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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
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NASA NTRS1991

Phase speed spectra of transient eddy fluxes and critical layer absorption

Tropospheric zonal mean eddy fluxes of heat and momentum, and the divergence of the Eliassen-Palm flux, are decomposed into contributions from different zonal phase speeds. Data analyzed are the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts operational global analyses covering 1980-1987. Eastward moving medium-scale waves (zonal waves 4-7) dominate the spectra of lower tropospheric heat fluxes in both hemispheres and all seasons. Upper tropospheric wave flux spectra are similar to the low level spectra in midlatitudes, but shift to slower zonal phase speeds as low latitudes are approached. The cause of this shift is the selective absorption of faster moving components in midlatitudes as the waves propagate meridionally. Latitude-phase speed distributions of eddy fluxes are constructed and compared to the zonal mean wind structure. These results demonstrate that upper tropospheric eddies break and decelerate the zonal mean flow approximately 10-20 deg in latitude away from their critical line (where phase speed equals zonal wind speed). Comparisons are also made with results from the middle stratosphere.

Randel, William J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Consideration of Dynamical Balances

The quasi-balance of extra-tropical tropospheric dynamics is a fundamental aspect of nature. If an atmospheric analysis does not reflect such balance sufficiently well, the subsequent forecast will exhibit unrealistic behavior associated with spurious fast-propagating gravity waves. Even if these eventually damp, they can create poor background fields for a subsequent analysis or interact with moist physics to create spurious precipitation. The nature of this problem will be described along with the reasons for atmospheric balance and techniques for mitigating imbalances. Attention will be focused on fundamental issues rather than on recipes for various techniques.

NNMI↗
NASA NTRS2018

Consideration of Dynamical Balances

The quasi-balance of extra-tropical tropospheric dynamics is a fundamental aspect of nature. If an atmospheric analysis does not reflect such balance sufficiently well, the subsequent forecast will exhibit unrealistic behavior associated with spurious fast-propagating gravity waves. Even if these eventually damp, they can create poor background fields for a subsequent analysis or interact with moist physics to create spurious precipitation. The nature of this problem will be described along with the reasons for atmospheric balance and techniques for mitigating imbalances. Attention will be focused on fundamental issues rather than on recipes for various techniques.

Errico, Ronald M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Rossby-gravity waves in tropical total ozone

Randel (1992) has recently reported evidence for Rossby-gravity waves in tropical data fields produced by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The purpose of this paper is to show that similar features are observable in fields of total column ozone from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite instrument. The observed features are episodic, have zonal (east-west) wavelengths of approximately 6,000-10,000 km and oscillate with periods of 5-10 days. The modes exhibit westward phase progression and eastward group velocity. A simple linear model is used to estimate the magnitude of total ozone perturbations induced by Rossby-gravity waves. The model is able to account for the magnitude of observed TOMS features as well as their asymmetry about the equator. The significance of finding Rossby-gravity waves in total ozone fields is that: (1) the report of similar features in ECMWF tropical fields is corroborated with an independent data set; and (2) the TOMS data set is demonstrated to possess surprising versatility and sensitivity to relatively smaller scale tropical phenomena.

Stanford, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Impact of Aquarius and SMAP Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on Coupled El Niño/Southern Oscillation Forecasts

This study demonstrates the positive impact of including gridded Aquarius and SMAP sea surface salinity (SSS) into initialization of coupled forecasts for the tropical Indo-Pacific. An experiment that assimilates conventional ocean observations serves as the control. In a separate experiment, Aquarius and SMAP satellite SSS are additionally assimilated into the control initialization. Analysis of the initialization differences with the control indicates that SSS assimilation causes a freshening and shallowing of the mixed layer depth (MLD) near the equator and enhanced Kelvin wave amplitude. For each month from September 2011 to September 2018, 12 month coupled ENSO forecasts are initialized from both the control and satellite SSS assimilation experiments. The experiment assimilating Aquarius and SMAP SSS significantly outperforms the control relative to observed NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies. This work highlights the importance of inclusion of satellite SSS for improving the initialization ENSO coupled forecasts.

