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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Using Commercial Satellite Imagery to Reconstruct 3 m and Daily Spring Snow Water Equivalent

Snow water equivalent (SWE) distribution at fine spatial scales (≤10 m) is difficult to estimate due to modeling and observational constraints. However, the distribution of SWE throughout the spring snowmelt season is often correlated to the timing of snow disappearance. Here, we show that snow cover maps generated from PlanetScope's constellation of Dove Satellites can resolve the 3 m date of snow disappearance across seven alpine domains in California and Colorado. Across a 5-year period (2019–2023), the average uncertainty in the date of snow disappearance, or the period of time between the last date of observed snow cover and the first date of observed snow absence, was 3 days. Using a simple shortwave-based snowmelt model calibrated at nearby snow pillows, the PlanetScope date of snow disappearance could be used to reconstruct spring SWE. Relative to lidar SWE estimates, the SWE reconstruction had a spatial coefficient of correlation of 0.75, and SWE spatial variability that was biased by 9%, on average. SWE reconstruction biases were then improved to within 0.04 m, on average, by calibrating snowmelt rates to track the spring temporal evolution of fractional snow cover observed by PlanetScope, including fractional snow cover over the full modeling domain, and across domain subsections where snowmelt rates may differ. This study demonstrates the utility of fine-scale and high-frequency optical observations of snow cover, and the simple and annually repeatable connections between snow cover and spring snow water resources in regions with seasonal snowpack.

Justin M Pflug↗

Development of a Weibull posterior distribution by combining a Weibull prior with an actual failure distribution using Bayesian inference

A Bayesian inference process for system logistical planning is presented which provides a method for incorporating actual failures with prediction data for an ongoing and improving reliability estimates. The process uses the Weibull distribution, and provides a means for examining and updating logistical and maintenance support needs.

Giuntini, Michael E.↗

Temporal analysis of the October 1989 proton flare using computerized anatomical models

The GOES-7 time history data of hourly averaged integral proton fluxes at various particle kinetic energies are analyzed for the solar proton event that occurred between October 19 and 29, 1989. By analyzing the time history data, the dose rates which may vary over many orders of magnitude in the early phases of the flare can be estimated as well as the cumulative dose as a function of time. Basic transport calculations are coupled with detailed body organ thickness distributions from computerized anatomical models to estimate dose rates and cumulative doses to 20 critical body organs. For a 5-cm-thick water shield, cumulative skin, eye, and blood-forming-organ dose equivalents of 1.27, 1.23, and 0.41 Sv, respectively, are estimated. These results are approximately 40-50 percent less than the widely used 0- and 5-cm slab dose estimates. The risk of cancer incidence and mortality are also estimated for astronauts protected by various water shield thicknesses.

Simonsen, L. C.↗

Sensor fusion IV: Control paradigms and data structures; Proceedings of the Meeting, Boston, MA, Nov. 12-15, 1991

Various papers on control paradigms and data structures in sensor fusion are presented. The general topics addressed include: decision models and computational methods, sensor modeling and data representation, active sensing strategies, geometric planning and visualization, task-driven sensing, motion analysis, models motivated biology and psychology, decentralized detection and distributed decision, data fusion architectures, robust estimation of shapes and features, application and implementation. Some of the individual subjects considered are: the Firefly experiment on neural networks for distributed sensor data fusion, manifold traversing as a model for learning control of autonomous robots, choice of coordinate systems for multiple sensor fusion, continuous motion using task-directed stereo vision, interactive and cooperative sensing and control for advanced teleoperation, knowledge-based imaging for terrain analysis, physical and digital simulations for IVA robotics.

