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At least 127 records · Page 7

Role of Maritime Continent Land Convection on the Mean State and MJO Propagation

The Maritime Continent (MC) region is known as a ‘barrier’ in the life-cycle of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). During boreal winter, the MJO detours the equatorial MC land region southward and propagates through the oceanic region. Also, about half of the MJO events that initiate over the Indian Ocean cease around the MC. The mechanism through which the MC affects MJO propagation, however, has remained unanswered. The current study investigates the MJO-MC interaction with a particular focus on the role of MC land convection. Using a global climate model that simulates both mean climate and MJO realistically, we performed two sensitivity experiments in which updraft plume radius is set to its maximum and minimum value only in the MC land grid points, making convective top deeper and shallower, respectively. In this work, our results show that MC land convection plays a key role in shaping the 3-D climatological moisture distribution around the MC through its local and non-local effects. Shallower and weaker MC land convection results in a steepening of the vertical and meridional mean moisture gradient over the MC region. The opposite is the case when MC land convection becomes deeper and stronger. The MJO’s eastward propagation is enhanced (suppressed) with the steeper (lower) mean moisture gradient. The moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MJO reveals the vertical and meridional advection of the mean MSE by MJO wind anomalies as the key processes that are responsible for the changes in MJO propagation characteristics. Our results pinpoint the critical role of the background moisture gradient on MJO propagation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of Background Meridional Moisture Gradient on the Propagation of the MJO over the Maritime Continent

This study investigates the role of the background meridional moisture gradient (MMG) on the propagation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) across the Maritime Continent (MC) region. It is found that the interannual variability of the seasonal mean MMG over the southern MC area is associated with the meridional expansion and contraction of the moist area in the vicinity of the MC. Sea surface temperature anomalies associated with relatively high and low seasonal mean MMG exhibit patterns that resemble those of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Therefore, by contrasting the years with anomalously low and high MMG, we show that MJO propagation through the MC is enhanced (suppressed) in years with higher (lower) seasonal mean MMG, although the effect is less robust when MMG anomalies are weak. Column-integrated moisture budget analysis further shows that sufficiently large MMG anomalies affect MJO activity by modulating the meridional advection of the mean moisture via MJO wind anomalies. Our results suggest that the background moisture distribution has a strong control over the propagation characteristics of the MJO in the MC region.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Magnetic storm dynamics of the thermosphere

A theoretical study of the Dst component of magnetic storms is presented. The dynamic characteristics are found significantly different for Joule dissipation and electron precipitation, leading to the conclusion that the former is probably the predominant heat source for the upper thermosphere. Composition measurements on OGO-6, which reveal markedly different characteristics in N2, O and He, can be explained on the basis of energy advection and diffusive mass transport by thermospheric winds. Essential features in the F2-region response are explicable in terms of these dynamic processes. Electric field induced motions are estimated and it is concluded that resultant adiabatic heating could be significant.

Mayr, H. G.↗

The roles of vertical mixing, solar radiation, and wind stress in a model simulation of the sea surface temperature seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacfic Ocean

The climatological seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific is simulated using a newly developed upper ocean model. The roles of vertical mixing, solar radiation, and wind stress are investigated in a hierarchy of numerical experiments with various combinations of vertical mixing algorithms and surface-forcing products. It is found that the large SST annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific is, to a large extent, controlled by the annually varying mixed layer depth which, in turn, is mainly determined by the competing effects of solar radiation and wind forcing. With the application of our hybrid vertical mixing scheme the model-simulated SST annual cycle is much improved in both amplitude and phase as compared to the case of a constant mixed layer depth. Beside the strong effects on vertical mixing, solar radiation is the primary heating term in the surface layer heat budget, and wind forcing influences SST by driving oceanic advective processes that redistribute heat in the upper ocean. For example, the SST seasonal cycle in the western Pacific basically follows the semiannual variation of solar heating, and the cycle in the central equatorial region is significantly affected by the zonal advective heat flux associated with the seasonally reversing South Equatorial Current. It has been shown in our experiments that the amount of heat flux modification needed to eliminate the annual mean SST errors in the model is, on average, no larger than the annual mean uncertainties among the various surface flux products used in this study. Whereas a bias correction is needed to account for remaining uncertainties in the annual mean heat flux, this study demonstrates that with proper treatment of mixed layer physics and realistic forcing functions the seasonal variability of SST is capable of being simulated successfully in response to external forcing without relying on a relaxation or damping formulation for the dominant surface heat flux contributions.