Hackert, Eric C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of TAO Observation System on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

Since the early 1990’s, the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) mooring array has been instrumental for observing Kelvin and Rossby wave propagation which is key for El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. However, recent funding and programmatical issues have highlighted the need to rigorously assess the impact of the TAO observing system on ENSO predictions. Therefore, we evaluate the TAO using data assimilation observation denial experiments (also known as Observing System Evaluation or OSE experiments). This presentation will evaluate the TAO observing impact on both reanalyses and prediction of the big 2015 El Nino. We have completed reanalyses for July 2014-Dec 2015 for both the CONTROL experiment (that assimilates all available data) and the NOTAO experiment (that is identical to the CONTROL but withholds all TAO observations) using the best available NASA GEOS-S2S V3 seasonal prediction system. Validation of these reanalyses shows that TAO assimilation generally improves comparisons of temperature and salinity versus gridded in situ observations. Temperature is universally improved above the thermocline near the equator, but the biggest improvement is found in the eastern Pacific, just below the thermocline, where the variation of the thermocline defines ENSO events. In addition, a surprising result is that even with relatively few observations, salinity is improved throughout the equatorial region except near 120oW near the surface. ENSO forecasts were performed that were initialized from these CONTROL and NOTAO reanalyses. For the 9-month forecasts which were initialized in January, July, and October 2015, the NINO3.4 SST shows that the CONTROL forecasts are warmer and closer to observations than the NOTAO forecasts. We will show that upwelling and shoaling of the mixed layer amplifies the ENSO signal due to TAO assimilation. Prior to (after) April 2015, this upwelling is caused by relatively stronger Rossby (Kelvin) waves in the CONTROL than in the NOTAO experiments.

E. Hackert↗
NASA NTRS2018

Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

Sea surface salinity (SSS) observations from space allow us to investigate if improved estimates of near-surface density stratification and associated mixing can positively impact seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as dynamical ENSO forecasts. For the first part of the presentation, we utilize our intermediate-complexity coupled model. Baseline experiments assimilate satellite sea level (multi-satellite gridded AVISO, 2013), SST (Reynolds et al., 2004), and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations (GTSPP NODC, 2006). These baseline experiments are then compared with experiments that additionally assimilate Aquarius (V5.0 Lilly and Lagerloef, 2008) and SMAP (V4.0 Fore et al., 2016) SSS. Twelve-month forecasts are initialized for each month from September 2011 to September 2017. For initialization of the coupled forecast, the positive impact of SSS assimilation is brought about by surface freshening near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool and density changes that lead to shallower mixed layer between 10S-5N. This pattern enhances air/sea interaction and amplifies the equatorial Kelvin wave signal. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation over most forecast lead times. We next assess how different satellite SSS products impact the validation of ENSO forecasts. SMAP V4 reduces the salty bias in the western Pacific and so is an improvement upon SMAP V2 and SMOS V2 (Boutin et al., 2017) has similar validation characteristics as a combination of Aquarius and SMAP V4. Next we shift to present results from the NASA GMAO Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S_v2.1) production coupled model (i.e. the same model that contributes ENSO forecasts to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble Experiment). From March to June 2015, the availability of two overlapping satellite SSS instruments, Aquarius and SMAP, allows a unique opportunity to compare and contrast forecasts initialized with the benefit of these two satellite SSS observation types. We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on dynamical ENSO forecasts for the big 2015 El Nino event. We will present distinct experiments for the overlap period that include 1) freely evolving SSS (i.e. no satellite SSS as the production system), 2) Aquarius, and 3) SMAP initialization. Our results show that using Aquarius slightly improves validation of the reanalysis (including sea level and temperature statistics). Our production system without SSS assimilation generated too warm forecasts for the 2015 El Nino from March initial conditions. Incorporating Aquarius into initialization of the coupled system leads to a deeper, more realistic MLD that acts to damp the downwelling Kelvin signal and slightly cool NINO3.4 SST. With Aquarius the forecasts better match the observed amplitude of the 2015 event. On the other hand, SMAP V2 relaxation generally degrades validation statistics. At forecast initialization, SMAP is much too salty within 10o of the equator, leading to deeper MLD east of 165W. This deeper MLD leads to over-damping of the downwelling signal (i.e. relative upwelling), in turn leading to relatively too cool ENSO forecasts.

