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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Okefenokee Water Resources: Using Earth Observations to Assess Hydrologic Changes and Wildfire Risk in the Okefenokee Swamp

The Okefenokee Swamp is a vital ecosystem known for its protection of biodiversity, peatland carbon sinks, and recreational and economic opportunities for local residents. The swamp has experienced several wildfires since the 1990s, and new development along the borders of Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge (ONWR) threatens to alter hydrologic activity and increase fire frequency. NASA DEVELOP partnered with staff at the ONWR to determine the feasibility of using satellite imagery to assess wildfire risk and map changes in vegetation cover. Using data from NASA satellites Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) data from the USDA’s Crop Condition and Soil Moisture Analytics Tool (Crop-CASMA), European Space Agency (ESA) Sentinel-1 C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), the DEVELOP team assessed the relationship between hydrologic change, vegetation cover, and wildfire risk in the swamp. Results showed that the southern portion of ONWR has been burned the most since 1990 and has greater water stability than other areas of the refuge. The team also found that the largest pockets of mature forests remain in the northernmost regions. Soil moisture anomaly readings may serve as an indicator of fire conditions. The team used these results to create a vegetation map, a swamp water visibility time series map, a historical wildfire correlation analysis, and a methodology tutorial. These products will assist the ONWR in making informed management decisions about the future of the Okefenokee Swamp.

Brianne Kendall↗
DOE OSTI2026

VIC-Global Parameter Dataset Sensitivity with the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model: Evaluating the importance of dynamic land surface parameters when using the VIC-Global parameter dataset

Accurate prediction of runoff is essential to water resources management, flood risk assessment, and ecosystem protection. However, many hydrological models still have relatively substantial limitations when representing the influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on runoff generation and routing. Changes in LULC, such as deforestation, urban expansion, agricultural intensification, and wetland loss, have been shown to alter the water balance at the land surface through fundamental hydrologic processes (e.g., interception, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and soil storage). However, it remains an open question what the exact magnitude and timing of these impacts are for the spatial and temporal scales commonly used in engineering applications. In this analysis we focus on one aspect of recent LULC change for assessing human impacts, which is urbanization. Specifically we seek to determine the impacts of urbanization on the magnitude and timing of surface runoff and baseflow in HUC-12 basins in Clark County, Nevada which has experienced rapid urbanization. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a widely used off-the-shelf dataset of land surface parameters, VIC-Global, both of which have been commonly used in the past for water and energy balance modeling for large scale hydrologic studies. We examine two scenarios where the first scenario removes all urbanized land cover and parameterizes those areas of the basins as barren or open shrubland. The second scenario tests the opposite case where all areas of the basins are classified as urban regardless of their present classification. The results from the VIC model show there is a low sensitivity for daily surface runoff between scenarios. The daily baseflow values indicate similar low sensitivity to the classification change during specific periods, but then have substantial differences during other period when large precipitation events are occurring. This is likely due to the assumed parameter values for the urban land cover classification made by the VIC-Global dataset. Using a static land cover parameterization is reasonable for large domain hydrology models that are being used for near-term planning horizons (<30 years). However, longer planning horizons where feedbacks between the atmosphere and land surface are important, especially in transient climate situations, considerations for how to update land surface parameters should be incorporated.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1990

Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Ulysses Mission (Tier 2)

This Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) addresses the environmental impacts which may be caused by the preparation and operation of the Ulysses spacecraft, including its planned launch on the Space Transportation System (STS) Shuttle and the alternative of canceling further work on the mission. The launch configuration will use the STS/Inertial Upper Stage (IUS)/Payload Assist Module-Special(PAM-S) combination. The Tier 1 EIS included a delay alternative which considered the Titan 4 launch vehicle as an alternative booster stage for launch in 1991 or later. However, the U.S. Air Force, which procures the Titan 4 for NASA, could not provide a Titan 4 vehicle for the 1991 launch opportunity because of high priority Department of Defense requirements. The only expected environmental effects of the proposed action are associated with normal Shuttle launch operations. These impacts are limited largely to the near-field at the launch pad, except for temporary stratospheric ozone effects during launch and occasional sonic boom effects near the landing site. These effects have been judged insufficient to preclude Shuttle launches. In the event of (1) an accident during launch, or (2) reentry of the spacecraft from earth orbit, there are potential adverse health and environmental effects associated with the possible release of plutonium dioxide from the spacecraft's radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTG). The potential effects considered in this EIS include risks of air and water quality impacts, local land area contamination, adverse health and safety impacts, the disturbance of biotic resources, impacts on wetland areas or areas containing historical sites, and socioeconomic impacts. Intensive analysis of the possible accidents associated with the proposed action are underway and preliminary results indicate small health or environmental risks. The results of a Final Safety Analysis Report will be available for inclusion into the final EIS.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed Safety Analysis for Accident Tolerant Fuels

Accident Tolerant Fuels (ATF) are being tested by different nuclear vendors and research organization and their introduction in light water reactors fleet is planned for the second half of the 2020`s. In the framework of the US-DOE Light-Water Reactor Sustainability program, Risk-Informed Safety Analysis pathway (LWRS-RISA), research activities are being conducted at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for developing tools and methods that can help the industry in quantifying the ATF introduction benefits. In this paper we describe the developed risk-informed methodology, the codes improvements and we present some results for selected accidental conditions. The developed methodology combines INL state-of-the-art deterministic Best Estimate tools like RELAP5-3D code, and Probabilistic Risk Analysis tools like RAVEN and SAPHIRE codes. The analyses are performed on a three-loops pressurized water reactor (PWR) simulating accidental conditions like Station Blackout and LB-LOCA and considering near-term ATF (FeCrAl and Chromium-coated clads). Finally, we show, through our methodologies, how the delta-Core Damage Frequency can be assessed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Integrating field observations and process-based modeling to predict watershed water quality under environmental perturbations

Watersheds play a critical role in supplying water resources needed for human use and ecosystem health. Understanding and predicting how, when, and where changes in the quantity and quality of water resources occur under different environmental stresses including extreme events is crucial for sustainable management of water resources under a changing environment. However, few studies have attempted to quantify or identify the factors and process interactions controlling the impact of extreme events across water-shed systems. Only few large-scale studies include coordinated monitoring and modeling efforts, which limits our ability to assess the large-scale impact of extreme events on water supply and quality. Methods are lacking to propagate uncertainty in process understanding through an integrated hydro-biogeochemical model framework and evaluate its importance, thus failing to take full advantage of the information potentially available through transformative advances in characterization technologies from high-resolution mass spectrometry to airborne and satellite-based remote sensing. There are consequent risks to our nations water security and to human and ecosystem health that may become exacerbated with the increasing frequency of extreme events that is projected for the coming decades. This paper reviews the current status of watershed science for both water quantity and quality and identifies critical gaps in our current knowledge and modeling capability in addressing the emergent needs in predicting watershed hydrologic and biogeochemical responses (i.e., water quantity and quality) under natural and anthropogenic perturbations. We highlight the need to (1) understand how environmental perturbations including extreme events like floods and droughts propagate through watershed systems and assess their short- and long-term impacts on watershed biogeochemistry, water quality and their recovery pathways; (2) develop and improve a watershed water quality model that reflects the state of scientific understanding gained from observations; and (3) construct a data-model fusion system for watershed characterization, process identification, and mechanistic model parameterization. A large base of modeling, monitoring and data capabilities have been built by various federal government agencies given the relevance of water to their critical missions. An emerging need is to build an integrated national capability for watershed water availability and quality that can address water-related missions across multiple federal agencies.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Prediction of Calcium Oxalate Stone Risk with Interventions

