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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Application of X-Ray Pulsar Navigation: A Characterization of the Earth Orbit Trade Space

The potential for pulsars as a navigation source has been studied since their discovery in 1967. X-ray pulsar navigation (XNAV) is a celestial navigation system that uses the consistent timing nature of x-ray photons from millisecond pulsars (MSP) to perform space navigation. By comparing the detected arrival of x-ray photons to a reference database of expected pulsar light-curve timing models, one can infer a range and range rate measurement based on light time delay. Much of the challenge of XNAV comes from the faint signal, availability, and distant nature of pulsars. This is a study of potential pulsar XNAV measurements to measure extended Kalman filter (EKF) tracking performance with a wide trade space of bounded Earth orbits, using a simulation of existing x-ray detector space hardware. An example of an x-ray detector for XNAV is the NASA Station Explorer for X-ray Timing and Navigation (SEXTANT) mission, a technology demonstration of XNAV set to perform on the International Space Station (ISS) in late 2016early 2017. XNAV hardware implementation is driven by trajectory and environmental influences which add noise to the x-ray pulse signal. In a closed Earth orbit, the radiation environment can exponentially increase the signal noise from x-ray pulsar sources, decreasing the quality and frequency of measurements. The SEXTANT mission in particular improves on the signal to noise ratio by focusing an array of 56 x-ray silicon drift detectors at one pulsar target at a time. This reduces timing glitches and other timing noise contributions from ambient x-ray sources to within a 100 nanosecond resolution. This study also considers the SEXTANT scheduling challenges inherent in a single target observation. Finally, as the navigation sources are now relatively inertial targets, XNAV measurements are also subject to periods of occultation from various celestial bodies. This study focuses on the characterization of these drivers in closed Earth orbits and is not a tuning analysis of the EKF. The study shows that the closed Earth orbit for XNAV performance is reliant on the orbit semi-major axis and eccentricity as well as orbit inclination. These parameters are the primary drivers of pulsar measurement availability and significantly influence the natural spacecraft orbit dynamics. Sensitivity to initial orbit determination error growth due to the scarcity of XNAV measurements within an orbital period require appropriate timing of initial XNAV measurements. The orbit angles of argument of perigee and right ascension of the ascending node, alongside the other orbit parameters, complete the initial cadence of XNAV measurements. The performance of initial XNAV measurements then propagates throughout the experimental period. The study provides a basis to missions who wish to consider XNAV as a potential navigation source in a closed Earth orbit design. It provides a family of orbit trajectories as well as other modeling considerations needed to effectively evaluate if XNAV is an effective navigation source for a potential mission. As an EKF is sensitive to a linearized estimated state, this study has a direct benefit of providing effective XNAV measurements to maintain spacecraft tracking, independent of other navigation sources. In the particular use case of the SEXTANT mission, it also provides a novel scheduling algorithm which addresses the need to prioritize and manage pulsar observations for effective navigation.

x-ray↗

Simulation and Regression Modeling of Nasa'S X-59 Low-Boom Carpets Across America

NASA’s X-59 aircraft is predicted to produce a significantly quieter cruise sonic boom than traditional N-wave-producing aircraft. A propagation simulation study was undertaken to quantify loudness levels, exposure size, and variability of the X-59’s low-boom carpet using realistic atmospheric profiles across the contiguous United States of America (CONUS). Near-field pressure data of the X-59 in supersonic cruise from NASA’s fully unstructured Navier–Stokes three-dimensional (known as FUN3D) computational fluid dynamics code were propagated using NASA’s PCBoom code, which solves an enhanced Burgers equation along acoustic rays. Atmospheric profiles from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Forecast System Version 2 database were used for propagation at 138 locations across the CONUS. Carpets at each location were generated for aircraft headings in the four cardinal directions. Over one million X-59 carpets were generated in total. The effects of the heading, season, geography, and climate zone on boom levels and exposure size are presented. Multiple linear regression models were developed to estimate carpet width and loudness metrics across the CONUS. These results inform regulators and mission planners on expected variations in boom levels and carpet extent from atmospheric variations. Understanding potential carpet variability is important when planning community noise surveys using the X-59.