Hackert, E.↗
NASA NTRS1977

The 4th order GISS model of the global atmosphere

The new GISS 4th order model of the global atmosphere is described. It is based on 4th order quadratically conservative differences with the periodic application of a 16th order filter on the sea level pressure and potential temperature equations, a combination which is approximately enstrophy conserving. Several short range forecasts indicate a significant improvement over 2nd order forecasts with the same resolution (approximately 400 km). However the 4th order forecasts are somewhat inferior to 2nd order forecasts with double resolution. This is probably due to the presence of short waves in the range between 1000 km and 2000 km, which are computed more accurately by the 2nd order high resolution model. An operation count of the schemes indicates that with similar code optimization, the 4th order model will require approximately the same amount of computer time as the 2nd order model with the same resolution. It is estimated that the 4th order model with a grid size of 200 km provides enough accuracy to make horizontal truncation errors negligible over a period of a week for all synoptic scales (waves longer than 1000 km).

Kalnay-Rivas, E.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Real-time determination of geophysical parameters from a multibeam altimeter

Satellite radar altimeters flown aboard Skylab, GEOS-3 and Seasat-1 have provided a wealth of information on oceanic processes, ice dynamics and geodesy. This paper describes satellite altimetry in its present state and forecasts its future. A brief review of present capability to measure altitude, significant wave height, wind, and current is given. Near term and long range applications are used to indicate desirable technical improvements and an evolutionary plan is presented to develop a sensor to meet future needs. The plan shows a progression from the presently available single-beam terrain profiler to a multibeamed profiling system in the near future which could measure large scale surface slopes without knowing the precise satellite orbit. Ultimately a system would be developed that provides images of height, reflectivity, and target motion. Some of this future system is vividly illustrated by data obtained with the WFC airborne Surface Contour Radar.

Mcgoggan, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS2011

An Investigation of Interaction of Saharan Dust and Atlantic ITCZ Using Cloudsat-Calipso and A-Train Data

In this study, we investigate the radiative forcing of Saharan dust, its interactions with the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), through African easterly waves (AEW), African easterly jets (AEJ), and its impacts in short term numerical forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis using the GOCART-GEOS5 forecast system. Our approach is to develop and use an A-Train satellite simulator (ATSS) to constrain the observed aerosol index of refraction and particle size distribution by finding the values that simultaneously minimize the difference between observed CALIOP, CloudSat, OMI, and MODIS radiances and simulated radiances inverted from atmospheric model output using procedures and physical principles consistent with those used in corresponding retrieval algorithms. We use observations from the A-train and TRMM to determine relationships among the Saharan dust layer, transport by the AEW, and possible responses to dust radiative forcing in developing tropical cyclones in the A-ITCZ. Preliminary model results showing physical processes associated with the generation and transport of the Saharan dust layer, their interactions with the incipient moisture, clouds and rainfall in developing tropical cyclones will be presented. Also presented will be results of a case study of possible radiative impacts on AEW and AEJ during the NAMMA field campaign.