Introduction Mitigations intended to reduce bone mineral loss in-flight also influence the level of renal stone risk to astronauts. Extending a recent study completed by our group [1], we investigate the likely influence of combined fluid intake and Ca excretion mitigation strategies. Methods A computational biochemistry model representing CaOx crystal precipitation, growth, and agglomeration [2] is combined with a probabilistic analysis to predict the in-flight CaOx renal stone incidence risk ratio (IRR) relative to pre-flight values using 1517 astronaut 24-hour urine chemistries. The output of this simulation is used to assess the combined impact of controlling fluid intake and Ca excretion on maintaining IRR < 1.2 for > 95% of the population, a threshold determined from initial analysis of the model output compared to referent populations [1]. Results and Conclusions Figure 1 illustrates the simulated in-flight astronaut population (n=40000) with CaOx IRR > 1.2. The red lines indicate the known clinical risk boundary of each factor, and the white box is considered the area of high combined clinical risk. The simulation and identified risk threshold conform well to the expected clinical risk boundaries. The results, assuming insensible water losses equal or exceed 0.7 L/day, imply mitigations achieve risks similar to pre-flight levels when either Ca < 150 mg/day or fluid volume intake > 3.2 L/day individually, or combined Ca < 200 and fluid volume intake > 2.5 L/day. We continue to investigate similar compounded effects and look to apprise engineering trades by informing relative risk changes during mission design. References [1] D. A. Goodenow-Messman, S. A. Gokoglu, M. Kassemi, and J. Myers, Jerry G., “Characterization of Astronaut CaOx Renal Stone Incidence Rates to Quantify In-flight and Post-flight Relative Risk,” npj Microgravity, in review, 2021. [2] M. Kassemi and D. Thompson, “Prediction of renal crystalline size distributions in space using a PBE analytic model. 1. Effect of microgravity-induced biochemical alterations,” Am. J. Physiol. Physiol., vol. 311, no. 3, pp. F520–F530, Sep. 2016, doi: 10.1152/ajprenal.00401.2015.

Debra A Goodenow↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed Safety Analysis for Accident Tolerant Fuels

Accident Tolerant Fuels (ATF) are being tested by different nuclear vendors and research organizations and their introduction in the US light water reactors fleet is planned for the second half of the 2020`s. In the framework of the US-DOE Light-Water Reactor Sustainability program, Risk-Informed Systems Analysis pathway, researches are being conducted at the Idaho National Laboratory for developing tools and methods that can help the industry quantifying the benefits from the adoption of ATF technology. In this paper we describe the developed risk-informed methodology including the safety analysis codes improvements, and we present some results for selected accident scenarios. The developed methodology combines INL state-of-the-art deterministic Best Estimate code RELAP5-3D, and Probabilistic Risk Analysis tools RAVEN and SAPHIRE. The analyses are performed on a three-loops pressurized water reactor, simulating Station Blackout and LB-LOCA accidents and considering near-term ATFs, or FeCrAl and Chromium-coated clads. Finally, we show how, applying our methodology, the new Core Damage Frequency can be assessed. The results indicated that the main benefits in introducing near-term ATFs concern a significant reduction in the hydrogen production during accident conditions. No significant Core Damage Frequency reduction was found.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Examples of Mission-driven Data Science from Jefferson Lab and ACES

