 16 Dec. 1979 taken from a 2 year model control run after one year of simulation, respectively. The January control and anomaly SST fields used in both experiments are given. Notable is the greatly extended region of very warm (approximately equal to 29 C) SST water in the anomaly simulation. The January SST anomaly field is representative of the other months of the experiments, all of which had a much larger region of very warm SST in the anomaly simulation than in the previously noted general circulation model studies. The model used is an improved version of the GLAS B-grid GCM used by Shukla and Wallace (1983). The most important physical change in the model is the inclusion of the surface flux parameterization of Deardorff (1972) as modified by Randall (1976). An important improvement in the model simulations is the removal of the climate drift towards unrealistically high temperatures in the tropics, which was moted by Shukla and Wallace (1983).

Fennessy, M. J.↗