X-59↗

Simulation and Regression Modeling of X-59 Low-Boom Carpets Across America

The NASA X-59 aircraft is predicted to produce a significantly quieter cruise sonic boom than traditional N-wave-producing aircraft. A propagation simulation study was undertaken to quantify loudness levels, exposure size, and variability of the X-59 low-boom carpet using realistic atmospheric profiles across the contiguous United States of America (CONUS). Near-field pressure data of the X-59 in supersonic cruise from NASA’s fully unstructured Navier–Stokes three-dimensional (known as FUN3D) computational fluid dynamics code were propagated using NASA’s PCBoom code, which solves an enhanced Burgers equation along acoustic rays. Atmospheric profiles from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Forecast System Version 2 database were used for propagation at 138 locations across the CONUS. Carpets at each location were generated for aircraft headings in the four cardinal directions. Over one million X-59 carpets were generated in total. The effects of the heading, season, geography, and climate zone on boom levels and exposure size are presented. Multiple linear regression models were developed to estimate carpet width and loudness metrics across the CONUS. These results inform regulators and mission planners on expected variations in boom levels and carpet extent from atmospheric variations. Understanding potential carpet variability is important when planning community noise surveys using the X-59.

X-59↗

Implementation of tritium transport in a gas-liquid contactor CFD simulation of tritium extraction from lead-lithium in ANSYS fluent

Modifications to the Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) software ANSYS Fluent were done to quantify and characterize tritium transport in Gas-Liquid Contactors (GLCs). A double-slit, Ergun-like equation was employed for the porous media model, with Ergun coefficients validated with Sulzer’s Sulcol software. Tritium transport from PbLi within the GLC was verified against analytical models. The geometry of the CFD model was based on the MELODIE GLC experiment. The hydrodynamic CFD pressure drop results align well with SulCol estimations and fall between the predictions of the analytical Delft-Olujic and Billet & Schultes models. In terms of mass transfer efficiency, traditional mass transfer models showed a significant deviation from experimental results when using varying values of H solubility in PbLi. A saturation phenomenon occurred when utilizing high solubility values for hydrogen in PbLi. In conclusion, a modified film theory mass transfer coefficient, incorporating either the Delft-Olujic or Billet & Schultes wettability model, yielded CFD-predicted extraction efficiencies that closely matched experimental measurements.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Numerical simulations of liquid jetting with solid inclusions

The dynamics of finite-sized particles in fluids, and their influence on the overall flow, are of great interest across several industrial, environmental, and medical fields. In the context of inkjet printing, the presence of solid inclusions can be either intentional, as in additive manufacturing, or unintentional, as in standard printing processes. These inclusions can strongly impact the jetting process, causing effects such as jet asymmetry, bubble entrapment, and the formation of satellite droplets. Understanding and controlling particle behavior is therefore essential, particularly to predict how and when particles are ejected over multiple jetting cycles. It is therefore critical to develop reliable models that allow for a deeper understanding of the complex interplay between particle and fluid during the whole printing process. To address this, we present a tailored implementation of the Color-Gradient multicomponent Lattice Boltzmann Method for fully resolved three-dimensional (3D) simulations of multicycle liquid jetting with particles. Our method supports realistic parameter settings aligned with industrial inkjet systems, and we provide both qualitative and quantitative validation against experimental data. Additionally, we introduce a simplified model based on the Stokes drag law, in which solid particles are represented as point particles and do not influence the fluid flow. Despite this limitation, the model offers a computationally efficient means to explore the vast parameter space typically encountered in industrial applications, allowing, e.g., identifying critical ejection regions and estimating the number of cycles required for particle release. These qualitative insights are valuable for guiding and complement fully two-way coupled simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Enhancing Gaussian Process Surrogates for Optimization and Posterior Approximation via Random Exploration

This paper proposes novel noise-free Bayesian optimization strategies that rely on a random exploration step to enhance the accuracy of Gaussian process surrogate models. The new algorithms retain the ease of implementation of the classical GP-UCB algorithm, but the additional random exploration step accelerates their convergence, nearly achieving the optimal convergence rate. Furthermore, to facilitate Bayesian inference with intractable likelihoods, we propose to utilize optimization iterates for maximum a posteriori estimation to build a Gaussian process surrogate model for the unnormalized log-posterior density. We provide bounds for the Hellinger distance between the true and the approximate posterior distributions in terms of the number of design points. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our Bayesian optimization algorithms in nonconvex benchmark objective functions, in a machine learning hyperparameter tuning problem, and in a black-box engineering design problem. The effectiveness of our posterior approximation approach is demonstrated in two Bayesian inference problems for parameters of dynamical systems.