Chen, Dake↗

Flow downstream of the heliospheric terminal shock: Magnetic field line topology and solar cycle imprint

The topology of the magnetic field in the heliosheath is illustrated using plots of the field lines. It is shown that the Archimedean spiral inside the terminal shock is rotated back in the heliosheath into nested spirals that are advected in the direction of the interstellar wind. The 22-year solar magnetic cycle is imprinted onto these field lines in the form of unipolar magnetic envelopes surrounded by volumes of strongly mixed polarity. Each envelope is defined by the changing tilt of the heliospheric current sheet, which is in turn defined by the boundary of unipolar high-latitude regions on the Sun that shrink to the pole at solar maximum and expand to the equator at solar minimum. The detailed shape of the envelopes is regulated by the solar wind velocity structure in the heliosheath.

Nerney, Steven↗

Mixing in the Extratropical Stratosphere: Model-measurements Comparisons using MLM Diagnostics

We evaluate transport processes in the extratropical lower stratosphere for both models and measurements with the help of equivalent length diagnostic from the modified Lagrangian-mean (MLM) analysis. This diagnostic is used to compare measurements of long-lived tracers made by the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) with simulated tracers. Simulations are produced in Chemical and Transport Models (CTMs), in which meteorological fields are taken from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), the Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model (MACCM2), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) "SKYHI" model, respectively. Time series of isentropic equivalent length show that these models are able to capture major mixing and transport properties observed by CLAES, such as the formation and destruction of polar barriers, the presence of surf zones in both hemispheres. Differences between each model simulation and the observation are examined in light of model performance. Among these differences, only the simulation driven by GEOS DAS shows one case of the "top-down" destruction of the Antarctic polar vortex, as observed in the CLAES data. Additional experiments of isentropic advection of artificial tracer by GEOS DAS winds suggest that diabatic movement might have considerable contribution to the equivalent length field in the 3D CTM diagnostics.

Ma, Jun↗

Characterizing the Severe Turbulence Environments Associated With Commercial Aviation Accidents: 44 Case Study Synoptic Observational Analyses - Part 1

A 44 case study analysis of the large-scale atmospheric structure associated with development of accident-producing aircraft turbulence is described. Categorization is a function of the accident location, altitude, time of year, time of day, and the turbulence category, which classifies disturbances. National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalyses data sets and satellite imagery are employed to diagnose synoptic scale predictor fields associated with the large-scale environment preceding severe turbulence. These analyses indicate a predominance of severe accident-producing turbulence within the entrance region of a jet stream at the synoptic scale. Typically, a flow curvature region is just upstream within the jet entrance region, convection is within 100 km of the accident, vertical motion is upward, absolute vorticity is low, vertical wind shear is increasing, and horizontal cold advection is substantial. The most consistent predictor is upstream flow curvature and nearby convection is the second most frequent predictor.

Kaplan, Michael L.↗

Forecasting Tonga water vapor effects on the stratosphere during April through August 2022

The ability of an ensemble based Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) forecast system to capture the circulation anomalies created by the Tonga water vapor injection is investigated using the NASA GEOS-S2S (version 2) system. A 40-member ensemble was initialized in April 2022 based on MERRA-2 meteorology with assimilated Tonga water vapor taken from the M2-SCREAM MLS assimilation. The 40-member forecasts were run through June 2022 with 10 selected members continuing through August 2022. Duplicate ensembles were initialized without the Tonga water vapor as a control experiment. Results show that the forecasted patterns of cooling at 20 hPa, water vapor advection at 20 hPa, and zonal mean winds at 1 hPa agree well the assimilation products out to 4 months, indicating the usefulness of S2S system diagnostics in understanding the impact of the large water perturbation.