This presentation details mission-driven data science initiatives at Jefferson Lab and the Joint Institute for Advanced Computing on Environmental Studies (ACES). JLab, a U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science national laboratory, operates the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF), and is the lead institute for the new High Performance Data Facility (HPDF) Hub. The Joint Institute for ACES brings together interdisciplinary teams in health informatics, climate modeling, computer science, and physics to address environmental challenges, including flood modeling. The Hampton Roads region, particularly Norfolk and Virginia Beach, faces increasing flood risks, motivating the need for rapid, reliable, and risk-aware decision support. ACES’s flooding work has a focus on uncertainty quantification (UQ) and machine learning (ML) for coastal flood management. The work is motivated by the increasing vulnerability of communities such as Norfolk and Virginia Beach, Virginia, to frequent coastal flooding events, and the need for rapid, reliable decision support. The research develops computationally efficient ML surrogate models to forecast water levels and flooding risk. A central theme is the quantification and calibration of predictive uncertainty, especially for out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios, using techniques such as Monte Carlo Dropout, Deep Ensembles, Gaussian Processes, and Deep Quantile Regression (DQR). The study demonstrates that distance-aware UQ is critical for reliable scientific AI, particularly in high-dimensional, safety-critical, and real-time applications.

McSpadden, Diana [Thomas Jefferson National Accele↗
NASA NTRS2013

Microbial Monitoring of the International Space Station

Humans living and working in the harsh environment of space present many challenges for habitability engineers and microbiologists. Spacecraft must provide an internal environment in which physical (gas composition, pressure, temperature, and humidity), chemical, and biological environmental parameters are maintained at safe levels. Microorganisms are ubiquitous and will accompany all human-occupied spacecraft, but if biological contamination were to reach unacceptable levels, long-term human space flight would be impossible. Prevention of microbiological problems, therefore, must have a high priority. Historically, prevention of infectious disease in the crew has been the highest priority, but experience gained from the NASA-Mir program showed that microbial contamination of vehicle and life-support systems, such as biofouling of water and food, are of equal importance. The major sources of microbiological risk factors for astronauts include food, drinking water, air, surfaces, payloads, research animals, crew members, and personnel in close contact with the astronauts. In our efforts to eliminate or mitigate the negative effects of microorganisms in spacecraft, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) implemented comprehensive microbial analyses of the major risk factors. This included the establishment of acceptability requirements for food, water, air, surfaces, and crew members. A robust monitoring program was then implemented to verify that the risks were within acceptable limits. Prevention of microbiological problems is preferred over mitigation of problems during flight, and preventive steps must begin very early in the design phase. Spacecraft development must include requirements to control free water from humidity, condensate, hygiene activities, and other releases. If water is available, microbes are likely to grow because sufficient nutrients are potentially available. Materials selected for the spacecraft must not promote or support microbial growth. Air filtration can dramatically reduce the number of airborne bacteria, fungi, and particulates in spacecraft breathing air. Waterborne bacteria can be reduced to acceptable levels by thermal inactivation of bacteria during water processing, along with a residual biocide, and filtration at the point of use can ensure safety. System design must include onboard capability to achieve recovery of the system from contamination. Robust housekeeping procedures that include periodic cleaning and disinfection will prevent high levels of microbial growth on surfaces. Food for consumption in space must be thoroughly tested for excessive microbial content and pathogens before launch. Thorough preflight examination of flight crews, consumables, payloads, and the environment can greatly reduce pathogens in spacecraft. Many of the lessons learned from the Space Shuttle and previous programs were applied in the early design phase of the International Space Station, resulting in the safest space habitat to date. This presentation describes the monitoring program for the International Space Station and will summarize results from preflight and on-orbit monitoring.

Pierson, Duane L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cyber-Informed Engineering for Nuclear Reactor Digital Instrumentation and Control

As nuclear reactors transition from analog to digital technology, the benefits of enhanced operational capabilities and improved efficiencies are potentially offset by cyber risks. Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) is an approach that can be used by engineers and staff to characterize and reduce new cyber risks in digital instrumentation and control systems. CIE provides guidance that can be applied throughout the entire systems engineering lifecycle, from conceptual design to decommissioning. In addition to outlining the use of CIE in nuclear reactor applications, this chapter provides a brief primer on nuclear reactor instrumentation and control and the associated cyber risks in existing light water reactors as well as the digital technology that will likely be used in future reactor designs and applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Updated Assessment of Water-Energy Issues for Nuclear Power