Bayesian inference↗

Non-Invasive Electrode Impedance Estimation for Optimized Charge Profile Parameterization of Lithium-Ion Batteries

This work presents a non-invasive method for parameterizing a physically motivated equivalent circuit model of lithium-ion batteries using operando electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and time-domain data. The proposed model consists exclusively of linear circuit elements, enabling computationally efficient simulation and real-time implementation on battery management system chips. By integrating frequency- and time-domain measurements, the model accurately estimates internal states such as the negative electrode potential, achieving a root mean square error of 12.3 mV during fast charging validation. Parameterization requires only rate tests with sinusoidal perturbations at three different ambient temperatures, making the approach experimentally accessible. The model reveals key insights into battery behavior, including rate-dependent overpotentials primarily governed by charge transfer kinetics at the positive electrode, and temperature-dependent impedance contributions from both charge transfer and solid-state diffusion processes. Validation using reference electrodes confirms the model’s ability to detect lithium plating onset and reproduce impedance behavior across a wide range of operating conditions. The approach enables in situ optimization of fast charging profiles and lays the foundation for future extensions incorporating aging effects and plating dynamics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Addressing delayed case reporting in infectious disease forecast modeling

Infectious disease forecasting is of great interest to the public health community and policymakers, since forecasts can provide insight into disease dynamics in the near future and inform interventions. Due to delays in case reporting, however, forecasting models may often underestimate the current and future disease burden. In this paper, we propose a general framework for addressing reporting delay in disease forecasting efforts with the goal of improving forecasts. We propose strategies for leveraging either historical data on case reporting or external internet-based data to estimate the amount of reporting error. We then describe several approaches for adapting general forecasting pipelines to account for under- or over-reporting of cases. We apply these methods to address reporting delay in data on dengue fever cases in Puerto Rico from 1990 to 2009 and to reports of influenza-like illness (ILI) in the United States between 2010 and 2019. Through a simulation study, we compare method performance and evaluate robustness to assumption violations. Our results show that forecasting accuracy and prediction coverage almost always increase when correction methods are implemented to address reporting delay. Some of these methods required knowledge about the reporting error or high quality external data, which may not always be available. Provided alternatives include excluding recently-reported data and performing sensitivity analysis. This work provides intuition and guidance for handling delay in disease case reporting and may serve as a useful resource to inform practical infectious disease forecasting efforts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A comparison of two algorithms for simulating collisionless systems

Two completely different simulation algorithms are compared by applying them to the same stellar dynamical problems: one is a self-consistent field (SCF) method for solving Poisson's equation and the other is a phase-space method for integrating the collisionless Boltzmann equation. We consider simulations of spherical stellar systems which are initially far from equilibrium and relax to their final states by gravitational collapse. The initial conditions consist of either uniform-density spheres or nonequilibrium models having Plummer density profiles, in which velocity dispersions are assigned according to given virial ratios. If a few tens of radial expansion terms with hundreds of thousands of particles are used in the SCF code, excellent agreement is found between the results it generates and those obtained with the phase-space solver, provided that a sufficiently large number of grid cells are employed with the latter. These findings imply that for simulating collisionless systmes over many dynamical times, the SCF approach based on sampling phase space is competitive with the approach treating phase space as a continuous fluid. The results of our tests make it possible to estimate the number of particles and basis functions required in situations like those modeled. Limitations of the SCF method and the choice of an optimal set of basis functions are also discussed.

Hozumi, Shunsuke↗

Soil Moisture Buffers the Impact of Precipitation Variability on Ecosystem Productivity

Water availability governs ecosystem productivity, yet estimates of vegetation sensitivity to water can differ greatly depending on whether the sensitivity is examined spatially or temporally. In particular, the spatial sensitivity is often reported to be much stronger than temporal sensitivities, leading to highly uncertain projections of ecosystem responses to future climate change when using space-for-time substitution. The large difference between spatial and temporal sensitivities remains unexplained. Prior research, however, primarily relied on precipitation as the water availability proxy, whereas vegetation responds to soil moisture. Here, we combined satellite estimates of vegetation productivity with soil moisture data across water-limited ecosystems of the continental United States (CONUS) to identify a convergent sensitivity of productivity to water availability. Using precipitation, we show that temporal sensitivity is 66% lower than spatial sensitivity overall. Our analysis identified the cause of the difference to be primarily driven by the seasonal variability of water availability, rooting depth, and soil properties. When using soil moisture instead of precipitation, we observed widespread convergence in the spatial and temporal sensitivities—that is, the two sensitivities became much more similar in magnitude across all water-limited ecosystems within CONUS. These results show that overlooking soil hydrology can inflate perceived discrepancies between spatial and temporal vegetation sensitivities, leading to biased projections of ecosystem dynamics under future hydro-climatic change.