Lawrence Coy↗

A comparative analysis of rawinsonde and NIMBUS 6 and TIROS N satellite profile data

Comparisons are made between rawinsonde and satellite profiles in seven areas for a wide range of surface and weather conditions. Variables considered include temperature, dewpoint temperature, thickness, precipitable water, lapse rate of temperature, stability, geopotential height, mixing ratio, wind direction, wind speed, and kinematic parameters, including vorticity and the advection of vorticity and temperature. In addition, comparisons are made in the form of cross sections and synoptic fields for selected variables. Sounding data from the NIMBUS 6 and TIROS N satellites were used. Geostrophic wind computed from smoothed geopotential heights provided large scale flow patterns that agreed well with the rawinsonde wind fields. Surface wind patterns as well as magnitudes computed by use of the log law to extrapolate wind to a height of 10 m agreed with observations. Results of this study demonstrate rather conclusively that satellite profile data can be used to determine characteristics of large scale systems but that small scale features, such as frontal zones, cannot yet be resolved.

Scoggins, J. R.↗

Amazonian Moisture Recycling Revisited Using WRF With Water Vapor Tracers

Previous studies have estimated that 25%–35% of Amazonian precipitation comes from evapotranspiration (ET) within the basin. However, due to simplifying assumptions of traditional models, these studies primarily focus on large spatial and temporal scales. This study is the first to analyze the moisture of Amazonian origin at the annual to daily timescale in four different subregions of the Amazon. We analyze the sources, sinks and stores of moisture that originates as Amazonian ET. To do this, we use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) regional meteorological model with the added capability of water vapor tracers to track this moisture. Moisture of Amazonian origin shows strong annual and semi-annual signals, with contrasting behavior between the northern and southern parts of the basin. The tracers reveal a strong diurnal cycle of Amazonian water vapor which had not been previously reported. This signal is related to the diurnal cycle of ET, convective precipitation and advected moisture. ET's contribution to atmospheric moisture increases from early morning into the afternoon. Some of this moisture is rained out through convective storms in the early evening. Later in the night and following morning, strong winds associated with the South American Low Level Jet advect moisture downwind. Overall, the beating pattern becomes apparent when visualizing the Amazonian water vapor as an animation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wind and Weather Variability within the Californian Offshore Wind Energy Areas

Weather variability over the Northeast Pacific (NEP) region and its influence on wind resources within the Californian offshore wind energy areas (WEAs) at Humboldt and Morro Bay are characterized using 20-years reanalysis model and satellite data. The hub-height (180 m) winds at both locations are predominantly northwesterly driven by the NEP high pressure system, with strong coastal gradients in surface pressure, fluxes, planetary boundary layer (PBL) depths and cloudiness. These sharp coastal gradients and strong annual cycles of temperature and moisture advections pose potential challenges in accurately modeling the local wind resource. Hub-height wind speeds and power capacity factors significantly vary for different regimes of PBL depths, surface fluxes and rain area fractions. This highlights the importance of studying the physical mechanisms driving these weather regimes, hence our analysis of how large-scale NEP weather variability drives the local meteorology at the WEAs. Furthermore, at both WEAs, PBL tops and cloud boundaries intersect the rotor layer (80-280 m) more than 30% and 20% of the time, respectively. While PBL depths significantly modulates hub-height winds and power, cloud boundaries do not have a similar impact, likely due to reanalysis errors in simulating cloud boundaries accurately. These findings underscore the challenges in deploying tall wind turbines in shallow cloudy boundary layers, where the interaction between clouds, precipitation, and atmospheric layers can impact turbine efficiency. As turbines grow taller and are deployed in more complex meteorological conditions, understanding these interactions is crucial for improving wind power forecasting and optimizing energy production in coastal regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