There is significant ongoing need for understanding the water-energy nexus issues in the U.S. commercial nuclear energy industry. The water-energy nexus is a dynamic, ever evolving conundrum involving technological changes, regulatory concerns, economic constraints, environmental issues, and political attributes. This report provides a brief update on the water-energy nexus challenges facing the U.S. commercial industry since the 2010 report titled “Cooling Water Issues and Opportunities at the U.S. Nuclear Power Plants”. Since the 2010 report, nuclear power has experienced significant curtailments due to drought, intake and discharge temperatures, and flooding. These events will be exacerbated by global climate and resource competition. Water and energy regulation changes have accelerated and pose a particular risk to the commercial nuclear fleet compliance. The definition of Water of the United States continues to be litigated as water rights are being evaluated for fair and equitable allocation. The ability to maintain compliance with state and federal water regulations offers a substantial risk to the commercial nuclear industry, and therefore understanding the energy-water nexus is necessary for maintaining success of the current fleet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

Lake Anna Water Resources: Using NASA Earth Observations to Identify Algal Event Risk Factors in Lake Anna and Help Inform Future Management Practices

Lake Anna is a man-made reservoir and popular recreation destination that spans over 13,000 acres-9,600 public and 3,400 private-in the Piedmont region of Virginia. The Lake has recently seen a rise in documented harmful algal blooms (HABs), which pose a variety of community and ecological concerns and are often exacerbated by anthropogenic factors, such as excess nutrient loads from agricultural runoff. NASA DEVELOP has partnered with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) to help monitor cyanobacteria and nutrient pollution indicators across Lake Anna. The team utilized Earth observations (EO) and in situ ancillary data to identify and monitor algal bloom trends. The team used Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9 OLI-2, Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), and Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Color Instrument (OLCI) to analyze water quality variables such as chlorophyll-a, turbidity, surface temperature, and cyanobacteria. Due to the lack of comprehensive in situ data and historic HAB event records, our ability to compare and validate EOs was limited. Additionally, deficient spatial resolutions, along with a geographically complicated shoreline, accentuated the spatial constraints we faced in our analysis. After examining EOs, our results indicated conditions conducive to the formation of HABs within the upper reaches of Lake Anna. Yet, spatially dependent limiting factors may have also influenced where these phenomena developed. When used in concert with existing in situ datasets, NASA EOs provide relevant stakeholders with more comprehensive analyses with which to engage in enhanced monitoring and watershed management.

cyanobacteria↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing hybrid vigour using the thermal sensitivity of physiological trade-offs in tiger salamanders

Hybridization between species affects biodiversity and population sustainability in numerous ways, many of which depend on the fitness of the hybrid relative to the parental species. Hybrids can exhibit fitter phenotypes compared to the parental lineages, and this ‘hybrid vigour’ can then lead to the extinction of one or both parental lines. In this study, we analysed the relationship between water loss and gas exchange to compare physiological performance among three tiger salamander genotypes—the native California tiger salamander (CTS), the invasive barred tiger salamanders (BTS) and CTS × BTS hybrids across multiple temperatures (13.5°C, 20.5°C and 23.5°C). We developed a new index of performance, the water-gas exchange ratio (WGER), which we define as the ratio of gas exchange to evaporative water loss (μL V O 2 /μL H 2 O). The ratio describes the ability of an organism to support energetically costly activities with high levels of gas exchange while simultaneously limiting water loss to lower desiccation risk. We used flow through respirometry to measure the thermal sensitivity of metabolic rate and resistance to water loss of each salamander genotype to compare indices of physiological performance. We found that temperature had a significant effect on metabolic rate and resistance to water loss, with both traits increasing as temperatures warmed. Across genotypes, we found that hybrids have a higher WGER than the native CTS, owing to a higher metabolic rate despite having a lower resistance to water loss. These results provide a greater insight into the physiological mechanisms driving hybrid vigour and offer a potential explanation for the rapid spread of salamander hybrids. More broadly, our introduction of the WGER may allow for species- or lineage-wide comparisons of physiological performance across changing environmental conditions, highlighting the insight that can be gleaned from multitrait analysis of organism performance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Asteroid Crewed Segment Mission Lean Development