Wang, Huiqi [University of California, Berkeley, C↗

Statistical Learning for Nonlinear Model Reduction from Local Simulations of Stochastic and Particle- and Agent-Based Systems

Stochastic physical systems across the sciences that have very high-dimensional state spaces, with a large number of fast degrees of freedom that force direct simulators to proceed by integration steps that are orders of magnitude smaller than events of interests (e.g., particle collisions). Examples range from molecular motion to dynamics of large populations of cells. A grand challenge in the simulation and understanding of such systems is the systematic construction of accurate, interpretable, reduced models, enabling faster simulations, revealing fundamental properties of the dynamics, and predicting phenomena of interest that the original simulator could not reached with sufficient accuracy or within a given computational budget. In this projected we developed novel statistical estimation/machine learning techniques for analyzing and building empirical reduced models for important families of high-dimensional stochastic systems, in particular: - we developed techniques for estimating interaction kernels in interacting particle- and agent-based systems, which are ubiquitous in Physics, Biology and many other sciences, given observed trajectories of the system; - we developed techniques for nonlinear model reduction for high-dimensional stochastic systems that have a small number of unknown, nonlinear slow variables, and a large number of fast modes, that are possibly of large magnitude, given observed short trajectories of the system in the form of bursts of trajectories from different initial conditions; - we developed novel techniques for estimating linear dynamical systems on graphs when both the dynamics and the underlying graph are unknown, and we have a sparse set of space-time observations; - we considered the problem of estimating an unknown nonlinear observation function of a standard process (e.g. Brownian motion), so that we can recognized if an observed dynamics is "just" a nonlinear version of a known dynamics; we also developed benchmarks for learning algorithms aimed at learning and classifying diffusion processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Weak-form inference for hybrid dynamical systems in ecology

Species subject to predation and environmental threats commonly exhibit variable periods of population boom and bust over long timescales. Understanding and predicting such behaviour, especially given the inherent heterogeneity and stochasticity of exogenous driving factors over short timescales, is an ongoing challenge. A modelling paradigm gaining popularity in the ecological sciences for such multi-scale effects is to couple short-term continuous dynamics to long-term discrete updates. We develop a data-driven method utilizing weak-form equation learning to extract such hybrid governing equations for population dynamics and to estimate the requisite parameters using sparse intermittent measurements of the discrete and continuous variables. The method produces a set of short-term continuous dynamical system equations parametrized by long-term variables, and long-term discrete equations parametrized by short-term variables, allowing direct assessment of interdependencies between the two timescales. We demonstrate the utility of the method on a variety of ecological scenarios and provide extensive tests using models previously derived for epizootics experienced by the North American spongy moth ( Lymantria dispar dispar ).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

helios: An R package to process heating and cooling degrees for GCAM

helios is an open-source R package that estimates population-weighted heating and cooling degree-hours (HDH and CDH) and degree-days (HDD and CDD) at various temporal (e.g., energy dispatch segments, monthly, yearly) and spatial scales (e.g., U.S. states, global political regions, countries). The degree hour and degree day outputs from helios are used to inform electricity demand load in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) as well as in GCAM-USA (which is the version of GCAM with U.S. state-level details). helios uses a workflow with four steps: processing raw data; calculating heating and cooling degrees; visualizing performance diagnostics; and outputing results in various formats. There are two sources of widely-used climate data compatible with helios: (1) hourly climate data with 12-km resolution that are dynamically downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and projected using a thermal global warming (TGW) approach; and (2) daily climate data with 0.5-degree resolution from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) that is bias-adjusted and statistical downscaled by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). In summary, helios is a model that standardizes methodology of heating and cooling degrees-hours and degree-days using publicly available data and advance the understanding of the impact of spatial and temporal temperature variability on building energy services.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cislunar Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit for Human Space Exploration