Lau, W.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Reply [to: Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenetic Processes during SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System]

This article is a Reply to a Comment by Scott Braun on a previously published article by O. Reale, K.-M. Lau, and E. Brin: "Atlantic tropical cyclogenetic processes during SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 global data assimilation and forecast system", by Reale, Lau and Brin, hereafter referred to as RA09. RA09 investigated the role of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in tropical cyclogenetic processes associated with a non-developing easterly wave observed during the Special Observation Period (SOP-3) phase of the 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (MAMMA). The wave was chosen because both interact heavily with Saharan air. Results showed: a) very steep moisture gradients are associated with the SAL in forecasts and analyses even at great distance from the Sahara; b) a thermal dipole (warm above, cool below) in the non-developing case. RA09A suggested that radiative effect of dust may play some role in producing a thermal structure less favorable to cyclogenesis, and also indicated that only global horizontal resolutions on the order of 20-30 kilometers can capture the large-scale transport and the fine thermal structure of the SAL Braun (2010) questions those results attributing the wave dissipation to midlatitude air. The core discussion is on a dry filament preceding the wave, on the presence of dust, and on the origin of the air contained in this dry filament. In the 'Reply', higher resolution analyses than the ones used by Braun, taken at almost coincident times with Aqua and Terra passes, are shown, to emphasize how the channel of dry air associated with W1 is indeed rich in dust. Backtrajectories on a higher resolution grid are also performed, leading to results drastically different from Braun (2010), and in particularly showing that there is a clear contribution of Saharan air. Finally, the 'Reply' presents evidence on that analyses at a horizontal resolution of one degree are inadequate to investigate such feature.

Reale, Oreste↗
NASA NTRS1986

Aspects of the determination of winds by means of scatterometry and of the utilization of vector wind data for meteorological forecasts

The present paper provides a description of four aspects of scatterometer winds and their uses. The theory of wave generation by the wind is considered along with an analysis of the properties of superobservations, and studies of intermittent versus continuous data assimilation methods for numerical weather predictions which use remotely sensed data. A comparison of the sum of squares versus the maximum likelihood method for recovering the vector winds is also conducted. Questions regarding wind speed, friction velocity, or normal stress are discussed and synoptic scale fields from Seasat-SASS data are examined.

Pierson, W. J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2000

EIT Observations of Coronal Mass Ejections

Before the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), we had only the sketchiest of clues as to the nature and topology of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) below 1.1 - 1.2 solar radii. Occasionally, dimmings (or 'transient coronal holes') were observed in time series of soft X-ray images, but they were far less frequent than CME's. Simply by imaging the Sun frequently and continually at temperatures of 0.9 - 2.5 MK we have stumbled upon a zoo of CME phenomena in this previously obscured volume of the corona: (1) waves, (2) dimmings, and (3) a great variety of ejecta. In the three and a half years since our first observations of coronal waves associated with CME's, combined Large Angle Spectroscopic Coronagraph (LASCO) and extreme ultra-violet imaging telescope (EIT) synoptic observations have become a standard prediction tool for space weather forecasters, but our progress in actually understanding the CME phenomenon in the low corona has been somewhat slower. I will summarize the observations of waves, hot (> 0.9 MK) and cool ejecta, and some of the interpretations advanced to date. I will try to identify those phenomena, analysis of which could most benefit from the spectroscopic information available from ultraviolet coronograph spectrometer (UVCS) observations.

Gurman, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Use of ground-based wind profiles in mesoscale forecasting

A brief review is presented of recent uses of ground-based wind profile data in mesoscale forecasting. Some of the applications are in real time, and some are after the fact. Not all of the work mentioned here has been published yet, but references are given wherever possible. As Gage and Balsley (1978) point out, sensitive Doppler radars have been used to examine tropospheric wind profiles since the 1970's. It was not until the early 1980's, however, that the potential contribution of these instruments to operational forecasting and numerical weather prediction became apparent. Profiler winds and radiosonde winds compare favorably, usually within a few m/s in speed and 10 degrees in direction (see Hogg et al., 1983), but the obvious advantage of the profiler is its frequent (hourly or more often) sampling of the same volume. The rawinsonde balloon is launched only twice a day and drifts with the wind. In this paper, I will: (1) mention two operational uses of data from a wind profiling system developed jointly by the Wave Propagation and Aeronomy Laboratories of NOAA; (2) describe a number of displays of these same data on a workstation for mesoscale forecasting developed by the Program for Regional Observing and Forecasting Services (PROFS); and (3) explain some interesting diagnostic calculations performed by meteorologists of the Wave Propagation Laboratory.