Schenker, Paul S.↗

Biomass Estimation from Simulated GEDI, ICESat-2 and NISAR Across Environmental Gradients in Sonoma County, California

Estimates of the magnitude and distribution of aboveground carbon in Earth’s forests remain uncertain, yet knowledge of forest carbon content at a global scale is critical for forest management in support of climate mitigation. In light of this knowledge gap, several upcoming spaceborne missions aim to map forest aboveground biomass, and many new biomass products are expected from these datasets. As these new missions host different technologies, each with relative strengths and weaknesses for biomass retrieval, as well as different spatial resolutions, consistently comparing or combining biomass estimates from these new datasets will be challenging. This paper presents a demonstration of an inter-comparison of biomass estimates from simulations of three NASA missions (GEDI, ICESat-2 and NISAR) over Sonoma county in California, USA. We use a high resolution, locally calibrated airborne lidar map as our reference dataset, and emphasize the importance of considering uncertainties in both reference maps and spaceborne estimates when conducting biomass product validation. GEDI and ICESat-2 were simulated from airborne lidar point clouds, while UAVSAR’s L-band backscatter was used as a proxy for NISAR. To estimate biomass for the lidar missions we used GEDI’s footprint-level biomass algorithms, and also adapted these for application to ICESat-2. For UAVSAR, we developed a locally trained biomass model, calibrated against the ALS reference map. Each mission simulation was evaluated in comparison to the local reference map at its native product resolution (25 m, 100m transect, and 1 ha) yielding RMSEs of 57%, 75%, and 89% for GEDI, NISAR, and ICESat-2 respectively. RMSE values increased for GEDI’s power beam during simulated daytime conditions (64%), coverage beam during nighttime conditions (72%), and coverage beam daytime conditions (87%). We also test the application of GEDI’s biomass modeling framework for estimation of biomass from ICESat-2, and fine that ICESat-2 yields reasonable biomass estimates, particularly in relatively short, open canopies. Results suggest that while all three missions will produce datasets useful for biomass mapping, tall, dense canopies such as those found in Sonoma County present the greatest challenges for all three missions, while steep slopes also prove challenging for single-date SAR based biomass retrieval. Our methods provide guidance for the inter-comparison and validation of spaceborne biomass estimates through the use of airborne lidar reference maps, and could be repeated with on-orbit estimates in any area with high quality field plot and ALS data. These methods allow for regional interpretations and filtering of multi-mission biomass estimates toward improved wall-to-wall biomass maps through data fusion.

GEDI↗

Assessment of tritium effluent from Prototype Generation IV Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor

We report a tritium transport model for a pool-type sodium cooled fast reactor was developed for estimation of tritium effluents from the Prototype Generation IV Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (PGSFR). For this purpose, the transport model developed for Experimental Breeder Reactor II and Fast Flux Test Facility was updated and validated. The tritium production rate from ternary fission and activations in PGSFR were calculated by the Argonne Reactor Computation (ARC) code suite for fast reactor analysis, and due to the potential uncertainties in source terms and variations of cold trap performance and material permeability during reactor operation, the tritium distributions and tritium effluents were estimated for several bounding cases. The upper bounding gaseous and liquid tritium release rates from PGSFR are similar to ~440.7 Ci/year and 14.7 Ci/year, respectively. The gaseous tritium effluent is about few orders of magnitude smaller than the regulatory constraint of the tritium concentration in the air. The peak tritium concentration in the steam-generator feedwater is similar to ~1.1x10 -3 mu Ci/g, which is required to be diluted prior to releasing as tritiated water. The accumulated tritium in the cold trap after five cycle operations is ~ 52,000 Ci. Because of significant conservatism in these upper bounding estimations, it is expected that the tritium effluent at the nominal case with plausible source terms would be about 2 orders of magnitude smaller than that of the upper bounding case.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Estimation of Boltzmann damping coefficients in beam models

A distributed parameter model of a flexible structure with Boltzmann type viscoelastic damping is discussed. A computational method for the estimation of the damping parameters is developed, and theoretical convergence results are given. An example is presented in which actual experimental data is used, demonstrating the efficacy of the computational method and the plausibility of the model for predicting response in damped structures.