In order to conduct sustained human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), spacecraft systems are designed to operate in a series of missions of increasing complexity. Regardless of the destination, Moon, Mars, asteroids or beyond, there is a substantial set of common objectives that must be met. Many orbit characterization studies have endeavored to evaluate the potential locations in cislunar space that are favorable for meeting common human exploration objectives in a stepwise approach. Multiple studies, by both NASA and other international space agencies, have indicated that Earth-­‐moon libration point orbits are attractive candidates for staging operations in the proving ground and beyond. In particular, the Near Rectilinear Orbit (NRO) has been demonstrated to meet multi-­‐mission and multi-­‐destination architectural constraints. However, a human mission to a selected NRO presents a variety of new challenges for mission planning. While a growing number of robotic missions have completed successful operations to various specific libration point orbits, human missions have never been conducted to orbits of this class. Human missions have unique challenges that differ significantly from robotic missions, including a lower tolerance for mission risk and additional operational constraints that are associated only with human spacecraft. In addition, neither robotic nor human missions have been operated in the NRO regime specifically, and NROs exhibit dynamical characteristics that can differ significantly as compared to other halo orbits. Finally, multi-­‐body orbits, such as libration point orbits, are identified to exist in a simplified orbit model known as the Circular Restricted Three Body Problem (CRTBP) and must then be re-­‐solved in the full ephemeris model. As a result, the behavior of multi-­‐body orbits cannot be effectively characterized within the classical two-­‐body orbit dynamics framework more familiar to the human spaceflight community. In fact, a given NRO is not identified by a set of Keplerian orbit parameters, and a valid epoch specific state vector must be first obtained from a multi-body dynamical model. In this paper, the significant performance and operational challenges of conducting human missions to the NRO are evaluated. First, a systematic process for generating full ephemeris based ballistic NROs of various families is outlined to demonstrate the relative ease in which a multi-­‐revolution orbit can be found for any epoch and for various orbit geometries. In the Earth-­‐Moon system, NROs, which are halo orbits with close passage over a lunar pole, can exist with respect to libration point 1 (L1) or libration point 2 (L2) and are either from a North or South family orbit class with respect to the ecliptic. Second, the ability to maintain the orbit over the lifetime of a habitat mission by applying a reliable station-keeping strategy is investigated. The NRO, while similar to the quasi-­‐halo orbits that the Artemis mission flew, requires an updated station keeping strategy. This is due to several dynamical differences such as the increased relative stability of the NRO compared to other halo orbits and the close passage over the lunar surface as shown in Figure 1. Multiple station-keeping strategies are being investigated to ensure a human spacecraft remains on a predictable path. As the NRO is not described in simple two-­‐body parameters, analysis must determine the best strategy for targeting a reference NRO as well as how closely a future state should be constrained. In addition, costs will be minimized by determining maneuver directionality based on an identified pattern in the optimal station-keeping solutions or an analytically derived relationship. The candidate station-keeping algorithm must be stable and robust to environmental and vehicle uncertainties as well to navigation estimation and flight control execution errors. To that end, navigation accuracies, the impact on the station-keeping execution errors as well as other vehicle uncertainties need to be assessed. Starting with Orion, current navigation accuracies are evaluated and then navigation requirements are derived assuming a desired station-keeping propellant budget. Third, the performance requirements to and from the NRO are evaluated. Important parameters for developing expected propellant costs include epoch of operation, size and type of NRO, Earth departure and return constraints, as well as abort or early-­‐return capability. Finally, rendezvous and proximity operations are vital aspects of multi-­‐mission human exploration endeavors. The ability to conduct rendezvous and the associated propellant costs are assessed as well as the impacts of various profile assumptions including the location within the NRO the rendezvous is performed. The results of these studies will influence plans for international cooperation on both nearer term proving ground missions and beyond.