The next generation of human spaceflight missions presents numerous challenges to designers that must be addressed to produce a feasible concept. The specific challenges of designing an exploration mission utilizing the Space Launch System and the Orion spacecraft to carry astronauts beyond earth orbit to explore an asteroid stored in a distant retrograde orbit around the moon will be addressed. Mission designers must carefully balance competing constraints including cost, schedule, risk, and numerous spacecraft performance metrics including launch mass, nominal landed mass, abort landed mass, mission duration, consumable limits and many others. The Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission will be described along with results from the concurrent mission design trades that led to its formulation. While the trades presented are specific to this mission, the integrated process is applicable to any potential future mission. The following trades were critical in the mission formulation and will be described in detail: 1) crew size, 2) mission duration, 3) trajectory design, 4) docking vs grapple, 5) extravehicular activity tasks, 6) launch mass and integrated vehicle performance, 7) contingency performance, 8) crew consumables including food, clothing, oxygen, nitrogen and water, and 9) mission risk. The additional Orion functionality required to perform the Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission and how it is incorporated while minimizing cost, schedule and mass impacts will be identified. Existing investments in the NASA technology portfolio were leveraged to provide the added functionality that will be beneficial to future exploration missions. Mission kits are utilized to augment Orion with the necessary functionality without introducing costly new requirements to the mature Orion spacecraft design effort. The Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission provides an exciting early mission for the Orion and SLS while providing a stepping stone to even more ambitious missions in the future.

Gard, Joe↗
NASA NTRS2020

Influence of Global Climate on Freshwater Changes in Africa’s Largest Endorheic Basin Using Multi-Scaled Indicators

The poor investments in gauge measurements for hydro-climatic research in Africa has necessitated the need to investigate how decision makers can leverage on sophisticated spaceborne measurements to improve knowledge on surface water hydrology that can feed directly into water accounting processes and risk assessment from extreme droughts and its impacts. To demonstrate such potential, a suite of satellite earth observations (Sentinel-2, altimetry, Landsat, GRACE, and TRMM) and model data are combined with the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index to assess the impacts of global climate on freshwater dynamics over the LCB (Lake Chad basin), Africa’s largest endorheic basin. As shown in the results of this study, the significant relationship of climate modes (AMO; r = 0.68 and 0.59; and AMM; r = 0.2 and 0.47) with drought patterns in the LCB highlights the evidence of global climate influence in the region. The significant declines in drought extents and their intensities (2004 - 2015) over LCB coincide with the rise in surface water extent of the Lake Chad during the same period. Change detection analysis of open water features in the southern pool of Lake Chad during the 2015 - 2019 period shows that on the average, only 28.4% of inundated areas within the vicinity of the Lake persisted during the period. While the association of terrestrial water storage (TWS) with model-derived surface water storage (SWS) is strongest (r = 0.89) in the catchments that provide the most nourishment to the Lake Chad, the relationship of rainfall (2002 - 2017) with TWS (r = 0.85), model TWS (r = 0.87) and SWS (r = 0.88) confirm that the LCB’s hydrology is predominantly climate-driven. This notion is further reinforced as the predicted SWS over the LCB using a support vector machine regression scheme was found to be strongly correlated (r = 0.95 at = 0.05) with observed SWS.