QBO Generated Inter-annual Variations of the Diurnal Tide in the Mesosphere

We report results from a study with the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), which produces in the d i d tide significant inter-annual variations. Applying Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DPS), small-scale gravity waves (GW) drive the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and Semi-annual Oscillation (SAO). With a GW source that peaks at the equator and is taken to be isotropic and independent of season, the NSM generates a QBO with variable periods around 27 months and zonal wind amplitudes close to 20 m/s at 30 lan, As reported earlier, the NSM reproduces the observed equinoctial maxima in the diurnal tide at altitudes around 95 km. In the present paper it is shown that the QBO modulates the tide such that the seasonal amplitude maxima can vary from one year to another by as much as 30%. Since the period of the QBO is variable, its phase relative to the seasonal cycle changes. The magnitude of the QBO modulation of the tide thus varies considerably as our long-term model simulation shows. To shed light on the underlying mechanisms, we discuss (a) the relative importance of the linearized advection terms that involve the meridional and vertical winds of the diurnal tide and (b) the effects momentum deposition from GWs filtered by the QBO.

Mayr, Hans G.↗

Project Fog Drops 5. Task 1: A numerical model of advection fog. Task 2: Recommendations for simplified individual zero-gravity cloud physics experiments

A two-dimensional numerical model was used to investigate the formation of marine advection fog. The model predicts the evolution of potential temperature, horizontal wind, water vapor content, and liquid water content in a vertical cross section of the atmosphere as determined by vertical turbulent transfer and horizontal advection, as well as radiative cooling and drop sedimentation. The model is designed to simulate the formation, development, or dissipation of advection fog in response to transfer of heat and moisture between the atmosphere and the surface as driven by advection over horizontal discontinuities in the surface temperature. Results from numerical simulations of advection fog formation are discussed with reference to observations of marine fog. A survey of candidate fog or cloud microphysics experiments which might be performed in the low gravity environment of a shuttle-type spacecraft in presented. Recommendations are given for relatively simple experiments which are relevent to fog modification problems.

Rogers, C. W.↗

The permeability of the Antarctic vortex edge

Mixing and cross-vortex mass transport along isentropic surfaces in the lower stratosphere are investigated with a 'contour advection' technique and a semi-Lagrangian transport model for the Antarctic winter of 1993 using analyzed winds from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office data assimilation system. Results from the 'contour advection' technique show that at the vortex edge there exists a potential vorticity (PV) contour that has the smallest lengthening rate. This PV contour is referred to as the 'line of separation' because it essentially separates the inner and outer vortex. The average e-folding time for the lengthening of the 'line of separation' increases monotonically with altitude, ranging from about 7 days on the 350 K isentropic surface to about 105 days on the 500 K isentropic surface. The results also suggest the existence of a transition layer around the 400 K isentropic surface, above which the vortex is nearly completely isolated from the midlatitudes and below which the vortex is less isolated. Results from a semi-Lagrangian transport model with an idealized tracer initially inside the inner vortex show that at 425 K and above virtually no tracer is transported out of the vortex during a 40-day integration starting from July 21, 1993. At 400 K and below a small amount of the tracer is transported out of the vortex while the bulk of the tracer remains confined within the inner vortex.

Chen, Ping↗

Space-time variations of outgoing longwave and shortwave reflected radiation

Hovmoller diagrams are used to examine radiation variations at synoptic space and time scales. These variations are quantified statistically via the application of correlations in the time-longitude domain. In higher latitudes where the outgoing LW radiation (OLR) and the SW reflected (SWR) radiation are independent of longitude, the 2D autocorrelation function shows that the maximum characteristic lengths are in the downstream direction. These characteristic lengths provide a good measure of zonally advected atmospheric phenomena. Also from the 2D autocorrelation functions, correlation speeds were determined, which match well with mean longitudinal wind directions and speeds. This indicates that the major time-varying features advect with the flow, rather than propagating in some other fashion.