Schlatter, Thomas W.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Impact of Ocean Data Assimilation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts: A Case Study of the 2006 El Nino Event

This study investigates the impact of four different ocean analyses on coupled forecasts of the 2006 El Nino event. Forecasts initialized in June 2006 using ocean analyses from an assimilation that uses flow-dependent background error covariances are compared with those using static error covariances that are not flow dependent. The flow-dependent error covariances reflect the error structures related to the background ENSO instability and are generated by the coupled breeding method. The ocean analyses used in this study result from the assimilation of temperature and salinity, with the salinity data available from Argo floats. Of the analyses, the one using information from the coupled bred vectors (BV) replicates the observed equatorial long wave propagation best and exhibits more warming features leading to the 2006 El Nino event. The forecasts initialized from the BV-based analysis agree best with the observations in terms of the growth of the warm anomaly through two warming phases. This better performance is related to the impact of the salinity analysis on the state evolution in the equatorial thermocline. The early warming is traced back to salinity differences in the upper ocean of the equatorial central Pacific, while the second warming, corresponding to the mature phase, is associated with the effect of the salinity assimilation on the depth of the thermocline in the western equatorial Pacific. The series of forecast experiments conducted here show that the structure of the salinity in the initial conditions is important to the forecasts of the extension of the warm pool and the evolution of the 2006 El Ni o event.

Yang, Shu-Chih↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Stratospheric Warming of 2018 in Context of the Earth System

The major stratospheric sudden warming in February 2018 occurred in unison with changes throughout the troposphere in the northern hemisphere. Changes in large-scale dynamics and regional weather patterns are described in this study, along with features in major features of the Earth system, such as sea ice. The focus is on analyses using the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) analyses, weather prediction, and seasonal forecasts. Specific topics to discuss include: - The morphology of the sudden warming, including planetary waves in the troposphere and stratosphere.- Relationships with weather over North America. - Warming over the Arctic and anomalous sea-ice distributions. - Predictability on the one-to-four week timescales. The predictions will be based on routine products generated using the GEOS systems, as well as targeted experiments that focus on the roles of different mechanisms (such as ice-atmosphere interactions).

planetary waves↗
NASA NTRS2019

Connections Between the Stratosphere and Surface Weather Associated with the Stratospheric Sudden Warming in Early 2018

A major Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) occurred on 11 February 2018. This was the first major SSW since January 2013 and the first split-vortex SSW since January 2009. We examine the SSW and the tropospheric connections using the NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis (1980-2018) and the NASA GEOS Forward Processing (FP) system. A strong tropospheric wave forcing event in January 2018 displaced the stratospheric vortex off the pole. This displaced vortex persisted until the major SSW vortex split in February. At the time of the major SSW split vortex event the MERRA-2 100 hPa meridional heat flux, a measure of the tropospheric forcing on the stratosphere, attained record high values, associated with a strong tropospheric ridge over the US west coast and wave disturbances over the North Atlantic and Asia. The near-real-time GEOS-FP system forecasted the major SSW event with high skill out to 10 days. The analyses also show that after, the SSW, a steady circulation anomaly persisted over the European sector and the transient weather systems were concentrated over the North American continent, under the stronger of the two split vortices. The propagation of these synoptic-scale vortices around the deep, quasi-stationary vortex that extended from the surface into the stratosphere, is well illustrated in animations of extreme temperature changes near the surface over North America. A quantitative analysis of these synoptic waves and their propagation will examine their signatures in potential vorticity and other fields.

Pawson, S.↗