Banks, H. T.↗

Likelihood non-Gaussianity in large-scale structure analyses

The standard present-day large-scale structure (LSS) analyses make a major assumption in their Bayesian parameter inference – that the likelihood has a Gaussian form. For summary statistics currently used in LSS, this assumption, even if the underlying density field is Gaussian, cannot be correct in detail. We investigate the impact of this assumption on two recent LSS analyses: the Beutler et al. power spectrum multipole ($P_ℓ$) analysis and the Sinha et al. group multiplicity function ($ζ$) analysis. Using non-parametric divergence estimators on mock catalogues originally constructed for covariance matrix estimation, we identify significant non-Gaussianity in both the $P_ℓ$ and $ζ$ likelihoods. We then use Gaussian mixture density estimation and independent component analysis on the same mocks to construct likelihood estimates that approximate the true likelihood better than the Gaussian pseudo-likelihood. Using these likelihood estimates, we accurately estimate the true posterior probability distribution of the Beutler et al. and Sinha et al. parameters. Likelihood non-Gaussianity shifts the fσ8 constraint by -0.44σ, but otherwise does not significantly impact the overall parameter constraints of Beutler et al. For the $ζ$ analysis, using the pseudo-likelihood significantly underestimates the uncertainties and biases the constraints of the Sinha et al. halo occupation parameters. For log $M_1$ and α, the posteriors are shifted by +0.43σ and -0.51σ and broadened by 42 per cent and 66 per cent, respectively. The divergence and likelihood estimation methods we present provide a straightforward framework for quantifying the impact of likelihood non-Gaussianity and deriving more accurate parameter constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Assessment of Crew Time for Maintenance and Repair Activities for Lunar Surface Missions

NASA is currently evaluating different methods to predict how much time crewmembers will spend conducting repair and maintenance activities on future space missions. As mission scope and spacecraft architectures change, understanding how crew repair and maintenance timelines are impacted by mission operations and technology changes is vital for future mission planning. Past work has been done using historical International Space Station (ISS) data to accurately predict crew habitation and operation timelines, resulting in the development of NASA’s Exploration Crew Time Model (ECTM). However, understanding crew maintenance and repair requirements has posed a unique challenge due to the complexity of available datasets, the probabilistic nature of sub-system failures, and the impacts of reliability growth on failure rates. This paper presents a methodology to collect and condition empirical repair and maintenance time data from available datasets, to extrapolate from that data to estimate projected maintenance and repair times for a lunar Surface Habitat (SH), and to assess how uncertainty in repair time could impact utilization time on the lunar surface. NASA ISS maintenance and crew time data are logged into two central databases: the Maintenance Data Collection (MDC) and the Operations Planning Timeline Integration System (OPTimIS). Separately, each of these two datasets capture only portions of the complete set of data required to generate an accurate assessment of crew time spent on maintenance activities at a sub-system level. To create a more useful crew time estimate for maintenance timelines, the authors developed a methodology to capture relevant data from each set and combine and utilize that data by linking crew time requirements to specific components. The authors compare the failure logs in the MDC to crew activity logs pulled from OPTimIS and then process the data to estimate required repair time for each failure and repair event. The entire maintenance activity dataset is then categorized based on the class of failed component to ensure a significant sample size for each class and accurate crew time estimates for any components lacking relevant data. This resultant component repair time data can be used in the future to generate Mean Time to Repair (MTTR) estimates and confidence intervals for each class of component based on a probabilistic distribution of documented maintenance events. These improved MTTR values can then be applied to candidate element sub-system architectures, along with component Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) data to generate distributions for potential required system crew repair time estimates for a given mission. The authors applied these modeling methods to a case study of a crewed mission to the planned SH and produced expected corrective maintenance crew time distributions. The results produced an expected corrective maintenance crew time at over 24 hours per mission, and a maintenance crew time distribution that reflects the importance of planning for sufficient maintenance requirements each mission. Repair time distributions can then be used to develop more accurate crew schedules and to assess potential available utilization time.

Crew Time↗

LandCast Mosaic: Reconstructing Global Population Distributions, 1975-2025

LandCast Mosaic (LCM) provides a global, high-resolution gridded population dataset spanning 1975–2025, representing annual, scenario-consistent estimates of daytime, nighttime, and ambient population distributions. LCM builds on the 2025 LandScan Mosaic (LSM) population data by backcasting to earlier years using historical changes in built-surface area derived from the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) and authoritative population counts from international datasets. The workflow scales 2025 building-informed gridded population estimates according to observed changes in built surface, applies linear interpolation for intermediate years, and normalizes estimates to match administrative- and country-level totals. The resulting dataset offers consistent, globally gridded population estimates over fifty years, suitable for temporal analyses of population dynamics, disaster risk modeling, and urban planning applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Estimation in a discrete tail rate family of recapture sampling models

In the context of recapture sampling design for debugging experiments the problem of estimating the error or hitting rate of the faults remaining in a system is considered. Moment estimators are derived for a family of models in which the rate parameters are assumed proportional to the tail probabilities of a discrete distribution on the positive integers. The estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal and fully efficient. Their fixed sample properties are compared, through simulation, with those of the conditional maximum likelihood estimators.