Whitley, Ryan↗

Modeling and Impact of Hyperloop Technology on the Electricity Grid

This paper provides an overview of hyperloop technologies, including a brief discussion of key components of a hyperloop system that determine the electric power requirements as a function of time. At-scale hyperloop systems do not yet exist, so a model was used to generate a set of load profiles for conceptual hyperloop realizations at four locations in the United States: two systems in California and one each in Colorado and Ohio. In all four cases, the modeled hyperloop load profiles included pulses in both active and reactive power. Grid modeling was performed to estimate the grid impacts and for dis-cussing grid integration challenges. The paper discusses how energy storage systems might be used to eliminate the pulsating load characteristics or significantly reduce it to accommodate current grid planning guidelines

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Parallelized reliability estimation of reconfigurable computer networks

A parallelized system, ASSURE, for computing the reliability of embedded avionics flight control systems which are able to reconfigure themselves in the event of failure is described. ASSURE accepts a grammar that describes a reliability semi-Markov state-space. From this it creates a parallel program that simultaneously generates and analyzes the state-space, placing upper and lower bounds on the probability of system failure. ASSURE is implemented on a 32-node Intel iPSC/860, and has achieved high processor efficiencies on real problems. Through a combination of improved algorithms, exploitation of parallelism, and use of an advanced microprocessor architecture, ASSURE has reduced the execution time on substantial problems by a factor of one thousand over previous workstation implementations. Furthermore, ASSURE's parallel execution rate on the iPSC/860 is an order of magnitude faster than its serial execution rate on a Cray-2 supercomputer. While dynamic load balancing is necessary for ASSURE's good performance, it is needed only infrequently; the particular method of load balancing used does not substantially affect performance.

Nicol, David M.↗

Evaluation of chromatographic resins for high efficacy separation of radium from chemical analogues

The separation of Radium (Ra) from interfering chemical analogues is of major importance for both the accurate measurement of Ra-226 in environmental samples and the preparation of radium targets destined for medical isotope production. The adsorption behavior of Ra, Barium (Ba), and Strontium (Sr) was investigated on multiple crown-ether-based proprietary extraction chromatographic resins developed by TrisKem Int. Among these, the TK101 resin, characterized by a novel room-temperature ionic liquid (RTIL) dual extractant–solvent system, demonstrated enhanced affinity and selectivity, particularly at low acid concentrations, achieving a D w of 3477 ± 73 for Ra in 0.04 M HNO₃, whereas the maximum Ra D w obtained with the traditional Sr resin in 8 M HNO 3 was only 12.33 ± 0.4. In 0.04 M HNO 3 , a Ra distribution ratio (D w ) of 776 was achieved within 1 min, indicating rapid uptake kinetics. The adsorption capacities were estimated at 19.6 ± 0.1 mg/g for Ba and 12.0 ± 0.2 mg/g for Sr. However, competing alkali metals significantly reduced alkaline earth metal uptake, indicating that the TK101 resin is best suited for radium purification following a preconcentration step to minimize matrix effects in high salinity samples. Dynamic column studies confirmed the strong chromatographic performance of the TK101 resin, with no significant Ba or Sr breakthrough in the Ra fraction and a Ra recovery of 87 ± 2.8%. These results demonstrate the potential of the TK101 resin for selective radium separation in analytical and radiochemical applications.

and nuclear chemistry↗

A multi-criteria land suitability assessment of field allocation decisions for switchgrass

With the goal of evaluating biomass resource availability in certain regions in the United States, the Department of Energy, Department of Agriculture, Environmental Protection Agency, national laboratories, and Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, performed a resource analysis study, 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 1: Economic Availability of Feedstocks, using POLYSYS model to estimate biomass potential. The study provided county- and state-level biomass potential projections, with biomass feedstock production estimates and suitability assessment of lands acreage likely to transition to energy crops. For this analysis, we estimate biomass supply by year 2028, more specifically, lands acreage transition to switchgrass in the Midwest of the United States, across 50 counties in 3 states (Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado). We propose a multi-criteria site suitability framework, to determine the potential acreage and production for switchgrass, at the field level. Site selection criteria span agronomic and ecosystem services such as previous land cover, crop rotation, soil water holding capacity, crop productivity, field efficiency, topography, soil organic matter, soil leaching propensity, distance to surface water bodies, and soil erosivity. Efficient agricultural field selection for dedicated energy crops field allocation is critical to evaluate biomass resource availability, and it is our position that estimation at the field level would provide a more accurate and useful estimation to support an emerging bioeconomy. Using field suitability scores and county-level assessments, we model land allocation decision for energy crop in the future, estimating the spatial distribution of dynamics of energy crop adoption with priority to fields scoring the highest. Additionally, compared with POLYSYS results from the report mentioned above, our method shows good performance overall, with about 2% and 1.2% of difference in switchgrass acreage allocation and crop production, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