Rutan, David↗

Radiography in High Mass X-Ray Binaries: Micro-Structure of the Stellar Wind Through Variability of the Column Density

Context. In high mass X-ray binaries, an accreting compact object orbits a high mass star, which loses mass through a dense and in homogeneous wind. Aims. Using the compact object as an X-ray backlight, the time variability of the absorbing column density in the wind can be exploited in order to shed light on the micro-structure of the wind and obtain unbiased stellar mass-loss rates for high mass stars. Methods. We developed a simplified representation of the stellar wind where all the matter is gathered in spherical “clumps” that are radially advected away from the star. This model enables us to explore the connections between the stochastic properties of the wind and the variability of the column density for a comprehensive set of parameters related to the orbit and to the wind micro-structure, such as the size of the clumps and their individual mass. In particular, we focus on the evolution with the orbital phase of the standard deviation of the column density and of the characteristic duration of enhanced absorption episodes. Using the porosity length, we derive analytical predictions and compare them to the standard deviations and coherence time scales that were obtained. Results. We identified the favorable systems and orbital phases to determine the wind micro-structure. The coherence time scale of the column density is shown to be the self-crossing time of a single clump in front of the compact object. We thus provide a procedure to get accurate measurements of the size and of the mass of the clumps, purely based on the observable time variability of the column density. Conclusions. The coherence time scale grants direct access to the size of the clumps, while their mass can be deduced separately from the amplitude of the variability. We further show how monitoring the variability at superior conjunctions can probe the onset of the clump-forming region above the stellar photosphere. If the high column density variations in some high mass X-ray binaries are due to unaccreted clumps which are passing by the line-of-sight, this would require high mass clumps to reproduce the observed peak-to-peak amplitude and coherence time scales. These clump properties are marginally compatible with the ones derived from radiative-hydrodynamics simulations. Alternatively, the following components could contribute to the variability of the column density: larger orbital scale structures produced by a mechanism that has yet to be identified or a dense environment in the immediate vicinity of the accretor, such as an accretion disk, an outflow, or a spherical shell surrounding the magnetosphere of the accreting neutron star.

stars: mass loss↗

Severe Convective Storms in Limited Instability Organized by Pattern and Distribution

Abstract Severe convection occurring in high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) environments is a common cool-season threat in the southeastern United States. Previous studies of HSLC convection document the increased operational challenges that these environments present compared to their high-CAPE counterparts, corresponding to higher false-alarm ratios and lower probability of detection for severe watches and warnings. These environments can exhibit rapid destabilization in the hours prior to convection, sometimes associated with the release of potential instability. Here, we use self-organizing maps (SOMs) to objectively identify environmental patterns accompanying HSLC cool-season severe events and associate them with variations in severe weather frequency and distribution. Large-scale patterns exhibit modest variation within the HSLC subclass, featuring strong surface cyclones accompanied by vigorous upper-tropospheric troughs and northward-extending regions of instability, consistent with prior studies. In most patterns, severe weather occurs immediately ahead of a cold front. Other convective ingredients, such as lower-tropospheric vertical wind shear, near-surface equivalent potential temperature (θ e ) advection, and the release of potential instability, varied more significantly across patterns. No single variable used to train SOMs consistently demonstrated differences in the distribution of severe weather occurrence across patterns. Comparison of SOMs based on upper and lower quartiles of severe occurrence demonstrated that the release of potential instability was most consistently associated with higher-impact events in comparison to other convective ingredients. Overall, we find that previously developed HSLC composite parameters reasonably identify high-impact HSLC events. Significance Statement Even when atmospheric instability is not optimal for severe convective storms, in some situations they can still occur, presenting increased challenges to forecasters. These marginal environments may occur at night or during the cool season, when people are less attuned to severe weather threats. Here, we use a sorting algorithm to classify different weather patterns accompanying such storms, and we distinguish which specific patterns and weather system features are most strongly associated with severe storms. Our goals are to increase situational awareness for forecasters and to improve understanding of the processes leading to severe convection in marginal environments.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Monitoring changes in upper ocean heat storage from satellites

A one-dimensional model of the upper ocean mixed-layer was developed to determine how the parameters which can be measured from satellites affect the development of the layer. The results show that the form of the dissipation term is important in achieving cyclic annual states, that the layer deepending rate depends on the averaging period for the surface heat flux and wind stress, that wind direction, as well as magnitude, can affect the deepening rate and that horizontal advective effects cannot simply be superimposed on the model results. An algorithm is given which uses satellite derived wind stress and sea surface temperature data to predict real time changes in upper ocean heat storage during the cooling seasons.

Miller, J. R.↗