Gupta, Rajan↗

MEGASTAR: The Meaning of Energy Growth: An Assessment of Systems, Technologies, and Requirements

A methodology for the display and analysis of postulated energy futures for the United States is presented. A systems approach that includes the methodology of technology assessment is used to examine three energy scenarios--the Westinghouse Nuclear Electric Economy, the Ford Technical Fix Base Case and a MEGASTAR generated Alternate to the Ford Technical Fix Base Case. The three scenarios represent different paths of energy consumption for the present to the year 2000. Associated with these paths are various mixes of fuels, conversion, distribution, conservation and end-use technologies. MEGASTAR presents the estimated times and unit requirements to supply the fuels, conversion and distribution systems for the postulated end uses for the three scenarios and then estimates the aggregate manpower, materials, and capital requirements needed to develop the energy system described by the particular scenario. The total requirements and the energy subsystems for each scenario are assessed for their primary impacts in the areas of society, the environment, technology and the economy.

Source record↗

MEGASTAR: The meaning of growth. An assessment of systems, technologies, and requirements

A methodology for the display and analysis of postulated energy futures for the United States is presented. A systems approach methodology including the methodology of technology assessment is used to examine three energy scenarios--the Westinghouse Nuclear Electric Economy, the Ford Technical Fix Base Case and a MEGASTAR generated Alternate to the Ford Technical Fix Base Case. The three scenarios represent different paths of energy consumption from the present to the year 2000. Associated with these paths are various mixes of fuels, conversion, distribution, conservation and end-use technologies. MEGASTAR presents the estimated times and unit requirements to supply the fuels, conversion and distribution systems for the postulated end uses for the three scenarios and then estimates the aggregate manpower, materials, and capital requirements needed to develop the energy system described by the particular scenario.

Source record↗

AC Power Flow Based DLMP Calculation and Decomposition Method to Smooth Power Fluctuation of Distributed Renewable Energy Sources

As the penetration of renewable energy sources increases, the growing renewable power variability brings ramping issues to power systems. Meanwhile, the development of distributed energy resources (DERs) makes the distribution systems to provide both energy and ancillary services. To incentivise individual resources and customers to alleviate ramping issues on the demand side, a two-stage distribution locational marginal price (DLMP) calculation and decomposition method is developed to formulate the marginal power ramping price for DERs. In the first stage of the proposed method, a distribution system operator market scheduling model based on AC optimal power flow is designed to estimate the optimal operating point of the distribution system. Subsequently, the voltage and power flow constraints are linearised in stage two to calculate DLMP. Finally, based on the Lagrange function and sensitivity factors, DLMP is decomposed to the marginal costs for active/reactive power, voltage management, power loss and power variability. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed model can effectively smooth the power fluctuation and reduce the ramping flexibility requirements of distribution systems.

AC optimal power flow↗

New production in the warm waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean

The average depth-integrated rate of new production in the tropical Pacific Ocean was estimated from a calculation of horizontal and vertical nitrate balance over the region enclosed by the climatological 26 C isotherm. The net turbulent flux of nitrate into the region was computed in terms of the climatological net surface heat flux and the nitrate-temperature relationship at the base of the 26 C isotherm. The net advective transport of nitrate into the region was estimated using the mean nitrate distribution obtained from the analysis of historical data and previous results of a general circulation model of the tropical Pacific. The rate of new production resulting from vertical turbulent fluxes of nitrate was found to be similar in magnitude to that due to advective transport. Most (about 75%) of the advective input of nitrate was due to the horizontal transport of nutrient-rich water from the eastern equatorial region rather than from equatorial upwelling. An average rate of new production of 14.5 - 16 g C/sq m/yr was found for the warm waters of the tropical Pacific region. These values are in good agreement with previous estimates for this region and are almost five times less than is estimated for the eastern equatorial Pacific, where most of the nutrient upwelling occurs.