Sentinel-2↗
NASA NTRS2022

Flood Monitoring Using Enhanced Resolution Passive Microwave Data: A Test Case Over Bangladesh

Monitoring floods is a major issue in water resources management and risk mitigation, especially in the Global South. Optical and radar observations, even providing a fine spatial resolution, are still limited by cloud cover interaction or insufficient temporal resolution. On the other hand, passive microwave (PMW) sensors collect information on a daily frequency with minor cloud cover interaction, but they have been historically limited in terms of spatial resolution. Here, we evaluate the capability of an enhanced spatial resolution PMW dataset (3.125 km) in monitoring spatio-temporal evolution of flood events, focusing on a major flood event that occurred in October 2005 in Bangladesh. We apply an algorithm aimed to remove the seasonal variability of surface temperature from the PMW timeseries, exploiting the difference in emissivity between dry and water-covered pixels. We assess the capability of the algorithm in capturing flood evolution and extension through the comparison with quantities obtained from optical data collected by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and water level measurements. We also compare the enhanced product with the historical coarser resolution dataset by means of a variogram-based analysis to evaluate the improvements in terms of spatial representation. Finally, we evaluate the possibility to extract the water fraction within a single pixel by using an Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer—Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) emissivity dataset and compare the estimates with MODIS-derived water fractions. Our results show that the enhanced PMW product outperforms the coarser one when compared to flood mapped from optical data based on information content, indicating that it is possible to integrate such a product into the mapping of floods at a global scale on a daily basis.

flood detection↗
NASA NTRS2009

Microbial Risk Assessment

Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose-response characteristics may be affected by a potentially dysfunctional crew immune system during a mission. In addition, microbial virulence has been shown to change under certain conditions during spaceflight, further complicating dose-response characterization. An initial study of the applicability of microbial risk assessment techniques was performed using Crew Health Care System (CHeCS) operational data from the International Space Station potable water systems. The risk of infection from potable water was selected as the flight systems and microbial ecology are well defined. This initial study confirmed the feasibility of using microbial risk assessment modeling for spaceflight systems. While no immediate threat was detected, the study identified several medically significant microorganisms that could pose a health risk if uncontrolled. The study also identified several specific knowledge gaps in making a risk assessment and noted that filling these knowledge gaps is essential as the risk estimates may change by orders of magnitude depending on the answers. The current phase of the microbial risk assessment studies focuses on the dose-response relationship of specific infectious agents, focusing on Salmonella enterica Typhimurium, Pseudomonas spp., and Escherichia coli, as their evaluation will provide a better baseline for determining the overall hazard characterization. The organisms were chosen as they either have been isolated on spacecraft or have an identified route of infection during a mission. The characterization will utilize dose-response models selected either from the peer-reviewed literature and/or by using statistical approaches. Development of these modeling and risk assessment techniques will help to optimize flight requirements and to protect the safety, health, and performance of the crew.

Ott, C. M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Application of Numerical Atmospheric Models

In this study, a numerical modeling framework for simulating extreme storm events was established using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Such a framework is necessary for the derivation of engineering parameters such as probable maximum precipitation that are the cornerstone of large water-management infrastructure design. Here, this framework was built based on a heavy storm that occurred in Nashville, Tennessee (U.S.), in 2010, and verified using two other extreme storms. To achieve the optimal setup, several combinations of model resolutions, initial/boundary conditions (IC/BC), cloud microphysics, and cumulus parameterization schemes were evaluated using multiple metrics of precipitation characteristics. The evaluation suggests that WRF is most sensitive to the IC/BC option. Simulation generally benefits from finer resolutions up to 5 km. At the 15 km level, NCEP2 IC/BC produces better results, whereas NAM IC/BC performs best at the 5 km level. The recommended model configuration from this study is: NAM or NCEP2 IC/BC (depending on data availability), 15 km or 15–5 km nested grids, Morrison microphysics, and Kain-Fritsch cumulus schemes. Validation of the optimal framework suggests that these options are good starting choices for modeling extreme events similar to the test cases. This optimal framework is proposed in response to emerging engineering demands of extreme storm event forecasting and analyses for design, operations, and risk assessment of large water infrastructures.

Chen, Xiaodong↗