Pena, M. Angelica↗

Uranium distribution and 'excessive' U-He ages in iron meteoritic troilite

Fission tracking techniques were used to measure the uranium distribution in meteoritic troilite and graphite. The obtained fission tracking data showed a heterogeneous distribution of tracks with a significant portion of track density present in the form of uranium clusters at least 10 microns in size. The matrix containing the clusters was also heterogeneous in composition with U concentrations of about 0.2-4.7 ppb. U/He ages could not be estimated on the basis of the heterogeneous U distributions, so previously reported estimates of U/He ages in the presolar range are probably invalid.

Fisher, D. E.↗

DATA-DRIVEN ALGORITHMS FOR DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM OPERATION AND CONTROL

Transactive energy systems are an alternative solution for the problems that distribution system operators face due to an increase in the use of distributed energy resources(DERs) and resulting much required scalability in managing active distribution system. To meet the reliability, sustainability and security requirement, ecient management and control of DERs including distributed generators, energy storage systems, and demand response is necessary. DERs can provide services such as reactive power compensation, voltage control, energy balancing, peak load reduction. These edge resources can also be used for system restoration after the extreme events within regulatory bound and enabling resiliency of the electric grid. While there are numbers of related work focused on solving these problems, availability of additional data resources has not been utilized to its potential to enable the reliable, sustainable and resilient electric grid. In order to address these challenges, data-driven algorithms have been proposed in this dissertation, including a) Volt/Var control, b) activity aware demand response and c) estimation of behind the meter distributed energy resources. Results indicate satisfactory performance of the developed algorithms.

ZHANG, YUE↗

Mind the Gap: Exploring the Underground of the NASA Space Cancer Risk Model

The REID quantifies the lifetime risk of death from radiation-induced cancer in an exposed astronaut. The NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) 2012 mode incorporates elements from physics, biology, epidemiology, and statistics to generate the REID distribution. The current model quantifies the space radiation environment, radiation quality, and dose-rate effects to estimate a NASA-weighted dose. This weighted dose is mapped to the excess risk of radiation-induced cancer mortality from acute exposures to gamma rays and then transferred to an astronaut population. Finally, the REID is determined by integrating this risk over the individual's lifetime. The calculated upper 95% confidence limit of the REID is used to restrict an astronaut's permissible mission duration (PMD) for a proposed mission. As a statistical quantity characterized by broad, subjective uncertainties, REID estimates for space missions result in wide distributions. Currently, the upper 95% confidence level is over 350% larger than the mean REID value, which can severely limit an astronaut's PMD. The model incorporates inputs from multiple scientific disciplines in the risk estimation process. Physics and particle transport models calculate how radiation moves through space, penetrates spacecraft, and makes its way to the human beings onboard. Epidemiological studies of exposures from atomic bombings, medical treatments, and power plants are used to quantify health risks from acute and chronic low linear energy transfer (LET) ionizing radiation. Biological studies in cellular and animal models using radiation at various LETs and energies inform quality metrics for ions present in space radiation. Statistical methodologies unite these elements, controlling for mathematical and scientific uncertainty and variability. Despite current progress, these research platforms contain knowledge gaps contributing to the large uncertainties still present in the model. The NASA Space Radiation Program Element (SRPE) defines the knowledge gaps that impact our understanding of the cancer risks. These gaps are outlined in NASA's Human Research Roadmap [4], which identifies the research questions and actions recommended for reducing the uncertainty in the current NSCR model and for formulation of future models. The greatest contributors to uncertainty in the current model include radiation quality, dose rate effects, and the transfer of exposure-based risk from other populations to an astronaut population. Future formulations of the risk model may benefit from including other potential sources of uncertainty such as space dosimetry, errors in human epidemiology data, and the impact of microgravity and other spaceflight stressors. Here, we discuss the current capabilities of the NSCR-2012 model and several immediate research needs, highlighting areas expected to have an operational impact on the current model schema. The following subway-style route map outlines the NSCR-2012 model (Green Line), emphasizing the research gaps in the Human Research Roadmap for risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis (Stops on Dashed Lines). The map diagrams how these research gaps feed specific portions of the model.

Chappell, L. J.↗